Soccer Thread 2021-2022

[Ksyrup]

That was an amazing game but someone explain the Mendy thing to me. I was on the treadmill for thr entire game, so I didn't hear the commentating. Absent an injury (which I didn't see), why the F would you switch goalies with a minute left in extra time going into a shootout? Not to mention Mendy made about a half dozen great plays. If there was a pre-game storyline, I was unaware. Fucking stupid is what it was.

That game also illustrates the big flaw in soccer - penalty kicks are too easy for top flight players. About a third of those kicks, the goalies guessed right and still had little to no chance of a stop.

[flere-imsaho]

I love the irony of Kepa being the GK brought on to face penalties when not so long ago a disagreement between him & Sarri over the same thing led to one of the more embarrassing moments of recent CFC history: Maurizio Sarri 'Didn't Want' Kepa Arrizabalaga to Face Penalties in Cup Final | Bleacher Report | Latest News, Videos and Highlights

[bhlloy]

Yeah, it’s worked in the past a few times but I think that’s just been random luck. As a former keeper I can’t imagine anything worse than being brought in cold to face penalties, let alone at this level.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

That was an amazing game but someone explain the Mendy thing to me. I was on the treadmill for thr entire game, so I didn't hear the commentating. Absent an injury (which I didn't see), why the F would you switch goalies with a minute left in extra time going into a shootout? Not to mention Mendy made about a half dozen great plays. If there was a pre-game storyline, I was unaware. Fucking stupid is what it was.

That game also illustrates the big flaw in soccer - penalty kicks are too easy for top flight players. About a third of those kicks, the goalies guessed right and still had little to no chance of a stop.

Blame the data analysts!

Kepa Arrizabalaga's path to becoming Chelsea's penalty king after Carabao Cup dispute - Mirror Online

It was notable that during the UEFA Super Cup against Villarreal, Tuchel decided to bring on the 27-year-old in the 121st minute with the score deadlocked at 1-1. Kepa hadn’t touched the ball before stepping up to face the Spanish side but the German was confident he was a better option than Mendy.

“It wasn't spontaneous. We talked about it with the goalkeepers soon after we came [to the club],” Tuchel said.

“We were well-prepared. We had a statistic that Kepa is the best in terms of saving penalties. The analysts showed me the data and then we spoke with the players that this can happen in knockout games.”

Whoever lost would have been criticized for a goalkeeping decision they made. I liked that Klopp maintained his commitment to Kelleher. Klopp told him he was the goalkeeper for this competition and believed in him all the way to the end

[MIJB#19]

The problem with this kind of data (and this is my presumption on it) is that they will not take into account the other variables at work. You can't blindly go by goalkeeper A stopped 20% and goalkeeper B stopped 24% during their careers. Are penalty kicks during a match the same as penalty shootouts? Was there prior research about whether flipping goalkeepers will improve or decrease the incoming "cold" goalkeeper's chances to stop kicks?

if Goalkeeper A stopped 3 of 15 penalties and Goalkeeper B stopped 6 of 25 penalties, that obviously isn't enough data. And even if we it's 5 times these figures, there are so many other variables. Which teams and players did they face? Which team took the first kick? Were they playing in front of a home crowd? Was this a televised game? Did he break up with his girlfriend or become a daddy recently? Did it rain? Were the floodlights on? Did he play "I know you know so you know I know" mind games with the kick takers? Did lightning strike in a bottle? Was he up for renewal of a contract? Did his team lead or trail for a long time during the game, or was it a 0-0 snoozer? Does he think that the color of the shirt worn makes a difference?

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

That game also illustrates the big flaw in soccer - penalty kicks are too easy for top flight players. About a third of those kicks, the goalies guessed right and still had little to no chance of a stop.

Don't overestimate soccer players in this area, I think you'll find little to no top flight players that never missed a penalty kick.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Don't overestimate soccer players in this area, I think you'll find little to no top flight players that never missed a penalty kick.

