2011 MLB Thread

[Ksyrup]

1982 was probably my favorite baseball year growing up. I was 11 and discovered Strat-O-Matic and played the shit out of the 1982 cards. I still have some guys' stats from that season burned into my brain solely from looking at those cards.

I remember playing the Phillies season all the way through, keeping meticulous stats in a notebook. I even went so far as to do splits (home/away, LH/RH, etc.).

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I refuse to believe this is real. This is what will happen at the new Marlins stadium after a HR:

That's gotta be a fake, right? Or maybe just a little silly thing atop a scoreboard. That would be (unintentionally) awesome if it were 100' tall and sponsored by a local casino.






... or head shop ("This Hanley Ramirez Home Run brought to you by Bizarre Bazaar, for all of your smoking needs!")

SI

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

KenTremendous Ken Tremendous
Imagine right now signing A-Rod to a 6yr/$143m contract.

I'd still prefer it to single-worst contract left in baseball - Ryan Howard's got 6 years and $138M left.

[Ksyrup]

Howard may decline and not be worth the money, but so far he's proven to be durable. ARod may be good for 100 games a year the way he's going...maybe.

I hated the Howard deal with minute it was announced. I'm just hoping he doesn't morph into 2011 Adam Dunn.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

That's gotta be a fake, right? Or maybe just a little silly thing atop a scoreboard. That would be (unintentionally) awesome if it were 100' tall and sponsored by a local casino.






... or head shop ("This Hanley Ramirez Home Run brought to you by Bizarre Bazaar, for all of your smoking needs!")

SI

Fangraphs:

Would this be the output if Poseidon sexually assaulted Jimmy Buffett?

[Ksyrup]

The good thing is, they don't need to search for their own Bernie Brewer. This guy's looking for a job:

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Howard may decline and not be worth the money, but so far he's proven to be durable. ARod may be good for 100 games a year the way he's going...maybe.

I hated the Howard deal with minute it was announced. I'm just hoping he doesn't morph into 2011 Adam Dunn.

Im not sure when the current MLBPA deal is up but Id guess guarenteed contracts is one of the key topics they discuss. These owners are getting crushed on these deals. Pujols wont decline as rapidly as most but he is the next(along with Fielder) in the long line of owners getting crushed on these long term deals.

Even a player like Joe Mauer who signed his when he was 26 is making these contracts look like an awful investment.

[Crapshoot]

That's ridiculous. The owners are making money hand over fist, and 6 years of player control before free agency only reinforces that. I would never blame a player for taking a giant contract, but of course they make it up on the back end of their careers.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Howard may decline and not be worth the money, but so far he's proven to be durable. ARod may be good for 100 games a year the way he's going...maybe.

I hated the Howard deal with minute it was announced. I'm just hoping he doesn't morph into 2011 Adam Dunn.

I'd prefer A-Rod honestly. Right now, give me those 2 contracts side to side, and I take A-Rod without a second thought. Howard's deal is the single-worst contract in the major leagues, paying superstar money for a slightly above average 1B.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

That's ridiculous. The owners are making money hand over fist, and 6 years of player control before free agency only reinforces that. I would never blame a player for taking a giant contract, but of course they make it up on the back end of their careers.

What is ridiculous?

You dont think the owners will bring this up during labor negotiations? Im all for the players getting what they can but its coming to an end.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

What is ridiculous?

You dont think the owners will bring this up during labor negotiations? Im all for the players getting what they can but its coming to an end.

No, its not. Player contracts will continue to increase, as they should, since MLB revenues are growing rapidly. Unlike the NFL, the MLBPA won';t roll over for a bunch of rich billionaires who decide they want to be richer. Everyone is making money right now.

[cartman]

C'mon MLB and Fox. Tell us what time the game will be tomorrow. I've got some schedule juggling to do based on what time the game will be!

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by cartman

C'mon MLB and Fox. Tell us what time the game will be tomorrow. I've got some schedule juggling to do based on what time the game will be!

Im seeing 3 EDT posted however if its the only game being played I would assume it would be in primetime.

[cartman]

On the MLB page, it still says TBA:

2011 Postseason | MLB.com: Schedule

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by cartman

On the MLB page, it still says TBA:

2011 Postseason | MLB.com: Schedule

The time probably isnt out. I would assume tomorrow night at 8 EDT then. Here is where I seen 3.

