Invasion of Ukraine

[PilotMan]

but if that's the case it should be something that the regional leadership takes charge of. It's not something that should be decided from the US. If the US is asked to bring support, then it should consider it, and the method that works best to support the decision makers closer to Ukraine.

[JPhillips]

We should band together and buy a Russian bank.

“Sberbank was down 99.72% year-to-date to trade for around a single penny on Wednesday, while Gazprom was down 93.71%, Lukoil 99.2%, Polyus 95.58%, Rosneft 92.52% and EN+ 20.51%” https://t.co/aLcHPagfuG

— Allahpundit (@allahpundit) March 3, 2022

[PilotMan]

At what point does the country simply buy them out and take over?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Considering the bravery of the Ukrainians, the unprofessionalism of the Russian military, and the united nature of the world response, things are going about as well as they possibly could at this point.

And Putin still has the ability (and, it appears, the plan based on the French reports of their talks with Russia) to either take over Ukraine, grind it into dust, or some combination of the two.

I'm still wondering about the endgame here. Putin will not turn tail and run. And Ukraine is not giving up. And millions of civilians are in the way.

Someone really, really, really needs to get rid of Putin.

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Yeah, this is my nagging feeling too. All the sanctions in the world probably aren't going to stop Putin from completely leveling the entire country if that's what it takes. Which it might, but nobody is willing to step in militarily to prevent that, so...

Yeah, we've reached the point where he basically said, "fine, I'm not doing this the way the US does where they try (yes, try and sometimes fail) to just hit military targets and leave everything else intact for their bs nation building". Instead, he's pivoted to "this is war and if I have to bomb every square inch of the ground to take it, so be it". This shouldn't be all that surprising, considering how much he's talked about how there is no such thing as a Ukrainian - they're all Russians. Anyone who disagrees will just be killed and he'll rebuild it in Russia's image.

I guess this is similar to my assessment on Monday with a healthier dose of "oh, right, even if Ukraine holds out for a while, they still aren't going to be able to hold their entire country from Russia for the duration without more help in terms of boots on the ground and planes in the sky.

Originally Posted by sterlingice

It also looked like they were trying to go "minimal casualty", as much as you can during wartime. Yes, there were some civilians killed, but they looked a lot more like accidental attacks not deliberate. They were hoping to just take over the Ukrainian government and leave most things intact - better to not have to use your own money to rebuild your future colonies. It feels like in the last 48 hours, Putin may have pivoted to actually wiping the Ukrainians off the face of the earth, even without using nukes. He called in the Chechens with the brutal reputation (and they were promptly killed). There's been more targeting of civilians, more hits on infrastructure like the gas pipelines and storage, etc. If he wants to ratchet things up, direct fighting towards some more critical areas "accidentally" hit that dam which takes out electricity and floods a number of towns, hit the nuclear waste supply depots, fight near water treatment plants and accidentally cripple those - that sort of thing.

I really have no idea where this goes from Putin getting "suicided" to protracted war with atrocities to more strategic goals where Russia pulls back from fortified Kiev and concentrates on the eastern part of the country.

I also think that Biden and the EU have been very clear over and over - we can keep supplying you with arms but we can't actually fight for you or enforce a no fly around you. And, if that's the case, Russia's just going to grind them down with numbers and artillery. Throughout history, Russia has never been one to care if they kill a bunch of peasants, theirs or anyone else's.

SI

[PilotMan]

Which means that it's more or less a foregone conclusion. The next part will be the important one, where Russia is completely excluded and shut down on the global stage, and the sanctions are so high, and the punishment felt so far and wide across every facet of Russian life that nobody ever can forget or forgive until things are made right. If that means complete exclusion from global events, sports, business, personal property to repay war debts, etc, so be it.

Again, this is a choice for Europe and they need to stand with conviction whichever path they choose.

[flere-imsaho]

At some point the odds of a coup have to start getting somewhere realistic.

[sterlingice]

By all accounts, isn't he in some bunker in the Urals with his yes-iest of yes men, likely his elite guards (I assume he has some), and some oligarchs he's basically keeping prisoner? Can't he sell now that "see, it's now starting to go according to plan after some initial foul ups" and anyone there will back down. And anyone else won't be able to get within a km of him? Plus, he's probably like "we'll just nationalize Gazprom, Rozneft, etc and I'll give them back to you when things calm down - just like I made you powerful before, I can do it again". Now, if I were an oligarch, I wouldn't trust him any further than I could throw him, but the other play is probably even riskier to them.

