POL: Midterm Results Thread

[SirFozzie]

ABC Declares Tester in MT.

50-49, and VA settles it all. CNN has yet to call it though

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

yeah, I wouldn't be surrpised to get that trotted out in the next few days, Jon.

{shrug} It's probably one of those things that's kind of interesting trivia but doesn't really mean a whole lot (since it doesn't really change anything either way).

If it weren't so late & I weren't so zapped, I'd probably try to figure out how many times since WWII this have even come into play (a 2nd midterm election) Off the top of my tired head it kinda strikes me like a guy going 2-for-4 in the post-season and calling him a .500 hitter. It's technically accurate but the sample size is too small to be meaningful.

But hey ... it is that late & I am that zapped, so I'll leave it for fresher minds

[Young Drachma]

Carbon County hasn't officially reported their results either. With the only preliminary results we have, Trauner is down by about 650 votes...and based on voting levels I've seen and the numbers from 2004, it's unlikely that he'll be able to make up the margin. Hell of a race, though...and it better signal the end of Barbara Cubin's career after this term.

With those, here's what the SoS is reporting unofficially:

TRAUNER (D): 89,451
CUBIN (R): 90,556
RANKIN (L): 7,135

Rankin didn't really play spoiler, though he did do better than the Libertarian in '04, that's mostly dissatisfaction with Cubin and the fact that people didn't want to hold their nose and vote for Trauner. Don't blame them, since he spent a lot of time talking about what he wasn't and even if he did spend more time on his "agenda" the fact is, all things being equal..he realistically had no business competing in this district at all.

The guy in 2004 ran on fumes (300k) and dented her pretty good...so this one gave anyone wanting to run against her the formula.

Have money ($1 million was the Dem record in this state, raised by Trauner), stay grassroots and don't go negative.

It also helps immensely to run in a non-Presidential year. Though in this climate, who knows whether that would've hurt or helped him.

Waiting to see the final number from Carbon Co., but it might be morning before we know for sure.

[mckerney]

"Pawlenty wins second term as governor"

[JonInMiddleGA]

Picked up this joke from a Macon Telegraph columnist, figured this was as good a place as any to drop it in.

A U.S. Congressman was crossing the street when he was run over by a bus. He arrived in heaven and was met by St. Peter.

"Welcome to heaven," said St. Peter. "Sorry, but we don't get too many elected officials around here, so we’re not quite sure how to act and what to do with you. We would like to go ahead and let you in, but I have orders from the Big Man to require you to spend one day in heaven and one day in hell. That way, you can decide where you want to spend eternity.’’

The politician pleaded to stay in heaven, but St. Peter would not back down.

“Sorry,’’ he said. “Rules are rules.’’

So St. Peter took the congressman to the elevator and pushed the button to the basement. When the doors of hell opened, the congressman was surprised to find himself at a plush golf course with beautiful fairways and breathtaking views.

He also saw some of his old buddies from Washington. They all rushed to greet him, slapped him on the back and remembered the good old days out on the campaign trail. After a round of golf, they all gathered at the clubhouse for steak, lobster and champagne. He also met the devil, who was friendly and a good dancer.

When it was time to go, the politician returned to heaven, where he was reunited with St. Peter for his tour of heaven. It was also a glorious place, with lots of joy and singing.

“It’s time to choose your eternity,’’ St. Peter said. “Which is it? Heaven or hell?”

“Heaven was great,’’ said the congressman. “It’s the most beautiful place I’ve ever seen. And the singing was glorious. But I was really surprised at how delightful it was in hell. That golf course was terrific. All my fellow politicians are there. I know I could be happy in hell.’’

St. Peter nodded, pushed the buttons on the elevator and took him back to hell. When the doors opened, there was no golf course to be found and no fancy meal in the dining room. The land was barren, and there was trash everywhere. His friends were on the back of a garbage truck, picking up the mounds of trash piled high on the side of the road.

The devil came over with the welcome wagon.

“What happened?” said the congressman. “Yesterday was one of the most delightful days of my life. Everything was perfect. We played golf, ate and drank and danced.''

The devil smiled.

“Yesterday we were campaigning,’’ he said. “Today you voted.’’

[MrBigglesworth]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

One of those quirky little tidbits that you pick up along the night (sorry if this has been mentioned already)

History worked against the GOP, too. Since World War II, the party in control of the White House has lost an average 31 House seats and six Senate seats in the second midterm election of a president's tenure in office.

