Official 2009-2010 MLB Offseason Thread

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

It depends on just how highly he is being rated. I think his ceiling is a #2/3. His dominant numbers have come in large part because of great command, which is obviously fantastic, but has less projectability and regresses some at the higher levels like Bowden has. So he is a great prospect, and probably deserves to be around #50 in the minors, but if he's being put up in the top 20 and talked about as a future ace his value is likely to never be higher (see Lars Anderson last offseason). He's also a pitching prospect in single A - TNSTAAP and all. There's a reason why Westmoreland is the one untouchable in the system and Buchholz is the pitcher Toronto asked for first. I'm not even sure Kelly deserves to be higher than Reddick, Lars, Bowden or Kalish, but people tend to get enamored of the newest shiny thing (helloooooo Jose Iglesias!).

Fair enough. #50 is about where I'd rate him, he's too far away to say he's a huge prospect at this point. I am excited for what he did in A ball at a young age but he's far from golden for sure. A little surprised that you'd see Reddick or (especially) Bowden above him, though.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Logan

...Roy Halladay
Raul Ibanez
RedKingGold
Jimmy Rollins...

Got it.

Really? We're nitpicking the use of pronouns when describing the team one is a fan of?

SI

[Logan]

No, only for RKG. We should also tell him how it doesn't matter if he thinks the Phillies will win it all since none of us are MLB scouts.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Fair enough. #50 is about where I'd rate him, he's too far away to say he's a huge prospect at this point. I am excited for what he did in A ball at a young age but he's far from golden for sure. A little surprised that you'd see Reddick or (especially) Bowden above him, though.

I'm not sure I'd say above, but all jumbled in the same grouping with plausible arguments for each. Bowden had a better K/9 and equal K/BB ratios at age 19 in Single A. It feels like he's been around forever, but he's only 22 and put up a WHIP of 1.21 in AAA last year. Michael Bowden Minor League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Well, to your larger point I am all for cashing in on our prospects except Westmoreland. I'm still holding out hope we can forget Beltre and get that 1B from San Diego.

[sterlingice]

"That 1B from San Diego" *sigh*

SI

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

I'm not sure what you're referring to, but I certainly feel entitled to him.

[sterlingice]

Oh, c'mon! He's one of the best power hitters in baseball. At least know his name!

SI

[lungs]

As long as it gets all you Boston fools away from drooling over Prince Fielder

Or I suppose that's David Ortiz's replacement, no?

[ISiddiqui]

Seriously...

(on knowing the guy's name)

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Oh come on guys. Of course I know Adrion Rodriguez's name.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Oh come on guys. Of course I know Adrion Rodriguez's name.

Nicely played. Vaguely misspell the first name and then exchange for another "generic" common Latin ballplayer last name.

I also would have accepted the following:
Adiran Hernandez
Adrayan Lopez
Hadrian Ramirez

SI

[DaddyTorgo]

hmm - beltre would be fantastic? really?

his slugging fell off a cliff after his "steroid-year" and then fell off the second cliff this past year (he was injured though i gather?).

call me crazy, but i find it hard to get excited about a guy hitting .265 and putting up 25 homers with a .327 OBP. Even if he's Omar frigging Vizquiel.

And Beltre, as good as he is in the field is maybe 11 runs better than Lowell (based on baseball reference's "Total Fielding Runs Above Average."). Lowell's OPS+ was like 24pts higher and hit .290 as compared to .265 in basically the same number of games. Lowell's 2009 VORP was 22.9. Beltre was 5.

Not that statistics are everything, but I don't see how Beltre (at the added cost of salary - $3m - Max R.'s salary) is a "fantastic upgrade" over Lowell.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Well, to your larger point I am all for cashing in on our prospects except Westmoreland. I'm still holding out hope we can forget Beltre and get that 1B from San Diego.

one of the last tweets from the winter meeting was that SD is listening to offers but definately not "shopping" gonzalez.

[Atocep]

Could someone in or around NY please head over to the Mets offices and tell them not to sign Benjie Molina?

Thanks.

[Sublime 2]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

hmm - beltre would be fantastic? really?

his slugging fell off a cliff after his "steroid-year" and then fell off the second cliff this past year (he was injured though i gather?).

call me crazy, but i find it hard to get excited about a guy hitting .265 and putting up 25 homers with a .327 OBP. Even if he's Omar frigging Vizquiel.

