Werewolf CXVIIIb XTreme - WOLVES WIN - Page 7

JAG · 06-15-2011, 10:03 PM

Well, we almost assuredly blew it with the bhlloy lynch unless he and Narcizo are the wolves.

Danny · 06-15-2011, 10:21 PM

Well at least we can use info from VHS lynch now, oh wait

Autumn · 06-15-2011, 10:32 PM

The sun rises, but not for one man. As you come out into the village you find a door smashed and the bloody remains of JAG sprawled in his doorway.

Day begins.

PackerFanatic · 06-15-2011, 10:32 PM

bhlloy WAS a wolf. Which almost guarantees that Narc has to be his partner.

PackerFanatic · 06-15-2011, 10:37 PM

Zinto: had a key second vote on bhlloy yesterday, also jumped in on the run tonight quickly. Unlikely would hang out his buddy to dry.

Spleen: saved himself tonight with a vote to the wolf. Can't imagine we were wolf-wolf tonight, but it's possible.

Narc: voted me and then switched to known villager yesterday. Full head of steam on spleen all day today.

Danny: no-show yesterday, cast a key vote on the wolf today.

PackerFanatic · 06-15-2011, 10:38 PM

Narc seems the most likely at this point. Unless Danny or Zinto have been playing ballsy as hell

Danny · 06-15-2011, 10:39 PM

Wow good work packer, I guess we almost have to keep believing you and hope chubs wasn't te seer

spleen1015 · 06-15-2011, 10:45 PM

Nice work guys.

JAG · 06-15-2011, 10:46 PM

Speculation thread open for those interested.

Danny · 06-15-2011, 10:47 PM

I'm interested

JAG · 06-15-2011, 10:50 PM

And not currently playing, forgot that caveat.

Danny · 06-15-2011, 10:56 PM

Danny · 06-15-2011, 11:18 PM

With the way the game it is, going forward I am going to assume Packer is the seer and Bh was a wolf. If it turns out that is wrong, then well played Packer, but we really have no choice but to go with this give the lack of info.

Danny · 06-15-2011, 11:19 PM

So the five players left are

Spleen
Narcizo
Zinto
Packerfanatic
Danny

I think Narcizo is Bh's most likely wolf partner, but I'll look closer at it before voting

Danny · 06-15-2011, 11:21 PM

Day 1
packerfanatic - spleen1015 (51)
bhlloy - mauboy1 (56), Zinto (78), Chubby (128)
Mauboy1 - JAG (86), PackerFanatic (88), Narcizo (89), bhlloy (129)

Danny · 06-15-2011, 11:21 PM

Oh and Danny with no vote

Danny · 06-15-2011, 11:21 PM

Day 2

spleen - narcizo (177), bhlloy (192), JAG (279)
bhlloy - packerfan (281), zinto (283), danny (284), spleen (296)

Danny · 06-15-2011, 11:23 PM

Both days Narc and bhlloy stacked their votes on the same candidate, so that's very interesting. As Packer said, Zinto with key bh votes both days, so I will not be voting him. Bh with a key second vote on Spleen likely rules him out. I had a key vote on bh as well, so I am not a great candidate either.

I think it's pretty clear what the best way to go is.

Vote Narcizo

I seriously doubt I'll be needing to change this

Zinto · 06-15-2011, 11:40 PM

I can't buy this outcome to be honest. Why would the wolves leave Packer alive if he was going to find a wolf? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to be honest.

Why would the wolves kill Jag if he was certain that Narcizo and Bhlloy where not wolves if that is the most likely scenario. This is not adding up at all in my mind and I am beginning to believe that Packer is a wolf. I want to hear what Narcizo has to say about everything but right now I just can not shake this feeling that this is going all wrong.

Zinto · 06-15-2011, 11:46 PM

I also can't see a scenario where Bhlloy is a wolf and puts up the kind of fight he did. He didn't do anything to try and stop himself from getting lynched which should have caused us to try and move our votes off him.

Narcizo · 06-16-2011, 03:21 AM

Interesting turn of events. I dunno what to make of it really. Packer looked the most suspicious but I know he's a villager so I don't know what to think, one possibility is that we're close to winning the game, the other is that we're very close to losing it, and I can't for the life of me work out which it is.

Yeah, I'm the seer. I realise that that is going to be met with suspicion but I can't help that.

Day One - JAG. I pretended that I wasn't following JAG on day one but as he was a villager I felt it was in my interest to vote him.

