The 2010 MLB Season Thread

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Maybe it's about time you stop trying to explain and just accept.

Last pitcher I started accepting the results even while not understanding them was Hideki Okajima (high 80's fastball over the plate? deception can only last so long), and that hasn't gone so well this year...

The weird thing with Weaver was he was relying on a seemingly unsustainable HR/FB, so when I finally started to accept that was not going to regress after 3 seasons he goes and jumps his K rate by 33% with no discernible change in velocity or repertoire.

Originally Posted by bhlloy

The situation with Barrett Loux is really rough. Kid was ready to sign the $2m contract but because the team can leave him unsigned and get the same pick back next year, there's no reason for them to take a risk on him. He'll be lucky to see a minor league deal with the stigma around him now. Not blaming the Dbacks, I wouldn't want my team to spend $2m on a guy who might be done either, but still very tough for a kid who thought he had something and then had it snatched away.

Mandatory physicals before the draft are a no brainer and a good step, but teams shouldn't be able to take a contract off the table and get the compensatory pick next year either. You shouldn't be compensated if you don't try and sign the player. Passan wrote a pretty good article on Y! Sports about this a few weeks back.

That was the speculation when the news first came out, but the more I think about it it wouldn't surprise me to see him top the $2m offer. There are definite injury concerns, but he made it through all last season. Add in that now you'll have up to 30 teams (or 29 if Arizona isn't allowed to bid) it only takes 2 who want to add a free 1st-round talent to their system and I think he'll be alright. Won't get the $10m that Travis Lee did, or the amount that a Karsten Whitson would if he was allowed to become a free agent, but I think he'll get at least 7 figures.

[bhlloy]

Yeah, I was just reading the same. A bit surprising to me but what is $2m to some of the larger market teams. I'd like to see the Angels take a run at him, we're desperate for young pitchers above rookie level in the system.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Last pitcher I started accepting the results even while not understanding them was Hideki Okajima (high 80's fastball over the plate? deception can only last so long), and that hasn't gone so well this year...

The weird thing with Weaver was he was relying on a seemingly unsustainable HR/FB, so when I finally started to accept that was not going to regress after 3 seasons he goes and jumps his K rate by 33% with no discernible change in velocity or repertoire.That was the speculation when the news first came out, but the more I think about it it wouldn't surprise me to see him top the $2m offer. There are definite injury concerns, but he made it through all last season. Add in that now you'll have up to 30 teams (or 29 if Arizona isn't allowed to bid) it only takes 2 who want to add a free 1st-round talent to their system and I think he'll be alright. Won't get the $10m that Travis Lee did, or the amount that a Karsten Whitson would if he was allowed to become a free agent, but I think he'll get at least 7 figures.

Heh...forget if you were involved in it, but I still remember the debate some of us had a few years back, when King Felix, Weaver and Verlander all hit the bigs about the same time, and there were some who swore up and down via sabermetric stats that Weaver was going to plateau somewhat lower than where he is now, and never be a top end pitcher.

This particular level he'll need to maintain for a year or two more, I think, before people accept that this is the pitcher Weav is, but even before the jump in peripherals, he was pretty good.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Heh...forget if you were involved in it, but I still remember the debate some of us had a few years back, when King Felix, Weaver and Verlander all hit the bigs about the same time, and there were some who swore up and down via sabermetric stats that Weaver was going to plateau somewhat lower than where he is now, and never be a top end pitcher.

This particular level he'll need to maintain for a year or two more, I think, before people accept that this is the pitcher Weav is, but even before the jump in peripherals, he was pretty good.

There's no world in which Weaver is anywhere near the pitcher that King Felix is, and he's not even the pitcher Verlander is. He's very good, but lets see this performance repeated before we buy that he's more than a solid no 3-4 (which is still a damn good pitcher - just not elite). I don't know what the deal is with his K-rate, but the sample simply isn't large enough to buy that he's taken this "leap" yet.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Yeah, I was just reading the same. A bit surprising to me but what is $2m to some of the larger market teams. I'd like to see the Angels take a run at him, we're desperate for young pitchers above rookie level in the system.

