Werewolf XLIII - The Big City (Game over)

[DaddyTorgo]

My thoughts.

IIRC I can't directly quote the PM so I'll just say this: Blade stopped me on the street as I was out for a walk. He had noticed something about a particular item of mine. He checked it out, did me no harm, and went on his way as I went on mine.

That being said...I wouldn't feel comfortable clearing him 100% as good at this point, because he could be looking for a mechanism to build a CoT, or looking for possible converts to his side. But I can say that he definitely did me no harm and I left in possession of everything that I had when I first met him. This makes me inclined to think that he's good/neutral and I would assume that he feels the same about me from what he posted.

If people want to elect ME judge...that's fine. I'm flattered to be considered and I would serve to the best of my abilities if offered the job.

[Lathum]

So the fact that there are bullets for sale leads me to believe some residents may have guns. Anyone care to fes up?

[hoopsguy]

I don't have a gun, although I would be happy to acquire one to protect myself and to help with punishing the wicked. But for now I'm content to try and work through the emerging legal channels we have in our city.

[DaddyTorgo]

Alan: can messages posted on the underground messageboard be relayed to the rest of us here in the thread, or is that against the rules?

[DaddyTorgo]

no gun here

was thinking about buying a knife though honestly, which I will say here out loud, so that no one finds me suspicious if I do

[Lathum]

oh, and I do not have a gun.

[Lathum]

dola- I already put in an order for a knife

[Barkeep49]

I have no weapons and perhaps like a fool I'm going to go down rich as I just can't see purchasing a knife or gun. So if you're a bad guy come and get me.

[Tyrith]

I wish I had a weapon right now. Maybe some sort of rocket launcher?

[SnDvls]

with the money aspect in this game it seems everyone must start with a pretty good amount with what is out there.

$100 to join the message board
$25 to post
$ to gamble
$125 for a knive
$150 for ammo
$ for who knows what else.

so I would assume everyone starts with a couple hundred dollars. without giving away what I or you have would you all think that is a safe assumption?

[Barkeep49]

I'd presume it would be more like 400 and up.

[hoopsguy]

OK, by this point we have had an opportunity to hear from just about everyone in the game. At some point I think we have to turn our attention towards some good old-fashioned vigilanted justice.

So, who are your candidates and why?

Mine:
- Barkeep49: interested in Judge, then pulls away from notion pretty quickly. Chastises other players for missing info related to Blade6119. Advertises that he has money and no defenses. Really struggling to put together an overall positive picture for this man.
- LoneStarGirl: says that she can prove she is good, but has not said anything since that time. I'm suspect of someone being able to prove this type of info early in the game without being a seer-type, and don't believe they would put themselves out there in this manner. This one could change if I'm given a reason to do so.

[Abe Sargent]

Yay, caught up. Interesting things going on.

[Abe Sargent]

Now time for lunch.

[Abe Sargent]

Awesome, I just scored the Pi post!

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

And I want to be judge since I think my role's pretty vanilla and I'd love to spice it up some.

I strongly suspect that if you are starting with 400+ in cash that you are not nearly as vanilla as you suggested yesterday. I could be showing my ignorance here, but I kind of doubt it based on:
1. Believe newspaper reported heavy (>50) sign-ups for message board
2. Lack of people posting with interest on betting or getting weapons

I'm guessing the average income is lower than 400, which makes me wonder even more why you would put a target on yourself this morning with comments about wealth. If you believe that people like Chief Rum have an interest in accumulating money, and know that the Mafia would like to have disposable income, then why tell them to go through you to get it? I think it will be pretty telling if you are still around next week ...

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Alan: can messages posted on the underground messageboard be relayed to the rest of us here in the thread, or is that against the rules?

PMs should never be relayed to the thread. Even paraphrasing is against the spirit of the game.

You can however come and report that you found out from reading the message board if you so choose. It just has to be in your own words.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

PMs should never be relayed to the thread. Even paraphrasing is against the spirit of the game.

You can however come and report that you found out from reading the message board if you so choose. It just has to be in your own words.

okay. That answered my question. And FYI I was more talking about #2. So I could say "hey there was a post on the underground messageboard by someone saying that something evil is going to go down tonight, everyone be careful" or something. As long as you say it in your own words, it's not like "stuff on the messageboard cannot be relayed in-game to anyone" or anything. gotcha

[Alan T]

Just a reminder, while the electing a judge is optional, the lynch vote is not. Anyone who chooses to not participate in today's lynch might feel more of the lynch mob's wrath tommorrow.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

It's not a no brainier for me. I'm poor.

