What will the outcome be of the mid terms?

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I think there's an argument to be made that this actually makes DeSantis worse/more dangerous. Trump's incompetence mitigated how much damage he was able to do in a lot of ways. Trump, but more competent/sane, is potentially a much bigger threat.

I guess there is that "potential" for DeSantis could be worse/more dangerous but I'll take those odds vs the known insanity & narcissism of Trump.

Look at it this way. Of the examples I provided below on why I believe DeSantis is better than Trump, the below pretty much describes every 535 Congressperson + 50 Governors. The odds are that DeSantis, bad as some will say he is and assessed holistically (vs an individual policy here and there), is not near as bad as Trump.

Originally Posted by Edward64
That's hard to define but there's plenty of examples. There's not a tweet/drama/crisis etc. every 2-3 days. There's not a need to lie or bash/ridicule someone everyday. Communication style is more clear and consistent. Less hypocrisy. Definitely not near as narcissistic.

Basically, DeSantis is (more) sane.

[JPhillips]

GOPers are straining very hard to understand how single women could have gone +37 for Dems all while trying never to say Dobbs might be the issue.

[Flasch186]

Hard to believe that they would have sex outside of wedlock

That’s reserved for white men in the good book


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Mota]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I absolutely agree. I think a ranked-choice system is about the only way we can create a viable multi-party system. I would love to see a Progressive party, Green Party, Centrist party, Conservative party etc. and force colitions to build to govern.


Obama needs to be on every college campus in Georgia for the next 4 weeks. He and Michelle just needs to move into the W downtown until the runoff is over. Stacy Abrams needs her full attention on her "get out the vote" apparatus. Mainly, I believe Warnock needs to focus on some positive campaigning like he did when he won the last election.

As a Canadian who experiences the multi-party system, it has pros and cons for sure. The winning party will never have a majority of votes, just a plurality. So it gives rise to the naysayers who will say that the majority of people voted against the winning party, so they don't represent the people.

Then the next call is for different voting methods, which of course will give the advantage to their preferred party.

[bronconick]

Someone is going to have to convince me that Trump won't just drub DeSantis like Jeb Bush if they're in a contested primary before I worry about DeSantis before 2028.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I guess there is that "potential" for DeSantis could be worse/more dangerous but I'll take those odds vs the known insanity & narcissism of Trump.

Look at it this way. Of the examples I provided below on why I believe DeSantis is better than Trump, the below pretty much describes every 535 Congressperson + 50 Governors. The odds are that DeSantis, bad as some will say he is and assessed holistically (vs an individual policy here and there), is not near as bad as Trump.

Yeah, he's definitely not a guy who picks fights every three days against useless boogeymen to dominate the news cycle and flood the zone, just like Trump. He didn't pick a fight with one of his state's largest employer because of a timid statement in response to his horrible legislation or use his state's COVID money to bus another state's immigrants to a third state purely for publicity. And he does have a flair for performative legislation that gets struck down in court like his "riot" bill, his internet "free speech" one, or his WOKE act. But, yes, he has the potential to be much more competent and dangerous because he does things like ignore court decisions and demand he draw his own congressional maps.

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by bronconick

Someone is going to have to convince me that Trump won't just drub DeSantis like Jeb Bush if they're in a contested primary before I worry about DeSantis before 2028.

This is fair. Let's get it on!

Hoping DeSantis takes the leap, it'll be a fascinating battle with Trump (or embarrassing cratering)

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Mota

As a Canadian who experiences the multi-party system, it has pros and cons for sure. The winning party will never have a majority of votes, just a plurality. So it gives rise to the naysayers who will say that the majority of people voted against the winning party, so they don't represent the people.

Then the next call is for different voting methods, which of course will give the advantage to their preferred party.

Anything is going to have pro's and con's. I would rather something that sort of forces comprise to work rather than the current system that forces extreme division.

[Edward64]

Feeling better about AZ. Kelly has kept his 5% lead from 68% to now 76% counted.

Not feeling that great about NV. Laxalt still looks pretty good with 84% counted.

Looks like it will come down to Warnock (and Manchin, is he the big winner here?) for Biden.

[Ryche]

It makes all the sense in the world for DeSantis to sit out until 2028. He's the golden boy right now, he's still pretty young and he has a large platform in Florida. Let Trump run, cheer him on so you don't piss off the Trump only supporters and then, no matter who wins in 2024, he's positioned perfectly for 2028.

The biggest reason to run in 2024 is that Biden would be a potentially easier opponent than whoever runs for the Democrats in 2028.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

GOPers are straining very hard to understand how single women could have gone +37 for Dems all while trying never to say Dobbs might be the issue.

