WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Oh well, sorry for tainting the Flame folks, and good luck village!

Wasn't you, was the dark charm, at least that is how I read it. Sorry to see you go.

[hoopsguy]

Day 4 begins
1708 - Thomkal votes RA instead of piling on Bug
1718 - Narcizo votes Rum
1725 - Autumn votes RA
1760 - Jackal votes RA, runoff established now between 2 villagers (RA/Bug)
1769 - Dubb votes Crimson
1784 - Hoops introduces new candidate, EF (go me!)
1806 - Jackal suggests he is also suspicious of EF
1813 - Bug reveals as seer, scans are Jackal (D1), Danny (D2), and Mauboy (D3)
1829 - Narcizo joins on EF, is the 3rd person (Gramm was #2) ... his posts today suggest to me that Narcizo might have still been good guy on this day. Especially with him leaving vote here, if he had 3x vote as bad guy that would likely have been really bad news for bad guys
1837 - J23 votes EF, putting him up 4-3 on RA
1839 - Autumn looking at Thomkal voters from D3, will pick between EF/RA/Chief but likely not EF who is getting traction.
1845 - SnDvls pushes EF up to 5-3 lead
1860 - Commo thinks EF is good candidate, but doesn't want to contribute to run, votes Crimson
1876 - RA votes EF, now 6-3 lead with 3.5 hours to go
1889 - Dzilla tightens it to 6-4. Boo!
1891 - Crimson votes RA. More villager gah!
1909 - Mau "without a counter, there is no way I would consider voting Bug" ... were two wolves countering him the next day.
Note - Dubb, Autumn, and Commo all comment on Bug converted between posts 1900-1925.
1926 - Commo laying groundwork for Bug lying with reveal
1945 - Chief votes RA. Why did the damn villagers save RA??? 6-6 tie, 45 minutes to go
1947 - mckerney votes RA, first non-cleared-by-death on RA since 6-3 EF lead
1954 - Bug votes Chief Rum, instead of EF or RA????
1962 - EF, responding to dzilla, says he'll move his vote in defense if needed. Wolf was in thread to protect himself, coordinate on this evening
1963 - mauboy suggests tie, which would be awesome if it involved EF. But then votes RA, making it 8-6.
1966 - Commo asks why we are on EF over Chief?
1967 - Commo votes Chief
1975 - I say in thread, with 10 to go and vote 8-6, that it doesn't make sense to "chase corrupted folks" with 16 players left. Sadly, this was not convincing
1976 - Dubb doesn't think EF is a wolf
1978 - Dubb willing to go CR with vote
1980 - Dubb unvotes Crimson, votes CR
1981 - I saw I'll go CR over RA if we can swing votes (9 minutes to go)
1984 - I move from EF to CR (8 minutes to go), moving it to 8-5
1997 - Bug unvotes CR, votes RA 9-5 final (3 minutes to go)

[hoopsguy]

Looking at this, I'm giving more trust to the people who helped push EF out to the 6-3 lead.

Me - besides obvious I know I'm good I got ball rolling on him at point where leaders were Bug/RA and there was no motivation to introduce a wolf. But I moved the vote late, with Narcizo there ... if he was Servant with 3x vote at that time I'm sure case can/will be made that I bailed late to save EF.

J23 - put vote on making it 4-3, did not move it late.

Sadly, those are only two people left alive who voted for EF that day. And many of the later votes that saved EF were from people we now know are villagers.

Autumn, Dubb, Commo, Jackal, Thomkal, and Mauboy are people who had opportunities to help wrap up EF but did not for various reasons. All but Jackal were active in the thread in the last hour.

Jackal's last post of the day was at #1834, about 5.5 hours before deadline.

mckerney is the only roled/unchallenged person who voted down the stretch for RA, but it was a big swing vote. 7-6.

Thomkal/Autumn/Jackal were the first three votes on RA. All before the Bug reveal, none felt need to change at any point in the day. Those three are right now at the top of my list to check, with Jackal getting a smidge of leeway from being Bug's first scan.

[hoopsguy]

Hmm, did Abe ever give us a write-up on EagleFan/Servant?

[hoopsguy]

We've done pretty well this game, lynching four Servants in 7 days. But it still feels like we're behind, especially with two nights coming.

I'm really hoping mauboy was actually telling the truth about being the bodyguard because we could really use a block in this spot. Not remotely counting on it but hoping.

