NFL 2022 Offseason, Draft, Free Agency

[albionmoonlight]

This is what I come back to when I think of teams talking themselves into drafting a QB in the first round because they need one: 2011 NFL Draft - Wikipedia

Locker, Gabbert, Ponder.

As someone whose team might very well overdraft one of the QBs this year, I am somewhat petrified.

[JPhillips]

I was more suggesting that the AFC teams that are a QB away need to do whatever it takes to trade for Rogers, Wilson, Murray, maybe even Cousins. I don't think there's a way to compete in the AFC for the next decade without a top QB, so the choice is either to do what it takes to compete now, start dismantling so draft position is favorable for a QB over the next couple of years, or be content with a ceiling of reaching the playoffs and losing to one of the franchise QBs.

Now in the NFC, everybody has a chance. There's a possibility that the top three QBs next year are Dak, Cousins, and Stafford. If that's the case, why not the Vikings in the Super Bowl?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This is what I come back to when I think of teams talking themselves into drafting a QB in the first round because they need one: 2011 NFL Draft - Wikipedia

Locker, Gabbert, Ponder.

As someone whose team might very well overdraft one of the QBs this year, I am somewhat petrified.

Yes, this feels exactly like that kind of year. And the advent of analytics has made this feel ever more present, as each team now has a couple of quants from Yale sitting in the corner muttering "there's no empirical justification to take the pro-bowl tackle or edge rusher or cornerback, just roll the dice on your top-rated quarterback" or whatever. Setting aside Cam Newton, and my own still-satisfying mention of Jimmy Claussen as "pocket lint," this is very much the draft scenario I fear a bit for the teams who get carried away. Just look at all the Pro Bowl coloration for the top half of that draft, basically every player except the reached-for quarterbacks.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

This is what I come back to when I think of teams talking themselves into drafting a QB in the first round because they need one: 2011 NFL Draft - Wikipedia

Locker, Gabbert, Ponder.

As someone whose team might very well overdraft one of the QBs this year, I am somewhat petrified.

As an FSU fan, you can add EJ Manuel to this list (mid-1st round by the Bills). I think Ponder could have been a Kirk Cousins type guy if taken in a round where he wasn't forced to show he was THE GUY from day 1 with the pressure of being that highly drafted.

As a Broncos fan, I'd also add Paxton Lynch, although admittedly he was near the end of the 1st round as I recall. But, as I also recall, the Broncos traded up to get him.

[Solecismic]

The more I study the numbers, the less I feel I know. There's a gold mine in the NextGen stats, however, and every team has access to a lot more than the public has. That's where the analytics is these days.

The problem is that, like most complex worlds with millions of variables, using their insights for the general good is easier said than done.

Football is a chess match on a board that naturally tilts towards the end zone and pieces are largely interchangable. What players can do, what they're told to do and what they decide to do are three separate, but inter-related variables.

And it's up to the quarterback to sort that all out and make good decisions. So you have to decide whether you want the best decision-maker, or someone who can buy some more time before making a decision, or someone who can do more things with his arm - and obviously some combination of all three.

How do you scout that? At the college level, which plays a lot slower, a guy like Johnny Manziel can do all three things very well. At the next level, not so much. Or you get a guy like Tom Brady, who has decent arm strength, decent accuracy, can't buy you much time but has decent pocket awareness, but almost never makes a bad decision. That last skill is difficult to assess unless you're in his college coach's head.

You move your team 250 yards in 60 plays, and you've probably failed miserably. But 350 yards in 60 plays, you're doing well. How does that work and where does the quarterback figure in all of that?

The secret of success might be in discovering that there are some quarterbacks who would thrive with your coach but have never been given the keys to the car. As Brady said recently, if not for the tuck rule, it's entirely possible he might never have done much of anything in the NFL.

[sabotai]

Looks like the Giants are hiring Wink Martindale as their DC.

[molson]

I can't believe there's two semi-famous people named "Wink Martindale".