I saw one (of many, I assume) GOP pundits arguing that GOP men needed to marry all of these Dem under 40 women. The implication being, of course, that once married, the woman would cease having a mind of her own and do what the husband directs. These people are just terrible human beings.

[Jas_lov]

I actually think Masto looks good in NV. She got the margins she needed in last night's release. Laxalt lead down to 15k. Not much left in the rural counties. She is now winning Washoe County, which is usually the swing county. There's still 100k+ ballots left in Clark and Washoe.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Ryche

It makes all the sense in the world for DeSantis to sit out until 2028. He's the golden boy right now, he's still pretty young and he has a large platform in Florida. Let Trump run, cheer him on so you don't piss off the Trump only supporters and then, no matter who wins in 2024, he's positioned perfectly for 2028.

The biggest reason to run in 2024 is that Biden would be a potentially easier opponent than whoever runs for the Democrats in 2028.

I guess, but 6 years is a long time. And there's another governor's race. A lot can happen. He might be Urban Meyer, but what if he's one of these guys who peaks but sticks around waiting for the perfect job, starts to falter, and all of a sudden he's no longer the hot commodity?

[Galaril]

They just called Colorado 8th District for Democrat Yadira Caraveo over Kirkmayer. This is important since Boebert might hang on we were in jeopardy of State legislature swinging to R control. Now even if Boebert wins Ds control 4 of the 7 voting districts.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

I actually think Masto looks good in NV. She got the margins she needed in last night's release. Laxalt lead down to 15k. Not much left in the rural counties. She is now winning Washoe County, which is usually the swing county. There's still 100k+ ballots left in Clark and Washoe.

That would be great. It'll take pressure off Warnock (and maybe less ads for the next month).

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I guess, but 6 years is a long time. And there's another governor's race. A lot can happen. He might be Urban Meyer, but what if he's one of these guys who peaks but sticks around waiting for the perfect job, starts to falter, and all of a sudden he's no longer the hot commodity?

This is what I'm thinking.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I saw one (of many, I assume) GOP pundits arguing that GOP men needed to marry all of these Dem under 40 women. The implication being, of course, that once married, the woman would cease having a mind of her own and do what the husband directs. These people are just terrible human beings.

LOL. My wife and I are staunch Democrats. I am more moderate then her. She is a public school teacher trained to teach in high risk schools. Her class each year has usually 90% Hispanic students all hovering around the poverty level. We have 5 kids all teams and 4 our daughters. We have raised them all to be crazy woke liberals. My wife and I told them don’t ever bring home a conservative Maga type guy to meet us. If they were to marry middle of the road conservatives and swing them to the D side that would be ok.😀

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I saw one (of many, I assume) GOP pundits arguing that GOP men needed to marry all of these Dem under 40 women. The implication being, of course, that once married, the woman would cease having a mind of her own and do what the husband directs. These people are just terrible human beings.

I think that may work out the exact opposite of what they are hoping and just build the Dem base LOL.

[Ksyrup]

The other thing I've seen is the reaction to so many younger people coming out to vote and voting overwhelmingly Democrat is that in order to be successful, Rs need to ... increase the voting age to 21.

It's always about who shouldn't vote when the GOP isn't successful.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

I think that may work out the exact opposite of what they are hoping and just build the Dem base LOL.

Well, I think the underlying argument is that young families (husband/wife) are more likely to be GOP, so there's this transition period between young, single and Democrat/liberal to married and GOP. But I'm also reading into it the Christian angle, which is fairly common in some parts of our country - as evidenced by all of the women who openly support anti-woman initiatives.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The other thing I've seen is the reaction to so many younger people coming out to vote and voting overwhelmingly Democrat is that in order to be successful, Rs need to ... increase the voting age to 21.

It's always about who shouldn't vote when the GOP isn't successful.

They're so clever. I'm sure that's easy to do.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I guess there is that "potential" for DeSantis could be worse/more dangerous but I'll take those odds vs the known insanity & narcissism of Trump.

Look at it this way. Of the examples I provided below on why I believe DeSantis is better than Trump, the below pretty much describes every 535 Congressperson + 50 Governors. The odds are that DeSantis, bad as some will say he is and assessed holistically (vs an individual policy here and there), is not near as bad as Trump.

This part of Brian's post is significant for me.

The only way for them to get a new star who is the 'vaguely responsible governance' category is for their voters to start voting for more of those people in primaries. It has to be fixed at the bottom instead of the top, and I don't see that happening until Trumpism is good and dead. The earliest that can happen in 2024. I think the best thing for both the Republican Party and the nation politically would be for Trump to get nominated again and get crushed in the general. Politicans will go where they think the votes are.