More EDIT: I mean, it seems easy to be like "hey, I'm oligarch #1 and if I kill him - we can have our country back, right, western world?" I doubt it's that easy as I'm sure the Russian people wouldn't be all that excited about losing a war, being lied to, etc.

SI

[Solecismic]

Putin has enacted new laws with stiff penalties for airing news with "misinformation," which has caused the somewhat independent news networks operating in Russia to close, their directors literally fleeing the country as it's likely they would be jailed.

Rumors are that Putin will declare martial law soon. To the average Russian, this isn't going to seem like their dictator has gone mad. It's going to seem like Ukraine is attacking the good Russians of eastern Ukraine, we were trying to defend them and then the evil US came in and now we're at the brink of WWIII.

The question is how much from the internet trickles through anyway. How many Russians are aware of what's going on? Protests are met with immediate arrest, so what are the chances that increases? I'm sure they're working on a way to filter internet access the way China does.

As long as Xi props up the Russian economy and there's a market for Russian oil, coal and gas, Putin can do this. We can admire Ukrainian resolve as they suffer what we can't even imagine, but I don't see how they can hold up because Putin is clearly willing to bomb apartment buildings and cut off supply lines.

[Edward64]

Interesting tidbit.

Not sure what to think about it. In a way, I like that US is thinking to force them to pick a side. On the other hand, think its okay for countries to be neutral if it's really not in their strategic national interest.

But it's not as if the US-West have been buddies with India militarily, Russia supplies more arms and supported them vs Pakistan. However, on the other hand, the US has a much bigger economic benefit to India. India is in a tough spot.

U.S. recalls cable saying India and UAE are “in Russia’s camp�

The State Department has recalled a cable to U.S. diplomats that instructed them to inform counterparts from India and the United Arab Emirates their position of neutrality on Ukraine put them "in Russia's camp," Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The recall of the strongly worded cable indicates either a process error with a fabled and vital work product — or a policy dispute inside the U.S. government involving two key allies.

[Edward64]

My global consulting company announced they are discontinuing our business in Russia. This impacts approx 2,300 Russians. Company will provide support to those impacted (no details).

Don't know how I feel about this. We are really frakkin with the livelihood of 2,300 innocent Russians that can't control what their government does. I hope we continue to provide "wage/severance" to them (in USD of course) for a long time.

I'm sure we have presence in Ukraine also. Not sure what's happening there.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

At some point the odds of a coup have to start getting somewhere realistic.

Depends on whether they win or lose.

Finish the mission - despite the initial Keystone Cops look of things -- and I'd say that's a near-zero chance.

And a not insignificant portion of the country will hail him as a hero for -- as they see it -- retaking what should never have been lost in the first place.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Edward64

My global consulting company announced they are discontinuing our business in Russia. This impacts approx 2,300 Russians. Company will provide support to those impacted (no details).

Don't know how I feel about this. We are really frakkin with the livelihood of 2,300 innocent Russians that can't control what their government does. I hope we continue to provide "wage/severance" to them (in USD of course) for a long time.

I'm sure we have presence in Ukraine also. Not sure what's happening there.

Putin seems to be trying to transition Russia back into a communist nation, aligned with China.

I don't know what livelihood will mean to the Russians who aren't part of the government. I don't think Putin cares. And if Putin doesn't care, we can't do much. It's just a different world. We have to accept that somehow. This is a major reset of world power and China is determined to make sure the US no longer has that place of leadership.

When Biden went to Xi with our knowledge of Russia's plans, he laughed and shared that information with Putin. It was all good for Xi as long as Putin waited until the Olympics ended. We know what's happening now. It's going to impact all of us.

Here we are, confiscating yachts and worrying about the stock market while it's really a question of whether the rather short-term (by civilization standards) approach of Democracy can hold up to dictators who don't care about the individuals who don't have the power to vote them out of office.

[Lathum]

The company that supports the reservation systems for the largest Russian airline has stopped servicing them rendering them basically useless.

[kingfc22]

Russians now firing at and causing a fire at the largest nuclear power plant in Ukraine.

[GrantDawg]

It is actually the largest plant in Europe. Tenth largest in the world. What could possibly go wrong?

