2014-2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Since I'm actually at a computer, not posting from a phone, wanted to hit up this too. I hate people trying to force this into the large market/small market box. Sometimes it's true - the Rays had to trade Price at some point or lose him for just a pick, the Reds had to trade at least one of their starters this winter or lose them for just a pick, the A's could never afford Jon Lester - but that doesn't apply to what Oakland is doing. They signed Billy Butler for more than Brandon Moss will make. Brett Lawrie has fewer years of control left than Josh Donaldson. Despite an aging team (or perhaps because of it), they chose to trade a top-10 prospect for a year and a half of Jeff Samardzija. They chose to effectively trade a draft pick and one extra year of Rick Porcello/Yoenis Cespedes for 2 months of Lester knowing they couldn't re-sign him (plus Johnny Gomes and his $5m contract for 2015). Billy Beane's earned enough respect I'm interested to see if his player valuations are better than the market's, but this wasn't a roster churn required because the A's couldn't afford to pay those players.

You are taking two years and conflating them. The Lester and Samardzija trades was because Beane just wanted to go for it for one year, which is very uncharacteristic of the A's in general. Of course it didn't work. So Beane looks at what is left the team and decides that this team won't lead to the success that the front office wants and therefore the team should move in a different direction, including more ground ball hitting directions and, unlike teams that can simply purchase the players and keep the older ones around on the same squad for bit, Oakland has to the cycle some out and some in. This also mandates somewhat of a youth direction as well, semi-rebuilding (Butler is 3 years younger than Moss and Lawrie is 4 years younger than Donaldson).

FWIW, if you compare their WAR, you'll find that Brandon Moss's isn't all that high, especially compared to Butler's (aside from last season). And Moss is 31, while Butler is 28 (and likely entering his prime).

The Donaldson deal is likely because Beane was thinking of rebuilding and that Donaldson's best years wouldn't be coming on teams that were competing, so better to deal him for someone younger who's prime would be more likely to overlap for when Beane is thinking the team would be in a similar position to contend again.

Here is an interview with David Forst, the Assistant GM of the A's, where he articulates this:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/qa-da...and-athletics/

The Angels were obviously 11 games better than us and the Mariners were right on our tail, and poised to get better. Just bringing back our group and just supplementing it with little pieces, wasn’t going to give us a chance to compete, and was also going to leave us further down the path of having an older, more injury-prone club, frankly.

We decided very early on that we needed to take a similar route that we did in 2011, in November in December, and work hard on increasing our depth, getting younger and getting healthier.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I don't think they can. 70 mil or so between Cueto, Votto and Bailey isn't a sustainable plan for the Reds.

I keep hearing about this "TV payday" that's supposedly coming to the Reds in a couple of years, so who knows, maybe they can.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

But look further right on your list. Kemp's defense was so horrible that it wiped out half the value of his offense. He ends up with a 1.8 WAR for the 2nd half of the year, even while offensively tearing it up. That's the same as 2nd half WAR as Gregor Blanco. Moving to a corner would help, yes. But Petco is even more cavernous than Chavez Ravine. That's not going to be pretty.

Fwiw I don't really trust those defensive numbers - half a season at a new position is like 15-20 chances, but I'm not arguing the deal's good. I just don't think his contract (at 5/77) is the albatross it appeared to be last winter or even was at 5/108, and I don't think posting Steamer's offensive projections is compelling evidence against the trade.

Overall I agree it doesn't make on-field sense for the Padres, but I also don't think Grandal's any good and the Dodgers didn't *need* to free up that money before spending elsewhere so I'm not really going to call it a great deal for the Dodgers either.

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

You are taking two years and conflating them. The Lester and Samardzija trades was because Beane just wanted to go for it for one year, which is very uncharacteristic of the A's in general. Of course it didn't work. So Beane looks at what is left the team and decides that this team won't lead to the success that the front office wants and therefore the team should move in a different direction, including more ground ball hitting directions and, unlike teams that can simply purchase the players and keep the older ones around on the same squad for bit, Oakland has to the cycle some out and some in. This also mandates somewhat of a youth direction as well, semi-rebuilding (Butler is 3 years younger than Moss and Lawrie is 4 years younger than Donaldson).

