WW LXXXV -- Life Contingencies II (GAME OVER)

[RendeR]

GRRR


UNVOTE ALAN T

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[RendeR]

I'm actually kind of hoping path stays the course. he can't make his chances any better by moving and all moving will do is make it look like Alan is a wolf too.

[hoopsguy]

I'm more interested in seeing what Packer and Chief do today than Path at this point.

I'm always trying to 'drive the logic train', good or bad But my gut has been pretty lousy lately, so hopefully I'm flipping between two wolves. If not, chances are I'll pick the wrong one (sigh).

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I'm actually kind of hoping path stays the course. he can't make his chances any better by moving and all moving will do is make it look like Alan is a wolf too.

Alan didn't move so I see no reason to either.

[hoopsguy]

Path, do you really think that Alan is a wolf? Or is this just you being stubborn and voting for him because he voted for you?

[Chief Rum]

All right, I just walked in the door. I will try to do a real quick scan and get a vote in. Any help, of course, would be appreciated.

[hoopsguy]

Vote count:
Path - Alan (252), Packer (256)
Alan - Path (253)
Packer - Hoops (296), RendeR (301)

[hoopsguy]

If we are still playing after the deadline I would be more than happy to have a conversation with you about my posts during the day. But I do not think I can easily summarize them in 4 minutes other than to say my theories were predicated upon likeliness of two-wolf combos.

[Chief Rum]

VOTE HOOPS

[Chief Rum]

Ran out of time, so I voted the guy most suspicious to me at the moment. But I admit it's a gut reaction, and probably more than a little influenced by his gunning for me. Plus, since I ran out of time, I didn't read the last page of the thread yet (going back now).

[hoopsguy]

OK, let me know when you are caught up and then you can tell me why you put the vote there.

It seems to me that as a wolf it doesn't really matter all that much where you would put your vote - you can't undo a percentage on your fellow wolf, so does it really matter how the "non-wolf" percentage really breaks out?

[Chief Rum]

Damn, hoops switched out of his vote on me. Sorry, hoops. If you get the lynch and are good, then I will willingly offer msyelf up to the village as a self-sacrifice.

Glad you changed your mind, though, and sorry I didn't get home from work sooner.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, let me know when you are caught up and then you can tell me why you put the vote there.

It seems to me that as a wolf it doesn't really matter all that much where you would put your vote - you can't undo a percentage on your fellow wolf, so does it really matter how the "non-wolf" percentage really breaks out?

Because at the point I had read up to (on the page before this one, I go with 50 post thread pages), you had, IMO, locked in on me despite no one else following you on it, and were devising scenarios to talk yourself into it being a good idea to lynch me.

Credit to you that you changed your mind, but I didn't have a choice at that point. It was 6 p.m. on the dot, and I had to get a vote in. Mea culpa.

[Chief Rum]

All of which, I thoroughly renounce, should you turn out to be a wolf, which will then change to me being completely awesome at WW.

...Or something like that.

[hoopsguy]

Depending on how many wolves are left, it may not matter which villager dies today.

If there were four starting wolves, a bad vote = game over

If there were three starting wolves with a brutal (do not think this is the case after the mod comments on cunning wolf) then bad vote = game over

If there were just three normal wolves, then a bad vote makes it a 2-2 game. Hopefully the bad lynch plus night kill provide clarity for the remaining two villagers. 60% chance that RendeR is around tomorrow as one of the villagers; hopefully we get at least one good roll this game.

[hoopsguy]

Chief, if you have a chance go through the "two wolf" matrix scenarios that I put out there - what combinations, out of six possible, would make sense to you and why?

[hoopsguy]

Ditto you, RendeR - although I'm not worried about you as a wolf, so I won't be parsing your comments for potential BS

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Once again, here is the premise of my argument:
1.) There must be at least three wolves in the game since there were 3 in a 9 person game and we have 12 in this game.
2.) One of the wolves (Hannibal) is dead, leaving 2+ wolves
3.) RendeR, scanned by the seer, is a known good in a game without a cunning wolf

If you (generic "you" reading this) are a villager then that leaves four untrusted. I'm putting in my matrix, but anyone who is a villager should just substitute me out for themselves when looking at the results to make sure they fully consider me (Hoopsguy).

Chief Rum\Path
Chief Rum\Alan
Cheif Rum\Packer Fanatic

Path\Alan
Path\Packer Fanatic

Alan\PackerFanatic

One of these six combos must be a pair of wolves. Which ones can you rationalize? Which ones do not make sense?

Here's my grouping then:

Hoops\Path-- I can see this, but it's more based on Path than hoops. I doubt both are villagers.
Hoops\Alan-- I think either you're both villagers, or one of you is a wolf. My gut says neither of you are wolves.
Hoops\Packer Fanatic-- No real read on PF, and I think it's possible you're a wolf, even though once again, I lean slightly against that. But I can see this.

