WW XCII Athens -- Destroyed by Wolves!

[Lathum]

dola- will be out for a while but am open to changing my vote if need be

[Abe Sargent]

I thought it was 50/50 like everything else. Hold on.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Pass, can you clarify please?

Phoenixes are chosen randomly, regardless of allegiance. I'll admit that I probably would have done a reroll if both Phoenixes were wolves, but other than that, I didn't care. The only roles with one good and one evil are Historian, Hoplite, and Marathon Runner.

[Abe Sargent]

From the rules:

Phoenix – Each city will have a Phoenix, who will return to their original city if they are killed while in Hades. When they are killed in Athens or Sparta, they will be revealed as a Phoenix, but their allegiance will not be revealed.


You are right. Awesome! I thought it was like everything else but it does not appear to be so! Excellent! That makes my RR pretty good.

[Abe Sargent]

Damnit Pass, you had to go and ruin my happy times!

Well, then consider my RR to whatever degree you do or do not.

[Abe Sargent]

That's ok Pass, I loves you anyway

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Damnit Pass, you had to go and ruin my happy times!

Well, then consider my RR to whatever degree you do or do not.

Heh, I thought I was helping! But I've been having trouble following arguments all over the place in this game.

[Abe Sargent]

So in other words, it appears a phoenix has the same chance to be a wolf that everyone else does, but killing me gives you no info at all to use tomorrow. There we go. Less than the 50/50 I thought it was gives me some ray of hope!

[Lathum]

hmmm, something doesn't sit right with me that Abe missed something like that about his alleged role.

[USFLTecmo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

hmmm, something doesn't sit right with me that Abe missed something like that about his alleged role.

Agreed. Not likely moving now.

[Chief Rum]

Pass has already clarified this. It was all among the questions I asked on Day One.

1. The Phoenix can be a wolf (straight from the rules). But the two Phoenix roles are not by definition opposite (as are MRs, Hops, and the Hists).
2. There is no role allegiance connection in the villages (nothing like bad MR==good Phoenix), so there being a bad MR to start has nothing to do with whether Abe is bad or good.

All that said, I lean toward good on Abe. He keeps making questionable reads on the rules (which I find irritating, I'll admit), but other than that, he comes off fine to me. I still don't feel much better about hoops, but that also is just a vibe thing.

But I want to touch on something hoops said that I think we should consider... (next post).

[Chief Rum]

hoops pointed out that some pretty good "rep" players were still around in Lathum, Abe, himself and myself, while Schmidty got the ticket down. he pointed out that in a small game, why would the wolves mess around? They would go after the vets.

So it's a curious move, going for Schmidty first, a good vet player, but one who openly admitted he migth not be around because of the new job, sometimes isn't around anyway, and has a rep for getting into it with people and drawing votes. Even more curious--TheNorm wasn't sent down either, and he's a possible Ephor.

So why Schmidty? Did he say something that would tip off to a role? I did not see anything, but I know that's not my strength. Did any of you see anything? Schmidty didn't really say much. He was also one of our secret voters for Ephor.

Why not Lathum? Veteran player, potential Ephor, didn't get a run of votes on him like normal.
Abe it's clear why not--he was getting votes, why vote off a potential candidate?
Why not me? Aside from rep, I was the one driving conversation as well.
And then there's hoops, which all the danger he represents.

We can't ALL be wolves. Even if one of us is (and I am currently on one of us), others will remain dangerous villagers to vote off. And, yet, it was Schmidty who was voted off.

Does anyone think the wolves wanted to start Hades off with all villagers? I know I wouldn't as a wolf.

No, I am pretty sure that Schmidty is a wolf sent down to start getting Hades set, and that is why he was sent down, above other more obvious choices. And he's not the MR, because he would have gone to Sparta (and we know he did not). So the other wolf we had is probably the evil MR.

[Chief Rum]

BTW, my gut says that if we had a wolf Ephor candidate, that the wolf is the Ephor now, given Schmidty's silent vote, and the likelihood at least three villagers will have voted for the Ephor, with another wolf voting for the wolf Ephor privately, no matter what he said he would do publically.

But I don't think we had a wolf Ephor candidate, if my guess on Schmidty is right (and it's one of the few guesses that makes logical sense). Here's why:

Lathum, I just get a good vibe on. He's said the right things at the right times, not shady. I think he's good. That leaves only TheNorm as a potential Ephor candidate. But if you had two wolves, and they were Schmidty and TheNorm, would you send Schmidty down or TheNorm? I would guess TheNorm--it would not be suspicious, as TheNorm is a potential Ephor, and TheNorm still has his Ephor abilities if it's voted to him, useable Hades.