Sure, but I have to imagine the percentages are vastly in the favor of the players. I just think the advantage from penalty kicks/shootouts is overblown given the game itself. Scoring is at a premium and fouls hardly count for anything... unless you're in the box in which case it's a nearly automatic goal. But teams with the ball in the box on a normal offensive play only score at a fraction of the rate of penalties. It just seems out of whack/proportion to me.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Sure, but I have to imagine the percentages are vastly in the favor of the players. I just think the advantage from penalty kicks/shootouts is overblown given the game itself. Scoring is at a premium and fouls hardly count for anything... unless you're in the box in which case it's a nearly automatic goal. But teams with the ball in the box on a normal offensive play only score at a fraction of the rate of penalties. It just seems out of whack/proportion to me.

Oh, definitely. Without the desire to dig up actual numbers, my gut feeling says that the average penalty shootout ends up 4-3 after 9.5 kicks, which implies roughly 75% of the kicks are converted.

[flere-imsaho]

The Europa League Final last year also went 11-10.

[JonInMiddleGA]

from the 2014 WC. It goes into how to figure advantages to various scenarios (tho nothing about a GK change) but the key point was this

In the history of the World Cup, teams have made 71.5 percent of their penalty-shootout kicks. But the sample size is not huge, and the percentage has been slightly higher — closer to 75 percent — in other major international tournaments like the European Championships.

A Chart For Predicting Penalty-Shootout Odds in Real Time | FiveThirtyEight

[Solecismic]

I wonder how they'll handle that mini-playoff for the WC spot. Does Slovenia get an invite to play Poland?

[miami_fan]

The qualifiers are not until the 24th so I would not rule out FIFA reinstating Russia if the war has ended. The chances of that happening are not zero IMO.

Slovakia actually finished ahead of Slovenia on goal difference in that group so they would be more likely to get in. I would prefer to see Norway replace Russia. They were the best third place finisher in qualifying. It also provide another opportunity to get a star like Erling Haaland into the World Cup.

Will Ukraine be able to play Scotland in their semifinal?

[Critch]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Will Ukraine be able to play Scotland in their semifinal?

Is it wrong to hope they cant? This might be my last chance to see Scotland in a World Cup again.

[MIJB#19]

With the world cup expanding to 48 teams in 2026, surely the odds for Scotland to get their will improve by 1 or 2 percent? And with FIFA's lunacy, it's not unthinkable to see them come up with a 64-team biannual World Cup from 2029 onwards.

2/3rd of the Ukraine national team plays for Dinamo Kyiv or Shakhtar Donetsk and roughly 1/3rd abroad (none in Russia, it seems). They probably have other things on their mind right now though, but if they get a chance to play, you can never know how pumped up or demotivated they will be. Postponement of the foursome with Austria and Wales wouldn't be an unrealistic compromise. The intercontinental playoffs are scheduled for mid-June, the World Cup itself is more than 8 months away. It could clash with the UEFA Nations League, but surely a solutions can be found.

Concerning Russia, in qualifiers there's usually a walkover when a team is disqualified mid-competition. Had they already qualified for the World Cup, their ticket would have pushed forward to the next-best team they beat (which in this situation would be Slovakia). I think there's enough precedent to expect that to happen here.

[flere-imsaho]

Roman Abramovich has put CFC up for sale. A Swiss billionaire potentially heading a consortium currently appears to be the likely buyer.

[miami_fan]

Do what you would like with this information from the statement he released.

Abramovich will not be asking for any loans to be repaid. The club currently owes Abramovich's cmopany £1.514 billion.

A charitable foundation is being set up "where all net proceeds from the sale will be donated. The foundation will be for the benefit of all victims of the war in Ukraine. This includes providing critical funds towards the urgent and immediate needs of victims, as well as supporting the long-term work of recovery."

[sovereignstar v2]

What a nice little oligarch.

[flere-imsaho]

Just goes to show exactly how rich Abramovich is, if he can basically write all this off (to say nothing of the fire sale of his UK properties reportedly going on).

