Werewolf XCVIII - 24 Day Game Over - Post 2899

[nfg22]

Vote Path12

[Danny]

So the PM count resets at 9pm central right? I don't suppose we get to stockpile unused PM's?

[DaddyTorgo]

Path has dibs on her

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Danny

So the PM count resets at 9pm central right? I don't suppose we get to stockpile unused PM's?

no no - it's 4 PM's within 24 hours

[path12]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Vote Path12

I LOL'd.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

no no - it's 4 PM's within 24 hours

This is correct. With-in any given 24 hour period you may have 4 PMs.

[DaddyTorgo]

lol oh i get it. the vote wasn't necessarily serious...it was cuz path dissed on your girl hmm?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Wow, I must be ready for bed. I couldnt' understand any of that Danny. I'll try again in the morning.

Though I hate sleeping in this game because I know anything could happen while I'm gone. I need the staying power of Jack Bauer.

Just pointing out that we make no promises of coverage at any time, but especially between 2-6 AM Central. So if you want to sleep you've got a good 4 hours right there

[Danny]

Oh ok, so if I send my first PM at 6am and then three more after that, I would be able to send a PM again on 6am the following day.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

Oh ok, so if I send my first PM at 6am and then three more after that, I would be able to send a PM again on 6am the following day.

Correct.

[nfg22]

Yessir...unless your name is Path and you die.

[Poli]

Beep, beep, beep...

[kingfc22]

I've always been in favor of the lynch rather than no-lynch policy as a villager. The more information we have to analyze as the game goes on will give us the edge to out the wolves.

See you in the morning.

[Chief Rum]

I had this plan to read up on all this and have all this stuff to say, but frankly, no dice. Confused is not the word I would choose for my state of mind, but it's not far off. I understand what's going on, as much as anyone, but we're simply in a position where we don't have enough information to properly judge just WTH is going on. We might need to let some of our private role actions run their course to better determine what we will do.

So until then, I think I will not be doing the post circus tonight, but instead hope for some more action to guide us tomorrow. I will try to find time to check in from work. Should be before the full 24 hour deadline (yes, I realize we may not reach it, but I'm not ready to throw out the "just in case" Day One vote in a game like this).

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Danny

I know there's been some talk on two points so far.

1. Whether or not the wolves get a kill every X amount of hours or if a lynch is needed.

2. Whether after 24 hours, a lower and lower percentage of votes is needed to lynch or it stays at 40%

The answer to these questions can't be the wolves get a kill after lynched and the votes needed stays at 40%.

The answer could very well be the wolves get a kill every 24 hours and 2. could be either way.

The answer could be that the wolves get a kill for every lynch and the percentage of votes needed keeps getting smaller after 24 hours.

I'm just quoting your post because you already had things nicely laid out. One thing I want to point out about 2. is a third possibility, that if we miss the 24 hour window for getting at least 40% of the votes on someone that there is no lynch, the wolves get to make their night kill, and votes get reset. The rules are ambiguous on that point:

For a lynch to occur the leading vote getter must have a certain % of the total player votes. The farther away from the last lynch it has been the lower the percentage that is required. It is unknown what % is needed at what time except that between 23 hours and 23 hours 59 minutes 59 seconds since the last lynch 40% of votes must be on the leading candidate in order for a lynch to occur. As soon as the required % is reached lynching will occur instantly, rendering invalid any votes cast after that one.

My guess regarding 1. is that their kills are going to be tied to our lynches, otherwise our best strategy would be to lynch as quickly as we could at all times to keep them at a disadvantage (to say it more simply, we'd get more lynches than they'd get night kills). I don't think this is the case personally.

I guess the question is, do we want to try to work the votes in some way to find out more information regarding the lynch / night kill system? The possibilities (and disadvantages) it seems to me are:

1. Pile on a lot of votes on someone to see what % is needed at an earlier time and to confirm that night kills are tied to lynches. Downsides for this one, less useful voting history, useful villager powers that are used every x hours will take longer to reset.

