11-16-2011, 01:15 PM | #301 |
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11-16-2011, 01:46 PM | #302 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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Joe Blow should care if he wants to make a cogent, intelligent argument for or against a player. I really don't care about personal feelings - am I really supposed to take into account that Joe Bergey might feel bad because he's made a simplistic argument for why such and such player should win an award? Really? This isn't kindergarten. I'm not saying I'm right about my ultimate opinion - I'm saying that I believe there are flaws with your methodology, and if you don't care enough to correct them, then why should I care how you feel when I point out what's wrong with your methodology? To me, arguing in a vaccuum about the stats of two players without trying to ensure an apples to apples comparison is like arguing that Runner X's time of 10:35 blows away Runner Y's time of 14:40, when in fact Runner X was using a jetpack and Runner Y's shoes were made of lead. If you don't take that into account, why even make the comparison?
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 11-16-2011 at 01:48 PM. |
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11-16-2011, 01:47 PM | #303 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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So... I guess you shouldn't have written that post, is that what you're saying?!?!? Again, ?
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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11-16-2011, 02:03 PM | #304 | ||
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Its impossible isnt it? Sabermetrics has everything figured out. Let sabermetrics decide who wins the MVP, Cy Young, ROY and who wins the World Series. No reason to even waste our time watching something that saber already knows the answers to. Quote:
Just wish there was a different way for you to "get it." At some point you have forgotten it is players that play the games and not numbers. Verlander is a human and has emotions and doesnt always do what the computer says he should. Yeah wins is an overrated stat but the better pitchers do seem to win more often than the bad ones. They can do a great job of predicting how someone might have done under similar conditions but it makes it far from a fact that you want to make it. Because Verlander might have gotten 13 wins pitching for the Twins this year is kind of pointless as he didnt pitch for the Twins so who knows if that is true. What you really mean is based on this year Halladay and Sabathia would have probably done better playing in a neutral environment over Verlander and Kershaw. Im not sure why the REAL stats that were produced have to be countered by that argument. Many of the sabermetric stats are predictive and I think you have forgotten that along the way. You can predict what players will do in certain environments but you dont know for certain. I think much of the saber community has gotten the same way. I always understood that R/27(which was one James earlier stats) was a predictive stat. The new crowd of saber people think they are real stats. Last edited by jbergey22 : 11-16-2011 at 02:39 PM. |
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11-16-2011, 02:07 PM | #305 |
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WAR. Huh. Good God, y'all. What is it good for?
(spoiler alert: I have no idea what the WAR baseball stat is)
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11-16-2011, 02:19 PM | #306 | |
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Ha You better learn it, it is becoming the only relevant stat in baseball The days of caring how many homers a player has are coming to an end. We will soon only care how many homers a player would have hit playing his games in Florida. Its comparable to the Sagarin/Ken Pomeroy basketball ratings. Yeah, they tell us what should happen but the human element still exists. Last edited by jbergey22 : 11-16-2011 at 02:24 PM. |
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11-16-2011, 02:36 PM | #307 | |
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As a die hard baseball fan and one who leans on the advanced metrics, I think you're reaching here. People make jokes about why even vote if the computers have it all figured out which to me sounds perfectly acceptable. Who cares if the computers have surpassed our human statistics. I don't watch the game of baseball because I am trying to figure out who the Cy Young is or who the MVP will be. At times, yes, that may cross my mind, but that's far down the list as to why. If computers took over the job of deciding who wins the CY Young I would not watch less baseball. |
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11-16-2011, 02:43 PM | #308 | |
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I was just being sarcastic, sorry. It gets sickening arguing this topic when I appreciate these stats as much as anyone. Simply because I argue that saber people should consider the other side I am considered a clueless noob at baseball stats. Really annoying. |
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11-16-2011, 02:48 PM | #309 | |
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*sigh* I'm not saying that. I'm saying the stats have to be interpreted properly so that a fair comparison can be made. That's all. All of this BS about human beings and emotions and "crotchety old man speak" means absolutely nothing. The stats are what they are, but they are naked and barely useful without context. You are evaluating a complex scenario with no context, just taking the conditions as you find them and comparing them to another set of data developed under different conditions. If you refuse to acknowledge that the same numbers generated in different places or times are not equal, but that for some reason a player's humanity should factor in to how we argue a point, I don't know what to tell you. At its core, this has nothing to do with baseball. This is about supporting your position with a reasoned argument. If you choose to argue that 2 dissimilar things are the same for comparison sake, I will more than likely reject that argument for obvious reasons. Doesn't matter if we're talking Cy Young Awards or Nobel Peace Prizes or what. I'm not saying you aren't entitled to your opinion, but I am saying that I give it very little weight because it's not sound.