[RainMaker]

They could just seize the team and sell it at an auction.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

Concerning Russia, in qualifiers there's usually a walkover when a team is disqualified mid-competition. Had they already qualified for the World Cup, their ticket would have pushed forward to the next-best team they beat (which in this situation would be Slovakia). I think there's enough precedent to expect that to happen here.

I wondered if it would be Slovenia if Russia were replaced, rather than just a walk-over for Poland. Reasoning being Slovenia takes second in group H if all the matches with Russia that led to Russia being the second-place finisher were removed from the group. If Russia remains second, but simply declared ineligible to advance, then Slovakia was third.

There's some room to give Abramovich credit for not forcing the UK to do it themselves. And for the foundation. It's not put-up-a-statue credit (as with Oskar Schindler, a former member of the Nazi party), but he is making a choice that he'd rather be part of a world that condemns the invasion than part of Russia's inner circle. If he was ever friends with Putin, he isn't now.

[bhlloy]

One day Kepa will save a football again. One day…

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I wondered if it would be Slovenia if Russia were replaced, rather than just a walk-over for Poland. Reasoning being Slovenia takes second in group H if all the matches with Russia that led to Russia being the second-place finisher were removed from the group. If Russia remains second, but simply declared ineligible to advance, then Slovakia was third.

My memory is failing me to come up with specific examples, but I know there is precedent these kind of situations with disqualifications. A couple of months ago I've complemented my research on all World Cup qualification results of all countries that qualified for the finals tournament or came a playoff away from it. The sad part now is that I compressed it to final standings or who beat who in a playoff, without all the individual game results and points etc. I've seen the situations, but haven't written them down in detail.

Based on that research, I expect the walkover (precedent points into this direction), but I wouldn't be surprised if FIFA gives UEFA the option to go the replacement route, in that case Slovakia gets preference for having beaten Slovenia in the group on overall goal difference. Had the group been discontinued midway through, the solution would indeed have been to exclude all results versus Russia and let the rest of the games play out as scheduled.

[AlexB]

The famous one is Denmark were only playing in the Euros when they won in 1992 because Yugoslavia were DQd because of the war there.

But the qualification process had already completed, so they just selected Denmark in place of Yugoslavia as they finished runners up to them in the group.

[MIJB#19]

And I completely failed to mention that specifically in the UEFA zone, the process of "best third place teams" has been replaced with "best Nations League group winners". That means the next best country is actually Hungary.

[SirFozzie]

Oh fuck. a riot broke out at the Atlas-Querétaro game tonight. Unofficial, unverified report is that there's a number of fatalities. The shots I'm seeing out of mexico look horrid. official reports are of no dead yet, but the shots that I saw on twitter.. *shudder*.

[GrantDawg]

Yeah, unofficially 17 dead. No one is expecting the Mexican authorities to give a factual number. The videos are horrible.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[sterlingice]

Don't know much about soccer, but, if, say, this happened at an MLB/NFL/NBA team, I think it would be fair to just say those two teams can take a good month off and they just take Ls in the standing. Or maybe the rest of the season, depending on how long the season is. It would be one thing if this were player instigated like the Malice in the Palace or some of the baseball brawls from the 70s/80s where you could just levy huge suspensions on the team. But this looks like it was the fans doing it, right?

SI

[SirFozzie]

yeah, apparently the hooligans for one group decided to just... attack... anyone supporting the other team, literally stripping the clothes off them in a lot of cases.

The Home Team should be suspended for a few months due to lack of security, and then another season or two because it was their fans who charged the other team's fans.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Looking at some of the stories on that Mexico soccer deal,looks like a lot of the people pictured on the pitch were actually fans trying to escape what was happening in the stands.

Maybe everybody else knew that already, it just wasn't what it appeared to me when I first saw the pic without any clarification.

There's also a pic that shows fans fighting across barbed wire that appears to be in place to separate different seating sections.

