Werewolf CXII - The Red Death - GAME OVER - Page 7

The Jackal · 03-22-2010, 10:33 PM

was called away the past few hours, catching up

The Jackal · 03-22-2010, 10:51 PM

Well, at least EF wasn't someone important, and we should have some solid history from it. Abe's post at the deadline (doing math) leads me to believe we might have some vote manipulation roles at play, or something along those lines that isn't public info. Just something to consider going forwards.

Barkeep49 · 03-22-2010, 11:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well, at least EF wasn't someone important, and we should have some solid history from it. Abe's post at the deadline (doing math) leads me to believe we might have some vote manipulation roles at play, or something along those lines that isn't public info. Just something to consider going forwards.

Given past Abe roles I think this is very likely as well.

dubb93 · 03-22-2010, 11:10 PM

Bah! I hate D1

Abe Sargent · 03-23-2010, 01:06 AM

Processing Night Actions

Abe Sargent · 03-23-2010, 01:19 AM

As part of the evening, i did send out items that were sent to me in pms during the day, so if you sent me a pm at 4 in teh afternoon, I went ahead and passed it out, even if you did not technically send it out during the night, because I am a nice GM.

Results soon!

Abe Sargent · 03-23-2010, 01:28 AM

That was much quieter than many nights around here. No screams. No shouts. No sound of blade on blade or gun fire. The dawn breaks eerily.

The colors in the sky are odd. Unnatural. Unholy.

A quick head check shows that all of you made it through the night. What happened?

Night One has ended. Day Two has begun and will end at 10 pm EST Tuesday night.

dubb93 · 03-23-2010, 01:30 AM

My money is on a conversion. I'm off to bed, this is as late as I can stay up. See you guys tomorrow afternoon.

Danny · 03-23-2010, 01:40 AM

Sorry guys, I lied down for a minute and passed out and just now woke up.

The Jackal · 03-23-2010, 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dubb93

My money is on a conversion. I'm off to bed, this is as late as I can stay up. See you guys tomorrow afternoon.

Yeah, much too ominous a tone for a BG block or a conversion resist methinks.

ntndeacon · 03-23-2010, 01:47 AM

I kinda doubt we see to many night kills until conversion oppurtunities die out

CrimsonFox · 03-23-2010, 02:03 AM

In a totally unWWrelated post, YAY, I FINALLY made the playoffs for the first time since joining the FOOL baseball league here.

FOOL 2061 Regular Season Thread - Front Office Football Central

Abe Sargent · 03-23-2010, 02:27 AM

Night all. Catch you in the morning!

Chief Rum · 03-23-2010, 02:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Sorry guys, I lied

Noted.

Chief Rum · 03-23-2010, 02:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

In a totally unWWrelated post, YAY, I FINALLY made the playoffs for the first time since joining the FOOL baseball league here.

FOOL 2061 Regular Season Thread - Front Office Football Central

In a totally unWWrelated post but completely related to the above post, I did not make the playoffs in same said baseball league.

Hope you represent well, Crimson Fox.

Darth Vilus · 03-23-2010, 03:34 AM

well that wasn't the worst day ever i suppose. Lynched a vanilla villager, ok, and most likely had some kind of conversion, sucks but not unexpected. We lost the colt though.

Anyone out there watch Supernatural on the CW? The Colt reminded me of it lol.

CrimsonFox · 03-23-2010, 04:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

In a totally unWWrelated post but completely related to the above post, I did not make the playoffs in same said baseball league.

Hope you represent well, Crimson Fox.

Yeah what's up with that? Crazy backwards years. You're ALWAYS in the playoffs. You won the whole dance last year!

Thomkal · 03-23-2010, 07:47 AM

well pretty much have to figure that a conversion took place don't we given the rule change? That sucks but we shall persevere.

I will be voting for one of the EagleFan voters today unless someone observed something last night. I think it was a Lightbringer vs Lightbringer yesterday, but there had to be some Servants voting for them.

Oh and I'm the one that passed the Jar.

henry296 · 03-23-2010, 07:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by henry296

I have an interesting theory about my item. I'll probably pass it tonight to test it.

My theory was wrong as I thought by passsing my item, it might be give me a role. I passed the item and since I did get any PMs last night, that appears to be wrong, so I'm still just a vanilla villager.

Still very confused about what my item will do. Maybe the person who got it will understand it better than me.

