2014 FIFA World Cup

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by bbgunn

Definitely some of the players were paid off. The last five or six goals, it looked like only Julio Cesar was giving any effort to stop those goals. The Brazilian back line were standing around doing nothing, like policemen in New Orleans.

You want to tell me that Germany is that good? They couldn't even beat Ghana! They should have pasted the U.S. 4-0 or 5-0.

Horseshit. You don't rig a game to lose by 5, 6 or 7 goals. End of story.

This is a team that obviously had a meltdown on the field. Shit happens. It's happened before in other sports. Sometimes things just snowball against you and everything goes wrong. The Lakers lost Game 7 in 2008 by a whopping 41 points. The Bears beat the Redskins 73-0 in the NFL title game. Rigged? No.

Frankly, you should be ashamed of yourself for suggesting that the players are on the take with no proof.

[Logan]

I found a Forbes article which valued the Brazil WC roster at being worth $718MM. Now, that's including the value of transfer fees so it's not what each of these guys are actually pulling in. But with that in mind, how much would these guys need to get paid off to make it worth it to them financially even before considering the humiliation and shame they'll feel in their country?

[bbgunn]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Frankly, you should be ashamed of yourself for suggesting that the players are on the take with no proof.

Ashamed? I didn't blaspheme God. I didn't sleep with anybody's wife. I was just making an argument.

And who cares how much money they make? Everybody wants more money, right? And they'll do anything to get it. It's a greedy world.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Toddzilla

This didn't get the credit it deserves - well played, good sir.

Agreed! On the plus side, all the poor moderators of the SI Games forums who have to put up with people shouting "it's a bug!" now have something they can use to shut those complaints down.

Originally Posted by bbgunn

I have a hard time believing that even this Brazil team, which undoubtedly is not as good as the 1994-2002 version, is so mentally weak that they would just collapse after a goal in the 11th minute. We're talking about one of the most passionate soccer nations in the world.

It's not so much about a mental collapse through emotion as it's an inability to respond to an opponent that's ruthlessly exploiting your weaknesses.

Can you imagine the Heat losing LeBron and Battier, and going out and losing to the Spurs in the Finals 132-52? In Miami? Didn't think so.

If Neymar is LeBron then Thiago Silva is Bosh, only more important.

And even with no Thiago Silva, and with David Luis as captain, the defense was supposed to be the stronger part of this Brazil team. How much difference does a captain really make? It's not cricket.

It's not that Silva's the captain, it's that he's the most tactically astute defender they had. David Luiz is a good player and all, but it's telling that his club mainly plays him as a defensive midfielder, so as to take advantage of his offensive capabilities and minimize the impact of his defensive lapses. When you are expecting David Luiz to be able to coordinate his defenders to adjust to the fact that a team as good as Germany has "solved" their defensive strategy, you are in real trouble.

And while Brazil had a good defense coming into the tournament, it certainly wasn't a great defense. Both fullbacks were more attackers than anything else, and there were plenty questions about the defensive midfield.

Definitely some of the players were paid off. The last five or six goals, it looked like only Julio Cesar was giving any effort to stop those goals. The Brazilian back line were standing around doing nothing, like policemen in New Orleans.

Paid off by whom? Also, you realize each of these guys (with few exceptions) make somewhere between $50,000 and $500,000 PER WEEK, right? Assuming any of these guys would be open to throwing a Semi Final in what is almost certainly the only World Cup to be held in their country in their playing careers, you'd be looking at tens of millions per player for them to assume such risk.

You want to tell me that Germany is that good? They couldn't even beat Ghana! They should have pasted the U.S. 4-0 or 5-0.

Germany is one of those teams who play just as well as they need to play, and the U.S. game was a good case in point. And Brazil just had an epic collapse. Collapses happen to teams all the time, this was just an extreme case.

[bbgunn]

OK, you guys win. I'm sorry if I offended anyone. I was just trying to make an argument.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by bbgunn

And who cares how much money they make? Everybody wants more money, right? And they'll do anything to get it. It's a greedy world.

OK, let's estimate this conservatively.

