Werewolf CXXVII -- The Godfather, VILLAGERS WIN

[Narcizo]

Vote count for the early birds

Jeff061 – Zinto(242) >>
Crimson Fox – tyketime (289)>>
Tyketime 2 – CrimsonFox (290), Darth Vilus (295)>>
Saldana 2 – Eaglefan (294), Narcizo (298)

Left: Jackal, Autumn, JAG, Mckerney, Bhlloy, Danny, Lathum, J23, Saldana, MartinD, Jeff061>>


>>

[Narcizo]

Gah! Forgot about the board doing that to stuff that's cut and pasted from Word.

On a side note - I hate the wolves for killing Chief. Bastards! Who I'm supposed to talk to now?

[bhlloy]

I'm torn between Saldana and Zinto TBH. Sal's vote is the worst and I agree that the reasoning behind it is pretty suspect but I just don't like Zinto's play at all. It's a bigger cop out vote than Sal's and if we are going to trust the 4 that missed the deadline and give them a one day pass, it's the play that I'm least comfortable with. Thoughts?

[bhlloy]

It also sets off a couple of alarm bells that two of the missing four have immediately jumped on tyketime, who has been very unwolflike so far IMO. That's something that strikes me as a little odd. Are they just defensive that he's calling them out or is it more than that?

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Does anyone think it might be more than co-incidence that the two people killed last night were probably in PM contact with each other and one of them might have been in PM contact with someone else? I'm rather surprised that Chief didn't offer more of a defence than he did of mauboy under the circumstances. Anyway, if it turned out that Apollina is a wolf then we would have to look at the votes on mauboy in a different light, not just as a possible save of tyke or mckerney but as motivated by knowledge of mau's role. Which doesn't look good for me but there you go. It seems pretty far-fetched but it might be worth considering once we get more information.

I had thought about that, but I dismissed it because I figured it would've been obvious to CR and Mau that their third PM-mate would've had a vote on him. After thinking about it this morning, you could be right if other wolves helped establish Mau as a candidate. If we learn that to be true (Apollina=wolf), then I think bhlloy looks bad. But after the last two games where the village was burned for following coincidence, I think at this point we're making assumptions without having enough information to take action on it. I do agree with you that it's disappointing that closer to deadline CR or Apollina didnt step up for Mau since he wasn't able to. Sure he might've been a wolf target, but they would've had to sweat a BG block and wouldn't have been eliminated already.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I think Saldana's actions yesterday were questionable. His reasoning for voting mauboy is acceptable early in the day but doesn't really fly that soon before the deadline when it's likely to condemn the person. It's either kinda petty or it's hiding the real reason for voting mau. He then added the reasoning that he wanted to avoid a tied vote but that really came off as an afterthought. Furthermore lynching saldana gives us information. If Saldana turns out to be a wolf then it looks like there was a definite move to bury mau and that is useful information.

I can understand people wanting to go after the no-voters and agree that could easily be a wolf in there but I like to extend trust to people and believe that if they say they genuinely missed the deadline then that's what happened and it's not solely a wolfie ploy to avoid having to commit to a vote. Obviously I'd like to see those people contribute more to make up for yesterday but I don't see the need to drop a vote on one of them to get them to do so.

Vote Saldana

it wasnt an afterthought to me...i just realized it might not have been a thought at all to other people who kept "trying to keep it close". close benefits the wolves a hell of a lot more than it does the village in this game with all the double voting mechanic and ties can be a disaster, so in terms of "burying mau", you bet i was trying to bury mau....i wasnt going to let it stay close enough for a tie...if thats wolfish, whatever, lynch me, i dont have time to fight back this game with the deadline in the middle of my work day.

and as far as bringing up past games, do you have any idea how many votes in the history of WW have been cast on day one as revenge for previous games???!!! it isnt petty, its tradition, and i have always taken it as a sign of respect...ask Dubb how many times he has voted for me on day one.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

I'm torn between Saldana and Zinto TBH. Sal's vote is the worst and I agree that the reasoning behind it is pretty suspect but I just don't like Zinto's play at all.

