COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[Thomkal]

Thinking about you and your grandmother Spleen. I might go ahead and get tested given the situation.

[Thomkal]

Marvel Comics gets into the "things to help you get through all your free time" with 12 free comics available through their app and may be more next month:


Marvel Is Giving Away 12 Free Comics To Help You Pass The Time At Home - GameSpot

[thesloppy]

So sorry Spleen. Hope everything works out for the best.

[Thomkal]

Boris Johnson is in the ICU in England

[albionmoonlight]

Smallish piece of good news: a couple of different models now have North Carolina not exceeding the capacity of both hospital beds and ICU beds at the projected peak. Our social distancing measures are working.

This has been the most disruptive event of my life, so it is good to see that it is almost certainly saving lives.

[IlliniCub]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Marvel Comics gets into the "things to help you get through all your free time" with 12 free comics available through their app and may be more next month:


Marvel Is Giving Away 12 Free Comics To Help You Pass The Time At Home - GameSpot

For those that love comics and don't have it. The marvel unlimited yearly subscription and a large tablet is well worth it. That and the DC equivalent have kept me sane during these times.

[Kodos]

Sending good thoughts your grandmother's way, Spleen. What a scary time. Hang in there.

[Lathum]

I was looking at my TV bill and realized I am paying $25/month for sports related services. Cancelling those now

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Smallish piece of good news: a couple of different models now have North Carolina not exceeding the capacity of both hospital beds and ICU beds at the projected peak. Our social distancing measures are working.

This has been the most disruptive event of my life, so it is good to see that it is almost certainly saving lives.

The model on healthdata.org has been relatively positive overall & looked even better with an update yesterday (I think the projected deaths in the US went from ~100-180k to ~80-140K from the previous model 4 days ago).

COVID-19

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

The model on healthdata.org has been relatively positive overall & looked even better with an update yesterday (I think the projected deaths in the US went from ~100-180k to ~80-140K from the previous model 4 days ago).

COVID-19

I've been following that and it's nice to see they moved Washington's peak up to the 2nd, which means we're 4 days past the peak here.

I think Inslee has handled this as well as anyone could have. The only mistake he made was made irrelevant one day later. He initially only canceled school for King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties rather than the entire state. That was naive thinking, but he reversed course the next day.

He has a press conference scheduled for 2:30 with the State Superintendent of Schools and I'm guessing schools are going to be closed for the rest of the year.

It was also announced this morning that UW is starting trials on hydroxychloroquine.

EDIT: and, as expected, all in school learning for the year has been canceled.

[whomario]

If anybody wants to follow the developments at a glance and what the process is re: medications and trials

COVID-19 drug development - Wikipedia

[IlliniCub]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I was looking at my TV bill and realized I am paying $25/month for sports related services. Cancelling those now

I did the same canceled my youtubetv and Dazn until this is over.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by whomario

If anybody wants to follow the developments at a glance and what the process is re: medications and trials

COVID-19 drug development - Wikipedia

Thanks.

FWIW

Notes on hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine

On 28 March 2020, the US FDA enabled use of oral tablets of chloroquine phosphate or hydroxychloroquine sulfate under an emergency use authorization at the discretion of physicians treating people with COVID-19.[101] The FDA official stated "that it is reasonable to believe that the known and potential benefits of chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate, when used for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 and used consistently with the Scope of Authorization of this letter (Section II), outweigh the known and potential risks of these products."[101]

Preliminary results had found that chloroquine may be effective and safe in treating COVID-19 associated pneumonia.[32][102][103] The Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology and the Guangdong Provincial Health and Health Commission issued a report stating that chloroquine phosphate "improves the success rate of treatment and shortens the length of patient's hospital stay" and recommended it for people diagnosed with mild, moderate and severe cases of novel coronavirus pneumonia.[104]

Chloroquine has been recommended by Chinese, South Korean and Italian health authorities for the treatment of COVID-19,[105] although these agencies and the US CDC noted contraindications for people with heart disease or diabetes.[32][106] In February 2020, both drugs were shown to effectively reduce COVID-19 illness, but a further study concluded that hydroxychloroquine was more potent than chloroquine and had a more tolerable safety profile.[103][107] Preliminary results from a trial indicated that chloroquine is effective and safe in COVID-19 pneumonia, "improving lung imaging findings, promoting a virus-negative conversion, and shortening the disease course."[102] Hydroxychloroquine is more commonly available than chloroquine in the United States.[32]