And Beltre, as good as he is in the field is maybe 11 runs better than Lowell (based on baseball reference's "Total Fielding Runs Above Average."). Lowell's OPS+ was like 24pts higher and hit .290 as compared to .265 in basically the same number of games. Lowell's 2009 VORP was 22.9. Beltre was 5.

Not that statistics are everything, but I don't see how Beltre (at the added cost of salary - $3m - Max R.'s salary) is a "fantastic upgrade" over Lowell.

I tend to agree. Beltre is really pretty 'meh' to me, especially if they are looking at anything more than a 3 yr deal. Defense seems to such volatile skill once players reach their mid 30's. Isn't Lowell just a couple years away from like a +10 to +15 UZR (understandably not the be all end all of defensive stats)? I'd much rather move Youk to 3rd and have Kotchman at 1st if it means holding out for something better.

[Mr. Sparkle]

Since I'm bored, I'll give you all my thoughts on the offseason so far:

I must say, I like how things have transpired so far Giants fan, for a couple reasons: The Giants haven't done anything stupid (yet), and the NL West hasn't gotten any better (and in some cases, worse). The NYY-DET-AZ deal is terrible for Arizona. They have to be convinced that Scherzer is going to break down in the very near future. Jackson is decent enough, but he's going to start getting expensive. Kennedy was hurt for pretty much all of 2009, and I don't think he'll be much more than a #4 starter at best. They must have been impressed with his AFL numbers. They gave up two young, cheap pitchers who are under control for a long time. Not bright.

I don't know why the Dodgers didn't offer arbitration to Wolf and Hudson. They cost themselves some draft picks with that decision. Hudson might have accepted, but they have no second basemen anyways, so that wouldn't have been devastating. Even Wolf accepting wouldn't have been terribly bad. Now that he's gone, they have two holes to fill in their rotation.

Colorado hasn't done much, but they don't really have to. They're the NL West team most set for the future, IMO. They could use an upgrade in their rotation, depending on how Jeff Francis comes back from injury.

San Diego is, well, San Diego. When you have to non-tender Kevin Correia because you don't want to pay him a couple mil, you know it's going to be a long 2010.

Around the league, I love what the Mariners are doing. I'm not a huge Figgins guy, but he came cheaper than I thought, and with Ichiro will make a studly 1-2 punch at the top of the order. Would've loved their offseason even more had they signed Harden. Jack Z seems to be checking in on every available player, be it trade or FA. I think they still have some big moves left in them.

The team with the worst offseason so far has to be the Astros. 3/$15 million for Brandon Lyon? If you're going to overpay, overpay for a good MR! Pedro Feliz is garbage. They didn't give up too much for Matt Lindstrom, but they have the worst farm system in baseball so I don't know that they should be trading anyone with even a slight bit of talent.

I'm glad the Giants didn't pay Brad Penny what he got from St. Louis. I'd rather have had Harden than Penny, personally. If the Giants are going to sign a SP to replace him, I'd love them to see what Bedard wants. He'd take a 1 year deal to rebuild his value, and SF is a great park to do it in. So glad Molina is gone, but I just wish they'd hand the job to Posey and be done with it. They might have to by default now, given that the Nationals skewed the entire market for catchers with their ridiculous signing of Pudge for 2 years/$6 million. Please, Sabean, no Rod Barajas/Jason Kendall/Miguel Olivo. Sign someone cheap, like a Josh Bard type, and let Posey do his thing. All in all, Sabes has been saying a lot of logical things. They appear to be in on Nick Johnson, have a passing interest on Beltre, won't give up too much for Dan Uggla. I...I don't even know who he is any more. It's going to be amazing to see how he screws everything up this time.

So I guess that's all from me, for now at least. Back to your regularly scheduled Red Sox/Yankees/Mets/Phillies talk!

[CraigSca]

The more I hear about the Mets plans, the more they sound to me like the Yankees of the 80's. They overpay for "names" in the twilights of their careers with more downside than upside.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

hmm - beltre would be fantastic? really?

his slugging fell off a cliff after his "steroid-year" and then fell off the second cliff this past year (he was injured though i gather?).

call me crazy, but i find it hard to get excited about a guy hitting .265 and putting up 25 homers with a .327 OBP. Even if he's Omar frigging Vizquiel.

