Werewolf XLVI - Sun And Shadow (Game Thread) - Game Over! Cultists win!

[Swaggs]

Were you able to see who I used it on?

If so, we could form a semi-COT for the day, as I would be able to know that you were obviously not doing anything "Shadowish," and you obviously know that I was not.

[Mustang]

I'm starting to wonder if it would be best if we potentially start revealing roles to some degree. We are definitely going to need to get information about people from some of these roles. There are other roles that can lend protection if people leave themselves out in the open..

[BrianD]

I'm not sure revealing roles will be that much of a help today. It seems like the biggest help would be to let these roles work and wait until someone can be identified. Seems like there are roles and actions which should be able to identify the Shadow. This should be our main weapon.

[Joe]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Were you able to see who I used it on?

If so, we could form a semi-COT for the day, as I would be able to know that you were obviously not doing anything "Shadowish," and you obviously know that I was not.

No, I was only able to see that it was in your possession, not that it was even used.

[Alan T]

The problem with the role reveal thing is that it seems very likely the 18 roles = 18 players from what has been said. I am guessing those who were selected as the starter shadow players ended up having their roles that were randomly chosen for them stripped. Whether or not they knew they "used to" be that role I have no idea.

What we could most likely surely get though is the Artificer through elimination, but you also would likely give up roles such as the seers and bodyguards and such.

You comment that people could protect the key roles.. but who would do that?
The ritualist can guard only 3 times in the entire game
The Spiritmaster can only protect the room they are in and only twice.

Thats it for protection roles, there are possibly items, but that would then require some form of protection item to exist AND be in the right hands AND be used on the right person...

So I fail to see how we can for sure have protection for key roles that choose to reveal themselves. It seems more likely to set them up as conversion targets to if nothing else remove a role from use that could harm the shadow.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by BrianD

This is interesting. Assuming the Shadow don't sleep, this makes you as hidden as them at night.

Did I miss that somewhere in the rules? Or are guessing?

[KWhit]

That should say "Are you guessing?"

[Mr. Wednesday]

I slept in the sitting room. I'm not aware of anything interesting happening there.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I observed before, there are two roles that are useful enough to the Shadow to deserve immediate cleansing, and two roles that are useful enough to the cult to deserve protection. The balance go either way.

[Swaggs]

Does anyone have any theories on the type of night actions that the Sun members might have?

[KWhit]

Spying, I assume. Maybe following a person to see his/her actions.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Did I miss that somewhere in the rules? Or are guessing?

I was guessing. If the shadow are out converting people, they are probably not sleeping. I suppose it is possible that they spend some time sleeping to make themselves look normal, but if people are watching they should see that the shadow aren't staying in one room sleeping all night.

My main point was that Joe identifying himself as being hidden alone all night would be a good cover in case it comes out later who was observed in rooms last night and who wasn't.

[BrianD]

I suppose I should add that I'm not saying Joe is bad, just pointing out a possible motive for his comment.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Spying, I assume. Maybe following a person to see his/her actions.

Would you think conversion or some other type of cleansing?

I am asking because I took a good look through all the roles after Mr. Wednesday pointed out that two of them were particularly dangerous for us. I presume these are the Sorceror and the Artificer.

It also appears that there is one role, the Wizard, that cannot be converted to the Shadow, so I am wondering if the Sun Members can provide enough of a threat at night to prevent him from role revealing? If so, he could perhaps create the closest semblance of a COT that we will have this game.

[Swaggs]

Also, I know my role, the role of the person I used the scroll on last night, Joe's role (presumably from his description), and also the role/alignment of ITC (who was cleansed/revealed last night), so I feel like I will have a pretty decent odds to hit either a Sun/Shadow or one of the two Shadow-friendly roles (Sorceror or Artificer) today.

[ntndeacon]

I slept in the ritual room. If we can take anything good from the conversion last night..(and it isn't much) but they do have to start agreeing with each other. So hopefully they don't manage to do that tonight.