Difficult to get any sort of bead on Zinto given the lack of posting. Under normal circumstances you'd think putting a vote on mau as late as he did probably points to him being a villager (ironically) - as a wolf is unlikely to want to be seen to be the one sticking the knife into someone he knows is going to come up a villager in 5 minutes time unless he has a very good reason to do so. Given the uncertainty of the votes it could possibly be a wolf move but mostly if tyke is a wolf or the wolves knew mau was Michael, or if Zinto was playing it safe and didn't want to risk taking the blame for lynching two villagers but wanted to get a vote in (although I think most wolves would probably think it's worth the risk, given the uncertainty of the situation). It would have been nice if Zinto had offered some sort of explanation though.

Having put it down like that it's sort of obvious that you can say much the same thing about sal's vote so I don't really know what to make of it.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by saldana

and as far as bringing up past games, do you have any idea how many votes in the history of WW have been cast on day one as revenge for previous games???!!! it isnt petty, its tradition, and i have always taken it as a sign of respect...ask Dubb how many times he has voted for me on day one.

Like I said, I think it's as valid a reason as any at the start of the day but not so much at the point where your decision plays a large part in deciding who lives and dies. (or dies and dies, I guess )

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

It also sets off a couple of alarm bells that two of the missing four have immediately jumped on tyketime, who has been very unwolflike so far IMO. That's something that strikes me as a little odd. Are they just defensive that he's calling them out or is it more than that?

Gee... I guess I would like to know the answer to that as well. I was hoping to spur some conversation, and as I said, Crimson was the only one to post something we could at least use as a starting point. So I put an early vote on him. Then I get two quick votes on me. Crimson's seems very defensive. Darth implies I'm trying to shift the spotlight. I think the intention, as clearly stated, was to get the four of you to be more active.

[The Jackal]

So it turns out I'm a lot busier than I thought I would be between preparing to move, trying to find another job, and losing weight! I'm not purposely playing UTR but it'll probably come off that way. Let me see if I can make an educated vote here.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

It also sets off a couple of alarm bells that two of the missing four have immediately jumped on tyketime, who has been very unwolflike so far IMO. That's something that strikes me as a little odd. Are they just defensive that he's calling them out or is it more than that?

Possible that they are being defensive, but there's also the notion that we'd learn a fair amount about the D1 vote if we find out tyke's allegiance.

[Lathum]

I'm not ready to jump all over the Mau voters yet. The fact of it is you will get scrutiny for going elsewhere with your vote and having it be "meaningless" so you are damned if you do and damned if you dont. I'm willing to give credit and a pass to someone like Sal who at least went out on a limb D1 and didn't bury his vote.

[The Jackal]

Speaking of burying votes, mckerney's vote bugs me a little. I suppose I understand not wanting to risk a tie, but out of the five possible double-vote mechanics, two come into effect if they are on wolves (Connie, Tessio), one is permanent (Sonny), one on an unknown neutral (Moe), and one on a villager (Fredo). That's a lot of possibilities, and mckerney's move ends up feeling like a hidden vote because of it. But I'm not sold on that, just musing.

[The Jackal]

I could see not lynching tyke today, hoping for a seer scan, but he's in my radar just for the purposes of clearing up D1. Otherwise I'm probably looking at early mau voters.

[Danny]

Vote Tyketime

Because of the deadline, and a busy morning at work, I doubt I'll be able to contributed much and may not be back in thread predeadline.

[The Jackal]

I'm going to make it a 3-way of sorts with another 5 hours left. Might end up changing my mind, but at least I'll get a damn vote in today. This is purely conjecture, an idea that if there was at least one wolf on mau, they probably went early. If tyke ends up being a wolf that certainly paints the later votes in a poor light, but we don't know that as of yet, and we know mau was good.