Let's say you only have to bribe the starting 11 (going on your "observation" that by the end all the guys on the pitch were "standing around").

Let's say that the penalty for being caught is a 1-year ban and loss of earnings (which is conservative, given that a lifetime ban might not be out of the question, and also given that many clubs, especially those operating at the highest level, would not want the risk of a player known to throw important games).

Let's say, conservatively, that each of those starting eleven earn $250,000/week, or $13M/year. So the one-year salary lost for the starting 11 would be $143M.

Let's assume a bribe would need to be only twice what they stand to lose. We're now up to $286M.

Who is going to pony up that money to have Brazil throw this game, and what would be their motivation?

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by bbgunn

Ashamed? I didn't blaspheme God. I didn't sleep with anybody's wife. I was just making an argument.

And who cares how much money they make? Everybody wants more money, right? And they'll do anything to get it. It's a greedy world.

When you think about how much money you'd have to pay the multiple players needed to take this kind of dive versus the money they'd earn from being national heroes for winning, your point doesn't even make logical sense. The betting "action" would have to be so large to recoup the investment that it would throw off red flags long before the match ever started. (EDIT - see post above by flere)

Money is not the only motivating force in this world BTW.

Finally, when you throw matches, you don't throw them 7-1. You make the loss plausible.

So, in short, you're accusing people of doing something wrong that doesn't even make logical sense. Essentially, you're as being a douchebag and for that you should be ashamed.

[Easy Mac]

Unless I'm missing something, we pretty much had this game in the Super Bowl this year. Seattle scored 7 times before Denver managed one.

The weird thing about this game is that the collapse came so early. Normally, even if a team has a 20 minute run on goals, it seems like it happens around the middle of the second half, so there isn't as long to play it out. As it was happening it was amazing/amusing, but after another 1/2 hour, there was still 30 minutes to go... it was fairly painful to watch.

[bhlloy]

And even if they wanted to do it, there is no way they would do it in a WC semi final. Just way way too high profile a game, that's insanity to try and fix something with that many eyes on it.

I also don't think the pattern of the game bears it out. What would that bet have been? Correct score or total number of goals would have meant that oscars late goal was significant, so was Germany in on it too? And if it was just spread/over under pretty sure they didn't need to lose by six or seven.

Just doesn't stand up to any logic for me. On par with some of the worst conspiracy theories out there

[cuervo72]

Ashamed is a little much. It's a friggin' soccer game played by friggin' soccer players. Oohhh, he besmirched the honor of the Most High and Exhalted Beautiful Game....

And holy shit, of all the posters to call someone else a douchebag.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Ashamed is a little much. It's a friggin' soccer game played by friggin' soccer players. Oohhh, he besmirched the honor of the Most High and Exhalted Beautiful Game....

And holy shit, of all the posters to call someone else a douchebag.

I didn't call him a douchebag. I said he's being a douchebag. And I would know, wouldn't I? And so would you!

[cuervo72]

If calling someone out for being bitter, angry, and sanctimonious makes me a douchebag then color me guilty.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

If calling someone out for being bitter, angry, and sanctimonious makes me a douchebag then color me guilty.

Sanctimonious only. Bitter and angry? Not in this case.

Consider yourself colored.

[Butter]

Despite bringing it up, I agree with those who are saying it is highly unlikely due to the income the Brazilian players already make and the shame they are bringing upon themselves... I was complaining to my wife that it was clearly fixed, but all of your reasoning made a lot of sense.

HOWEVER, to be a contrarian, here is why it is maybe just a teensy bit more likely than "impossible":

1. You don't have to bribe the whole team, just a couple of key defenders. If they are not holding their line or marking like they should against a team of Germany's caliber, you get what you got yesterday. (Frankly, you get it whether the players are on the take or not.)

2. The high profile nature of the game, and large amounts of existing betting on it make it less likely for odd betting patterns to be detected.

3. Having already lost their 2 key players, could make a couple of players more likely to say "we're not going to win anyway, so what does it matter if I cash in".