Imagine going to a professional sporting event in the U.S. where that precaution was considered necessary in advance.

I think it's gonna be hard to impossible to try to apply standards of U.S. sports to this situation. The existing bar for behavior simply starts out far lower than we can fully imagine.

[SirFozzie]

Not just mexico, but argentina, scotland, and columbia (there was a crush incident at the recent championship of Africa)

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Not just mexico, but argentina, scotland, and columbia (there was a crush incident at the recent championship of Africa)

Aside from being prompted by today's occurrence, I didn't mean for it to sound like I thought it was exclusive to Mexico but I can see where it might have come across that way.

(I've seen barbed wire & such, hell even military (para?) used as security in other countries IIRC)

[RainMaker]

Seeing how Mexican soccer fans have behaved for a long time, it's really not that surprising. One of those "only a matter of time" type events. Tragic, but considering they were talking of finishing the match tomorrow, seems like something they just don't take seriously at all.

It is still wild to view as an American. The Malice at the Palace is one of the low points in sports fandoms in this country, and I doubt it would even be a major story in some countries.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Looking at some of the stories on that Mexico soccer deal,looks like a lot of the people pictured on the pitch were actually fans trying to escape what was happening in the stands.

Maybe everybody else knew that already, it just wasn't what it appeared to me when I first saw the pic without any clarification.

There's also a pic that shows fans fighting across barbed wire that appears to be in place to separate different seating sections.

Imagine going to a professional sporting event in the U.S. where that precaution was considered necessary in advance.

I think it's gonna be hard to impossible to try to apply standards of U.S. sports to this situation. The existing bar for behavior simply starts out far lower than we can fully imagine.

Having been in stadiums where those types of precaution are in place, I know many of the supporters there would say that the existing bar for passion for their clubs is starts out much higher that we can fully imagine.

I am not justifying the actions on display last night in any way. I find that behavior disgusting.

[kingfc22]

This event was clearly spurred on by the lack of & complete inaction of any police presence. If we don’t think this would happen at an NFL game between fan groups who don’t like each other like the Raiders/Chiefs, Ravens/Steelers, Eagles/Cowboys, etc we are sorely over estimating ourselves.

Now I don’t think it would lead to something at this scale but if nobody is there to break up these large brawls that already happen at NFL games they could easily end up tragic as well.

[sovereignstar v2]

Too easy

Sent from my SM-S901U1 using Tapatalk

[HomerSimpson98]

Relegate these chumps. Sheesh

[JonInMiddleGA]

Okay, feel free to explain this quote from the offending side's coach during the Liga MX debacle like I"m completely stupid.

"The [attackers] said 'let's get them' and they wanted to enter the tunnel and I told them there will be a tragedy, I took them to the other side and I said 'yes, yes get them outside' as its used in education and persuasion," Cristante said.

He said what as it's used where?
WTF?

Have I missed something somewhere?

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Okay, feel free to explain this quote from the offending side's coach during the Liga MX debacle like I"m completely stupid.

The words "get them" are extremely ambiguous. Is this the actual quote, or was it translated from another language, resulting in this ambiguity? What's the context from wherein this quote was taken?

[SirFozzie]

I think what the context is that the fans wanted to rush the players and the other team's fans in the tunnel, (likely causing a huge crush) and it was more like "If you're going to do it, do it outside the stadium" to try to give the rush of adrenalin a chance to calm down. Not provoke, but redirect. (especially since police in the stadium weren't doing diddly squat

Cristante also explained that comments he made to Queretaro fans on the pitch weren't meant to incite them, clarifying that he was trying to disuade further violence. In a video, Cristante is seen telling fans on the field to "get them outside."

"The [attackers] said 'let's get them' and they wanted to enter the tunnel and I told them there will be a tragedy, I took them to the other side and I said 'yes, yes get them outside' as its used in education and persuasion," Cristante said.