2. Have fewer than 40% of the votes on people at 24 hours to see what % is needed to lynch past that time and see if night kills are tied to lynches or time. Downsides are there may be no lynch if we can't get as much as 40% of the votes on someone by 24 hrs.

3. Because of 2's possibility of no-lynch, we ensure we have at least 40% of the votes on someone between 23-24 hrs. Downside is we don't learn as much about the system, but otherwise less overall risk than 1. and 2.

I'd like to see some people's thoughts on which way they think we should go. My vote will almost assuredly go to someone who is not contributing much.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by path12

Y'know, I think it's a damned if you do damned if you don't thing.

If we come up with a couple possibles (no shows, etc), I don't really have a problem with getting some early information via a lynch.

What I sometimes find more destructive to the villagers chances in WW is the nitpicky small thing that blows up into a showdown that overshadows everything else until all of the people involved are outed or lynched.

That's a great observation.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

And now, to actually comment on the game.. I'm interested to see how the lynching plays out. Are we going to move towards our first lynch candidates being low-posters or have game events or character abilities interject? I feel like it won't be too far into this game before something weird/unexpected happens.

I don't disagree with your last sentence, but until we have something to work with, we just have to go with what makes the most sense. At this point we don't have any information regarding character abilities or if game events will occur. Personally early on I favor voting for low posters. If they are villagers, they aren't contributing a lot to working out what our strategy should be. I'd rather lynch someone for that than for a typo like what happened to Autumn last game.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by JAG

I guess the question is, do we want to try to work the votes in some way to find out more information regarding the lynch / night kill system? The possibilities (and disadvantages) it seems to me are:

We absolutely do NOT try to vote with the purpose of manipulating the vote count just to figure out what type of math is involved underneath the engine here. The biggest weapon that the villagers have is the vote track record. It is the reason why many people argue that you should always lynch in debates in some games. So if you are going to have a lynch, it needs to be done in a way to provide information for later days.

Chances are that whatever happens with the vote, we will still get information regarding 1) The math behind it and 2) How the wolf kill ties into it.

For either of those, it will likely take 2-3 lynch votes before we can narrow things down specifically, but if all three days a wolf kill occurs in the near timing to the lynch vote that should be a pretty good clue for us. As for the math, we should be able to start working out some of that regardless of when it occurs.

So the value added by forcing an early vote to determine early day vote percentages is very small compared to the value that is added later in the game when looking at who voted where and why.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Alan T

We absolutely do NOT try to vote with the purpose of manipulating the vote count just to figure out what type of math is involved underneath the engine here. The biggest weapon that the villagers have is the vote track record. It is the reason why many people argue that you should always lynch in debates in some games. So if you are going to have a lynch, it needs to be done in a way to provide information for later days.

Chances are that whatever happens with the vote, we will still get information regarding 1) The math behind it and 2) How the wolf kill ties into it.

For either of those, it will likely take 2-3 lynch votes before we can narrow things down specifically, but if all three days a wolf kill occurs in the near timing to the lynch vote that should be a pretty good clue for us. As for the math, we should be able to start working out some of that regardless of when it occurs.

So the value added by forcing an early vote to determine early day vote percentages is very small compared to the value that is added later in the game when looking at who voted where and why.

I agree Alan. And if we are assuming the wolves need a lynch before they get a night kill, then we probably want to delay that lynch as much as possible. That gives us more time to use any special actions our characters might have and for any info generated by them to come out.

[OOC: It's my day to have a migraine it seems, so not sure how much I will be able to post today, sorry about that.]

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Alan T

We absolutely do NOT try to vote with the purpose of manipulating the vote count just to figure out what type of math is involved underneath the engine here. The biggest weapon that the villagers have is the vote track record. It is the reason why many people argue that you should always lynch in debates in some games. So if you are going to have a lynch, it needs to be done in a way to provide information for later days.

Chances are that whatever happens with the vote, we will still get information regarding 1) The math behind it and 2) How the wolf kill ties into it.