That is, while true, GOP spin because if you look at the trend:

1958: 49 seats
1966: 47 seats
1974: 49 seats
1986: 5 seats
1998: 5 seats

...it's obvious that the gerrymandering, money imbalances, etc, that has occurred since the mid-seventies has made it a lot more difficult to kick out incumbents. A swing of thirty seats thirty years ago wouldn't have been such a big deal. But today it is.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by MrBigglesworth

That is, while true, GOP spin because if you look at the trend:

Don't blame me, I got it from an AP story, and it was actually the first time I recall hearing it before.

In other words, I ain't got no spin on it, I just thought it was a mildly interesting bit of trivia.

[timmynausea]

Originally Posted by MrBigglesworth

1958: 49 seats
1966: 47 seats
1974: 49 seats
1986: 5 seats
1998: 5 seats

I had heard that stat earlier on the local news and figured it was somewhat misleading, but that is even more extreme than I thought.

[SirFozzie]

Montana's counting has been suspended due to a recount in Yellowstone County.

It'll be late tommorrow before it gets out, but right now, I would think that it will go 51-49

[Vinatieri for Prez]

I don't think it's suspended. I believe they're still counting in the remaining counties, and already starting a recount in one particular county. I think they're expecting to be completed in short order (i.e. a recount in a MT county does not take long).

[14ers]

Need a little help from an expert.

CNN shows:
Republicans: 49
Democrats: 49
\-------------------------
Undecided 2


MSNBC reports
Republicans: 49
Democrats: 47
Independents: 2
\-------------------------
Undecided 2


Why is there a difference in these 2 stations?

[Vinatieri for Prez]

They're counting Lieberman as a Democrat on CNN, since he will caucus with the Democrats.

MSNBC is more accurate, but CNN is more realistic in how things will operate in the Senate when it comes to voting.

[14ers]

LOL.... And, Fox News just reported.

Republicans: 51
Democrats: 48
Independents: 1


I had to unblock my Fox news channel to get that one.

[Solecismic]

So Fox is counting Montana and Virginia as Republican until the races are called. How quaint.

Montana is bizarre. They just updated Great Falls with a huge boost to Burns. And there are some discrepancies elsewhere that may mean this race is only 600 votes apart.

However, the results from Butte (Silver Bow county) look wrong. And that would be about 3,000 more votes for Tester.

I still think this one is all but over, but the Burns people are at least waking up with some slim, remote hope.

[Flasch186]

JimG:

didnt you say you were moving to Finland or something if this occurred

[albionmoonlight]

In terms of local races that may be of any interest to the rest of y'all:

Mike Nifong (the "Duke Rape Case" DA) won re-election.

He had won the Democratic primary previously, which normally means that he would win the election uncontested. But, for obvious reasons, some thought that he might be vulnerable and a couple of independents ran against him (or maybe it was an independent and a Republican). Anyway, Nifong won with 49% of the vote and apparently there are no run-offs for the spot.

[ice4277]

I'm not surprised by the way the races went in Michigan. Like Schmidty, I have no love for Granholm. However, the Republican, DeVos, offered little. This wasn't even a choice of the lesser of two evils, both are pathetic. The one result that is surprising was Proposal 2, which as Router mentioned earlier outlaws affirmative action at public universities and government agencies. I thought it would pass, but was surprised that it carred a 17-point advantage. Also, it was nice to see that Proposal 5 got rejected. People are finally starting to learn that continuing to dump money into Michigan school systems (especially Detroit) benefits nobody but the unions and administrators.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by 14ers

LOL.... And, Fox News just reported.

Republicans: 51
Democrats: 48
Independents: 1


I had to unblock my Fox news channel to get that one.

Heh... like Jim said, how quaint that Fox is counting the 'too close to call' races as Republican won.. ah, fair and unbalanced indeed .

[Bee]

Maybe they think Webb is a Republican? Not like they haven't made similar "mistakes" in the past...

[amdaily]

Originally Posted by Bearcat729

Anybody have an idea on how long until the new laws in Ohio go into effect? The no smoking law and the Minimum wage hike should both affect my job.

