Werewolf CXXX - Rudyard Kipling's The Jungle Book - SEEONEE WOLF PACK WINS!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I hope Autumn gets scanned, something about their interactions earlier today pinged my radar

he and Jag that is.

When is the night deadline?

[CrimsonFox]

It is a somber night. It is not a restful sleep what with a tiger in your midst. Your dreams are disturbing. The great Shere Khan is here and at your door! He is chasing you. He is at your tail. One by one he swallows your cubs whole and he is about to eat YOU. As he grabs you by the tail, he roars in your face. The noise is deafening!

tiger (199x250).jpg
--and you awake to a loud tiger roar.--

You hurry outside and hear a roar and a scuffle in the darkness below. Many of you hurry out to the landing. There! You see something and run towards it. Is it the tiger?
No! It is one of your comrades.
353753310_1ed04f694c (250x188).jpg
The white wolf known as Danny.
He lies on his side, gouges all about him. There's one other strange thing about him. Oh, yes. His head is missing. That CERTAINLY is not the law of the jungle. About him you see tiger tracks as well as a long slithering line in the dust. The tracks of a python! With your comrade dead you all quickly retire to your caves to protect your cubs.

Danny was a vanilla member of the Seeonee wolf pack.

[mckerney]

Ok, so we did have night actions. Sad to see Danny go, but a cunning for a vanilla villager isn't a bad trade on day one.

[Lathum]

poor, poor Danny. He seems to get whacked early a lot these games.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I hope Autumn gets scanned, something about their interactions earlier today pinged my radar

Me too Lathum

[EagleFan]

Still lost but it sounds like we had a good day.

[EagleFan]

Final Vote Tally:

Zinto (6) - bhlloy (81) mauboy (133) Jackal (149) Autumn (194) J23 (218) PackerFanatic (220)
J23 (1) - Thomkal (98)
JAG (3) - MrBug (113) mckerney (227) Lathum (256)
PackerFanatic (8) - Danny (135) Narcizo (136) dwardzala (160) hoopsguy (182) Telle (197) EagleFan (239) JAG (246) Zinto (249)
mckerney (2) - Darth Vilus (159) Daddy Targo (229)
Not Voted: Gonzo

[MrBug708]

Where to now?

Re : Gonzo - Not voting is pretty bad, but it might be a safe assumption that he is a villager and doesn't care about his role?

[bhlloy]

So what the hell happened last night? Pretty spectacular own goal by Kaa if he switched the vote to tie up 2 villagers with the cunning in third place.

JAG's vote on PF looks very good for PF otherwise I'd say that's the direction to go in today. EF's vote looks pretty bad at face value as long as Zinto is a villager (and if we're assuming it was Kaa's play to tie it up, he's looking very good)

I'd say give Gonzo some time to check in otherwise he's gone but that's not good for voting history.

Anyone see a scenario other than Kaa that could be used to tie up the vote (assuming from CF's description that this wasn't a duking)? His write up seems to pretty strongly suggest there are no hidden roles but I may be missing something.

[Narcizo]

Well that was a lucky break and no mistake.

Given the (very good by the way, CF) description it's pretty clear that the vote was tied and this wasn't a duking by Akela. With this being a simple game with no suggestion of hidden mechanics that means that Kaa moved a vote from PackerFanatic to Zinto. So things would look really bad for Packer were it not for Jag's vote on him. And the fact that I have a hard time imagining the wolves would be as clumsy as to switch a vote so obviously and at such an early stage. I'll get to a rundown of the voting to see if anything springs to mind.

[Narcizo]

Sun 11:43 #71 Autumn votes Lathum (1)
Sun 14:28 #76 Thomkal votes Danny (1)
Sun 14:38 #77 Narcizo votes EagleFan (1)
Sun 17:05 #81 bhlloy votes Zinto (1)
Sun 19:05 #86 EagleFan votes Autumn (1)
Sun 20:47 #93 PackerFanatic votes Autumn (2)

09:43 #96 J23 votes Eaglefan (2)
10:49 #98 Thomkal unvotes Danny (0)
10:49 #98 Thomkal votes J23 (1)
11:45 #113 MrBug votes JAG (1)
11:55 #116 EagleFan unvotes Autumn (1)
11:55 #116 EagleFan votes J23 (2)
12:47 #118 Danny votes J23 (3)