For either of those, it will likely take 2-3 lynch votes before we can narrow things down specifically, but if all three days a wolf kill occurs in the near timing to the lynch vote that should be a pretty good clue for us. As for the math, we should be able to start working out some of that regardless of when it occurs.

So the value added by forcing an early vote to determine early day vote percentages is very small compared to the value that is added later in the game when looking at who voted where and why.

Ok, that makes sense.

[Poli]

Beep, beep, beep...

[BrianD]

So at this point, we have two votes, right? One for EagleFan and one for Path12? We will never have a reason to lynch the poor, unfortunate day-1 soul. Let's get some votes going and create that vote history.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Don't worry, it will give me time to prepare my vote. Unless you want to talk about a new sig?

New sig, are you crazy?!? Did you not see what all happened since I adopted this!


We'll talk.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

(and to possibly piss off PB):

As good a reason for a day 1 vote as any! Well, that and I'm bitter at missing Labyrinth (my fault, not his but I'll still blame him).

vote The Jackal

[PurdueBrad]

Out again for a while, will be back on around 3 pm CST and for the rest of the night.

[Passacaglia]

Might as well make my voice heard...

VOTE BRIAND

[PurdueBrad]

As far as the role reveal discussion, I'm kind of in Schmidty's (I think it was him) shoes, I think I'm fairly irrelevant right now so it doesn't hurt me but I don't really see the benefit when the wolves likely know the extra roles.

[JAG]

Vote ntndeacon

[KWhit]

I'm around, but not sure what direction to go today. When that happens, I try to analyze the game from a rules perspective.

So I've been trying to figure out the purpose of night 0 to see if it could lead to any clues about gameplay.

One possibility that I have seen used in other games was a 'recruitment' period where the leader of the wolves was able to pick out the players to join his side to fill out the wolf team. The problem with this in this game is that I am sure balance is difficult enough already and Hoops and BK would want to control what roles are on what side. Since all roles went out prior to night 0, I think this possibility is highly unlikely.

Other reasons to have a night 0 (and a long one at that) is just to allow pre-game actions or communications between players. I didn't have any action or PM ability during night 0, so I'm just making assumptions, but that is the only thing that makes sense.

So maybe it is a combination of the two. Maybe the Conspiracy team does have a conversion capability, and it began during night 0. This does fall in line with the TV show, I believe as some of the good guys were "turned" to the bad side during the run of the show.

Thoughts?

[EagleFan]

Only one reason for this vote...

vote PB

[DaddyTorgo]

there's no benefit to a role reveal. there might be benefit to the 2 people that are both on the block PM-ing somebody in the CoT with their roles so that that person can do a private analysis of which set of powers is worse to lose though. that way they don't have to publicly reveal.

[BrianD]

In the show, plenty of people who were in positions of good turned out to be bad. In addition, lots of good people were blackmailed into doing bad things...including Jack. I don't think a turning would be at all out of the question. I also wouldn't see a conditional turning being out of the question. "Player X gets night-killed unless a vote-leading wolf gets free". "Your minor victory condition goes away unless something happens".

[Tyrith]

I very seriously doubt thatthe wolves kill power is tied to us voting. I would much rather suspect it's tied to a straight timer -- every 24 hours, starting 12 hours into the game?

[saldana]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

As far as the role reveal discussion, I'm kind of in Schmidty's (I think it was him) shoes, I think I'm fairly irrelevant right now so it doesn't hurt me but I don't really see the benefit when the wolves likely know the extra roles.

they dont know all the extra roles, only a couple.

either way, i still say that a mass reveal is useless to the village...if the roles are vaguely connected to the character, we could possibly give the conspiritor the ability to narrow down their choices on some of our critical roles.

[DaddyTorgo]

Hi AlanT *waves*

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Alan T

We absolutely do NOT try to vote with the purpose of manipulating the vote count just to figure out what type of math is involved underneath the engine here. The biggest weapon that the villagers have is the vote track record. It is the reason why many people argue that you should always lynch in debates in some games. So if you are going to have a lynch, it needs to be done in a way to provide information for later days.