Las Vegas Odds, Sports Scores, Betting Lines at ScoresAndOdds.com for NCAA College Football, NHL Hockey, Canada Football, WNBA Basketball, MLB Baseball - 10/07/2011

[jbergey22]

I noticed on the channel lineup guide it has 730 EDT blocked off for ALCS game 1. So Id feel confident that it is starting at 8EDT tomorrow night.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by cartman

C'mon MLB and Fox. Tell us what time the game will be tomorrow. I've got some schedule juggling to do based on what time the game will be!

I saw 1 PM posted on a Tigs forum. No idea if that is true. Seems weird to do it like that.

[Rizon]

Only 2 of the top 10 payrolls in the MLB are still in the playoffs.

[dfisher]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

I'd prefer A-Rod honestly. Right now, give me those 2 contracts side to side, and I take A-Rod without a second thought. Howard's deal is the single-worst contract in the major leagues, paying superstar money for a slightly above average 1B.

Vernon Wells of
7 years/$126M (2008-14)

7 years/$126M (2008-14)
signed extension with Toronto 12/06
$25.5M signing bonus ($8.5M payment each March 1, 2008-10)
08:$0.5M, 09:$1.5M, 10:$12.5M,
11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M

full no-trade clause (waived 1/11)

Wells may opt out of contract after 2011
award bonuses: $0.25M for MVP, $0.2M for WS MVP, $0.15M for LCS MVP, $0.1M for most All-Star votes in league

Wells to donate $143,000 annually to Blue Jays charity
acquired by LA Angels in trade from Toronto 1/21/11 (Jays paid Angels $5M in deal)

Adam Dunn 1b-of
4 years/$56M (2011-14)

4 years/$56M (2011-14)

signed by Chicago White Sox as a free agent 12/3/10
11:$12M, 12:$14M, 13:$15M, 14:$15M

Barry Zito lhp
7 years/$126M (2007-13), plus 2014 club option

7 years/$126M (2007-13), plus 2014 club option

signed by San Francisco as a free agent 12/06 (largest-ever pitcher contract at signing)
07:$10M, 08:$14.5M, 09:$18.5M, 10:$18.5M, 11:$18.5M, 12:$19M, 13:$20M, 14:$18M club option ($7M buyout)
option vests with 200 IP in 2013 or 400 IP in 2012-13 or 600 IP 2011-13
if 2014 option vests, Zito may opt out & receive $3.5M buyout
full no-trade clause
award bonuses:

Cy Young award: $0.5M for winning once, $0.75M for 2nd time, $1M each for 3 or more ($0.2M for placing 2nd in vote, $0.15M for 3rd, $0.1M for 4th, $50,000 for 5th)
MVP: $0.25M for winning, $0.15M for 2nd place in vote, $0.1M for 3rd, $75,000 for 4th, $50,000 for 5th
$0.2M for WS MVP
$0.1M each for Gold Glove, All Star selection, LCS MVP

perks: suite on road trips


All of these are superstar dollars for below replacement level performance. Howard is overrated, but his contract is far from the worst in baseball. He at least makes money back for his team in merchandising and is pretty much the face of the franchise.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by dfisher

All of these are superstar dollars for below replacement level performance. Howard is overrated, but his contract is far from the worst in baseball. He at least makes money back for his team in merchandising and is pretty much the face of the franchise.

Good examples.

Could probably add Alfonso Soriano to your list as well. Im having a hard time thinking of one of these that have turned out well.

Mauer's is looking pretty bad at this point as well. Switching positions and having no power. The Twins basically signed a better version of Casey Kotchman to a 200+ million dollar contract.

[cartman]

The Chan Ho Park contract crippled the Rangers for several years.

[Crapshoot]

DFisher,
those are absolutely worse contracts (Zito in particular) in total. What I'm saying is right now, given the dollars that are owed, you have:

- A-Rod with $143M
- Howard with a $138M
- Werth with $100M
- Wells with $63M
- Zito with $45M

Right now, I think Howard's contract is the worst of what is left. There is no doubt he's a better player than Wells and Zito, but I'd rather have Zito and $50M than Howard.