[SnDvls]

I think I can reveal my role and not do any harm to the cultist and not bring any help to the shadow either if you think it will help narrow down your list Swaggs

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Also, I know my role, the role of the person I used the scroll on last night, Joe's role (presumably from his description), and also the role/alignment of ITC (who was cleansed/revealed last night), so I feel like I will have a pretty decent odds to hit either a Sun/Shadow or one of the two Shadow-friendly roles (Sorceror or Artificer) today.

you going to be around later...closer to deadline?

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

you going to be around later...closer to deadline?

No... I will be leaving to work just before 2:00 PM EST.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I think I can reveal my role and not do any harm to the cultist and not bring any help to the shadow either if you think it will help narrow down your list Swaggs

Did you learn anything valuable last night?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Did you learn anything valuable last night?

Nothing that absolutly clears or damns another

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

No... I will be leaving to work just before 2:00 PM EST.

shame. i'd like to hear more. as i was stating, i was working on narrowing down my list of choices too, and any type of input of information, or even a veto of my vote based on what you know would be helpful.

for the first time in my ww-ving career i have moved to taking notes on things to help keep things straight.

aaah my evolution as a WWver

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I think I can reveal my role and not do any harm to the cultist and not bring any help to the shadow either if you think it will help narrow down your list Swaggs

i don't think it would necessarily narrow anything down to reveal your role SnDvls...unless you were the Warlock or someone else who performed an action to show that they're not shadow.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

Nothing that absolutly clears or damns another

Unless you are the Wizard or think your role is fairly non-threatening, I would probably hold tight.

[Swaggs]

Well, since I have limited time anyway and DT seems to have something, will you reveal a bit if I do?

[DaddyTorgo]

perhaps another time Sr. Swaggs. when there is hopefully even more data to synthesize

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

It also appears that there is one role, the Wizard, that cannot be converted to the Shadow

The way I read it, that was not inherent to the role itself, only to the amulet in his possession. If someone were to identify him, that amulet could be stolen.

[DaddyTorgo]

lol...and swaggus and i on the same page. +1 for Swaggs

i don't have anything beyond what i stated above really...that i am down to about a 1/5 chance of hitting shadow in my mind, or a 3/14 chance at best now if i were to not aim at swaggs i'd assume.

i would advise sndvls not to reveal unless he were sure it would do no harm, he's smart enough to figure out which roles those would be

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

The way I read it, that was not inherent to the role itself, only to the amulet in his possession. If someone were to identify him, that amulet could be stolen.

Possibly so.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Unless you are the Wizard or think your role is fairly non-threatening, I would probably hold tight.

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i would advise sndvls not to reveal unless he were sure it would do no harm, he's smart enough to figure out which roles those would be

ok I'll hold onto my info for now although I think if I let it out it won't do us harm.

[Swaggs]

I've been bouncing this around and I am going to go ahead and put it out there:

I used the scroll of indentity on hoops last night. He is not a member of the Sun faction and his role is not one of the two that are "Shadow-friendly." Since I can reveal his role if I am cleansed, I'll hold onto that for him, for now.

Do we know or presume that the Warlock was the person that put hoops to sleep last night? If so, he could gain a bit of trust, as we would learn that he was performing a night action, rather than a conversion last night.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

After thinking about it a while, I also have a big problem with Chief's plan of trying to setup a bunch of villagers to cleanse to set up a circle of trust.

At first glance, that sounds like a good plan as its the only surefire way to get trust.. but in more thought, its somewhat similar to being in a normal WW game and saying lets kill all of the Villagers so we know they can trust them, then it will be easy to pick off the wolves.

The shadow players here need a majority of the UNCLEANSED players to win. so if we follow through with CHief's plan and purposely cleanse 4-5 of our fellow cultist volunteers to set up a Circle of trust, he's right we'll have a good 5 people we can trust. We also will watch the shadow in that time likely convert another 3-4 players. Meaning out of 18 original players, there will be 5 cleansed players, 5-6 shadow players and 6-7 cultist left uncleansed. Basically putting us into end game and having to be perfect the rest of the way on who we cleanse.