Is Loux higher than a rookie level guy right now? He's a college guy, right? If so, then I understand what you're talking about. I just assumed he was rookie level to start unless he was particularly well developed.

Angels are going to play Cowart at 3B, apparently, and not use him as a pitcher. Does that surprise you, bhlloy, given the need for pitching? Register puts his top end FB at 97 mph (not that speed alone matters, but that's a nice figure to hit). I also thought, maybe with Skaggs going to AZ, they might want to look to replace him in the system.

Of course, it's not like 3B is some stockpiled position in the Angels' system.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

There's no world in which Weaver is anywhere near the pitcher that King Felix is, and he's not even the pitcher Verlander is.He's very good, but lets see this performance repeated before we buy that he's more than a solid no 3-4 (which is still a damn good pitcher - just not elite). I don't know what the deal is with his K-rate, but the sample simply isn't large enough to buy that he's taken this "leap" yet.

Show me where in my post I said that he was, please (the bolded part).

As for the rest, if you don't think he hasn't been pitching better than a 3-4 the past 3 seasons, you haven't been paying attention.

I would agree that he's a damn good pitcher, and not elite. I would not agree that a 3-4 pitcher is a damn good pitcher. That's an average pitcher, at best.

[BishopMVP]

If we want to rehash old arguments, I'd point out that a 3-4 pitcher on an AL contender is different than an NL Central 3-4. I mean, what do you call Buchholz? I think Lester is clearly up in the ace category now, and then you're left with Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey and Daisuke (who for all the shit people talk about him is putting up a sub-4.00 FIP), all of whom could be described somewhere between #2 and #5 starter depending on which metrics and evidence you want to use.

[stevew]

Loux easily gets 2m and probably a major league contract.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

If we want to rehash old arguments, I'd point out that a 3-4 pitcher on an AL contender is different than an NL Central 3-4. I mean, what do you call Buchholz? I think Lester is clearly up in the ace category now, and then you're left with Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey and Daisuke (who for all the shit people talk about him is putting up a sub-4.00 FIP), all of whom could be described somewhere between #2 and #5 starter depending on which metrics and evidence you want to use.

I agree that not all 3-4's are created equal, but Crap wasn't making an argument using a specific 3-4, he was using a generic reference 3-4. With respect to that, his concept of it, without further explanation, would have to be supposed to be some general average of all such pitchers in the league. This would produce, at best, a league average pitcher.

Also, if we do tlak specifics, this year's crapfest aside, the Angels, of course, are normally a contender and their rotation isn't the reason why they're not in the playoff mix right now (that's the one part of the team that is clearly playoff caliber). And Weaver is at worst 1A on that team (and only because of trading for Haren). So you can't even frame him as a 3-4 on a contender.

[dawgfan]

Weaver was a pretty good pitcher before this year, and has made a leap forward to being really good this year. Can he sustain it? Too early to tell. As pointed out, his K rate has improved significantly and his walk rate has decreased, and both are good enough to offset his flyball tendencies.

From a quick glance at his pitch types and velocities, there doesn't appear to be a major change there to explain the big jump in his K rate - he's throwing his curve and slider a little more, his fastball and change a little less, and everything is roughly the same velocity as before - which means we'll have to dig a little deeper. Perhaps his pitches now have more movement, or different movement; maybe his release point has changed; maybe he's adjusted his delivery to add more deception; maybe he's just pitching more in the strike zone.

This would be a good pitch f/x project for someone, to compare 2010 Weaver to 2009 Weaver and see if anything stands out in his pitch results in terms of location, movement and release point.

[Swaggs]

How long until Boras uses the Loux precedent to manipulate the system?

I read a snippet on a Pirates blog, but the gist of the situation is that say Anthony Rendon, who is coming off ankle surgery, goes number one overall and demands $15M. The team offers a more "fair" $8-10M. Boras can probably use the Loux situation to say that the team is not paying Rendon's full value due to his ankle injury, have him not sign, and then make a reasonable case that he should be granted free agency, as well.

