2013-14 MLB Off Season Thread

[Subby]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Leave it to a Cards fan to lecture other posters about how to post "the right way".

Heh. I chortled.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Leave it to a Cards fan to lecture other posters about how to post "the right way".

SI

[PilotMan]

GM on Peralta: Cardinals not 'morality police' - Yahoo Sports

{insert favorite meme here}

[lungs]

Good for the Cardinals and good for Jhonny Peralta. The players whining about his deal can cry me a river.

[jbergey22]

Johnny Peralta.

Over 21 percent K rate for the first time since 2007. His BABIP was 375 last year which was 60 points higher than his career mark which would explain how he was able to increase his average despite striking out quite a bit more.

I generally will defend most moves the cards make because they have proved themselves over and over but on this one I just still cant figure out. I think the Cards just gave 52 million to a 240-250 hitter that will hit 10 home runs and play average defense.

Some years calling him a good hitter is even a stretch. In 2012 with the Tigers he was where the rally ended.

Maybe they should move this guy to 3rd, keep Carpy at 2nd, and trade Wong for a shortstop.

[Butter]

The Cardinals have the magic touch when it comes to these things. His BABIP next year will be like .642 and he will have a zillion home runs, I'm sure.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

The Cardinals have the magic touch when it comes to these things. His BABIP next year will be like .642 and he will have a zillion home runs, I'm sure.

You forgot to add that he'll also be playing the game the right way.

[Butter]

That's worth a +0.5 in WAR alone.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Johnny Peralta.

Over 21 percent K rate for the first time since 2007. His BABIP was 375 last year which was 60 points higher than his career mark which would explain how he was able to increase his average despite striking out quite a bit more.

I generally will defend most moves the cards make because they have proved themselves over and over but on this one I just still cant figure out. I think the Cards just gave 52 million to a 240-250 hitter that will hit 10 home runs and play average defense.

Some years calling him a good hitter is even a stretch. In 2012 with the Tigers he was where the rally ended.

Maybe they should move this guy to 3rd, keep Carpy at 2nd, and trade Wong for a shortstop.

Peralta is actually a fantastic defensive SS. So you may be paying more for that aspect of his game.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Peralta is actually a fantastic defensive SS. So you may be paying more for that aspect of his game.

The metrics may say so but watching him play tells a different story. I really dont trust them metrics at all. Defense should be fairly consistent yet them metrics are not. He is pretty sure handed though but I dont think his range his very good.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Johnny Peralta.

Over 21 percent K rate for the first time since 2007. His BABIP was 375 last year which was 60 points higher than his career mark which would explain how he was able to increase his average despite striking out quite a bit more.

I generally will defend most moves the cards make because they have proved themselves over and over but on this one I just still cant figure out. I think the Cards just gave 52 million to a 240-250 hitter that will hit 10 home runs and play average defense.

Some years calling him a good hitter is even a stretch. In 2012 with the Tigers he was where the rally ended.

Maybe they should move this guy to 3rd, keep Carpy at 2nd, and trade Wong for a shortstop.

This is a good article about the overall value:
Jhonny Peralta and the Price of Nerd Favorites | FanGraphs Baseball

He's hit .303, .239 and .299 the past 3 seasons. His BABIB has been .374, .275 and .325. For his career, his BABIB is .315 and ave is .268 - that seems pretty reasonable for an expectation. He's also averaged around 16 HR if you prorate last season over the past few years. So, if the Cards can get an average of his last 3 seasons on D at SS (10 UZR), ave (.270) and HR (16) - I think they will be pretty pleased. He had a 3.6 WAR last season and missed 50 games. A 3-4 WAR SS would be a massive improvement over Kozma.

In terms of money, Carp ($11 M), Beltran ($13 M), Furcal ($7 M), Mujica ($3 M) and Westbrook ($9 M) are all off the books. Add in the $6 mil raise for Wainwright and the Peralta contract and you are still about $25 mil under what they spent last year - esp when you count the money saved in the Freese trade. So, odds are this move isn't going to hurt them the next few years in terms of keeping their current young players.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

The metrics may say so but watching him play tells a different story. I really dont trust them metrics at all. Defense should be fairly consistent yet them metrics are not. He is pretty sure handed though but I dont think his range his very good.

A fielder with limited range can mitigate that lack of range through positioning, no?