Between yesterday's attempts at trying to get people to talk about their mundane(non-magical) roles, and today trying to setup a cleansing of volunteering cultists, thats two pretty huge ideas that Chief has thrown out that would be very benefitial to the shadow and very harmful for us. I'm a bit concerned about this.

I wanted to get this thought of mine out there before Chief left for the day, as its only fair to let him have time to respond.

4-5? Good Heavens, Alan, you took my little plan and blew it up big time. If you look back at my post, at no time did I suggest a large number of people be handled in this way. I suggested one. An active player, preferably with analysis skills, and a low priority role.

This would be the start of a decent COT, and someone we could trust if information comes their way, or if they come upon an item of great use to us. But particularly so we know they aren't trying to lead us astray with their analysis.

I also said we should only do it if we have no other real choice. If it's like a Day One vote, where we don't have anough information to definitively go afetr someone, then it might make sense as an alternative move to maximize the value of what would otherwise be almost another random vote. We got somewhat lucky with ITC yesterday. We can't expect that luck to continue.

If we have some solid candidates for Shadow members, that would always be the first choice, and I'm not sure I would advocate doing this more than twice at most. Heck, I don't know we even have enough of thosetypes ofplayers in low priority roles to even get two.

[Lathum]

I've been kicking it around a bit and I have decided to reveal I am the warlock who put hoops to sleep last night.

I hinted yesterday I had a sleeping potion, I was just trying to get peoples opinions without tipping my hand to much.

Ordinaraly I would have revealed later but I have to leavi in a couple of hours and will be gone past the deadline.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I slept in the kitchen and while nothing of interest happened there I can tell you that I know that one of the potentially best roles for the good guys is not in the game.

The chef?

Chef-- He doesn't have any abilities to help the cultists find the Shadow and the Sun, but, boy, cam he whip up a mean chicken gumbo! If he is cleansed, the fat cultists will sob like infants.

[Swaggs]

Chief, did you learn anything last night?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I think I can reveal my role and not do any harm to the cultist and not bring any help to the shadow either if you think it will help narrow down your list Swaggs

Appreciate the offer, SnDvls, but realize that revealing non-critical roles has an unintended side effect--it narrows the pool of players for Shadow to consider as having key roles.

I really would advocate (to all cultists) not being too quick to reveal roles, and I see we already have some today, unfortunately.

Remember, we're not the only ones searching for an Artificer or Sorcerer here.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Chief, did you learn anything last night?

Nope. I slept in and searched the kitchen for magic items. Nothing in there, but big wooden spoons. I wasn't told anyone was with me in the room, so I can't confirm if Barkeep was in there with me. Other than that, I slept like a baby.

[DaddyTorgo]

not to be a negative nancy, but check out the order of night actions

Order of Actions:

Lynch by 7:30/8:00 PM EST
Night actions must be in by midnight EST
Remember each player should send in a sleep location each night!
Dose
Magical Night Actions
Shadow Corruption
Search
Steal
Morning Count

so you could theoretically perform a magical night action and then be converted. so our attempts to build trust for people today based on what they did last night are worthless

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

not to be a negative nancy, but check out the order of night actions

Order of Actions:

Lynch by 7:30/8:00 PM EST
Night actions must be in by midnight EST
Remember each player should send in a sleep location each night!
Dose
Magical Night Actions
Shadow Corruption
Search
Steal
Morning Count

so you could theoretically perform a magical night action and then be converted. so our attempts to build trust for people today based on what they did last night are worthless

I've only said this two times now.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I've only said this two times now.

probably both while i was half-asleep and didn't notice.

so yeah...:o

[DaddyTorgo]

lunchtime. bbiab

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Appreciate the offer, SnDvls, but realize that revealing non-critical roles has an unintended side effect--it narrows the pool of players for Shadow to consider as having key roles.

