WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[MartinD]

Looks like there's been quite a bit going on - will take a wee while to catch up...

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

False seer doesn't get a reverse scan. False seer gets a random result. There is a pretty good chance they both get the same result and it tells us nothing.

ok, that is a small hole in my plan then...i just assumed fake seer=opposite scan

still in all, the plan can be reworked slightly and still be efficient.

[Barkeep49]

As of 302:
Lynch:
Dubb – EF (131), Racer (248)
Lerriuqs – USFL (246), DT (249)
DT – Lerriuqs (250),


Believing:
Hoops as seer – dubb (121), Purdue (220), DT (222)
CR as seer – Racer (248), Telle (286),
PB as BG – Lerriuqs (251), EF (254), Danny (279), USFL (285), dubb (299)
DT as Seer – Lathum (271)

[Telle]

I'm leaving work shortly and want to get a vote in just in case I can't get on later.

VOTE LERRIUQS

I think his whole cultist plan is a bit sketchy and could be dangerous. Not to mention he just might be the real cultist.

[Danny]

I'm also not crazy about a Lerriuqs lynch. That just seems like an odd play from him as a wolf or cultist. Based on the last game where he played ultra conservative as the cultist I don't see it.

[Schmidty]

I'm going to go mow the lawn with my new mower, and I'm already tired, so I'm going to throw this out there FOR NO ACTUAL REASON, so that I have a vote in no matter what. I'll probably be around, so it could easily change:

Vote Martin

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I'm going to go mow the lawn with my new mower, and I'm already tired, so I'm going to throw this out there FOR NO ACTUAL REASON, so that I have a vote in no matter what. I'll probably be around, so it could easily change:

Vote Martin

Oops

Vote Martin

[hoopsguy]

[quote=Danny;2034244]As a bit more reasoning, I believe going with a seer who we have no idea is trustworthy will potentially cause us to waste lynched and days at a time confirming scans, lynching believed seers and all in all lead to too much time wasting. When there is someone we feel pretty good about trusting, then I think we can believe a seer.[/quote]

How do you propose we get that "pretty good about trusting" person? Wait until we lynch a wolf and use vote history? Wait for the real seer to publish a COT (surely you can see why this would not work)? Wait for the bodyguard to reveal that he blocked an attack on a player?

I'm curious how you think we will find this trustworthy villager and how long you think it will take to do so.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Danny

I will not be voting for Dubb, no one else should be either. If he wasn't really the Duke, the real one would come out and nail us a wolf. There would be no reason not to as an unbelieved Duke really isn't an all that desirable target for the wolves. We're not talking about drawing out an early seer reveal here, there's no reason for Dubb to fake reveal.

Yeah, I 100% agree with this.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Hell, if it makes you feel any better have our new believed seer scan me tonight since he will be able to post day by day. That way we can get another villager role believed tomarrow.

Originally Posted by dubb93

Believe PB as BG

For what it is worth, if I was elected seer I probably be scanning you on N1 and publishing that result. Only reason I would hedge on it is that putting you on a trusted villager list would probably accelerate your own death at night, which I would not necessarily want. That is the risk-reward I've been pondering today while sitting in meetings and not being able to post in the thread.

But you are going with the BG plan as well. Why do you feel it is more compelling than the seer plan for D1?

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by saldana

ok, that is a small hole in my plan then...i just assumed fake seer=opposite scan

still in all, the plan can be reworked slightly and still be efficient.

Agreed.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Danny

I will not be voting for Dubb, no one else should be either. If he wasn't really the Duke, the real one would come out and nail us a wolf. There would be no reason not to as an unbelieved Duke really isn't an all that desirable target for the wolves. We're not talking about drawing out an early seer reveal here, there's no reason for Dubb to fake reveal.

That is pretty sound logic as the village doesn't really have much to gain by having two dukes so a vanilla villager would be stupid to claim it.

unvote Dubb
vote DaddyTorgo


Because he posted 10 times in a row. In all seriousness, I don't really get the logic behind his vote so that just as good as any to vote for someone on day one.