They better close this loophole with a good ruling (for example, if the team offers slot or over, you cannot be granted free agency) before Boras or someone else start using it as a strategy to get amateurs declared free agents.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I agree that not all 3-4's are created equal, but Crap wasn't making an argument using a specific 3-4, he was using a generic reference 3-4. With respect to that, his concept of it, without further explanation, would have to be supposed to be some general average of all such pitchers in the league. This would produce, at best, a league average pitcher.

Also, if we do tlak specifics, this year's crapfest aside, the Angels, of course, are normally a contender and their rotation isn't the reason why they're not in the playoff mix right now (that's the one part of the team that is clearly playoff caliber). And Weaver is at worst 1A on that team (and only because of trading for Haren). So you can't even frame him as a 3-4 on a contender.

I don't think you can use a pitchers status on his team as an indication - Kansas City doesn't have anyone I would consider a #2 just because it's the role they fill on the team. I also don't think a legitimate 3 is league average - 4 maybe, but there's such a rotating door at the 5 spot these days it doesn't break down easily like you're playing OOTP or Puresim.

Kalish and McDonald doing their best to back me up on his HR/FB - although the Kalish HR was the type of one that makes Weaver a worse pitcher in Fenway (nearly 8.00 ERA in 26.2 IP) because it's probably not out in most parks. And Clay Buchholz with another 7IP 0ER 3K start. I think his stuff looks great (and he was touching 97-98 too) - if you actually watched the game and think I'm being a homer, feel free - but I just don't see why the K rate is so low.

stevew - I think it would be pretty easy to word the precedent - Loux signed a contract and the team voided it after the physical. Agents/players wouldn't sign below-market contracts in the hopes that the team would find something wrong and void them. And if it's far enough below-market the team may still honor it, as the Brewers were willing to do for Covey. I do agree that signing day (and demands) next year will be insane with so many teams trying to stock up on high-ceiling HS'ers before slotting comes in.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Noticed this in the recap of the Braves win over the Nats, a sure sign that school is back in session all over the metro Atlanta area

Even with the Braves contending for their first playoff appearance since 2005 and pulling out one thrilling win after another, just 16,911 turned out at Turner Field -- by the far the smallest home crowd of the season.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Noticed this in the recap of the Braves win over the Nats, a sure sign that school is back in session all over the metro Atlanta area

Even with the Braves contending for their first playoff appearance since 2005 and pulling out one thrilling win after another, just 16,911 turned out at Turner Field -- by the far the smallest home crowd of the season.

I was just going to post how exciting this Braves-Phils chase will be down the stretch, but this puts a really sour taste in my mouth.

Say what you will about those horrid Philadelphia fans, but at least they still sell out the ballpark night-in, night-out, despite three straight trips to the post-season. I hate when teams are good and don't get fan support for whatever reason (see Marlins, Florida).

As much as I dislike the Mets, I'm happier when we're in a pennant race against them because their fans are usually pretty dedicated and fun to share insults with. Hard to share insults with empty seats.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

I was just going to post how exciting this Braves-Phils chase will be down the stretch, but this puts a really sour taste in my mouth.

It's pretty simple to understand how it happens here though.

The Braves fan base is largely suburban, exurban, and rural, not nearly so much so in the city proper. Been that way most of my life. It's also comprised heavily of older fans (who don't like to drive at night, much less to the south side of Atlanta) and ppl with kids that have to get up for school tomorrow morning.

The latter also have to face getting home from work with the 4th worst average commute time in the country (only NYC, DC, and CHI are worse), rounding up the family if they're even available with all the extra stuff that goes with school being in, and then get back to the stadium for a 7p start.

Then you've got the start of football season less than three weeks away so attention is already divided, combined with a lackluster opponent tonight, combined with the economy, it all becomes a perfect storm.

Keep in mind that Saturday vs the Dodgers was the 2nd largest crowd of the season, a sellout exceeded only by Opening Day. The school effect is clearly now in full swing as the last of the metro area schools returned to class today, not even $5 tickets (which I believe they did tonight for all upper deck) is going to overcome that.