Day Two - Packer. I was getting a gut read that Packer was a wolf when I went to bed so I put in an order on him with a conditional on mau. Once he came up villager I guess I should just have upped and revealed. I tried to deflect attention from the mau voters but I guess I should have realised that one of them was a wolf and voted bhlloy - but I actually thought there was more chance that spleen was a wolf.

Day Three - I had a conditional order spleen unless lynched then Danny, as it would be tough to get a read on him. Spleen came up villager.

Which means that either a wolf lynched a wolf yesterday - or Packer was lying to save himself and is the sorceror. Case a is pretty bizarre, case b basically means the game is lost, unless Packer is right without knowing it.

Narcizo · 06-16-2011, 03:23 AM

When I say "villager" I mean non-wolf, obviously. Unfortunately I don't get a full scan result.

Narcizo · 06-16-2011, 04:02 AM

Assuming Packer is a sorceror and mau and bhlloy were villagers then all the sorceror has to do is vote for himself and the game is over. So there's no point chasing that one any further.

Packer is on the up and up. He's a villager and bhlloy is a wolf. Either zinto or danny must be a wolf and they voted for a team-member. Spleen might be the sorceror, which would explain him keeping his vote out of the way yesterday.

Packer is a sorceror but either mau or bhlloy was a wolf. If bhlloy was a wolf then the situation is pretty much the same as above. If mau was a wolf then it looks like we want to look at people who didn't vote mau, which leads us to zinto or Danny.

Dunno, the more I think about it the more I think the village has lost. Doesn't help that I'm trying to do a hundred things at work at the same time.

Narcizo · 06-16-2011, 04:26 AM

I suspect I'm wasting my time here but if there's any chance that we aren't at the stage of 2 wolves and a sorceror then I might as well try covering the angles.

I get the definite feeling that bhlloy was a villager. He put up very little in the way of a fight. Mau I'm not so sure about, he tried the fake reveal last time and it bit his butt so maybe he thought gutting it out as a vanilla would make people move at the last moment. If he was a wolf then I presume chubby was the real priest. So Packer must be a sorceror. If he is a sorceror then we don't want to vote for him. That leaves Danny and zinto. I've been getting a pretty villagey feel from zinto so that pretty much leaves me going this way for the time being.

Vote Danny

I'm not dead cert on this because everything is just too complicated at the moment. I'd like input here really.

Narcizo · 06-16-2011, 04:38 AM

I haven't left much in the way of overt pointers to me being a seer. I've dropped a few "see"s in to sentences on the first day but really I get very leery about doing that, as I presume that wolves are going to be looking out for exactly that sort of thing and pick up on it.

I thought a long time about coming out with the information I had on day two, and probably should have. I was going to come out with it but wanted to see the reactions first. Eventually I decided that either bhlloy and/or spleen must be a wolf and it was them in the running at the time so me giving up that information would serve no purpose. I literally sat in front of the computer for half an hour deciding what to do but I just wanted another shot at getting a wolf.

spleen1015 · 06-16-2011, 07:28 AM

3 people have presented their thoughts already today and all 3 of them present good cases that 3 different people are wolves.

Narc is the only person to not vote for bhlloy which screams wolf to me if bhlloy was in fact a wolf. We assume this based on what PackerFanatic is telling us.

PackerFanatic reveals as the Priest and there is a run on bhlloy. The only person capable of revealing anything is PackerFanatic and he reveals bhlloy as a wolf. You get everyone to move to a person who only you can give any information about. Fishy.

Narc reveals as seer today and says JAG, PackerFanatic and I are villagers. I know I am and we know JAG is since he was NKed. Should we believe that PF is?

I am still suspicious of Narc from yesterday. I don't know about PackerFanatic. I hope he's being truthful.

I don't have anything on Danny and Zinto which scares me. If I was the Seer, I think I would have scanned Danny Night 1 to see what he was since he was MIA on Day 1.

Should be an interesting day.

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:16 AM

Wow, you guys do realize Narc just posted that he has made 3 SCANS. THIS IS ONLY DAY 3, and that's IMPOSSIBLE. Narc is a wolf

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:17 AM

Wait, actually the seer gets the night 0 scan

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:19 AM

Actually looking back, Packer claimed to have only made one scan at the time of his reveal when actually he would have had two scans. So Narc's reveal is actually more plausible.

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:20 AM

I wish i had the rules more closely and knew that when he revealed. So based on Narc's scan however, Packer would be the sorcerer. But if he was, he could simply reveal as that and the wolves could win a majority vote.

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:20 AM

Unvote Narcizo

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:21 AM

Any chance Narc and Packer are out two wolves though and they simply know Chubs was the wolf?