Dunno, but given the fact that the minimum wage rises yearly based on the resulting inflation from the previous years wage incraease, I'll probably be affected soon. Fucking Ohio voters

[st.cronin]

Madrid v. Wilson is looking absolutely epic. Listening to a bi-partisan radio panel late last night, there were some VERY shady voting totals being reported, where counties were being said by various people to have been "fullly reported" and then another thousand votes or so showing up.

[Butter]

Anybody give more information about Arizona Proposition 200? The "voter lottery" bill? Who's crazy idea was that?

[Warhammer]

Originally Posted by Bee

Maybe they think Webb is a Republican? Not like they haven't made similar "mistakes" in the past...

Webb was a republican. He served in the Reagan administration as a member of the White House staff. I can't remember what made him switch parties, but it will be interesting to see how he votes.

I think that in the long run this will help the country. First, most of the dems that won some of the seats are conservative democrats, basically the next generation of Reagan democrats, which means that the democrat representation in Congress is going to be more conservative and move back towards the center. I also hope that the results give the republicans a good kick in the ass and they move back to their core principles, not those of the DeLay wing of the party.

[Coffee Warlord]

Should be thoroughly entertaining to see Congress vs Bush come January.

[Butter]

Keep us updated on Wyoming, Dark Cloud. 822 votes separating the candidates, with more votes to be counted from Carbon County.

[JPhillips]

And now the fight for control of the GOP agenda begins, bipartisan or further right.

White House allies suggest there is little reason to think Bush and the Democrats will work together. Bush has tied himself closely to conservative movement leaders who bitterly disagree with Democrats for their opposition to tax cuts and to privatizing Social Security — two of the administration's top goals.

"When we want to go up and they want to go down, we want to go right and they want to go left, there's no compromise," said anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, a close advisor to the White House.

Norquist said the Republicans' primary goal for the next two years should be making the case for GOP control — not bipartisanship.

[AZSpeechCoach]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Anybody give more information about Arizona Proposition 200? The "voter lottery" bill? Who's crazy idea was that?

Some activist in Tucson decided that to increase voter participation, have a lottery where one voter would receive a $1,000,000 jackpot. The idea was that voters are motivated by money, and would vote if they got the chance of cash out of it. It got on the ballot, but failed miserably.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by AZSpeechCoach

Some activist in Tucson decided that to increase voter participation, have a lottery where one voter would receive a $1,000,000 jackpot. The idea was that voters are motivated by money, and would vote if they got the chance of cash out of it. It got on the ballot, but failed miserably.

To be fair, it didn't fail THAT miserably. But I didn't know if it was some kind of partisan ploy by Dems, perhaps, to get voters to the polls for this election. That's one of the weirdest state issues I've ever heard, though. Actually, it's definitely the weirdest. Maybe I'm forgetting a weirder one somewhere else though.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Oh man. Limbaugh's got be apoplectic, McCaskill just publicly credited Rush's overreaction to the Missouri Michael J Fox ad (and the surge in votes on the Stem Cell bill) for the reason she won.

I think this result will ultimately be good for the country given we can get back to a real debate on issues. Instead of one side hording all the power with little debate and the other complaining about how they have no power and therefore no need for ideas, we can have two ideas on things like tax relief, Iraq, health care and others with both sides knowing they will need to persuade atleast some on the other isle. So, it should be a very interesting two years leading up to 08.

All that said, Rush has to be the happiest person in America. Nothing drives more people to conservative talk radio/blogs like a big win for the democrats.

[Flasch186]

one thing I agree with the GOP about is that this gives them an opportunity to get back to their stated roots of less spending, less religious fire, more accountability, etc. all admittedly forgotten over the past 6 years, even by Ken Mellman (sp?)

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think this result will ultimately be good for the country given we can get back to a real debate on issues. Instead of one side hording all the power with little debate and the other complaining about how they have no power and therefore no need for ideas, we can have two ideas on things like tax relief, Iraq, health care and others with both sides knowing they will need to persuade atleast some on the other isle. So, it should be a very interesting two years leading up to 08

Thumbs Up.

Also, I would add that it is nice, regardless of the parties, to have Congress and the White House under control of different parties. Our system works best when the two political branches have an incentive to check and balance each other.

[Butter]

What's up with Meagher County, Montana? Still showing as 0% reporting, the only county in Montana with votes left to count apparently.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

What's up with Meagher County, Montana? Still showing as 0% reporting, the only county in Montana with votes left to count apparently.