(Actually, Pass, clarify, please, if the Ephor keeps his abilities even if voted/lynched out of the city that voted him the role, and whether that ability translates only to Athens, or if it then becomes an Ephor role for Hades).

Point is, I don't think the wolves would send down Schmidty, who knows the players, over TheNorm, who's lynch would not raise eyebrows. So I don't think TheNorm is the other wolf.

In my mind, TheNorm, Lathum, PurdueBrad and myself are villagers, and I lean strongly to Abe being a villager as well. And I think the ratio is 7-1 right now villagers to wolves, but it's quite possible we have the EHist here as well.

Possible wolves: hoops (my vote), MartinD, USFLTecmo

And that wolf is the evil MR and will go to Sparta when lynched.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

(Actually, Pass, clarify, please, if the Ephor keeps his abilities even if voted/lynched out of the city that voted him the role, and whether that ability translates only to Athens, or if it then becomes an Ephor role for Hades).

The Ephor keeps his power (if he hasn't used it yet) in Hades, but not if he's a Marathon Runner and runs to the other city.

[hoopsguy]

On for a minute, likely my last post before deadline. Since no one is countering Abe's Phoenix role I'm more than willing to accept it as legit, but that doesn't give us any info on faction. He is not a known good.

Frankly, the only roles that Abe could claim - given the current vote count - that would move me are the seer and bodyguard roles. I guess I still feel like the risk/reward on those is high enough for me to sacrifice and head to Hades. But Phoenix, when it could just as easily be wolf as villager? Nope.

Anyway, I'll come back again if I get another break. But my vote sticks for now.

[Abe Sargent]

I like to think that I've kept alevel head throughout my WW career, and I just just log on for a second, and I have rarely gone off, and I take great pride in that. But, for just a second, I am getting really pissed off that for like 18 games in a row I' am getting fucking heat because I HAVE NOT READ THE FUCKING RULES SO FUCKING THOROUGHLY TO YOUR FUCKING HIGH AND MIGHTY SELVES SO I MUST FUCKING BE A WOLF.

Damn that's fucking annoying. I've never been as annoyed at Blade or AlanT.

Now, that felt good to get out. Of course I'm a villager, and of course you woun''t buy it because some of you act like rules elistists on an unusual set where where oh nows, I misread teh rules (yet again) so i must be a wolf.

Back to normal now. I'm calm, but I really had to let that out. Sheesh you can;t imagine how annoying it is.

[hoopsguy]

For what it is worth, I think wolves read rules more closely than villagers.

Abe, are you willing to take a shot somewhere else with this vote? I'm not of the opinion that you are a wolf and I would rather vote for someone that I think is in fact a wolf.

I would prefer to stay on the group that I listed earlier - USFL, MartinD, or Chief Rum. Or PurdueBrad, as I do not completely buy the argument that he must be the good Marathon Runner. Those would be folks that I would consider making a move because I think they are more likely than you to be a wolf at this point.

[Passacaglia]

This look right to people?

MartinD -- 0
Abe Sargent -- 5 Lathum (276) MartinD (277) PurdueBrad (283) hoopsguy (292) USFLTecmo (295)
hoopsguy -- 2 Chief Rum (278) Abe Sargent (288)

[Abe Sargent]

Unvote hoopsguy
Vote USFL


Just in case it matters.

I'm off to go shopping for supplies with my staff. I will not be back until much later.

[Abe Sargent]

Good luck village!

[Lathum]

I meant no offense or disrespect meant Abe. I consider you one of the more through players in the game, that's why I was surprised.

[Lathum]

Unvote Abe
Vote Hoopsguy

Me and CR have been pretty much on the same page all game.

The thing that struck me with hoops is I just went back and reread the thread right after PB came in. Hoops was pretty curious about what was happening in Sparta.

If Hoops is a wolf he knows PB isn't. I think Hoops may have been trying to get a feel for how the other city is shaping up in regards to who they think is a wolf, etc...

[hoopsguy]

Sigh - if I were a wolf, I would know exactly what is going on in the other city because I could chat with other wolves about it rather than having to do it in the thread.