14:23 #128 Zinto votes Mau (1)
14:32 #129 Danny unvotes J23 (2)
14:36 #133 Mau votes zinto (2)
14:36 #135 Danny votes PackerFanatic (1)
15:38 #136 Narcizo unvotes EagleFan (1)
15:38 #136 Narcizo votes PackerFanatic (2)
16:13 #141 Zinto unvotes Mau (0)
16:26 #143 JAG votes mckerney (1)
17:17 #145 Zinto votes mckerney (2)

17:35 #149 Jackal votes zinto (3)
17:53 #153 mckerney votes zinto (4)
18:08 #157 Autumn unvotes Lathum (0)
18:08 #157 Autumn votes JAG (2)
18:23 #159 Darth Vilus votes mckerney (3)
18:39 #160 Dwardzala votes PackerFanatic (3)

19:09 #172 EagleFan unvotes J23 (1)
19:09 #172 EagleFan votes mckerney (4)
19:25 #177 Lathum votes PackerFanatic (4)
19:36 #182 Hoopsguy votes PackerFanatic (5)
19:57 #190 Packer unvotes Autumn (0)
19:57 #190 Packer votes mckerney (5)
20:02 #191 DaddyTorgo votes Zinto (5)

20:23 #194 Autumn unvotes JAG (1)
20:23 #194 Autumn votes Zinto (6)
20:46 #196 DaddyTorgo unvotes Zinto (5)
20:49 #197 Telle votes Packer (6)
21:02 #207 mckerney unvotes Zinto (4)
21:02 #207 mckerney votes Packer (7)
21:08 #209 Lathum unvotes Packer (6)
21:08 #209 Lathum votes bhlloy (1)

21:30 #217 EagleFan unvotes mckerney (4)
21:31 #218 J23 unvotes EagleFan (0)
21:31 #218 J23 votes Zinto (5)
21:33 #220 Packer unvotes mckerney (3)
21:33 #220 Packer votes Zinto (6)
21:33 #221 Eaglefan votes Zinto (7)
21:41 #227 mckerney unvotes Packer (5)
21:41 #227 mckerney votes JAG (2)
21:42 #229 DaddyTorgo votes mckerney (4)
21:47 #239 EagleFan unvotes Zinto (6)
21:47 #239 EagleFan votes Packer (6)
21:53 #246 JAG unvotes mckerney (3)
21:53 #246 JAG votes Packer (7)
21:55 #249 Zinto unvotes mckerney (2)
21:55 #249 Zinto votes Packer (8)
22:00 #256 Lathum unvotes bhlloy (0)
22:00 #256 Lathum votes JAG (3)

[Narcizo]

Thinking about it my interpretation of the vote move is that we were villager/villager. From the wolves point of view they hoped that
a) nobody gets lynched - then we all chase Packer and possibly Zinto again day two, they basically get a free night kill.
b) both get lynched - they kill two villagers.
c) the lynch is randomed to someone - bit of a risk but the odds are still good that they'll hit a villager. Neither Zinto nor Packer revealed so it's likely that there's more of a chance of getting a roled player. Assuming 5 wolves and all roles being present then 9:5:5 of vanilla:roled:wolf.

In fact JAG moving from mckerney to Packer when he knew Zinto would likely also vote Packer makes it look like this is exactly what they were looking for - a two-vote split to allow them to make it a tie. If Zinto hadn't followed over they could have just taken a singleton vote and move it onto Zinto.

[bhlloy]

What jumps out from me is Lathum's play makes no sense at all. A new candidate 50 mins before the deadline and then a (seemingly) meaningless third vote on a new candidate right at the deadline that turns out to be absolutely key?

I mean I guess he's saved by the fact that JAG turned up wolf and the fact there's no way he votes a wolf into third if he knows the plan is to tie the vote up. But it's all very strange.

