05-08-2007, 10:53 AM | #301 |
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Well didnt get to lynch who I wanted to yesterday because of the tiebreaker.. so I'll try to work around that today.
Vote DaddyTorgo Of course maybe I'll change my mind later and make this redundant anyways. |
05-08-2007, 11:17 AM | #302 |
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so i'm who you wanted to lynch yesterday alan??
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05-08-2007, 11:18 AM | #303 |
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VOTE HOOPSGUY
As promised.
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05-08-2007, 11:20 AM | #304 |
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Alan's play this game has been very unusual. Normally I steer clear of voting for him because I think he adds a lot even when he's wrong, but this game he's just been...weird.
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05-08-2007, 11:21 AM | #305 |
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Alan, why DaddyT to start the voting today? You had mentioned me as your primary target yesterday post-vote ...
From where I sit, you have changed your targets each day. Day 1: KWhit Day 2: Me and Cronin Day 3: coming out voting DaddyT I'm doing a lousy job of voting for wolves as well, so I'm not trying to call you out for voting poorly. But I am trying to figure out why the changes in direction? If you are the seer and have viewed me and KWhit each of the last two nights - which is one explanation that would make sense to me, and is a big part of the reason I shied away from KWhit yesterday - then coming out and saying so would be a big help. Then we would have a group of three people cleared today and two people cleared tomorrow (assuming they went after you tonight). Benefits: - Three people cleared, two wolves among seven remaining players today - Two cleared, 1-2 wolves among five players tomorrow If I'm reading the tea leaves correctly then I strongly feel that this is the time to come out. If you aren't the seer, shoot this down and I put KWhit back on the table of people to evaluate today. Or if you are the seer and don't have two live people to clear, then lie and tell me that you aren't the seer and call me a wolf for trying to "out" the seer. But at this stage of the game if the seer can build us a 3-man CoT with 7 remaining we can start taking control of the game again. |
05-08-2007, 11:23 AM | #306 |
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Tell you what, why don't you build the case against me instead of "I promised to vote for you". We've got more material to review at this point than we did yesterday, so you should be able to come up with something that sounds decent by now, right? |
05-08-2007, 11:23 AM | #307 |
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Nah, the person I wanted to lynch yesterday was Hoops. I couldn't lynch him because of the tiebreaker rule (oldest vote cronin had on kwhit) preventing me any way of getting Hoops lynched without you and Kwhit switching. I sat here thinking through various scenerios while we waited for Lathum to post the results. I told myself: If Path died - Stick with Hoops vote If anyone else died - go with you. I think I've talked myself into believing that kwhit was good. No one at all came to save him yesterday until I did at the end. If he was a wolf, I have a hard time believing that someone wouldn't have found some reason or way to save him when it was in a 3 way tie at the end there. That was one of my reasons for putting it into a 3 way tie, it gave many different ways out if Kwhit was a wolf.. No one took any of them.. I don't think he is a wolf. I don't know how I feel about Hoops, I still think he's been playing different than I would expect. I don't know why that is, and sitll feel he could be a wolf. The thing though is, if he is a wolf, people know how stubborn I get, when I make up my mind on something I stick through it right or wrong, it is my fatal flaw. I assume most people trust that I am good right now, and the wolves know that... so why am I not dead yet? maybe they dont assume I am the seer, so trying to find who that is elsewhere.. or maybe they just are leaving me alive to continue my crusade against hoops. Path seemed pretty strong minded as well to go after hoops again today too, so if I didnt die, why not target path last night either? Two really strong minded votes for hoops still around tell me Hoops has a good shot at dying today. Maybe that is what the wolves want... If it comes down to a hoops vs someone else vote, I dont think i would mind switching to him instead of others, but I figured I would see how voting for DT today played out. DT came up with a whole bunch of comments that he didn't stick by later on. DT had the chance to change the vote however he wanted yesterday, but he stuck with it seemingly not wanting to stir the water.. Maybe I should learn something from Cronin in WW afterall, and his comment about a wolf being afraid to stir the water might apply here. |
05-08-2007, 11:26 AM | #308 | |
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I'm not the seer, and Im not just saying that to fall into your code slang above. I still think you might be bad, but I wanted to see how pushing DT would go today. Like my post above stated, I did change a bit how I felt about Kwhit and gave my reasons why. I feel better about you being a wolf still because you did have protection. I know you purposely had your vote back on Cronin to give yourself buffer room in case of late switches. You never had any real heat as you could protect your self at any time, and only short of Both Kwhit and DaddyTorgo switching votes did you have any chance of falling in for the lynch. You seemed really comfortable with that cushion yesterday so I feel completely different about Kwhit than you. No one came to save kwhit yesterday and anyone could have in many ways that wouldn't have looked suspicious at all. I dont know if you are a wolf, I dont know if DaddyTorgo is a wolf, but I want to see how this plays out a bit today. |
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05-08-2007, 11:31 AM | #309 |
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i didn't stir the waters because as i told kwit i didn't feel strongly either way between him and hoops. i didn't have any insight. and something about him struck me as off earlier in the game, hence my earlier votes for him. so i wasn't about to go back on those.