Your vote change makes it 4-3-1, which means that I'm going to have to sit tight on Abe.

Think about it - why would I offer to change off of Abe when it is a 5-2 margin with him vs me?

Between you and Chief, you are both suggesting really dumb wolf play on my part at just about every turn. If I'm a wolf, particularly on a day where I have extremely limited access, I'm hunkering down here and letting Abe get lynched.

But I'm not a wolf and I do not think that Abe is one either. Lathum, I think that you are on the wrong team here because CR seems to be lining up with you in the thread. I'm much more suspicious of him as a wolf than I am of Abe. I just can't do a thing about it without others switching votes because I'm on the block.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Sigh - if I were a wolf, I would know exactly what is going on in the other city because I could chat with other wolves about it rather than having to do it in the thread.

.

while that is a valid point it doesn't mean it isn't a good opporitunity to get a villages perspective.

but it does make sense

[Lathum]

Hoops, who would you switch to?

[Lathum]

Abe, I see you in thread, why the switch to USFL?

[hoopsguy]

Pure risk management? PurdueBrad for the 50/50 shot. I can think of a few reasons that the Marathoner would not want to come out against him and get shipped to Sparta. For starters, he would likely face intense scrutinty there - much more than PB has faced here.

Pure gut? Chief Rum, who seems to have moved from chatty villager on D1 to villager with an agenda on D2. Since that agenda involves going after a villager (me) I'm pretty suspicious of it. Also, he has led the charge for clearing PB in this thread. I think that has as much value in testing as any Abe/TheNorm relationship.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I like to think that I've kept alevel head throughout my WW career, and I just just log on for a second, and I have rarely gone off, and I take great pride in that. But, for just a second, I am getting really pissed off that for like 18 games in a row I' am getting fucking heat because I HAVE NOT READ THE FUCKING RULES SO FUCKING THOROUGHLY TO YOUR FUCKING HIGH AND MIGHTY SELVES SO I MUST FUCKING BE A WOLF.

Damn that's fucking annoying. I've never been as annoyed at Blade or AlanT.

Now, that felt good to get out. Of course I'm a villager, and of course you woun''t buy it because some of you act like rules elistists on an unusual set where where oh nows, I misread teh rules (yet again) so i must be a wolf.

Back to normal now. I'm calm, but I really had to let that out. Sheesh you can;t imagine how annoying it is.

I'm leaning toward quitting. Gonna think about it. See ya.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pure risk management? PurdueBrad for the 50/50 shot. I can think of a few reasons that the Marathoner would not want to come out against him and get shipped to Sparta. For starters, he would likely face intense scrutinty there - much more than PB has faced here.

I find it hard to believe you think voting out PB is a good move considering no one has come out against him.

I see zero reason the marathon runner in our city wouldn't come out if he was a villager

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

I like to think that I've kept alevel head throughout my WW career, and I just just log on for a second, and I have rarely gone off, and I take great pride in that. But, for just a second, I am getting really pissed off that for like 18 games in a row I' am getting fucking heat because I HAVE NOT READ THE FUCKING RULES SO FUCKING THOROUGHLY TO YOUR FUCKING HIGH AND MIGHTY SELVES SO I MUST FUCKING BE A WOLF.

Damn that's fucking annoying. I've never been as annoyed at Blade or AlanT.

Now, that felt good to get out. Of course I'm a villager, and of course you woun''t buy it because some of you act like rules elistists on an unusual set where where oh nows, I misread teh rules (yet again) so i must be a wolf.

Back to normal now. I'm calm, but I really had to let that out. Sheesh you can;t imagine how annoying it is.

Abe, I feel you from what happened to me in Sparta and this is not so much of a I don't think Abe is a wolf move as I don't like doing to Abe basically what I felt was done to me.

unvote Abe.

[hoopsguy]

Also, I recognize that those are not the answers that you want to hear, Lathum, since you distrust me + Abe more than you do Chief (and, by proxy, PB) based on your posts in the thread.

The PB = trusted is the other "groupthink" idea that I alluded to yesterday. I do not trust the logic in that has been used to put him in the cleared category. I think there are quite a few reasons that the Marathoner might want to sit tight and hope that we get the vote right. But I'm puzzled by the fact that no one is voting for PB; I would have expected at least one person to put some real pressure on him in the thread if they knew he was a wolf.