It's a rebuild, but it's just a regular rebuild. Team's been getting older for years, and the Russell trade isn't the only time recently Beane pushed his chips in recently. After a decade or so where they really were a smaller market success story built on young homegrown guys they've been mortgaging the future and going with veteran stopgaps even on the bench and in the bullpen for years now and it was bound to come crashing down. Derek Norris is a nice young catcher, but other than that they had 6 at bats by a player under 27 total (Billy Burns). That's insane. The Dodgers are the epitome of a team that could buy it's way out of mistakes and they had 7 guys under 27 play, plus stubbornly held on to their top 3 prospects. The Red Sox had 12 guys under 27 play.

I get it, they had a chance and went for it, and sometimes that doesn't work. Not judging. But that happens to all 30 teams - they've been sacrificing potential future value for present value for a few years now, steadily growing into one of the oldest teams in MLB, and now they had to pay for it. The idea that this is unique or was driven by economics is a fallacy.

[BishopMVP]

Put it this way on Matt Kemp's contract - the Red Sox just signed Hanley at 4/$88 to play corner OF and possibly take over at DH in 2-3 years, and I like the deal. If Matt Kemp at 5/$77 had been on the table I would've preferred him. So, yeah, San Diego is a weird place for him, but as long as he keeps hitting SD should have no problem trading him to an AL team and getting something back if they decide it's not working out.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Fwiw I don't really trust those defensive numbers - half a season at a new position is like 15-20 chances, but I'm not arguing the deal's good.

Half a season a new, easier to play position. Kemp's defensive numbers been bad for years. I don't think it makes much sense to solely focus on offensive numbers, which just focusing on those hitting numbers do. He has had negative defensive WAR numbers for every year of his career but one.

It's a rebuild, but it's just a regular rebuild. Team's been getting older for years, and the Russell trade isn't the only time recently Beane pushed his chips in recently. After a decade or so where they really were a smaller market success story built on young homegrown guys they've been mortgaging the future and going with veteran stopgaps even on the bench and in the bullpen for years now and it was bound to come crashing down. Derek Norris is a nice young catcher, but other than that they had 6 at bats by a player under 27 total (Billy Burns). That's insane. The Dodgers are the epitome of a team that could buy it's way out of mistakes and they had 7 guys under 27 play, plus stubbornly held on to their top 3 prospects. The Red Sox had 12 guys under 27 play.

I get it, they had a chance and went for it, and sometimes that doesn't work. Not judging. But that happens to all 30 teams - they've been sacrificing potential future value for present value for a few years now, steadily growing into one of the oldest teams in MLB, and now they had to pay for it. The idea that this is unique or was driven by economics is a fallacy.

You have read Moneyball, yes? The original Moneyball team was based on scrounging together players after the A's lost higher paid players who got out of their price range and Beane blew up the team and focused on undervalued OBP focused talent. They have gone through these different stages multiple times. This is what Beane does - he just does it a few years before it all comes down rather than after.

And, of course, its driven by economics - when you have a small payroll for one, you can't quickly and easily replace an older player with a younger player who is just as good just by purchasing him on the market. You also can't do the whole gradual shift where the older more expensive player and the younger cheaper player who is soon going to take the older guy's spot can exist in the same team and both get paid. The #2 and #3 teams in terms of average age last year were San Francisco and LA Dodgers. They don't have to make these decisions super early, because they can easily throw some money to get younger. So you have to think long term earlier or else you get caught.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

If you're gonna sign Kendrys Morales for 2/$18m, why not just re-sign Butler at 3/$30?

GM's still an idiot? You got me

SI

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

You have read Moneyball, yes? The original Moneyball team was based on scrounging together players after the A's lost higher paid players who got out of their price range and Beane blew up the team and focused on undervalued OBP focused talent. They have gone through these different stages multiple times. This is what Beane does - he just does it a few years before it all comes down rather than after.