Make no mistake about it. DeSantis is a disciple of Trumpism and governs as such. And that is what his supporters want from him. I don't see anything to indicate otherwise. Sterlingice cited a few examples. Has he done it as the same grand scale as Trump? No. I would argue he has not had to because Trump would always be out in front with his drama. But that is still his biggest sell at this point IMO.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Make no mistake about it. DeSantis is a disciple of Trumpism and governs as such. And that is what his supporters want from him. I don't see anything to indicate otherwise. Sterlingice cited a few examples. Has he done it as the same grand scale as Trump? No. I would argue he has not had to because Trump would always be out in front with his drama. But that is still his biggest sell at this point IMO.

The original question was how much better is DeSantis vs Trump, and are they even that much different. Not comparing them to a 3rd candidate, just those 2.

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz View Post
Serious question: How much better than Trump is DeSantis? I don't see them as being that different. When I think 'relatively normal GOP candidate', I think 'somebody closer to Liz Cheney than Ron DeSantis'.

So if you had to pick one, only one, who is better? Factor in everything including policies, actions, statements, personality, sanity etc.

On the hypothetical DeSantis scale of 1 to 10 -- where 1 is extremely worse than Trump, 5 is same, 10 is extremely better - I'd put DeSantis at a significantly better 8/9 range.


EDIT: if we want to talk about DeSantis, his policies, is there anyone better than him etc. glad to get into the discussion. But that was not the original question and that was not the context of my answers.

[Brian Swartz]

I think DeSantis is better than Trump. But on your scale, I'd make him a high 5. 6 at absolute most.

Put it this way: I don't like being a Biden voter (and a Gov. Whitmer voter in the midterms). I disagree with them on policy as much as I agree with them. Some of the disagreements are very large and substantial. The most important area I agree with them on (climate change) they are doing IMO very little about - though partly that's the fault of the opposition.

Any party that is willing to three things will get my enthusiastic and full-voiced support:

- Play it straight when it comes to democracy, voting rights, gerrymandering, etc.
- Treat the constitution as binding, not a suggestion to be ignored when it's convenient
- Take seriously our responsibilities towards the environment and not screwing over future generations because we don't want to make hard decisions now.

We have no party willing to do even two of those things; at most there is tepid lip service to one of them. Leading is hard and I certainly couldn't do it myself; I'm not putting myself on a pedestal above them. But DeSantis isn't any more interested in doing any of these three than Trump is. Mostly IMO, that's because the voting base doesn't want him to be. There are minorities of the left who want the first and third one, but not enough to make it happen.

I think for the most part our disagreement is about Trump's 'demeanor'. The tweets, the personal attacks, etc. are very bad. They are more important than 'minor' political issues, but not nearly as important IMO as the huge, foundational ones. And on those foundational issues, I don't think there's a difference between the two. DeSantis is just Trump, but less incompetent on those. .02

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

I think DeSantis is better than Trump. But on your scale, I'd make him a high 5. 6 at absolute most.

I don't see it. But we'll agree to disagree here.


EDIT: I see your update on the 3 foundational items. I'm sure that's why we disagree. I would not limit it to those 3 and wouldn't agree they are the top 3.

[Radii]

Originally Posted by Kodos

I’m praying that the abortion is going to drive a blue wave of women that the polls are overlooking. And people who want to save democracy.

Apparently 72% of white women voted for Kemp over Abrams in Georgia, so that's neat.

[larrymcg421]

Seems pretty certain that Masto is going to win at this point. The latest batch of mail flipped Washoe county from red to blue.

I think Sisolak might be able to survive int he Gov race, but it will be super close.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Radii

Apparently 72% of white women voted for Kemp over Abrams in Georgia, so that's neat.

The statewide candidates for the Georgia GOP did a great job of appearing to be anti-Trump, while still appealing to Trump voters.

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

I guess, but 6 years is a long time. And there's another governor's race. A lot can happen. He might be Urban Meyer, but what if he's one of these guys who peaks but sticks around waiting for the perfect job, starts to falter, and all of a sudden he's no longer the hot commodity?

Nah, he wouldn't run for governor again, he'd just announce he is running for president instead.

[Edward64]

It seems Frisch's lead has widened from like < 100? Hope she goes down.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-ne...022/index.html

Ballots are still being counted in Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert's Colorado district, where she is in a tight race against Democrat Adam Frisch.