[MrBug708]

*feels much better*

[Abe Sargent]

Werecrocodile – At night, you can turn into a super powerful evil crocodile and attack people. You cannot take corrupt actions. You are a lycanthrope. If you are Cleansed, you can take someone into the fire with you. If you are the only Servant after Night One, you will gain a one time Lycanthropic Bite ability to convert someone on the following night into another Werecrocodile.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Hmm, did Abe ever give us a write-up on EagleFan/Servant?

no writeup, but listed as a WereCrocodile on page 1.

[Thomkal]

hey look there's a writeup now!

[Abe Sargent]

Sorry, didn't have the doc with the roles in my apartment and so I asked EF to send it to me.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Werecrocodile – At night, you can turn into a super powerful evil crocodile and attack people. You cannot take corrupt actions. You are a lycanthrope. If you are Cleansed, you can take someone into the fire with you. If you are the only Servant after Night One, you will gain a one time Lycanthropic Bite ability to convert someone on the following night into another Werecrocodile.

Hmm, "if you are the only Servant after Night One" ... doesn't seem like that could have been the case with the write-up we had on Zinto, does it?

But I think that does provide some insight into starting numbers for the Servants. I think three is the max there could have been initially for putting this kind of a proviso in the write-up. And I guess I would listen to an argument for two, if someone wants to give that a go after re-posting Zinto's death write-up and description.

[Commo_Soldier]

Went back to very end of Day 3 and all of day 4, picked out some posts I found interesting.

Originally Posted by Autumn

This gives us a lot to work with. A lot of people who seemed uninterested in voting Zinto.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

bug and chief LEAP to mind!

Originally Posted by Danny

Well, I think I am likely dead tonight

Originally Posted by Autumn

So following Danny's suggestion that he moved to Thomkal to see who would follow ...

danny votes thomkal 1387
cF unvotes mrbug 1389
cf votes thomkal
jackal unvotes mrbug 1398
jackal votes thomkal 1398
j23 unvotes mrbug 1401
j23 votes zinto 1401
mrbug votes thomkal 1402
zinto unvotes eaglefan 1405
zinto votes thomkal 1405
mauboy votes thomkal 1407
danny unvotes thomkal 1417

Here is that span of time. CF, Jackal, MrBug, Zinto, Mauboy. Quite a collection of folks there. Interestingly J23 bucks that trend and goes Zinto, making him look better to me.

Originally Posted by Autumn

And looking at the rest of the night, from when Danny switched back off of Thomkal ...

danny votes zinto 1417
dzilla votes thomkal 1431
mckerney votes thomkal 1438
danny unvotes zinto 1442
danny votes j23 1442
crimson fox unvotes thomkal 1445
cf votes j23 1445
thomkal unvotes mrbug 1468
thomkal votes zinto 1468
danny unvotes J23 1472
danny votes zinto 1472
autumn unvotes J23 1478
autumn votes zinto 1478
CF unvotes J23 1484
CF votes thomkal 1484
RA votes thomkal 1494
chief votes thomkal 1523
CF unvotes thomkal 1526
CF votes zinto 1526
jackal unvotes thomkal 1533
jackal votes zinto 1533

Dzilla and Mckerney continue the pile onto Thomkal. I thought that CF had said he would be voting Zinto, like Danny and I, but then he goes to Thomkal instead. RA and Chief look bad there as well. Pretty big list of suspects, unfortunately, just looking at the votes, probably some post analysis would be good.

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Well done. My wolfdar must not be working as I didn't see it. Though I still think Thom may be a wolf too. There didn't seem to be any movement to try to save Zinto at all.

Originally Posted by Danny

VERY interesting that Zinto had his vote on Eaglefan and NOT Mr. Bug and then switched once Thomkal emerged as the second candidate instead of Mr. Bug.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

I have to wonder about Dubb's vote on Zinto now given what he said earlier in the game on having no problem putting his vote on a fellow wolf.

Originally Posted by Danny

And just further supporting things, Thomkal is not a wolf (unless he is not known to the other wolves). No way Zinto avoids voting Mr. Bug and then votes a fellow wolf once he is the second candidate.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Reading through their posts I get decentish vibes from SnDvls and Zinto. Leaves Eagle, Bug and Thomkal. Wouldn't mind a run off of these guys. If the draft thingy is over I'd like to see a bit more from Eagle.