[Ksyrup]

I just assumed the DC got his nickname because his last name is Martindale and Wink was a famous game show host. You know, most of these things are not all that original.

[Carman Bulldog]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I just assumed the DC got his nickname because his last name is Martindale and Wink was a famous game show host. You know, most of these things are not all that original.

And Wikipedia confirms.

[sterlingice]

Hey, remember way back like a week ago when multiple coaches were talking about how they were paid money to lose games? And that's all just disappeared now?

SI

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Hey, remember way back like a week ago when multiple coaches were talking about how they were paid money to lose games? And that's all just disappeared now?

SI

I would argue that paid and offered is a pretty key difference.

[bhlloy]

Another OC hired as an HC who has never called plays or come up with his own scheme in his life, but remember Bienemy can’t be given any credit for that Chiefs offense y’all.

At some point we might as well face the fact that NFL owners like hiring well groomed young white dudes who they would just love to be their son in laws.

[GrantDawg]

Crazy Stat I just saw. Alabama has only had one number one pick in the NFL draft, and it was in 1948. Joe Namath was picked also a number one pick, but that was for the AFL Jets before the merger. As many first round picks they have had iver the decades, that seems hard to believe.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Thomkal]

Yeah would have expected a lot more than that

[albionmoonlight]

Saints end up hiring their DC as Head Coach and then keeping their OC as OC.

They did legit searches on both, so I don't think it was a foregone conclusion. But after a full search, they decided to stay with what they were comfortable with.

They are going to try to run Payton's team without Payton and without a QB.

I am . . . skeptical.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Saints end up hiring their DC as Head Coach and then keeping their OC as OC.

They did legit searches on both, so I don't think it was a foregone conclusion. But after a full search, they decided to stay with what they were comfortable with.

They are going to try to run Payton's team without Payton and without a QB.

I am . . . skeptical.

i see mocks of them taking Matt Corral, not sold on that at all as the answer next year. Best bet is probably to try and resign Winston and look to get a franchise QB next year, when it is a stronger class.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

i see mocks of them taking Matt Corral, not sold on that at all as the answer next year. Best bet is probably to try and resign Winston and look to get a franchise QB next year, when it is a stronger class.

If there was ever a year for a team to tank, this would be the one for New Orleans.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Hey, remember way back like a week ago when multiple coaches were talking about how they were paid money to lose games? And that's all just disappeared now?

That's why you cut a media deal with every major outlet.

[QuikSand]

BREAKING: Can now confidently confirm the earlier report by @Banned__Drew. #Ravens WR Marquise Brown is expected to step away from football and further pursue a streaming and content-creating career. My source cites future health and higher earnings potential as main factors#NFL

— CJ Golson (@CJGolson) February 16, 2022

Cannot vouch for the authenticity, but I do love this reaction:

Scott Barrett on Twitter: "Marquise Brown is related to Antonio Brown: CONFIRMED… "

[flere-imsaho]

Not surprised. If one can achieve enough reknown to meaningfully monetize one's social media, and then is willing to keep a hustle going to grow that audience (and I suspect most athletes who make it to pro level have enough built-in hustle), it wouldn't be too hard to eclipse the average NFL annual salary (~800K) and certainly it could be kept going for longer than the average NFL career (3.3 years). Without all the negative health consequences (depending on your choice of social media activity, of course).

[thesloppy]

Personally, I'd probably prefer the constant physical pounding of pro-football to the constant mental/emotional pummeling of pro social media.

[NobodyHere]

I can't wait for the video of Marquise Brown restoring a pair of old scissors.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I can't wait for the video of Marquise Brown restoring a pair of old scissors.

This is an underrated comment

SI

[miami_fan]

Steelers hire Brian Flores as senior defensive assistant/linebackers coach - ProFootballTalk

[NobodyHere]

NFL to Partner With XFL on Football Research, Data Sharing

I'm actually impressed that the XFL got the NFL to acknowledge that it exists.

ETA:

The USFL draft is tomorrow. Anyone interested? I'll probably have it streaming in the background.