[cartman]

Here's what the Dallas paper had for a schedule. With the caveat that I haven't seen this anywhere else.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/tex...in-detroit.ece

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

DFisher,
those are absolutely worse contracts (Zito in particular) in total. What I'm saying is right now, given the dollars that are owed, you have:

- A-Rod with $143M
- Howard with a $138M
- Werth with $100M
- Wells with $63M
- Zito with $45M

Right now, I think Howard's contract is the worst of what is left. There is no doubt he's a better player than Wells and Zito, but I'd rather have Zito and $50M than Howard.

Mauer 161 million.

I know Mauer is a fine player but as a Twins fan this contract kills us. He had never shown 10+ home run power until his 1 20+ home run year. His knees are already bad so being a gold glove caliber catcher is probably over. Hes not as bad of a player as the others you mention however hes certainly not worth even close to 23 million a year. If he has to switch to 1st or right field Id say hes a 10-12m per year player. IMO his biggest value was in the position he played.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by cartman

Here's what the Dallas paper had for a schedule. With the caveat that I haven't seen this anywhere else.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/tex...in-detroit.ece

This is the time my sportsbook has as well FYI.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

What is ridiculous?

You dont think the owners will bring this up during labor negotiations? Im all for the players getting what they can but its coming to an end.

I don't see any universe in which guaranteed contracts go away. I guess I'm not seeing the issue here. You act as though players are unilaterally deciding the terms of their agreements. It's a two-way street. What you're really arguing for is to put an artificial stopper on what owners will pay - to help the owners, at the expense of players.

It is no one's fault but team management that the Yankees will give CC Sabathia another 6-8 years after he opts out this year - as a 31 year old, 300 lb'er. Owners can negotiate sensibly without colluding. There's enough statistical evidence to demonstrate a player's career arc that can easily justify not going beyond 4-5 years for a player in his early 30s.

Hell, the Phillies practically handed Howard that extension 18 months before it was even necessary! And it's not like they got a discount, they just tagged on 5 years of market value salary to an existing deal for no fucking reason at all.

They're out of control, alright. Stupid management decisions, that is.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

DFisher,
those are absolutely worse contracts (Zito in particular) in total. What I'm saying is right now, given the dollars that are owed, you have:

- A-Rod with $143M
- Howard with a $138M
- Werth with $100M
- Wells with $63M
- Zito with $45M

Right now, I think Howard's contract is the worst of what is left. There is no doubt he's a better player than Wells and Zito, but I'd rather have Zito and $50M than Howard.

Doesn't Carl Crawford and his 120m or so merit inclusion here?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I don't see any universe in which guaranteed contracts go away. I guess I'm not seeing the issue here. You act as though players are unilaterally deciding the terms of their agreements. It's a two-way street. What you're really arguing for is to put an artificial stopper on what owners will pay - to help the owners, at the expense of players.


They're out of control, alright. Stupid management decisions, that is.

I acted in no such way as I agree with your second statement.

The owners will want to do something about these contracts because they are too stupid to police themselves. The other problem of course has to do with the Yankees/Red Sox.

Yankees/Red Sox can work around having poor long term contracts on their books. The Twins/Blue Jays and many other can not. The Twins were basically forced into signing Mauer to a Yankee type contract in order to keep their fanbase happy after making promises about a new stadium.

The league is what it is but it sucks that signing their best player cripples the team for 8 years.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The owners will want to do something about these contracts because they are too stupid to police themselves.

This has been the issue for years. Why would players agree to anything now? They won't. Owners can bring it up, and it will quickly go away. I haven't even heard the slightest mention of this for the upcoming negotiations.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

This has been the issue for years. Why would players agree to anything now? They won't. Owners can bring it up, and it will quickly go away. I haven't even heard the slightest mention of this for the upcoming negotiations.

Labor negotiations.

Do you think the NBA players wanted to give up their unlimited size contracts in the late 90s? Im sure they were perfectly happy letting the owners pay them.

But yeah, Doesnt sound like it will change this time around.

[Ksyrup]

Do you not understand the difference between the unions? Baseball's is the most powerful. And unlike the NBA, baseball isn't sinking into Bolivian.