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[GrantDawg]

The fighting is actually on the inside of the plant, and the sounds like the Russians are purposely destroying plant controls. They are legitimately purposely trying to cause a nuclear disaster.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Putin seems to be trying to transition Russia back into a communist nation, aligned with China.

In what way are they transitioning to communism? That would be a huge blow to Putin's finances and there have been zero signs of any nationalization taking place.

[RainMaker]

So none of the sanctions being brought against oligarchs will include Abramovich. Biden is an incredible coward.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The fighting is actually on the inside of the plant, and the sounds like the Russians are purposely destroying plant controls. They are legitimately purposely trying to cause a nuclear disaster.

Russian soldiers might not have thought this one through.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Russian soldiers might not have thought this one through.

Their capabilities thus far have shown to be pretty incompetent. Almost makes one wonder what the true state of their nuclear arsenal actually is.

[RainMaker]

Clip of intense firefights at the nuclear power plant. Video shows Russian forces engaging one of the buildings. pic.twitter.com/V6URDQiNv3

— Global: MilitaryInfo (@Global_Mil_Info) March 4, 2022

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Putin seems to be trying to transition Russia back into a communist nation, aligned with China.

How is 2022 Russia communist? They look a lot more like turn of the 20th century hyper capitalist en route to feudalism.

SI

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

How is 2022 Russia communist? They look a lot more like turn of the 20th century hyper capitalist en route to feudalism.

SI

Transitioning. If Putin imposes martial law. Presumably, the government will absorb the function of the corporations that no longer have international value. They already don't have free elections, and the laws that prevented a president from being in office no more than eight years were circumvented to allow Putin to continue his role (in name, Medvedev was president for four years, then Putin came back and terms were changed to six years).

Your point about feudalism is certainly valid (I don't know what hyper-capitalism is). Putin does seem to see himself more as tsar than Stalin. But both systems (sorry Bolsheviks, you ended up killing millions over essentially laundry) are extremely similar.

[RainMaker]

They are not transitioning to communism. The opposite if anything. Where in the world are you getting this stuff from?

[Edward64]

Zelenskyy said there are about 16K foreign volunteers inbound to help out (and presumably more). Reading below sub, seems they are only taking people with real combat experience. Bring your own body armor but weapons supplied.

16K is pretty significant. Question is can they be integrated quickly enough.

Reddit - Dive into anything

[GrantDawg]

Firefighters have finally been allowed to fight the fire. It is in the training building luckily. No damage to any radioactive containments.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[JPhillips]

Not everything authoritarian is communist. It can't be communism without state ownership of the means of production.

[RainMaker]

Would You Mind Not Shooting At The Thermo Nuclear Weapon? - YouTube

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Firefighters have finally been allowed to fight the fire. It is in the training building luckily. No damage to any radioactive containments.

Better educated Redditors say it won't be another Chernobyl. Not sure I buy that in a worse case like reactor coolant is bombed.

On other news, a Russian Major General has been killed, supposedly by a sniper. I guess he's important guy but a "deputy commander" doesn't seem "that" important.

A top Russian general has been killed amid bitter fighting in Ukraine in what represents a major blow to the Russian invasion.

Major General Andrey Sukhovetsky, who was the deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army of Russia's Central Military District, died yesterday as Ukrainian defence forces repelled the Russian offensive.

[tarcone]

Im sure it was a Russian sniper.

[Solecismic]

Cobbling together some links... with communism, simply the inevitable result of the state absorption of industry, breaking off from the rest of the world, modeling China's system, abandoning the pretense of free elections, martial law, etc.

Not the kind of philosophy that Stalin or Lenin would have espoused. The White Movement that Putin talks about was not a philosophy - more a form of control that looks more like a monarchy or a tsarist system. I think Putin thinks of himself in the tsar mold.

This, from last year, written by Putin:

The Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians - Modern Diplomacy

This analysis, from a journalist who has been banned from visiting Russia:

Thomas de Waal on Twitter: "1 “The resolution of the Ukraine question.� A mistakenly published Russian article gives us a chilling insight into the neo-imperialist thinking in Russia that drives Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine. A (long) THREAD."

The wikipedia article on Imperialism, which helps explain how different ideologies work in a global economy (I don't know how it's possible to parse all these concepts together).