i've stuck by my comments. and i still stick by all of them. some of them i've just tried to clarify because i havn't explained them perhaps as clearly as i could. lord knows as a wolf i'm not afraid to stir the waters, when i'm a wolf. i tend to be more passive as a villager actually, as i think a lot of people would bear out. if anything, your still being alive and your bouncing from target to target raises more questions about you then my sticking with my vote on kwit (even if he is good, which i'm not the seer so i have no knowledge of). i admit i was very confused around 10:30 last night too, with what the purpose of all the switching was. had someone said "DT...switch here and it will accomplish this" i would have considered it, but my head was spinning as it was. |
05-08-2007, 11:35 AM | #310 | |
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I don't buy the last part at all. I made it pretty clear what the scenerio was. 3 way tie with hoops, Cronin and kwhit all tied. I made it clear that Hoops was my #1 choice and Cronin #2 choice. kwhit asked me to switch to cronin to save him (and hoops) and I said no I would prefer him and you switch to hoops instead. Kwhit asked you about it some and time ticked away and you suddenly went quiet. I even said I tossed it back in your court to do something with. You hid basically. Finally at 10:30 since nothing else happened, I switch to my second choice since you refused to help me lynch my first choice. |
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05-08-2007, 11:38 AM | #311 | ||||
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One small correction on my last post. I said last night I tossed it back in Kwhit's court not DT's. Either way, it was pretty obvious what the scenerio was DT. If your head was spinning from this? then well I don't know what to tell you. It appeared more to me that you were happy with how the vote was locked up and you didnt have any desire to move it.
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05-08-2007, 11:38 AM | #312 |
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My thoughts on the seer remain the same, whether it is Alan or someone else. I think our strongest opportunity to win the game is if the seer can reveal themselves and two people today. So for whoever that person is, please consider this line of thought.
I'm pretty close to certain that Path isn't the seer. If we disagreed on a point enough for him to vote for me, and I then suggested that the seer scan himself, I would expect him to target me last night. That clearly hasn't happened as he came out firing on me again today. So right now I'm thinking that he represents our best bet for today - I'm as certain as I can be (which is less than 100%) that I would not be lynching the seer. Alan, it is interesting that you didn't think I was under pressure yesterday. From where I sat, it felt like I was. But I tried to put it aside and act consistently in the best interests of the group, based on the info I had at the time. VOTE PATH12 |
05-08-2007, 11:40 AM | #313 |
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Okay, here we go.
I'm the Seer. I'm clear, obviously. Night 1 I scanned Hooopsguy, he's clear. Night 2 I scanned Kwhit, he's clear. So the two wolves are hiding in the list of Path12 DaddyTorgo Alan T ntndeacon Obviously I'll die tonight, but I think our odds are decent. Path12 was the only one of the four of them to vote for one of the winning candidates in Day 1. |
05-08-2007, 11:41 AM | #314 | |
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When I say you wern't under pressure yesterday, what I refer to is that I don't believe at any time were you in immediate danger of being lynched. The closest you ever got was tied up with you still having the ability to move your vote to protect yourself. Kwhit always either was tied with you or led you in votes AND had the lynch tiebreaker working against him. I didn't see at any point a place where anyone stood up and took a stand to protect you. The closest to that was when DT wanted to vote Cronin over you which didn't necessarily save you, but it did protect you. |
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05-08-2007, 11:43 AM | #315 | |
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So in other words what you are telling me is that the past two days I've done a pretty horrible job of picking my targets. If I am continuing to form that probably means DT isnt the wolf either and its Path + ntndeacon as the last two wolves. |
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05-08-2007, 11:43 AM | #316 |
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I should add that I have some amount of (maybe misguided) trust in Alan T. With the villegar PM thing, and his lack of a last-minute vote switch to save himself yesterday, he seems innocent to me.
