COVID-19 - Wuhan Coronavirus (a non-political thread, see pg. 36 #1778)

[JPhillips]

A couple of reporters are now saying that the flights coming in of medical supplies are being broken down so that 50% goes to states and 50% goes to private companies. No word on whether the companies are paying for the supplies or the transit.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

A couple of reporters are now saying that the flights coming in of medical supplies are being broken down so that 50% goes to states and 50% goes to private companies. No word on whether the companies are paying for the supplies or the transit.

And the companies keep them for their own use ? Or sell them on ?

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It's getting really bad here. We have a town pretty close by that has a very large religious population, in the tens of thousands. To avoid sounding like I have a problem with the religion itself I will leave it out. They firmly believe the laws of their god overrides the laws of the state. Because of this they have been having large weddings, going to religious services, etc...to the point of where the police were regularly breaking up gatherings and it was rumored the state national guard was called in. Isiddiqui will know where I mean.

Was it one of the more "mainstream religions, like Oprahism or Voodoo"?

SI

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by whomario

Had to look it up, but damn ....

Wanted: People who know a half century-old computer language so states can process unemployment claims - CNN

Have to show this to my mate who is bitching about the 6,7 year old software at his insurance company ...

No joke, my 70-something year old dad turned down a lucrative offer this week to go program COBOL in Jersey.

SI

[sterlingice]

https://www.kansascity.com/news/poli...241861126.html
Kansas's GOP legislature overrules Democratic governor's order limiting church gatherings to 10 people ahead of Easter. I mean, are people that excited to die? I swear this is a disease that multiplies based on our stupidest impulses. Of course, it burdens all of us and kills indiscriminately.

SI

[sterlingice]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/busin...rus/index.html

Meat processing plants shutting down due to lack of workers. Maybe a blip in the supply chain, maybe more.

SI

[SirFozzie]

Not just lack of workers, but workers actively getting sick. Now I don't think there's much chance of COVID-19 surviving long enough to cause an issue with tainted meat, but... you know? I don't want to risk it.

[whomario]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/n...835d90fe5f427d

I know hindsight is 20/20, but some of the things that happened (or rather didn't) in the buildup still seem to strange to be true... So much would have been avoidable if more people in power (countries, states, organisations) would have just stopped and considered that maybe they are not as smart or well prepared as they think.

Germany includes, we just had dumb luck and a head start on the one area independent from political decision making (testing and tracing)

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by whomario

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/n...835d90fe5f427d

I know hindsight is 20/20, but some of the things that happened (or rather didn't) in the buildup still seem to strange to be true... So much would have been avoidable if more people in power (countries, states, organisations) would have just stopped and considered that maybe they are not as smart or well prepared as they think.

Germany includes, we just had dumb luck and a head start on the one area independent from political decision making (testing and tracing)

I'm sure it helps to have a scientist in charge rather than an anti-vaxxer.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by whomario

And the companies keep them for their own use ? Or sell them on ?

The companies then sell to the highest bidder. It explains why a couple of GOP lobbyists suddenly went into the medical supply business a couple of weeks ago.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I'm sure it helps to have a scientist in charge rather than an anti-vaxxer.

Definitely. Merkel has her flaws and all, but there is no denying she is a rational thinker and here she gave the Institute in charge free reign and took their advice seriously when it came to taking the steps on the political end. Even now the equivalent of your task force briefing on the developments of the epidemic is done by the Robert Koch Institute with no politician in sight.

Still she stepped up publicly as well (after seeming almost burned out previously and biding her time) and watching her speak vs Trump ...
Not that long ago her rivals were preparing to pretty much oust her from office, now most seem really glad they didn't.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The companies then sell to the highest bidder. It explains why a couple of GOP lobbyists suddenly went into the medical supply business a couple of weeks ago.

Sometimes i feel like visiting the moon when i dive into how things are done nowadays in the US

[RainMaker]

Federal Support Ends For Coronavirus Testing Sites As Pandemic Peak Nears : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR

[whomario]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Federal Support Ends For Coronavirus Testing Sites As Pandemic Peak Nears : Coronavirus Live Updates : NPR

Sounds like more of the "do it yourself" stance, only in prettier words...

"The transition will ensure each state has the flexibility and autonomy to manage and operate testing sites within the needs of their specific community and to prioritize resources where they are needed the most,"

Like they couldn't manage them themselves if they still got funding and support (like contact to labs) seems like that's two different things.

If nothing else these 'external' Testing sides are great to give people an option that are reluctant to go to hospitals because of a little cough that may or may not be related to the virus. I know that the hospitals here welcome the extra sites (in Dortmund there is now one in the big Stadium for example)

[JPhillips]

Two different teams in NY have independently determined the virus was circulating in NYC in mid to late February and was brought primarily by travelers from Europe.

The stuff they can do with contact and genetic tracing is amazing.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by whomario

Had to look it up, but damn ....

Wanted: People who know a half century-old computer language so states can process unemployment claims - CNN

Have to show this to my mate who is bitching about the 6,7 year old software at his insurance company ...

This could be a pitch for some geezer movie where they have to reprogram the space shuttle before it breaks apart/some other catastrophe

[Radii]

Originally Posted by whomario

Had to look it up, but damn ....