4. Losing in such a humiliating fashion makes it less likely that people would suspect a fix, especially in such a high profile game. Or once they got the ball rolling, they couldn't stop it. Germany doesn't have to be in on it at all, nor does the ref.

Just some points for discussion or dismissal.

[Barkeep49]

I think these players will all be shamed for the rest of their lives in Brazil for what happened. I don't think anyone is willing to endure that stigma except for large sums of money, which would have to be GIGANTIC given how much money the players have. Even if we're only talking one or two defenders.

[Blackadar]

Not to mention that if it was only a couple of defenders, they would have been yanked after the 2nd or 3rd goal. It was pretty obvious that Germany found and ruthlessly exploited a massive flaw in the Brazilian defense and midfield - the breakdowns were on both wings and up the middle. Numerous players were dispossessed of the ball, out of position or outright confused.

Really, if you wanted to throw a game, you'd only have to bribe one guy - the goalie. And given he didn't have too much of a chance on most of the goals that were scored, that's unlikely.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

which would have to be GIGANTIC given how much money the players have.

I don't get this - how many pro athletes here in the US switch teams for relatively small sums? You're telling me that a few hundred thousand or a mil or two wouldn't be enough for some of these guys? You could make way more than that back on the bets.

How sophisticated were the soccer gambling rings a few years back?

[Blackadar]

On to today's game, which looks to be quite an entertaining one. I'd like to see the Dutch win just so the Argentinians can't win on Brazilian soil. That kind of stuff could start a war!

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I don't get this - how many pro athletes here in the US switch teams for relatively small sums? You're telling me that a few hundred thousand or a mil or two wouldn't be enough for some of these guys? You could make way more than that back on the bets.

Again:

1. It's nothing compared to their club salaries. In fact, their bonuses from the Brasilian FA for progressing in / winning the WC are probably more.

2. In general, penalties for players found to be match fixing have started with a 1-year suspension on the minimum, but many have just been flat lifetime bans. For the Brasilian players, the latter would amount to lost wages in the tens of millions, or more, to say nothing of endorsements.

3. A top international footballer will, in the very best case scenario, play in exactly ONE World Cup in his home country. To win a World Cup being hosted in your home country is, quite simply, the pinnacle of achievement for these players.

How sophisticated were the soccer gambling rings a few years back?

Quite. But a) they have tended to target officials, especially from more poor / corrupt countries / league and b) when they have targeted players, it has been those in lesser leagues where the pay isn't as high.

The exception to all that is Italy, of course.

[cartman]

Well, speaking of cash bribes, my sole rooting interest now is for Holland to win the whole thing, so I can get that Calcutta auction moolah!

[ISiddiqui]

I'm going to go for: meltdown. I don't think the emotionalism had anything to do with it (otherwise, this would have been seen coming and Brazil had been playing pretty well defensively up until this game). Heck, in the first 20 minutes of the match, while Germany scored on a corner, Brazil looked very good... then the wheels came off. I don't know if it was more a weakness exploited (I'd imagine someone else would have found that weakness first - or maybe Thiago Silva was that key as he alone mitigated whatever weakness it was), as much as a complete meltdown, especially after Goal 2.

[bhlloy]

Yeah I tend to think that the meltdown after the first and second goals will be a case study for sports psychologists going forward. Just a team with so much pressure and expectation on them that completely cracked.

[Easy Mac]

Outside of it being highly unlikely that there are 2 blowout semifinals, is there really a great reason to think the same thing that happened to Brazil won't happen to Argentina? Brazil were missing Silva, Argentina are missing Di Maria. Brazil pretty much won ugly every game, Argentina is doing the same. In the group stage, the Dutch looked dominant for a game, middling for a game, and good for a game, much like the Germans. Outside of Messi still being around and Neymar getting hurt, I'm not sure I see a huge difference in how these games could turn out. Brazil was facing enormous pressure from its fans, but Argentina is facing pretty big pressure to win in its home continent.

I'm predicting 3-1 for The Dutch.

[flere-imsaho]

As for meltdown, one thing I'd assert is that in many sports a meltdown can occur when individuals start trying to do to much as the overall cohesiveness starts to break down.

