07-27-2011, 02:25 AM | #301 | |
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Oops! Might not be ideal revealing this if the wolves get the item if they night kill you. Eagle - what happens if you hold an item and the wolves kill you? |
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07-27-2011, 02:36 AM | #302 | |
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Think I've seen a thread about the problem somewhere on the site, but it might have been talked about in another thread. I suggest searching for the topic and if you don't find it posting a new thread in Off-Topic. |
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07-27-2011, 03:09 AM | #303 |
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Ok if Chief is a wolf then I think it looks decent for Bug as if he was a wolf I think he'd add his vote to one of the candidates early on. Lathum, I'm not sure. I think he's basically saying that people shouldn't vote Chief which is fair enough and all but could easily be a wolfy move. Don't really see Lathum going that route though.
If Chief is a villager and knowing that I'm a villager then I think we want to look at the people who make sure that the existing candidates get pushed ahead. I would be interested in hearing from Passa and NTN there. I agree that Jackal's moved vote gets him some trust, although it could also explain why Bhlloy was killed, as a wolf Jackal would be interested in showing that Bhlloy was also a villager. Doesn't really explain why he would move his vote in the first place though so I agree with Danny about Jackal deserving the most trust at the moment, making mau's vote today questionable (along with his dubious early vote yesterday ). Don't see it as a huge indictment of him though. Don't know why Autumn only mentioned the 4 he did to be honest as, as far as I can see there aren't many who posted much of significance yesterday. That's the nature of day ones but I'm more dubious of people who keep their post count up without really saying anything (Telle, Passa, Packer) rather than people who don't post at all. JAG only has 6 posts but he actually says something in his posts. |
07-27-2011, 03:15 AM | #304 |
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I may end up going back to Autumn.
On a separate note, I'm not really getting a wolfy vibe from Narc at the moment. |
07-27-2011, 03:45 AM | #305 |
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Vote ntndeacon
I think there's likely a wolf vote on bhlloy and I'm getting okayish vibes from the rest of the people on him - unsurprisingly I'm not getting any vibe from ntndeacon. Passa, DV and he pretty much decided which three-horse race would emerge. DV was a villager and I think we're likely to get more useful stuff out of Passa rather than Ntn. Not at all set on this vote though so I might be a-moving it later. |
07-27-2011, 04:24 AM | #306 | |
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Narc, you bring up a great point. We have 9 people on DV and only 5 alive not on DV. You have to figure it's more likely not all the wolves piled on Darth when both players were villagers. Especially since I am in the group of 5 (and I know my allegiance), I think that is a better place for a vote than where I have mine now. Unvote Mauboy Despite my earlier gut reads, I can't vote with that over a solid place to go in with the group of 5. My vote will likely land there (Lathum, Ntn, Jag or Mr. Bug) |
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07-27-2011, 08:35 AM | #307 | |
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I never realized that was Christopher Guest. |
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07-27-2011, 08:50 AM | #308 | |
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Hi! Personally, if you want to know my thoughts, I'm thinking dacman is the way to go. I know EagleFan sent him a PM to see what's up, but I have little patience for people who aren't even playing. I wouldn't necessarily keep my vote on him if he checked in, but I wouldn't necessarily move it just because he deigned to make one post or something. I think some votes for him have merit because they'll show us who defends him, and who votes for him to save other people. Quote:
My post count is up? I find that hard to believe. It's probably that I'm comparing it to my usual WW self. |
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07-27-2011, 08:51 AM | #309 |
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On that note...
VOTE DACMAN |
07-27-2011, 09:38 AM | #310 |
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On Dacman, I am willing to hear from Eagle as to what is being done.
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07-27-2011, 09:44 AM | #311 |
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In terms of early thoughts in the game. My fears lie with Wolf on wolf voting in early days. Especially with earlier folks...It is so easy to hide wolvishness in an early wolf vote on Day one. names 2 and 3 to be tossed out were Chief by JAG and NArcizo by PF. I tend to think if there is a wolf-wolf pair there I favor the Chief-JAG pairing rather than the Narc-PF one.
Therefore... Vote Chief Rum |
07-27-2011, 09:49 AM | #312 | ||
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Meh, not a great start. Going to be catching up a bit and going to be on and off today.
