Werewolf Small Game XI -- Divination Nation! (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN!! )

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, do you think it is more of a priority to have two scans on NTN compared to Cronin?

Well ntn has some question on him since we have conflicting scans. having multiple scans on him would give us further info on DT and Cronin perhaps. We already have had 2 scans on cronin that agree, so a third would be good as long as it doesnt come from me or ntn

[hoopsguy]

Very well, I'll change my scan over to NTN.

My worry is that Cronin gets very messy if he shows up with clean scan tomorrow (complicit wolf, bad %, or potentially he had two crappy rolls earlier), where a split on two scans for him is more than enough to support the two earlier scans in my opinion.

[DaddyTorgo]

okay, so where should my scan go? i'm confused again

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, the early vote had moved over to Cronin before both Chief Rum and NTN came out saying that ImTheCrew was a wolf. This statement has been proven true.

So, the question is would one of them as a wolf have knowledge on Cronin but not on ITC and this seemed like an opportunity to create some doubt? This seems most likely with NTN, who was the tipping point. Chief tied it 2-2, and it was not clear what NTN would say (or even that he would scan ITC, as he had suggested he would scan "another candidate" - not Cronin - in Post #179).

So I think Alan is probably on the right track here in terms of focusing on Cronin and NTN.

Actually post 179 first said that I had turned in my scan and had scanned ITC. that was the "another candidate " that was referred to.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

DT, Alan is grabbing the scan on NTN so we should have the remaining scans.

Proposed - partially based on what is already in:
Hoops - Cronin
Cronin - Alan
Alan - NTN
Rum - DT
DT - ??? (pick me, pick Alan, or whoever you want as I wanted one choice to be randomized)
NTN - Cronin


Are there any problems with these choices? I don't believe it represents anyone having to re-scan someone they have already viewed. It leaves Rum or me short on views through the first three days since we each have only one so far and nothing listed here. But there are a shortage of verified good views out there so far, so any plan is going to have some shortcomings.

actually I am glad someone I dont think is a wolf is going to scan me. and someone else that I trust is scanning one of those I believe to be a wolf.

[st.cronin]

As I said before I'm scanning Alan T. I'm a student; I encourage everybody to scan me.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

As I said before I'm scanning Alan T. I'm a student; I encourage everybody to scan me.

alright. I shall. since you want everyone to scan you and hoops suggested for me to scan you.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Each of the last two days Chief and NTN have been among the last two to chime in with their findings (going from memory here).

What are you talking about? I revealed my scan results within two hours of the PMs going out both on Day One and Day Two. Go check for yourself if you doubt me.

ntn was the last to reveal his scan on Day One, IIRC, so you may be right there. But wiht me, I work all day both days and can only post early in the morning or late at night. It would be hard for me to not be one of the early scans. I believe on Day One, I was the third or fourth person to reveal his scan (on AlanT).

There were more people on early on Day Two, so it might have been sixth or seventh by the time I posted, but it was still fairly early, within an hour or so (sorry for not getting up at 9 a.m.).

[Chief Rum]

I'm glad to see my scan of ITC was validated. IMO, that speaks well of ntndeacon (who also said he scanned wolf on ITC). He also scanned me and viewed me correctly as a student. So while I see the suspicion and the connections here, whjat I am seeing is a lot of doubt on DaddyTorgo. There is reason to doubt his ntn scan, and he was one of the two to "badly" scan Lathum.

I am glad he is mine to scan tonight. I will send in my scan choice now.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

The wolves must eliminate ALL the students. The students must eliminate ALL the wolves.

BTW, a couple people who normally pay much better attention seem to be assuming the standard wolves==villagers becomes WOLF WIN is in place. The above is from the rule set in the first post.

The wolves must eliminate every student, and the students must eliminate every wolf (which of course is normal).

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

BTW, a couple people who normally pay much better attention seem to be assuming the standard wolves==villagers becomes WOLF WIN is in place. The above is from the rule set in the first post.