Path\Alan-- I don't see these guys as wolves together. If I had to pick one, it would be Path.
Path\Packer Fanatic-- I think if I had to pick a pair, this might be it. Path has been suspicious, IMO, and PF missed the critical vote.

Alan\PackerFanatic-- This could be the case, but it's hard for me to see Alan as a wolf if I think path is a wolf.

I guess I would put it Path/Alan, Path/PF and Path/hoops, in that order, for pairs I see as most wolf like.

Obviously, determining path's allegiance is, IMO, critical to determine everyone else's allegiance (but we learn something from Alan's allegiance as well).

[hoopsguy]

I don't see any way that you have Path/Alan/Hannibal as the starting wolves and they play it the way that they have this game. No way that makes sense to me.

Path/PF would have made sense to me, right up to the point where PF voted for him today (and did not move it). I do not think wolves are throwing votes at each other on D4.

As I told Alan, I haven't spent as much time thinking about me as part of a wolf pair because I'm not part of one. I have tried to offer up reasons that I am not a wolf, but they are not predicated on my play versus others in most cases. I did put Path in some jeopardy on D1 by suggesting that I would follow Lathum on his voting direction.

[hoopsguy]

Anyway, neither you nor PF voted for each other today which doesn't help dissuade my notion that you two are the last remaining wolves. But I'm having a tough time getting Alan/Path to listen to any arguments - which is a bummer for me if they are villagers.

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:
Path - Alan (252), Packer (256)
Packer - Hoops (296), RendeR (301)
Alan - Path (253)
hoopsguy -- Chief Rum (309)

[Passacaglia]

The villagers decide that PackerFanatic should die today. PackerFanatic was a villager!

[hoopsguy]

Wow. Color me very, very curious to see who are the wolves at the end of this one and to hear about their play.

[Chief Rum]

I mis-wrote. I meant Path/PF as the lead, and every other group relatively far behind, but probably led by you/path & PF/Alan.

Since obviously now PF is a villager, he was just being an UTR villager who missed a vote, and that removes two of my three most suspicious. WHich leaves you and path, as my most suspicious now.

This is further aided by your vote on PF. IMO, you're a little more elevated now as a result of this than you were when I first did the grouping set.

[PackerFanatic]

Gah - I wasn't able to back in after work before now...what a shame. Good luck guys

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, do you really think that Alan is a wolf? Or is this just you being stubborn and voting for him because he voted for you?

I think I'm being stubborn more than anything else. That alone tells me I need a break.

[path12]

Oh for God's sake. What's a guy have to do to get killed around here?

[hoopsguy]

OK, in the event that I'm not around tomorrow I would suggest voting Alan and Chief to end the game.

Render = obviously not villager
Chief = acted to bury Path, help Alan on D2 vote

I'm very surprised that the wolves would play this way on D2, with Hannibal being able to move his vote to help Alan. The best that they could do without moving this vote was to get Alan in a tie and hope for the best (62.5% chance of success, once you figure that PF is not going to vote).

Best I can figure, Alan's schedule was going to be hectic in the back half of the week, so they had Alan play more over-the-top than normal to draw fire. Hannibal came in as the 3rd vote, so that must have been a "jump on the bus now" move in the even that there was a runaway.

Alan also tried to take credit for being after Hannibal all game, while in fact he was naming Hannibal with a pair of villagers and never voting for Hannibal until the seer had fingered his fellow wolf.

Anyway, we are going to need to win some dice rolls from here on out, something we have not done all game long.

I'm just annoyed that I switched today - if RendeR would have followed me onto Chief (as he did with Packer) then we probably have ourselves a wolf with this vote.

Oh well, I think the game is kinda paint-by-numbers at this point. Just in case, I'll be voting for Chief Rum first tomorrow on the off chance that Alan is a brutal wolf. I doubt that role is in the game, but if it is then the play so far is more indicative of Alan in this role than Chief.

[hoopsguy]

Er, correction.

Render = obviously not wolf.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

OK, in the event that I'm not around tomorrow I would suggest voting Alan and Chief to end the game.

Render = obviously not villager
Chief = acted to bury Path, help Alan on D2 vote

I'm very surprised that the wolves would play this way on D2, with Hannibal being able to move his vote to help Alan. The best that they could do without moving this vote was to get Alan in a tie and hope for the best (62.5% chance of success, once you figure that PF is not going to vote).

Best I can figure, Alan's schedule was going to be hectic in the back half of the week, so they had Alan play more over-the-top than normal to draw fire. Hannibal came in as the 3rd vote, so that must have been a "jump on the bus now" move in the even that there was a runaway.

