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Old 02-11-2011, 11:36 AM   #301
Lathum
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dola- not sure what the seer should do. If they die the power was wasted and they take the info to the grave.
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Old 02-11-2011, 11:37 AM   #302
Lathum
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double dola- not sure why I touched a nerve with Sal, and I apologize to him if I did.

I've known him half my life, and when he says "whatever" to me he is really saying F@*k You.
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Old 02-11-2011, 11:46 AM   #303
mckerney
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I doubt the wolves would come out and claim a wolf is acyually a clean player. It would result in 2 wolves dying when that info comes out at some point.

I think if they did buy the seer, which I doubt, they just will sit on it and not use it.

One of my fears with with a wolf buying a seer is if they would announce who they scanned as clean. If we later find out the seer was a wolf we may end up wasting a day going after the person they cleared. Or a wolf seer giving us a member of the other group of wolves, it would be good to remove one but would probably make it easier for the wolf seer to survive lynching.

That's all on top of us just losing a chance to catch them.
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Old 02-11-2011, 11:49 AM   #304
Lathum
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I see what you are saying, I just think it unlikely the mob buys the seer this early wneh chances are the seer doesn't hit on a wolf. I think they wait until we have lost some villagers and the odds of a seer hitting a mobster are greater.
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Old 02-11-2011, 11:50 AM   #305
mckerney
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
dola- not sure what the seer should do. If they die the power was wasted and they take the info to the grave.

I'm conflicted on that too. On one hand, it would be good to know we could clear someone. On the other they have just told the wolves that they spent $778 and probably won't be as much of a threat to win an important bid while we haven't learned the identity of a wolf.
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Old 02-11-2011, 11:54 AM   #306
hoopsguy
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
I doubt the wolves would come out and claim a wolf is acyually a clean player. It would result in 2 wolves dying when that info comes out at some point.

I think if they did buy the seer, which I doubt, they just will sit on it and not use it.

I would guess they would use it to see if they could find the other wolves. Unless I missed it in my read of the rules earlier, I don't think they know who the other group is and I'm expecting they want to know how to target the other wolf group.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:00 PM   #307
Passacaglia
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I feel like there's so much doubt in the seer that it's almost worthless. Unless there's some service that allows us to know someone is good, wouldn't we not be able to trust whoever bought that power until he dies and his role is revealed?
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:01 PM   #308
saldana
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
double dola- not sure why I touched a nerve with Sal, and I apologize to him if I did.

I've known him half my life, and when he says "whatever" to me he is really saying F@*k You.
no....not at all....it really was whatever....i thought your reasoning flawed and i am not going to get wound up about it...if i wanted to say F@#k you to you, i would simply have said "hey lathum, F&#k you!"
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:11 PM   #309
ntndeacon
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I'm conflicted on that too. On one hand, it would be good to know we could clear someone. On the other they have just told the wolves that they spent $778 and probably won't be as much of a threat to win an important bid while we haven't learned the identity of a wolf.

however they (the wolves) do know how much was spent. And it is an easy assumption to guess that that particular service will contue to cost a good bit.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:12 PM   #310
Lathum
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just when you think you know someone
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:14 PM   #311
ntndeacon
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I am assuming the wolves would use the seer if they won it. aren't there 2 separate mafias. I am playing under the assumption that they do not know who are in the other group
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:17 PM   #312
JAG
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I feel like the seer discussion is distracting us from finding wolves, so I'll just reveal that I purchased it and Chief Rum is a Vegas Resident so we can move along.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:17 PM   #313
mckerney
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Originally Posted by ntndeacon View Post
however they (the wolves) do know how much was spent. And it is an easy assumption to guess that that particular service will contue to cost a good bit.

Unless I'm reading it wrong, this post tells us how much the winning bid for each service was. So if the wolves know who had the winning bid on the PI, they know that person spent $778 last night. It doesn't mean they know if they won the bet that day though.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:19 PM   #314
Lathum
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O,k, well there you have it.