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2010, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal

well pretty much have to figure that a conversion took place don't we given the rule change? That sucks but we shall persevere.

I will be voting for one of the EagleFan voters today unless someone observed something last night. I think it was a Lightbringer vs Lightbringer yesterday, but there had to be some Servants voting for them.

Oh and I'm the one that passed the Jar.

This confuses me. If it's Good vs Good then why is an evil person more likely to be on EF than someone else? And if it was Good vs Good aren't the evil people more likely to be spread out? Isn't that how it's done?

Chief Rum · 03-23-2010, 08:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

You check his things and confiscate a Colt Peacemaker as evidence. He appears to have been a normal Lightbringer, with no special abilities.

Are we so sure the Colt is lost? The above statement in yesterdaay's lynch writeup doesn't necessarily say it's gone forever. In fact, it's possible that "confiscate as evidence" means it's with the Sheriff now.

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2010, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Are we so sure the Colt is lost? The above statement in yesterdaay's lynch writeup doesn't necessarily say it's gone forever. In fact, it's possible that "confiscate as evidence" means it's with the Sheriff now.

This seems like a real stretch.

Abe Sargent · 03-23-2010, 08:44 AM

Morning All

Thomkal · 03-23-2010, 08:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

This confuses me. If it's Good vs Good then why is an evil person more likely to be on EF than someone else? And if it was Good vs Good aren't the evil people more likely to be spread out? Isn't that how it's done?

My point was that even if it was Good vs Good, wolves likely had to be on EagleFan last night-usually in a Good vs Good on Day 1, wolves still try to take out who they want if they can get away with it. How many people ended up with votes on them besides EF and NTN? I can't remember as i post this, I'll have to go look it up.

Thomkal · 03-23-2010, 08:46 AM

Morning oh most wonderful GM.

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2010, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal

My point was that even if it was Good vs Good, wolves likely had to be on EagleFan last night-usually in a Good vs Good on Day 1, wolves still try to take out who they want if they can get away with it. How many people ended up with votes on them besides EF and NTN? I can't remember as i post this, I'll have to go look it up.

So you are suggesting there was a greater concentration of wolves on EF than their overall concentration in the game?

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2010, 08:51 AM

Assuming Crimson Fox's tally was correct, here is the final vote count:

EagleFan 7 - J23 (129), Telle (170), hoopsguy (189), BarKeep49 (201), dubb93 (205), Raiders Army (215), KWhit (248)
ntndeacon 6 - EagleFan (131), The Jackal (151), PurdueBrad (191), Thomkal (214) Autumn (232) Lathum (233)
J23 2 - ntndeacon (184), Chief Rum (198)
Telle 2 - CrimsonFox (185), henry296 (197)
PurdueBrad 1 - Poli (93)
Autumn 1 - Darth Vilus (178)

Thomkal · 03-23-2010, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

As of 234:

EagleFan 6 - J23 (129), Telle (170), hoopsguy (189), BarKeep49 (201), dubb93 (205), Raiders Army (215)
ntndeacon 6 - EagleFan (131), The Jackal (151), PurdueBrad (191), Thomkal (214) Autumn (232) Lathum (233)
J23 2 - ntndeacon (184), Chief Rum (198)
Telle 2 - CrimsonFox (185), henry296 (197)
PurdueBrad 1 - Poli (93)
Autumn 1 - Darth Vilus (178)

This is the last vote count I can find-there was no official count? KWhit also voted for EagleFan which broke the tie.

So there's four others besides NTN and EF, which is more than I thought. I will be very shocked if there's no Servants voting for EF last night despite the votes being spread out. Hence my reasoning for likely voting for one of them today.

Thomkal · 03-23-2010, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So you are suggesting there was a greater concentration of wolves on EF than their overall concentration in the game?

I'm saying there could be. I'm saying the likelihood of a wolf being on any one that was voted for yesterday is highest with the people voting for EagleFan in my opinion. Your opinion of course may vary.

Thomkal · 03-23-2010, 08:54 AM

I'm off to breakfast, we can talk more about this later Barkeep if you want.

PurdueBrad · 03-23-2010, 09:20 AM

Hey guys, just checking in to say that I'm taking my little guy to Chuck E. Cheese this morning so I won't be on until the afternoon again. My apologies.