I definitely agree with this. If we mess around with voting to try to figure out mechanics we lose the usefulness of the vote record which is our number one weapon against the wolves.

[hoopsguy]

The hunt for the Conspiracy is on, but one of your members seems to have dropped off the grid. EagleFan seems to have vanished!

[Tyrith]

My point exactly.

[saldana]

i am going to go ahead and vote...since i called him out in my last game and was right, might as well go with the anger at getting lynched instead of him vote

vote the jackal

[Telle]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

The hunt for the Conspiracy is on, but one of your members seems to have dropped off the grid. EagleFan seems to have vanished!

I assume that this is purposely ambiguous as to whether or not he's gone for good?

[saldana]

WTF just happened...in the time it took me to post/refresh, EF is vanished...the wolves either had a day kill mechanic, or their clock is running from a different point in time.

[DaddyTorgo]

FWIW all - EF dissapearing doesn't surprise me and I believe he is not gone for good. I don't think it's a positive or a negative, but it's not a surprise.

[Tyrith]

Yeah, that does seem intentionally vague. But this game isn't predicated on waiting around for us to lynch someone.

The vote is kinda random - don't want to put a third vote on Jackal because I'm in favor of starting races whenever possible, Brian hasn't played for a while, I always vote for ntn.

VOTE PATH12

[JAG]

This could be like that power from Abe's game where a wolf had the ability to 'fake arrest' a player to remove them for a period of time. On page 1 it lists him as vanished and not killed, so I don't think he's killed.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I'm around, but not sure what direction to go today. When that happens, I try to analyze the game from a rules perspective.

So I've been trying to figure out the purpose of night 0 to see if it could lead to any clues about gameplay.

One possibility that I have seen used in other games was a 'recruitment' period where the leader of the wolves was able to pick out the players to join his side to fill out the wolf team. The problem with this in this game is that I am sure balance is difficult enough already and Hoops and BK would want to control what roles are on what side. Since all roles went out prior to night 0, I think this possibility is highly unlikely.

Other reasons to have a night 0 (and a long one at that) is just to allow pre-game actions or communications between players. I didn't have any action or PM ability during night 0, so I'm just making assumptions, but that is the only thing that makes sense.

So maybe it is a combination of the two. Maybe the Conspiracy team does have a conversion capability, and it began during night 0. This does fall in line with the TV show, I believe as some of the good guys were "turned" to the bad side during the run of the show.

Thoughts?

I don't necessarily feel that I am giving too much information away by saying this, but I did have a night 0 action. I had to submit something to Hoops/BK before the game started as well. Based on my instructions, it felt to me that Night0 was a pre-planning period for particular roles that had to submit names or preferences of certain abilities. My role is not one that has any extra PM ability, so I don't know if anyone else might have had PM powers on night 0.. but my guess is with everyone in the game having limited PM rights, I don't expect too many roles built around some form of PM "power". The only thing I could think of would be either the ability to "eavesdrop" PMs from others, or someone who might have an extra number of PMs that they are allowed to do in a time period.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Hi AlanT *waves*

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by JAG

This could be like that power from Abe's game where a wolf had the ability to 'fake arrest' a player to remove them for a period of time. On page 1 it lists him as vanished and not killed, so I don't think he's killed.

It doesn't necessarily have to be a wolf power either. It could be a mechanism someone has to interrogate a player, or a good guy with the ability to lock up someone and prevent them from using their action for a day perhaps even.

Without more information, bad idea to jump to conclusions.

[DaddyTorgo]

I'm wondering who everyone is PMing, because my inbox is certainly not full.

[BrianD]

I'm guessing my vote for EF just became useless. I'd theorize that he went underground to avoid a lynch, but one vote shouldn't be enough to scare anyone away. He may very well have been captured by the conspiracy.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I'm wondering who everyone is PMing, because my inbox is certainly not full.

Not me. I haven't received a single PM from anyone this game other than Barkeep and Hoopsguy who both love me.



Anyways, with that I'm out for a 10:30 meeting. Will check in when I can this afternoon!