Any reason not to lynch Jag? We can see if he is telling the truth, clear CR, and if he is a villager no great loss since he is now pretty much broke?
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:27 PM   #315
JAG
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It's fine by me if you really want the confirmation. As you pointed out I'm basically vanilla now. But it's also a waste because it doesn't get us closer to finding a wolf when I cone up villager. Also, if the wolves NK CR afterwards, what will you have gained? Let them do the work for the village.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:29 PM   #316
mckerney
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It's fine by me if you really want the confirmation. As you pointed out I'm basically vanilla now. But it's also a waste because it doesn't get us closer to finding a wolf when I cone up villager. Also, if the wolves NK CR afterwards, what will you have gained? Let them do the work for the village.

Yeah, the chance of having you and Chief Rum dead at the end of the next night concerns me a bit about this plan.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:31 PM   #317
Lathum
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Yeah, the chance of having you and Chief Rum dead at the end of the next night concerns me a bit about this plan.

BG protect CR
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:33 PM   #318
PackerFanatic
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Unless the mafia get the BG first. I think at least for the time being, we need to trust JAG.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:35 PM   #319
mauchow
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Interesting read so far. Hmmm.

What I'd like to know is which service is better.. the Hooker, err I mean escort Service or the showgirl.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:39 PM   #320
Passacaglia
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Maybe we can use JAG for a day or two more before we find out what he is? If everyone agrees not to bid on the seer, we can let JAG have it again and scan another player. If this continues for a few days, we'll get some good info from him. Of course, if he's a wolf, we can't trust any of it. And the wolves could also outbid JAG for the seer stuff. But there's a service that lets you find out who won the bids, right? Hey, if that's the case, can't we find out who won the bid on the night-kill service?
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:40 PM   #321
Passacaglia
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Oh never mind. I think there was just something that could tell you who everyone bet on. Ah, well.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:45 PM   #322
mckerney
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Originally Posted by Passacaglia View Post
Oh never mind. I think there was just something that could tell you who everyone bet on. Ah, well.

Could that be what Lefty does? The acquisitions description is rather vague.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:47 PM   #323
hoopsguy
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I'm glad JAG came out with the information for exactly the reasons he stated. In a day with revolving seers, we just need to modify the format of our trust lists a little bit.

Day 1: JAG clears Chief Rum

So the trust list isn't "CR = Trusted" but instead creates relationships between players. IE - if CR is bad that looks very bad for JAG.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:48 PM   #324
JAG
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One thing I think is interesting in the voting is the group on Darth Vilus (from my perspective knowing my and CR's alliegence). The last two votes on him, not counting Lathum who switched for self-defense, were known villagers. The first voter was a villager. ntn switched to Darth to bring him to 2 and hoops added a vote to make it 3. If I think the wolves would spread out, one of those two would be a good candidate. But again, that's only my perspective, the rest of you have to trust my intentions without 100% assurance.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:49 PM   #325
Passacaglia
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Could that be what Lefty does? The acquisitions description is rather vague.

I think it's vague because more description was given in Post 113. I think he lets you steal money from another player.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:51 PM   #326
Chief Rum
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Well, I like that. Thanks, JAG.

I can't vouch for JAG's allegiance, but he's certainly on point with mine.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:52 PM   #327
mauchow
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But remember lathums vote did not change anything.. he just made it a tie with j23 instead of Darth. It was a weird move by lathim I thought.. pointless and he somewhat explained himself but he switched the voting around with his vote imo.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:53 PM   #328
Lathum
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hmm

so there was only one kill last night, but there was a winning bid for the night kill. Does that mean the mob has to bid for kills?
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:58 PM   #329
hoopsguy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG View Post
One thing I think is interesting in the voting is the group on Darth Vilus (from my perspective knowing my and CR's alliegence). The last two votes on him, not counting Lathum who switched for self-defense, were known villagers. The first voter was a villager. ntn switched to Darth to bring him to 2 and hoops added a vote to make it 3. If I think the wolves would spread out, one of those two would be a good candidate. But again, that's only my perspective, the rest of you have to trust my intentions without 100% assurance.

The wolves almost certainly spread it out, but not in the way we usually think of it. With two groups, that should not be able to coordinate with each other, they had two separate agendas. So lets say we had one wolf among the 3 candidates - if one was a wolf then there would be a couple of wolves actively saving him and a couple of others just trying to spread their votes out in the usual manner.
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Old 02-11-2011, 12:59 PM   #330
hoopsguy
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
hmm

so there was only one kill last night, but there was a winning bid for the night kill. Does that mean the mob has to bid for kills?

