The Stock Market thread

[NobodyHere]

I have no idea why the SP500 is at record levels. I'm not sure if I want to know.
I'm just going to enjoy it and hope I can retire sooner rather than later.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

This world is so stupid. They're pivoting from something people need to something no one wants and the people who own it has their stock price go up 700% for announcing something pointless. We are literally creating "money" out of thin air and pretending everything is going fine.

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That story reads like a very good April Fools joke article.

[jbpostbot]

i am now powered by ai. if i fail, i will power me with 2 ai's

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by jbpostbot

i am now powered by ai. if i fail, i will power me with 2 ai's

Can I buy stock in you?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I have no idea why the SP500 is at record levels. I'm not sure if I want to know.
I'm just going to enjoy it and hope I can retire sooner rather than later.

I think it is because we told everyone to invest in index funds so you have a constant flow of new money going into the S&P regardless of what happens in the world. Tough to make that go down.

There's some weird economic theory about the whole thing that I can't find right now.

[JPhillips]

Another huge oil short just before Trump said the Strait was open.

Trump always insider trades.

[albionmoonlight]

3.8% inflation.

[JPhillips]

This seems bad.

13.1% of credit card balances in the US are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest since 2011.

5.6% of auto loan balances are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest level on record.

[flere-imsaho]

That sounds very much like 2008.

[Fidatelo]

Mechanic friend of mine started doing car repos a few years ago as a side-hustle to make a couple hundred bucks here and there. Cut to this year and it's now his full time job and he can't keep up with the volume.

[JPhillips]

We're all going to get fucked with Elon's IPO.

Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO:

Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5.

This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations.

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months.

Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%.

The rules built to protect passive investors:

1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived.

2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15.

3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.

All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing.

[albionmoonlight]

Did they give any reasons for waiving the rules (i know the real reasons, but did they pretend to give another reason)?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We're all going to get fucked with Elon's IPO.

I seriously can't believe they are actually doing it. Guess it's time to shift back to managed funds.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Did they give any reasons for waiving the rules (i know the real reasons, but did they pretend to give another reason)?

My understanding is that the rules are only proposed right now.

But their reasoning is that they don't want to miss out on the AI bubble.

[Danny]

Im no expert and I know the reaction of anything Musk or Trump is strong here but given SpaceX low weight of the s&p 500 etc isnt this much ado about nothing for the common savs for reitrement investor?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Danny

Im no expert and I know the reaction of anything Musk or Trump is strong here but given SpaceX low weight of the s&p 500 etc isnt this much ado about nothing for the common savs for reitrement investor?

Basically they know that the bubble is going to pop and are changing the rules so that pensions and retail investors have to eat the losses before they cash out. These rules were made after the dotcom crash when retail got massively destroyed and so many people saw their retirement savings go up in smoke.

It's also more than just SpaceX, it's Anthropic and a few others they are trying to unload on retail.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Basically they know that the bubble is going to pop and are changing the rules so that pensions and retail investors have to eat the losses before they cash out. These rules were made after the dotcom crash when retail got massively destroyed and so many people saw their retirement savings go up in smoke.

It's also more than just SpaceX, it's Anthropic and a few others they are trying to unload on retail.

Right.

But is that what they're actually saying out loud?

[JPhillips]

I saw that 19% of new car loans have payments exceeding 1000/month. WTF? I've never been close to half that.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Right.

But is that what they're actually saying out loud?

They're saying it's a unique opportunity to get in at the ground floor of exciting businesses. Just like Pets.com and Blucora 25 years ago.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I saw that 19% of new car loans have payments exceeding 1000/month. WTF? I've never been close to half that.

Interest rates are high and car prices are crazy since we banned Chinese vehicles. Not to mention dealership middleman crap.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I saw that 19% of new car loans have payments exceeding 1000/month. WTF? I've never been close to half that.

Have you been car shopping lately? We ended up significantly higher than I've ever paid last time we needed one. I wanted a pickup truck with a crew cab but even trucks with 180k+ miles are still like 25-30k. Anything relatively new is a house payment.