VOTE JEFF

[bhlloy]

Vote Crimson Fox

Let's get three solid candidates on the block including one from the group that was MIA on day one. Not sold on Saldana or Zinto being wolves for the reasons narcizo lays out above and the rest seems to be a bit of a crapshoot right now

[bhlloy]

Lol ok great timing there.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Speaking of burying votes, mckerney's vote bugs me a little. I suppose I understand not wanting to risk a tie, but out of the five possible double-vote mechanics, two come into effect if they are on wolves (Connie, Tessio), one is permanent (Sonny), one on an unknown neutral (Moe), and one on a villager (Fredo). That's a lot of possibilities, and mckerney's move ends up feeling like a hidden vote because of it. But I'm not sold on that, just musing.

I can assure you that I only have a single vote, and as for the reasons for my vote it was the best defensive move I could make. I had two votes on me, mauboy and tyketime both had 3 while tyketime hadn't voted yet (his vote came in before mine, but we were both posting votes at the same time). And I already covered my reasons for not changing, I wasn't inclined to believe mau and it was to close to the deadline to be sure I could change anything while avoiding a tie.

[bhlloy]

So now with Danny's vote we have three of the no shows on day 1 on tyke. Hmmm

[Autumn]

Wow, I didn't mean to be away for so long, but ended up not working last night - which is unusual.

I think Narcizo makes a really good point - I thought it strange that the two killed were related, but had forgotten that Michael was able to PM two different people. I think that's a real possibility that a wolf knew about the two of them, and therefore wanted to eliminate the one left to avoid getting fingered. Interesting possibility.

[mckerney]

Vote Jeff061

Still believe we could find a wolf with mauboy voters, may as well go for one of the early ones.

[Autumn]

Sorry, still catching up, didn't realize there was another page. Looking back it says that Kay and Apolonia could PM Michael "with restrictions" so we don't really even know the mechanic there. They may not have known about him yet even.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I can assure you that I only have a single vote, and as for the reasons for my vote it was the best defensive move I could make. I had two votes on me, mauboy and tyketime both had 3 while tyketime hadn't voted yet (his vote came in before mine, but we were both posting votes at the same time). And I already covered my reasons for not changing, I wasn't inclined to believe mau and it was to close to the deadline to be sure I could change anything while avoiding a tie.

Actually, I misread Autumn's recap. It wasn't your vote that struck me as odd, it was Martin's on you. Sorry about that. I don't hold it against you for not changing your vote that close to the deadline.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Actually, I misread Autumn's recap. It wasn't your vote that struck me as odd, it was Martin's on you. Sorry about that. I don't hold it against you for not changing your vote that close to the deadline.

Ah, gotcha.

[Autumn]

Man, so much for keeping a vote count for today. does anyone have the count and/or history for today? I can go back and build one if not.

[J23]

Jeff061 3 – Zinto(242), The Jackal(316), mckerney(322)
Crimson Fox 2 – tyketime (289), bhlloy(317)
Tyketime 3 – CrimsonFox (290), Darth Vilus (295), Danny(315)
Saldana 2 – Eaglefan (294), Narcizo (298)

Left: Autumn, JAG, Lathum, J23, Saldana, MartinD, Jeff061

[J23]

I think that's correct, but feel free to double check it.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Sorry, still catching up, didn't realize there was another page. Looking back it says that Kay and Apolonia could PM Michael "with restrictions" so we don't really even know the mechanic there. They may not have known about him yet even.

I think it was more dumb luck that the two related roles went on day one. I don't think mauboy would've told each one who the other is if he didn't know if he could trust either of them, and as you mentioned we don't know what the restriction is. Plus if to find a wolf we're looking for Apolonia I don't really see what we have to go on.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I think it was more dumb luck that the two related roles went on day one. I don't think mauboy would've told each one who the other is if he didn't know if he could trust either of them, and as you mentioned we don't know what the restriction is. Plus if to find a wolf we're looking for Apolonia I don't really see what we have to go on.