I can accept the flukiness of a one year sample but Peralta has consistently put up pretty decent SS advanced stats since joining the Tigers while his numbers with the Indians were pretty mediocre. Could it be such a thing that the Tigers have had better advanced scouting and did a better job in positioning Peralta?

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Arles

This is a good article about the overall value:
Jhonny Peralta and the Price of Nerd Favorites | FanGraphs Baseball

He's hit .303, .239 and .299 the past 3 seasons. His BABIB has been .374, .275 and .325. For his career, his BABIB is .315 and ave is .268 - that seems pretty reasonable for an expectation. He's also averaged around 16 HR if you prorate last season over the past few years. So, if the Cards can get an average of his last 3 seasons on D at SS (10 UZR), ave (.270) and HR (16) - I think they will be pretty pleased. He had a 3.6 WAR last season and missed 50 games. A 3-4 WAR SS would be a massive improvement over Kozma.

In terms of money, Carp ($11 M), Beltran ($13 M), Furcal ($7 M), Mujica ($3 M) and Westbrook ($9 M) are all off the books. Add in the $6 mil raise for Wainwright and the Peralta contract and you are still about $25 mil under what they spent last year - esp when you count the money saved in the Freese trade. So, odds are this move isn't going to hurt them the next few years in terms of keeping their current young players.

It is hard to argue against Dave Cameron. I guess I never really thought of Peralta as a "nerdy" type favorite. In fact I would have thought they would have some major concerns about a signing like that. People like me are likely just not understanding the market is flooded with extra money and limited resources available.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by lungs

A fielder with limited range can mitigate that lack of range through positioning, no?

I can accept the flukiness of a one year sample but Peralta has consistently put up pretty decent SS advanced stats since joining the Tigers while his numbers with the Indians were pretty mediocre. Could it be such a thing that the Tigers have had better advanced scouting and did a better job in positioning Peralta?

I really have no idea how the metrics come about. I dont know if things like P/x are used or what to determine velocity off the bat or any of what helps them determine this. I do know that certain stadiums have "hot" radar guns so that a pitchers velocity can be up to 3mph faster at certain parks so Id question the technology in this as well.

[jbergey22]

Not only do the Twins have Bronson Arroyo as their #1 free agent target this offseason, they are offering Pelfrey a multi-year extension. This is really about as bad as it can get.

You would think the 5.26 ERA, the starting staff that pitched the least amount of innings yet gave up the most hits, and the only starting staff to strike out less than 500 would have taught them something. Sadly it hasn't.

Their failure to adapt is killing them. Where is this innovative team from 10 years ago?

[Arles]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

It is hard to argue against Dave Cameron. I guess I never really thought of Peralta as a "nerdy" type favorite. In fact I would have thought they would have some major concerns about a signing like that. People like me are likely just not understanding the market is flooded with extra money and limited resources available.

I think position scarcity is a huge factor with SS. Your FA options were Boras' Drew (lefty with sketchy D when the team badly needed a right-handed bat) or Peralta. Outside of that, you would have to part with a top prospect like Miller or Martinez to land someone like Hardy (last year of his deal) or Alexei Ramirez. Given that outlook, I think the contract to Peralta is the best move. Remember, not only would have had to deal with Boras for Drew, they would have had to give a first round pick to the Sox since he was tendered.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Not only do the Twins have Bronson Arroyo as their #1 free agent target this offseason, they are offering Pelfrey a multi-year extension. This is really about as bad as it can get.

You would think the 5.26 ERA, the starting staff that pitched the least amount of innings yet gave up the most hits, and the only starting staff to strike out less than 500 would have taught them something. Sadly it hasn't.

Their failure to adapt is killing them. Where is this innovative team from 10 years ago?

How would you like a Joe Blanton? You can have him for free!

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

How would you like a Joe Blanton? You can have him for free!

He seems like a Twins type of pitcher. I wouldnt offer him up for free as the Twins would likely give a top level prospect for a guy with his control.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think position scarcity is a huge factor with SS. Your FA options were Boras' Drew (lefty with sketchy D when the team badly needed a right-handed bat) or Peralta. Outside of that, you would have to part with a top prospect like Miller or Martinez to land someone like Hardy (last year of his deal) or Alexei Ramirez. Given that outlook, I think the contract to Peralta is the best move. Remember, not only would have had to deal with Boras for Drew, they would have had to give a first round pick to the Sox since he was tendered.