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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11-16-2011, 02:52 PM | #310 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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I consider all sides when evaluating something like this. Sometimes, the underlying numbers and the conditions they are generated under are so similar that there's no need to make the distinction, and you're really just splitting hairs, with either answer not right or wrong. Other times, the performance levels are so disparate that it's obvious, using even rudimentary evaluation tools, who the "winner" is. But just saying the stats are what the stats are and you should appreciate them for that and why can't you be happy for Justin Verlander that he won 24 games and going no further? No. That will never do. In any context, baseball or otherwise.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
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11-16-2011, 02:52 PM | #311 |
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Please don't think I'm knocking the so-called advanced stats when I say this, because I'm not going to knock something I don't understand. It sounds like WAR is the most often quoted stat when trying to compare two players and determine which was better. If it's really as simple as that, I'd like to see them put WAR up on in a player's stat graphic during games. .296 BA, 20 HR, 86 RBI, .397 OBP, 2.8 WAR.
Of course, if folks can't even come to an agreement about how to calculate WAR, I suppose that makes it a little difficult. Still, if all these folks are savvy enough to acknowledge this stat's importance, you'd think they could all come up with a standard definition of it, in which case I want to see it in a stat graphic on TV. I'm not making fun. I really want to see it. Then, as each batter comes to the plate, I'll know whether he is better or worse than the guy who batted before him. Then again, if I got everything I wanted, I wouldn't be posting this right now. I'd be in the midst of a four-way around-the-world with my wife, Catherine Zeta-Jones, and Zach Parise right now.
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11-16-2011, 02:59 PM | #312 | |
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This is perfectly fine. |
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11-16-2011, 03:02 PM | #313 | |
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WAR is a rather new concept so Id guess the majority of people wouldnt have the slighest idea on what it was. It can also change depending on what is happening elsewhere which might be confusing to people Plus if they put it up there they might have to try and explain how it actually works and is figured out. It would be funny to listen to some of these older announcers do that. |
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11-16-2011, 03:02 PM | #314 |
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I shy away from WAR for that reason. It's really like the VHS/Betamax argument. Two different sides who want their propriety version of the same thing to carry the day. IMO, it's more useful in theory than in practice right now. I haven't even mentioned WAR. But I also haven't mentioned the salt content of Justin Verlander's tears, either, so I guess I should head back down to the basement and get back to work on the plans for my Advanced Human Replacement Baseball League.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-16-2011, 03:09 PM | #315 |
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I actually had no idea that WAR was relatively new. Hmm. Well, a lot of people seem to be hanging their hats on it, so I thought it would be good to see. I guess what I'm getting at is that if they started "forcing" these stats on people - even in the context of putting them on the TV screen - people would start accepting their value a bit more... assuming they have value... which I suppose they do since this conversation seems to come up every year at postseason awards time.
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No, I am not Batman, and I will not repair your food processor. Last edited by Pumpy Tudors : 11-16-2011 at 03:09 PM. |
11-16-2011, 03:14 PM | #316 | |
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They just recently started adding OPS which has been very poplular for 20+ years. Signs are there that people are coming around but it is a SLOW process. Id be fine if they changed OPS to OPS+ and had ERA+ instead of WAR. WAR is great for the overall picture but doesnt really tell us how a player gets there. And yeah its a common debate. Doesnt happen as much in this forum as others though. Last edited by jbergey22 : 11-16-2011 at 03:15 PM. |
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11-16-2011, 03:15 PM | #317 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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At this point, I'm happy that OPS has become a relatively useful stat to some people. It's not perfect, but it's better than batting average. I grew up on the staple of BA/HR/RBI, so I actually like seeing them - it's almost like the baseball version of comfort food - but I have the exact opposite reaction when I'm evaluating a player or comparing him to someone else... don't even want to see those stats. So there's a dual functionality to baseball stats for me - the ones I'm used to seeing, and the ones I hope make some inroads because for purposes of what people use them for, they are far better than what we've been stuck with for 100 years.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 11-16-2011 at 03:16 PM. |
11-16-2011, 03:31 PM | #318 |
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I think what we really need is the talking heads on the TV to tell us what "good" values are for most of these stats. I grew up on BA/HR/RBI, also, and they basically told me that .300 is a good batting average, 30 HR is really good, and 100 RBI is really good. I'm not saying that I can't think for myself, but I admit I'd like to see the same kind of agreement in today's game with other stats.