Theories of imperialism - Wikipedia

The most important piece is Putin's rambling history. He feels he's restoring something specific, and that doesn't necessarily fit any theory or ideology. To him, fairness means taking the pieces of history he likes and discarding the pieces he feels are disrepectful of the ones he considers important.

He views the end of the Cold War and the dismantling of the USSR as capitulation and a wrong that needs to be righted. Change is not possible. He connects the land of Ukraine to the tsar-era people who ruled it. And the Bolshevik Revolution as something that arbitrarily divided it.

I didn't know that part at all. But I think it explains why he's all about Kyiv and now we even see battle maps that indicate Moldova is in danger. He doesn't care how he gets to the end as long as he restores what he thinks he should restore.

[Edward64]

That would end or de-escalate this nightmare.

I've always wondered why a top NK soldier/politician don't take out the crazy kid (do a John Wick with a pencil). That person must know there is a bigger and better world out there, and NK is prevented from rejoining because of the crazy kid. But 3 generation of crazy rulers and still no progress.

@LindseyGrahamSC
Is there a Brutus in Russia? Is there a more successful Colonel Stauffenberg in the Russian military?

The only way this ends is for somebody in Russia to take this guy out.

You would be doing your country - and the world - a great service.

[RainMaker]

The Communist Party in Russia is literally the opposition party. Putin is a crony capitalist. In fact, may be the greatest capitalist the world has ever seen.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

That would end or de-escalate this nightmare.

I've always wondered why a top NK soldier/politician don't take out the crazy kid (do a John Wick with a pencil). That person must know there is a bigger and better world out there, and NK is prevented from rejoining because of the crazy kid. But 3 generation of crazy rulers and still no progress.

Always wondered if that was the reason he used those comically large tables for meetings.

Authoritarian leaders used to choose people with families to be their closest guards. Theory was that they wouldn't do something because the result would be their families bearing the consequences.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Always wondered if that was the reason he used those comically large tables for meetings.

This was my assumption.

[CrimsonFox]

Russian Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky killed by Ukrainians in blow to Putin | The Independent

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by tarcone

Im sure it was a Russian sniper.

lolol

[JonInMiddleGA]

Not sure if already mentioned or not, just in case.

This is YT's "Bald and Bankrupt" with about 15-20 minutes from his departure by train from Kyiv as tanks approached the city.

It's remarkablyunpolitical, remarkably unsensationalized, it's really his normal style of filming people and places just in a very abnormal situation.

I'd bet that it'll be different than most people's expectations, well worth the watch IMO.

https://youtu.be/2bNzjBJF_G0

[JPhillips]

Great info on Russian airborne troops being more political police than special forces.

Since WWII there were only three cases when Russian paratroopers were actually dropped on the enemy from the air:

Hungary 1956
Czechoslovakia 1968
Ukraine 2022

Ergo, paratroopers act as paratroopers only when they don't expect resistance from another regular army pic.twitter.com/Hxxzkj4EvW

— Kamil Galeev (@kamilkazani) March 3, 2022

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

We should band together and buy a Russian bank.

“Sberbank was down 99.72% year-to-date to trade for around a single penny on Wednesday, while Gazprom was down 93.71%, Lukoil 99.2%, Polyus 95.58%, Rosneft 92.52% and EN+ 20.51%” https://t.co/aLcHPagfuG

— Allahpundit (@allahpundit) March 3, 2022

Kentucky teacher retirement system was the second-largest shareholder of Sberbank. $13M invested down to $778K.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Kentucky teacher retirement system was the second-largest shareholder of Sberbank. $13M invested down to $778K.

Holy shit, that is brutal. Do you know what company manages that account?

[sovereignstar v2]

Looks like Kentucky TRS has over 20 billion in assets. 13 million doesn't seem like much.

[sterlingice]

I'm assuming the US does kindof want Ukraine to win this war. And, yes, there's a value to just weakening Russia. And, yes, I get that we can't go in without a risk of WW3.

But I feel like the window for Ukraine to actually "win" this war is narrow. And I think the most impactful thing we could do would be to provide them with anti-air and anti-tank defense. Anti-tank, we're doing the best we can - lots of personal surface-to surface missiles. We've also sent some anti-air but those come with limitations. And, well, we can't just drop missile systems and trucks in there. But the whole "give them planes" should be a no-brainer. Like what fell apart there? Isn't there some way to trade F-14s for Migs or F-14s and baseball's best friend "cash considerations" for Migs that would help with this problem? Or maybe see if Ukraine just happens to have some foreign nationals that have A-10 flight experience?

