WW LXVI: Money Money Money (Game Over!)

[Alan T]

In reply to one of Hoops's earlier posts

Perhaps you should weigh risk/reward then on the amount of money you have vs conversion cost. If you are going to give them more than they would give up converting you, then yes I can see the point about moving money around.

Since Lathum was a villager though, unless you started off bad, it would cost far more to convert you than they would make back.. or am I missing something? I can see as time goes on that might change as we get 15k each day though.

[Schmidty]

But wouldn't it make the most sense for the wolves to convert the cleared person the very next night, because of the exact reason you just gave?

Originally Posted by Alan T

This was my attempted post in reply to Schmidty:

I don't think the differences in this game changes my fundamental belief in how to handle possible conversions. I think you have to go for people who aren't cleared and are possible wolves before you go for people who are cleared and trying to take a stab in the dark at a conversion.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, in terms of conversions I would like the Cutthroats to assume a 100K figure. That may or may not be the number they need to bid.

I start with 30K in assets, as does Lathum. We both don't win services (may or may not be true) and get 15K at night for casting a Day 1 vote. My net worth is now around 90K. Add on the value of generating trust, plus the fact that I can silently move money to a comrade if I'm in trouble, and it is probably worth it for them to try and convert me tonight since I'll be getting another 15K for putting in a vote.

Now, the above numbers are not reflective of current state. I had to burn 10K naming a new beneficiary. Either Lathum or I may have obtained services, he may have had on-hand money, etc. But the money does add up quickly, to the point where even a 100K investment doesn't seem that rash as I look at it from their perspective.

Oh, and one more point - if they are converting people that is one less 15K vote per day for us and one more 15K vote per day for them. I think that is pretty significant. If I was a Cutthroat I would be trying to figure out who are the most likely to set low bribe costs just for that value alone. Any extra cash they bring to the table is just a bonus.

[Alan T]

To Schmidty: I'm not sure, I guess the answer to some of the questions Hoops asked regarding if bodyguard can block conversion attempts would come into play.

[Alan T]

To Hoops: I understand your point, and you have to do what you think is best with your money. I guess i would just assume you would be looking into things like spending money on a bodyguard if you are good and get revealed as such, plus changing beneficiary, etc. In my mind it just seemed like for them to convert you would cost them more money than its worth just yet.

I think that the conversation has gotten a bit off track from what I was looking for though. I was making just a side comment regarding how I would handle the money.

[Alan T]

Sorry to all for all of the short posts. It seems for anything to go through for me with where I am posting from today, I have to keep them short.

I guess I'll use the Ardent posting style today.. Alot of small posts!

[Alan T]

Hoops, what were your thoughts regarding Lathum's death and what it means in regards to all of the people you looked at last night? You brought up the names Tyrith, Passacaglia and then Chief jumped in the middle as well of your discussion. What does Lathum being good mean to you regarding those three?

[hoopsguy]

Main point that I take from last night is that Tyrith's post was fairly quick to make Lathum the swing vote on the Swaggs runaway. As I watched it go down I saw a couple of votes come in pretty quick succession:

4:58 Lathum
4:59 Passacaglia
5:11 RendeR

And I didn't have the vibe that Lathum was a swing vote, at least not in the sense that there was a dogfight between two candidates and he created some major shift.

Pass defending Lathum - obviously the "two wolves" idea is out the window, although I never take those notions all that seriously. It is hard enough to catch one wolf. I still don't know why Pass would semi-defend Lathum, unless he was worried about the timing on his own vote coming into question.

Chief - outside of the fact he has voted for me twice, I don't have a strong sense for him one way or the other.

[RendeR]

I may have missed this earlier in the thread, but what happens if someone has no beneficiary? Did anyone have Lathum as theirs? Are you forced now to spend 10K to name a new one?

[Alan T]

Render:

I had Swaggs as my beneficiary to start the game. I didn't get any notice from BK regarding it or such, but my understanding was that I either didn't change it (and if I die, money disappears?) or I had to pay 10k to change it to someone else.

If anyone had Lathum they are in the same situation as me now.

[hoopsguy]

RendeR, I had Swaggs as mine. I asked a few questions, here are the answers I got.

No beneficiary = bank money disappears from game on death
You don't have to spend 10K on a new one if you are not so inclined. But the consequences are that the money is gone (for better or worse).
I believe you can name a beneficiary as either a day or night action. I would double-check with BK on this, as I used a night action to do this after Swaggs was removed from the game.