[JPhillips]

We bought a used Hyundai last Fall and have a payment under 400. I know there are very expensive cars out there, I just don't understand why people pay that much. I'm happy with reliable and affordable.

[RainMaker]

The whole car buying experience sucks too. I have great credit and go in to buy my last car. Salesman comes out and says "I can get you 7.5%". I say "no thanks, my bank will do it for 5%". He comes back and says he can do it at 6.5%, then 5.5%, etc. Just a silly game to get more money out of me.

Then they tried to sneak some VIN etching scam into the deal right before I signed. They moved it from a 36 month loan to a 60 month loan right before I signed which I caught. And that's on top of the hard sales pitch for extended warranty, paint protection, etc.

Price aside, it's just such a fucking miserable experience to buy a car in this country and having to dodge every scammy game dealers play. Ditching the dealership model would immediately make everything better.

[JPhillips]

Yes. The first car we looked at had an advertised price and then they added almost 100% to the purchase price. We left that dealer. The Honda place we went to was much easier. I can accept them charging whatever they want, but the scaminess of many dealers is really irritating.

On our first car purchase, we got hit with them slipping an extra year on the loan and we didn't catch it.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We bought a used Hyundai last Fall and have a payment under 400. I know there are very expensive cars out there, I just don't understand why people pay that much. I'm happy with reliable and affordable.

I bought my new Hyundai on Amazon last year. Very smooth deal. No surprise fees or expenses. Only had to go down to the local car dealership to sign paperwork.

I like that you can see what different dealerships are charging for the same car.

[JPhillips]

Goldman is projecting SpaceX AI will increase revenue 100 times by 2030. Not 100%, 100 times. 3.2 bil to 322 bil.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I saw that 19% of new car loans have payments exceeding 1000/month. WTF? I've never been close to half that.

The average age of a new car buyer as risen in the past few years. Right now it about is 52 years. They're likely to have more income and savings than your past average buyer.

[Lathum]

We will be buying a new car next year for the first time in 14 years and I’ll be 52.

[albionmoonlight]

Our 2009 minivan finally just got a problem where repairing it does not make financial sense. So we are now suddenly in the lightly used car market.

One thing about driving cars into the ground is that when they finally die and you are forced to upgrade, you end up feeling like you are driving the Starship Enterprise because you jump ahead over a decade in technology.

[Fidatelo]

I'm at the point where I want to jump back a decade in technology. My son wrote off our 2012 CR-V over the winter and we picked up a 2023 HR-V to replace it. It's a nice enough little car but screw off with the touch screen, push button start, lane assist, super bright lights plus auto-brights, cruise-control auto-slowdown, etc. And this thing is still pretty basic compared to the truly tech-filled bullshit on the road these days.


I just want a fucking car that drives well and has very basic features (for nowadays): cruise control, power windows/locks, air conditioning, and a bluetooth-capable stereo. Heated seats and steering wheel are a super nice luxury that I appreciate up here in the north but would forgo if it means avoiding all the other garbage.

[Kodos]

I prefer a car that uses an old-fashioned key. And doesn't track everywhere that I go.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I prefer a car that uses an old-fashioned key. And doesn't track everywhere that I go.

100%. And why the fuck does my truck have a goddamn dial for a gear shift? What a stupid concept.


I think the world peaked in about 2010-2015 and it's all been downhill since.

[Mota]

We have a 2025 Camry and it was a disaster at the drive-in for my son. Couldn't turn the lights off when running (legal obligation in Canada), and when in accessory mode, it defaulted to the hybrid battery which can't handle it and it would turn the car on every 10-15 minutes. I bet he wasn't popular at the drive-in with the LED lights illuminating the screen over and over again.

[RainMaker]

Bring back actual knobs and buttons. I don't want to use a touchscreen to crank the A/C. The only good feature is Bluetooth and letting me control the volume from the steering wheel.