[RedKingGold]

Again, all well and good, but the overall point still holds that the Braves/Marlins simply do not draw well.. The Marlins have very valid reasons why they also do not draw well (poor baseball stadium, frequent rain showers, many other entertainment opportunities, etc.). However, it does not change the fact that the Marlins, like the Braves, do not draw well, even when the team is successful. Makes me feel for the teams in good baseball markets (Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City (yeah, Kansas City)), who I think would draw extremely well with a product as good as the Marlins and Braves are putting out there this season or in recent years.

[sovereignstar]

JIM MUTHAFUCKIN' THOME

[mckerney]

Thank you Jim Thome.

[RedKingGold]

I miss Jim Thome. I really wish the Phils signed him for their bench.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Again, all well and good

Yeah, I was just making conversation, not being defensive or anything.

[DaddyTorgo]

Good Sox game tonight. Was there.

Going next Tuesday too - got 2 free bleacher tix.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I don't think you can use a pitchers status on his team as an indication - Kansas City doesn't have anyone I would consider a #2 just because it's the role they fill on the team. I also don't think a legitimate 3 is league average - 4 maybe, but there's such a rotating door at the 5 spot these days it doesn't break down easily like you're playing OOTP or Puresim.

Well, I agree you can't. My point was just a counter to your suggestion that Crap's 3-4 was specific instead of general. In the end, it all averages out anyway. Sure, KC might not have a #2, but the Yankees and Rays and Red Sox have #2 level pitchers pitching near the back end of their rotations.

I also agree that the 4 spot is probably a good call on the average, taking all starters into account. But I wasn't really including the mish mash of AAAA starters, spot starters, injury fill ins and rookie call ups that often make up the #5 spot in many rotations. Among starters who consistently take the ball every fifth day, who log in at 25-plus starts every year, I think the #3 pitcher isn't a bad spot to call it league average of that group of players.

But, hey, that's just quibbles and guesswork.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Well, I agree you can't. My point was just a counter to your suggestion that Crap's 3-4 was specific instead of general. In the end, it all averages out anyway. Sure, KC might not have a #2, but the Yankees and Rays and Red Sox have #2 level pitchers pitching near the back end of their rotations.

I also agree that the 4 spot is probably a good call on the average, taking all starters into account. But I wasn't really including the mish mash of AAAA starters, spot starters, injury fill ins and rookie call ups that often make up the #5 spot in many rotations. Among starters who consistently take the ball every fifth day, who log in at 25-plus starts every year, I think the #3 pitcher isn't a bad spot to call it league average of that group of players.

But, hey, that's just quibbles and guesswork.

I think of a 3 starter as a well above average starter, but someone who is by no means a star - in the same way as not everyone has a no 1 starter (Going into this season, I would have said there are 15 maybe in baseball), the idea that no 3 refers to a generic league average starter is pretty clearly not implied. The average SP has an ERA+ of around 95 (not 100), and so I definitely don't think of Weaver as that guy - he's proven to be above that. I don't believe in this K rate just yet (you don't suddenly jump from 4 years of 7.4-7.7 K/9 to 10.0), but Weaver got a lot of hype as a star due to his rookie ERA - that deserves a clampdown. But we'll see - pitchers don't follow the kind of standard aging patterns of peaks and troughs you generally see in hitters.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

I think of a 3 starter as a well above average starter, but someone who is by no means a star - in the same way as not everyone has a no 1 starter (Going into this season, I would have said there are 15 maybe in baseball), the idea that no 3 refers to a generic league average starter is pretty clearly not implied. The average SP has an ERA+ of around 95 (not 100), and so I definitely don't think of Weaver as that guy - he's proven to be above that. I don't believe in this K rate just yet (you don't suddenly jump from 4 years of 7.4-7.7 K/9 to 10.0), but Weaver got a lot of hype as a star due to his rookie ERA - that deserves a clampdown. But we'll see - pitchers don't follow the kind of standard aging patterns of peaks and troughs you generally see in hitters.