Safeco was an awful home park for Beltre - it seriously negates right-handed power hitters. It has killed Beltre - his home/road OPS splits since he signed with Seattle:

.694/.735
.777/.805
.745/.858
.703/.861
.647/.717

All those flyballs that died on the warning track at Safeco will be either homers or doubles off the Monster at Fenway.

You just have to hope he can stay a little more healthy than he was with Seattle - he's been battling a chronic thumb problem and has had groin, hamstring and wrist injuries. But the guy is a warrior - he will battle through most injuries, probably to the detriment of himself and his team.

And Beltre, as good as he is in the field is maybe 11 runs better than Lowell (based on baseball reference's "Total Fielding Runs Above Average."). Lowell's OPS+ was like 24pts higher and hit .290 as compared to .265 in basically the same number of games. Lowell's 2009 VORP was 22.9. Beltre was 5.

Not that statistics are everything, but I don't see how Beltre (at the added cost of salary - $3m - Max R.'s salary) is a "fantastic upgrade" over Lowell.

WAR results (via Fangraphs) over the 5 years comparing Beltre & Lowell:

2005: 2.5 vs. 0.5
2006: 4.6 vs. 3.4
2007: 3.0 vs. 5.3
2008: 4.1 vs. 3.2
2009: 2.4 vs. 1.2

That's 16.6 for Beltre vs. 13.6 for Lowell.

"Fantastic" upgrade? I don't know if that's true, but definitely an upgrade.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

The other thing is that Lowell's hip got shot. You can't really look at Lowell's defense a couple of years ago because that's in no way who Lowell is now.

[DaddyTorgo]

that's legit about lowell's hip. but i wasn't thinking they'd keep him there. it'd be more likely they'd move youk there and move lowell to 1B, or acquire a 1B thru a trade or something else. just saying historically-speaking Beltre hasn't been loads better defensively than Lowell.

Interesting about safeco killing beltre's power. If he does have a "fenway" type swing he could definately benefit from the monster, that's for sure

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Personally I think that Youk/Lowell to Kotchman/Youk is close to a wash.

[Mr. Sparkle]

I found these stats comparing Beltre on the road from '06-'08, and Jason Bay on the road from '07-'09 to be verrrrry interesting:

Beltre: .287 BA 132 runs, 69 2B, five 3B, 39 HRs and 153 RBI
Bay: .262 BA 143 runs, 40 2B, four 3B, 48 HRs and 134 RBI

Road OPS from same timeframe

Beltre: 805, .858 and .862
Bay: .766, .874 and .904

Beltre's 2009 stats were ignored because he was hurt, but this illustrates how terrible Safeco is for right-handed power hitters such as Adrian Beltre. Mix in his consistently Gold Glove caliber defense, and he could be a great signing for a team. I'm hoping it's the Giants, but it's beginning to look like they're not willing to meet his current asking price.

[JS19]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

The more I hear about the Mets plans, the more they sound to me like the Yankees of the 80's. They overpay for "names" in the twilights of their careers with more downside than upside.

Seriously. I thought they put that behind them after the Alomar/Vaughn/Burnitz disaster, but apparently not. I used to be a supporter of Minaya, but this team is such a mess, somebody needs to be held responsible. I saw on espn that they are in the mix for Bay. I know they need an OF and a power bat, but if they sign him I feel like it will just set them back even further.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JS19

Seriously. I thought they put that behind them after the Alomar/Vaughn/Burnitz disaster, but apparently not. I used to be a supporter of Minaya, but this team is such a mess, somebody needs to be held responsible. I saw on espn that they are in the mix for Bay. I know they need an OF and a power bat, but if they sign him I feel like it will just set them back even further.

Bay's defense at Citi would be a disaster waiting to happen. I don't mind seeing them going after big name free agents and making another 2 year run with this core; especially when you consider they won't lose a 1st round pick by signing a type A. If Holliday's demands are anywhere near what Bay's are, though, Holliday is the way to go.