One more thing, I don't see the point of the wolves killing Chief because they knew he was Kay. If the only ability Kay has is PMing Michael, then the role becomes fairly useless as soon as Michael is out of the game. They'd be better off going with someone at random in hopes of hitting a role that could be harmful to them, instead I think they went with Chief because of his typical strong play as a villager.

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I think it was more dumb luck that the two related roles went on day one. I don't think mauboy would've told each one who the other is if he didn't know if he could trust either of them, and as you mentioned we don't know what the restriction is. Plus if to find a wolf we're looking for Apolonia I don't really see what we have to go on.

This is what I was thinking. But I couldn't come up with a theory to explain it, chances of hidden role information or what the restrictions in their communication entailed?

[J23]

For those that don't know The Godfather very well, Michael kills Sollozzo and McCluskey and flees to Sicily where he meets Apollonia. She is killed and he returns home and marries Kay Adams a year or so later.

As far as how this plays out with the mechanics, I don't know, but I'm not sure it's worth worrying about too much. Thematically, I'd be surprised if Apollonia was a wolf, since she was just a local Sicilian girl, but I'm not sure if that really matters this game.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

So now with Danny's vote we have three of the no shows on day 1 on tyke. Hmmm

While that is interesting, and somewhat disconcerting, even I don't believe they would all obviously gang up on me. Once they lynch me, and I'm proven to be a good guy, they'd go down too easily. But I'd sure believe you'll find a furry creature or two amongst the group.

[CrimsonFox]

Jeff061 - Zinto (242 ), Jackal (316 ), mckerney (322 )
Crimson Fox - tyketime (289 ), bhlloy (317 ),
tyketime - Crimson Fox (290 ), Darth Vilus (295 ), Danny (315 )
saldana - Eagle Fan (294 ), Narcizo (300 )

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by J23

Jeff061 3 – Zinto(242), The Jackal(316), mckerney(322)
Crimson Fox 2 – tyketime (289), bhlloy(317)
Tyketime 3 – CrimsonFox (290), Darth Vilus (295), Danny(315)
Saldana 2 – Eaglefan (294), Narcizo (298)

Left: Autumn, JAG, Lathum, J23, Saldana, MartinD, Jeff061

you beat me to it. Hey! stop sticking your tongue out at me!

[Autumn]

Well out of the three top vote getters right now, Jeff and Tyketime haven't given me a bad feeling. Even with Tyke having got a lot of votes in the game already he's responding pretty moderately. Saldana I'm not quite sure about. But CrimsonFox kind of pinged me by getting really defensive after only one vote on him. So I'm going there.

VOTE CRIMSON FOX

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

For those that don't know The Godfather very well, Michael kills Sollozzo and McCluskey and flees to Sicily where he meets Apollonia. She is killed and he returns home and marries Kay Adams a year or so later.

In that case, I would guess that once one of the chicks die, Michael would have been able to PM with the other chick. Moot point now.

[jeff061]

Man, my connection is crappy here and I'm having trouble keeping up with the votes . Didn't realize I had 3 on me, so let me speed things up.

I'd like to vote for someone we haven't heard to much from, but I don't think that works now.

Tyketime is just all over the place. I'm not convinced on his guilt(not convinced on anyone's at this point), but he's certainly not helping. We are all debating irrelevant points and confusing things based on his posts so far.

Vote Tyketime

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Tyketime is just all over the place. I'm not convinced on his guilt(not convinced on anyone's at this point), but he's certainly not helping. We are all debating irrelevant points and confusing things based on his posts so far.

Can you give me examples? I had to read fast this morning and catch up, but I didn't get this impression.

[tyketime]

Originally Posted by jeff061

Tyketime is just all over the place. I'm not convinced on his guilt(not convinced on anyone's at this point), but he's certainly not helping. We are all debating irrelevant points and confusing things based on his posts so far.

Vote Tyketime

Yikes! If you want to call it a defensive vote, then at least say that. How could I be all over the board debating irrelevant posts? I've looked at two groups - the couple of later votes on me and the Non-Voters from Day 1. If that is intentionally misleading, or pulling us all down a path to nowhere, I just don't see it...

