WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

bah, i'm not allowed to edit am i

nope

[claphamsa]

path said that if you dont vote you cant scan that night....

[Chief Rum]

All right, since path won't be helpful at all on the nature of the N0 votes, I say we throw them out completely. They have been proven to be statistically worthless at this point. There is something there messing with the results, and I have no idea if we'll be able to figure out what it is that would make them relevant again.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

And no lynch because.... ? I was under the impression that a lynch was good regardless of who we get rid of. No lynching Day 1 is like giving the wolves a free shot. IMO, shooting in the dark and failing is better than not shooting at all.

This point has been argued in several games. My feeling on it is that we rarely kill a wolf Day 1 -- in fact, we rarely come close. Also, in this game, each person is bringing us a scan that we can use as data, which will prove more useful as the game goes on.

[MikeVic]

I don't think a no lynch is good at all. If there are 5 or even just 4 wolves... there's as much of a chance to get a wolf as getting rid of a "useful" villager (100% seer, etc.)... I think we have to take that even shot.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I think he only posts from work, and maybe at the time of signing up didn't realize that the first day phase would coincide with a day he wouldn't be at work.. how often does that happen.

I hear ya...but that's on him, not us.

[path12]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

just for clarification is not voting considered a "no vote"


need to know for my end of game/start of next game rant

A player who does not vote during the day phase may not use any night actions that night. So not voting is not the same thing as a 'no lynch' vote.

[st.cronin]

You know its a strange game when Lathum is arguing for a no-lynch.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

You know its a strange game when Lathum is arguing for a no-lynch.

Is that good or bad?

[Greyroofoo]

it just seems lynching the first day with no real information gives us a 75% chance of hitting a villager (again assuming 5 wolves). Plus we could lose someone with a valuable role.

[Barkeep49]

What makes people think that we're going to have accurate information to base our decision on tomorrow? Absent that I am generally in favor of lynching once a day, every day.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

it just seems lynching the first day with no real information gives us a 75% chance of hitting a villager (again assuming 5 wolves). Plus we could lose someone with a valuable role.

Yes but our odds only go up slightly tomorrow when all that will have happened is that we have one less villager after the wolves kill somebody.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

I don't like being stalled with two votes on heinz, so just to encourage something..

vote render

This post was copied into this thread after being posted incorrectly in the money, money, money game.

~BK, YFWWM

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

What makes people think that we're going to have accurate information to base our decision on tomorrow? Absent that I am generally in favor of lynching once a day, every day.

Seriously, isn't *every* WW game that way? Day 2 is usually as much of a crapshoot as is Day 1.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Is that good or bad?

Well, its out of character for Lathum. I tend to agree with his thinking, though.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Yes but our odds only go up slightly tomorrow when all that will have happened is that we have one less villager after the wolves kill somebody.

Not entirely true. We will also have a full night of scans.

Not saying I disagree with your approach--I haven't decided. But even an innacurate night of scans is a significant set of data points that will give us soemthing at least.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Seriously, isn't *every* WW game that way? Day 2 is usually as much of a crapshoot as is Day 1.

I disagree. Day 2 is quite often an interesting day, both as it happens and in looking back. Day 1, is as you say, almost always completely worthless.

I will say a No Lynch today proabbly makes Day Two a little more like Day One (although it still not be the same).

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Seriously, isn't *every* WW game that way? Day 2 is usually as much of a crapshoot as is Day 1.

Almost always, which is why I normally advocate a D1 lynching. There have been a few exceptions for me where the numbers didn't support this, but I'm not sure this is one of those games.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

What makes people think that we're going to have accurate information to base our decision on tomorrow? Absent that I am generally in favor of lynching once a day, every day.

We're not going to have accurate info tomorrow. But the more info we have, the more we'll be able to judge the accuracy of what we have. I think that's what's behind nfg's push for clap -- we have three people scanning him, so if we kill clap, we can start to form a guess as to what their percentage is. I just think it'll be even better if we wait until Day 2 before going down that path12.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Seriously, isn't *every* WW game that way? Day 2 is usually as much of a crapshoot as is Day 1.

Depending on who the wolves kill we can get some info if they had gotten day 1 votes so day 2 can sometimes provide us with some info....although not a lot and in some cases depending on the target could give us nothing.

[Lathum]

As Cronin pointed out I am as big a supporter as there can be about having lynches everyday, I just think this game is the rare exception where it is more prudent to wait an extra day.

VOTE NO LYNCH

[path12]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I just think it'll be even better if we wait until Day 2 before going down that path12.

OK, I LOL'd.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

We're not going to have accurate info tomorrow. But the more info we have, the more we'll be able to judge the accuracy of what we have. I think that's what's behind nfg's push for clap -- we have three people scanning him, so if we kill clap, we can start to form a guess as to what their percentage is. I just think it'll be even better if we wait until Day 2 before going down that path12.

LOL

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by path12

OK, I LOL'd.

Yes, me too

[Lathum]

zing!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Passacaglia]

Thank you, I'm here all week (uh, as long as no one kills me)!

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

We're not going to have accurate info tomorrow. But the more info we have, the more we'll be able to judge the accuracy of what we have. I think that's what's behind nfg's push for clap -- we have three people scanning him, so if we kill clap, we can start to form a guess as to what their percentage is. I just think it'll be even better if we wait until Day 2 before going down that path12.