I'll never get into a debate with someone to compare players on different teams again, that's for sure. I don't know enough about the new stats, I don't know enough about the ballparks they play in, and it all comes down to me not being that interested. With that said, however, I'd love to see the OPS of a player and know right away whether that is considered pretty good or not. Right now, I have no idea. Virtually every time I see OPS mentioned, it's qualified with what position he plays. Now, I get that I'm an old fart with not much interest in stats anymore, but I've never been able to wrap my head around how a player's defensive position has any bearing on what he does with the bat. I'm seriously digressing here, though, so unless called upon to add any more, I'll leave this to the folks who know more about it than I do. If you need any great insight from me, I'll likely be in a bowling or arena football thread.
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No, I am not Batman, and I will not repair your food processor. Last edited by Pumpy Tudors : 11-16-2011 at 03:31 PM. |
11-16-2011, 03:34 PM | #319 | |
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OPS less than 650 is BAD around 750 is average 850 and above is studly Pujols comes in around 1.000 or above every year. A guy like Juan Pierre will usually be below 650. Someone in the middle range would be Derek Jeter. Last edited by jbergey22 : 11-16-2011 at 03:36 PM. |
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11-16-2011, 03:35 PM | #320 |
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Thanks. Now, does this apply only to middle infielders or is a 1B with an .850 pretty good?
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11-16-2011, 03:37 PM | #322 |
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11-16-2011, 03:40 PM | #323 |
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I believe, for general/ballpark purposes, in today's game an .800+ OPS is "good." I believe the MLB average OPS is anywhere from .720-760ish maybe?
The reason you take position into account is not defensive ability, but relative to position, what is good. It's essentially the same argument as we used to make with BA, where you'd expect SS to be a weaker hitter than a LF, for instance. Since OPS is half slugging percentage, you'd expect your power positions to have higher OPS. So if you've got a 2B or CF or SS with 30+ HRs or a ton of DO/TR, their OPS is going to be higher than the typical middle infielder/CF. Obviously, like with HR and BA, it's all in context. An .800 OPS even 5 yearrs ago isn't as great as it is now. I thinnk someone pointed out that Jeff Francoeur put up essentially the same numbers this year as he did 4 years ago. And 4 years ago, people thought he was substandard for a RF. And he was. But those same numbers in pitching-heavy 2011 actually made him an above-average player.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." Last edited by Ksyrup : 11-16-2011 at 03:40 PM. |
11-16-2011, 03:52 PM | #324 |
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I know, but I still need a baseline to tell me what people consider to be "good." I have that now.
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11-16-2011, 03:59 PM | #325 | |
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Steve Yzerman: 1,755 points in 1,514 regular season games. 185 points in 196 postseason games. A First-Team All-Star, Conn Smythe Trophy winner, Selke Trophy winner, Masterton Trophy winner, member of the Hockey Hall of Fame, Olympic gold medallist, and a three-time Stanley Cup Champion. Longest serving captain of one team in the history of the NHL (19 seasons). |
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11-16-2011, 04:01 PM | #326 |
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Hell yes.
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11-16-2011, 04:13 PM | #327 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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This made me laugh:
Marc_Normandin Marc Normandin Oh my god, they ate Dale Sveum RT:
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-16-2011, 04:39 PM | #328 |
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Looks like Houston is moving to the AL West, finally evening things out.
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11-16-2011, 05:18 PM | #329 | ||
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11-16-2011, 05:25 PM | #330 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-16-2011, 05:31 PM | #331 | |
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11-16-2011, 05:40 PM | #332 | |||
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11-16-2011, 05:44 PM | #333 | |
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The most surprising thing I learned was that Wilson is only 18 months younger than Mark Buehrle. People would think it was insane if Buehrle got a 5 year deal. |
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11-16-2011, 05:46 PM | #334 |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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stljccorcoran jc
New info. We believe Albert will announce Friday morning followed immediately by a vacation to Hawaii. 19 minutes ago stljccorcoran jc Despite official denials I have no reason to amend the Pujols story. I believe it to be accurate. 1 hour ago stljccorcoran jc Albert to announce on Friday he's re-signing with the Cardinals.