And, of course, its driven by economics - when you have a small payroll for one, you can't quickly and easily replace an older player with a younger player who is just as good just by purchasing him on the market. You also can't do the whole gradual shift where the older more expensive player and the younger cheaper player who is soon going to take the older guy's spot can exist in the same team and both get paid. The #2 and #3 teams in terms of average age last year were San Francisco and LA Dodgers. They don't have to make these decisions super early, because they can easily throw some money to get younger. So you have to think long term earlier or else you get caught.

Yes I read Moneyball, but I also look at the team and realize that narrative was a joke. The A's had a great 6 year run which almost entirely coincided with having 5 all-stars (Tejada, Chavez, Mulder, Zito, Hudson, 3 of whom were top 10 picks) come up at the same time and playing on cheap pre-arb/arb contracts. Tejada won the MVP and Zito the Cy Young on that 2002 team while combining to make less than $4 million. The other above-average hitters were David Justice, Jermaine Dye, Ray Durham and Scott Hatteberg, the first three of whom were all all-stars within the previous 2 seasons and acquired by trade. Hatteberg was undervalued by the market, and easily outperformed his contract, but the A's already had a cheaper, better, younger first baseman on the roster (Carlos Peña), who they buried and then traded.

Billy Beane didn't blow up the 2001 team that had won 101 games. He lost 3 high-priced free agents, but two of them were a closer overvalued for his saves (and replaced by a trade for Billy Koch, who had also saved 30+ games in 3 straight seasons), and an OF who put up an 83 OPS+ in his year with the team (and replaced by the A's completely lucking into a known quality OF'er in David Justice being given away by the Yankees for dumb reasons). Admittedly Jason Giambi was a huge loss, but he wasn't replaced - the 2002 A's put up 84 fewer runs, and had 8 fewer Pythagorean wins (while still putting up a very good 96) but happened to get luckier in close games.

Beane then continued to ride that core, didn't even really try to turn it over, and had 5 straight sub .500 seasons before bouncing back again in 2012. I like the guy - he deserves a lot if credit for signing/developing those 5 all-stars, he does take some unique angles and has absolutely no qualms about trading anyone or going against industry consensus. But his track record certainly doesn't show a GM who plans long-term any better than others (in fact I'd argue the opposite, that many if his bigger successes have been 1-2 year stopgap players). And Moneyball had a great narrative, was a fun read that helped popularize team building and sabermetrics, and was great publicity for Beane himself, but doesn't really hold up under scrutiny and is misunderstood by most people.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Yes I read Moneyball, but I also look at the team and realize that narrative was a joke. The A's had a great 6 year run which almost entirely coincided with having 5 all-stars (Tejada, Chavez, Mulder, Zito, Hudson, 3 of whom were top 10 picks) come up at the same time and playing on cheap pre-arb/arb contracts.

I think that is a strange way to look at things, considering that drafting was a major part of the book. In addition, most of the narrative dealt with how to replace a player like Jason Giambi, who in 2001 had a 199 OPS+ and 9.1 WAR. Hatterburg and Justice's play helped deal with that major loss, while not increasing the payroll.

Recall, Tejada left after 2003. Mulder & Hudson left after 2004. And even after that there won 88 and 93 wins before the 5 years of mediocrity.

(Of course, FWIW, in this current run, Moss was a cheap free agent who had been released by the Phillies & Donaldson was acquired as a throw in in a trade [though in that trade he seemed to be the only one who really did anything])

[Logan]

I just got back from Curacao last week so this article was very timely for me, especially after having a great talk about baseball with the nice guy who drove us back to the airport.

Log In - The New York Times

[Chief Rum]

White Sox sign Brad Penny to a minor league contract?

I kinda feel right now like the White Sox are that team that turned on the "free agent signing" machine, but accidentally left it on too long.

[kingfc22]

Is there anybody left for the Giants to sign? Seems like they've swung and missed on everyone.

[Vince, Pt. II]

2nd place on every free agent!

[cartman]

The Angels are trying to move Josh Hamilton, but aren't finding any takers. They got a "thanks, but no thanks" from the Rangers and Padres when they contacted them.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by cartman

The Angels are trying to move Josh Hamilton, but aren't finding any takers. They got a "thanks, but no thanks" from the Rangers and Padres when they contacted them.