According to the US CDC, either chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine is recommended for treatment of hospitalized people infected by COVID-19 in several countries, although there is no such evidence from clinical trials in the United States, as of March 2020.[32][101] Preliminary clinical trials to evaluate the safety and efficacy of hydroxychloroquine for treating COVID-19 infection are planned in the United States, but the CDC stated that "the use, dosing, or duration of hydroxychloroquine for prophylaxis or treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection" were not yet established.[32]

[IlliniCub]

I read a lot of promising stuff about Hydroxychloroquine well before the president ever mentioned it, in research papers. Still very early to know for sure but a lot of doctors are positive on its use. I will say the stuff I read makes it seem like it should be used at earlier stages than what we are pushing. Still too early to know anything for sure yet though.

[Edward64]

Good for you Bill.

Wonder what all the multi-billionaires are doing for the cause. Chip in $50M here and there and it'll add up.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bi...?mod=home-page

Microsoft Corp. MSFT, +7.43% co-founder Bill Gates said his foundation will spend billions of dollars to fund the construction of factories for the most promising efforts to develop a vaccine to combat the novel coronavirus.

Mr. Gates, a billionaire philanthropist who is one the richest people in the world, said the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation will work with seven makers of a possible vaccine to build these factories. Mr. Gates, who announced the efforts in an appearance on “The Daily Show With Trevor Noah” Thursday, acknowledged that billions of dollars would be wasted on vaccines that won’t pan out.

“Our early money can accelerate things,” Mr. Gates said. “Even though we’ll end up picking at most two of them, we’re going to fund factories for all seven, just so that we don’t waste time in serially saying which vaccine works and then building the factory.”

A representative for the Gates foundation didn’t respond immediately to a request for comment. In March, the foundation announced a $125 million effort to identify and develop treatments for Covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by panerd

I'm not sure there is a financial stake, more wanting to be the hero is my guess with the miracle drug.

A Pharma-funded group tied to a top Trump donor has been pushing Trump to approve the use of hydroxychloroquine for treating COVID-19. https://t.co/nwyd0hYEWR

— Citizens for Ethics (@CREWcrew) April 6, 2020

[Ryche]

Colorado is maybe past its peak as well, last three days have been lower than the previous highs for deaths and hospitalizations. Glad I'm not the one who has to decide upon the next steps if the trend continues though.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Good for you Bill.

Wonder what all the multi-billionaires are doing for the cause. Chip in $50M here and there and it'll add up.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bi...?mod=home-page

This is good and it's the kind of thing a coordinated global response should have committed to. Maybe some billionaires will save us, but we the collapse of the democratic global order is a potential catastrophe.

[tarcone]

Missouri is 2-3 weeks away from its peak. Going to be a long month.

[henry296]

PA has had about the same number of new cases the last three days.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Colorado is maybe past its peak as well, last three days have been lower than the previous highs for deaths and hospitalizations. Glad I'm not the one who has to decide upon the next steps if the trend continues though.

I wonder how that compares, tho, to the testing rate.



SI

[whomario]

Doctors Say Hospitals Are Stopping Them From Wearing Masks : NPR

Doctors lacking PPE 'bullied' into treating Covid-19 patients | Coronavirus outbreak | The Guardian

The lack if ressources sucks but is ultimately semi-understandable. But people in power bullying others into 'sucking it up' ? Nah.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I wonder how that compares, tho, to the testing rate.



SI

Testing rate isn't fast enough, pretty much only testing the sickest and who they've exposed at this point.

Stay at home extended to April 26

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ryche

Testing rate isn't fast enough, pretty much only testing the sickest and who they've exposed at this point.

Stay at home extended to April 26

I mean, we've seen some raw numbers drop in places where they went from trying to test everyone to "oh crap, we're overwhelmed and can only test the sickest in the hospitals for triage".