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I have no weapons and perhaps like a fool I'm going to go down rich as I just can't see purchasing a knife or gun. So if you're a bad guy come and get me.

I'm having a very hard time reading Barkeep right now.

[Swaggs]

From the clues given today, I think Chief would make a terrible judge. Alan indicated that, once the money changes hands, he (Alan) is out of the picture. That means that if/when Chief dies, folks that have placed bets are SOL whether they win or lose their bets. I also suspect that Chief has a goal to reach a certain amount of money to achieve his victory, so he would be highly susceptible to bribery.

[Tyrith]

I am going to stick to my word. I am certainly open to changing, although I think Day 1 would stick be mostly a crapshoot, so this is nothing final by any stretch. However, I've said I would be doing it for a long, so it is time....

TO VOTE NTNDEACON!

[Lathum]

I agree that barkeeps play is strange but I am willing to give him the benifit for today.

VOTE BLADE

He has come out and said he is basicly useless so why not take a low risk option

[Tyrith]

My thing is that BK is always doing strange things. It's just kind of his way, and this didn't seem particularly strange to me, so I'll willing to cut him some slack.

[st.cronin]

vote Barkeep

I agree, his moves today were a little bit odd - not the oddest, but somewhat out of character. He's also the one guy in the game that I almost never suspect of being bad, especially when he's bad.

[DaddyTorgo]

dammit. I hate day 1. I never have any good idea of anything.

Well cept I know i'm not voting for blade ATM

[ntndeacon]

Tyrith made my day 1 vote easy.
Vote Tyrith

[Abe Sargent]

There's all sorts of stuff going on underground. It's definately the place to be, I'd say

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

CR:
Assuming Alan picks games that are toss-ups, which is likely, the odds of placing a bet on any given day is only 50%. The odds of winning that bet is only 50%. That means on any given day you only have a 25% shot of winning money. Now granted you have a 50% shot of not losing money, but your idea of five consecutive wins is only a 3% possibility, before even taking into account that your bet might not be placed.

I'm guessing your victory condition has to do with your ability to make money. This would make you one bribable judge. I don't wish you any ill in your venture, but will not be voting for you as a judge.

But you also only lose money 25% of the time, and that is if we make the assumptions that you're making, which won't necessarily be true. There are a lot of sports nuts in the Big City. I am guessing between us all, we can make bets that will likely increase our win odds significantly.

No, five straight wins is not likely, but five straight losses is even less likely, and your losses don't increase over time. The fact is that this is another way for people to make money if they want, especially if they like the bet. You don't have to do it if you don't want to; I'm here to tell others that the opportunity is there if they do.

As for my win condition, there's a money element, but it is more complicated than that. I have already determined I can hit it on my own, and am not concerned with the need to take bribes to hit it (which by themselves wouldn't do it anyway). But once again, that is your right. Vote as you like. Don't come crying to me, though, if the judge doesn't make choices you like.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

CR - so you don't get to pick the game Alan does correct?

That is correct, SnDvls. I find out the new game every day.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

That is correct, SnDvls. I find out the new game every day.

is your commission negotiable?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by ImTheCrew

CR


so we PM the amount of money bet to Alan then post who we bet on here?


andim lost on the part about "please also state if you would like the money returned to you, or if you would be comfortable going with the public bet"

Yes, Crew, you have it correct. You PM the money transfer to Alan (to Alan it is just a transfer of money from you to me). It might be important you call it a transfer--Alan has no active role in the business, but is only serving as a passive conduit for moving bet money.

I stated that last in case the bet goes the wrong way. Let's say you bet on OK State tonight, but K State bettors offer up more money and make the bet for K State. I am saying that, if you want, you can say if you want your money to go with the public bet (K State), even though they didn't go with your pick (OK State). This would mostly be if you felt it was a toss up and just needed a bet out there to make money. I expect most people will just want their money returned if their bet isn't picked (and that's the default; you say nothing or something ambiguous, I will just return the money to you).

Hope that makes sense.

[DaddyTorgo]

wow CR...congratulations on figuring out this interesting way of bringing more money into the game. That's pretty...innovative

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

is your commission negotiable?