As for the explanation of what happened, this is the most plausible scenario to me:
Kaa and the wolves agree on a (conditional?) tie vote if it looks like it's going to happen, and then McKerney and Lathum's votes push a wolf into third late in the day and they don't have time to react. If so that puts McKerney and Lathum on a very high level of trust and makes EF the worst looking vote for me.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Thinking about it my interpretation of the vote move is that we were villager/villager. From the wolves point of view they hoped that
a) nobody gets lynched - then we all chase Packer and possibly Zinto again day two, they basically get a free night kill.
b) both get lynched - they kill two villagers.
c) the lynch is randomed to someone - bit of a risk but the odds are still good that they'll hit a villager. Neither Zinto nor Packer revealed so it's likely that there's more of a chance of getting a roled player. Assuming 5 wolves and all roles being present then 9:5:5 of vanilla:roled:wolf.

In fact JAG moving from mckerney to Packer when he knew Zinto would likely also vote Packer makes it look like this is exactly what they were looking for - a two-vote split to allow them to make it a tie. If Zinto hadn't followed over they could have just taken a singleton vote and move it onto Zinto.

Do you really think it's just random that the third placed voter got lynched? I thought that it was a given that it moved to the third placed candidate but I guess that might not be the case...

[Narcizo]

At the moment I feel very good about MrBug and Zinto. Absolutely no reason for MrBug to place a random vote on the cunning. If he wants to get cute as a wolf then at least put it on someone less valuable. And no way they put an invisible vote on Zinto if he's a baddy - there's no gain from that.

Also feel pretty good about Autumn, even if he did later move his vote he still put the second vote on the cunning. Had a run on JAG picked up it would have been really difficult for him to move his vote just by the way he phrased his vote. Also liking Packer for the reasons I've detailed above, although I don't rule out that the shifted vote was actually a save.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Do you really think it's just random that the third placed voter got lynched? I thought that it was a given that it moved to the third placed candidate but I guess that might not be the case...

Good point. I thought the description of the lynch was suggesting it was all random but on re-reading maybe it was just the fact that neither Packer nor Zinto got lynched that was random and it was JAG as the third vote-winner who got targeted. That does change things a bit but not a huge amount in my opinion.

Even if the wolves suspected that a vote might switch to the third candidate (and there's nothing in the rules to make them think that's the case) they wouldn't have known that JAG was the third candidate until it was too late.

[Danny]

Oh well, at least we had a good start, good luck village!

[CrimsonFox]

black_panther_sitting_on_tree_branch_42-16669937 (317x400).jpg

The dawn breaks and a new day begins. Everyone is a bit weary of the previous day's activities. Bagheera awakens from his sleep in the tall tree overlooking the council rock. He stretches and coughs up his morning hairballs and wanders down the tree branch to the rock below.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GupgVhTCw2Q

And he realizes he is not alone. There is a wolf standing there before council rock, completely on its own.
"Excuse me, friend. Are you alright?"
The wolf stares straight on, eyes all glassy.

Wolf Eyes_2_x (400x275).jpg

Bagheera sniffs the wolf to determine it is alive and looks close at the bulging eyes, when he struck by a thundrous noise.
"HOWWWWWWWWWWWL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
Bagheera jumps back a bit freaked out.
"Oh, you frightened me," he says, shaking himself from the scare, "I thought you might be--", but Bagheera trails off,
The wolf in front of him makes no movement. The howl is heard again, but it is obviously not coming from this wolf but from the distance.
"Oh, that'll be Akela," says Bagheera chuckling to himself, "it must be time for the hunt."
The wolf again makes no movement. Bagheera considering his options, and then bites the wolf on the leg. It jumps and yelps and looks around confused.
"Are you alright?" asks Bagheera.
"Um....where is everyone?" says the wolf, now actually blinking, "Where is the pack? It's time to vote."
"Time to vote? Voting is over. There is no more voting."
"No, there must be some mistake. There was no vote. What I mean is: We were just about to. I was just about to vote for PackerFanatic and the voting was taking SOOOO long, I just looked around for a minute into the trees and--who is that?"
"That? That is Tabaqui. Um...he was exposed trying to cause chaos and dissent in the pack during the vote. Don't you remember?"
"Remember?"
The wolf runs to the platform and reads Akela's tallies on the sacred stone.
"But there must be some mistake. I didn't vote."
"I'm afraid you did. We all heard you. And Akela wrote your vote down. See? There!"
"But...that's not who I was voting for!"
"It wasn't?"
"No. It wasn't. And it says here they tied. So how was Tabaqui picked?"
"It was fate. The Law of the Jungle... You know, the thing we teach you about EVERY DAY. The Law chose that on this occasion, these two wolves should not be chosen and it then," says Bagheera, touching the bone die still sitting there, "fate chose another. Fate can be a harsh mistress."
Dew from the die sticks to his paw. The wolf sniffs it suspiciously.
"You'd better run along and catch up to the pack. I'm sure Akela will want to know about this."
"Yes, Bagheera," says the confused wolf.
Bagheera watches the wolf run off toward the hunt. He looks down at Tabaqui's grinning face, then at the bone die and voting tally again.
"Baloo? Baloo wake up," shouts Bagheera, "Oh where is that lazy...BALOO!"
"Wh-What? What is it Bagheera?" says Baloo lifting his head from behind a bush, "I'm trying to sleep."
"Baloo, there's trouble afoot. Trouble for the pack. I'm worried."
"Oh, don't worry, Bagheera," says Baloo, crawling forward out of the bushes, "You worry too much, that's your problem."
Baloo rumbles forward and collapses into the pond, letting his belly flop soak the panther.
"Why you--!" says Bagheera, shivering from the cold water. He shakes his head at his big friend.
"Baloo, keep an eye on things. We have to be on our guard."