Vote EagleFan

See if he has anything to say for himself today.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Commo - generally I expect to see little movement from wolves when you have a situation that is villager-villager-(I think) villager (as was the case day two) - they've no need to risk sticking their necks out and potentially looking like they killed a villager by moving their votes around near deadline. This gave me a decent vibe from Zinto. What did you see that made you suspicious of him?

I voted EF because I was interested in a EF-Bug-Thomkal race and Bug already had a couple of votes. Didn't pick Thomkal because I just didn't see him making the slip up in thinking that he made when going after mau - the one that EF picked up on. Putting my vote on EF was the best I could do to start a contest between those players.

For what it's worth I'm still interested in those three. I don't think it was wolf-wolf with Thomkal yesterday unless Thomkal had a conversion power that he needed to use so the wolves decided to kill their leader to save Thom. I shall reassess and take out the NTN voters and put in the Zinto voters from yesterday.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I was feeling funky about Mauboy last night, so would probably go there, barring time to do a real post analysis. But I don't want to spread things too thin and make it easy for the wolves. For now I trust Thomkal and so will follow him to keep things consolidated. If I get a chance later I will look at things more in-depth and maybe move this.

vote raider's army

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I know dzilla shouldn't be a candidate today (maybe maybe not) but I gotta think if he can be converted we should give him a look too.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well, dzilla can't be converted. Are you saying you think he was lying about being an exorcist?

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Hmmm. I didnt catch the poossibility that exorcist can't be converted.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Jackal - Good
Danny - Good
Mauboy - Good

There, I said it. I'm the Seer

Originally Posted by Narcizo

OK I think chief is the best choice out there but no one else seems to share that view. Don't want to get left with a single vote on someone. I'm interested in running a candidate against Raiders at least so I'll go back to yesterday's vote

Unvote Chief Rum
Vote EagleFan

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I'm good for whatever as I have nothing major planned as of now.

Thinking about votes, I think EF is a great candidate, but don't want to have him with 2x as many votes as number two. I think RA would be a better exorcism candidate than lynch candidate. So based on others with votes and to see where this goes as I have some doubts about him.

CF

at least until I get home in a few hours.

Originally Posted by dzilla77

vote CR

I don't like the runaway on EF and I can't quite bring myself to believe RA is wolf yet based on day1

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I kinda trust thomkal, Autumn, and Jackal not to be wolves today.

sndvls, those choices aren't bad ones. Chief was one of two picks I spoke of yesterday for his vote yesterday and his quietness. Now he's talking and analyzing which I like. But chief has no votes right now so would seem a wasted vote now anyway, even tho I might prefer to.

Currently a 4 + 1 run on EF with only one person I THINK I trust as good in J23. But I trust really that j23 was good the first 2 days.

Would be better if this were closer I think, but will standby if for some ungodly reason I have to make a save my ass vote.

vote raiders

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Any thoughts on a tie tonight?

I have no feelings on either of these candidates really.

I may still change it but to avoid a tie at the moment, I'll go:

vote raiders

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Why are we on EF over chief? His vote could have swayed it to Thomakal yesterday with only 9 minutes left. I know he said he had suspicions and would bring them up, and I may have missed them, but I haven't seen what they were.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think Chief is at least as good a vote as EF, sure. A few people tried to get him running, but he just never got the numbers.

Originally Posted by dzilla77

I had a vote on him before I realized nobody else had voted for him. I like him for a wolf better than RA, but RA could be corrupted.

Originally Posted by dubb93

I don't feel like EF is a wolf or I would consider moving my vote to create a tie. I think I will leave it on CF unless there is a valid reason I shouldn't. I think between him and Hoops we are 50/50 on hitting a wolf.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

There didn't seem to be a point in bringing up the vibe posts I saw by Thomkal,because it didn't make sense that a wolf (Zinto), or the wolves in general, would have set up Thomkal, a fellow wolf, as the alternative to Zinto.

Originally Posted by dzilla77

Interesting nobody is moving of RA to CR (that includes me), but last time I move, it looked really bad.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

nice idea commo but a bit late.

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Even I am curious why he switched.

Originally Posted by dubb93

He has even confused the wolves!

Originally Posted by EagleFan

then I see as I was posting that bug switches to RA, I'm confused.