Alan also tried to take credit for being after Hannibal all game, while in fact he was naming Hannibal with a pair of villagers and never voting for Hannibal until the seer had fingered his fellow wolf.

Anyway, we are going to need to win some dice rolls from here on out, something we have not done all game long.

I'm just annoyed that I switched today - if RendeR would have followed me onto Chief (as he did with Packer) then we probably have ourselves a wolf with this vote.

Oh well, I think the game is kinda paint-by-numbers at this point. Just in case, I'll be voting for Chief Rum first tomorrow on the off chance that Alan is a brutal wolf. I doubt that role is in the game, but if it is then the play so far is more indicative of Alan in this role than Chief.

So you don't suspect path at all? That seems to be everyone else's top suspect.

I am really beginning to like my path/hoops pair.

So how's your voting record, hoops?

[Alan T]

Wolves had better kill me tonight. I will say right now I will be voting Path again tommorrow. The villagers have been shafted by random.org the entire game, we're due for actually getting one to go our way. So if you want to take the chance that I lynch Path with my vote even if it is by itself, then go ahead and keep me alive.

[Passacaglia]

You wake up in the morning and realize that hoopsguy is not among the living. hoopsguy was a villager!

[Passacaglia]

I'll be out of the office most of the day today, so even email won't reach me. Results might be later than usual as well, but to be fair we'll keep the same deadline as usual.

[Alan T]

Well finally a random.org went our way for once. There are only four people left now? Path, Chief Rum, Render and myself correct? I guess I know exactly who the wolves are now and I think there is no way for me to convince Render that it is Path + Chief Rum and not me + Chief Rum probably.

Render, here is what I propose.. I have been going after Path all game. I am willing to vote Chief Rum instead of Path today if that will prove to you that I am not the wolf. With the assumption that you will not believe that Path + me are a wolf duo, that seems like the most logical way to win your trust here.

Actually, I'll vote for either of them, whichever one you vote for if you want.. because voting either of them is a good vote. If either you or I get lynched here the game is over, so we have to lynch one of them. Either way I assume the vote will end up 2 vs 2, and at best our odds of getting past this vote is only 50/50.

I'm not going to apologize for going after you all game either Render. I still do think I was absolutely correct with my assessment of the way I felt you play. Obviously you agree with me and there is 5 days worth of that to go back and re-read if we want to hash out that argument. I know for sure that Path is a wolf now just based on who is left, so I think my original comments regarding your support of his actions still are sound. For the sake of trying to salvage the game, can we put all of that aside and just try to make the right move today? We can then yell at each other or insult each other after the game is over all we want?

Anyways.. I guess the decision is really up to you.. I know who to vote for now, so the worst case if you do vote for me, the village still has a 25% chance of surviving the day.

[Chief Rum]

Disappointed to see hoops is a villager. My gut always said he was, but his decisions the past couple days were really odd. It was looking to me like he was playing his typical game that just went awry last night when PackerFanatic got the unlucky vote, and that's where hoops' vote was.

Not surprised to see the voluminous post from Alan trying to plead to you to ignore your instincts on this one, Render.

Fact is, I have been on path all game and even tossed a vote on him late in Day Two, the critical vote. What fellow wolf would do that? Me and path makes no sense as wolves, and you know that.

Of course, Alan and path are also not an expected wolf pair with the way they have gone after each other, so that throws me a bit. But then I haven't gotten too much right this game. And of course, if anyone could do the argue with each other for trust thing, it's experienced players like Alan and path.

I can go either way, Alan or path. Path probably makes more sense, so I will vote for him, but if you want to vote for Alan, I will certainly consider switching when I return from work. I don't like us going into this at 50-50 tonight, not with the way random.org has been this game.

Vote whichever way makes the most sense to you.

VOTE PATH

[Alan T]

Based on Chief's vote, I am assuming that he is working off of the hope that I will vote Path as well, or that Render will see it and correlate that Chief and I must be wolves together thus I must be bad.

Either way, I assume Chief is hoping Render will vote for me, and when he returns home at the end of the day of work, he'll happily prove to Render that he is working with him by moving his vote to me.

For me, it doesn't matter which way I vote Path or Chief. either way my vote has a 25% chance of killing a wolf. So I'll try to counter Chief's goal by putting my vote in the appropriate place.

Vote Chief Rum

[Alan T]

Plus it is crazy what Chief is saying in his post, there is no way in a game like this where every vote has an added chance of lynch that I would actively campaign for the entire game to try to get Path lynched. Even if you think there is a chance I am bad Render, I assume you have to think that I am bad with Chief if anyone. So vote Chief, that is perfectly fine with me.

[RendeR]

I will wait to hear from path, once he's voted I'll crunch some numbers and see what I figure out.