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:21 AM

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:22 AM

Packer fake revealing if he was the sorcerer is a very bad move in that role. If I was the sorc, I would take my lynch because if I fake revealed, I might get a wolf lynched instead.

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:25 AM

Based on Packer making the same mistake I did regarding the number of scans, he clearly is not the seer. So the question is whether Narc and Packer are both wolves, or they are both not wolves. It can't be a one wolf, one villager situation.

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:26 AM

Considering I really don't see ZInto and Spleen as the two wolves, I still think Narc and Packer are wolves

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:31 AM

Vote Packerfanatic

If he is the sorcerer and two wolves are left, we lost anyway. If he is the sorcerer and only one wolf left, I think it's a good call to lynch him and take our shot tomorrow. If he comes up wolf, Narc is our other wolf and we win.

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:33 AM

Ugg except we won't know what packer comes up lol

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:33 AM

I think Lathum had the right idea about this game

Autumn · 06-16-2011, 08:35 AM

Way to catch up on the post count, Danny!

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:37 AM

They made it easy for me

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:43 AM

Also, further on Zinto's thoughts, if I was a wolf, wouldn't I take a shot at packer thinking he was the seer and not Jag.

In general pulling off a claimed seer near deadline is the right move, but I wish I had stuck with my gut and kept it on Packer. I don't see me changing this vote today. And I'll be following it up with Narc tomorrow.

spleen1015 · 06-16-2011, 08:52 AM

My gut tells me that Packer faked revealed as well to get the heat off of him and get a villager killed. I had a feeling the the first reveal was going to receive lots of favor. That's why I think Packer is a wolf fake revealing in the hopes that the real Priest was dead. Since no one has contested that....

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

PackerFanatic · 06-16-2011, 08:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

Based on Packer making the same mistake I did regarding the number of scans, he clearly is not the seer. So the question is whether Narc and Packer are both wolves, or they are both not wolves. It can't be a one wolf, one villager situation.

Huh? The seer got a night 0 scan, giving to them by Autumn. The priest (me) did NOT get a night 0 scan, since I can only scan dead people. So I got my first scan on night 1, and I scanned the only dead person at the time (mauboy). Last night (night 2), I could have scanned Chubby (the night 1 NK) or bhlloy (the day 2 lynch) and I went with bhlloy.

PackerFanatic · 06-16-2011, 08:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zinto

I can't buy this outcome to be honest. Why would the wolves leave Packer alive if he was going to find a wolf? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to be honest.

Why would the wolves kill Jag if he was certain that Narcizo and Bhlloy where not wolves if that is the most likely scenario. This is not adding up at all in my mind and I am beginning to believe that Packer is a wolf. I want to hear what Narcizo has to say about everything but right now I just can not shake this feeling that this is going all wrong.

The only reason I can think I was left alive was because the remaining wolf wasn't around to change the order. I would have to assume that I would have been offed had that wolf been around.

You guys are way off base voting me.

PackerFanatic · 06-16-2011, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spleen1015

My gut tells me that Packer faked revealed as well to get the heat off of him and get a villager killed. I had a feeling the the first reveal was going to receive lots of favor. That's why I think Packer is a wolf fake revealing in the hopes that the real Priest was dead. Since no one has contested that....

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

I would have absolutely no way of knowing if the real priest was dead though. With only 2 people dead at the time, the odds are not in my favor to fake that reveal. And we know the priest has to be in this game, otherwise the village has virtually no chance to win.

Danny · 06-16-2011, 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

The only reason I can think I was left alive was because the remaining wolf wasn't around to change the order. I would have to assume that I would have been offed had that wolf been around.

You guys are way off base voting me.

The remaining wolf? Bh was a wolf according to you and around. He could have changed the order before he died.

PackerFanatic · 06-16-2011, 08:57 AM

If you guys lynch me, unless we get lucky and still have a hunter out there, this game is likely over tonight - and not in our favor.

PackerFanatic · 06-16-2011, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danny

The remaining wolf? Bh was a wolf according to you and around. He could have changed the order before he died.

Ah yeah - I was looking at my vote list and didn't see him toward the end, but I do see his post from right before deadline. Then I don't know why I wouldn't have been offed. Obviously they had a good reason, because now you're all coming after me anyway

Danny · 06-16-2011, 09:00 AM

So Packer, no response to the fact that you had the seer rules wrong and should have had two scans to reveal yesterday?

