Werewolf XLVI Willy Wonka the game thread!!!! BAD GUYS WIN!!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Okay, so what have we got now?

My thinking is that we ought to look at saldana's defense. Saldana is an experienced enough player that it's not like he was totally coached, but he probably got some help from one of his fellow spies. Does his story sound like the same kind of story one of us would make up?

You really think someone as experienced as saldana is going to rely heavily on others?

[Passacaglia]

Not rely, but cooperate. I think he's experienced enough to discuss it with the rest of the group before making a decision. This may be a wild goose chase anyway, so I'm willing to drop it.

[RendeR]

THe real question isn't "was he helped/coached/cooperating" but....


"Hey pass the snozzberries!"



No wait...factory...dead people...Wonka assassinated...Slugworth tossed.....


So, like...Who voted in concert WITH saldana?

[Passacaglia]

I guess we also need to worry about the sympathizer.

[Barkeep49]

Ok I'm going to vote for a guy who has contributed nothing as far as I can tell, besides the occasional amusement, to this game.

Vote Render

[Passacaglia]

So far, my circle of trust contains LSG and bullet. I'm thinking that when he switched his vote from me to ntn, he really could have put a vote on cronin, which would have set him up to be lynched.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok I'm going to vote for a guy who has contributed nothing as far as I can tell, besides the occasional amusement, to this game.

Vote Render

You think we have so little to go on that we're voting off the quiet ones?

[RendeR]

*shits a golden egg*



DUDE...what'd I do? I'm just here for the chocolate!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

You think we have so little to go on that we're voting off the quiet ones?

I certainly have a group I trust, though it is now smaller since Swaggs bit it. But I don't have any lingering suspicions on people. I am, however, more than willing to listen to others.

[RendeR]

Ok, how about this then:

Day 1, no clues to anyone, no access to information as a simple ticket holder, voted DT because he hadn't been voted for yet.

Day 2, still no real clue as to anyoneds ID, so I stuck with my day 1 vote and voted DT.

Day 3, Obvious knowledge of Saldana after Cronin outs himself, voted with everyone else to out the known Wolf.

What more am I supposed to contribute outside of Humor when you and Pass and Alan and..well almost everyone else toss theories around like a cat with a bad hairball, its much simpler to sit back and let you all shredd the convoluted logic than it is to actually jump into the mire and get lost in it along with you.

hence my post above asking "Who voted WITH saldana" to get us moving on the next wolf/wolves.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I do regret leaving it so close because I would preferred to force a tie. Frankly I think the reasoning against NTN and Swaggs is little and think that saldana and cronin showed us far more. If I was willing to risk a tie my vote would have been with cronin who I trust less than saldana.

Hay Barkeep, since you're here, and I'm reading old posts -- can you explain this one? You said you you have preferred to force a tie, than you talk about what it would be like if you were willing to risk a tie. I'm not sure I understand the reasoning.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'll see if I can put anything together from the first three votes this afternoon, unless someone else beats me to it. (Probably nothing useful from yesterday directly, for obvious reasons...)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Ok, how about this then:

Day 1, no clues to anyone, no access to information as a simple ticket holder, voted DT because he hadn't been voted for yet.

Day 2, still no real clue as to anyoneds ID, so I stuck with my day 1 vote and voted DT.

Day 3, Obvious knowledge of Saldana after Cronin outs himself, voted with everyone else to out the known Wolf.

What more am I supposed to contribute outside of Humor when you and Pass and Alan and..well almost everyone else toss theories around like a cat with a bad hairball, its much simpler to sit back and let you all shredd the convoluted logic than it is to actually jump into the mire and get lost in it along with you.

hence my post above asking "Who voted WITH saldana" to get us moving on the next wolf/wolves.

Looking back, Alan voted with saldana.

[Passacaglia]

Although I think all Barkeep is asking for is maybe an indication of your thoughts. Something like "this guy seems more right to me" or "his theory makes more sense" -- just to get an idea for what you're thinking. It's not going to condemn you or anything, you're going to be wrong several times a game -- hell, I was wrong in voting for LSG on Day 2, and bullet was wrong voting for ntn then, but he's still in my circle of trust.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Hay Barkeep, since you're here, and I'm reading old posts -- can you explain this one? You said you you have preferred to force a tie, than you talk about what it would be like if you were willing to risk a tie. I'm not sure I understand the reasoning.

No problem. I'd have preferred to vote for cronin on Day 2. However, with the uncertain tie breaking mechanism I decided it was not worth the risk and went with my second choice, saldana. Not sure if this makes me look good or bad, but that was the thought process.

[Passacaglia]

Maybe I'm misreading the first sentence of that post I quoted -- doesn't it say you would have preferred a tie?