This is a bad idea!

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

My proposed scanning groups if we want to go this route
This was just done alphabetically

Group - 1
Barkeep49
Bask16
Chief Rum
claphamsa
DodgerChick

Group - 2
Greyroofoo
jeheinz72
Lathum
mauboy1
MikeVic

Group - 3
Mr Wednesday
nfg22
ntndeacon
oliegirl
Passacaglia

Group - 4
Pumpy Tudors
RenderR
saldana
SnDvls
st cronin
The Jackal

So let me get this straight, several of us are gonna scan ppl off of Group 1 and others off of Group 2?

I'm pretty much sticking with my vote, seems like No Lynch will win out anyway so my vote is meaningless.

[path12]

Current vote totals through post 323:

No Lynch 4 -- Passacaglia(283), Greyroofoo(287), The Jackal(289), Lathum(321)
jeheinz72 2 -- Dodgerchick(202), Pumpy Tudors(207)
The Jackal 1 -- claphamsa(91)
RendeR 1 -- st.cronin(210)
nfg22 1 -- Barkeep49(239)

Not voted: RendeR, Chief Rum, mauboy1, jeheinz72, ntndeacon, nfg22, oliegirl, saldana, MikeVic, SnDvls, Bsak16, Mr. Wednesday

Your friendly yet aging GM would like to remind you to bold your vote so his failing eyesight doesn't miss anything. Thanks!

[Lathum]

I am fine with being scanned tonight btw.

[claphamsa]

I went running and 20 degrees melted away. brrr

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

So let me get this straight, several of us are gonna scan ppl off of Group 1 and others off of Group 2?

I'm pretty much sticking with my vote, seems like No Lynch will win out anyway so my vote is meaningless.

I thought maybe everyone in each group scans other people in the same group as them?

[Dr. Sak]

Yeah the person I want to scan is in my group.

[ntndeacon]

Vote nfg

[ntndeacon]

I don't think we should be focusing on either of the members that has 3 views on them. 3 villager views holds up for night 0 I think.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

I don't think we should be focusing on either of the members that has 3 views on them. 3 villager views holds up for night 0 I think.

Except that we have 0 wolf results for N-0, making me suspicious of the entire N-0 project.

[Dr. Sak]

I really don't think we should be voting for anyone who has had more than 1 scan and has come up villager. Those people should be saved scanned by more people the subsequent night.

[MikeVic]

Here's a thought, not sure how good.

What if everyone scans the person they've scanned night 0? If we get different results, that could help to determine who's accurate or not? I don't know...

[RendeR]

Hi folks. You already have my N-0 info. I will be out all night and unable to be around at deadline (got a hot date!!) So I'm going to throw a vote out now and let it ride, its a day 1 vote without much to go on so don't read too much into it:

Lathum is really not acting like Lathum thus far. I would vote Cronin, but I have nothing but my own personal hatred of his wolfishness to go on, lathum is just not being hismelf and that always makes me suspicious.


VOTE LATHUM

[saldana]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

path said that if you dont vote you cant scan that night....

where the hell did it say that?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Here's a thought, not sure how good.

What if everyone scans the person they've scanned night 0? If we get different results, that could help to determine who's accurate or not? I don't know...

I thought about that, but I'm not sure how much it will tell us. Plus, it'll either tell us if we're really right or really wrong, compared to 50/50 -- but not right vs. wrong

[Passacaglia]

Did I miss where pumpy gave his scan?

[nfg22]

I still think we should vote for the person with th most scans. This game will come down to figuring out who has what oercentages and as afst as we can. If we can find 2-3 people that have either 75+ or 25 and below we can win.

As for scanning. We should either all scan one person or four. One person would give us alot of data, but four people would help us find a wolf quicker.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Here's a thought, not sure how good.

What if everyone scans the person they've scanned night 0? If we get different results, that could help to determine who's accurate or not? I don't know...

Two things wrong with this.

1) It doesnt give us a big enough saple size on any one person.
2) The first night results are in doubt.

[nfg22]

triple dola. The reason why we should kill someone, and someone with the most scans is because we cant make any progress till we see if a scan was right or wrong. Even if we had some scans come up as wolf, we have no reason to believe it. We need to kill someone, preferable with alot of scans.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by nfg22

triple dola. The reason why we should kill someone, and someone with the most scans is because we cant make any progress till we see if a scan was right or wrong. Even if we had some scans come up as wolf, we have no reason to believe it. We need to kill someone, preferable with alot of scans.

Whos to say the wolfs arent lying with their scans and just piled on someone they wanted killed.

[nfg22]

One...because they dont neccesarily know eachother...Two...because there has only been one more vote added to a person at most since I brought this idea up. Three...No one listens to me, why would the wolves?

[st.cronin]

nfg, what do you make of the fact that there are zero publicized n-0 scans that came up as wolf?

[nfg22]

Personally? I think that N-0 no one got anything but student in their scans. Hmm...I dont know if you were making this point but if that is true it is better not to lynch anyone...I dont know what to do.

[Greyroofoo]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

So let me get this straight, several of us are gonna scan ppl off of Group 1 and others off of Group 2?

If you have a better suggestion I'm all ears, I'm just throwing this out here so we have some kind of plan.

I chose the groups in alphabetical order, I chose the targets because they the first 4 in the sign up list from page 1.

I'm definitely open to improvements on how we should do this.