The wolves must eliminate every student, and the students must eliminate every wolf (which of course is normal).

Chief, the concern yesterday was that if the wolves knew who each other were, then they did control the game even if it was not over. Our only hope at that point is that they did not vote in a block, did not kill each other at night, etc. So it wasn't OVER, per se, but it would have essentially been over if they all knew of each other.

Now that we are past the deadline, I'm comfortable saying that I had a high level of trust for you by the end of my analysis of votes yesterday. I'm hoping that didn't come through too clearly in my earlier posts, as I didn't want to put a target on your back for Night 2. But I'm guessing either you or Alan is going to end up dead this morning, based on your "clean" resumes up to this point.

[st.cronin]

My scan on Alan T came back wolf, as I expected.

[path12]

Once again you all fall fast asleep from the exertions of casting your scans. You awake to find Alan T dead at his desk. This is getting worrisome.

ALAN T WAS A STUDENT.

DAY 3 HAS BEGUN. DEADLINE IS 9PM EASTERN.

[st.cronin]

argh

[hoopsguy]

NTN = student.

[path12]

GM note: I will not be around until late tonight to process results. I'm open to thoughts on the weekend, especially since we're down to 5 players. I'm thinking of a night action until Sat evening and then a day action ending Sunday night, but I'm totally OK with pushing it to Monday if that's consensus. If you'd rather, we could just go with nightfall votes and have the schedule run that way.

[DaddyTorgo]

bad news...which I fully expect to be lynched for...i fell asleep on the sofa before submitting my scan bid

sorry i'm stupid

[st.cronin]

I will not be around on sunday at all, but will be available both early and late saturday.

[DaddyTorgo]

then again I was likely going to scan alan out of that grouping anyways, and he's dead, so *shrug*.

i'd just like to point out that instead of lying about scanning alan and having him come up clean to build trust, i'm admitting that I didn't scan him, freely and of my own volition. Sorry, guess I was really tired.

[hoopsguy]

Off to a roaring start:

One bad scan of the dead student
One "no scan"
One scan coming up villager (NTN)

DaddyT, you got a randomly generated player for a scan on Night 0 when you did not submit, but didn't get a scan today? Path, can you explain this if it was moderator ruling? Daddy, can you explain this if Path won't?

[st.cronin]

With Alan T coming up clean, my worries about Chief Rum are diminished.

[DaddyTorgo]

I think path said that the randomly generated scan on n0 was just because of the quick turnaround and to ensure that everyone got something.

welcome to me being a doofus hoops. Then again, as I said, I think I was leaning towards scanning alan to provide double-blind verification with cronin's scan, so really there isn't much of a loss

[st.cronin]

vote DaddyTorgo

It was fairly clear that on day 1 either him or hoopsguy was a wolf. I'm not sure I buy DT's nap story.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

vote DaddyTorgo

It was fairly clear that on day 1 either him or hoopsguy was a wolf. I'm not sure I buy DT's nap story.

ask yourself this cronin: if I was a wolf why wouldn't i try to hide myself by just agreeing with your scan? In this game it's easier than ever to play a UTR wolf and just make something up, and later if you have to, blame it on the bad %'s. And in this case, with Alan dead before I even got up and posted, it would have been simple for me to say "i scanned alan, he's a student." instead i came right out and admitted that I blew it and didn't get a scan in. if I was a wolf this close to endgame I would have just made something up. But I didn't. And now look who's jumping on me. someone who has been a prime suspect all along.

Interestingly enough, you're the first person to jump on me for that. Now I'm not going to claim that it was my plan all along, but when I turned on my computer and went white in the face all "oh crap I forgot to put a scan order in," I realized that this might be a good way to smoke someone out. Put out there what truly happened which will obviously create doubt, and see who jumps on it.

and lo and behold, you....who have been under suspiscion the whole game, who Alan voted for yesterday and had his suspiscions about, jump on it.

VOTE ST. CRONIN


non-statistically speaking, I feel pretty damm good about this

[ntndeacon]

got my results. I scanned st. cronin. He came up student.