06-15-2011, 10:56 PM	#312
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Lol

06-16-2011, 08:21 AM	#333
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	our*

06-15-2011, 10:03 PM	#301
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Well, we almost assuredly blew it with the bhlloy lynch unless he and Narcizo are the wolves.

06-15-2011, 10:21 PM	#302
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Well at least we can use info from VHS lynch now, oh wait

06-15-2011, 10:32 PM	#303
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	The sun rises, but not for one man. As you come out into the village you find a door smashed and the bloody remains of JAG sprawled in his doorway. Day begins.

06-15-2011, 10:32 PM	#304
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	bhlloy WAS a wolf. Which almost guarantees that Narc has to be his partner.

06-15-2011, 10:37 PM	#305
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	Zinto: had a key second vote on bhlloy yesterday, also jumped in on the run tonight quickly. Unlikely would hang out his buddy to dry. Spleen: saved himself tonight with a vote to the wolf. Can't imagine we were wolf-wolf tonight, but it's possible. Narc: voted me and then switched to known villager yesterday. Full head of steam on spleen all day today. Danny: no-show yesterday, cast a key vote on the wolf today.

06-15-2011, 10:38 PM	#306
PackerFanatic Pro Starter Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Appleton, WI	Narc seems the most likely at this point. Unless Danny or Zinto have been playing ballsy as hell

06-15-2011, 10:39 PM	#307
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Wow good work packer, I guess we almost have to keep believing you and hope chubs wasn't te seer

06-15-2011, 10:45 PM	#308
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	Nice work guys.

06-15-2011, 10:46 PM	#309
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	Speculation thread open for those interested.

06-15-2011, 10:47 PM	#310
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I'm interested

06-15-2011, 10:50 PM	#311
JAG Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: St. Paul, MN	And not currently playing, forgot that caveat.

06-15-2011, 11:18 PM	#313
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	With the way the game it is, going forward I am going to assume Packer is the seer and Bh was a wolf. If it turns out that is wrong, then well played Packer, but we really have no choice but to go with this give the lack of info.

06-15-2011, 11:19 PM	#314
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	So the five players left are Spleen Narcizo Zinto Packerfanatic Danny I think Narcizo is Bh's most likely wolf partner, but I'll look closer at it before voting

06-15-2011, 11:21 PM	#315
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Day 1 packerfanatic - spleen1015 (51) bhlloy - mauboy1 (56), Zinto (78), Chubby (128) Mauboy1 - JAG (86), PackerFanatic (88), Narcizo (89), bhlloy (129)

06-15-2011, 11:21 PM	#316
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Oh and Danny with no vote

06-15-2011, 11:21 PM	#317
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Day 2 spleen - narcizo (177), bhlloy (192), JAG (279) bhlloy - packerfan (281), zinto (283), danny (284), spleen (296)

06-15-2011, 11:23 PM	#318
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Both days Narc and bhlloy stacked their votes on the same candidate, so that's very interesting. As Packer said, Zinto with key bh votes both days, so I will not be voting him. Bh with a key second vote on Spleen likely rules him out. I had a key vote on bh as well, so I am not a great candidate either. I think it's pretty clear what the best way to go is. Vote Narcizo I seriously doubt I'll be needing to change this

06-15-2011, 11:40 PM	#319
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	I can't buy this outcome to be honest. Why would the wolves leave Packer alive if he was going to find a wolf? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to be honest. Why would the wolves kill Jag if he was certain that Narcizo and Bhlloy where not wolves if that is the most likely scenario. This is not adding up at all in my mind and I am beginning to believe that Packer is a wolf. I want to hear what Narcizo has to say about everything but right now I just can not shake this feeling that this is going all wrong.

06-15-2011, 11:46 PM	#320
Zinto College Starter Join Date: Jan 2011	I also can't see a scenario where Bhlloy is a wolf and puts up the kind of fight he did. He didn't do anything to try and stop himself from getting lynched which should have caused us to try and move our votes off him.

06-16-2011, 03:21 AM	#321
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Interesting turn of events. I dunno what to make of it really. Packer looked the most suspicious but I know he's a villager so I don't know what to think, one possibility is that we're close to winning the game, the other is that we're very close to losing it, and I can't for the life of me work out which it is. Yeah, I'm the seer. I realise that that is going to be met with suspicion but I can't help that. Day One - JAG. I pretended that I wasn't following JAG on day one but as he was a villager I felt it was in my interest to vote him. Day Two - Packer. I was getting a gut read that Packer was a wolf when I went to bed so I put in an order on him with a conditional on mau. Once he came up villager I guess I should just have upped and revealed. I tried to deflect attention from the mau voters but I guess I should have realised that one of them was a wolf and voted bhlloy - but I actually thought there was more chance that spleen was a wolf. Day Three - I had a conditional order spleen unless lynched then Danny, as it would be tough to get a read on him. Spleen came up villager. Which means that either a wolf lynched a wolf yesterday - or Packer was lying to save himself and is the sorceror. Case a is pretty bizarre, case b basically means the game is lost, unless Packer is right without knowing it.