SI

[RainMaker]

It does seem like the shelter in place orders are working. Went from scary growth to maybe this thing flattening.

[panerd]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

A Pharma-funded group tied to a top Trump donor has been pushing Trump to approve the use of hydroxychloroquine for treating COVID-19. https://t.co/nwyd0hYEWR

— Citizens for Ethics (@CREWcrew) April 6, 2020

It's a generic drug. Dont get me wrong Trump wants to be the guy that brought us the miracle drug for sure but the conspiracy is a little out there for his top donor making all this money off a generic.

[whomario]

Pretty stark report from the Chair of New York City Council health committee.

Mark D. Levine on Twitter: "NYC’s healthcare system is being pushed to the limit.

And sadly, now so is the city’s system for managing our dead. And it, too, needs more resources.

This has big implications for grieving families. And for all of us. 1/"

It’s not just deaths in hospitals which are up. On an average day before this crisis there were 20-25 deaths at home in NYC. Now in the midst of this pandemic the number is 200-215. *Every day*

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee

(The 2nd quote abSummary of the tweets via worldometer for those not fans of twitter)

[grdawg]

Originally Posted by IlliniCub

I read a lot of promising stuff about Hydroxychloroquine well before the president ever mentioned it, in research papers. Still very early to know for sure but a lot of doctors are positive on its use. I will say the stuff I read makes it seem like it should be used at earlier stages than what we are pushing. Still too early to know anything for sure yet though.

I saw an interview with that doctor in New York that was prescribing that with Azithromycin and zinc and he was prescribing it early on and said it was preventing hospitalizations. Other drs have posted that they were having success as well, but it seems the zinc is important with it. Hopefully as the clinical trials keep going something will emerge or prove all of this works. I think there are 102 different trails going on at the moment for various drugs

[whomario]

Originally Posted by grdawg

I saw an interview with that doctor in New York that was prescribing that with Azithromycin and zinc and he was prescribing it early on and said it was preventing hospitalizations. Other drs have posted that they were having success as well, but it seems the zinc is important with it. Hopefully as the clinical trials keep going something will emerge or prove all of this works. I think there are 102 different trails going on at the moment for various drugs

The problem as far as 'knowing' is that this implies the doctor knew they would have otherwise would have needed to be hospitalised. Which the consensus simply is that you can't tell, not by physical examination or based on symptoms anyway. Many if not the majority of patients seem to be doing ok right up to the point where they aren't anymore.

And the vast majority never needs a hospital, even among those with symptoms

It's worth trying every drug that shows promise, but concentrating on one on such flimsy evidence just isn't good practice. But yeah, like you said the process of figuring out all the contenders thankfully is not something Trump can decide and thus is happening anyway.

That early studies with Limited sample size reduce conflicting results is entirely normal of course, but there are multiple studies on Hydroxychloroquine that concluded it does not work, too.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by grdawg

I saw an interview with that doctor in New York that was prescribing that with Azithromycin and zinc and he was prescribing it early on and said it was preventing hospitalizations. Other drs have posted that they were having success as well, but it seems the zinc is important with it. Hopefully as the clinical trials keep going something will emerge or prove all of this works. I think there are 102 different trails going on at the moment for various drugs

Good old Z-Pak. That's what I ask my doctor & dentist for when they try to prescribe me amoxicillin.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by grdawg

I saw an interview with that doctor in New York that was prescribing that with Azithromycin and zinc and he was prescribing it early on and said it was preventing hospitalizations. Other drs have posted that they were having success as well, but it seems the zinc is important with it. Hopefully as the clinical trials keep going something will emerge or prove all of this works. I think there are 102 different trails going on at the moment for various drugs

The Dr. here in Orange County that Hannity relies on was making that claim, but he was giving it to patients with no symptoms and then if they weren't hospitalized within a couple of weeks he was counting that as success. In Orange County, though, we still have less than one percent of the population confirmed positive and of those positive the hospitalization rate is under twenty percent.

Trials are happening all over the globe. By May we'll have some answers, but even if it has some benefit, it isn't likely to be a miracle cure. It will be another tool in the arsenal.

[IlliniCub]

Zinc is known to have natural antiviral properties. I've been taking it.