Perhaps the 4 people that live there are on vacation?

[Fighter of Foo]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Thumbs Up.

Also, I would add that it is nice, regardless of the parties, to have Congress and the White House under control of different parties. Our system works best when the two political branches have an incentive to check and balance each other.

Here's one example of what happens when they don't:

http://www.cagw.org/site/PageServer?...rkbarrelreport

[Butter]

Shockingly, the Montana Sec. of State website is slow.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Thumbs Up.

Also, I would add that it is nice, regardless of the parties, to have Congress and the White House under control of different parties. Our system works best when the two political branches have an incentive to check and balance each other.

I agree here. While the last two years under Bush got a little better, the first 4 (2000-2004) involved spending on pork like drunken sailors. It will be nice to see conservatives in power (hopefully) take this election as not only a statement that the people want to see a path to win the war in Iraq, but also that they are tired of the wasteful spending in the house over recent years. I also like that many conservative democrats that are concerned about spending ended up winning against some republicans that were spending like crazy.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by Bee

Perhaps the 4 people that live there are on vacation?

Classic. Maybe I'm missing something. But given CNN and others are reporting around an 800 vote lead with 100% reporting, do people really think these final few votes (can't be more than a few K) will go something like 80-20 to give the republican the win? Seems like a big stretch at this point.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Keep us updated on Wyoming, Dark Cloud. 822 votes separating the candidates, with more votes to be counted from Carbon County.

As I figured after I went to bed last night, there was no way he could get the margin he needed out of Carbon County to win. Here are the unofficial results from the secretary of state.

CUBIN: 93,197
TRAUNER: 92,227
RANKIN: 7,465

Cubin went to bed last night saying she'd won, but...what's funny is, the largest paper in the state -- and TV stations -- all said she was nowhere to be found. That doesn't surprise me for more reasons than I want to admit.

Here were the results in Carbon County.

TRAUNER: 2,776
CUBIN: 2,641
RANKIN: 330

Folks are trying to say that the absentee ballots went heavily in Cubin's favor and that seems to be the case. What is not clear, however, is how Trauner lost votes in Natrona and Sheridan counties after 100% of the districts had been reported and it was a substantial number. Especially given that Natrona county is where Cubin hails, I have no doubt that she knows people who know who..well, you get my idea.

That said, Wyoming won't stomach a recount or a long drawn out debate to decide who won. Cubin will declare victory and while I'd demand perhaps another recount quietly, Trauner will not have very long to concede before being seen as everything she vilified him as.

Sooo..it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Arles

Classic. Maybe I'm missing something. But given CNN and others are reporting around an 800 vote lead with 100% reporting, do people really think these final few votes (can't be more than a few K) will go something like 80-20 to give the republican the win? Seems like a big stretch at this point.

Actually, it's a 3,128 vote lead. I'm just curious as to how a whole county hasn't reported yet. Maybe 5,000 Burns votes show up there late. That's all I'm curious about. I don't know anything about Montana, and don't know if there are cities there or if it's mostly wilderness or what.

But you're right, it does seem like a big stretch that the GOP will hold the Senate. Good times!

[Young Drachma]

On some level, he didn't really distinguish himself as a candidate and was helped immensely by the national media starting to notice how bad Barbara Cubin was and the local media picking up on that.

I mean, it wasn't nine weeks ago that people were saying that no one had any idea who this guy was and that name recognition outside of his home part of the state (Teton County...the part of the state that the "natives" hate the most) and was buoyed largely by her gaffes, spotty voting record and everyone in the state, even average GOPers acknowledging that she's been eaten up by special interests in D.C.

That said, Trauner really didn't fit the profile of someone who I thought would be able to win a race here. He's the 2nd east coaster from Jackson -- presumably, because they have money -- to run in a row. I presume that's the Dem trend now and it's not a smart way to do it. Not that I care, I'm not on their side.

I really do think though, that Cubin will return to D.C. and carry on with business as usual, though she'll be neutered in a Dem controlled house to a degree. I really don't know if the party bosses will beg her to retire after this term (she'll get her penson) but...she seems smug enough that I think she'll try to run again and her special interest pals will ensure she has some cash.

It would be really interesting to run the next campaign for some upstart, because you can smell blood even before the next race begins.