See, for instance, cornerbacks/safeties leaving their assignments to "help out".

A well-drilled team can take advantage of these, I'll call them "lapses", to their benefit.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Outside of it being highly unlikely that there are 2 blowout semifinals, is there really a great reason to think the same thing that happened to Brazil won't happen to Argentina? Brazil were missing Silva, Argentina are missing Di Maria.

If I had to bet money, I'd bet it on the Dutch right now, though like you I don't expect a blow out. The loss of Di Maria hurts, of course, but Argentina have still mainly looked like a team waiting for Messi to win their games (much like Brazil was waiting for Neymar to win games).

Germany and Holland are also playing two very different attacking games. Van Gaal has the Dutch playing quite direct, mainly looking for Robben to terrify defenses into defeat. Germany are playing aggressive, though not direct, and essentially exploiting defenses into defeat.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Again:

1. It's nothing compared to their club salaries. In fact, their bonuses from the Brasilian FA for progressing in / winning the WC are probably more.

2. In general, penalties for players found to be match fixing have started with a 1-year suspension on the minimum, but many have just been flat lifetime bans. For the Brasilian players, the latter would amount to lost wages in the tens of millions, or more, to say nothing of endorsements.

3. A top international footballer will, in the very best case scenario, play in exactly ONE World Cup in his home country. To win a World Cup being hosted in your home country is, quite simply, the pinnacle of achievement for these players.

I'll make it clear, I don't think this was gambling at all, I think it was a total meltdown without 2 key players.

But from what I've seen, the "they have enough money, it would take a lot to make a difference to them" argument has had TONS of counter-examples from athletes.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I'll make it clear, I don't think this was gambling at all, I think it was a total meltdown without 2 key players.

But from what I've seen, the "they have enough money, it would take a lot to make a difference to them" argument has had TONS of counter-examples from athletes.

But you're talking about with-in socially accepted norms. Look at the pressure for the Heatles to take less money in order to win. Money is one thing, but we're talking money to deal with social stigma which is a whole different ball of wax.

The idea that Cameroon might have thrown games, despite their wealth, I can see. But not with Brazil this World Cup.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I'll make it clear, I don't think this was gambling at all, I think it was a total meltdown without 2 key players.

I get that.

But from what I've seen, the "they have enough money, it would take a lot to make a difference to them" argument has had TONS of counter-examples from athletes.

The example you cite, however, does not involve an illegal (to the game) action. There's a big difference between moving teams for a little more money and accepting a bribe to throw a game that could result in a significant impact to your earning power.

The analog isn't LeBron James moving to Cleveland for an extra $6M (or whatever), it's LeBron James taking a $6M bribe to lose to the Pacers.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

I'll make it clear, I don't think this was gambling at all, I think it was a total meltdown without 2 key players.

But from what I've seen, the "they have enough money, it would take a lot to make a difference to them" argument has had TONS of counter-examples from athletes.

That's not the whole argument, though. It's that it would take way MORE money for players to throw a game that's nearly the pinnacle of their career, IN their home country. How much more money would someone have to make to trade that in for the cash, especially considering that it would have to be significant in comparison to the fat stacks they already make?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

Outside of it being highly unlikely that there are 2 blowout semifinals, is there really a great reason to think the same thing that happened to Brazil won't happen to Argentina? Brazil were missing Silva, Argentina are missing Di Maria. Brazil pretty much won ugly every game, Argentina is doing the same. In the group stage, the Dutch looked dominant for a game, middling for a game, and good for a game, much like the Germans. Outside of Messi still being around and Neymar getting hurt, I'm not sure I see a huge difference in how these games could turn out. Brazil was facing enormous pressure from its fans, but Argentina is facing pretty big pressure to win in its home continent.

I'm predicting 3-1 for The Dutch.

Di Maria isn't a defender like Silva. That's what, likely, messed up Brazil. Also, Argentina still has Messi.

FWIW, I thought in the game against Belgium, Argentina played quite fantastic defensively. I think the Argies pull this one out 1-0, like is their way this WC.