Not a shock. It's sad that a player with his talent can be so fragile, both physically and mentally.

[stevew]

Are the Rays selling low or high on Wil Myers?

And it's amazing to look at the player that Hamilton is and consider that he's going to be paid about 30m/season for the next 3.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Vince, Pt. II

2nd place on every free agent!

You could be the Royals and be 1st place up against a Scott Boras MYSTERY TEAM, overpaying every time. Sigh

SI

[JPhillips]

If you're a GM for a mid-salary team, how much would the Angels have to kick in to get you to take Hamilton? Would 50 million be enough?

[Vince, Pt. II]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

You could be the Royals and be 1st place up against a Scott Boras MYSTERY TEAM, overpaying every time. Sigh

SI

See: Zito, Barry

[stevew]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

If you're a GM for a mid-salary team, how much would the Angels have to kick in to get you to take Hamilton? Would 50 million be enough?

It's like 27/32/32. I think you'd need at least 20M every season on order to consider

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Is there anybody left for the Giants to sign? Seems like they've swung and missed on everyone.

Krukow said the Giants may be saving for next years free agents (odd year), which is much heavier on pitching: Zimmerman, Price, Kazmir, Cueto...

[SackAttack]

Nice pickup for the Royals in Kris Medlen. Wonder what the dollars look like.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by stevew

It's like 27/32/32. I think you'd need at least 20M every season on order to consider

What is funny is that, even with the misfiring Hamilton, the Angels had, what, the best or second best offense in the majors? They would love to move Hamilton because of how much money they're overpaying him, but I am sure if they had to keep him and cross their fingers he would at least somewhat return to productive, they would gladly deal with that.

So I am not sure there is much motivation for the Angels to offer to pay much of his contract to make him go away.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Nice pickup for the Royals in Kris Medlen. Wonder what the dollars look like.

Finally, a Royals signing I'm happy with (ok, I was fine with the Frasor resigning and some of the minor trades).

SI

[ISiddiqui]

The Matt Kemp deal has hit a snag:

Matt Kemp Might Have Arthritis | FanGraphs Baseball

The physical shows that BOTH Kemp's hips have arthritis. Yikes! It may still go through, but SD can ask for more for it to happen.

[Chief Rum]

I think in the end, this will help Kemp. He will have pain in both hips, so he won't favor one over the other.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by stevew

Are the Rays selling low or high on Wil Myers?

And it's amazing to look at the player that Hamilton is and consider that he's going to be paid about 30m/season for the next 3.

Either low or just right depending on what you think of Souza? It's a weird, fun deal in that all the players involved (even those going to Washington) have a lot of projection left. Either way it is clear that GMDM got that one right - Myers will recover some power as his wrist heals, but that's basically a full lost season during the cheap pre-arb years that made Myers so potentially valuable to the Rays/Royals.

[sterlingice]

I absolutely loved last season and it's a success, I think from the Royals perspective solely because of a hot run in the playoffs. However, the other side of that trade is still yet to be written

SI

[stevew]

Volquez 2/20 seems really rich considerconsidering all of his advanced stats show him as worse than his average career last season. k's and and babip way down. FIP higher than ERA by a run.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by stevew

Volquez 2/20 seems really rich considerconsidering all of his advanced stats show him as worse than his average career last season. k's and and babip way down. FIP higher than ERA by a run.

Rios and Morales seem like overpays, too. But there's not really any cheap talent on the market this year. I can only name a couple of deals for, say, more than $3M that I like. Lowrie is good, Hammel is ok. There are some fliers that are decent but only if you have the depth to absorb getting 0 useful IP from them: Anderson and Morrow come to mind. But the bargains don't happen until later in the winter and I'm not sure how many will be out there this year.

There are ways these could work out: Morales and Rios could look like 2013 Morales and Rios and they would get 4.5 WAR- not a bad year's work. Or like 2012 them and get 5.9, which sounds great. But guys who are 33 and 31 don't usually turn back the clock like they used to. Volquez had a really low BABIP last year and there's some theories out there that he's figured out how to induce weak contact and that's why his ERA was so low. Then there are also people who figure he was just lucky and even the Royals defense won't be able to save that.