[Lathum]

This game is a great read.

damn you fuckers for killing me on day one.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This game is a great read.

damn you fuckers for killing me on day one.

sorry bub. But you came up all wolfy.

[ntndeacon]

I believe that though my scan came up with st. cronin as a student, he is in fact a wolf. There is enough doubt created by my scan to delay voting for a bit of time.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

ask yourself this cronin: if I was a wolf why wouldn't i try to hide myself by just agreeing with your scan? In this game it's easier than ever to play a UTR wolf and just make something up, and later if you have to, blame it on the bad %'s. And in this case, with Alan dead before I even got up and posted, it would have been simple for me to say "i scanned alan, he's a student." instead i came right out and admitted that I blew it and didn't get a scan in. if I was a wolf this close to endgame I would have just made something up. But I didn't. And now look who's jumping on me. someone who has been a prime suspect all along.

Interestingly enough, you're the first person to jump on me for that. Now I'm not going to claim that it was my plan all along, but when I turned on my computer and went white in the face all "oh crap I forgot to put a scan order in," I realized that this might be a good way to smoke someone out. Put out there what truly happened which will obviously create doubt, and see who jumps on it.

and lo and behold, you....who have been under suspiscion the whole game, who Alan voted for yesterday and had his suspiscions about, jump on it.

VOTE ST. CRONIN


non-statistically speaking, I feel pretty damm good about this

You've been cleared by me, and ITC. My clear was first. ITC was a wolf - the smart wolf play is to put a second clear on a wolf that gets a bad first clear.

You also came out on day 1 calling Lathum a wolf, which fits right into what I perceive to be basic wolf strategy in this game. Day 2 you were compelled to sell ITC out to gain trust.

I feel pretty good about this.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

DaddyT, you got a randomly generated player for a scan on Night 0 when you did not submit, but didn't get a scan today? Path, can you explain this if it was moderator ruling? Daddy, can you explain this if Path won't?

I will be glad to answer this after the game.

[DaddyTorgo]

well you're wrong cronin. I'm no wolf. You've played wolf-side with me, you know how i'd play

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

well you're wrong cronin. I'm no wolf. You've played wolf-side with me, you know how i'd play

I could say the same to you. Does it really seem to you like I'm playing as a wolf?

[DaddyTorgo]

touche...touche


who then? ntn? hoops? a masterful CR job?

[hoopsguy]

For me it is going to come down to Cronin vs Torgo for my vote today. Rum and NTN aren't going to factor in unless something weird comes up.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin - viewed as bad by two confirmed villagers (RendeR D1, Alan D2)

Torgo - wrong view on Lathum (D1), conflicting view with me on NTN


I'm hoping that I can't go wrong with my selection here. As is, I'll hold off until hearing what Rum got for his view last night.

[DaddyTorgo]

hoops...if you go with me you'll be going wrong for us students, that much I can guarentee you

[RendeR]

YOu guys are KILLIN me. Its no wonder they killed me off early on =)

GAH! *LOL*

[Chief Rum]

Good freakin' Lord.

I hate to throw a wrench into the works but Daddy Torgo came up wolf to me. I'm beginning to suspect there are no villagers in this game except me.

Either that or this little spat between st. cronin and DT is a fight between the last two remaining wolves, and in some weird twist in this game, they're trying to unbeknownstly off each other.

Personally, I'm torn on this one. I naturally tend to lean toward my own scans, just because that's a scan I can depend on being down to the percentages (I don't have to run it through multiple what-if's to know I have a 75% chance of being right on DT, for instance).

But there has been a lot of evidence pointing at st. cronin, and then just one post before we discovered AlanT was a student, st. cronin posts Alan as a wolf (and as Alan predicted). It's another bit of evidence that goes against what we know.