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05-08-2007, 11:48 AM | #317 |
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Oh yes, also now that I've revealed, I can reveal my small bit of cleverness. I'm sure it didn't tip anyone off, but in case of having to fight off a false reveal, I included the word see somewhere in almost all of my posts in the game. Just in case.
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05-08-2007, 11:52 AM | #318 | |
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I really don't want to use the whole villegar thing as some crutch to lean on for my proof. I feel dirty about that whole thing. It was an honest mistake and I meant it more as a joke for Lathum than anything else. Please don't judge my innocence or guilt based on that. Like Lathum posted, even Molly's PM had it mispelled in it. Also I wasn't on the line for the vote yesterday and did switch my vote last minute, so not sure what your latter part of your post meant about me... I have obviously not been right about my arguements or discussion, but I have at least been consistant for my reasons for them thus far. I'm not sure if I want to move my vote from DT elsewhere or not just yet, but think I'll keep it on him for at least a while since it can win tiebreakers if the need comes up. |
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05-08-2007, 11:58 AM | #319 |
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Hmm, so you did Alan T. Well, much less trust now then.
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05-08-2007, 12:01 PM | #320 |
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i was happy with the way the vote was locked up because i didn't have a preference between the two of them (hoops+kwhit).
that being said VOTE ALAN T he's been playing this game strange-strange-strange from where i sit, and now it appears he's on the short list if we are to believe peregrine. i feel better about lynching him (strange strange) than i do me (villager) obviously. |
05-08-2007, 12:03 PM | #321 | |
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Sure, I've given detailed reasons for all of my actions, while you have given reasons that your head was spinning, or you don't know or such for many of yours. But I'm the one playing strange |
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05-08-2007, 12:05 PM | #322 |
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Peregrine, I had you as the second-most likely person to be the seer because you avoided discussions on me yesterday. So I let myself hope that you had scanned me on Night 1. I put out a post noting that "I'm glad Peregrine went to bed so he can't switch up to vote for me" and hoped that wouldn't set the wolves in your direction.
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05-08-2007, 12:09 PM | #323 |
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I feel pretty good about where my vote sits now if no one disputes Peregrine's reveal. Path would be more than willing to orchestrate in the manner that events went down over the last 24 hours. He had a vote on one of the two leading vote getters on Day 1.
I think I would have Alan lower on the list than NTN and DT. Not sure what order I have those two ranked - depends on how much sneakiness I'm giving DT credit for with his actions. I guess I would lean towards NTN, but could be convinced to go another direction. If it is DT then that would imply the vote/unvote game that Path and DT played yesterday in the early part of the day was staged. |
05-08-2007, 12:14 PM | #324 |
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Personally I'm on board with Path also, at this point anyway.
vote path12 |
05-08-2007, 12:28 PM | #325 |
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05-08-2007, 12:28 PM | #326 |
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I was feeling pretty suspicious of DT last night. Thinking he was prodding me and Alan into commiting to a voting decision before he would put down his own vote. He seemed very non-committal in general on everything. It's like he wanted to see which way we were going to go before making a stand.