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I disagree. If the wolves were already thinking they were going to kill bhlloy, they would also know a late shift like that would look much more like a villager move than a wolf move. I would feel better about Jackal if bhlloy hadn't been the NK and we found out bhlloy's alligence ourselves. |
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07-27-2011, 10:09 AM | #313 | |
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I don't mind revealing whether or not I received it, but would it make more sense to keep this information secret for now? Do we know what the rules are in the event a person with the item is night-killed (do we go through another selection process?). I guess this exercise doesn't make that much sense thinking about it. If a wolf received it, they'll either claim they didn't or they'll reveal that they did to gain trust. I think best we can do is hope a villager received it and gets to use it as a half-duke at some point. |
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07-27-2011, 10:12 AM | #314 | |
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I disagree with this logic. You could most likely find a wolf in any random group of 5 players.. but there's a good chance you'll be wasting your time working through four villagers before you get to that wolf. This seems like a wolf move to get us to waste time with little return on investment. |
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07-27-2011, 10:15 AM | #315 |
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No word from dacman yet. If I don't hear from him by 5:00 I will ask CF to replace him (CF has volunteered). If it was a large game I would give him more time but with a small game time is more important.
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07-27-2011, 10:16 AM | #316 |
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If a person is killed while holding an item that item will be given to a random player.
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07-27-2011, 10:21 AM | #317 |
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As of post 316:
MrBug708 1 - Autumn (268) The Jackal 1 - mauboy1 (277) ntndeacon 1 - Narcizo (305) dacman 1 - Passacaglia (309) Chief Rum 1 - ntndeacon (311) |
07-27-2011, 10:24 AM | #318 | |
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My pet theory is that the wolves killed bhlloy to basically turn our vote on Day One into utterly meaninglessness. By showing bhlloy is a villager right away, we basically have another Day One in store for us on Day Two. This could be just to do just that--or it's possible that a wolf made a key vote in this one, and they don't want us to look at the voting at all for Day One.
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07-27-2011, 10:26 AM | #319 | |
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Ah ha, I glazed over this. PF basically said what I just did in my last post (but more succinctly).
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07-27-2011, 10:28 AM | #320 | |
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I did not get the powder either.
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07-27-2011, 10:29 AM | #321 |
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I'm not sure I agree with that. If we were villager-villager, wouldn't the wolves want us thinking we were wolf-villager, and following what is usually a wild-goose chase? I wonder if that means one of the late bhlloy voters was a wolf, and by showing us that bhlloy was a villager, they wanted to make sure we didn't look that way.
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07-27-2011, 10:30 AM | #322 |
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I suppose, looking back at the vote history, that darth votes narc and then mr.bug switches to narc, making him one of three contenders in the middle of the day. If Narc were bad, we could then look at votes following that to see who might have led things to Darth and Bhlloy.
It finally occurred to me that the wolves were likely hoping that Bhlloy was the scan last night, and that's why they offed him. Which makes it a better move than I thought. If he hadn't been killed we would probably be looking at people like PF who made last minute moves. So the other theory would be that it just so happened wolves made last minute moves (though clearly they didn't have to) and so they wanted to nip that in the bud. |
07-27-2011, 10:31 AM | #323 | |
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Late votes I see are Darth, who I have decent trust in (yes, that's a joke). Then Danny and JAG a little bit behind. Not sure what to make of The Jackal's unvote yet. |
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07-27-2011, 10:32 AM | #324 |
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Yeah, what they said.
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07-27-2011, 10:33 AM | #325 |
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07-27-2011, 10:35 AM | #326 |
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07-27-2011, 10:35 AM | #327 | |
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I don't get why you're calling those late votes when there's several voters that came in after that? You mean those were crucial ones and the others were piling on? |
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07-27-2011, 10:35 AM | #328 |
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On the same reasoning Danny gave for considering one of the four living voters on bhlloy, I have to consider Bug as a possibility, as the lone standout vote not on one of the two primaries yesterday. This can certainly be moved, but I can see a wolf Bug putting in his vote on Narc and then feeling that moving it would look wolfish later in review.
VOTE MRBUG
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
07-27-2011, 10:38 AM | #329 | |
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Bhlloy being killed doesn't, no. But the fact that he was piling on a done deal would make it an odd move for a wolf, knowing they're both villagers. Now it could be that he did it just to have a relevant vote, and then worried that it would draw attention, and so he killed bhlloy. He might have been worried that just leaving his vote on narc would draw attention as a wasted vote. |
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07-27-2011, 10:38 AM | #330 | |
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I meant late bhlloy votes. That was a continuation of my thoughts from two posts before (thanks for interrupting my dola). |
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07-27-2011, 10:45 AM | #331 | |
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That makes sense to me. It also seems telling that he was the first one to essentially say, "lets all ignore the votes, since we were villager-villager, and go back to square one" |
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07-27-2011, 10:46 AM | #332 | |
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I think Packer's voting yesterday is a bit weird altogether really. I'm not really sure I understand his reasoning for voting me. I thought he meant that I was around so I could reveal if I had to - although it would have to be a pretty big run on me to get me thinking about revealing by the time I have to leave the game. Then he doesn't like the run on Darth but votes him anyway. At the time it just looks like moving a throwaway vote to another throwaway vote. At the moment I tend to think that it's just villager weird rather than fangs and fur weird though. |
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07-27-2011, 10:47 AM | #333 | |
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But what if the wolves offed bhlloy because they thought it would add suspicion to those who voted bhlloy and they didn't have anyone voting him? I'll admit that would be rather unconventional for wolves to pile on someone D1, but for a reasonable part of the day the vote was spread out and only became bunched towards the end. I could see a wolf making a late move to DV under the idea that it's not a typical wolf move and because there was a general movement towards him at the end, so maybe they suspected there would be a larger pool of players to hide in. Gonna take a closer look at that when I can. |
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07-27-2011, 10:47 AM | #334 |
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I think it's hard to really tell what was happening with the late votes yesterday, given that both ended up being villagers. And I think the wolves know that, hence why they made the seemingly gutsy call. As I said last night, they were more for us wasting a day of history than anything it seems.