SI

[Lathum]

We need to stop calling it a war and start calling it genocide.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I'm assuming the US does kindof want Ukraine to win this war. And, yes, there's a value to just weakening Russia. And, yes, I get that we can't go in without a risk of WW3.

But I feel like the window for Ukraine to actually "win" this war is narrow. And I think the most impactful thing we could do would be to provide them with anti-air and anti-tank defense. Anti-tank, we're doing the best we can - lots of personal surface-to surface missiles. We've also sent some anti-air but those come with limitations. And, well, we can't just drop missile systems and trucks in there. But the whole "give them planes" should be a no-brainer. Like what fell apart there? Isn't there some way to trade F-14s for Migs or F-14s and baseball's best friend "cash considerations" for Migs that would help with this problem? Or maybe see if Ukraine just happens to have some foreign nationals that have A-10 flight experience?

SI

They can't win the war because they cannot invade Russia. All they can do is drag it out to the point of stalemate or regime change.

Neither will happen, Russia will send as much in resources to grind away humanity in Ukraine. If they cannot win, they will eradicate.

Russia will also not replace Putin. He's got a firm grasp.

Ukraine will be whittled away. The occupation zones will be devoid of humanity but will fly the Russian flag.

If Ukraine were to mount an offensive in Russia, I'm pretty sure Putin would use the nuclear option to deal with it. Small war heads against military targets, with international rebuke, to full scale warheads of cities.

The West will do nothing.

If Putin can't have Ukraine, then he'll make it uninhabitable. If the West allows for it, he'll go after other former Soviet Bloc nations, all with China shrugging.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

Looks like Kentucky TRS has over 20 billion in assets. 13 million doesn't seem like much.

Perhaps, but the retirement system funding has been a huge issue in this state and one that the former governor/asshole Matt Bevin went to war directly at teachers over, and it cost him the governor's seat (well-deserved, not just for this but a litany of things) to a Democrat in a slate of state executive officer races heavily backed by Trump in which he was the only GOPer to lose. Like, it wasn't just a civil disagreement with the teachers union over how best to handle the problem, dude directly attacked teachers time and time again at press conferences and stuff. Part of his attempt to be a mini-Trump with all of the kindness but none of the "charm."

In 2019, the Kentucky Employees Retirement System was only 16.5% funded, making it one of the worst-funded pension plans in the country, according to data from the Center on Retirement Research at Boston College.

Which is to say, I expect this will make some waves in the state even if it's a relative drop in the bucket.

[MrBug708]

The latest news is that they sold their shares last month

[Poli]

My sister's husband is from Russia. Her brother in law is in the Russian army. He was along the border just before this started. They haven't heard from him since the day before the invasion is my understanding.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

But the whole "give them planes" should be a no-brainer. Like what fell apart there? Isn't there some way to trade F-14s for Migs or F-14s and baseball's best friend "cash considerations" for Migs that would help with this problem? Or maybe see if Ukraine just happens to have some foreign nationals that have A-10 flight experience?
SI

I haven't read why it fell apart. Maybe it was never a done deal but Ukraine decided to publicize it anyway. If anyone know how it started and how it fell apart, appreciate a link.

But yeah, some European countries had some MIGs that Ukraine would fly. So like do a swap for NATO F-16 jets. Googling says $30M sticker.

Presumably, one of the reasons the F-16 remains so popular is its cost. With a roughly $30 million price tag, an F-16 sells for less than 80% of the sticker price of Sukhoi's Flanker. Lockheed's savvy move to begin producing the F-16 in India, moreover, promises to help the F-16 undercut the competition on price for years.

I read that A-10 (Bbbrrrrrttttttt) would be sitting ducks if no air superiority (or cover).

Even if more air will help, they will eventually get shot down or have maintenance issues. If I had to pick one, I'd go with zillions of Stingers & Javelins (and a bunch of other military weapons, equipment) and then wink-wink at NATO non-active combat veterans that want to go over.

[Edward64]

I do think Kyiv and eventually rest of Ukraine will fall. But man, those Ukrainians are tough fighters.

I do hope the (supposed) 16K volunteer foreign fighters (and counting) can really help.