To stress this point again - PLEASE DON'T SIGN BENJIE MOLINA. WE ALREADY HAVE FRANOEUR GIVING AWAY NEARLY 500 OUTS PER YEAR.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sparkle

I don't know why the Dodgers didn't offer arbitration to Wolf and Hudson. They cost themselves some draft picks with that decision. Hudson might have accepted, but they have no second basemen anyways, so that wouldn't have been devastating. Even Wolf accepting wouldn't have been terribly bad. Now that he's gone, they have two holes to fill in their rotation.

Because Frank McCourt is penny-wise and pound-fucking-foolish.

No, I'm not bitter.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Logan

No, only for RKG. We should also tell him how it doesn't matter if he thinks the Phillies will win it all since none of us are MLB scouts.

Hmm...it might be about time to bump that Mets thread.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by JS19

Seriously. I thought they put that behind them after the Alomar/Vaughn/Burnitz disaster, but apparently not. I used to be a supporter of Minaya, but this team is such a mess, somebody needs to be held responsible. I saw on espn that they are in the mix for Bay. I know they need an OF and a power bat, but if they sign him I feel like it will just set them back even further.

That's funny because at Royals Review, there's a school of thought that Dayton Moore and Omar Minaya are racing to see who can make worse moves: " I think Omar may have already checkmated Dayton on free-agent C acquisition if the 2/$12M offer to Benjie is true."

Then again, yesterday, the conclusion was reached that "GMDM’s entire personnel acquisition philosophy does seem to be based on spite."

"This must be Dayton’s “You guys didn’t like Olivo, I’ll show YOU!” statement. When you’d rather hear your team linked to Rod Barajas than some other player, it’s truly a brutal offseason."

“You guys didn’t like Joey Gathright. I’ll show YOU: Josh Anderson!”
“You guys didn’t like Ross Gload. I’ll show YOU: Mike Jacobs!”
“You guys didn’t like Brett Tomko. I’ll show YOU: Sidney Ponson!”

And, of course:
“You guys didn’t like Angel Berroa. I’ll show YOU: Tony Pena Jr!”
“You guys didn’t like Tony Pena Jr. I’ll show YOU: Yuniesky Betancourt!”


But, really, what is up with this bizarre game of "Crappy, Old C Musical Chairs". You've got Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Kendall, Benji Molina, Rod Barajas, Miguel Olivo, and Yorvit Torrelba for the Rockies, Nats, Mets, Royals, Giants, and Blue Jays and maybe there's another C or two or another team or two I'm missing. And they're all getting 2 year deals!?!


SI

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

If the Met's initial offer of 4/$65 is to be believed, then it looks like Bay won't be coming back to Boston.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

The more I hear about the Mets plans, the more they sound to me like the Yankees of the 80's. They overpay for "names" in the twilights of their careers with more downside than upside.

I wouldnt single this out to the Yankees of the 80s. They are still doing it however doing it with more fortune and better players around them "names" in the twilight of their careers.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by lungs

Of course I've been looking at Harden through Brewers lenses. The Brewers had one of the worst starting staffs in the league last year, if not the worst. I thought signing a guy like Randy Wolf was much preferred to signing a guy like Harden. Wolf won't put up dazzling numbers like Harden has the potential to do, but at the same time Wolf is no slouch.

I've considered myself a stats guy for a long time but people keep throwing me these projections that Wolf and Harden will end up with the same WAR even though Harden projects to throw a lot less innings than Wolf because Harden's work will be higher quality. But I keep throwing out the fact that Harden on average is a 5-6 inning pitcher and and will tax the bullpen tremendously. Does WAR take that into account?

I love stats and put a great amount of stock into them but sometimes people just take them too literally and look at things in too much of a vacuum as if each individual player is on his own and not part of a collective entity that is a baseball team.

Nobody on here is doing that, but I'm talking about a Brewer site I visit and post where if I posted what I just posted I'd get jumped on as being anti-intellectual when in fact I'm quite the stats nerd myself.

I think they overpaid quite a bit TBH. Wolf looked great last year however it was his first good season since 2003. Dodger Stadium is a pitchers park and Wolf is 33 years old. I cant see him improving from last year. Something like 11-11 with a 4.15 ERA is what Id expect.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I think they overpaid quite a bit TBH. Wolf looked great last year however it was his first good season since 2003. Dodger Stadium is a pitchers park and Wolf is 33 years old. I cant see him improving from last year. Something like 11-11 with a 4.15 ERA is what Id expect.