I assumed this was the case, since we don't expect to see two night kills per night. Maybe they rotate between nights, but having to buy the kill seems like the more likely scenario in my eyes. Especially if they can pool money.
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Old 02-11-2011, 01:01 PM   #331
Lathum
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Originally Posted by mauboy1 View Post
But remember lathums vote did not change anything.. he just made it a tie with j23 instead of Darth. It was a weird move by lathim I thought.. pointless and he somewhat explained himself but he switched the voting around with his vote imo.

I gave a hurried explination of this last night from a traffic light so I'll try to give a better one.

My switch was far from pointless. At the time Darth had not yet voted and my vote was on him. If I leave it that way it is 100% DV is going to vote me, he has to.

By switching to J23 it gives DV the option of voting me or J23, so I decrease the odds of getting a lynch vote by 50%, hardly pointless.
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Old 02-11-2011, 01:04 PM   #332
Lathum
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
I assumed this was the case, since we don't expect to see two night kills per night. Maybe they rotate between nights, but having to buy the kill seems like the more likely scenario in my eyes. Especially if they can pool money.

Well then the question is did the pool money, or did the winning bidder have a vote on J23 and use that extra money. If so we should be looking at the J23 voters.
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Old 02-11-2011, 01:15 PM   #333
mauchow
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Right lathum.. and you had to get going too so u weren't able to see the results of the following votes. My apologies.
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Old 02-11-2011, 01:35 PM   #334
tyketime
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
So lets say we had one wolf among the 3 candidates - if one was a wolf then there would be a couple of wolves actively saving him and a couple of others just trying to spread their votes out in the usual manner.

Well, since we know there are two families, and assuming as was mentioned above that they can't communicate with each other - I don't think we'd see 3-4 wolves fitting that pattern, right? They wouldn't have the numbers.

But I did analyze the pattern in the voting recap. The last four unvotes and then votes switched target from DV/Lathum tie to a J23 runaway. Three of those votes (mauboy1, Lathum, PackerFanatic) all came within a seven post grouping. If a couple of them were working together, then they could insure Lathum and/or DV lived to see another day.

(230) mauboy1 unvotes mckerny, votes J23: Darth Vilus 6 Lathum 6 J23 5 Chief Rum 1
(234) Lathum unvotes Darth Vilus, votes J23: J23 6 Lathum 6 Darth Vilus 5 Chief Rum 1
(236) PackerFanatic unvotes Chief Rum, votes J23: J23 7 Lathum 6 Darth Vilus 5
(257) saldana unvotes Lathum, votes J23: J23 8 Lathum 5 Darth Vilus 5

So I'm wondering if one of those two is a wolf...
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Old 02-11-2011, 01:40 PM   #335
tyketime
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dola - I will be out for a couple of hours, back for a couple, and then unavailable until after the deadline.
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Old 02-11-2011, 01:49 PM   #336
Lathum
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Tyke- I think it is great you are doing analysis and thinking along those lines. One thing I will say is that it is pretty rare for wolves to coordinate like that to save someone close to the deadline because at some point the dots will be connected. It is better to just cut them lose.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:14 PM   #337
The Jackal
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Originally Posted by hoopsguy View Post
I'm glad JAG came out with the information for exactly the reasons he stated. In a day with revolving seers, we just need to modify the format of our trust lists a little bit.

Day 1: JAG clears Chief Rum

So the trust list isn't "CR = Trusted" but instead creates relationships between players. IE - if CR is bad that looks very bad for JAG.

This is exactly what we do with seer reveals. It's a case where unless someone comes out and says "this guy scanned as a wolf", we leave it alone until later in the game, when the info will be easier to digest. Not crystal clear, but easier. We should go after others at the moment, not JAG.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:18 PM   #338
saldana
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Originally Posted by Lathum View Post
Tyke- I think it is great you are doing analysis and thinking along those lines. One thing I will say is that it is pretty rare for wolves to coordinate like that to save someone close to the deadline because at some point the dots will be connected. It is better to just cut them lose.
under normal circumstances, i would agree with this, but if you put it into the context of two wolves waiting for Darth (the third wolf) to show up and be one of the two moving votes, it makes alot more sense...darth never showed, so they had to either watch him go down on day one, or both move their votes to save him and hope to just disguise it as day one nonsense.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:24 PM   #339
The Jackal
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Making me lean towards voting Darth because of what it might show us in the day one recount.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:39 PM   #340
Autumn
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Catching back up on PMs, etc.

