FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions

[Solecismic]

He doesn't have elite straight-line speed, but do not underrate his athletic skills. He will present a problem for offenses. If the Lions didn't think they needed a top CB, or think their guy will be there at 34, it's not a bad pick at all.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

This first round has made me sad and unhappy.

Samesies. Maybe I had my hopes too high. I was all in on Brad out maneuvering this draft like he did last year. Feels right now like he got played.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

This first round has made me sad and unhappy.

Well even if Detroit fans are disappointed with the Lions tonight they could always find hope with the 9-15 Detroit Tigers... I mean Red Wings... or Pistons.. I mean Jesus F Christ. How is a town this bad at sports?

[thesloppy]

I don't hate the pick because I could be easily convinced that ILB is the biggest hole on this defense & Campbell seems like a high-floor kind of player.

[sterlingice]

Doesn't the Campbell pick look better if the Lions took Gonzalez at 12? But it feels like now they're having to chase bad draft picks all draft



SI

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Doesn't the Campbell pick look better if the Lions took Gonzalez at 12? But it feels like now they're having to chase bad draft picks all draft


SI

I just question the value of the pick regardless. Big, sure tacklers that don't have the speed to hold up in coverage aren't the type of linebackers you generally take in the 1st round.

Trenton Simpson seems like a better pick in today's NFL.

He's probably a very safe pick, but you walk out of this first round with a running back that isn't a 3 down guy and a ILB that might not be a 3 down guy.

[bronconick]

Do either of these 1st round picks improve the Lions in '23? Hard to see how.

If you believe in Montgomery and Anzalone enough to give them 3 year deals, you don't use this draft capital for these two guys

[Honolulu_Blue]

I won’t be able to listen to any post-draft podcasts or analyses.

I’m out!

[Solecismic]

I'm not a fan of the RB pick. Seemed far too soon. Campbell has the size to hang with tight ends, and his combine performance suggests he won't be lost on passing downs. Whenever just about everyone seems delighted to project a guy to their team in the second round, that's a sign he's probably a first-round guy.

Trading into #34 means they could have a good plan to upgrade the defense and still take a flyer on a skill position. Just don't do it again.

[thesloppy]

Prisco gave the Campbell pick an A+ for better or worse.

[QuikSand]

I’m out on these fucking clowns

[JonInMiddleGA]

I think Gibbs can be an impactful NFL player ... I just don't get why they paid Montgomery AND took Gibbs.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

But, for some reason, the Lions are just more entertaining this way… They’re in a more interesting position, and I am pretty deeply invested in what they are going to do in this year’s draft.

well, this take didn't age well

[albionmoonlight]

I realize that I’m probably overly-focused on positional value. But even if a RB and a stack LB end up being very good players, it’s still hard to justify those picks at those points in the first round.

[QuikSand]

...add to that, that both picks were massive reaches compared to widely available consensus boards. So, even if you were dead set on getting those two guys, you had maybe a 90% or better chance of getting them at 18 and 34 rather than 12 and 18. Take CB Gonzalez at 12 and still land these two and it's at least a defensible draft, maybe only guilty of frittering away the obvious gain from the trade-down, rather than a total clown show.

[Honolulu_Blue]

The first round made me sad and unhappy.

For the first time in 20 years the Lions are favored to win the division and the NFC is pretty wide open. This draft was pivotal given where they are in the rebuild and the extra draft capital from the Stafford and Hockenson trades.

So, they end up reaching for two players at non-premium positions. The value of RBs and LBs has never been lower in the league. Sequan Barkley was the last running back taken in the top half of the first round before tonight. Two running backs never go. It was a huge reach. Campbell was a reach too. He struggles in pass coverage.

I like both players and if they had taken these guys in the second, I’d be thrilled, but they didn’t. They could have sat at 6 and taken Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson and then, say, Deonte Banks at 18 and seriously improved their poopy defense.

Now watch them draft a guard or tight end at 34.

I believed in you, Brad Holmes!

[BYU 14]

I just have no words, this was a potential moment and they had the worst first round in the league and it ain't close

[flere-imsaho]

2023 Lions front office suddenly regressed to pre-2023 Lions front office, I see.

[Edward64]

They were apparently very hyped when they got Gibbs

https://twitter.com/TWDTV1/status/16...3-nfl-draft%2F

Brad Holmes almost breaks the table in excitement as he and Dan Campbell are glad to draft the versatile, explosive Jahmyr Gibbs #NFLDraft

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

I just have no words, this was a potential moment and they had the worst first round in the league and it ain't close

I'd hesitate to judge it until 2-3 years have passed. They traded down when the only DE very likely to be worth #6 was taken. They picked up an early pick today and future value. And they took two guys whose average mock draft position was far lower than when they took them, but, and here's the key point, both do things that most starters at their positions don't do.