Yeah, I can buy this. I have no idea what's going on with Weaver this year either, but glad a as fan that it's happening. I certainly hope he can make this his standard performance for his peak years.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Is Loux higher than a rookie level guy right now? He's a college guy, right? If so, then I understand what you're talking about. I just assumed he was rookie level to start unless he was particularly well developed.

Angels are going to play Cowart at 3B, apparently, and not use him as a pitcher. Does that surprise you, bhlloy, given the need for pitching? Register puts his top end FB at 97 mph (not that speed alone matters, but that's a nice figure to hit). I also thought, maybe with Skaggs going to AZ, they might want to look to replace him in the system.

Of course, it's not like 3B is some stockpiled position in the Angels' system.

Yeah, I assume Loux would come in at least at high A level as he's a 3 year college starter and be on a fast track to be in the majors pretty soon, but don't have anything to back that up other than the comments the DBacks made after the draft.

Not really surprised to see Cowart at 3B as that's what I'd read all along. He's a big time project at either position but a bit less of a project on the offensive side where he'll get a bit more of a chance to use his physical tools to full effect. And like you say, other than OF it's not like any position is particularly stocked in the Angels system. I guess it's Bedrosian or bust from this year's draft.

[k0ruptr]

I'm pretty sure Kenny fucking Williams wishes he had resigned Thome now. fuck

[JPhillips]

Thanks Brewers!

Love,

Reds Fans

[lungs]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Thanks Brewers!

Love,

Reds Fans

You're welcome. If you didn't get the drift earlier in the thread, I hate the fucking Cardinals.

A Brewer fan

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Again, all well and good, but the overall point still holds that the Braves/Marlins simply do not draw well.. The Marlins have very valid reasons why they also do not draw well (poor baseball stadium, frequent rain showers, many other entertainment opportunities, etc.). However, it does not change the fact that the Marlins, like the Braves, do not draw well, even when the team is successful. Makes me feel for the teams in good baseball markets (Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City (yeah, Kansas City)), who I think would draw extremely well with a product as good as the Marlins and Braves are putting out there this season or in recent years.

The Braves are 13th in average attendance this year. Should it be higher? Sure. Is that terrible? No, not really. They have never had as low attendance numbers as the Marlins when they are in contention. The Braves have been in the middle of the pack attendance wise the last couple of years, without having a good team. The Marlins? Near the bottom every year. The Braves are not the Marlins.

The Braves have picked up Cliff Lee, btw.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The Braves have picked up Cliff Lee, btw.

Either you mean Derrek Lee, or I'm missing a joke.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Either you mean Derrek Lee, or I'm missing a joke.

Sorry, I actually meant Bruce Lee.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Sorry, I actually meant Bruce Lee.

Probably a closer physical comparison in 2010 between Derek & Bruce than Derek & Cliff.

I was gonna go with Lee Van Cleef myself

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

Harper Lee?

Geddy Lee, Stagger Lee, and Gypsy Rose Lee are all better bets physically.

Basically the Braves just acquired another Troy Glaus to replace the one that needed repairs.

[stevew]

Tommy Lee has a big stick.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by lungs

You're welcome. If you didn't get the drift earlier in the thread, I hate the fucking Cardinals.

A Brewer fan

It's like me, Mizzourah, and MBBF hating Texas in football. A lot of people agree with us and hate Texas as well but it is nothing but pure envy. With 2008 being the only season in the past 20 years that you guys have even had a glimpse of what it is like to be a Cardinal fan I understand the hatred. Sorry about 1982... we should have let you guys win that one and just kept our other 9 for ourselves.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Geddy Lee, Stagger Lee, and Gypsy Rose Lee are all better bets physically.

Basically the Braves just acquired another Troy Glaus to replace the one that needed repairs.

I'm just hoping the parts are interchangable. They are definitely not the same make or model.

[larrymcg421]

My understanding is that the Braves plan to try and use Glaus at 3B, so both Lee and Glaus will be in the lineup at the same time.

