The Stock Market thread

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Guessing this had to do with the impressions after the vote about future cuts and the 7 who said no more cuts this year.

It has to do with inflation.

[Edward64]

Markets must like the Fed move and future thinking. All 3 markets are up strong. Notably, Nasdaq is up 1.10%+ right now.


Also, Nvidia is making a nice move ...

Nvidia on Thursday said it will invest $5 billion in Intel, throwing its heft behind the struggling U.S. chip foundry, but stopped short of giving Intel a crucial manufacturing deal. The pact, which also includes a plan for Intel and Nvidia to jointly develop PC and data center chips, represents a potential risk to Taiwan’s TSMC. TSMC currently manufactures Nvidia’s flagship processors, business that the world’s most valuable company could one day extend to Intel. AMD, which competes with Intel for supplying chips to data centers, also stands to lose thanks to Nvidia’s backing.

Shares of Intel surged more than 32% in premarket trading, while Nvidia was up more than 3%. AMD slipped nearly 4%, while U.S.-listed shares of TSMC slid 2%.

Sucks for TSMC (and Taiwan) but can see it help the US based foundry business, lessening Taiwan's strategic importance.


(But even if TSMC has a viable US competitor in 5-10 years, Taiwan just because of its physical location, will still be a US strategic partner in containing China. FWIW, I've read Xi wants China to be able/ready to invade/take on Taiwan/US by 2027).

[Arles]

Trimming some of my growth today. QQQ is up 6% since 9/2 and my goal is to get back to 20% cash in each of my growth accounts (at 18% now).

[JPhillips]

Someone online pointed out that NVIDIA is a company that relies on government approval of export deals and they've given a company partially owned by the government 5 bil.

This is the way things work in the US now. The boss has to get his taste.

[RainMaker]

Statism is back baby!

[RainMaker]

lol

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Someone online pointed out that NVIDIA is a company that relies on government approval of export deals and they've given a company partially owned by the government 5 bil.

This is the way things work in the US now. The boss has to get his taste.

Saw a report that the government "asked" NVIDIA to invest in Intel.

[JPhillips]

Just not releasing data now at the BLS.

[Edward64]

... and Nvidia (up +3.97%) and AI saves the day ... again. Obviously, a lot can happen but IMO Nvidia is as good of a bet as any right now.

$100B investment in OpenAI
$5B in Intel
$300B OpenAI deal with Oracle


Jerome to speak Tue, so that should be interesting. I hope he bring a little more clarity on possible remaining rate cuts (up to 2) this year.

Haiku for the day

High-flying stocks rise,
Fed cuts rates to help the rest,
Uncertainty.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Jerome to speak Tue, so that should be interesting. I hope he bring a little more clarity on possible remaining rate cuts (up to 2) this year.

Thanks for nothing, Jerome.

“We do look at overall financial conditions, and we ask ourselves whether our policies are affecting financial conditions in a way that is what we’re trying to achieve,” Powell said. “But you’re right, by many measures, for example, equity prices are fairly highly valued.”
:
Though Powell noted the lofty equity values, he said this is “not a time of elevated financial stability risks.”

Stocks took a turn lower after Powell’s comments, with major averages all trading in the red.

But on the bright side ... if comparing to Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" comment in Dec 1996 and Dot-com bust in Mar 2000, this gives us about 3-3.5 more years of bull run !!

[Edward64]

Stronger than expected GDP.

I read elsewhere markets are now fretting if this means Fed may not do (as many) rate cuts as hoped. Currently CME Group says 87% for .25 cut on Oct 29 but not sure if it's been updated since the Thu report.

GDP Revision Shows US Economy Grew More Than Previously Thought in Second Quarter

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.8% in the second quarter, rebounding from a 0.6% decline in the first according to revised figures released Thursday.

Forecasters had expected growth to stay at 3.3% according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

The increased estimate was largely due to an upward revision in consumer spending, which rose at a 2.5% annual rate over the quarter, the BEA said.
:
Consumer spending is the main engine of economic growth, responsible for 68% of the GDP.