baloowater.jpg

DAY 2 begins...

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

As for the explanation of what happened, this is the most plausible scenario to me:
Kaa and the wolves agree on a (conditional?) tie vote if it looks like it's going to happen, and then McKerney and Lathum's votes push a wolf into third late in the day and they don't have time to react. If so that puts McKerney and Lathum on a very high level of trust and makes EF the worst looking vote for me.

After JAG got lynched one of my first thoughts was, "Oh good, that should clear me a bit and take me off the block for day too." Shortly after my werewolf panic emotions had me thinking, "Ugh, this probably actually looks like I thought I was placing a meaningless vote on a wolf so I can look good if he gets killed later. That would be a classic wolf move, I'm sure to get lynched tomorrow."

Definitely hoping everything thinks the first thing though.

[Narcizo]

Pulling up all of Jag's post. In all honesty I doubt we can read too much into them. He has two main interactions - one with myself and one with Lathum after deadline.

Originally Posted by JAG

So the roles look pretty standardish, other than the hypnotist (never played with that role in the game) and that the lovers have a kill ability (kind of wonder if CF added that as a nod to his role in the recent GF game). I imagine with the number of players we have, we can expect to see all the roles in play. The Hypnotist ability seems like it could be fairly dangerous in terms of messing with things.

Filler post. Active but not actually saying anything.

Originally Posted by JAG

I definitely get where you're coming from and for the most part I agree with you. The lack of chatter last game really hurt the village early on and I hope we're not going to see a repeat of that.

Having said that, for my part, I'm a perfectionist and I've been pretty disappointed with my early game play as of late. I really want to start this game off right and get some wolves on the block, and I'm not sure which way to go thus far.

This is to me going on about voting for quiet people.

Originally Posted by JAG

Again, no disagreement, but for myself, I had an inkling about J23 D1 two games ago, he turned out to be a wolf, and I was annoyed that I didn't at least vote him or do more to bring him up for discussion. Same thing with Lathum last game on D1 and I was even worse than the game two games back because I let him lead me around some until relatively late in the game. So I resolved this game to listen to (and vote with) that little voice in my head early on until we get some good info to analyze later.

Also replying to me. Is he making an excuse for prevaricating and there's a wolf on the block that he doesn't want to vote for or against? Doubtful, I think this is probably just padding. But I would be interested in hearing what Autumn saw that made him suspicious of JAG.

Originally Posted by JAG

I hate when I decide to go with my gut more early on and of course my gut hasn't given me direction other than at lunchtime. I have the same general unease others have so I'm going ahead and adding another quiet player to the mix (who I almost forgot was playing) rather than those who are at least contributing and that we can more easily suss out due to their posts as the game goes on.

Vote mckerney

I do agree with what Zinto's saying though, so guaranteed I will move this vote if it looks like it will end up a singleton.

First vote on mckerney is pretty meaningless either way - doesn't tell us anything about mckerney. I guess you could make a case for it suggesting one of the people already on the block was a wolf but JAG didn't want to put a vote on a villager in the mix so he pushes the idea that everyone currently on the block feel like villagers. But I really read it just as flavour with no meaning.