Drew is a good defender, it's his health that's questionable.

And minor point, but the signing team no longer gives the pick to the old team, it just disappears (with the new team only getting a comp pick after the now abbreviated 1st round). So even though the Cardinals will get the last of ~12 comp picks for Beltran, it could be up around the 30th pick in the draft instead of #42 as in years past. (I've gotta double-check on where the 5 competitive balance picks go.)

[Arles]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Drew is a good defender, it's his health that's questionable.

I guess he's gotten better after looking at the stats. I just remember his four seasons in Arizona where he had 52 total errors. He just doesn't seem there mentally a portion of the time. Combined with his injury past and .196 avg against leftys and I think he would be a much worse fit.

And minor point, but the signing team no longer gives the pick to the old team, it just disappears (with the new team only getting a comp pick after the now abbreviated 1st round). So even though the Cardinals will get the last of ~12 comp picks for Beltran, it could be up around the 30th pick in the draft instead of #42 as in years past. (I've gotta double-check on where the 5 competitive balance picks go.)

Here's what the rules say:

If a team loses a player who turned down a qualifying offer to sign elsewhere, the player's original team will obtain a single compensatory selection between the first and second rounds of the draft (the qualifying offers, which are based on the average salary of baseball’s 125 best-paid players, are expected to be worth $12.5MM or so).

Meanwhile, the team that signs the free agent will lose a first round selection (though the top ten picks are protected).

So, if the Cards signed Drew, the Cardinals would lose their first round pick. Then, if a team signed Beltran, they would get a sandwich pick at end of the "1.5" round.

However, by signing Peralta, they get to keep their first round pick and get the extra sandwich pick once another team signs Beltran. So, it basically comes down to Drew vs. Peralta and a top 30 pick.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Arles

I guess he's gotten better after looking at the stats. I just remember his four seasons in Arizona where he had 52 total errors. He just doesn't seem there mentally a portion of the time. Combined with his injury past and .196 avg against leftys and I think he would be a much worse fit.

JD had the same problem where he looked like he didn't care/try hard, but always graded out above average. I think the Cards made the right move here, but there's really no difference between Peralta and Drew over the last 3-4 years once you average out their stats. Both above-average, but not GG defenders, and above-average hitters by the low standards of their position.

So, if the Cards signed Drew, the Cardinals would lose their first round pick. Then, if a team signed Beltran, they would get a sandwich pick at end of the "1.5" round.

However, by signing Peralta, they get to keep their first round pick and get the extra sandwich pick once another team signs Beltran. So, it basically comes down to Drew vs. Peralta and a top 30 pick.

It's semantics, but the Cards wouldn't be "giving" a 1st round pick to the Red Sox - someone will sign Drew anyway, so we'll get that pick. They do save by not losing their own 1st round pick. The only real reason I point that out is that up to 2 years the Red Sox would have gotten the Cards 1st round pick AND the sandwich pick.

[jbergey22]

Nolasco to the Twins 49 million over 4 years I believe. Decent signing I suppose. Wish he could be our 3rd-4th starter instead of the ace though.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

JD had the same problem where he looked like he didn't care/try hard, but always graded out above average. I think the Cards made the right move here, but there's really no difference between Peralta and Drew over the last 3-4 years once you average out their stats. Both above-average, but not GG defenders, and above-average hitters by the low standards of their position.

They are similar, but Peralta's right handed bat gives him the edge (plus the no compensation). To me Peralta + the Cards first round pick is vastly better than Drew for this team.

It's semantics, but the Cards wouldn't be "giving" a 1st round pick to the Red Sox - someone will sign Drew anyway, so we'll get that pick. They do save by not losing their own 1st round pick. The only real reason I point that out is that up to 2 years the Red Sox would have gotten the Cards 1st round pick AND the sandwich pick.

Actually, you don't get the teams pick anymore, they just forfeit it:

If a team makes such a qualifying offer to an outgoing free agent and the free agent signs elsewhere, then his former team will receive a sandwich draft pick between the first and second rounds. The signing team, meanwhile, will forfeit its first-round choice -- unless it's a top-10 pick, in which case the team would give up a second-round pick. The lost picks don't go to any other team; rather, the teams behind the vanished pick all slide up a slot.