I am leaving it as is for today, but of course, this is a business. I may change it tomorrow based on how people bet today. For instance, right now, therew are no bets in, so I may drop the commission tomorrow. But I haven't decided.

It shouldn't matter too much, though, since regardless if if my commission is 10%, 20% or 30%, we all still make money if we pick winners.

[st.cronin]

The Chief Rum thing is amusing. Rummy, sorry if you already did this and I missed it, but who do you like in the game?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Lathum

without looking it up I think they are 0-7

I know it's not great. But it doesn't matter--they are at home in this one. In fact, IMO, the home court advantage is the only real thing going the Cowboys way in this one.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I know it's not great. But it doesn't matter--they are at home in this one. In fact, IMO, the home court advantage is the only real thing going the Cowboys way in this one.

I'm all over Kstate ( and in real life also)

[st.cronin]

What is the minimum bet?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

From the clues given today, I think Chief would make a terrible judge. Alan indicated that, once the money changes hands, he (Alan) is out of the picture. That means that if/when Chief dies, folks that have placed bets are SOL whether they win or lose their bets. I also suspect that Chief has a goal to reach a certain amount of money to achieve his victory, so he would be highly susceptible to bribery.

Not going to argue most of this, as I have responded to a lot of it elsewhere. And I certainly undertsand the reticence to make a bookie a judge.

That said, I have the means to protect myself, and no one has a reason to kill me. In fact, there is good reason to keep me alive: everyone, good and bad, can make money off of me. And I have already announced I am not on either side, and frankly, it doesn't matter to me who wins or loses or lives or dies.

So while certainly if something does happen to me while I have the money, there isn't much we can do about that. But I am not a risk free kill for anyone who wants to try to do so, and there is little advantage for anyone to try to kill me. On the scale of Big City politics and the struggle of good and evil, my role is an unimportant nonentity.

Also, I won't be keeping the money long (only to the moment I return to the computer). I won't announce money amounts publically. No one will know how much money I have, but I assure you, I am a small time gambler. All the high rollers left for Vegas, I think.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

wow CR...congratulations on figuring out this interesting way of bringing more money into the game. That's pretty...innovative

Thanks!

Hopefully we'll see some business. I would welcome your patronage if you're interested.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

The Chief Rum thing is amusing. Rummy, sorry if you already did this and I missed it, but who do you like in the game?

I am leaning toward K State myself. But my bet won't figure into the choice. If the bettors want to go with OK State, I will bet on OK State.

I really do agree with Lathum's analysis, though, that this is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions. OK State will be desperate, because they need the wins, but their conference record probably means they are outside looking in foir an at large NCAA bid anyway. K State really needs that one more win to put them in a comfortable position. OK State has lost four in a row, including two at home. This is very winnable for K State.

But there are bigger Big 12 buffs here, I am sure. I would welcome their input as well. Information for all of us on this game will help us all when placing our bets.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

What is the minimum bet?

I will put it at $10. That way, I don't need to do any funny math for the commission.

BTW, it is my policy to round to the bettor on commission to even dollars. In other words, if you bet $19 and win, my commission would normally be $3.80. I will drop the $0.80, instead of rounding out to four, taking only three instead Advantage to the bettor in any such transaction. It's a small deal, but I thought it important to note.

[st.cronin]

Well, I have placed a small bet, on Oklahoma State.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Well, I have placed a small bet, on Oklahoma State.

Awesome. And if Lathum's post was an indication of a bet as well, then we're on our way.

I can't officially take a bet until I hear if I have received any money from Alan, so currently there is no official bet. But I hope Alan should be around before the deadline.

BETTING DEADLINE IN ONE HOUR (1 P.M. PDT/4 P.M. EST)

[Lathum]

CR I just sent you some money. Put it all on K State

[hoopsguy]

Vote count that I've seen so far:
NTN - Tyrith (322)
Blade - Lathum (323)
Barkeep - Cronin (325)
Tyrith - NTN (327)

I'm still waiting to hear from LoneStarGirl before making my decision between her or Barkeep for today - always interesting when you try to rattle someone's cage a little bit and they don't respond at all. Normally I don't draw the most positive conclusions from silence ...

[SnDvls]

I thought I saw another vote very early on...I'll double check

[SnDvls]

found it
post #97 Blade voted St. C

[SnDvls]

also

post #105
LSG votes Blade

[Blade6119]

LSG voted me as well, so im currently leading the vote i didnt want