[RendeR]

THanks guys!

I'm fine for now, but I was curious on that note. Great replies =)

[Alan T]

Hoops just likes copying what I say and making it his own!

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I have never had an original werewolf thought in my career. I just like to borrow from big thinkers like you

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Main point that I take from last night is that Tyrith's post was fairly quick to make Lathum the swing vote on the Swaggs runaway. As I watched it go down I saw a couple of votes come in pretty quick succession:

4:58 Lathum
4:59 Passacaglia
5:11 RendeR

And I didn't have the vibe that Lathum was a swing vote, at least not in the sense that there was a dogfight between two candidates and he created some major shift.

Blah, blah, blah, you keep barking us this same tree of acting like I was out to get Lathum :P It was merely pointing out any little thing that happens -- the same thing certain other people used to do, and which you're doing now. Which is fine, except you're carrying it an awful long way, which is not. Hopefully you'll find some new small post to harp on :P

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, I'm all for finding new small posts to harp on - what have you seen up to this point that has caught your eye?

I would love to be making a more informed decision on Day 2 than Day 1. I'm not married to the idea of pursuing this line of thought, but it is the best I have at the moment.

So far I've seen Alan, Tyrith, Saldana, RendeR, Jackal, Clap, and Pass in the thread this AM. I think SnDvls was here as well, but I'm not sure on this one. So more than half of the people still around in the game. I'm hoping someone has information to help us with a decision today.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm hoping someone has information to help us with a decision today.

Me too. I see no reason for the seer not to reveal his findings at this point. First of all, he wouldn't be putting himself in danger, since he's not "The Seer" -- he's just the guy who won the bid today. In fact, he's probably in less danger by revealing, since that means he has less money. Am I missing something?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alan, I have never had an original werewolf thought in my career. I just like to borrow from big thinkers like you

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Me too. I see no reason for the seer not to reveal his findings at this point. First of all, he wouldn't be putting himself in danger, since he's not "The Seer" -- he's just the guy who won the bid today. In fact, he's probably in less danger by revealing, since that means he has less money. Am I missing something?

Only that it would make him a conversion target. But we're so well aware of that possibility that it kind of mitigates that risk.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Only that it would make him a conversion target. But we're so well aware of that possibility that it kind of mitigates that risk.

Right. And if we find out about the results of the scan after a possible conversion, that makes the issue more muddled. At least if we find out now, we'll have some information we can do something with before that happens.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tyrith, I'm all for finding new small posts to harp on - what have you seen up to this point that has caught your eye?

I would love to be making a more informed decision on Day 2 than Day 1. I'm not married to the idea of pursuing this line of thought, but it is the best I have at the moment.

So far I've seen Alan, Tyrith, Saldana, RendeR, Jackal, Clap, and Pass in the thread this AM. I think SnDvls was here as well, but I'm not sure on this one. So more than half of the people still around in the game. I'm hoping someone has information to help us with a decision today.

Only that about half the game is saying absolutely nothing. It's early, I understand, but in this kind of a situation it's easy for the wolves to let us forget the old punish the UTR strategy and let us bark at each other because the ones doing any talking are the only ones providing any potential evidence. If our current course continues it'd be too easy for them to let us bark up the wrong tree.

Not having the BG last night is lame; it cuts our info count in half. But regardless of the conversion risk I'm pretty sure the N1 seer should reveal what happened, just to give us a stick to poke the hornet's nest with.

[hoopsguy]

Well, making an assumption about order of actions:

- conversion prior to seer scan

then by revealing the scanned party every member of the Rich would have two people that they trust for today's vote. So there would be 14 eligible voting candidates instead of 15. Probably not a huge percentage difference, but I'll take it if it is offered.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Right. And if we find out about the results of the scan after a possible conversion, that makes the issue more muddled. At least if we find out now, we'll have some information we can do something with before that happens.

Pretty much. It's worth it to us to have the information out there now just so we have the beginning of a basis for orientation in this game. It's too easy in these situations to go randomly lynching people for several days -- although if we do that, I'd much rather it be the quiet people for now, just to see if/how they squirm.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tyrith, I'm all for finding new small posts to harp on - what have you seen up to this point that has caught your eye?

I would love to be making a more informed decision on Day 2 than Day 1. I'm not married to the idea of pursuing this line of thought, but it is the best I have at the moment.