So do I trust my own scan and the logic I laid out earlier (before deadline) about DT or do I listen to the mountain evidence against cronin? I don't know right now, but I'm willing to listen to anyone else's theories.

path, I'm realtively open to do whatever for the weekend. I can do nightfall, or the schedule suggested, although I won't be around for a Sunday night deadline (no shock, I'm not around for almost any deadline).

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Chief, the concern yesterday was that if the wolves knew who each other were, then they did control the game even if it was not over. Our only hope at that point is that they did not vote in a block, did not kill each other at night, etc. So it wasn't OVER, per se, but it would have essentially been over if they all knew of each other.

Now that we are past the deadline, I'm comfortable saying that I had a high level of trust for you by the end of my analysis of votes yesterday. I'm hoping that didn't come through too clearly in my earlier posts, as I didn't want to put a target on your back for Night 2. But I'm guessing either you or Alan is going to end up dead this morning, based on your "clean" resumes up to this point.

Yeah, I posted this as a response on the fly as I was reading the thread last night. I always tell people to read the whole thread, and then I don't follow my own advice. I got the sense you had moved away from this theory by the end of the thread. If I had seen that, I wouldn't have bothered to respond as I did. Glad to see you and I are seeing things much the same.

[DaddyTorgo]

chief...i can only tell you what you'd expect me to tell you either way, and that is that I am not a wolf.

I know that's very little comfort, and it's not very convincing, because either way I would say it, but I am 100% student.

I didn't even notice that cronin posted that one post before alan's death. Very very interesting. And then he jumps right on me.

I am not a wolf. If you all want to lynch me, win the game for the wolves, and prove that, go ahead. I can only tell you that I'm 100% student.

Cronin seems more and more suspicious to me as the minutes tick by though.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

For me it is going to come down to Cronin vs Torgo for my vote today. Rum and NTN aren't going to factor in unless something weird comes up.

i agree with you Hoops. I see it as either DT or Cronin as well.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Good freakin' Lord.

I hate to throw a wrench into the works but Daddy Torgo came up wolf to me. I'm beginning to suspect there are no villagers in this game except me.

Either that or this little spat between st. cronin and DT is a fight between the last two remaining wolves, and in some weird twist in this game, they're trying to unbeknownstly off each other.

Personally, I'm torn on this one. I naturally tend to lean toward my own scans, just because that's a scan I can depend on being down to the percentages (I don't have to run it through multiple what-if's to know I have a 75% chance of being right on DT, for instance).

But there has been a lot of evidence pointing at st. cronin, and then just one post before we discovered AlanT was a student, st. cronin posts Alan as a wolf (and as Alan predicted). It's another bit of evidence that goes against what we know.

So do I trust my own scan and the logic I laid out earlier (before deadline) about DT or do I listen to the mountain evidence against cronin? I don't know right now, but I'm willing to listen to anyone else's theories.

path, I'm realtively open to do whatever for the weekend. I can do nightfall, or the schedule suggested, although I won't be around for a Sunday night deadline (no shock, I'm not around for almost any deadline).

Rum, personally ithink they are both wolves. But another scan was what Iwas waiting for. SO with your scan Iwill ...

Vote DaddyTorgo

[DaddyTorgo]

if you guys see it as either cronin or me, I suggest (obviously) that you vote cronin, because I am 100% student, that much I know.

I think the bigger issue to look at here is that cronin and I are not both wolves (because I know I'm not) so even if cronin is (which I suspect he is) then you still have one wolf in with the 3 of you (hoops, ntn, cr). Now if cronin is actually a student too, then we're screwed, because you'll off one of us, it'll be 2-2 and the game will be over after the night-kill when the wolves go up 2-1.

So essentially this vote today is for the game. I'm comfortable voting cronin, but it worries me that there is either 1 or 2 wolves still left within the 3 of you who are not "on the block" that are driving the action. And why would they be driving it toweards myself+cronin unless they knew both of us were innocent?

does that make any sense? it's always seemed to me that at endgame you should almost do the opposite of what the most vocal person/people want you to do, because at that point they're likely wolves trying to end it.

so all i'm saying is...let's just be sure on cronin in our own minds+hearts before we vote, and not be swayed by anyone's argument

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

chief...i can only tell you what you'd expect me to tell you either way, and that is that I am not a wolf.