However, I don't think that's really wolfinsh behaviour in this particular instance because everyone who was on the block are villagers (all 3 of us). So he easily could have just dropped a vote, had a little discussion and not drawn attention to himself like he did. I don't trust DT by any means, but I feel less suspicious of him than I did. So instead: Vote Path12 |
05-08-2007, 12:38 PM | #327 | ||
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This raised red flags when I first read it. These posts were back to back about 2 minutes apart. When I'm a villager, I love to be scanned. |
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05-08-2007, 12:43 PM | #328 | |
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*cries* why won't people trust me? don't mind me...i'm an emotional mess right now anyways. |
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05-08-2007, 01:01 PM | #329 | |
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BASTARDS!!! |
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05-08-2007, 01:02 PM | #330 |
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*shrug*
It'd be a ballsy play if Peregrine was a wolf, but that would be a move for tomorrow, not today. So I'll trust him for now. I've got no defense to make. I am as vanilla as they come and thought I saw a tell from hoops so came out firing, but after an uncontested (so far) seer reveal I could obviously be wrong. I'll go back to my original thinking: UNVOTE HOOPS VOTE DADDYTORGO Lynch me today and a night kill of Peregrine and it's 3-2 tomorrow morning. Better be sure about me.
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05-08-2007, 01:37 PM | #331 |
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What was the tell you thought you saw? I don't believe I have any
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05-08-2007, 01:52 PM | #332 | |
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I'll keep it on file for now, it obviously needs some adjustment.
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05-08-2007, 02:08 PM | #333 |
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Can't fault a man for asking.
Path, rank the other candidates who haven't been cleared and give your reasons why. I'm willing to listen to reasons we should head towards DT (your current vote) or other candidates. If you do end up a wronged villager here I would like to understand what your thought process was over the first three days in light of today's reveal. |
05-08-2007, 02:38 PM | #334 |
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OK, I'll be out for a bit but will when I get back.
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05-08-2007, 02:56 PM | #335 |
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Right now the vote is:
(2) Daddytorgo - Alan (301), Path (330) (3) Path12 - Hoopsguy (312), Peregrine (324), Kwhit (326) (1) Alan - DaddyTorgo (320) Trying to work out scenerios in my head. DT will be able to place his vote on path to save himself, so right now the vote is basically 4-2 with only ntn left to vote a meaningless vote as things stand. I wonder if one of Kwhit, Hoops or peregrine move their vote to DT, if it will help us learn more for tommorrow. Then it would be 3 DT, 2 Path but DT being able to move his vote to Path makes it 3-3 with Ntn then having to be the deciding vote. Scenerios: 1) NTN + DT are wolves, NTN then would have to decide between killing Path as an innocent villager and helping us know who the last wolves are, or killing his team mate. a) if Path dies as an innocent villager, it makes it 4-2, with night kill 3-2 but us knowing the last two wolves and having the numbers the rest of the way. b) if DT dies as a wolf, it makes it 5-1 with night kill 4-1 but us then having to decide between Path and Ntn for the last wolf. Worst case would be 3-1 with wrong choice, then 2-1 after night kill and us still having numbers to finish it. 2) Path + Ntn are wolves together - Scenerios line up the same was as #1 just swap Path and DT in the speculations. 3) Path + DT are both wolves together a) Either one of them die as a wolf, it gives us the same scenerio as 1B above. I guess thinking things through, it doesnt really tell us much no matter what Ntn decides to do today or if we force his hand, we still end up with a question mark tommorrow. So guess moving the votes around right now isnt a huge deal after all. |
05-08-2007, 03:13 PM | #336 |
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Alan, I'm not counting any vote from NTN as meaningless until he reports in and confirms he is not the seer. If he does challenge Peregrine then we have a much more different excercise for the remainder of our day.
I'm also willing to listen to Path. I've outlined my reasons for voting for him, but there was a risk mitigation component that he was not the seer that clinched voting for him versus another player (don't think I have named this person yet). |
05-08-2007, 03:43 PM | #337 |
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right now I would think any vote from the 4 of us has to be looked on as misleading and meaningless.
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05-08-2007, 03:45 PM | #338 |
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and I cannot refute what Perigrine has said. I am not the seer. I am bolstered in his truthfulness by his choice of seen. It fits with whom I would have viewed.
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05-08-2007, 03:56 PM | #339 |
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Very good. No seer challenges makes today a lot easier. Peregrine, thanks for coming forward with that information. It is basically a death warrant for this evening, so hopefully we make good use of info you provided with our choice today.