So far I've seen Alan, Tyrith, Saldana, RendeR, Jackal, Clap, and Pass in the thread this AM. I think SnDvls was here as well, but I'm not sure on this one. So more than half of the people still around in the game. I'm hoping someone has information to help us with a decision today.

I was fire drilling Gotta love 45 min firedrills!

[hoopsguy]

I wish that BK had answered the questions I asked earlier - going to post them again to make sure they don't get lost.

BK, can you comment on the following?

Barkeep, can the bodyguard protect against a bribe?

Barkeep, do the Cutthroats have any (inherent) abilities beyond those available for purchase by all players? I didn't see anything in the rules one way or the other on this.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, can the bodyguard protect against a bribe?

I just PMed Barkeep about this, and he said no. Unfortunate.

[hoopsguy]

Anyone else have thoughts on the possible money strategies I outlined in Post #290? I had some conversation with Alan on it, but haven't heard from anyone else:

Also, I'm up for the idea of spreading the wealth among players to some extent today. I figure I have a few options available:
1.) spread the wealth out among players - this minimizes my risk of being a wolf target at night. It also minimizes the risk that would be inherent of giving a big pile of money to any one player. If I do this I would probably select 3+ players to "gift" between now and the end of the day
2.) keep the money with the intent of going big for a service
3.) keep the money with the idea of stockpiling cash to help out my team since I know with 100% certainty that I'm "Rich" and don't have that certainty for anyone else

I'm willing to listen to suggestions, either on these three ideas or alternative plans.

[Passacaglia]

I like 1 the most, probably.

2 has merit, but we still don't know if we can trust you. Do you feel comfortable talking about what service you'd want to get?

3 just seems like you're just waiting to be bribed, or are already a cutthroat.

[Tyrith]

1 sounds good, although I'd definitely wait until late in the day to do it. There's not a service that you should spend enough money on today that will make you not rich, in my opinion. And 3, well, I don't really trust you that much right now, so I'd honestly prefer having some of the money out of your hands.

[hoopsguy]

Option 2 - if I bid for a service it will be one where I'm basically trying to get the one I think that the Cutthroats want most. So they either have to go very high to get it or I keep it from them. Beyond that, I don't see much of a reason to explicitly declare which service it may (or may not) be.

Option 3 - I'm not asking to be converted, but I understand that anyone is going to be susceptible to a 100K bribe (or less, depending on the person). So I would prefer to have that out in the open rather than minimized.

What I'm leaning towards doing right now is issuing 3-4 grants of 5K to different players between now and the deadline. That should help reduce my overall net worth, and attractiveness for a bribe attempt, while giving me the (perceived) flexibility to go big after a service.

[Alan T]

Hoops if you are indeed good and do decide to go after a service, I think you should try for the telecommunication service. That seems the one most likely for the wolves to go after. And perhaps by even suggesting going after it, might cause them to spend a fortune to do it.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I think that Telecomm is the most interesting - all of the other services would once again be on the table in coming days. It is a safe bet that I'm strongly considering this service.

[Arles]

Sorry I missed the vote - was busy taking care of the boy yesterday and forgot to log on (didn't go to work). I'll try to catch up and get back in this thing.

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to have a lot less availability to chat over the next few hours, so if people have thoughts on early trust lists I would love to hear them. I've got my own ideas about who I might shift 5K to over the course of the day, but I'm also willing to take feedback from others on who they think should be slightly more trusted at this stage in the game.

[Alan T]

I don't have really any trust built up for anyone, as most everyone isn't talking and the only other person who is alot is you whom I'm waiting to see what the seer says about you.

Due to the lack of talking, I don't really have any un-trust list developed either though so far. With lack of an informed vote, I'll likely go with my gut feeling from earlier and vote Chief. I should be available most of today until about 3:30pm EST or so, so I'm just waiting to see what info we are given today. No real rush to get my vote out.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm going to have a lot less availability to chat over the next few hours, so if people have thoughts on early trust lists I would love to hear them. I've got my own ideas about who I might shift 5K to over the course of the day, but I'm also willing to take feedback from others on who they think should be slightly more trusted at this stage in the game.

I don't have a clue. Not enough chatter or info for me to make any kind of informed judgment.