So for now, I will go with the only vote that wasn't in the craziness yesterday. VOTE MRBUG |
07-27-2011, 10:48 AM | #335 |
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Hmm, re-looking at the vote list, I might end up re-thinking that. I can't think of why a wolf would move his vote from Autumn to Narc in the middle of the day. I can see a villager doing this--starting off with an early vote on Autumn, and then when Autumn wasn't really a aprt of the growing list of candidates, switching to Narc (who had 3 votes at the time, 1 behind the leader) to make his vote relevant.
Unless Autumn and Bug are wolves together, and Bug did it to build early trust. But then Autumn's vote today is already on Bug, and that seems a bit forward for the whole "wolf on wolf to establish trust" plan. So I might end up switching off of Bug after all, but I'll leave it there noe and see what happens.
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07-27-2011, 10:51 AM | #336 | |
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The initial vote was simply getting one out there on someone who wasn't on the block yet but that I knew would be around to talk about it (rather than someone quiet at the time). My post about not liking the run on him came after I had seen that there was another vote on him while I was posting, and made me think that we were barking up the wrong tree - but I didn't like bhlloy anymore than DV, so why move my vote and draw my attention to myself (which I clearly did well enough without, heh) |
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07-27-2011, 10:51 AM | #337 | |
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I think that's very much possible, which is why I'm wary of voting that list, as appealing and fairly short as it may be. I think the idea that the wolves split their votes among candidates is a bit antiquated, I haven't noticed that as a strong tendency for a long time, really. They could very well all be bunched on darth (or if bug or dacman is a wolf, not even in the race). |
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07-27-2011, 10:52 AM | #338 | |
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Not sure about revealing with the powder then. Is it likely the wolves would kill someone for a random shot at getting hold of it? And how much weight should we put on that compared with the information of finding out if the wolves have the powder. I lean towards thinking it's worth revealing that you have it unless you also have a role. |
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07-27-2011, 10:53 AM | #339 |
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Woo! More than 50% participants in thread at the moment.
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07-27-2011, 10:55 AM | #340 | |
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Yeah, Bug's voting is what I'd expect from a villager. It's just a shame that he left it up to us to imply his thinking rather than just telling us what he thought. |
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07-27-2011, 10:58 AM | #341 | |
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Here, I am talking about MrBug, whom I had voted for earlier. You guys blitzed the thread with posts and removed the relevancy of my post.
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07-27-2011, 11:00 AM | #342 |
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07-27-2011, 11:01 AM | #343 | |
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Rethinking I kind of agree with you and I'm a bit surprised that my argument was enough to swing Danny of his own suspect list. On the other hand it's not my sole problem with ntn so I'm going to wait and see if the vote condenses somewhat before looking at other candidates. |
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07-27-2011, 11:03 AM | #344 |
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vote - The Jackal
I look later hopefully and see if I need to switch. Just didnt want to leave without voting |
07-27-2011, 11:04 AM | #345 | |
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lol... I did think it funny that when I posted up about Bug, re-thinking my vote, that PF had just followed up on my vote.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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07-27-2011, 11:07 AM | #346 |
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07-27-2011, 11:08 AM | #347 |
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07-27-2011, 11:08 AM | #348 |
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Not fully caught up yet, but my early inclination is I would be surprised if Autumn was a wolf, based on vibe and how he has previously admitted how he plays as a wolf. Danny is the one pinging me the most, but I'm hesitant to vote there at this point.
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07-27-2011, 11:13 AM | #349 |
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Aight, so two people have two votes already, and somehow PF doesn't have any. He's got to at least be considered in this thing.
UNVOTE DACMAN VOTE PACKERFANATIC |
07-27-2011, 11:14 AM | #350 |
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Oh wait, Bug actually has three votes -- I was assuming CR unvoted, but he has not.
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