How the new free agent compensation system works - CBSSports.com

[sterlingice]

Hm... Jason Vargas 4/32 or Ricky Nolaso at 4/49. Oof.

If you knew your GM was going to make one of these bad deals, which would you rather have?

SI

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Hm... Jason Vargas 4/32 or Ricky Nolaso at 4/49. Oof.

If you knew your GM was going to make one of these bad deals, which would you rather have?

SI

It wouldnt be Vargas.

Vargas career xFIP is 4.63 while Nalasco's is 3.75. Vargas has a career road ERA of 5.18 while Nolasco's is 4.30. Vargas has been very fortunate that he has gotten to play half of his games in very pitcher friendly parks in Seattle and Anaheim.

Nolasco has consistently been a 2.5-4 WAR pitcher so if he can continue that its not a "bad deal". The sabermetric community thinks 1 WAR = 3-4 million. That may need to be re-looked at after this past free agent signing period.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Hm... Jason Vargas 4/32 or Ricky Nolaso at 4/49. Oof.

If you knew your GM was going to make one of these bad deals, which would you rather have?

SI

Vargas. 8 mil annually is going to be easier to get rid of than 12.25.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by BillJasper

Vargas. 8 mil annually is going to be easier to get rid of than 12.25.

Depends on how they pitch. Id take my chances on Nolasco. I am not a huge Nolasco fan but I have a hard time believing anyone would give Vargas anything more than a roster invitation to Spring. His long fly ball outs worked in Seattle. In a normal stadium them long fly balls become home runs.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Depends on how they pitch. Id take my chances on Nolasco. I am not a huge Nolasco fan but I have a hard time believing anyone would give Vargas anything more than a roster invitation to Spring. His long fly ball outs worked in Seattle. In a normal stadium them long fly balls become home runs.

Fortunately, KC is a huge home run suppressor, too. That said, I still think it's an awful deal (Vargas). Even at 3/24, it's a bad deal. With an extra year, it's awful.

Whereas I think if you squint hard enough, you can see the Nolasco deal not sucking

SI

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Found some news that SI should be pretty excited about.......

Royals, general manager Dayton Moore agree to two-year contract extension | royals.com: News

[sterlingice]

sad trombone

SI

[sterlingice]

Phil Hughes at 3/$24 to the Twins (aka the same money and 1 year less than Vargas)

SI

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Phil Hughes at 3/$24 to the Twins (aka the same money and 1 year less than Vargas)

SI

Well that is a different type of signing for the twins. One of the most extreme flyball pitchers in the league. Far more upside than Vargas at the same price. Will likely end up being a bad deal however.

[Suicane75]

Well you have to give them credit for trying to get back to mediocre.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

Well you have to give them credit for trying to get back to mediocre.

This!

If I had to go through another season of Deduno, Diamond, Pelphrey, Correia and whoever else they tried to get some outs I was going to become a Royals fan

I actually dont mind Deduno as a 5th starter. The rest of them I have no interest in seeing pitch again for the Twins.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

Well that is a different type of signing for the twins. One of the most extreme flyball pitchers in the league. Far more upside than Vargas at the same price. Will likely end up being a bad deal however.

I'm not sure I was clear: I'd take the Hughes deal in a heartbeat. He has some upside whereas Vargas is mediocre ceiling, crappy floor.

SI

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm not sure I was clear: I'd take the Hughes deal in a heartbeat. He has some upside whereas Vargas is mediocre ceiling, crappy floor.

SI

Haha! Well I knew you didnt like the Vargas deal but at first I couldn't tell on your reaction to this one. I was thinking you didnt like this signing much either until your comparison comments to the Vargas deal.

These 3 signings though Vargas, Hughes, and Nolasco are kind of eye opening compared to past years. I think they would have all signed for 1/2-2/3 of what they did this year in prior years. Teams must be feeling a bit richer this year or are actually putting forth an effort to try and win some games.

[Atocep]

I don't think the Nolasco deal is all that bad. He's a mid rotation starter, but I don't really know what the Twins are trying to do. It's like their goal is to become a .500 team for the next few years if everything goes right for them.

Not a fan of the Hughes contract at all although I'd still take that deal over the Vargas contract.

On a side note, I'm interested to see how much of the farm system Dayton Moore sells off after this season to try to lock up another extension.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I don't think the Nolasco deal is all that bad. He's a mid rotation starter, but I don't really know what the Twins are trying to do. It's like their goal is to become a .500 team for the next few years if everything goes right for them.