SI

[claphamsa]

apparently the padres need neither prospects a SS or a CF....

[Lathum]

ESPN reporting PAdres aquire Justin Upton

[kingfc22]

What's gotten into the Padres all of a sudden?

[miked]

With no good batters in AAA, it would seem the highlight of the Braves offense will Freddie Freeman hitting bases-empty singles and doubles from the cleanup spot. I would imagine they are going to tank it pretty good this year, fire Gonzalez, and start new with some big splashes for the new stadium in a year. Seems like a great strategy, for an NBA team.

[Scarecrow]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

What's gotten into the Padres all of a sudden?

My guess would be some MalcPow shit...

[stevew]

Looks like the pirates will wear their sunglasses at night.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

apparently the padres need neither prospects a SS or a CF....

Wil Myers in CF? Maybe trade him to Texas for Profar?

You guys are missing the craziest part of these Padres deals... the Red Sox actually got something for Will Middlebrooks! Granted it's a backup catcher, but I'll take Hanigan over Ross, especially in the off chance Vazquez gets injured before Swihart is ready - Ross just wouldn't be capable of playing every day even for 2 weeks.

[stevew]

Kinda like the Prado trade for the Yanks. I'm not sure whether Refsnyder or Pirela will be the man at 2B but I feel like one of those bats will certainly play. Eovaldi is Solid. I'd lean Pirela at 2b, he has a nice swing and sneaky pop.

[stevew]

Pirates won the bidding for some Korean SS named Jeong-Ho Kang who hit 40 homers in the Korean league and posted a video game type OPS. He very well could suck, or it could be a great usage of a 5m dollar posting fee.

[Logan]

I was following Kang since it seemed like the Mets were interested at one point. What I remember was that in the league he played in, the average OPS was similarly insane and scouts were split on if he was decent enough defensively to play SS at the ML level.

[JPhillips]

Reds get Marlon Byrd for LF.

They now have three of the top eleven NL HR hitters from last year and that doesn't include Bruce or Votto. Now if only anybody could get on base...

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Reds get Marlon Byrd for LF.

They now have three of the top eleven NL HR hitters from last year and that doesn't include Bruce or Votto. Now if only anybody could get on base...

Getting on base is sooo overrated.

(It's Cincy, right?)

[rowech]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Reds get Marlon Byrd for LF.

They now have three of the top eleven NL HR hitters from last year and that doesn't include Bruce or Votto. Now if only anybody could get on base...

This isn't going to fix the issue. This will be Ludwick all over again.

[stevew]

Stephen Drew, you just hit .150150something. Do you expect to get a Spring Training invite? Nah, I want 5M. Ok, sounds good.

[Chief Rum]

Since we have Braves fans here, looking for feedback.

My Angels traded for third base prospect Kyle Kubitsa (sp?) late last week, and it is being viewed as likely that means they will let Freese walk next year and that they are concerned about the slow down in development of their earlier "third baseman of the future" Kaleb Cowart.

Third base has been a long issue position for the Angels. They haven't had a really good one since Glaus in his prime.

So I am just curious of your opinions on Kubitsa and his future as a major leaguer. The kid we sent you is supposed to be a pretty decent pitching prospect.

[ISiddiqui]

Damn Billy Beane! Zobrist and Escobar are very fine pickups for the A's. The team is going to be looking vastly different next season, but it seems they may be just as good.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Extra season for Yost.

Ned Yost of Kansas City Royals has extension through 2016 season - ESPN

[JonInMiddleGA]

espn says Gattis to Houston for three "prospects"

Paper bag time in Atlanta draws closer & closer

[Easy Mac]

I'm just glad I can now cancel my cable without feeling like I'm missing out on anything.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

I'm just glad I can now cancel my cable without feeling like I'm missing out on anything.

Yeah, should be easy enough to keep track of their record-breaking futility attempt online.

[stevew]

Hey, you still have Melvin Emanuel to cheer for