[JAG]

I'm going to hop on Autumn's train of thought for now. Today seems tough to me because I feel like there are a number of tempting ways to go.

Vote CrimsonFox

[jeff061]

Mostly from yesterday, I think he was pretty prolific. Takes me 30 seconds to load up each page, killing me asking for examples .

[jeff061]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Yikes! If you want to call it a defensive vote, then at least say that. How could I be all over the board debating irrelevant posts? I've looked at two groups - the couple of later votes on me and the Non-Voters from Day 1. If that is intentionally misleading, or pulling us all down a path to nowhere, I just don't see it...

Ha, yeah it was, actually meant to close with that . Not 100% though, those reasons are why I picked you over the others with 2 or 3 on them.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well out of the three top vote getters right now, Jeff and Tyketime haven't given me a bad feeling. Even with Tyke having got a lot of votes in the game already he's responding pretty moderately. Saldana I'm not quite sure about. But CrimsonFox kind of pinged me by getting really defensive after only one vote on him. So I'm going there.

VOTE CRIMSON FOX

This is really odd. And yes I always get defensive and angry at votes on me that don't make sense. This is odd from you Autumn. You've played with me before.

[Autumn]

Well, getting defensive and angry when there's one vote on your, if you're a villager, is not helpful for the village. I have to vote on something, and the best reason I know to bristle when you get a single vote is because you're a wolf.

Yes, I've played with you, and while generally you're an out in front player, I don't recall you having those types of reactions typically.

[CrimsonFox]

Not helpful to the village. Gee, I'm so sorry I'm getting defensive at crappy logic.

[Lathum]

I need to get a vote in just in case I get busy before deadline

Vote Crimsonfox

I think I was pretty vocal about voting one of the non voters yesterday and he is the only one in contention right now.

Truth be told I would rather go with DV, nothing more than a gut feeling on that one.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by tyketime

Gee... I guess I would like to know the answer to that as well. I was hoping to spur some conversation, and as I said, Crimson was the only one to post something we could at least use as a starting point. So I put an early vote on him. Then I get two quick votes on me. Crimson's seems very defensive. Darth implies I'm trying to shift the spotlight. I think the intention, as clearly stated, was to get the four of you to be more active.

Only starting point? That is not only untrue but just stupid. I'm defensive because the only reason you have given is an out of game reason (I slept late and forgot the vote was an early one), which does make me a little angry. And you don't want us to be more active. I've been more active since I missed the morning deadline and you have still only focused on me. So you want me to be MORE inactive then? As that seems to be the only thing that will please you.

You have also neglected a few things. Like examination of the mauboy voters. Or questioning the people who voted day 1 with zero explanation behind it. Or even others who haven't explained why they missed the vote yesterday. And if you lynch me, you don't learn anything day about day one except that I'm not a wolf and then make yourself look more guilty, which if you are a villager, which you might be, will cause people to vote for you and help the wolves even more. I suppose I just don't understand why you are only focusing on me just because I'm actually giving you an explanation and you have yet to give me a good reason why you're voting for me. Yes, you've "started" your discussion, but then haven't actually HAD a discussion.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Not helpful to the village. Gee, I'm so sorry I'm getting defensive at crappy logic.

It's unfortunate you missed your vote yesterday, but I've seen a number of games where missed votes or single votes on candidates end up making things difficult to evaluate later on, and a reasonably good percentage turn out to be wolves. I would be pretty surprised if all the missing D1 voters turn out to be villagers and I think it's more helpful to start working through the unknown with a reasonable chance to catch a wolf than leave things for later when we will have to guess at things.

[CrimsonFox]

I am pretty confident I have at least 2 wolves voting for me right now. This is actually the first time I've ever seen people "working through the unknowns" instead of voting off things you do know. People are only voting for me now because I"m being both angry and vocal about it. If I were a wolf, I wouldn't be saying a thing. Don't know which CrimsonFox you've been watching Autumn, I always get defensive when I'm getting voted for. Only as a wolf do I clam up.