[mauchow]

Hey, guys. Just checking in for the day and just wanted to let everyone know that I didn't win any of the prizes for the day since I invested it all in a CD. Not a whole lot going on so far at this point in time.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Anyone else have thoughts on the possible money strategies I outlined in Post #290? I had some conversation with Alan on it, but haven't heard from anyone else:

the problem w/ the spreading out of money...per the rules....you have to in thread say who is getting what money so it puts it out in the open and is pretty public too. I worry about the wolves having this info for free at this point.

[Alan T]

I managed to fix my posting issue.. but won't bore anyone with the details (unless anyone here is literally excited about running multiple GRE tunnels over MPLS clouds.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

the problem w/ the spreading out of money...per the rules....you have to in thread say who is getting what money so it puts it out in the open and is pretty public too. I worry about the wolves having this info for free at this point.

Yep, so those people will be flagged for having an extra 5K in cash. Everyone will know this, which is why I'm trying to diversify the money. I suppose I could make it even smaller increments and spread it out to a larger number of people. What do you think is the ideal way to accomplish this, given the understood risks/rewards?

I'm also fine with people suggesting that they DO NOT want to be "gifted" cash by me today.

[claphamsa]

Isnt the whole point to have more moeny? I mean woo gimme gimme

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Yep, so those people will be flagged for having an extra 5K in cash. Everyone will know this, which is why I'm trying to diversify the money. I suppose I could make it even smaller increments and spread it out to a larger number of people. What do you think is the ideal way to accomplish this, given the understood risks/rewards?

I'm also fine with people suggesting that they DO NOT want to be "gifted" cash by me today.

I am still trying to figure out what you have to gain from this other than one of the following two things:

1) Making yourself less attractive for a wolf night target
2) Paying out "bribes" so to speak for good will.

How many people are left right now? You plus 15 others? How many wolves do we think there are? 3+ convert? 4 +convert? So if you spread it out evenly among a handful of people, say 6 people you give 5k to, you end up having a decent chance of hitting 1 or 2 wolves in the bunch. So you basically gave away 10k in an attempt to do one of the above things.

I guess 10k isn't alot but its a 20k swing from one side to the other, and without knowing how much money you got from Lathum, that has to be a considerable chunk of what you gained.

I think in idea your thought is sound and something to consider for down the road when A) We know more about everyone else and B) The $ amounts are larger and more meaningful.

[claphamsa]

does the night end at 7 am every day? was wierd, I went to bed before the day actions were posted, and by the time I got to check the night actions were posted

Not a big deal unless I win a bid.....

[saldana]

ftr, i did not win any services yesterday

as far as the gifting of money goes, it has to be done publically in the thread, so spreading the money out will really only spread the target to those people that receive the money.

i think for now, it is best that everyone keep their money until we get a decent COT, after which, I have an idea or two about how to protect it.

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, I'm curious to hear how you think we'll be putting together a sustainable COT this game. Obviously seers reveals play a role but so far we don't have one for today. Are you thinking other actions are going to indicate loyalty?

[saldana]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Saldana, I'm curious to hear how you think we'll be putting together a sustainable COT this game. Obviously seers reveals play a role but so far we don't have one for today. Are you thinking other actions are going to indicate loyalty?

thats the part i havent really figured out yet.

assuming the cutthroats are able to buy the same services we are, there is nothing to protect us...seer scans are essentially worthless unless the person using it actually catches a Cutthroat, and unless the bodyguard service tells you that they saved your ass and who attacked you, we learn nothing from no kill nights

[hoopsguy]

So that is why I'm wondering about your money ideas, which you were suggesting would come into play after we have a decent COT.

I don't believe we'll have as good a COT in this game as we can establish in a traditional game, for better or worse. So I think it makes sense to share ideas now, even if they are in the open, rather than sit tight waiting for a COT that may or may not materialize.

[saldana]

dola, the only way we can get seer scans to work for us is if whomever won the service yesterday reveals today, and then the next person that wins today scans the previous days seer...continuing with that progression would give us 2 clears starting tomorrow, and one more each additional day

[hoopsguy]

Barkeep, can the Cutthroats execute both a bribe and an attack during the same evening cycle? Or do they have to choose between one and the other?

Another related question - is there a limit to how many bribe actions the Cutthroats can take? In an evening? Over the course of the game?

[saldana]

of course my whole plan goes straight to shit as soon as a cutthroat wins the bid, and then doesnt reveal anything, like it appears is happening today.