Problem is Wolf pitched better on the road than he did at Dodger Stadium.
(edit: Home - 4-3 3.63 ERA 15 HR allowed. Away: 7-4 2.78 ERA 9 HR allowed)

Don't get me wrong, I know they overpaid but they really had no choice. Otherwise they'd be throwing the likes of Braden Looper and Mike Burns out there again next year. Jeff Suppan's dreadful contract ($12 million next season) will finally be off the books along with a lot of other money like paying Bill Hall $8 million not to play for the Brewers and David Riske's $4.5 million to rehab from TJ surgery.

I'd be perfectly fine with a 4.15 ERA. Guessing a record is a fool's errand as it's pretty dependent on the offense. Wolf might end up being a pretty bad contract in the third year but we'll cross that road then.

[Mr. Sparkle]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Because Frank McCourt is penny-wise and pound-fucking-foolish.

No, I'm not bitter.

I have a feeling that whole divorce thing will affect the Dodgers' offseason. Just a feeling.

[Terps]

Pedro Feliz signing with Houston might be the best move the Orioles made all week.

He was apparently at the top of the O's wish list, thank god Houston was dumb enough to sign him. Izturis is already an all glove, no hit SS, they didn't need an all glove, no hit 3Bman.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by lungs

As long as it gets all you Boston fools away from drooling over Prince Fielder

Or I suppose that's David Ortiz's replacement, no?

Pretty much. Let us know when he gets too expensive/too big for 1B.

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

that's legit about lowell's hip. but i wasn't thinking they'd keep him there. it'd be more likely they'd move youk there and move lowell to 1B, or acquire a 1B thru a trade or something else. just saying historically-speaking Beltre hasn't been loads better defensively than Lowell.

Yeah, but 2004 Mike Lowell would be a huge improvement over 2009/10 Mike Lowell. It's not his fault age finally caught up with him, but I'd say it's pretty obvious if we sign Scutaro and Beltre while letting Bay go that we're building more heavily around defense and pitching than the past couple years.

Interesting about safeco killing beltre's power. If he does have a "fenway" type swing he could definately benefit from the monster, that's for sure

Beltre career road split: .287 avg .338 OBP .488 SLG .826 OPS
Lowell career road split: .276 avg .331 OBP .382 SLG .713 OPS

At some point it's less about "having a Fenway" swing and more about not being a black hole on the road. Our offense often disappeared on the road, Mike Lowell had the biggest splits, and it's a large part of why we had the 3rd biggest home/road split in the majors (after Tampa and weirdly Pittsburgh). If not Beltre, Nick Johnson is another FA that the RS have tried to acquire in the past. (And of course, the deal may not be done - tbh it doesn't make much sense from Texas' perspective.)

[lungs]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Pretty much. Let us know when he gets too expensive/too big for 1B.

In 2008, Prince was just awful at first base and he really let his weight get away from him. Thankfully he knew it and he came into 2009 in much better shape and it showed offensively and defensively. He went from awful to acceptable defensively.

He's under contract for 2010 and arbitration eligible again in 2011. It'll be interesting to see how he is handled. I think people underestimate how much the Brewers can actually spend, but then again, Fielder might be making himself into a $18-20 million/year player which would be workable if there wasn't a risk with his weight.

Thankfully Ryan Braun is signed to a very, very team friendly deal and I just laugh at some of these trade proposals I hear on MLBTraderumors comment sections where guys want to give up about 4 average prospects for Ryan Braun.

Braun ain't gettin' too expensive for the Brewers any time soon. Nor is he getting traded.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by Mr. Sparkle

I have a feeling that whole divorce thing will affect the Dodgers' offseason. Just a feeling.

Oh, absolutely.

But the point is, he's pinching pennies as a result of that, either because he thinks he'll have to sell the team, or because he thinks he's going to end up having to pay Jamie something or other.

Instead of investing in the team, with the knowledge that he's got a team that could win a World Series with just a couple more pieces, and that's far more valuable than a team that loses a couple of NLCS before sinking back into a repeat of the late 90s.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by lungs

In 2008, Prince was just awful at first base and he really let his weight get away from him. Thankfully he knew it and he came into 2009 in much better shape and it showed offensively and defensively. He went from awful to acceptable defensively.