CNN has not made a projection in the race yet, but Frisch was ahead of Boebert by just 386 as of 12: 30 p.m. ET Thursday.
:
On Wednesday night, Pueblo County Clerk and Recorder Gilbert Ortiz told CNN that Pueblo County, another county in Boebert’s district, was expected to post more votes that night and they would pick back up tomorrow morning at 11 a.m ET (9 a.m local time)

[Ryche]

Originally Posted by Galaril

They just called Colorado 8th District for Democrat Yadira Caraveo over Kirkmayer. This is important since Boebert might hang on we were in jeopardy of State legislature swinging to R control. Now even if Boebert wins Ds control 4 of the 7 voting districts.

Colorado has 8 congressional seats now. Split is 5-2 plus the winner of the 3rd.

State legislature is totally Democrat controlled. Hell, we just elected a Democrat in Highlands Ranch.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Radii

Apparently 72% of white women voted for Kemp over Abrams in Georgia, so that's neat.

Not surprising. Nationally white women vote for Republicans over Democrats. I think the number I saw was 52%-48%. If that number flipped, Democrats would be in the majority regardless of gerrymandering.

[Lathum]

Boebert up by 400 now...

[Ksyrup]

I’m sure our enemies are quacking in their boots while we are still over here trying to count ballots.

— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene���� (@RepMTG) November 10, 2022

[JPhillips]

NBC is predicting a 1 seat GOP House majority.

That should be entertaining.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Boebert up by 400 now...

Everything I'm reading says that those were all Otero County votes that would lean her way and what's left leans left. Either way, it sounds like this is likely going to trigger an automatic recount it's going to be so close.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Is she gearing up to go to war with Donald, Scrooge, and the gang?

I hope she has her sharpie ready because life is like a hurricane here in Duckburg.

Spoiler

If that's stuck in your head the rest of the day, sorry not sorry (woo-oo)

SI

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

NBC is predicting a 1 seat GOP House majority.

That should be entertaining.

New York, of all places, likely screwed the dems out of maintaining control of the House

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Atocep

New York, of all places, likely screwed the dems out of maintaining control of the House

One positive out of this, though, is that those members are less likely to go full in on MAGA because of their constituency. So they may be tougher to whip to support some of the more extreme stuff I expect we'll see if Jordan and his gang take control from McCarthy.

[sterlingice]

Seems like if you're the Dems and you want some stuff passed, just pork up the bill a little to get a GOP vote here or there, and you can get the spending bills done.

Then again, they can't seem to keep their caucus in order so why would I think they can do good horse trading with the GOP.

SI

[stevew]

*if* McCarthy controls the gavel and nothing passes without a majority of the majority though.

[Edward64]

I can understand waiting on mail in ballots that were postmarked close to/on election day and hence the wait.

But com'on. Not yet started counting ballots dropped off on Tue smells of unpreparedness.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-ne...3040fb6ab3e440

Arizona's Maricopa County has not started counting 290,000 ballots that were dropped off at voting sites on election day — a critical batch of ballots that could help determine who wins the uncalled Senate and governor’s races in the state, Bill Gates, chairman of the Maricopa County board of supervisors, told CNN Thursday.

Maricopa County has about 400,000 ballots left to count, and 290,000 of those are early ballots that were dropped off at voting sites Tuesday, Gates told CNN’s Sara Sidner.

The 290,000 ballots that were dropped off on election day “was a record,” he said.

[RainMaker]

So the Democrats won statewide with 51% of the vote and earned 30% of the state house. Can someone explain to me how Wisconsin is a democracy? pic.twitter.com/MuqZMV57UH

— Hayden Clarkin (@the_transit_guy) November 10, 2022

[bob]

Because votes in one election don’t count in other elections? I mean, that’s sorta how it all works.

[dubb93]

Gerrymandering is probably the real answer. I have no idea if that is true in this case but I could 100% sure how you could get a couple near 100% democrat districts out of that map and carve the rest of those blue areas up into narrow red districts.

[Lathum]

Kari Lake is starting to freak the fuck out and I am here for it. Amazes me these election denying maga idiots can’t grasp that most people really don’t like them.

[Ryche]

If you have blue votes clustered around Madison and Milwaukee at a 90% rate and the rest of the state is 60%-70% red, it's actually pretty hard to district that into something representing the statewide vote. It has to be drawn very deliberately (gerrymandered) to not have more red districts.

[Ksyrup]

I thought "freak the fuck out" was her campaign slogan.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Kari Lake is starting to freak the fuck out and I am here for it. Amazes me these election denying maga idiots can’t grasp that most people really don’t like them.

Something that the GOP seems to never get is that acting like Trump only seems to ever work for Trump.

[dubb93]

Who has a map of the districts?