Not a fan of the Hughes contract at all although I'd still take that deal over the Vargas contract.

On a side note, I'm interested to see how much of the farm system Dayton Moore sells off after this season to try to lock up another extension.

They are probably thinking them 2 top 10 prospects will be ready for the big leagues within the next 2 years and they need some sort of staff to put around them.

But you are exactly right, just like they couldnt build a staff around 5 #5s they arent going to be in much better shape with a #3, a #4, and 3 #5 starters. As far as I know they dont even anything in the minors close to being ready that could be a top of the rotation starter either. I think the desperate for pitching describes the Twins.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Fister to the Nationals for three youngsters, apparently Lombardozzi and Ray are included.

Doug Fister traded to the Washington Nationals for Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Krol and Robbie Ray - Bless You Boys

Edit: Washington's going to have a pretty amazing rotation.

[claphamsa]

and we gave up nothing for him! Huzah!

[ISiddiqui]

Here is Fangraph's take:

Nationals Steal Doug Fister From Tigers | FanGraphs Baseball

Basically: WTF were the Tigers thinking here?

[DougW]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Here is Fangraph's take:

Nationals Steal Doug Fister From Tigers | FanGraphs Baseball

Basically: WTF were the Tigers thinking here?

Have been wondering the same. Best I can come up with is they want to open a spot in the rotation for a lefty (Smyly ?). Fister sits 4th in the rotation, and will probably earn some good coin in a couple years (about the time they'll need to re-up Miggy). They needed to fill Infantes spot of utility infielder, replace Smyly in the bullpen with a lefty specialist - and got a decent pitching prospect.

I don't really like it, but if that's the scenario, I can "kinda" see what they were thinking.

[sterlingice]

I can't even get what the Tigers were doing if I squint

SI

[BishopMVP]

Red Sox agree to short-term (probably 1-year) deal with AJ Pierzynski. Not a terrible deal from a pure stats perspective, but as someone who actually watches the Red Sox I hate it. There might not be a more unlikeable player in the league, and I hate that he'll be on my team.

[Subby]

Wow - that almost makes up for the Denard Span trade. Almost.

[Subby]

FISTER???? I don't even know her!

Just getting that out of the way.

[cartman]

The Orioles are trying to one up the Tigers. They traded their closer Jim Johnson to the A's for Jemile Weeks and a player to be named later.

[DougW]

Originally Posted by DougW

Have been wondering the same. Best I can come up with is they want to open a spot in the rotation for a lefty (Smyly ?). Fister sits 4th in the rotation, and will probably earn some good coin in a couple years (about the time they'll need to re-up Miggy). They needed to fill Infantes spot of utility infielder, replace Smyly in the bullpen with a lefty specialist - and got a decent pitching prospect.

I don't really like it, but if that's the scenario, I can "kinda" see what they were thinking.

I feel like I nailed his thought process.

Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski Explains Why He Dealt Doug Fister « CBS Detroit

[CraigSca]

Originally Posted by cartman

The Orioles are trying to one up the Tigers. They traded their closer Jim Johnson to the A's for Jemile Weeks and a player to be named later.

This was purely a cash dump, and frankly, while I really like Johnson, there were times last year when he was an absolute disaster in the 9th inning and cost the Orioles a lot of games. There has always been talk about converting him to a starter, as he is more of a pitch to contact pitcher with a lot of movement on his pitches. My initial thoughts were that the A's would probably make him a starter and he'll probably win about 15 games a year.

Bittersweet - always liked Johnson and Weeks seems marginal at best. But really, this was all about freeing up $10m.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

This was purely a cash dump, and frankly, while I really like Johnson, there were times last year when he was an absolute disaster in the 9th inning and cost the Orioles a lot of games. There has always been talk about converting him to a starter, as he is more of a pitch to contact pitcher with a lot of movement on his pitches. My initial thoughts were that the A's would probably make him a starter and he'll probably win about 15 games a year.

Bittersweet - always liked Johnson and Weeks seems marginal at best. But really, this was all about freeing up $10m.

I don't think anyone's down on the Orioles for this deal, tho you could always have just gone the non-tender route. No one gets the A's angle: Weeks won't really be missed but why is anyone paying Johnson $10M next year?

SI