06-16-2011, 03:23 AM	#322
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	When I say "villager" I mean non-wolf, obviously. Unfortunately I don't get a full scan result.

06-16-2011, 04:02 AM	#323
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	Assuming Packer is a sorceror and mau and bhlloy were villagers then all the sorceror has to do is vote for himself and the game is over. So there's no point chasing that one any further. Packer is on the up and up. He's a villager and bhlloy is a wolf. Either zinto or danny must be a wolf and they voted for a team-member. Spleen might be the sorceror, which would explain him keeping his vote out of the way yesterday. Packer is a sorceror but either mau or bhlloy was a wolf. If bhlloy was a wolf then the situation is pretty much the same as above. If mau was a wolf then it looks like we want to look at people who didn't vote mau, which leads us to zinto or Danny. Dunno, the more I think about it the more I think the village has lost. Doesn't help that I'm trying to do a hundred things at work at the same time.

06-16-2011, 04:26 AM	#324
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	I suspect I'm wasting my time here but if there's any chance that we aren't at the stage of 2 wolves and a sorceror then I might as well try covering the angles. I get the definite feeling that bhlloy was a villager. He put up very little in the way of a fight. Mau I'm not so sure about, he tried the fake reveal last time and it bit his butt so maybe he thought gutting it out as a vanilla would make people move at the last moment. If he was a wolf then I presume chubby was the real priest. So Packer must be a sorceror. If he is a sorceror then we don't want to vote for him. That leaves Danny and zinto. I've been getting a pretty villagey feel from zinto so that pretty much leaves me going this way for the time being. Vote Danny I'm not dead cert on this because everything is just too complicated at the moment. I'd like input here really.

06-16-2011, 04:38 AM	#325
Narcizo Pro Rookie Join Date: Jan 2006	I haven't left much in the way of overt pointers to me being a seer. I've dropped a few "see"s in to sentences on the first day but really I get very leery about doing that, as I presume that wolves are going to be looking out for exactly that sort of thing and pick up on it. I thought a long time about coming out with the information I had on day two, and probably should have. I was going to come out with it but wanted to see the reactions first. Eventually I decided that either bhlloy and/or spleen must be a wolf and it was them in the running at the time so me giving up that information would serve no purpose. I literally sat in front of the computer for half an hour deciding what to do but I just wanted another shot at getting a wolf.

06-16-2011, 07:28 AM	#326
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	3 people have presented their thoughts already today and all 3 of them present good cases that 3 different people are wolves. Narc is the only person to not vote for bhlloy which screams wolf to me if bhlloy was in fact a wolf. We assume this based on what PackerFanatic is telling us. PackerFanatic reveals as the Priest and there is a run on bhlloy. The only person capable of revealing anything is PackerFanatic and he reveals bhlloy as a wolf. You get everyone to move to a person who only you can give any information about. Fishy. Narc reveals as seer today and says JAG, PackerFanatic and I are villagers. I know I am and we know JAG is since he was NKed. Should we believe that PF is? I am still suspicious of Narc from yesterday. I don't know about PackerFanatic. I hope he's being truthful. I don't have anything on Danny and Zinto which scares me. If I was the Seer, I think I would have scanned Danny Night 1 to see what he was since he was MIA on Day 1. Should be an interesting day.

06-16-2011, 08:16 AM	#327
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Wow, you guys do realize Narc just posted that he has made 3 SCANS. THIS IS ONLY DAY 3, and that's IMPOSSIBLE. Narc is a wolf

06-16-2011, 08:17 AM	#328
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Wait, actually the seer gets the night 0 scan

06-16-2011, 08:19 AM	#329
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Actually looking back, Packer claimed to have only made one scan at the time of his reveal when actually he would have had two scans. So Narc's reveal is actually more plausible.

06-16-2011, 08:20 AM	#330
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	I wish i had the rules more closely and knew that when he revealed. So based on Narc's scan however, Packer would be the sorcerer. But if he was, he could simply reveal as that and the wolves could win a majority vote.

06-16-2011, 08:20 AM	#331
Danny Head Coach Join Date: Jul 2001	Unvote Narcizo