[Neon_Chaos]

Day 23 of lockdown. The Philippine government has extended it by two more weeks, until April 30. Hope you guys are keeping safe!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Neon_Chaos

Day 23 of lockdown. The Philippine government has extended it by two more weeks, until April 30. Hope you guys are keeping safe!

Thanks, same to you.

I guess there are a lot of layoffs also for retail stores, restaurants etc.? How's the food supply situation?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by panerd

It's a generic drug. Dont get me wrong Trump wants to be the guy that brought us the miracle drug for sure but the conspiracy is a little out there for his top donor making all this money off a generic.

He also owns a financial stake in the company that makes it. I have a feeling so do most of the people advising him.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/u....co/k6WemZU7tN

[RainMaker]

Sen. David Perdue bought stock in company producing PPE after briefing - Business Insider

Another Senator. Foreign intelligence services should just follow trading patterns of our politicians.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I was looking at my TV bill and realized I am paying $25/month for sports related services. Cancelling those now

Sky over here have been pretty good TBH - they’ve allowed you to opt out of paying but retain all the channels until live sport comes back.

There’s not that much on obviously, mostly reruns, occasional virtual event, but it’s good PR to get something for nothing for a short time.

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I mean, we've seen some raw numbers drop in places where they went from trying to test everyone to "oh crap, we're overwhelmed and can only test the sickest in the hospitals for triage".


SI

It seems that is the case in a number of places, so following death numbers seems to be the best indicator - if they have dropped for three days in an area as per the OP, that can only be a good sign.

UK deaths have been relatively significantly lower than the trend on each of the last three Mondays, including yesterday. I can’t think of any reason why that would be the case, must just be a statistical quirk?

[whomario]

Originally Posted by AlexB

It seems that is the case in a number of places, so following death numbers seems to be the best indicator - if they have dropped for three days in an area as per the OP, that can only be a good sign.

UK deaths have been relatively significantly lower than the trend on each of the last three Mondays, including yesterday. I can’t think of any reason why that would be the case, must just be a statistical quirk?

With how little the UK stll tests, there is bound to be quirks and not even everybody dying in hospital might been actually tested (if a patient was not tested but assumed two weeks ago and had to be put on a ventilator , there is little reason to diagnose him)
Interestingly last week Sa/Sun/Mon also saw a downward trend, Italy 2 weeks ago went from 800 to 600 only to them go to 900.

Just to early to tell, even putting aside not even bothering to test/count those dying at home or in facilities, which is a significant portion if you consider numbers and stories coming out of NYC, Bergamo or France (who started at least trying to count them and been retroactively beemnadding 3-500 for days now). Here we also have been getting higher death counts as more people get infected and die in homes and fully expect that to continue as long as there are PPE shortages for those homes

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by AlexB

It seems that is the case in a number of places, so following death numbers seems to be the best indicator - if they have dropped for three days in an area as per the OP, that can only be a good sign.

UK deaths have been relatively significantly lower than the trend on each of the last three Mondays, including yesterday. I can’t think of any reason why that would be the case, must just be a statistical quirk?

Strangely enough the BBC have explained this in an article this morning - it takes more time for weekend deaths to be registered and counted, so Monday figures are essentially artificially low.

Coronavirus: Warning over daily death figures - BBC News

[CrimsonFox]

meanwhile in Ohio asshat fucktubes are still attending megachurch events saying they are covered in blood.

uh huh...
that's right.

I'm not coming out till fricking December

[spleen1015]

Just want to thank everyone again for their thoughts and prayers. I appreciate you guys.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by AlexB

Strangely enough the BBC have explained this in an article this morning - it takes more time for weekend deaths to be registered and counted, so Monday figures are essentially artificially low.

Coronavirus: Warning over daily death figures - BBC News

Can be seen in the dutch and swedish numbers as well today.

Also, Belgium accumulated at least a partial count of deaths in retirement homes today.

All 3 are up there with France or Spain/Italy anyway adjusting for population, just not talked about as much because less 'interesting'. Not that anybody could really help them now, but still ...