He's under contract for 2010 and arbitration eligible again in 2011. It'll be interesting to see how he is handled. I think people underestimate how much the Brewers can actually spend, but then again, Fielder might be making himself into a $18-20 million/year player which would be workable if there wasn't a risk with his weight.

Thankfully Ryan Braun is signed to a very, very team friendly deal and I just laugh at some of these trade proposals I hear on MLBTraderumors comment sections where guys want to give up about 4 average prospects for Ryan Braun.

Braun ain't gettin' too expensive for the Brewers any time soon. Nor is he getting traded.

Yeah I think the Prince as Ortiz replacement line was more prevalent in 2008 when Fielder was eating his way out of 1B and the Brewers still had LaPorta/Gamel as power hitters behind Braun and Fielder. I don't know how Braun's defense in left is progressing, but he's probably still well below average and might be best suited for 1B as well. But clearly anyone who knows what they're talking about knows Braun (and Longoria, probably Hanley until 2013) isn't going anywhere during his current deal.

A darkhorse power-hitting 1B/DH that's hasn't been mentioned here (and I would hate) is Justin Morneau, under the thinking that Minnesota could trade him and use that money to re-sign Joe Mauer.

[RainMaker]

Not sure if this has been posted, but it's Gammons' farewell. Pretty long career at ESPN and definitely made his mark. I remember as a kid listening to Diamond Notes for the little news stories that no one else had.

Peter Gammons: My 20 years at ESPN - ESPN

[lungs]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Yeah I think the Prince as Ortiz replacement line was more prevalent in 2008 when Fielder was eating his way out of 1B and the Brewers still had LaPorta/Gamel as power hitters behind Braun and Fielder. I don't know how Braun's defense in left is progressing, but he's probably still well below average and might be best suited for 1B as well. But clearly anyone who knows what they're talking about knows Braun (and Longoria, probably Hanley until 2013) isn't going anywhere during his current deal.

A darkhorse power-hitting 1B/DH that's hasn't been mentioned here (and I would hate) is Justin Morneau, under the thinking that Minnesota could trade him and use that money to re-sign Joe Mauer.

UZR had Braun as one of the worst LF in the NL last year, if not the worst. The thing is, Braun is very athletic. He's not that big of a guy for the power numbers he puts up. Watching him play every day, his problem is that he takes some strange angles on balls and makes some boneheaded plays once in a while. He's got a rocket of an arm out there. I don't think it's a matter of him not having the physical tools to play outfield, but a matter of him using those tools to play better. I guess I won't get too worked up about Braun's defense out there when he hits like does. There is probably more talk of actually moving him to a harder outfield position (RF) in order to accommodate another butcher of a 3B in Mat Gamel's move to the outfield.

As for Prince, I wouldn't eliminate him as a possibility for other teams in the near future as much as it pains me to say it. I'm guessing they will talk to Prince and Scott Boras this offseason after the rest of the holes are plugged about an extension that would probably take him to about 30 years old. Surprisingly, the Brewers have a very good relationship with Boras but I'm not necessarily getting my hopes up for an extension.

If the Brewers aren't contending at the trade deadline next year, I could see Prince being shopped if no extension is signed. Definitely next offseason if there is no extension.

[SirFozzie]

Wow, talk out of NOWHERE..

Red Sox gave John Lackey a physical today, and multiple sources are reporting he's close to signing a deal in the range of 5 years/$82.5 million

[DaddyTorgo]

zoinks!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Wow, talk out of NOWHERE..

Red Sox gave John Lackey a physical today, and multiple sources are reporting he's lose to signing a deal in the range of 5 years/$82.5 million

What aources do you have?

I have seen Ed Price Twitter about the physical, and that's it.

Rosenthal has an article up, which only states the same thing Price had (seems like just running with what Price had), and then he has a ton of speculation about all sorts of things after that, with no attribution to it whatsoever.

I'm not saying it's not true. Certainly a physical is an interesting step to be taking at this point and makes one wonder if the Sox are on the verge of signing Lackey. But just reading Rosenthal's article--and he's a guy I have a ton of respect for usually--I was just appalled at the complete lack of journalistic integrity.

So, yeah, definitely curious, Foz, if you have seen other sources besides Price's Twitter.