Originally Posted by JAG

So you like bhlloy because he put an early vote down?

Questioning Lathum.

Originally Posted by JAG

Unvote mckerney
Vote PackerFanatic

I don't think a tie with unknown mechanism is a great way to go here.

Pretty much covered this already. This was pretty near to deadline. I would hazard a guess that JAG actually thought a tie was a great result.

Originally Posted by JAG

Do you have a bridge in Brooklyn you want to sell me too?

But that's alright, I accept you play a deeper game and your oddness has some rhyme or reason that will eventually come to light.

Questioning Lathum's slightly eccentric voting.

Originally Posted by JAG

I don't want to argue your real life stuff distracting you, I just find it very hard to believe that an experienced player like yourself would not know what time deadline is, especially when there had been a discussion in the thread about it.

Now, what would you have to gain from lying about something that seems so blatantly obvious, I haven't a clue (thus my above comment).

First-level read is that JAG is laying groundwork for suspicions on Lathum. Usually first-level reads are the right ones so that means I'm slighly happier than neutral about Lathum. With the usual catch-all "Lathum is an experienced and clever wolfie etc etc" tacked on the end so I won't be putting undue trust in Lathum as a result.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

No, there must be some mistake. There was no vote. What I mean is: We were just about to. I was just about to vote for PackerFanatic and the voting was taking SOOOO long, I just looked around for a minute into the trees and--who is that?"

-Snip-

"It was fate. The Law of the Jungle... You know, the thing we teach you about EVERY DAY. The Law chose that on this occasion, these two wolves should not be chosen and it then," says Bagheera, touching the bone die still sitting there, "fate chose another. Fate can be a harsh mistress."

So that pretty much confirms that Kaa shifted the vote from Packer to Zinto. And it looks likely that there was a random chance of both Packer and Zinto being lynched but that didn't happen. Then it seems the lynch of JAG was random, although there's still a chance that it was the next-most votes.

I don't think the actual mechanic is important in analysis though - it's the wolves' perception of the mechanic that is important. If they thought that there was a risk that the tied vote would hit JAG as the third leading votee then it seems unlikely that Lathum is a wolf. I don't see any reason why they would think that though. So I don't think much can be read into that.

[Narcizo]

So to get a vote in. At the moment I have a bunch of people I feel better than average about but no-one I feel worse than average about. I suspect Gonzo is going to get a bunch of votes today but my instincts say that someone checking in and then going missing points to a vanilla villager.

Looking at quiet players again and based on the post count I get Dwardzala as next lowest to Gonzo. I don't think anyone has any idea about what you'd think his play-style is which means it will be tough to get a read on him. That'll make it very easy for him to glide through the game.

Vote dwardzala

(Very) open to change.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

EF's vote looks pretty bad at face value as long as Zinto is a villager

I don't really get this bhlloy. You mention EF's vote as being noticeably bad twice. Care to go over your reasoning? If you think zinto is a villager then surely EF moving his vote off of him isn't particularly bad?

[Narcizo]

I am THE king of early morning dolas.

[mauchow]

Perhaps we can find out whats what with the two last night. For now I'll keep my vote where I had it yesterday.

[vote]zinto[/b]

[mauchow]

Well, that was way off. Had a bad night's sleep:


vote zinto

[PackerFanatic]

My early sense is on my mckerney, based on his vote in post #227 - he is out of danger at this point and he throws his vote to a now-known wolf, potentially something he can point back to in the long run. Although the fact that JAG opened the voting on him is a point in his favor.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Well, that was way off. Had a bad night's sleep:

vote zinto

That's a bad vote. Run through your reasoning of how the way things went down last night equate with zinto being more likely to be a wolf than just about anyone else in the game. It makes no sense.

Now I'm not saying that zinto definitely isn't a wolf but, you know, the wolves wouldn't really have a whole lot of reason to risk him by fixing the votes so he was more likely to be lynched if he was, so that means there must be, ohhh, about 16-17 better candidates to vote for. Why wouldn't they just leave the vote as it was?

[Autumn]

Wow, I am just very, very good at picking JAG out as a wolf. I"m always surprised by it, because I think he's by far the best villager, far better than me. But he just acts funny when he's a wolf. Hooray!

[Autumn]

I've got to agree, I feel bad for Danny. When I've been a wolf I've been trying to give him a break of late, but he just can't catch one.