However, experts have cautioned the overall GDP is less of a reliable barometer of economic health than usual because of shifts in trade policy. Imports surged in the first quarter as businesses stocked up on inventory in anticipation of tariffs. That tanked the GDP figures because imports are counted against the GDP growth rate. In the second quarter, imports plunged after tariffs went into effect, boosting the GDP on paper.

It's fair to ask when tariffs will be fully reflected in GDP and Inflation. Over the past couple cycles I've read the nos. don't fully reflect the tariff drama because not enough elapsed time. I don't know the right answer but in my head, I'm going to say Q4 nos should be pretty indicative (e.g. BF & Christmas sales are a bust)

[albionmoonlight]

My friend just found out that his software company is being bought by a private equity firm. He really likes the job and felt loyalty to the company but as you might expect the discussions he was having about a pay raise/promotion are “on hold“ and there will be “restructuring.“

I know there was talk earlier in this thread about employers looking askance at employees changing jobs to get better pay. But loyalty just isn’t rewarded. If we are going to have active and efficient markets (which we should) then employees need to be as agile as possible because you know they are always viewed as expendable as possible.

[Edward64]

Tough market out there.

IMO the company/employee loyalty (both ways) for non-government entities have been trending down since the 90s.

[Edward64]

PCE is sticky but in line with expectations. No surprises ...

Sticky inflation reading unlikely to knock Fed off course for more rate cuts

A fresh reading from the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge showed prices are still sticky, but the report isn’t likely to take the central bank off its course for more rate cuts in 2025 — especially if the job market continues to remain soft.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on a “core” basis, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed inflation rose 2.9% for the month of August. That was in line with expectations, holding the same level as in July.

There's a relief rally in the markets right now, prob due to the sentiments below

“Inflation may not be reversing, but it’s not reaccelerating,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

“The economy is percolating but not overheating," she added. "Barring a major upside surprise from next week’s jobs report, the Fed should remain on course to deliver another rate cut in late October.”

But then more drama next week with the shutdown showdown. T-5

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

My friend just found out that his software company is being bought by a private equity firm. He really likes the job and felt loyalty to the company but as you might expect the discussions he was having about a pay raise/promotion are “on hold“ and there will be “restructuring.“

I know there was talk earlier in this thread about employers looking askance at employees changing jobs to get better pay. But loyalty just isn’t rewarded. If we are going to have active and efficient markets (which we should) then employees need to be as agile as possible because you know they are always viewed as expendable as possible.

Companies preaching loyalty is about keeping wages and costs down in most cases. The data backs that up.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Tough market out there.

IMO the company/employee loyalty (both ways) for non-government entities have been trending down since the 90s.

Except that the system continues to hold up employee loyalty as something to be proud of, even expected while disloyalty or job jumping is almost immoral

While company loyalty to employees is talked about like a Norman Rockwell painting harkening to a different time from long ago and not to be expected but instead seen in hallmark movies

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Tough market out there.

IMO the company/employee loyalty (both ways) for non-government entities have been trending down since the 90s.

Tell me about it. I am not crazy about working for the private equity company that bought my company out. My former owner reached out to me to let me know one of his friends was looking and in desperate need of an employee. I gave him a call. More work, less pay. He just can't understand why he can't keep good people. I let him know why.

[Passacaglia]

I'm in a spades league with people at my former employer. Yesterday, my partner doesn't show up. My opponents try to reschedule, and her teams status is unknown. Looks like there were 300 or so - all kicked out that day. Crazy, but I guess I'm glad I got out when I did.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

My friend just found out that his software company is being bought by a private equity firm. He really likes the job and felt loyalty to the company but as you might expect the discussions he was having about a pay raise/promotion are “on hold“ and there will be “restructuring.“

I know there was talk earlier in this thread about employers looking askance at employees changing jobs to get better pay. But loyalty just isn’t rewarded. If we are going to have active and efficient markets (which we should) then employees need to be as agile as possible because you know they are always viewed as expendable as possible.

I'll never understand how the private equity stuff isn't just embezzlement.

[flere-imsaho]

Embezzlement is taking and hiding that you're taking. With PE, there's no hiding going on.

[JPhillips]

ADP, after August revisions, now has two consecutive months at negative job growth.

[Edward64]

Another good week for the markets. Fri started off strong and then Nasdaq faded. But the recent trend has been fantastic, markets hitting/near all time highs and trending up so far.