[Danny]

[quote=hoopsguy;2034281]

Originally Posted by Danny

As a bit more reasoning, I believe going with a seer who we have no idea is trustworthy will potentially cause us to waste lynched and days at a time confirming scans, lynching believed seers and all in all lead to too much time wasting. When there is someone we feel pretty good about trusting, then I think we can believe a seer.[/quote]

How do you propose we get that "pretty good about trusting" person? Wait until we lynch a wolf and use vote history? Wait for the real seer to publish a COT (surely you can see why this would not work)? Wait for the bodyguard to reveal that he blocked an attack on a player?

I'm curious how you think we will find this trustworthy villager and how long you think it will take to do so.

Quite possible until we do one of those things. At this point I would say I trust Dubb to the point of supporting him as the seer. I'm sure there will be other opportunities to have a trusted person before long. Right now there are other roles to believe that will help us a lot outside of a seer with less risk and less possible time wasting.

[Tyrith]

Sigh, I feel I have no choice at this point. It's either going with the plan or going against the man that first put forth the plan, and I think the plan is fundamentally sound.

BELIEVE HOOPS AS SEER

[MartinD]

A thought - 40% of votes are required to be believed. We have 17 players at the moment, so 7 votes are needed as a minimum (40% of 17 is 6.8, and need to round up to have 'at least 40%').

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Sigh, I feel I have no choice at this point. It's either going with the plan or going against the man that first put forth the plan, and I think the plan is fundamentally sound.

BELIEVE HOOPS AS SEER

If people believe this is a strong plan I do support Hoops as the candidate. I think going with the BG is a much better idea right now though.

[Racer]

Also, I'm weary of Hoops, but ChiefRum has no shot of getting believed right now and I really prefer getting a 2nd seer on day one over a 2nd bodyguard. As long as people don't follow the believed seer like blind sheep, they are equal risk with the seer having a much higher reward.

So,

Unbelieve ChiefRum as Seer
Believe Hoopsguy as Seer

More of two horse race now between PurdueBrad and Hoopsguy.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

For what it is worth, if I was elected seer I probably be scanning you on N1 and publishing that result. Only reason I would hedge on it is that putting you on a trusted villager list would probably accelerate your own death at night, which I would not necessarily want. That is the risk-reward I've been pondering today while sitting in meetings and not being able to post in the thread.

But you are going with the BG plan as well. Why do you feel it is more compelling than the seer plan for D1?

If I am not mistaken we are allowed to believe 2 people every day. I already believed you earlier in the day. I don't think the BG plan is any better then the seer plan, I just want to put my effort towards making sure we get either a BG or a seer today.

[Danny]

Is it two people everyday? Also, can we believe more than one person for a role?

[MartinD]

Another thought - what happens if the false seer scans the same person twice? The rules suggest that the false seer's results are random, so it might be possible to get different results for the same person.

(Not sure how much practical use this is - am having a closer look at the rules post, and doing the forum equivalent of thinking out loud...)

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Danny

Also, can we believe more than one person for a role?

The answer to this is no as I reread the rules

[Danny]

If we can believe two people a day then I think believing Hoops and PB as the seer/BG would be fine.

[PurdueBrad]

I've been around and I don't really know how to comment. I don't like the whole "self-voting/self-promoting" thing so I'll be leaving my belief where it is unless I need to move it because we don't have 40% somewhere. A two horse race between me and Hoops isn't a bad idea, especially since it is basically a race between the two different ideas.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

If we can believe two people a day then I think believing Hoops and PB as the seer/BG would be fine.

We can't, highest wins or a tie really screws us because nobody wins.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

I will not be voting for Dubb, no one else should be either. If he wasn't really the Duke, the real one would come out and nail us a wolf. There would be no reason not to as an unbelieved Duke really isn't an all that desirable target for the wolves. We're not talking about drawing out an early seer reveal here, there's no reason for Dubb to fake reveal.

Incorrect.

Duke
Starting: Breaks ties.
If Believed: Will gain the ability to change the result of the lynch one time. They may either cause a person to be lynched or cause a no-lynch.