So that reflects a different philosophy, a different take on "best player available" than what more conservative teams exhibit. Either player may have been still available at 34. Or maybe not. It just takes one team. What do the Lions perceive as replacement level, or easily available in lower rounds?

I wouldn't give them an A grade, and I think they should have tried to trade down more if they concluded that Gibbs was worth the #12 pick because RBs, especially those his size, don't see the field enough to be worth it, but it's too early to say much. Drafting is never going to be an exact science. If it were, every team that passed on Tom Brady before he was taken at #199 gets an F, including the team that drafted him.

[JPhillips]

Pretty much has to be Mayer, right?

[QuikSand]

https://twitter.com/tompelissero/sta...k0QxGYTxadQwhA

[QuikSand]

Drafting is not an exact science, we all get that.

But you MUST be willing to take chances when they’re heavily skewed in your favor. Period. If you LOVE Gibbs as your BPA at 12, you just must make every opportunity to trade down to a space like, say, 24… and then commit to taking him there. He’d still be a reach there, by nearly every forecast, but you get your guy, a cheaper contract, and at minimum an extra 2nd round pick to use on the actual premium position you neglected by reaching for the RB.

So, my quarrel is not precisely that they chose this running back as their target player. My quarrel is the means by which they did it. They should have been willing to absorb some chance of losing out on that particular player, to gather all the benefits of trying to do so at a more reasonable point.

And basically ditto for the LB.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Drafting is not an exact science, we all get that.

But you MUST be willing to take chances when they’re heavily skewed in your favor. Period. If you LOVE Gibbs as your BPA at 12, you just must make every opportunity to trade down to a space like, say, 24… and then commit to taking him there. He’d still be a reach there, by nearly every forecast, but you get your guy, a cheaper contract, and at minimum an extra 2nd round pick to use on the actual premium position you neglected by reaching for the RB.

So, my quarrel is not precisely that they chose this running back as their target player. My quarrel is the means by which they did it. They should have been willing to absorb some chance of losing out on that particular player, to gather all the benefits of trying to do so at a more reasonable point.

And basically ditto for the LB.

To add to that, even if you hit on both of these picks, how much do they potentially impact winning? You still have an off ball linebacker and a situational running back.

This draft for the Lions was set up in a way that they could grab impact players early and still have the extra picks to maneuver to grab needs at less impactful positions in the back part of round 1 or early round 2.

[Bobble]

Smokescreens, copium, and all that but Brad said that he got texts after the pick from other GMs saying that Gibbs would be taken by #18. Specifically by the Jets at #15 and possibly Patriots at #17. He chuckled when some had Gibbs mocked in the 50s. If he's a first rounder to you and he's your guy, you probably do what they did and get him when you're sure you can get him.

Same with Campbell at #18. Brad said that there were talks from teams to move up into the end of round 1 to get Campbell. He admitted he might have been able to game it a little and move down a few spots but they chose to take the guy they wanted when they were sure they'd get him.

[QuikSand]

We'll never know what would have happened. The Jets drafting Gibbs in round one is a prop I would have gladly booked at virtually any price, I just cannot see how that could possibly have happened. But sure, there's always a theory why you had to reach like a fool.

[JPhillips]

I can't imagine the Jets would give up on Hall and take Gibbs. Or if they wasted their 1st on a back to team with Hall they're even dumber than the Lions.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I'd hesitate to judge it until 2-3 years have passed. They traded down when the only DE very likely to be worth #6 was taken. They picked up an early pick today and future value. And they took two guys whose average mock draft position was far lower than when they took them, but, and here's the key point, both do things that most starters at their positions don't do.

So that reflects a different philosophy, a different take on "best player available" than what more conservative teams exhibit. Either player may have been still available at 34. Or maybe not. It just takes one team. What do the Lions perceive as replacement level, or easily available in lower rounds?

I wouldn't give them an A grade, and I think they should have tried to trade down more if they concluded that Gibbs was worth the #12 pick because RBs, especially those his size, don't see the field enough to be worth it, but it's too early to say much. Drafting is never going to be an exact science. If it were, every team that passed on Tom Brady before he was taken at #199 gets an F, including the team that drafted him.

They seemed all in on Christian Gonzalez,any insight why they would not have grabbed him at 12? I know physicality was one knock, so wondering if they were hoping he would fall them at 18. I just don't see taking Gibbs that high as a need, when he would have most likely fallen to them at 34, then get the LB at 41.