I know that's very little comfort, and it's not very convincing, because either way I would say it, but I am 100% student.

I didn't even notice that cronin posted that one post before alan's death. Very very interesting. And then he jumps right on me.

I am not a wolf. If you all want to lynch me, win the game for the wolves, and prove that, go ahead. I can only tell you that I'm 100% student.

Cronin seems more and more suspicious to me as the minutes tick by though.

Well, the odds say I am a little due for a bad read. I was correct about Alan (student) and ITC (wolf). The odds of me getting all three right (from the perspective of the start of the game) is around 42%. But then, as statheads will always tell you, whatever the percentages, the first two are in the bag. I got those right, and they don't affect my read on you. Which puts it right back at 75%.

I am leaning toward cronin, but I wouldn't encourage you to think that means I think you're right or not trying to deceive or whatever. It's just he may be the better candidate for today, but you certainly look like a strong candidate tomorrow, if you don't mind me saying.

[DaddyTorgo]

ntn's voting for me as well? whatever happened to ntn+cronin being the top suspects? they pretty much skated away from that distinction earlier in the game.

this is bullcrap guys. The wolves have set this up great. You're going to let ntn+cronin completely skate after they were top suspects?

[DaddyTorgo]

hey look...we're almost all here

including one of you whom I am sure is a wolf. Because I know i'm not a wolf, so regardless of whether cronin is a wolf or not (personally I think he is), we've got another one of you out there.

[DaddyTorgo]

if you vote me it will be game over essentially, and the wolves will have won.

they'll night-kill one of you, and then 2-1 vote you the next day with nightfall.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

if you guys see it as either cronin or me, I suggest (obviously) that you vote cronin, because I am 100% student, that much I know.

I think the bigger issue to look at here is that cronin and I are not both wolves (because I know I'm not) so even if cronin is (which I suspect he is) then you still have one wolf in with the 3 of you (hoops, ntn, cr). Now if cronin is actually a student too, then we're screwed, because you'll off one of us, it'll be 2-2 and the game will be over after the night-kill when the wolves go up 2-1.

So essentially this vote today is for the game. I'm comfortable voting cronin, but it worries me that there is either 1 or 2 wolves still left within the 3 of you who are not "on the block" that are driving the action. And why would they be driving it toweards myself+cronin unless they knew both of us were innocent?

does that make any sense? it's always seemed to me that at endgame you should almost do the opposite of what the most vocal person/people want you to do, because at that point they're likely wolves trying to end it.

so all i'm saying is...let's just be sure on cronin in our own minds+hearts before we vote, and not be swayed by anyone's argument

I hear where you're coming from. But from where I stand, what is most important is the evidence. Is your scenario a possibility? Of course it is. But I am fairly certain we have at least one wolf amongst the two of you. If we make the right choice and kill that wolf, we still have some breathing room and can do more scans tonight to give us more information. I would welcome a scan myself, for instance, or one for hoops, as both of us have been "under scanned" by comparison. It would be nice to be close to cleared (or as much as you can be), so we can truly form a circle of trust at this late stage.

I see ntn moving against DT, but I just think there is too much evidence against st. cronin. So I'm going with cronin.

VOTE ST. CRONIN

[hoopsguy]

Chief, I'm willing to put the vote on Cronin today - it would be terrible luck for him to come back as wolf to dead villagers in each of the first two days.

I was leaning towards DT if your scan on him came up as wolf, but I'm more sure on you than I am on NTN - last night's scan notwithstanding. I'm pretty sure one, but not both, of DT and NTN are a wolf.

[DaddyTorgo]

interesting how cronin+ntn were the ones moving against me hmm? perhaps trying to pick up one of you two so they could knock me off and end the game? wouldn't be THAT bold of a play in an endgame scenario