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Although I think all Barkeep is asking for is maybe an indication of your thoughts. Something like "this guy seems more right to me" or "his theory makes more sense" -- just to get an idea for what you're thinking. It's not going to condemn you or anything, you're going to be wrong several times a game -- hell, I was wrong in voting for LSG on Day 2, and bullet was wrong voting for ntn then, but he's still in my circle of trust.

Oh I understand his question, I think I'm just being testy today. Had a tennis amtch last night and hurt my hip, I'm old and in pain =)

makes me a grumpy candy-fiend.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RendeR

What more am I supposed to contribute outside of Humor when you and Pass and Alan and..well almost everyone else toss theories around like a cat with a bad hairball, its much simpler to sit back and let you all shredd the convoluted logic than it is to actually jump into the mire and get lost in it along with you.

hence my post above asking "Who voted WITH saldana" to get us moving on the next wolf/wolves.

What theories have I been throwing out? I got attacked by Saldana day 1, and simply defended myself.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Looking back, Alan voted with saldana.

Wern't you accusing me of being in league with Cronin against Saldana earlier, even though it was Saldana who had voted for me and I hadn't once accused him? You can't get your story straight about me at all. If you go back to look, I didn't vote with Saldana at all. I voted for him on day 1, and on day 2 he was voting for me when I voted for Cronin, and then later switched his vote to vote -with- me.

I guess you had advanced knowledge that Saldana was bad and Cronin was good though. I'm sorry but my PM didn't include that information for me to go on.

If we have 2 wolves left, my guess are that Passacaglia and Barkeep are the two wolves. If its only 1 wolf left, I'm leaning towards it being Barkeep right now.

[DaddyTorgo]

Well...I'm around. As far as what I am thinking moving forward...I agree that it makes sense to at least do the standard "vote analysis" on him and see if we can gain anything from that, although TBH I think with the knowledge of that and how we go about it so out there it becomes less effective. Not ineffective, but less effective.

Cronin+Swaggs+LSG were/are the the three people that I had trust for in this game so far, and 2/3 of them are dead. So I can say that I won't be voting for LSG.

Other than that, there hasn't been anything incredible that has...pinged my radar. Little things, but I doubt any of them lead up to anything...stuff like Alan being quieter than normal (which i attribute to the baby), RendeR being a goof, a long layoff probably making my reads on everyone a little wonky.

[DaddyTorgo]

and just as I post that, Alan comes out with some analysis. LOL.

Analysis which I guess I can see the reasoning for with Pass. Not quite as sure I see it with Barkeep, but I've been a bit out-of-sorts, so let me go back and reread at some point.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

What theories have I been throwing out? I got attacked by Saldana day 1, and simply defended myself.



Wern't you accusing me of being in league with Cronin against Saldana earlier, even though it was Saldana who had voted for me and I hadn't once accused him? You can't get your story straight about me at all. If you go back to look, I didn't vote with Saldana at all. I voted for him on day 1, and on day 2 he was voting for me when I voted for Cronin, and then later switched his vote to vote -with- me.

I guess you had advanced knowledge that Saldana was bad and Cronin was good though. I'm sorry but my PM didn't include that information for me to go on.

If we have 2 wolves left, my guess are that Passacaglia and Barkeep are the two wolves. If its only 1 wolf left, I'm leaning towards it being Barkeep right now.

Dude, all I did was answer Render's question -- just trying to get him to open up. If I really felt suspicious of you, I would have said more than that.

[Passacaglia]

Why did so many people trust Swaggs so much? I've seen both Barkeep and DT say that, but I'm not sure where you guys are getting it from?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Why did so many people trust Swaggs so much? I've seen both Barkeep and DT say that, but I'm not sure where you guys are getting it from?

Based on how the voting went down, with his being on the block but voting against someone with no votes rather than voting for someone who would have tied him for the vote lead.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Based on how the voting went down, with his being on the block but voting against someone with no votes rather than voting for someone who would have tied him for the vote lead.

".

[Passacaglia]

Hmm. I'm not sure I would have come to that conclusion -- obviously, since I didn't. I guess that's moot, though, since Swaggs was trustworthy and isn't around anymore anyway.