I don't think a vote from the four players has to be looked on as meaningless/BS. Two of those four are villagers and should play their best villager game to help us out the rest of the way. If they turtle up and leave it for the three in the CoT to make all the decisions then they aren't helping win the game. And I can't believe it would be all that much fun to play along the rest of the way in that mode. |
05-08-2007, 04:02 PM | #340 |
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The 4 uncleared voting patterns from the first two days:
Day1: Ntn - Hoopsguy Path - Peregrine Daddytorgo - Kwhit Alan - No vote Day 2: Ntn - Kwhit Path - Hoopsguy Daddytorgo - St.cronin Alan - St.cronin Obviously every single vote for a villager from everyone. |
05-08-2007, 04:02 PM | #341 | |
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Ok. not meaningless. But all of our votes should be looked at under a microscope. Even moreso than normal. |
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05-08-2007, 04:39 PM | #342 | |
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I didn't vote for Peregrine day 1, I voted for Molly.
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05-08-2007, 05:13 PM | #343 |
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So I just went back through the thread to look at the comments from Alan, DT and ntn. I have the luxury of knowing that I am vanilla, so I won't bother to comment on me.
The way I was looking at it was trying to figure out the one who wasn't a wolf which would leave me with the two who are. The worst factor with Alan is the missed vote, IMO. If he was a wolf, that's a crappy position to be in, either way you are the deciding vote on a villager, or if you try to hide somewhere else it's way too obvious at that point -- so instead, go with the night kill of Molly and then play the "see, I told you they were both good so I didn't vote" route. The mitigating factor is the argument with Hoops. Alan is always vocal, but that's an unneccessary thing to get into if you're a wolf. The 'villager' thing would have been a clever play. Lathum has misspelled that as long as I've played WW with him, so it would have been a percentage play to call it out -- and Alan and DT were the only ones who in their check in message did not say if they were a wolf or not. And I know Alan likes to not out and out lie whenever possible. Bottom line, he could be a wolf. But I'm leaning that he's not. Now DT is another story altogether. I'm almost positive he's a wolf. Go back and look through his posts and you see two things pop out. 1) He hasn't offered any analysis. Whether right or wrong, DT usually has some kind of theory. Not this game....as a matter of fact he's gone all over the place, repeating one idea and then doing the opposite. 2) There are multiple references to wolves. They strike me more as knowing than innocent. I will be very surprised if he is not bad this game. ntn. I've got nothin'. He's a clever and careful player either way and leaves very little to analyze. So my conclusion is this. DaddyTorgo is one wolf. I believe ntn is probably the other, but Alan is possible. I'd rank them in that order.
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05-08-2007, 05:59 PM | #344 |
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Swamped at work this afternoon, so I haven't been able to do much more than take a peek - hasn't been too much to digest, though.
My thoughts on Path's list. - Alan: certainly possible his "wolf PM" could have mentioned "eating villagers". But there are enough little touches in his play for me that suggest off-base villager in the first couple of days - NTN: was really curious what Path might have to say here because I don't have much to work with on him either. I'm of the opinion that either he or DaddyT is a wolf; same position I was in last small game (we lost, neither was a wolf) - DaddyT: general feel is that he wants to take more shots as a villager than as a wolf. Plays a little too nicely with others as a wolf, and I've seen some of that this game. - Path: easiest of the group for me to put an agenda on with his play, but hardest for me to be impartial about since the agenda seemed to be taking me out. |
05-08-2007, 06:27 PM | #345 |
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no edit rule - swap "eating villagers" to "eating villegars" for the note on Alan. I can't type the word backwards without thinking hard about it
Villager, derived from the word "Village" ... I'm hoping Lathum is sick enough of seeing this crap posted that we fix his little mental hang-up. |
05-08-2007, 06:48 PM | #346 |
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I'm out having dinner...I will worry about what's been going on since 3pm when I got home.
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05-08-2007, 06:58 PM | #347 |
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I don't mind which ever way to go as I see possibilities with each of the three being wolves. So since I do need to put a vote out there...
Vote path |
05-08-2007, 06:59 PM | #348 |
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I'm out until after deadline, but I'm not one to plead anyway, especially when I'm good. We'll see what happens.
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05-08-2007, 08:47 PM | #349 |
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Spooky quiet here.
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05-08-2007, 08:48 PM | #350 |
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