Predict the #1 Movie this (and every) Weekend

[Pyser]

waaaay high. "only" made 46m

[Pyser]

unstoppable, morning glory and skyline vs megamind trying to hold

i think unstoppable would lead that pack of new movies at about 23m, but a 40% drop for megamind is still about $28m, so megamind is my pick

[Pyser]

spot on last week

harry potter this week (yay). obviously huge. 120m? surprised it didnt get a wed release, but i guess the thinking is theyll own thanksgiving week, too, since families will be together and bored.

also, the last few came out in summer, i believe...and the last one comes out in july. no real impact, just interesting to me. i believe it started as a winter series though, way back when.

[Pyser]

2 in a row. hp7.1 made $125m

[Pyser]

forgot to update.

a lot opened wednesday, which i missed, so ill do a 3 day prediction.

hp should hold, but tangled will take some kids away, being the main competition.

ill still go hp7.1 at 55m.

[Pyser]

potter took it at 49m, tangled made 48m

this weekend nothing really opens, so ill go tangled, since its been out a week less than potter. 40% drop gives it about $28m this weekend, which seems too high to me, so ill go 24m.

[Pyser]

even 24 was high. tangled won it at 21.6m

this week is narnia 3. so thats an easy prediction. money not so much. i dont know anyone who wants to see this, but then, im not 10. but still, this is one kids franchise i dont think is that big, though the movies certainly look super expensive.

25m?

[Pyser]

narnia won it at 24m

this weekend is how do you know, tron, yogi bear, and the fighter

if there was any justice in this world, the fighter would win it (its excellent). but there isnt justice, and i think its between tron and yogi bear. and since tron has all the 3d stuff, ill give it to tron, though i dont know anyone who wants to see it. 30m is what im guessing, though i wouldnt be shocked to see 50m for no reason whatsoever

[Pyser]

tron indeed. $44m.

this weekend is oscar contender vs utter crap. true grit vs little fockers

fockers all the way. 35m.

[Pyser]

fockers took it at 30.8m

nothing opens this weekend, which means it is fockers vs true grit again. true grit made 25m last weekend - very solid

the question now is how does new years affect the box office? i actually think its a good time to catch a movie, overall. all the award movies are out, people are off work, the weather has been bad just about nationwide...

i dont think fockers has the kind of audience that waits until week 2 to see it. however, families may not have many other options. true grit, on the other hand, has the exact kind of audience that would wait to see it. like i said, a good time to catch up on the movies you know will be nominated

ill go true grit at 22m, edging out, say, 20m for fockers?

[Pyser]

so close. little fockers won, 25m to 24m

this weekend, season of the witch and country strong open

i think im going true grit again, at 15m

[Pyser]

hey, look at that. true grit took it at 14.6m

this weekend, its the dilemma vs green hornet

ive been burned by rogan before (pineapple express), and burned by james (paul blart)

america loves shit comedies. dilemma at 30m

[Pyser]

totally wrong last week. green hornet won it 33.5m to 17.8m. ouch!

this week is no strings attached vs last weeks field. ill go with the new movie, 19m.

[Pyser]

and so it was. no strings attached made 19.6m

this week is the mechanic vs the rite

been a while since a horror movie was releases. so ill go with the rite, 20m.

[Pyser]

right movie, wrong total. only made 14.8m

this weekend sees the roommate and sanctum open.

sanctum has the bonus of 3d prices, so ill take that. 16m.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Pyser

right movie, wrong total. only made 14.8m

this weekend sees the roommate and sanctum open.

sanctum has the bonus of 3d prices, so ill take that. 16m.

It's really hard to predict the numbers at this time of year. And this week in particular seems to like much excitement whatsoever. You may be right about the 3D prices--I think the overall totals will be low enough to make that a factor.

[Pyser]

oof, my first miss in a while. big miss.

the roommate took it at 15m. sanctum only made 9.4m

this weekend is just go with it vs cedar rapids vs gnomeo and juliet vs justin bieber vs the eagle

never go against sandler in this country. just look at the zohan. 34m for the valentines weekend crowd

though, bieber will be very close, i think (and has 3d prices, though i wont fall for that again!)