The real duke could only break ties to start - now he could create a showdown against Dubb if Dubb was not the duke, but that may not be high value in a game where both villagers and wolves have legitimate reasons to try and seize additional power for their teams.

[Danny]

Ok, then I again go back to strongly suggesting we go with the BG first.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Incorrect.



The real duke could only break ties to start - now he could create a showdown against Dubb if Dubb was not the duke, but that may not be high value in a game where both villagers and wolves have legitimate reasons to try and seize additional power for their teams.

Actually just interpreted differently, the real one would nail us a wolf by revealing and having us lynch Dubb, not by using their power. I stand by that statement 100%. If Dubb really wasn't the duke, the real one would have no reason not to come out and have us lynch Dubb.

[Danny]

And if it turned out to be a case of Dubb lying as a villager about really being the duke then he deserves to die

[hoopsguy]

Shrug - for what it is worth I thought about suggesting I'm the duke because I've never had the role (in a true sense, had a really weird duke role in one of Abe's games) and it is right there for the taking.

I wouldn't have it as a hanging offense. The ruleset is practically begging for people to be creative with their play.

[dubb93]

re-reading the rules am I wrong that I am allowed to believe two people a day. I swear I saw it in there, now I can't seem to find it again.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

I will not be voting for Dubb, no one else should be either. If he wasn't really the Duke, the real one would come out and nail us a wolf. There would be no reason not to as an unbelieved Duke really isn't an all that desirable target for the wolves. We're not talking about drawing out an early seer reveal here, there's no reason for Dubb to fake reveal.

Don't the wolves know if a role is not used? Just something to think about. If he really is the duke he would have nothing to worry about with my tie vote theory.

[MartinD]

Having looked at the various discussions about the best ways to use the 'believe {person} is {role}' option, believing someone is the bodyguard looks like the low-risk option - OK, so the reward isn't as good as it would be with other roles (notably the seer or the brutal wolf), but it seems to me that there's very little downside, as a wolf bodyguard doesn't really have much power. While it would be very useful to have a believed seer, there's a pretty significant risk of a wolf ending up as the believed seer.

Believe PB as the bodyguard

An aside - looking more closely at the brutal wolf role: If someone is believed as the brutal wolf, my understanding is that a roled person on the other side is automatically killed - if the role/side of the person who gets killed is revealed, we get to know what side the person claiming 'brutal wolf' is on. At this point in the game, there doesn't appear to be much benefit to the wolves for a wolf to claim this role - that wolf is effectively 'outed' for the loss of one of the roled villagers. As it's a random roled player that's killed, there's a good chance that it would be one of the minor villager roles rather than the more important ones (like the seer).

This is just my understanding of the rules, though - might be missing or misunderstanding something, so feel free to correct this.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Don't the wolves know if a role is not used? Just something to think about. If he really is the duke he would have nothing to worry about with my tie vote theory.

Do they?

[Danny]

That could change things, but I feel pretty good that the duke role is still in the game.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by dubb93

re-reading the rules am I wrong that I am allowed to believe two people a day. I swear I saw it in there, now I can't seem to find it again.

Originally Posted by Barkeep49 (Original Rules Post)

Ok so sounds pretty normal so far. How does this believing thing work?
Players may at any time claim a role. Players can just simply say "I'm such and such". After a player has claimed a role, people may choose to believe them. People may believe up to two people a day by posting in bold and blue e.g.: Believe Barkeep as Vanilla Villager. If on any day at least 40% of people believe a person they become believed. During the day you may also disbelieve players (done the same way as believing, but with the word disbelieve). Only one person may be believed each day. If more than one person gets above 40% of the players to believe them the player with the greatest percentage of votes will be believed. If there is a tie no player will be believed.

Was this what you were looking for?

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Introduction



Ok so sounds pretty normal so far. How does this believing thing work?
Players may at any time claim a role. Players can just simply say "I'm such and such". After a player has claimed a role, people may choose to believe them. People may believe up to two people a day by posting in bold and blue e.g.: Believe Barkeep as Vanilla Villager. If on any day at least 40% of people believe a person they become believed. During the day you may also disbelieve players (done the same way as believing, but with the word disbelieve). Only one person may be believed each day. If more than one person gets above 40% of the players to believe them the player with the greatest percentage of votes will be believed. If there is a tie no player will be believed.