Originally Posted by dubb93

It was 100% true last time. I survived an exorcism. Gained trust in the process. Exorcist didn't follow up b/c he had no idea I had an item that was destroyed. Wolves gave me another item after the exorcist didn't follow up. Exorcist missed his chance to nail a wolf.

I seriously hope we don't repeat that process this game with this information out there. Even if CF isn't a wolf the only chance to actually "get" a wolf could potentially be the night after an exorcism b/c the wolves won't have had a chance to give him the charm again.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Unvote Chief Rum

Ok, well then I will have to rethink things in the morning then. Glad someone came forward before I mentioned it.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

That was quick.

Originally Posted by MrBug708

The movement would have been interesting

Originally Posted by MrBug708

...on who follows you

[Commo_Soldier]

Tomorrow I will shoot for quoting wolves and things they've said about other players. I do believe based on what I quoted above that Narc was a villager to start and was converted at the end of night 4. The question we have to ask is when do we think conversions stopped and how often they could convert. I can't see to many conversions happening after day 4 though.

[Abe Sargent]

Processin time

[Abe Sargent]

You awaken to find another of your group gone. Thomkal has been killed! He as a vanilla villager. He appears to have been killed in a similar way, with pressure applied to his neck to snap it. It wasn't with human hands. It looks more like rope or a snake perhaps that did it.


Today is short and red. There is no Sacred Flame as you try and purify it. You have no chance for putting someone in it today. Night has flattened again.


Night Seven has ended. Night Eight ends at 11:00 am or when I get all night action pmed to me with the Dayfall phrase on them.

[Abe Sargent]

Night all

[Thomkal]

good luck all

[mauchow]

Missed that one.

I've got my branch managers conference the next three days so I will be extremely limited with my activity, not that that changes a whole lot from what it was already.

Good luck with the day villagers - I will check in and answer questions as often as I can.

-Your Sheriff

[hoopsguy]

Killing off Thomkal clarifies the Day 3 voting ... that Zinto was running against a villager.

[The Jackal]

Mau you do realize that there is another night phase happening right away right? Make sure you get a protect order in if you are indeed the sheriff.

[mauchow]

Yeah I did this morning. Hopefully I can guess right this time...

[The Jackal]

I'll withhold further commentary/speculation until the next day phase.

[The Jackal]

Let's just remember that in the last game the wolves were able to end a day earlier than the deadline - now that we've seen the double night phase perhaps they won't have anymore tricks up their sleeves but you never know.

[Autumn]

That's an odd pick. Thomkal was in a tight race, and pretty obviously must be vanilla. So it doesn't seem like role hunting. I'll have to look back through his posts and see what that might be about.

Thanks for posting all that stuff guys. Back in a few to look it over.

[The Jackal]

I don't think it was role hunting, Autumn. I think either they want us to believe mau is the BG or he actually is and they didn't want to risk him guessing right protecting himself or mckerney.

[J23]

Let's not do the work for the wolves before the 2nd nightkill please

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by J23

Let's not do the work for the wolves before the 2nd nightkill please

Fiiiine. I want to play mind games with them!

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

Let's not do the work for the wolves before the 2nd nightkill please

Which work? Trying to figure out why they killed Thomkal? How would that help them? I'm sure as heck going to get out anything I find now, in case I get killed.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not sure how they passed on one of the two potential Tinkerer/Lifegivers still out there. I was clearly bluffing about the Day 7 expiration thing when I revealed it the other night.

Oops - there is still another kill to come. What I meant to say, is that the powers actually expired on Day 8. Yeah, that's it.

[hoopsguy]

Suddenly, a flurry of posts!

[EagleFan]

[Autumn]

To be a werecroc you've got to look good in jean shorts.

[Autumn]

How was CF killed? I remember he was buried, but was he chomped on, or neck snapped? Those seem to be the two methods of killing here. Seems one day they got two kills for some reason, and now the second killer has taken over?

[Autumn]

Here's what I found for Thomkal's recent posts. They go in two directions -- one suggesting he's believing Mauboy's reveal, or at least that it doesn't make sense for a bad guy to be coming out like that. The other direction wondering why cleared folks like Mauboy and Jackal are still alive. I'm not sure that either of these angles is why the wolves would kill him, but without digging back even further I don't know what would explain it. I felt pretty strongly Thomkal was a villager, just on gut, so maybe they just figured others felt that way too.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

well unlike yesterday, I don't think we should be going for a tie today. Because unlike Narc and Eaglefan there's Bug's view of him on day 3 as being a Lightbringer. So that would mean Mauboy is a conversion if he's a Servant. (or had the charm against detection in his possession). Thus he's likely to not be as powerful as the starting Servants and I'd rather go after them first.