I know these deadlines have been tough on people. Would it work better to have an earlier deadline, like 6 pm EST or something, and then have night last only to 9 or 10 pm? So everyone has three or four hours to get their night actions in and bets?
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:39 PM   #341
Lathum
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under normal circumstances, i would agree with this, but if you put it into the context of two wolves waiting for Darth (the third wolf) to show up and be one of the two moving votes, it makes alot more sense...darth never showed, so they had to either watch him go down on day one, or both move their votes to save him and hope to just disguise it as day one nonsense.

If I am in this position as a wolf I let him crash and burn
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:40 PM   #342
Lathum
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Catching back up on PMs, etc.

I know these deadlines have been tough on people. Would it work better to have an earlier deadline, like 6 pm EST or something, and then have night last only to 9 or 10 pm? So everyone has three or four hours to get their night actions in and bets?

I think this would be really hard for west coasters.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:44 PM   #343
Chief Rum
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I think this would be really hard for west coasters.

Yup.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:50 PM   #344
Autumn
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I think this would be really hard for west coasters.

Well, that's one idea out there. Basically i'm asking for those who have trouble wtih the deadlines to tell me what might work better. I'd normally do the night deadline shortly after the day deadline, but I want people time to decide what to bet, and how to use their services. I'm wide open to ideas for how to structure that for you guys.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:52 PM   #345
Autumn
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Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Below are the services you can bid on for Day 2:

Tank Wallace, Professional Bodyguard - hire Tank for protection
Mario Juarez, Private Investigator - Mario will get the dirt on anyone you want
Cassie's Escort Agency - there's lots of things to do in Vegas at night
Knuckles Cassini - word is that if you want someone taken care of, Knuckles will do your dirty work
Destiny, Vegas Showgirl - everyone in town spends some time with Destiny in their lap, for a price
Speedeez Courier Service - you need to send a message, Speedeez will get it there
Kalustian Betting Parlor - This bookie's got his fingers in every bet in town
24 Hour Check Cashing - When you need to move money in a hurry
Lefty Fingers, Acquisitions - Lefty has his fingers in every pocket in town
Graceland Wedding Chapel - Vegas is the perfect place to fall in love, quickly

Repeating this on the current page.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:52 PM   #346
The Jackal
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I think the night and morning deadlines are good, maybe you can push the morning back to 10 AM EST for west coasters? Not really sure, as I said it works fine for me. I definitely like having the whole night to get orders in since it allows for evening activities.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:53 PM   #347
Autumn
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Vote count as of post #345

Mckerney (1) - mauboy1 290
Darth Vilus (1) - Packerfanatic 299
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:54 PM   #348
Chief Rum
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I got my PM from the service I won, and I don't see a point in keeping the info secret. I bid for and won the services of the betting parlor. I had a couple ways to go with it, and I chose to receive a list of everyone's bets for the lynch from yesterday (so what they submitted in the Night 0 phase).

I actually think this is the only phase that info might be useful, because we didn't know about the betting parlor at that point. The wolves may have been less inhibited in making their choices for betting during that phase than they would be now, since they now know their choices might bee revealed and used as a way to link one another.

Hopefully this formats okay. The Bettor is on the right, who he bet for the Day One lynch is on the left. Here goes:

Code:
Packer Fanatic: Chief Rum JAG: Darth Vilus DaddyTorgo: Lathum Saldana: The Jackal Danny: Daddy Torgo The Jackal: J23 Zinto: Lathum Crimson Fox: Lathum Darth Vilus: CrimsonFox Chief Rum: ntndeacon Mauboy1: ntndeacon Passacaglia: Lathum Lathum: ntndeacon J23: (No Bet) Tyketime : Lathum Mckerney : Lathum Hoopsguy: Passacaglia cougarfreak: (No Bet) Ntndeacon: (No Bet)

This also means I have no money, so I guess the wolves can kill me now if they want--they won't be depriving us of any funds.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:55 PM   #349
Lathum
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For me I'll just have to remember to place my bet and use any winning services before I go to bed.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:56 PM   #350
The Jackal
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Thanks for painting a huge target on my back, Chief!
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