You can believe up to two people a day. Looks like I used the wrong word before (actually I don't think I even used an actual word). So to make it official,

Disbelieve Chief Rum as Seer
Believe Hoopsguy as Seer

[hoopsguy]

People may believe up to two people a day by posting in bold and blue e.g.: Believe Barkeep as Vanilla Villager. If on any day at least 40% of people believe a person they become believed. During the day you may also disbelieve players (done the same way as believing, but with the word disbelieve). Only one person may be believed each day. If more than one person gets above 40% of the players to believe them the player with the greatest percentage of votes will be believed. If there is a tie no player will be believed.

Dubb jogged my memory on this - I think he is correct on being able to believe two people per day, based on how I'm reading the sections that I bolded. But it would be nice if BK could clarify when he catches up in the thread.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by MartinD

Was this what you were looking for?

Yes, thank you. I was just getting stuck on the only one person may be believed a day and didn't even see the part above it when I went back and re-read them.

[Tyrith]

So it seems we each get two non-stacking votes for who gets believed each day, but there can be only one winner. Seems simple enough.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

That could change things, but I feel pretty good that the duke role is still in the game.

It states that the wolves know a role which is not in the game, or that all roles are used.

It just struck me that he was trying too hard to claim to be the duke and convince people that he "really is"; then once I started to call him on it he is unwilling to back it up anymore.

[hoopsguy]

If I'm allowed to believe myself I will. It also represents an option to self-vote without it being a total jag move

BELIEVE HOOPSGUY AS SEER
BELIEVE CHIEF RUM AS SEER

If I'm not allowed to vote for myself then I intend to change the vote to DT. I believe the seer path is the optimal play on D1.

[hoopsguy]

I should be back before deadline, just not sure how much before deadline.

[Danny]

People should trust me on this and go with the BG first and seer next.

[MartinD]

Trying to think through why a player would claim the role of the cultist...

Villager: Finds out the identity of one of the wolves (which could potentially be very useful if the villagers get to endgame with one wolf left...), and get the option to take on the powers of the cultist (win with the wolves, converted rather than killed if target of night kill)

Cultist: Can either become a vanilla villager (a distant second choice?), or find out the identity of all wolves and remain the cultist (i.e. wins with wolves, will be converted). As far as I can tell, it's hard to see why the cultist would choose to convert to being a villager, given the choices available.

Wolf: No real benefit: 1) finds out the identity of a wolf, but has PM rights with the other wolves already, so will know all of the wolves already. 2) wins with the wolves - was going to win with the wolves anyway... 3) conversion if attacked by the wolves - this person is already a wolf! (Of course, a wolf could use this apparent lack of benefit to build trust with the village - would have to sacrifice one of their wolvish colleagues for this to work, though, as the 'believe' will be public, and there would be pressure to reveal the identity of the wolf that's provided with the 'believed' cultist role.)


I was going to vote for lerriuqs before I looked at this more closely - now I'm not so sure...

[EagleFan]

BG, BG, BG!!!! If we hit on a good believed BG we can control the game and have the wolves scrambling. We lay the foundation for protection and then our believed seer can come into play. Defense wins championships.

We have a 1 in 6 chance of getting a positive result on day two from a believed seer. We have about a 1 in 21 chance of hitting a homerun and getting the cunning with a believed scan. On the other side we have a 1 in 17 chance of giving the cunning the role.

[Danny]

Vote DaddyTorgo

I don't want to throw away my vote and do not like Lerriuqs or Dubb as candidates today. I may not be able to make it back before deadline as I am leaving soon.

[Danny]

Vote DaddyTorgo

[USFLTecmo]

Might want to blue your vote then.

[USFLTecmo]

There we go.

[dubb93]

VOTE EF

I will be out until deadline. I'm voting for the one guy who seems hell bent on discrediting my reveal.