I just read an article from some NBA writer suggesting the players should tell Stern to stick it up his ass and stop getting paid artificially low salaries. Said one exec told him Kobe is easily worth $70M a year.

The only reason the NFL doesn't have guaranteed contracts is because of injuries, and a slow, ineffective union way back when.

[gstelmack]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The only reason the NFL doesn't have guaranteed contracts is because of injuries, and a slow, ineffective union way back when.

I'm a fan of the NFL bonus / unguaranteed contract combo that seems like a good compromise.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Do you not understand the difference between the unions? Baseball's is the most powerful. And unlike the NBA, baseball isn't sinking into Bolivian.

I just read an article from some NBA writer suggesting the players should tell Stern to stick it up his ass and stop getting paid artificially low salaries. Said one exec told him Kobe is easily worth $70M a year.

The only reason the NFL doesn't have guaranteed contracts is because of injuries, and a slow, ineffective union way back when.

Lets be honest here. All of the unions are basically powerless if push came to shove. The owners can hold out much longer then the players can who have very few money making years. The owners know very well that Lebron James and Dwayne Wade arent going to throw away their careers in order to make it better for the next generation.

The difference between NBA/NFL and MLB is the prime years for the NBA/NFL players is shorter creating more of an urgency to take a lesser deal.

I dont agree with owners making billions off these players but that is how it is. The league also has to do whats best for the long term survival of the league. The Yankees/Red Sox dont have much value if they dont have anyone to beat up on.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by HiFiRevival

This just shows you don't understand the difference between strong and weak unions. The baseball union destroys the owners at every turn. They run baseball. Things like guaranteed contracts aren't going away, and a salary cap isn't getting introduced, primarily because the union won't allow either.

I understand unions very well thank you.

You must have a failure to realize that these players some of which have 1-2 year careers will not stay with the union if the owners wanted to play hardball. Its easy for the ARods and Jeters to stand their ground. Not so easy for the 24 year old borderline rookies that may never get another chance.

Do you really think that if the owners really wanted something passed they wouldnt get it?

The owners have all the power. They have billions of dollars to sit on. The players are an organization in which very few would be satisfied with what they have done to waste their career on creating a better situation down the road. Players would start crossing and it would eventually crash on them.

The only way for the players to get the power would be creating competition or if someone else created a comparable league. Whats the alternative now? Pujols go to Japan and play for much less than he would get if he just took a shitty MLB deal.

[bronconick]

So, how are you getting the money-making owners to play hardball for two years to keep the Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, and Phillies from being idiots about their own money? The rest seem pretty content with what they have. They can either make a lot of money, or they can spend it to contend.

[cartman]

Just saw that the times are posted.

Series 	Date 	Network 	Air Time (ET)
Game 1 DET @ TEX	Saturday, October 8	FOX	7:30 PM
Game 2 DET @ TEX	Sunday, October 9	FOX	7:00 PM
Game 3 TEX @ DET	Tuesday, October 11	FOX	7:30 PM
Game 4 TEX @ DET	Wednesday, October 12	FOX	4:00 PM
Game 5 TEX @ DET*	Thursday, October 13	FOX	4:00 PM
Game 6 DET @ TEX*	Saturday, October 15	FOX	7:30 PM
Game 7 DET @ TEX*	Sunday, October 16	FOX	7:45 PM

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by bronconick

So, how are you getting the money-making owners to play hardball for two years to keep the Yankees, Cubs, Red Sox, and Phillies from being idiots about their own money? The rest seem pretty content with what they have. They can either make a lot of money, or they can spend it to contend.

That was just a statement on their analysis of how strong the players union is. If they all got together and decided they wanted to pay the players half of what they were making now they would eventually get it. Anyway.

Twins make a plea to the state to get a new stadium because of the claim they need the extra revenue to compete. 2 years later they are in the worst shape they have been in for 12 years. Annoying.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Mauer 161 million.

I know Mauer is a fine player but as a Twins fan this contract kills us. He had never shown 10+ home run power until his 1 20+ home run year. His knees are already bad so being a gold glove caliber catcher is probably over. Hes not as bad of a player as the others you mention however hes certainly not worth even close to 23 million a year. If he has to switch to 1st or right field Id say hes a 10-12m per year player. IMO his biggest value was in the position he played.