[SirFozzie]

Ken Rosenthal's as well.. but yeah..

Source: Lackey has BoSox physical; deal close? - MLB News - FOX Sports on MSN

Rosenthal updated it saying that he's heard it from a major league source.

The only way this makes sense to me, is if there's a trade of Bucholz in the works. I thought we had enough starters that we could roll the dice on younger pitchers at the 5 spot (or sign a 1 year bandaid).. never saw this coming.

Heh. a bit of screw your neighbor.. if the Sox do sign Lackey, they would give their first rounder (#29) to the Angels instead of the Jays (for Marco Scutaro), and the Jays would be bumped all the way down to #67

[SirFozzie]

Dola: ESPN.com has it too, but just credits it to a source:

Source: John Lackey taking physical for Red Sox - ESPN Boston

[stevew]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Ken Rosenthal's as well.. but yeah..

[url="http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/10523180/Source:-Lackey-has-BoSox-physical;-deal-close?"]
Heh. a bit of screw your neighbor.. if the Sox do sign Lackey, they would give their first rounder (#29) to the Angels instead of the Jays (for Marco Scutaro), and the Jays would be bumped all the way down to #67

LOL.
Much like Last year when AJ got bumped all the way to a 3rd.

[Chief Rum]

Yeah, that was the Rosenthal article I read. Only information being attributed to a source is the physical, which Price first broke. So the only point of evidence being thrown out there is the existence of a physical.

Now that is interesting news, like I said, and does lead one to wonder if the Red Sox are signing Lackey. But Rosenthal than goes on for a whole page's worth of speculation based entirely on this one bit of fact about the physical. He presumes the contract, speculates on what the Red Sox are saying to Bay's agent, gets in stuff on the Halladay thing, etc. I mean, he takes just an anonymous MLB source, and extrapolates it to an enormous extent, far beyond what is credible in general journalistically.

This makes me wonder two things--A) Does Rosenthal know more than he's saying, but isn't cleared by his source to speak about it yet, and is hiding behind "speculation"? Or B) is Rosenthal following the usual path of baseball writers during the hot steve season and trying to fill a column to a deadline because that's what he needs to do, or because he's under pressure to "beat" ESPN or Ed Price to a full story?

BTW, back to the physical, doesn't that usally follow signing the contract? Why would Lackey's agent agree to allow a physical before a contract was signed? He wouldn't. A physical is not required until a deal is done i.e. "pending physical", and there's a risk in allowing a physical before a deal is done (if something comes up, the player and agent lose leverage). But for this to have gotten to the physical stage--after a deal is signed--and no one to hear about the signing, I find that hard to believe. The agent would be talking. The Red Sox would be talking. All of the teams in on Lackey, their sources would have leaked the info when the agent inevitably brought the Red Sox proposed deal back to them to see if they want to top it. There's just so much about this that doesn't pass the "common sense" test.

[DeToxRox]

Interesting:

CSN's Jim Salisbury reports today that the Phillies are "actively talking" about a contract extension with Roy Halladay's agent, according to two baseball sources. One of those sources told Salisbury Doc is likely to take a physical with the Phillies this week. The Philadelphia Inquirer's Andy Martino adds that Halladay and his agent have checked into a Philadelphia-area hotel.

What's more, Salisbury writes of "indications that pitcher Cliff Lee could be traded." SI's Jon Heyman wrote today that Lee would take no discount to sign an extension. Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports write that "a three-team blockbuster that would send Halladay to the Phillies and Lee to another club is under discussion." They add that the Mariners have "contemplated dealing for Lee in recent days," but a straight Phillies-Jays trade is also possible. The writers say these complex talks involve the Phils receiving money to put toward Halladay's $15.75MM salary next year.

[McSweeny]

Done Deal

5 years 85 million for John Lackey according to John Heyman

nice

[DaddyTorgo]

that strikes me as pretty damn good value

seemingly means they'll be out of Bay/Holliday bidding and go with Beltre and then a platoon in LF i guess? Probably not the best solution - I understand the whole "a run saved is as good as a run scored" argument, but you can only have so many starting pitchers - at some point you still need to score runs, and Ortiz is still left without any protection in the lineup at the moment.

Unless it's a precursor to something else.