I really would advocate (to all cultists) not being too quick to reveal roles, and I see we already have some today, unfortunately.

Remember, we're not the only ones searching for an Artificer or Sorcerer here.

no offense but the offer was to Swaggs not you

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

not to be a negative nancy, but check out the order of night actions

Order of Actions:

Lynch by 7:30/8:00 PM EST
Night actions must be in by midnight EST
Remember each player should send in a sleep location each night!
Dose
Magical Night Actions
Shadow Corruption
Search
Steal
Morning Count

so you could theoretically perform a magical night action and then be converted. so our attempts to build trust for people today based on what they did last night are worthless

Agreed and it will be this way the entire game.

My decision is coming down to roles and seeing if I can interpret anything from how people describe night actions. Knowing that people were not out trying to convert us is informative.

I feel pretty good about myself, Lathum, hoops, Joe, and ITC right now, as far as us not being Sun members and/or attempting a conversion last night.

Chief is a little suspicious to me, as he cannot prove what he did last night (through no fault of his own).

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

probably both while i was half-asleep and didn't notice.

so yeah...:o

Its ok, most people selectivly ignore most of my posts


My biggest problem today is trying to figure out a strategy to develop trust in others. This entire game feels like its on quicksand and I every step in any direction ends up causing you to lose ground.

It almost feels like its going to be 7-8 days of luck more than most games. I know so far I've done nothing but shoot down everyone else's ideas without providing any plans of my own which is unlike me.. The problem is I haven't figured out a good plan yet to develop trust.

We can't use the vote count since the shadow players don't know each other.
If we reveal all of our roles we leave our key roles helpless.
If we purposely kill off people to form a CoT we just help the shadow reach their goal faster.

It feels alot like it will require some of our key roles to have a break through on a night scan that helps us pick off people as we go. Even then, when someone reveals such a break through, it won't tell us things from voting patterns as it will likely be a unanimous vote and anyone who gained trust couldnt be trusted the next day anyhows.

[Swaggs]

Alan, do you have anything useful from last night?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Agreed and it will be this way the entire game.

My decision is coming down to roles and seeing if I can interpret anything from how people describe night actions. Knowing that people were not out trying to convert us is informative.

I feel pretty good about myself, Lathum, hoops, Joe, and ITC right now, as far as us not being Sun members and/or attempting a conversion last night.

Chief is a little suspicious to me, as he cannot prove what he did last night (through no fault of his own).

Swaggs if it helps any, my entire night was completely unproductive and I got nothing acomplished at all last night. All I did last night was sleep.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Alan, do you have anything useful from last night?

I read your mind, and answered your question before I read the question

[Swaggs]

Also, recall that we (presumably) have the Signifier, who can tell us if a person is telling the truth or not. We need to get talking a little bit, so that he has a chance to make a good choice today. Recall that his action is during the day, so he can help us immediately, if he finds something out.

If we all say something, to the effect of, what we did last night (without giving too much away), we have potentially have an additional tool to help us.

I will go first: I did not attempt a Shadow Corruption last night.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Alan T

It feels alot like it will require some of our key roles to have a break through on a night scan that helps us pick off people as we go.

Not much different from the average game, there, is it?

The Shadow has an advantage of sorts in not knowing one another, but it's also a disadvantage of sorts in inhibiting their cooperation and teamwork; on top of that, the usual gain in voting power due to thinning of the villager ranks is gone, although they will be slowly gaining power due to conversions.

Even though the Shadow don't know one another to begin with, and are unlikely to reveal under threat of cleansing, there's still potential ability to move in reaction to a vote on a member, if that member chooses to reveal (depending, of course, on the mechanism of communication... since it's a "hive mind", I'm assuming it's not too limited).

[Swaggs]

Anyone else want to give the Signifier something to work with?

I need to vote real soon and then leave for work for the rest of the cycle.