[Alan T]

Day 1:

lonestargirl (1)- chief rum
chief rum (4)- barkeep, bulletsponge, st cronin, lonestargirl
saldana (3)- daddytorgo, ardent, AlanT
passacaglia (1)- ntndeacon
daddytorgo (2)- hoopsguy, render
hoopsguy (1)- saldana
st cronin (1)- passacaglia
alant (1)- swaggs

not voted Mr. Wednesday

Night kill: Ardent

Day 2:

saldana (2)- cronin, barkeep
cronin (2)- alant, saldana
hoops (1)- lsg
daddytorgo (1) - render
swaggs (2)- mr. w, ntn
lsg (2) - pass, hoops
ntn (3) - swaggs, torgo, bullet


Night kill: Hoopsguy


Day 3:

Irrelevant

Night kill: Swaggs

[Alan T]

Render Has voted for daddytorgo two of the three days, and I don't even remember his reason for it. DT also seems unphased and hasn't retaliated in voting or as far as I remember even conversation. Maybe I just don't remember that fully.

Good or bad, Bullet has voted for the person who has died every day so far.

DaddyTorgo's moves haven't made much sense at times to me, but seem irrational enough to not be a bad guy from what I am guessing (based on gut feelings alone)

Mr.W missed the first vote, and I don't really remember alot of his stance so far this game. Hard for me to get a read on him one way or another.

The big one for me is:

Barkeep could have put Saldana on the block with me on Day 1 but chose not to. In fact he event stated the race was between Chief and DT, leaving Saldana out of it entirely. Barkeep switching his vote over to Saldana there after I had voted would have lynched Saldana, but he only seemed interested in switching if it was for DT. However the next day he comes out stating he distrusted Saldana and Cronin and ended up voting for Saldana even though he could have killed him the first day if he had voted with me.

Vote Barkeep

[Passacaglia]

Thanks for that, Alan. I think that moves DT up in my estimation.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Render Has voted for daddytorgo two of the three days, and I don't even remember his reason for it. DT also seems unphased and hasn't retaliated in voting or as far as I remember even conversation. Maybe I just don't remember that fully.

Good or bad, Bullet has voted for the person who has died every day so far.

DaddyTorgo's moves haven't made much sense at times to me, but seem irrational enough to not be a bad guy from what I am guessing (based on gut feelings alone)

Mr.W missed the first vote, and I don't really remember alot of his stance so far this game. Hard for me to get a read on him one way or another.

The big one for me is:

Barkeep could have put Saldana on the block with me on Day 1 but chose not to. In fact he event stated the race was between Chief and DT, leaving Saldana out of it entirely. Barkeep switching his vote over to Saldana there after I had voted would have lynched Saldana, but he only seemed interested in switching if it was for DT. However the next day he comes out stating he distrusted Saldana and Cronin and ended up voting for Saldana even though he could have killed him the first day if he had voted with me.

Vote Barkeep

Alan,

My only "move" was the moving of my vote off Swaggs based on his vote making me strongly believe he was innocent. Day 1 I voted for Saldana (although I claim no knowledge or anything) based on my joking statement that ignited a furor.

As for why I havn't responded to RendeR continuing to vote for me...I figure he's a harmlessly misguided golden ticket holder and I'm not going to blast him for that. I can address it if needs be whenever, I just don't feel endangered by it ATM. I'm not sure that I've been especially irrational. Maybe not quite as "wild-theory-slinging" as I have been in the past. Guess those weeks off kinda dampened that for a bit.

Good point about Barkeep. Nice deep analysis. Each individual piece doesn't seem to add up to anything, but taken together it sure does appear that they paint a picture linking Barkeep & Saldana.


VOTE BARKEEP

[Passacaglia]

I'm with you Alan, that I can't explain DT's moves either, but I look at his vote for NTN, and think that if he were allied with saldana, he would have offed cronin.

[DaddyTorgo]

I think I'm still trying to get a handle on things after the layoff, ya know? Kludge my mind back into WW-mode.

[Passacaglia]

I'm not ready to put in a vote on Barkeep, but I do want to note that his vote for saldana right at the deadline seems like one that was made knowing it wouldn't really have an effect on the outcome.

[LoneStarGirl]

Right now I am leaning towards Alant over Barkeep. I dont remember at exactly what time Alant voted for Saldana, but I think it was after I put the nail in Cheif's coffin. Then on day two he votes for Cronin....

I am going to vote now because Comcast turned our cable off last night so I wasn't able to get on after 9 last night but I will get on later and change it if need be.

vote alant

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Right now I am leaning towards Alant over Barkeep. I dont remember at exactly what time Alant voted for Saldana, but I think it was after I put the nail in Cheif's coffin. Then on day two he votes for Cronin....

For the record, the same argument could be made against barkeep. His vote for saldana was way way closer to the deadline than Alan's, and ntn had a two-vote lead.

[DaddyTorgo]

what moves have i made that people aren't understanding? feel free to be specific and i will explain my reasoning

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

what moves have i made that people aren't understanding? feel free to be specific and i will explain my reasoning

I didn't mean to say I can't understand them -- just that I can't explain them as well as you. You're pretty high on my trust list now.