[MIJB#19]

Concerning Russia and Ukraine in WC2022 qualifying: FIFA today announced that Poland will advance to the qualifiers finals (against the winner of Sweden vs Czechia) and the Scotland - Ukraine match, as consequently that qualifier final (against the Wales vs Austria winner), will be rescheduled to June.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Liga MX - Queretaro home fans banned for 1 year 'barras' get 3-year ban, owners must sell club

The loser in this seems like it might be the previous owner of the offending club, who has apparently been given the chore of trying to sell the franchise. Not sure how many people are going to be lining up to buy a club whose are allowed no fans at all inside for one year and without their most diehard supporters for three years.

[Ksyrup]

Looks like I picked the right moment to happen across a soccer game on CBS in the middle of the afternoon.

[bhlloy]

This collapse was depressingly predictable. Suicidal defending and all completely unnecessary.

[miami_fan]

Some cliff notes on how the Abramovich sanctions affect Chelsea.

No player transfers in, no contract renewals.

Only season ticket holders will allowed to attend games.

Sponsors can leave.

No merchandise sales.

They can only spend "reasonable costs" to stage matches at Stamford Bridge and to get to away matches.

Explained: How Chelsea are affected by Abramovich sanctions | Goal.com

[flere-imsaho]

PSG continues to prove out the hypothesis that it's hard to compete at the UCL level if the vast majority of your league games are complete pushovers. The inability to shut that game down after getting a big lead really underlines it.

Real Madrid & Barcelona at least have each other & Atletico, plus another team or two per year who can play tough. Munich has Dortmund plus, I dunno, they always seem to be able to assemble a complete team.

Maybe PSG should apply to join the EPL or something.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Some cliff notes on how the Abramovich sanctions affect Chelsea.

No player transfers in, no contract renewals.

Only season ticket holders will allowed to attend games.

Sponsors can leave.

No merchandise sales.

They can only spend "reasonable costs" to stage matches at Stamford Bridge and to get to away matches.

Explained: How Chelsea are affected by Abramovich sanctions | Goal.com

That's quite the decision there.
I wonder what will happen to other football clubs in the EU that are owned or heavily invested in by Russians, the UK is not EU, but it's an interesting example of what could be decided.

[flere-imsaho]

I kinda can't believe the Tories actually went ahead and did it. When I posted previously about Abramovich apparently trying to get rid of all his UK assets as quickly as possible, in a fire sale for much of his real estate, I felt he was over-reacting a bit. Turns out no!

[Ksyrup]

Telecommunications company Three has asked Chelsea to remove their branding from their shirts immediately, having now suspended their sponsorship deal with the club. There’s a kit man in Norwich now heading down to Sports Direct to buy 20 plain blue football tops.

— Matt Lawton (@Lawton_Times) March 10, 2022

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

That's quite the decision there.
I wonder what will happen to other football clubs in the EU that are owned or heavily invested in by Russians, the UK is not EU, but it's an interesting example of what could be decided.

I was curious.

A quick google says that Bournemouth (English Championship), AS Monaco (Ligue 1), Cercle Brugge (Belgian Pro League), and Vitesse Arnhem (Eredivisie) are all owned by oligarchs. There are no Russian owners in Spain, Germany, Italy and Portugal. I am not sure about major investors but Alisher Usmanov is a former part owner in Arsenal and is a major investor in Everton. There have been questions as to whether he is the real money behind Everton rather than Farhad Moshiri.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

I was curious.

A quick google says that Bournemouth (English Championship), AS Monaco (Ligue 1), Cercle Brugge (Belgian Pro League), and Vitesse Arnhem (Eredivisie) are all owned by oligarchs. There are no Russian owners in Spain, Germany, Italy and Portugal. I am not sure about major investors but Alisher Usmanov is a former part owner in Arsenal and is a major investor in Everton. There have been questions as to whether he is the real money behind Everton rather than Farhad Moshiri.

I was curious too, thanks for doing some digging.
I expected there to be a bit more, but as you mentioned, it's rarely clear cut whether some 'owner' brings his own oil money or is just a puppet to bring it in from another country.