As always, when Danny dies, I place an evil eye on Darth. I know when Darth's a wolf he always pushes for Danny to go. Friends 4 life guys.

[Autumn]

And triple dola before I'm off for a few. I don't suggest we go after yesterday's vote leaders. I think it's better to let the seer deal with them. The best thing we can do is offer up 2-3 more people to the vote. If we do that every night, eventually we put up some wolves, and the seer can be putting together, at the least, good vote information when they reveal.

[hoopsguy]

Autumn, I'm not wild about the "churn different people out each day" as a general rule because there are reasons behind vote movements.

I can buy into it on this particular spot on the idea that the wolves wanted a tie (just not the result they got), but normally I want voting patterns from the previous day to be a big part of my analysis.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I don't really get this bhlloy. You mention EF's vote as being noticeably bad twice. Care to go over your reasoning? If you think zinto is a villager then surely EF moving his vote off of him isn't particularly bad?

Assuming the wolves are trying to set the tie up and put the two vote margin out there for Kaa to be able to use, I'm very suspicious of EF and JAG's votes. I think at that point it's a pretty safe bet that Zinto is going to vote defensively so those two votes really set up the margin that the wolves presumably wanted.

I'm floored by Mauboy wanting to vote Zinto this morning though. That makes absolutely zero sense based on yesterday. Doesn't smell like a wolf move however.

[Lathum]

I need to look through Autumns posts from yesterday, but it was his interaction with JAG yesterday that pinged me on JAG. It was almost as if he was trying to steer a scan towards JAG.

I'll have to go back and look when I have time

[mauchow]

invite zinto
vote packer fanatic

After thinking about it on my way to work this morning I think pf knew what was about to happen with the switch in votes and started announcing how hwe were going to get good info from his death hopefully.

This also isn't a change because of a few people saying the zinto vote was dumb. I had another thought with that but I like this here a lot more.

[DaddyTorgo]

Awesome result!!

Too bad we lost one of the members of my wolfpack in return (Danny).

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

What jumps out from me is Lathum's play makes no sense at all. A new candidate 50 mins before the deadline and then a (seemingly) meaningless third vote on a new candidate right at the deadline that turns out to be absolutely key?

I mean I guess he's saved by the fact that JAG turned up wolf and the fact there's no way he votes a wolf into third if he knows the plan is to tie the vote up. But it's all very strange.

As for the explanation of what happened, this is the most plausible scenario to me:
Kaa and the wolves agree on a (conditional?) tie vote if it looks like it's going to happen, and then McKerney and Lathum's votes push a wolf into third late in the day and they don't have time to react. If so that puts McKerney and Lathum on a very high level of trust and makes EF the worst looking vote for me.

Not sure why you would call the Lathum vote a key vote. It may have been but without being certain about the tie break mechanic we still don't know for certain.

Can CF clarify that the next highest vote getter goes or is this still a mystery?

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Assuming the wolves are trying to set the tie up and put the two vote margin out there for Kaa to be able to use, I'm very suspicious of EF and JAG's votes. I think at that point it's a pretty safe bet that Zinto is going to vote defensively so those two votes really set up the margin that the wolves presumably wanted.

I'm floored by Mauboy wanting to vote Zinto this morning though. That makes absolutely zero sense based on yesterday. Doesn't smell like a wolf move however.

The logic here doesn't seem quite right. If the wolves wanted a tie why not just have it be a tie instead of using the vote change mechanic? I'll have to see what time the vote changes were made that set that up to see if it is possible that the goal was to lynch Zinto and setup PF.

[EagleFan]

Where are you inviting Zinto to?

[mauchow]

unvote zinto
vote pf
Annoying word corrector phone thing.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Assuming the wolves are trying to set the tie up and put the two vote margin out there for Kaa to be able to use, I'm very suspicious of EF and JAG's votes. I think at that point it's a pretty safe bet that Zinto is going to vote defensively so those two votes really set up the margin that the wolves presumably wanted.

The thing is it didn't have to be a two-vote gap - one gap would do it for a tie as the wolves could just have moved (for example) MrBug's vote to Zinto to get a tie.