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M's pitcher Miguel Batista: "Now, I feel like I've had everything. I've talked pitching with Sandy Koufax, had Kenny G play for me. Maybe if I could have an interview with God, then I'd be served. I'd be complete." |
11-16-2011, 05:48 PM | #335 | |
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I am, too. I wonder why I haven't gotten an offer yet? |
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11-16-2011, 06:07 PM | #336 | |
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Yay! I do like even leagues. Maybe we can get an balanced schedule (hey, if we are having a Wild Card)?
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11-16-2011, 06:34 PM | #337 | |
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I would also point out that I've seen some work out there that has me question a bit the validity of UZR data. Matthew Carruth has been doing some good work in this arena, though I'm not sure if he's publicly posted his data for team "reaching base via batted balls" (RBBIP) metric, one where he delves more deeply into team BABIP against data, factoring in line drive rates and ballpark effects. From strictly a team BABIP standpoint, it appears Detroit was a bit better than the Yankees (.292 vs. .296), though obviously that's not a big enough difference to satisfactorily explain why Verlander's BABPI against was so low. To be fair, looking deeper at the numbers I see that Verlander's line drive percentage was lower than Sabathia's. I haven't been tracking all the latest SABR articles to get a good sense on the current feeling about pitcher control of line drive percentage, but I'd give Verlander the benefit of the doubt in having some control over that. And that gibes with my often-stated belief that Verlander deserved the award - I just don't think he had enough of an edge that Sabathia should have been shut out of 1st place votes. |
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11-16-2011, 06:37 PM | #338 | |
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11-16-2011, 07:31 PM | #339 | |
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I don't understand. This is not the Pumpy I know and love. He makes cogent arguments with some lovely understated satire thrown in. Oh wait, got to paragraph 3. Never mind SI
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11-17-2011, 12:07 PM | #340 | |
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But how can someone be "lucky" over the course of a whole season? I can understand a game. I can understand a series of games. But, if luck is random, how many pitches/innings/starts do you need to eliminate it? Can a pitcher have a "lucky" career? If their stats appear HoF-worthy, could you make a case against them saying they were just "lucky"? Which is to say - what's more likely, that Verlander was *a lot* more lucky over 34 starts, or that the reasoning behind declaring this to just be luck and not performance based is flawed?
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There's no I in Teamocil, at least not where you'd think Last edited by Ronnie Dobbs2 : 11-17-2011 at 12:08 PM. |
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11-17-2011, 12:12 PM | #341 |
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verlander was just better in the clutch duh
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11-17-2011, 12:19 PM | #342 |
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ESPN is fucking stupid, there is no way that the Phillies will trade Cole Hamels. Philadelphia values pitching more than any other position, and know that left-handed under-30 pitchers are rare. Moreover, they learned from the Cliff Lee trade that you never get back what you're giving up when you trade a star pitcher.
They will either pay him or let him walk and collect draft picks, most likely the former. |
11-17-2011, 12:23 PM | #343 |
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You could have just stopped after the first four words (then again, if that's all you had posted- it wouldn't really be news)
SI
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11-17-2011, 12:42 PM | #344 |
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11-17-2011, 12:47 PM | #345 | |
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Kathy Griffin is going to be pissed... |
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11-17-2011, 12:50 PM | #346 |
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catherine zeta jones and zach parise have slightly better WAR than kathy griffin
gotta go with the numbers obv
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11-17-2011, 01:04 PM | #347 | ||
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One other thing worth noting is that the barometer of what a good OPS is has also dropped by about .030 - .050 with the reduced offense of the past 2 seasons. League average OPS 2011 - .719 2010 - .728 2009 - .750 2008 - .749 2007 - .758 2006 - .768 2005 - .749 2004 - .763 2003 - .754 2002 - .748 Last edited by BishopMVP : 11-17-2011 at 01:06 PM. |
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11-17-2011, 01:12 PM | #348 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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Kathy Griffin hasn't just seen the horrors of WAR, her face is the horror of WAR.
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11-17-2011, 01:15 PM | #349 |
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brutal
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