Also Kancey would have filled a position of need at 18, even Smith-Njigbe there. Guess they could still get Joey Porter Jr at 34 if Pittsburgh doesn't jump on him.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Edward64

They were apparently very hyped when they got Gibbs

https://twitter.com/TWDTV1/status/16...3-nfl-draft%2F

Everybody's body language in that clip sure suggests they actually did value Gibbs that high, for whatever that is worth. I don't think that many old dudes could effectively fake enthusiasm.

It feels worth pointing out that we all almost universally agreed that Holmes had a stellar offseason...but the one move that we collectively scratched our heads at was the Montgomery signing. With a little hindsight it sure seems to suggest that Holmes values RB very highly & perhaps on an entirely different scale than the rest of the league. I am also reminded of when Dan Campbell took over offensive playcalling duties two years ago and tried to run the ball like 80% of plays.

As far as trading Swift goes I don't imagine he attracts anything more than a 4th or 5th and at that point it seems like you almost get more value keeping him around, if leaning into RBs hard is the plan. Shrug

[Bobble]

Round 2. Feeling like Porter, Mayer, Branch all seem like good value at #34.

[QuikSand]

So I mocked LaPorta to the Lions a lot with those mid-2nd rounders, so I’m ok with the fit. I liked him over Musgrave fir them.

But over Mayer? And also over the Georgia giant? Didn’t see that coming.

[bronconick]

Skip Meyer to draft LaPorta from Iowa. "Not an overpowering blocker"

So, T.J. Hockensen part 2.

[Ksyrup]

My daughter is so pissed the Lions didn't pick the kid from CovCath.

[Bobble]

Lions move up to #45. Benton maybe?

[NobodyHere]

It looks like the Lions decided to Branch out.

[Bobble]

Hoping for Adetomiwa Adebawore at the end of the second.

[NobodyHere]

I did not see Hooker to the Lions

[sterlingice]

There were some mock drafts here where people picked him


SI

[Bobble]

Motor City Football's report on Hooker

[GrantDawg]

I really like Hooker. I think he might end up being a steal here.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[thesloppy]

Hmm. I was still kind of hoping for a veteran backup at that #2 QB slot, but maybe this ends that conversation.

[Honolulu_Blue]

I. Hate. This. Draft.

Hendon Hooker - Old. Injured. Was only good in an offense that can’t exist in the NFL. The same offense that hoodwinked people into thinking Drew Lock was a viable NFL QB.

[JPhillips]

Brodric Martin might win the draft pick with the lowest relative athletic score - 2.14.

[Bobble]

The Lion's draft this far is the Island of Misfit Toys. If you have low positional value or a RAS at either end of the spectrum, the Lions got you.

[QuikSand]

Well, RB Swift had no value, obviously, so we shrewdly gather a 4th rounder in a future draft because we are a really smart front office.

[bronconick]

Well, either Swift will have 1,800 yards from scrimmage in 16 games because he's in Philly now and transformed from that Unbreakable movie, or he'll play 6 games separated by three weeks each because he's still a glass cannon.

[thesloppy]

Saw that coming, but still not particularly happy about it. Throw Swift on the pile of highly talented Lions RBs that got derailed by injuries. I'd love to say I wish him well, but the paltry compensation kinda dictates that I can't.

Was reading an article earlier today that suggested if the Lions had picked the exact same players using the same picks, but instead gone in order of Brian Branch, Jahmyr Gibbs, Hendon Hooker, Jack Campbell and Sam LaPorta then people would have universally loved it. I'm not sure I agree 100% but it's also not absolutely wrong. Personally I still think/hope that Holmes had enough positives during free agency this year that I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt on this draft process, which always takes years to truly evaluate any way. YMMV.

Does seem like WR has bubbled up to become top worry again, after the gambling suspensions and this draft coloring in most of the other holes.

[GrantDawg]

Detroit GM says they would have took Bijan at 6 if they hadn't traded down.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Does seem like WR has bubbled up to become top worry again, after the gambling suspensions and this draft coloring in most of the other holes.

Looks like they did pick up a receiver in round 7 fwiw.

[Solecismic]

1 12 Jahmyr Gibbs RB Alabama
1 18 Jack Campbell LB Iowa
2 34 Sam LaPorta TE Iowa
2 45 Brian Branch S Alabama
3 68 Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee
3 96 Brodric Martin DT Western Kentucky
5 152 Colby Sorsdal OT William & Mary
7 219 Antoine Green WR North Carolina

OK. So it's likely almost a zero on adding to the line mix. Martin might have situational value. Maybe Sorsdal can develop, though it's a project. Teams often take a flyer like that. In Branch and Campbell, I think they have two guys who will play a lot, contribute right off the bat. In that sense, a successful draft. But with two first-round picks, I think they could have done better.