[Ramzavail]

I'm gonna guess they are going to play Prado at 3b. and platoon Lee and Glaus at 1b. I'm not sure either are physically able to play 7 games a week.

[larrymcg421]

Well if we just traded for a guy to platoon for a couple months, then epic fail.

[Ramzavail]

well maybe I'm wrong, but I didn't think Lee was healthy enough to play 7 games a week. I guess we'll see.

[Ramzavail]

but frankly, for humor's sake, I'd love to see Glaus play 3b.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by panerd

It's like me, Mizzourah, and MBBF hating Texas in football. A lot of people agree with us and hate Texas as well but it is nothing but pure envy. With 2008 being the only season in the past 20 years that you guys have even had a glimpse of what it is like to be a Cardinal fan I understand the hatred. Sorry about 1982... we should have let you guys win that one and just kept our other 9 for ourselves.

Envy? Maybe. Honestly it's more LaRussa. He is a jackass plain and simple. No real disrespect for the players themselves. Pujols will go down as one of the best all time. Dave Duncan does a masterful job with the pitching. Cardinals fans are passionate. But as long as LaRussa is the face of that ball club I'll have nothing but disdain for the Cardinals. If LaRussa leaves I'm neutral. I'll always hate the Cubs though. Regional thing. I couldn't give a fuck about Missouri.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by lungs

Envy? Maybe. Honestly it's more LaRussa. He is a jackass plain and simple. No real disrespect for the players themselves. Pujols will go down as one of the best all time. Dave Duncan does a masterful job with the pitching. Cardinals fans are passionate. But as long as LaRussa is the face of that ball club I'll have nothing but disdain for the Cardinals. If LaRussa leaves I'm neutral. I'll always hate the Cubs though. Regional thing. I couldn't give a fuck about Missouri.

Well, I can't fucking stand Dusty Baker, probably why I can't stand the Reds. I do like Rolen and would love to have him still at the hot corner.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by MizzouRah

Well, I can't fucking stand Dusty Baker, probably why I can't stand the Reds. I do like Rolen and would love to have him still at the hot corner.

I'll always have a soft spot in my heart for the guy that sunk two phenom Cub pitchers

[panerd]

Originally Posted by lungs

Envy? Maybe. Honestly it's more LaRussa. He is a jackass plain and simple. No real disrespect for the players themselves. Pujols will go down as one of the best all time. Dave Duncan does a masterful job with the pitching. Cardinals fans are passionate. But as long as LaRussa is the face of that ball club I'll have nothing but disdain for the Cardinals. If LaRussa leaves I'm neutral. I'll always hate the Cubs though. Regional thing. I couldn't give a fuck about Missouri.

I understand, just trying to rib you a little bit. I took a family vacation a few weeks ago to the Wisconsin Dells and was surprised by the amount of shit I got for wearing a Pujols t-shirt. (I was actually a little surprised about how much shit I got earlier in the summer in Cincinnati but they are having a good season)

I guess I am just used to rooting for the underdog (Bengals/Steelers, Mizzou/Texas&KU, Blues/Red Wings & Hawks, Libertarian/Republicrats ) It is kind of fun being the villain but I have to admit to being naive about how hated LaRussa and Joe Buck seem to be outside of St. Louis. We must be getting pumped a lot of disinformation here that I have grown used to.

[kingfc22]

Well shit...1-4 now in the last 5 (SD & PHI). Not going to see the post season if we can't beat the other teams fighting for the same spot.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by panerd

I understand, just trying to rib you a little bit. I took a family vacation a few weeks ago to the Wisconsin Dells and was surprised by the amount of shit I got for wearing a Pujols t-shirt.

Well, I can't deny that as a Brewer fan all I have my hat to hang on in life that I have memory of is 2008.... I was 3 months old for the World Series in '82.

Seeing as you were in the Dells, at least half of those people had to be Cub fans from Illinois anyway

I live 30 minutes from the Dells but don't really like to go up there until winter when all the flatlanders are gone.