[RendeR]

Worst case we have 50/25/25 going into tonight and should catch a break from the randomizer. I highly doubt I'll put a second vote on you at this point Alan. between you and hoops yesterday I'm coming to accept you as good, if you're bad then you've done a damn fine job of screwing with all of us. You can be that good too, which bothers me a bit. But we'll see.

One of path/Rum MUST be a wolf assuming there are 2 left, so its safe enough to leave you be for another night.

So depending on Path's vote, which I'm vully expecting to be on Alan, I'll decide where to put mine.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Worst case we have 50/25/25 going into tonight and should catch a break from the randomizer. I highly doubt I'll put a second vote on you at this point Alan. between you and hoops yesterday I'm coming to accept you as good, if you're bad then you've done a damn fine job of screwing with all of us. You can be that good too, which bothers me a bit. But we'll see.

One of path/Rum MUST be a wolf assuming there are 2 left, so its safe enough to leave you be for another night.

So depending on Path's vote, which I'm vully expecting to be on Alan, I'll decide where to put mine.

I'm not going to push you to which of the other two to vote for. In my mind, either one is just as good as the other. The only bad vote for you today would be to vote me as that would lower our chances to win.

Even if you and I split our votes, 1 on Path and 1 on Chief, that is 25% on each and a total of 50% on the wolves. So that is just as good in my mind as having us vote together. Like I said, I fully expect Chief Rum to move his vote later today at the deadline to me anyways.

[path12]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I will wait to hear from path, once he's voted I'll crunch some numbers and see what I figure out.

I've got nothing different from yesterday, though obviously we've got a situation where you are known good and none of the rest of us are. All the arguments have been made already and I don't want to rehash them for the zillionth time. What I know is that I'm good, you are scanned good as well so that leaves Alan/Chief as wolves so once again I will......

VOTE ALAN T

I'm out of here in about 30 minutes for the weekend. I'll see what happened on Sunday. Good luck to us.

[Chief Rum]

I'm not sure why I would switch from my surest bet of a wolf, at least going back most of the game now, in path. I will only consider it if Render votes for you, as I would want a 3/4 vote for a wolf, and that's the only way it will happen.

[Chief Rum]

Where's Render?

[Chief Rum]

Alan smells funny. I'm switching.

UNVOTE PATH

VOTE ALAN T

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Alan smells funny. I'm switching.

UNVOTE PATH

VOTE ALAN T

I am shocked.. no really!

And I can't believe Render decided to not even vote at all.. bleh.

Well here is to hoping that we actually get lucky on one of these lynch votes for once.

[Alan T]

Well, I assume regardless of what happens with the lynch, the game is over anyways really soon.

If I get lucky and Chief dies, then either render or I will die at night, and then the following day lynch is a 1 vs 1 , where I guess randomness will decide who wins the game.

If I don't get lucky and I die, then game is over now.

I don't know what my availability will be later, so I'll make my comments now.. I appreciate the game, but I don't think I'm a huge fan of the randomness. It stinks when the entire game is spent trying to find the answer to one question (ie: Path's allegiance) and no way to do it.

I also think in hindsight I shouldn't have played in this game. It was no fun for me to try to express what I felt were valid thoughts in an extremely rushed manner since my time online was limited. So it felt I had only a few minutes at a time to post too many thoughts all at once.

I think Lathum ended up either seeing the same thing that I did, or he saw what I was trying to explain.. but he was the only one. This game was lost because I couldn't convey the message clearly enough that there was no valid reason for Path and Hannibal to act the way they did on day 1 and 2 in regards to Lathum and then me unless they were bad.

My lack of time left me without any ability to talk through things with anyone and I just got frustrated completely at comments from some people since they were refusing to look at the evidence in front of us all.

Anyhows.. Chief I didn't have you on my radar at all. If you all had killed Render last night like I assume you tried to, I likely would have assumed it was Path/Hoops as the wolves (especially since he spent all day yesterday trying to move the vote from Path to you and Packerfanatic).. so good job by you. Last night's death of Hoops was perhaps the -only- time this game we've had the roll go our way I guess.

Anyhows.. sorry if I got anyone upset at me.. I don't do well in WW games when I feel frustrated the entire game. It ends up being too much like my first marriage.

[Chief Rum]

Strangely enough, that's a pretty accurate description of the way I felt in the Superheroes game, Mr. F, so now you know why I felt so unfairly under attack there. I wouldn't wish that on anyone, though, so sorry you went through that. I know it absolutely sucked for me.

[RendeR]

Argh, sorry guys. its my night alone with the munchkins and they were quite the distraction for the last hours and a half. My bad =(.

Hopefully luck will side with the good guys.

[RendeR]

If it helps any I was going to vote for CR.

[Danny]

Guess I should still wait to post my thoughts, but like Alan said the game is over with only the randomness left to decide who wins