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2010, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Hey guys, just checking in to say ~~that I'm taking my little guy to Chuck E. Cheese~~ I'm sacrificing my own sanity for the enjoyment of my child this morning so I won't be on until the afternoon again. My apologies.

Fixed.

PurdueBrad · 03-23-2010, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Fixed.

HA, thanks. Yeah, first time going for him and for me since being 8 probably and it was still called Showbiz Pizza. Hopefully this is fun for him because he's hit that stage where when we set him down, he just runs (well, stumbles quickly and without purpose) everywhere. Wish me luck...

Lathum · 03-23-2010, 09:34 AM

I think there may be some value in an NTN lynch today. The vote was very close and with EF being a villager, if NTN is a wolf it may tell us something about the voters on each side.

I would also look Poli's direction for obvious reasons.

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2010, 09:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think there may be some value in an NTN lynch today. The vote was very close and with EF being a villager, if NTN is a wolf it may tell us something about the voters on each side.

I would also look Poli's direction for obvious reasons.

I'm new around here. What are those obvious reasons?

hoopsguy · 03-23-2010, 09:37 AM

Just an FYI, this will likely be my only post from work today. I'll be online later this evening.

No events of any sort to report from last night.

Thomkal · 03-23-2010, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think there may be some value in an NTN lynch today. The vote was very close and with EF being a villager, if NTN is a wolf it may tell us something about the voters on each side.

I would also look Poli's direction for obvious reasons.

I think there is some merit there Lathum, as there usually is on a day 1 two players up for the lynch vote. Then we have to look at KWhit for being the deciding vote. And Raiders Army for making it a 6-4 vote on EF. I also feel slightly better about you and Autumn as you were both late votes on NTN to tie the vote count. I can't quite believe the wolves would risk losing one of their own on day 1 when Eaglefan, a non-wolf, was in the lead by 2 late. (correct me if I'm wrong on this please).

KWhit · 03-23-2010, 10:03 AM

Now why would a wolf wait until the end of the day and be the last vote on a lynched villager? I really hope there is no witch hunt on me for being the deciding vote.

I guess if ntn came up as a wolf it would be somewhat logical to look my way, but even then a wolf would likely have put his vote on EF much earlier in the day.

KWhit · 03-23-2010, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal

well pretty much have to figure that a conversion took place don't we given the rule change? That sucks but we shall persevere.

I will be voting for one of the EagleFan voters today unless someone observed something last night. I think it was a Lightbringer vs Lightbringer yesterday, but there had to be some Servants voting for them.

Oh and I'm the one that passed the Jar.

Any information about the Jar? Did you know what it did?

J23 · 03-23-2010, 10:23 AM

How much disclosure about items do we really want to get into here? I assume most of us passed them to roles (if we passed them), so do we want to disclose what they were to the wolves among us?

I passed my item along last night to a role that it affected, but the name is straightforward enough that I'd prefer not to give it out. (Maybe I'm overly paranoid, but I don't even want to give out the initials

)

J23 · 03-23-2010, 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thomkal

well pretty much have to figure that a conversion took place don't we given the rule change? That sucks but we shall persevere.

I'm guessing that there weren't many wolves at all when the game started but their number can build fairly quickly through conversions (until day4 at least).

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2010, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by J23

I'm guessing that there weren't many wolves at all when the game started but their number can build fairly quickly through conversions (until day4 at least).

I was thinking about this too. How many wolves do we think started the game? I'm thinking 3, so with the conversion last night we'd be at 4. Thoughts?

Autumn · 03-23-2010, 10:32 AM

My guess would be that there may have been only one, possibly two wolves at the outset, who probably couldn't talk to each other if there were more than one. They have four nights to build their numbers and hope they don't target an uncorruptible or deadly role. Then we'll start seeing some kills. There's probably as much complication on the wolf side as on ours - perhaps different methods to convert, possibly some sort of alpha wolf structure.

Unless some knowledge comes out I'm just going to stick with NTN. No reason other than that finding out if he's good or bad will help us with vote history. And that I don't have any reason to suspect anyone more than anyone else at this moment.

VOTE NTNDEACON

Autumn · 03-23-2010, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I was thinking about this too. How many wolves do we think started the game? I'm thinking 3, so with the conversion last night we'd be at 4. Thoughts?

I think the rules make it fairly clear that there will be multiple conversions. See my post above, I'm guessing that most of the wolves will be converted rather than born.