I really don't know what's going on with the markets (not unusual). I think markets are just thinking heck with tariffs & Trump erratic policies, and let's just keep the AI, Nvidia etc. gravy train going.

Will there be a correction, crash etc. My magic 8-ball prediction

Spoiler

No prediction, but one rule is don't try to time the market so just keeping 6-8 months of living expenses in HYSA

[Edward64]

It's scary how OpenAI recent announcements/deals are driving the markets. The below 3 had massive hikes after the announcement.

OpenAI + AMD
OpenAI + Nvidia
OpenAI + Oracle

The stakes of OpenAI's dealmaking

The flurry of agreements also showcases Altman's strategic approach and a circular, incestuous style of dealmaking that shrewdly places chipmaking rivals in the business of advancing his business.

Both offensive and defensive at once, OpenAI's intertwining makes it, if not "too big to fail," about as close as it could be.

AI is definitely here to stay. The question really is Open AI going to maintain its lead & momentum. If and/or when OpenAI fumbles, how much of the market will it take with it? OpenAI is not a publicly traded company, so it's got more leeway with financials as it promises her investors the future.

Reminds me a little of the Japanese Keiretsu and Korean Chaebol. Hope US financial media comes up with something better than a "circle, incestuous jerk".

[Arles]

My theory on the massive run on gold prices is that a lot of hedge funds felt the market was "frothy" back in 2024. They've been slowly reducing their equity stakes. Instead of choosing bonds (which have been bad for a while), they pivoted to commodities like Gold (and silver/other metals to a lesser extent). I have felt gold was undervalued since 2022 so kept a consistent 10-15% stake. It's up to around 25% now.

My prediction is that if we get a small correction in the next 2-3 months, money will start leaving gold and going back to equities. I feel like this makes a lot more sense than the doom and gloom on currency on Twitter. Currency has been shit since before covid, that doesn't explain gold going from $2200 to $4000 in 18 months.

[RainMaker]

The dollar is down 10% this year and inflation is coming in hard. That is why gold is up.

[Arles]

Inflation is the lowest it has been in 4 years. If that was the trigger, gold would have skyrocketed in 2022 when it was 8%. Gold actually was down from mid 2021 to late 2022. This is pure manipulation by China, big funds and others to move off bonds for parking cash and head to gold. Basically, gold has the same (or less) risk than bonds and has a significantly higher return. This started back in late 2023 and now everyone is getting on board.

When funds decide to get back into the market for equities (I'm guessing after a small correction of some sort), gold will tank.

[RainMaker]

The dollar being down 10% isn't because China is manipulating anything. We passed a massive bill that gave huge tax cuts to the wealthy and exacerbated the deficit by trillions. That weakens your currency.

As for equities, 40% of our GDP growth was tied to AI. Only one company is making money from AI and they have to fund the other companies to keep throwing money at it. Barring some insane breakthrough in the field and someone figuring out how to make money on it, it's a huge bubble that even people in the field think is going to burst. Not to mention the rise in unemployment, consumer debt, and the hundreds to thousands of dollars every person has had to pay in new taxes through the tariffs.

Maybe things are great but even the people in charge are bracing for some rough waters ahead and looting what they can before it comes crashing down.

[Arles]

All that stuff has been going on since Trump's first term - it was even worse in 2021-2022, yet gold didn't budget. I think it's clear that money is flooding out of equities and bonds to metals like gold since 2024:

[RainMaker]

Gold didn't budge because the dollar was strong. The dollar is no longer strong.

[Arles]

Gold isn't going up 100% in two years because the dollar is slightly weaker. The dollar tanked more between 2021 and and early 2023 and gold didn't budge. Gold also went up significantly in 2024 and the dollar went from 101 to 107 from Dec 2023 to Jan 2025. The dollar movement has been almost irrelevant to the price of gold for the past 40+ years.

The dollar dropped from 120 in 2002 to 80.85 in 2004. Gold went from $330 to $400 in those two years. This is pure market manipulation by big money deciding to park their non-equity money in gold or silver instead of crappy yielding bonds because they think the market has been near a top since 2024.

[RainMaker]

The dollar reached one of the highest points in decades in 2022. I don't know where you're getting your data from but it's wrong.