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

He also owns a financial stake in the company that makes it. I have a feeling so do most of the people advising him.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/u....co/k6WemZU7tN

I would argue that you may as well. From what I've read, Trump's ownership in Sanofi is through a mutual fund. Sanofi is a major pharmaceutical company (they make Allegra, Maalox, Nasacort, and a lot of major vaccines).

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by whomario

Can be seen in the dutch and swedish numbers as well today.

I look at the numbers every day and for the past 7 or so, they've actually shown the actual date of 'positive tested', 'hospitalization' and 'date of death'. It gives a slightly better picture of what's going on. As a result, I've been mostly ignoring the today minus 2 or 3 figures and just looking at what it was before the last 3 or so days.

[JPhillips]

Looks like there's enough data now to say NYC is on a downward slope. Deaths, though, are up and may stay up for a while.

[whomario]

Apparently, according to a german expert, another shortage coming into play in some countries now is actually getting enough oxygen to run the ventilators because of how many have to be operated continously ... Sedatives, too ... Seriously, when it rains it pours ...

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

I look at the numbers every day and for the past 7 or so, they've actually shown the actual date of 'positive tested', 'hospitalization' and 'date of death'. It gives a slightly better picture of what's going on. As a result, I've been mostly ignoring the today minus 2 or 3 figures and just looking at what it was before the last 3 or so days.

True, was more referring to the 'collection sites' most here will look (like worldometer) and wanted to point out that in the 'fineprint' todays extremely high number can be explained because the official dutch source (RIVM) points out that

There is a delay between the day of death and the day that death is reported

(As an aside, when did google translate get so good/coherent ? Totally missed that development )

[whomario]

731 confirmed deaths with Covid19 yesterday in New York city + state), the daily average of all causes in 2017 was 425 unless i read/calculated wrong ... Add the 175+ the chair of the health commision reports as excess deaths at home and that's comfortably twice as many from/with one disease

[Thomkal]

So we did an online order with Publix today to try to cover some of the stuff we didn't get from Walmart's curbside pickup order and let me tell you what a difference it was.



Walmart tried to substitute things, but you couldn't reject them until you went to get your order. Still a few out-of-stock stuff, though they did do a good job of letting you know when you checked out online what was not available. I'm certainly not going to complain given the situation we are all in. I had to wait until the next day to get it



Publix on the other hand, not 5 mins after I had finalized the order was texted me letting me know they were starting the order and who was doing it. I got a chance when I sent the order in to say what I would accept for a substiution. She texted me as she gathered the order to let me know what was out of stock and tried to offer me substiutions with pictures from her phone or a online link.



Delivery was for that same day and got a text soon saying the order was done and on the way, it included a picture of her and directions from us on where to put the bags. A delivery tip was part of the checkout and a delivery fee ($4) added. She was here very quickly with the order.



So much less hassle and stress involved than with Walmart-I would go with Publix if you have that option in your area.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

So we did an online order with Publix today to try to cover some of the stuff we didn't get from Walmart's curbside pickup order and let me tell you what a difference it was.



Walmart tried to substitute things, but you couldn't reject them until you went to get your order. Still a few out-of-stock stuff, though they did do a good job of letting you know when you checked out online what was not available. I'm certainly not going to complain given the situation we are all in. I had to wait until the next day to get it



Publix on the other hand, not 5 mins after I had finalized the order was texted me letting me know they were starting the order and who was doing it. I got a chance when I sent the order in to say what I would accept for a substiution. She texted me as she gathered the order to let me know what was out of stock and tried to offer me substiutions with pictures from her phone or a online link.



Delivery was for that same day and got a text soon saying the order was done and on the way, it included a picture of her and directions from us on where to put the bags. A delivery tip was part of the checkout and a delivery fee ($4) added. She was here very quickly with the order.



So much less hassle and stress involved than with Walmart-I would go with Publix if you have that option in your area.

This might be a YMMV thing.

We got Publix delivery, and there were a fair amount of substitutions that we would not have approved had they asked us (non-dairy ice cream when they were out of regular ice cream, etc.).

We've been much happier with the Harris Teeter pickup system.

With all the crazy going on, it probably has to do with the competence/dedication of the person doing it for them. I can't imagine stores are in a position to train people, etc. right now.