Barkeep49 · 03-23-2010, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think the rules make it fairly clear that there will be multiple conversions. See my post above, I'm guessing that most of the wolves will be converted rather than born.

I think your theory has a lot of merit.

Thomkal · 03-23-2010, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Any information about the Jar? Did you know what it did?

I knew nothing about the Jug other than its name. I think its a helpful/protection type item from the name, but no way of knowing for sure of course.

Thomkal · 03-23-2010, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I was thinking about this too. How many wolves do we think started the game? I'm thinking 3, so with the conversion last night we'd be at 4. Thoughts?

I agree Barkeep, 3 to start and most likely four now.

Thomkal · 03-23-2010, 10:43 AM

To follow up on my comment I think three because I think conversion is likely a percentage chance, perhaps decreasing till night 4, so theoretically before last night they could have tried to convert and get nobody.

J23 · 03-23-2010, 10:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Assuming Crimson Fox's tally was correct, here is the final vote count:

EagleFan 7 - J23 (129), Telle (170), hoopsguy (189), BarKeep49 (201), dubb93 (205), Raiders Army (215), KWhit (248)
ntndeacon 6 - EagleFan (131), The Jackal (151), PurdueBrad (191), Thomkal (214) Autumn (232) Lathum (233)
J23 2 - ntndeacon (184), Chief Rum (198)
Telle 2 - CrimsonFox (185), henry296 (197)
PurdueBrad 1 - Poli (93)
Autumn 1 - Darth Vilus (178)

Odds are we had villager/villager yesterday in the runoff.
assuming 2 wolves: 17/19 * 16/18 = 80%
assuming 3 wolves: 16/19 * 15/18 = 70%
assuming 4 wolves: 15/19 * 14/18 = 61%

(Hopefully my math is correct there. Note that I removed 1 villager from the pool of people since the villagers among us all know we are a villager)

If a conversion happened last night, I don't really think ntn would have been targeted, so unless he was a wolf to begin with, I doubt he's a wolf now.

Is the hope in lynching ntn that if he's a wolf, we can spot other wolves trying to protect him? Or is there something that I'm missing that we learn if he ends up as a villager?

Lathum · 03-23-2010, 10:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I'm new around here. What are those obvious reasons?

OK, this has been discusses ad nausea so I am going to give you the watered down version, if you want more discussion on it I'll direct you to the discussion of it in other games.

Basically Poli's new way of voting D1 is to automatically vote for the first person who signed up for the game. Some of us, myself and KWhit probably being the most vocal, think this is a bunk way to vote since it removes any thought process or motivation from his D1 vote, rendering the analysis of it useless later in the game.

Poli disagrees with us and sees no reason for getting scrutiny based on his predetermined vote.

03-23-2010, 01:06 AM	#305
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	Processing Night Actions __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

03-23-2010, 01:19 AM	#306
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	As part of the evening, i did send out items that were sent to me in pms during the day, so if you sent me a pm at 4 in teh afternoon, I went ahead and passed it out, even if you did not technically send it out during the night, because I am a nice GM. Results soon! __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

03-23-2010, 01:28 AM	#307
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	That was much quieter than many nights around here. No screams. No shouts. No sound of blade on blade or gun fire. The dawn breaks eerily. The colors in the sky are odd. Unnatural. Unholy. A quick head check shows that all of you made it through the night. What happened? Night One has ended. Day Two has begun and will end at 10 pm EST Tuesday night. __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

03-23-2010, 02:27 AM	#313
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	Night all. Catch you in the morning! __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

03-23-2010, 03:34 AM	#316
Darth Vilus College Benchwarmer Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: SoCal	well that wasn't the worst day ever i suppose. Lynched a vanilla villager, ok, and most likely had some kind of conversion, sucks but not unexpected. We lost the colt though. Anyone out there watch Supernatural on the CW? The Colt reminded me of it lol. __________________ "Two there should be; no more, no less. One to embody power, the other to crave it." ―Darth Bane "Tell me what you regard as your greatest strength, so I will know how best to undermine you; tell me of your greatest fear, so I will know which I must force you to face; tell me what you cherish most, so I will know what to take from you; and tell me what you crave, so that I might deny you…" ―Darth Plagueis the Wise

03-22-2010, 10:33 PM	#301
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	was called away the past few hours, catching up

03-22-2010, 10:51 PM	#302
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Well, at least EF wasn't someone important, and we should have some solid history from it. Abe's post at the deadline (doing math) leads me to believe we might have some vote manipulation roles at play, or something along those lines that isn't public info. Just something to consider going forwards.