While I find Mauboy's reveal itself questionable, I find the timing of it to be very odd if he really is a Servant. I mean think about it. If EagleFan is a Servant like we believe and hope-why put another of their kind on the chopping board for the next day? That would be five Servants gone, and there just can't be many more left-one for sure and at the most two. Maybe they didn't anticipate dubb going through Mauboy's posts so thoroughly and finding some questionable actions if he knew Narc was lying about his sheriff claim. Plus Mauboy was already semi-cleared by the seer-better to risk an uncleared with such a role claim in my opinion.

So unlike EagleFan's attempts to explain his mistakes, I think its possible Mauboy just played his role differently than many of us would have. There's a lot more doubt here, enough for me to want to go after just EagleFan with the lynch today than take the risk of lynching a potential Sheriff.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Also something has been bothering me for a while-why aren't Jackal and Mauboy dead yet? Both seer-cleared, they make much better targets for the Servants, especially as we get nearer to the end of the game and they need more uncleared suspects.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

if both Eaglefan and Narc are both Servants, I'm going to believe mauboy's claim more. I mean that's three straight days the Servants will have been lynched if Mauboy turns out to be one too-I would think they would want the attention off them tomorrow, not additional attention given what's happened the last two days. To try a fake reveal at this point just seems to be the wrong decision here at this point in the game if this is what the Servants are trying here.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Guys I really an the soothsayer and I just soothsayered this post. This is a picture of EF in real life. The horror.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Autumn

How was CF killed? I remember he was buried, but was he chomped on, or neck snapped? Those seem to be the two methods of killing here. Seems one day they got two kills for some reason, and now the second killer has taken over?

Here you go:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

You eventually find the Exorcist sitting calmly on a bench, until you walk in front of him to greet him and notice that has face has been chewed off. Only the fact he is wearing the same clothes as yesterday identifies this as dzilla77's body.

But where is CrimsonFox?

You keep looking. You walk by the church and notice that someone has hastily dug something in the cemetery last night. You start digging and in a handful of minutes, just a foot below the surface, you come across CF's body, dead to violent ends. It looks like someone snapped his neck.


Both CF and dzilla77 have died. CF was a roleless Lightbrigner, and dzilla77 was The Exorcist.

[Thomkal]

Actually I prefer this image of EagleFan, from the comic book series 52. Here he is in action:

Sobek - UGO.com

[J23]

So if CF died on Night 4 and it appears the kill tonight was done w/ the same method, if it WAS a convert, it must have happened sometime night 1-3.

[mauchow]

Here goes nothing. Mclerney is my block.

[The Jackal]

Well, we're gonna have 7 people left if there is a NK, which means it's probably gonna be either 6-1 or 5-2. Hopefully the former.

[hoopsguy]

And now we wait for Abe ...

[mauchow]

Hope I don't die. Lol

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Here goes nothing. Mclerney is my block.

Servants can feel free to respond to this with "Ha!" or "Damn!"

[mauchow]

Please redeem myself.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

So if CF died on Night 4 and it appears the kill tonight was done w/ the same method, if it WAS a convert, it must have happened sometime night 1-3.

Yeah, good catch. If it's not a convert, then they started with seemingly four wolves. Maybe their ability to convert was just really nerfed, like we saw in the case of the werecroc which could only do it under certain circumstances I still worry that Narc's Seduce was a conversion action though. And if so it seemed like his "seduced" individual was still in the game.

I also wonder if there isn't more going on behind the scenes we don't know about, maybe having to go with items the bad guys need or something. Abe games seem to usually have that kind of twist.

[The Jackal]

I haven't received or passed an item all game, still have what I had originally.

[Abe Sargent]

Processing

[J23]

I've been thinking the seduce might have been a block night actions ability rather than a conversion.

[J23]

dola. Which would make the sacrificing of Narc to buy EF another night an even more obvious move.

[mauchow]

Does the person I passed the tincture of camphor on night one want to step forward?