[Brian Swartz]

The Washington Post did a poll and found fans of the ... whatever you call them ... would prefer the team remain as WFT compared to the options of the Commander name or reverting to the Redskins name.

That's ... pretty bad.

[NobodyHere]

And the first pick of the of USFL draft is .......... Shae Patterson!

[QuikSand]

From Kyler Murray's agent:

Frankly, Rogers is worth well more than $50m per…
ANNOUNCERS are now making $20m+! To drive to the game, out of harms way, & just talk about QBs/ players!
Packers are a top seed contender with Rogers. What are they without him?? 5-6 wins & essentially irrelevant? Pay the man!�� https://t.co/7e8Cxazb6A

— Erik Burkhardt (@ErikBurkhardt) February 27, 2022

...and he is absolutely correct, sadly.

[sabotai]

Aaron Rodgers is due to have a cap hit of $46.6m this season, which is 22.2% of the cap.

Tom Brady's highest cap hit (as a percentage of the cap): 13.6% (2006)
Drew Brees: 16.4% (2015)
Matt Ryan: 15.0% (2016) - Due 23.4% of the cap next season
Ben Roethlisberger: 15.3% (2016)
Aaron Rodgers: 14.9% (2019, 2021) - Due 22.2% next season
Payton Manning: 20.5% (2003)
Matthew Stafford: 15.8% (2019)
Philip Rivers: 14.9% (2015)

IMO, committing 23%+ of your cap every single year for a QB, no matter how important they are, is way too much. Teams have a hard enough time filling a roster with talent giving 15-20% to a QB.

EDIT: The Packers are already projected to be $30m over the cap for next season as it is.

[albionmoonlight]

The Rams went with a model of valuing veteran players at premium positions over first round picks. And they won the Super Bowl.

It will be interesting to see if any teams/owners decide to copy that model.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Aaron Rodgers is due to have a cap hit of $46.6m this season, which is 22.2% of the cap.

Tom Brady's highest cap hit (as a percentage of the cap): 13.6% (2006)
Drew Brees: 16.4% (2015)
Matt Ryan: 15.0% (2016) - Due 23.4% of the cap next season
Ben Roethlisberger: 15.3% (2016)
Aaron Rodgers: 14.9% (2019, 2021) - Due 22.2% next season
Payton Manning: 20.5% (2003)
Matthew Stafford: 15.8% (2019)
Philip Rivers: 14.9% (2015)

IMO, committing 23%+ of your cap every single year for a QB, no matter how important they are, is way too much. Teams have a hard enough time filling a roster with talent giving 15-20% to a QB.

EDIT: The Packers are already projected to be $30m over the cap for next season as it is.

Matt Ryan's cap hit will be higher at $48.6 mil. On a team full of holes.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by sabotai

IMO, committing 23%+ of your cap every single year for a QB, no matter how important they are, is way too much.

Sure, in a generic situation, this holds up. But I feel we could (with a little research) put together the "what could the Packers afford with the $35m difference between Rodgers' request and the $15m they'd have to pay for a credible starter?" and it would not be a slam dunk.

Like, if that bundle was framed as: you either have slightly-below-replacement players at their positions to afford the 2x defending league MVP QB, or you get to have (off the top of my head) LB Campbell, CB Douglass, WR Valdez Scantling, and C Lindsley.

If that's the actual math... is it an absolute no brainer that the QB is too expensive, because he costs you that tier of your roster? And yes, this is where the Rams' current blueprint comes into play, not a precise parallel, but the same logic scaled to fit Donald, Ramsey, and now Stafford.

[albionmoonlight]

The Saints at the end of Brees' career are a good parallel. You can push cap problems into the future. The Saints had an aging HOF QB. They did the right thing by paying him and keeping a core around him by pushing the cap hits into the future with extensions and bonuses.

The Packers should totally do the same.

It didn't "work "for the Saints in that they did not win a Super Bowl. But it did "work" in that they were a top seed during the end of Brees' window. A few random bounces here and there, and they could have won a Super Bowl. And, yeah, I expect the next few years for the Saints to be painful. But it was still worth taking that chance.