[cartman]

Sneijder wins it on a late free kick on a dubious foul drawn by Robben just outside the box.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Di Maria isn't a defender like Silva. That's what, likely, messed up Brazil. Also, Argentina still has Messi.

This. Maybe Mascherano going down would have the same effect on Argentina's shape in the back, but even that's probably overstating things since Mascherano is past his prime.

[flere-imsaho]

Well, it would appear the riots & unrest some people (not here) predicted would happen in Brazil haven't (or at least I haven't seen any news reports of them).

I wonder if that's because this was such a comprehensive loss, whereas a 1-0 loss on a dubious German score may have.

[Subby]

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Well, it would appear the riots & unrest some people (not here) predicted would happen in Brazil haven't (or at least I haven't seen any news reports of them).

I wonder if that's because this was such a comprehensive loss, whereas a 1-0 loss on a dubious German score may have.

I have to agree with this, I would think most people are still numb from the shock of Brazil was completely dominated. These things usually happen right after, so I doubt there will be much, if anything to come.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Well, it would appear the riots & unrest some people (not here) predicted would happen in Brazil haven't (or at least I haven't seen any news reports of them).

I wonder if that's because this was such a comprehensive loss, whereas a 1-0 loss on a dubious German score may have.

Paraphrasing a quote I saw on ESPN from a German fan who was at the game, "At 7-1 they hated their own team. If it was 2-1 they would have hated us."

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

Well, it would appear the riots & unrest some people (not here) predicted would happen in Brazil haven't (or at least I haven't seen any news reports of them).

I wonder if that's because this was such a comprehensive loss, whereas a 1-0 loss on a dubious German score may have.

I also thought that the whole "Brazil is going to riot" stuff was overplayed and slightly ridiculous. Yes, they care about soccer a lot. Yes, they are pissed the WC cost so much. No, they aren't going to burn the entire country down if they lose - they aren't rabid crazy people.

[MIJB#19]

The difference between 1950 and 2014 is that most Brazilians are young enough to have seen the 2002 World Cup, many already remembered 1994 and quite a lot still remember 1970. In contrast 1950 Brazil was yet to win its first World Cup.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

I also thought that the whole "Brazil is going to riot" stuff was overplayed and slightly ridiculous. Yes, they care about soccer a lot. Yes, they are pissed the WC cost so much. No, they aren't going to burn the entire country down if they lose - they aren't rabid crazy people.

I was more in the "they were rioting before the cup, quieted down while they were in the cup, and now that they are out will they go back to the pre-cup situation?" camp.

[MIJB#19]

Nigel de Jong will play today.

[flere-imsaho]

Kinda surprised he isn't suspended.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Horseshit. You don't rig a game to lose by 5, 6 or 7 goals. End of story.

This is a team that obviously had a meltdown on the field. Shit happens. It's happened before in other sports. Sometimes things just snowball against you and everything goes wrong. The Lakers lost Game 7 in 2008 by a whopping 41 points. The Bears beat the Redskins 73-0 in the NFL title game. Rigged? No.

Frankly, you should be ashamed of yourself for suggesting that the players are on the take with no proof.

Edit: the poster Blackadar was responding to posted something later on making my post redundant

[bbor]

DEUTCHLAND UBER ALLES!!!

[Abe Sargent]

Since today is Argentina Independnace Day, I suspect they'll be up fior this. Cosmically.

[sterlingice]

I predict this game will not end 7-1. I also predict the sun will set tonight.

SI

[cartman]

Mascherano looked a bit out of it after banging heads.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by cartman

Mascherano looked a bit out of it after banging heads.

Yea, concussion protocol looks lacking here since he's already back in the game.

[Abe Sargent]

What's the rule on aiming the ball at people ?

[cartman]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

What's the rule on aiming the ball at people ?

Not aware of any rule banning it. Unless you kick a ball at someone while play is dead.

[ISiddiqui]

As said upthread, Argentina losing Di Maria doesn't hurt their defense. And it shows - not a shot for the Dutch in the 1st half.