Have you looked at an advanced metric lately? Mauer is a 6 win player (he was better than that before this year) at least. The Twins may have overpaid slightly in the back-end, but I'd that contract over A-Rod and Howard and Wells ($63M).

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by stevew

Doesn't Carl Crawford and his 120m or so merit inclusion here?

Good call. Forget about that. I think I'd take the Crawford contract over Wells, and I'd definitely take it over Howard.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I understand unions very well thank you.

You must have a failure to realize that these players some of which have 1-2 year careers will not stay with the union if the owners wanted to play hardball. Its easy for the ARods and Jeters to stand their ground. Not so easy for the 24 year old borderline rookies that may never get another chance.

Do you really think that if the owners really wanted something passed they wouldnt get it?

The owners have all the power. They have billions of dollars to sit on. The players are an organization in which very few would be satisfied with what they have done to waste their career on creating a better situation down the road. Players would start crossing and it would eventually crash on them.

The only way for the players to get the power would be creating competition or if someone else created a comparable league. Whats the alternative now? Pujols go to Japan and play for much less than he would get if he just took a shitty MLB deal.

Just stop - you're wrong on this, wrong on the metrics (what, are you going to judge Mauer on RBI's next?), and wrong on the financials.

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Have you looked at an advanced metric lately? Mauer is a 6 win player (he was better than that before this year) at least. The Twins may have overpaid slightly in the back-end, but I'd that contract over A-Rod and Howard and Wells ($63M).

Is he a 6 win player if he's not playing catcher? Taking his 162 game average and the offensive regression, You're looking at at 13-14 homer guy with an OPS around .810. Would most teams still want that guy if he's playing first or the outfield? Sure. Would they want him for the $23 million a year he's getting? I would hope not.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by cartman

The Chan Ho Park contract crippled the Rangers for several years.

If we're going back to the really stupid days of the late 90s, why not toss in the Colorado two-step of Hampton and Neagle. Those two and Zito seem to set the bar in my mind. Or how about Darren Dreifort? Or a great Howard equivalent: Mo Vaughn

SI

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Just stop - you're wrong on this, wrong on the metrics (what, are you going to judge Mauer on RBI's next?), and wrong on the financials.

WTF are you talking about? I didnt even bring up any metrics.

Atleast if you are going to make up something about metrics that I didnt say get your own information correct.

Mauer had a WAR of 1.8 this year. We can double it since he was hurt if youd like so he was 3.6 last year. I fully understand he had a down season but you didnt want to give Crawford, Werth, or Howard any passes on prior years performance either. In addition when Mauer moves out of the catcher spot his WAR will decline substantially making him more in line with what he was this year as far as WAR is concerned.

Holliday/Tex are similar in OPS+ to Mauer career wise. In playing their respective positions Holliday is normally in that 5-6 range while Tex is in that 3-5 range. So I guess depending on the position Mauer plays and how well he plays it will determine if he is a 3-5 WAR player in the future.

In addition to metrics the eye test will tell you that Mauer is not a good fit for this new park they moved into(atleast for his home run production). He hits a lot of his home runs to left field and now many of them balls that would have been home runs in the metrodome become long flyballs to left field. Him and Morneau both are struggling with this new park. Morneau wont even hit opposite field anymore which is killing him as a hitter as well. He is pulling off the ball which results in a lot of popouts and Ks.

[JPhillips]

Just kill me.

Francesca diagnosed the reason the Yankees didn't advance: Lack of clutch.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Crapshoot

Good call. Forget about that. I think I'd take the Crawford contract over Wells, and I'd definitely take it over Howard.

I doubt Howard or Crawford will ever be worth their respective bounties. From a cash marketing standpoint, I think the next dollar someone spends to see Carl Crawford will be the first. That's assuming his parents are getting comped tickets.

The opportunity of being able to spend similar amounts(as compared to Howard) this offseason on either Pujols or Fielder is the true tragedy of Howard's deal. Both are vastly superior players.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Just kill me.

Francesca diagnosed the reason the Yankees didn't advance: Lack of clutch.

Not "Sabathia can't pitch every game"?

SI