The nagging problem I have with all this is that the wolves are leaving themselves exposed if someone makes a significant move a minute before deadline. I guess that the order must have come in around 21:59 as it is. Anyway, I don't really know what to make of that feeling. So I shall ignore it.

[EagleFan]

bhlloy is pinging the hell out of me this morning though. Seems like he has blinders on and wants to make my votes look bad no matter what. Every time another arguement is presented to him he changes his reasons for why my votes must be bad.

Keep talking.... keep talking...

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

The thing is it didn't have to be a two-vote gap - one gap would do it for a tie as the wolves could just have moved (for example) MrBug's vote to Zinto to get a tie.

The nagging problem I have with all this is that the wolves are leaving themselves exposed if someone makes a significant move a minute before deadline. I guess that the order must have come in around 21:59 as it is. Anyway, I don't really know what to make of that feeling. So I shall ignore it.

Some things still don't make sense and I think that may be their goal moreso than any results.

As someone said, maybe we should leave Zinto and PF for the seer for the moment at least.

The only way a tie would make sense is if they knew the tie break mechanic and that both of the targets were wolves (and at the time Lathum hadn't made his JAG vote). But that would still not look good with the heat a move like that would put on them.

(sorry, just trying to think aloud)

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

bhlloy is pinging the hell out of me this morning though. Seems like he has blinders on and wants to make my votes look bad no matter what. Every time another arguement is presented to him he changes his reasons for why my votes must be bad.

That's not really how I interpret it - I think you need to take a step back when someone is targeting you because your natural defensiveness tend to kick in and you start seeing anyone questioning you as being wolfy. Seems that bholloy made an assertion based on his interpretation of events and then when asked to clarify, he did.

Now I might think his interpretation is wrong but I don't think his actions this morning have been particularly wolfish.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Some things still don't make sense and I think that may be their goal moreso than any results.

As someone said, maybe we should leave Zinto and PF for the seer for the moment at least.

The only way a tie would make sense is if they knew the tie break mechanic and that both of the targets were wolves (and at the time Lathum hadn't made his JAG vote). But that would still not look good with the heat a move like that would put on them.

(sorry, just trying to think aloud)

It is so hard to get that lucky that I pretty much throw that result out. But the moved vote saved PF so I certainly think it is possible they wanted to help him without realizing that the tie-breaker would fall on the cunning wolf.

If we are leaving PF/Zinto out of the mix today, and I would definitely endorse doing so on Zinto with a wolf moving a vote onto him to force the tie, then I certainly hope our seer checks out PF sooner rather than later.

[PackerFanatic]

If the wolves thought the tie mechanic would kill both Zinto and myself (of even kill one of us randomly), would they really risk it if either one of us are wolves? They took a risk by switching the vote (assuming that is what happened) to bring out the tie - but I think they did so knowing they had two villagers and hoping they could off us both.

[hoopsguy]

Yes, they would have nothing to lose in creating a tie if you were a wolf and were already set to be lynched. A random result is better than 100% losing a wolf.

This is the 2nd time you've thrown something out that is pretty self-serving (first time being the "hey, Gonzo didn't vote yet" with fifteen minutes to go and the results being very up in the air) and that has me really suspicious. Way more so than yesterday when I actually voted for you.

[PackerFanatic]

Good point. I will now stop drawing more suspicion to myself

[PackerFanatic]

The Gonzo thing was in response to EF talking about Thomkal's vote-and-leave and my bringing up a couple more people that had done that. A simple observation after looking through the votes.

[J23]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yes, they would have nothing to lose in creating a tie if you were a wolf and were already set to be lynched. A random result is better than 100% losing a wolf.

I'll go one furthur and say that it could even buy trust for the cunning if PF is a wolf and gets killed by the tie mechanic last night due to JAG's late vote switch.

With the cunning out, we can rely on the seer to take care of finding out about PF I'd imagine.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Autumn, I'm not wild about the "churn different people out each day" as a general rule because there are reasons behind vote movements.

I can buy into it on this particular spot on the idea that the wolves wanted a tie (just not the result they got), but normally I want voting patterns from the previous day to be a big part of my analysis.

I"m not suggesting random churning. But rather than just putting the lead vote getters up again, pick people based on vote movement, voters rather than vote getters. Then when we eventually find out the allegiance of those lead vote getters, we have a lot more information, and a much higher chance of having had a vote for a wolf at some point.