[Young Drachma]

Dola -

The Jackson Hole newspaper (the only one in the state with this info on the web reports: (http://www.jhnews.com/article.php?ar...1b77f43443c1cc)

With all but a few precincts reporting, U.S. Rep. Barbara Cubin declared victory over Democratic challenger and Wilson resident Gary Trauner just after midnight Tuesday.

According to the results available at 1 a.m., Cubin led Trauner by a mere 700 votes; 91,385 to 90,685. A win by fewer than 913 votes would automatically trigger a recount under Wyoming state law.

“I’m calling it,” she told the Associated Press early Wednesday morning. “I just feel really gratified that we’re ahead, and I’m sure that we won the election.”

Despite the looming recount, Cubin for Congress spokesman Joe Milczewski said the incumbent representative was confident she had won.

“We got some information from Carbon County from folks watching the polls that, including late absentee ballots from Natrona County, she was up 640 votes,” he said “She felt comfortable she had won and looks forward to the next two years.”

Trauner was not ready to concede the election early Wednesday.

“All the votes aren’t counted,” he said. “I don’t know how you can say you won.”

Even if the race is not close enough for a mandatory recount, Trauner did not rule out asking for one.

“I think right now we are going to keep all our options open,” he said.

Libertarian Thomas Rankin won 7,298 votes or about four percent.

In a seesaw election that saw Trauner take the lead several times, a snafu in Carbon County held up the final count. At 1:15 a.m., Rawlins Daily Times Publisher Dave Perry said he was sending his paper to the press without knowing the outcome of the race or other races for Carbon County seats.

Perry made the decision when he learned the vote count would not be complete until an estimated 3 or 4 a.m. The Carbon County Clerk’s Office reported at midnight that paper ballots had to be counted manually, a task that was supposed to take several hours, Perry said.

The county used both touch screens and paper ballots to gather votes. The machines that scanned the paper ballots were malfunctioning, Perry said.

“We’re putting our paper to bed with no local results,” Perry said.

He's lucky if there is a state mandated recount. I think the story isn't quite dead yet.

[ChiMatt]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think this result will ultimately be good for the country given we can get back to a real debate on issues. Instead of one side hording all the power with little debate and the other complaining about how they have no power and therefore no need for ideas, we can have two ideas on things like tax relief, Iraq, health care and others with both sides knowing they will need to persuade atleast some on the other isle. So, it should be a very interesting two years leading up to 08.

So the Christian coalition thought fought all these years for control of the party is just going to give up? Look at how far down the democrats had to go before drafting candidates in the center. I think it is easier said than done the the Republicans will soften their stances.

[chinaski]

[DaddyTorgo]

ABC has called Montana for Tester...Tester has declared victory

[Butter]

AP reports Donald Rumsfeld is stepping down. This week just keeps getting better and better!

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

AP reports Donald Rumsfeld is stepping down. This week just keeps getting better and better!

Indeed! All we need now is Virginia to come through and it'll be time to start dancing with the Ewoks!

Yub-yub, baby!

[SirFozzie]

Tester's declared victory, so if true, it's 49-49-2.

Rumor:

Bush may offer Lieberman the SecDef job. If Lieberman does go (right now, the GOP Governor would appoint his replacement), rumor has it the Demos would put a full court press on New England Republican Senators Collins/Snowe to flip as well.

[Peregrine]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Tester's declared victory, so if true, it's 49-49-2.

Rumor:

Bush may offer Lieberman the SecDef job. If Lieberman does go (right now, the GOP Governor would appoint his replacement), rumor has it the Demos would put a full court press on New England Republican Senators Collins/Snowe to flip as well.

Debunk that rumor, Bob Gates is being nominated as the new Rummy. And I never understood the logic, even if you're mad at the Democrats, which is better, a key member of a Democratic Congress or a complete political exile in a horrible job having to defend the war and everything else.

[Wolfpack]

I just don't see why Lieberman would do that. He could have spared all the effort of the last several months by stepping aside after losing to Lamont the first time and still may have ended up with the job considering how poorly the Republicans did yesterday. Why fight to regain your seat like he did, only to just decide you would rather be SecDef in the opposing party's administration? He could get far more of his policies put through as a Senator than as SecDef.

[Vinatieri for Prez]

Gates is picked as the new Sec. Def, not Lieberman. But interesting tactic.

Aah, I got beat to it.