03-23-2010, 01:40 AM	#309
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Sorry guys, I lied down for a minute and passed out and just now woke up.

03-23-2010, 01:47 AM	#311
ntndeacon Pro Starter Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Alabama	I kinda doubt we see to many night kills until conversion oppurtunities die out

03-23-2010, 02:03 AM	#312
CrimsonFox Head Coach Join Date: Dec 2009	In a totally unWWrelated post, YAY, I FINALLY made the playoffs for the first time since joining the FOOL baseball league here. FOOL 2061 Regular Season Thread - Front Office Football Central

03-23-2010, 07:47 AM	#318
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	well pretty much have to figure that a conversion took place don't we given the rule change? That sucks but we shall persevere. I will be voting for one of the EagleFan voters today unless someone observed something last night. I think it was a Lightbringer vs Lightbringer yesterday, but there had to be some Servants voting for them. Oh and I'm the one that passed the Jar.

03-23-2010, 08:44 AM	#323
Abe Sargent Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Catonsville, MD	Morning All __________________ Check out my two current weekly Magic columns! https://www.coolstuffinc.com/a/?action=search&page=1&author[]=Abe%20Sargent

03-23-2010, 08:46 AM	#325
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	Morning oh most wonderful GM.

03-23-2010, 08:51 AM	#327
Barkeep49 Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: Not too far away	Assuming Crimson Fox's tally was correct, here is the final vote count: EagleFan 7 - J23 (129), Telle (170), hoopsguy (189), BarKeep49 (201), dubb93 (205), Raiders Army (215), KWhit (248) ntndeacon 6 - EagleFan (131), The Jackal (151), PurdueBrad (191), Thomkal (214) Autumn (232) Lathum (233) J23 2 - ntndeacon (184), Chief Rum (198) Telle 2 - CrimsonFox (185), henry296 (197) PurdueBrad 1 - Poli (93) Autumn 1 - Darth Vilus (178)

03-23-2010, 08:54 AM	#330
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	I'm off to breakfast, we can talk more about this later Barkeep if you want.

03-23-2010, 09:20 AM	#331
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Hey guys, just checking in to say that I'm taking my little guy to Chuck E. Cheese this morning so I won't be on until the afternoon again. My apologies.

03-23-2010, 09:34 AM	#334
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I think there may be some value in an NTN lynch today. The vote was very close and with EF being a villager, if NTN is a wolf it may tell us something about the voters on each side. I would also look Poli's direction for obvious reasons.

03-23-2010, 09:37 AM	#336
hoopsguy General Manager Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago	Just an FYI, this will likely be my only post from work today. I'll be online later this evening. No events of any sort to report from last night.

03-23-2010, 10:03 AM	#338
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Now why would a wolf wait until the end of the day and be the last vote on a lynched villager? I really hope there is no witch hunt on me for being the deciding vote. I guess if ntn came up as a wolf it would be somewhat logical to look my way, but even then a wolf would likely have put his vote on EF much earlier in the day.

03-23-2010, 10:23 AM	#340
J23 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jul 2009	How much disclosure about items do we really want to get into here? I assume most of us passed them to roles (if we passed them), so do we want to disclose what they were to the wolves among us? I passed my item along last night to a role that it affected, but the name is straightforward enough that I'd prefer not to give it out. (Maybe I'm overly paranoid, but I don't even want to give out the initials )

03-23-2010, 10:32 AM	#343
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	My guess would be that there may have been only one, possibly two wolves at the outset, who probably couldn't talk to each other if there were more than one. They have four nights to build their numbers and hope they don't target an uncorruptible or deadly role. Then we'll start seeing some kills. There's probably as much complication on the wolf side as on ours - perhaps different methods to convert, possibly some sort of alpha wolf structure. Unless some knowledge comes out I'm just going to stick with NTN. No reason other than that finding out if he's good or bad will help us with vote history. And that I don't have any reason to suspect anyone more than anyone else at this moment. VOTE NTNDEACON

03-23-2010, 10:43 AM	#348
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	To follow up on my comment I think three because I think conversion is likely a percentage chance, perhaps decreasing till night 4, so theoretically before last night they could have tried to convert and get nobody.

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