[Barkeep49]

Alan my opinions changed on saldana and cronin based on the early morning stuff. I simply did not get a chance to see the late developments and as such was not around at deadline to possibly influence the vote. Frankly I think you sound rather bitter that I didn't follow your lead more than anything.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I didn't mean to say I can't understand them -- just that I can't explain them as well as you. You're pretty high on my trust list now.

okay. thanks. i was starting to get a lil agitated. I don't feel that I've been super-unpredictable in my normal-style this game, so I was wondering what I had done that had people confused. All of my moves have been (I thought) sound, even a little prescient with the vote for saldana on D1.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Right now I am leaning towards Alant over Barkeep. I dont remember at exactly what time Alant voted for Saldana, but I think it was after I put the nail in Cheif's coffin. Then on day two he votes for Cronin....

I am going to vote now because Comcast turned our cable off last night so I wasn't able to get on after 9 last night but I will get on later and change it if need be.

vote alant

LSG, thats not entirely accurate. Go back and check the thread and look at the conversations more than just the votes. I stated right after you voted my thoughts about it being a Chief run away. I stated I was going to vote one of the two (Saldana or DT) to try to keep things close with over an hour remaining and 4-6 people around at the time and until the deadline.

Barkeep was the only one who responded to it, and completely left Saldana out of the mix, giving the impression he'd move his vote to DT if I voted for DT also, but didn't mention Saldana at all there. I even call Barkeep out for that and because I found that fishy, went with Saldana for my vote with 25 minutes left, plenty of time for any of the people around to move their vote. No one did at all.

[Barkeep49]

Alan you insist you called me out, except I never saw the post where you called me out on it since I wasn't around for deadline. Why was the fact that I viewed DT and CR as more ominous on day 1 such a hangup for you? I mean it's really like you're offended that we didn't all, or at least me, just follow you lockstep.

[Alan T]

I am not offended at all. I am just stating why I feel you are the most suspicious to me right now

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Alan you insist you called me out, except I never saw the post where you called me out on it since I wasn't around for deadline. Why was the fact that I viewed DT and CR as more ominous on day 1 such a hangup for you? I mean it's really like you're offended that we didn't all, or at least me, just follow you lockstep.

Can you explain why you did view DT and CR as more ominous? It's not a hangup, but it seems surprising to have a view like that so early.

[RendeR]

Seeing that I only add amusement to the game and am a pretty ovbious Ticket Holder by virtue of, well, absolutely no information coming to or from me in any way, I think barkeep is looking for an easy kill by targeting me so quickly today.

To that end:

VOTE BARKEEP

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Can you explain why you did view DT and CR as more ominous? It's not a hangup, but it seems surprising to have a view like that so early.

The easiest answer to this would be that he is another wolf and went after people he may somehow have known were not.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Seeing that I only add amusement to the game and am a pretty ovbious Ticket Holder by virtue of, well, absolutely no information coming to or from me in any way, I think barkeep is looking for an easy kill by targeting me so quickly today.

To that end:

VOTE BARKEEP

Why shouldn't you add information? I mean your posts are amusing but that hardly seems like an adequate reason to keep someone around.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

The easiest answer to this would be that he is another wolf and went after people he may somehow have known were not.

Why is that the easiest answer?

[RendeR]

Oh and to clarify for anyone that hasn't caught on yet:

I voted DT the first two days because A) I knew nothing about anyone and B) I got his name to work in my rhymes.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Can you explain why you did view DT and CR as more ominous? It's not a hangup, but it seems surprising to have a view like that so early.

I found CR's targeting of LSG to be suspicious.

DT's somewhat wacky posts seemed out of character.

I'm not saying I had strong feelings, not like in the saldana and cronin case, which is why I completely dropped DT as a suspect after D1. But I did admit to having feelings.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Why is that the easiest answer?

Nature of the beast. if you are truly a wolf, you go hunting. SImple really.


And to answer your other question its not that I "shouldn't" be adding information its that I had no information TO add, I can't pull valuabl;e data out of my ass, if I could do that I'd be the vice-president.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Nature of the beast. if you are truly a wolf, you go hunting. SImple really.


And to answer your other question its not that I "shouldn't" be adding information its that I had no information TO add, I can't pull valuabl;e data out of my ass, if I could do that I'd be the vice-president.

So why is that an easier explanation than what a villager would do? I just fail to see how my D1 play is more wolfish than villager. Perhaps my inability to reason it out is because I know I'm a villager and conducted it as a villager play.

And not to belabor the point too much but I think you can pull information out of no where. It's called analysis. That is supposedly why you like voting for me, based on the one Alan T did. It was faulty but it was information out there.