In a diluted NFC, the Packers would be stupid (IMO) to not go YOLO and (1) pay Rogers, (2) keep the core around him, and (3) plan a bottom-out reset where they eat an NFL-record in dead money in, like, 2025 or something.

[QuikSand]

I think if I were calling the shots for GB, I'd be on that plan for exactly that logic.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Agreed on all of this.

Aaron Rodgers remains the biggest story for any fan of Detroit, Chicago or Minnesota. If he stays, Green Bay wins the division and you don't need to worry about much else, other than maybe trying to compete for a Wild Card spot at best. If Rodgers leaves, the division is pretty wide open and any could possibly take it... Even the Lions.

[JPhillips]

In the NFC I don't see how you don't take a shot if you have a QB. And from Rodgers' perspective, where would he have a better shot of both team and personal accolades than in Green Bay? He should want nothing to do with moving to the AFC and having to compete with all of that under-30 QB talent.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

In a diluted NFC, the Packers would be stupid (IMO) to not go YOLO and (1) pay Rogers, (2) keep the core around him, and (3) plan a bottom-out reset where they eat an NFL-record in dead money in, like, 2025 or something.

I'm not saying the Packers shouldn't do this. I am saying that the numbers coming out at "more than $50m per year" is unrealistic.

And as far as Brees goes, his dead money hit in 2021 was $11.15m and his dead money hot in 2022 will be $11.5m. Those aren't crazy high numbers (roughly 5-6% of the cap). I don't think they YOLO'ed all that much.

[albionmoonlight]

I want to like Dan Campbell. But what the fuck, man.

Top QB prospect Desmond Ridder said #Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell
“made me drink a glass of milk" during their meeting earlier this week.

Ridder, who is lactose intolerant, said Campbell wanted to test his toughness and ability to recall plays while in pain. pic.twitter.com/WwCCrNjFzp

— The Tone Setters (@thetonesetters) March 3, 2022

edit--apparently this is parody. Which is good. Because, as noted, I want to like Dan Campbell.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I want to like Dan Campbell. But what the fuck, man.

He should've told Dan Campbell to shove it.

What's the worst that could happen? You don't get drafted by the Lions?

[rjolley]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

He should've told Dan Campbell to shove it.

What's the worst that could happen? You don't get drafted by the Lions?

Wouldn't the worst thing that could happen be that he would get drafted by the Lions?

[Honolulu_Blue]

What the fuck, Dan Campbell? I want to like him, too, but that’s some idiotic nonsense.

[lungs]

I'm starting to get Mike Singeltary vibes with Dan Campbell. A hard nosed, quotable coach that the media loves. But when you don't start winning, you start dropping your pants around your ankles at halftime to make a point.

[thesloppy]

"You throw the ball real good kid, unfortunately you failed both the dairy and cannibalism portions of our combine."

[stevew]

The next step is to ask someone if their mom is a prostitute

[cuervo72]

Woe to the recruit with a peanut allergy.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by stevew

The next step is to ask someone if their mom is a prostitute

The 2022 version of this question would be to ask if their mom has an Onlyfans account.

[Solecismic]

If your franchise has but one playoff win in the last 64 seasons, I guess you're open to new ideas. But they might want to ditch the silver uniform pants they've used for decades.

ETA, trying to read about this, I think it was a joke that's kind of gone viral on Twitter. Not a bad one. The best ones are just about on the edge of believable.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

If your franchise has but one playoff win in the last 64 seasons, I guess you're open to new ideas. But they might want to ditch the silver uniform pants they've used for decades.

ETA, trying to read about this, I think it was a joke that's kind of gone viral on Twitter. Not a bad one. The best ones are just about on the edge of believable.

Playing without pants would be suitable for this franchise.

[Ksyrup]

"Jump out this window, I want to see if you can land on your feet."

[miami_fan]

I guess the NFL gets some credit for this?

Judge approves fix to stem racial bias in NFL's $1B concussion deal