[Pyser]

just go with it held off bieber by a mil, 30.5m to 29.5m

this week is big mommas house vs i am #4 vs unknown

taken did well last year, or 2 years ago, and unknown is playing heavily off that. but #4 seems like a mindless popcorn flick more for kids, and kids go to the movies more than adults (i assume)

#4, 28m.

[Pyser]

shouldve remembered the legs taken had.

unknown took it at 21.8. #4 made 19.4m

this week is drive angry vs hall pass

think im going with the comedy, 21m

[Pyser]

hall pass took it with a dismal 13.5m. for a while, it was reported gnomeo and juliet won it, despite being out 3 weeks and never being #1 before. wouldve been cool.

this week is the adjustment bureau vs rango

i stick with always going with kids. 27m.

[Pyser]

rango did well, 38m.

this weekend: battle la vs mars needs moms vs red riding hood vs rango

mars needs moms should cancel out rango. so ill take battle at 25m.

[larrymcg421]

I think the Dark Knight's opening weekend record of $158 million may fall this weekend. Deathly Hallows 2 just pulled in $43 million on midnight screenings alone, smashing the previous midnight record (Twilight: Eclipse) by $13 million.

[larrymcg421]

Yep, Dark Knight is toast. Deathly Hallows Part 2 pulled in $92 million on Friday alone, beating the old single day record by $20 million. It just needs $66.4 million on the next two days combined to top Dark Knight's opening weekend.

[Pyser]

$207m for avengers this weekend made me think about this thread. thats a lot of money, to put it mildly.

[larrymcg421]

I'm thinking it will destroy the 2nd weekend record and be the first film to get over $100million. If you compare it to other comic book movies that opened in early May, Spider-man and Spider-man 3.

Here are their Sunday - Thursday drops:

Spider-man 3: 85.2%
The Avengers: 78.2%
Spider-man: 76.4%

So I would expect it to perform closer to Spider-man's 37.8% drop than Spider-man 3's 61.5% drop. I'm thinking something like 45% for a $114m 2nd weekend is possible. Even if it performs dead int he middle of those two films, we're looking at a 49.7% drop for a $104.1. I would be very surprised if it doesn't reach $100 million.

[Pyser]

spot on. well done.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Pyser

spot on. well done.

Thanks!

It's really amazing how well this film is doing. It owns all the Fastest To records up to $350 million so far. It will cross $400 million on Thursday, 4 days faster than Dark Knight. It will cross $450 million on Sunday, 10 days faster than Dark Knight! Right now I'd say it will surely pass Dark Knight for 3rd all-time and has an outside shot to catch 2nd place Titanic.

I'm gonna stick with the idea that it performs in between SM3 and SM1. Their 3rd weekends were 50.1% and 36.9% drops respectively. That makes for a 43.5% drop and a $58.2 million 3rd weekend.

So the weekend I'd put like this:

Avengers $58.2m
Battleship $35m
The Dictator $20m
What to Expect $17m
Dark Shadows $15m

[Pyser]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Avengers $58.2m
Battleship $35m
The Dictator $20m
What to Expect $17m
Dark Shadows $15m

you're (mostly) hired.

avengers: 55.6
battleship: 25.5
dictator: 17.4
dark shadows: 12.5
what to expect: 10.5

avengers is just insane.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Pyser

you're (mostly) hired.

avengers: 55.6
battleship: 25.5
dictator: 17.4
dark shadows: 12.5
what to expect: 10.5

avengers is just insane.

Thanks. I was way off on Battleship and What to Expect, but solid on the others.

This weekend is MIB3. Will hasn't had a big movie in a while and he's always a reliable opener, even when the movies arent that good:

So I say for the 4 day weekend:

MIB3: $80m
Avengers: $47m

[larrymcg421]

Way too high on MIB 3 which was $69 million, but I hit Avengers exactly.