[Lathum]

Unvote Hoops


sigh, I am at a loss

[PurdueBrad]

I don't want to make a tie and lose two (that's what happens in a tie if you guys didn't ask) so I'll go to option three:

vote USFL Tecmo

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Also, I recognize that those are not the answers that you want to hear, Lathum, since you distrust me + Abe more than you do Chief (and, by proxy, PB) based on your posts in the thread.

The PB = trusted is the other "groupthink" idea that I alluded to yesterday. I do not trust the logic in that has been used to put him in the cleared category. I think there are quite a few reasons that the Marathoner might want to sit tight and hope that we get the vote right. But I'm puzzled by the fact that no one is voting for PB; I would have expected at least one person to put some real pressure on him in the thread if they knew he was a wolf.

What could the marathon runner possibly have to gain by sitting and waiting?

If we could get a wolf today plus clear a villager in the process how is that not by FAR the logical play?

[PurdueBrad]

There is no value in the marathon runner waiting. I actually would've liked to see them come out just because Sparta is ready for them and then he would be drilled immediately in Hades for being a wolf. I didn't want to lay this out until it really didn't look like he would reveal, but my thoughts are that is why he hasn't revealed.

[PurdueBrad]

Let me rephrase the first sentence, there is huge value for a wolf to wait, no value if the runner is a villager.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I find it hard to believe you think voting out PB is a good move considering no one has come out against him.

I see zero reason the marathon runner in our city wouldn't come out if he was a villager

If PB is a villager, why wouldn't the wolf come out against him? Wouldn't that be easier than sitting back and watching us put PB in as a cleared villager in a small game (9 players), on top of having to worry about traditional villager roles like seer, bodyguard, and duke that are still out thre?

I think that the argument was originally cast in a manner that was pro-PB and that people have followed it without considering the flip side of the argument. I think they would be more than willing to trade 1:1 in this village, knowing that they escape to the other villager if they are lynched before ever going to Hades.

[PurdueBrad]

I explain why in the above post. The guy gets drilled in Sparta and then is f'ed in Hades. It's a quick way for a wolf to lose as the runner.

[PurdueBrad]

This is not like Hoops to not look at both sides IMHO. Usually he walks both lines well, now he's arguing with tunnel vision like I usually do.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If PB is a villager, why wouldn't the wolf come out against him? Wouldn't that be easier than sitting back and watching us put PB in as a cleared villager in a small game (9 players), on top of having to worry about traditional villager roles like seer, bodyguard, and duke that are still out thre?

I think that the argument was originally cast in a manner that was pro-PB and that people have followed it without considering the flip side of the argument. I think they would be more than willing to trade 1:1 in this village, knowing that they escape to the other villager if they are lynched before ever going to Hades.

you really are losing me here.

If the wolves come out against PB they are basically guarenteeing they get killed the next night.

As a wolf I would rather have a trusted villager running around then do a 1-1 trade.

[Lathum]

anyone have a vote count?

[PurdueBrad]

I'm not voting your way but it seems like an odd play for you Hoops. You are usually good at working both sides of an argument. No reveal ALMOST guarantees I'm good. A wolf reveal screws that wolf because Sparta will drill him after you do and then Hades will do the same.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Damn that's fucking annoying. I've never been as annoyed at Blade or AlanT.

Good to see I'm still getting love

[PurdueBrad]

Abe, in case Hoops gets his way and I go in ten minutes, sorry for my part in irritating you.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Abe, in case Hoops gets his way and I go in ten minutes, sorry for my part in irritating you.

I actualy was being complementry in an odd way.

I have asked way more questions the Abe

[Lathum]

Abe Sargent -- 3 MartinD (277) hoopsguy (292) USFLTecmo (295)
hoopsguy -- 2 Chief Rum (278)
USFL- 2 Abe (319), PB(333)

[Lathum]

Fixed

Abe Sargent -- 3 MartinD (277) hoopsguy (292) USFLTecmo (295)
hoopsguy -- 1 Chief Rum (278)
USFL- 2 Abe (319), PB(333)

[Lathum]

am I the only non voter?

[PurdueBrad]

Look, you guys dealt with me venting some (wife heard a lot worse) about yesterday in Sparta so I get Abe here. I don't think a wolf goes off like this and if he fakes it, good for him but it screws him forever beyond this one game I would think. It is kind of a complement but at the same time, when nobody freakin' listens, it sucks more than I can explain (as you all know from various games I'm sure).

[Lathum]

norm, have you voted yet?