[RainMaker]

Just click the 5 year and you can see everyone pouring their money into the dollar. You can see this year it falling off a cliff.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.DXY

[Arles]

It’s pointless to argue with you. The dollar dropped significantly from 2002 and 2007 and gold barely moved. It’s dropped a tiny amount since 2024 started with 3% inflation and yet gold has doubled. It’s clear that the state of the dollar is not a significant factor in the price of gold or it would have run like crazy from 2004-2006 and it barely moved. But believe what you want.

[RainMaker]

I'm believing what the actual data says instead of what you want it to be. It has dropped 10% in 9 months which is considerable.

And yes, the dollar dropped after Bush came in when we drastically cut interest rates and printed a ton of money. The effective rate went from 6% to 1% in like 2 years.

You aren't arguing with me, you're arguing with the data that is readily available.

[Arles]

But if the dollar dropped and rates dropped, shouldn't gold have run up? That's basically what you are saying is happening now, correct? Yet Gold stayed flat. Gold was at $2K in Jan of 2024. From Jan to September 2024: inflation dropped, Trump wasn't elected (or even favored), no tariffs and the dollar was strong. The results? Gold rose almost 40% - the highest increase in decades. There was no fiscal reason for this outside of funds and countries like China deciding to move money out of the frothy stock market and poor yielding bond market into gold.

Here's more data for the market manipulation of gold, but keep hanging on that 10% drop in the dollar (which is surging again now) as the reason. This started in early 2024 - well before Trump, tariffs, the dollar dropping or any other reason you've been championing:

[RainMaker]

The safe haven in the 2000's was housing. Do you not remember the giant bubble that was created in that decade when everyone dumped tons of money into the housing market? It was considered safer than gold because housing prices could only go up! They couldn't write mortgages fast enough to keep up with demand from investors. We had a huge recession because of it.

There isn't manipulation going on. The President made some dumb moves to enrich his friends and we're all suffering the consequences of it. Every expert on economics said this would happen.

[albionmoonlight]

Two Bezos Post headlines about how the GOP is content to just wait out the Dems on the shutdown.

Which means that the GOP is feeling the pressure and starting to leak stories about how its actually the Dems who are feeling the pressure and need to start talks.

The next missed federal paychecks will be the 24th. I imagine we'll have a deal shortly before then that's pretty much a GOP cave designed to let both parties save face.

[NobodyHere]

The markets are being completely unfair to Trump's Presidency today.

[albionmoonlight]

And now the WH claims to be starting the long-threatened firings. The uncharacteristic Dem refusal to cave is really starting to panic the GOP.

I think we will see a nice market rebound as it becomes apparent that the government will reopen under the Democrat’s terms.

[JPhillips]

Somebody cashed out 200 mil worth of crypto shorts moments before everything went to shit today.

[JPhillips]

More

SOMEONE JUST OPENED A #BITCOIN SHORT 30 MINS BEFORE TRUMP'S TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT AND JUST CLOSED WITH $88,000,000 PROFIT

HE OPENED THIS ACCOUNT TODAY

[Ksyrup]

Obvious.

[flere-imsaho]

It's frustrating to know that pretty much zero of the obvious criming over two Trump terms will never really be resolved.

[Ksyrup]

Trump pulled back on the China tariffs now that everyone made their money on Friday.

[JPhillips]

China has the upper hand.

"Chinese shipments to the U.S. plunged 27% in September, but overall exports rose 8.3%. The World Bank now expects China’s economy to grow 4.8% in 2025, while it downgraded U.S. growth to 1.4%"

[Lathum]

They had the upper hand the day one of the dumbest humans to ever walk the planet was somehow reelected by an army of idiots.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

China has the upper hand.

America's century of humiliation has only just begun.

[Arles]

Got up to about 20% cash last week (10/7) and am waiting to deploy some. From a technical standpoint, a lot of stocks I like are getting close to support and buy zones. But I'm not in a rush. I think there's a lot of chop this month (which may be why I buy more high dividend than growth as the DOW has already been pretty beaten up).

[RainMaker]

Golden Age!

"Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025," per Harvard.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) October 17, 2025

[GrantDawg]

Eh, what does Havard know.