Wanted: People who know a half century-old computer language so states can process unemployment claims - CNN

Have to show this to my mate who is bitching about the 6,7 year old software at his insurance company ...

COBOL programmers made tons of money leading up to Y2k as well, i guess they get thrown a bone every 20 years?

As for outdated Insurance company software... I work for a healthcare technology company, frequently working to connect our company to insurance companies. Last year I was given documentation on how to connect to a specific Blue Cross Blue Shield insurer, and saw that it was documentation I had written myself, when I was part of a team that developed their method for processing electronic transactions... 21 years ago, in my first job out of college. There's rarely any incentive to upgrade anything. The slower things are, they longer they can avoid paying out claims.

[kimbulford]

Doctors say that COVID19 will become a seasonal disease.
And a pandemic will end only when more than 50% of the representatives of society will have immunity. Or through a disease or through vaccination.
Different countries will go to this in different ways. But the faster immunity is formed in most citizens, the earlier the economy will be restored.
The US goes this way, hoping to minimize losses. By autumn, the formation of the immune layer will be completed.
The country has a resource for this.
China will go the other way - they will start the industry now, but they will introduce total control of the incidence before the invention of the vaccine.
They have a resource for this.
Europe will be tormented slowly and for a long time. And the industry will not be launched, and the immune layer will form for a very long time.
https://besthdporn.me/

[AlexB]

Originally Posted by whomario

I think people dying at more than 3 times the usual rate in New York (and likely 5+ in Lombardy f.e ) while trying everything to prevent it is a decent clue how that turns out or at least would turned out if one wouldn't combat it agressively and would have allowed it to freely spread everywhere.
I can already imagine people looking at excess mortality for the year and going "hey, wasn't so bad", when the reason for "hey, wasn't so bad" will be the extreme measures taken. Which in turn will have a significant knock-on effect in future years.

Yes, people dying from Covid are older and have health issues. But that is not sth exclusive to this illness, that's the same profile as the average death in general in normal years present with. Most people over 70 have one or more underlying conditions but would still have 10 years to live (Statistically in Germany if you reach 80 you still on average have 9-10 years to live depending on Gender).
Only now there are way more of those in regions the virus was not stopped/controlled in time. In a way this is like the flu in that it kills the same 'demographic'. Only in regions it spreads wildly it kills 2-3 times more people in a day than the flu in a a bad year claims in a week. That is excess mortality right there.

Sorry if you did not mean it like that, touchy subject for me.

I meant it in the way that you also do - there is considerable excess death, and that is the best way of gauging the effect. I was replying to Rainmaker’s words rather than commenting on the article, as those dying at home will be in the overall death numbers, even if they are not in the CV numbers

For example, in England & Wales the average weekly death rate was a fairly steady c.10% less than average until three weeks ago based on the Office of National Statistics.

Two weeks ago week it was 10% more, and although the numbers aren’t released yet, extrapolating the CV numbers it looks like it will be 30% more (at least) last week.

Although not the 2-3 times you reference, 30% extra deaths is a lot, and it’s only going to get higher based on this weeks CV19 numbers

[miked]

Just so weird, my sister has had a fever for a few days and a bad cough with chest pains. Called the number and, despite living with an immune-compromised child (her husband's adopted son) and taking care of my 74 year old mother, was told she was too young for a test (37). They just opened a drive through test at GT (in my deck) but apparently still do not have enough tests. The lady did say she was lucky to live in Decatur with easy access to Emory in case she got worse though. :shrug:

[whomario]

Originally Posted by AlexB

I meant it in the way that you also do - there is considerable excess death, and that is the best way of gauging the effect. I was replying to Rainmaker’s words rather than commenting on the article, as those dying at home will be in the overall death numbers, even if they are not in the CV numbers

For example, in England & Wales the average weekly death rate was a fairly steady c.10% less than average until three weeks ago based on the Office of National Statistics.

Two weeks ago week it was 10% more, and although the numbers aren’t released yet, extrapolating the CV numbers it looks like it will be 30% more (at least) last week.

Although not the 2-3 times you reference, 30% extra deaths is a lot, and it’s only going to get higher based on this weeks CV19 numbers

Makes sense, thanks yeah, obviously the 3x, 5x are local phenomena because once you shut shit down it might be too late in some areas (like NY or Bergamo or Paris) but just in time or well early elsewhere because a virus does not magically spreads at warp Speed to everywhere thankfully.

[tarcone]

[Thomkal]

heh tarcone

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Lathum

It's getting really bad here. We have a town pretty close by that has a very large religious population, in the tens of thousands. To avoid sounding like I have a problem with the religion itself I will leave it out. They firmly believe the laws of their god overrides the laws of the state. Because of this they have been having large weddings, going to religious services, etc...to the point of where the police were regularly breaking up gatherings and it was rumored the state national guard was called in. Isiddiqui will know where I mean.

Is it Lakewood by any chance?

I am just glad my religious denomination has been almost universal in staying home. We indicated that we need to cancel Easter services 2 weeks ago. There are plenty of online worship tools for the Easter Triduum starting to come out today.

[Edward64]

Spam is great. Just don't eat it straight out of a can, have to fry it till its almost/crispy.

[Butter]

Spam, cut super thin and cooked very crispy is pretty good. Agreed.

[Arles]

I just read that US gasoline demand is down 48% from a year ago. From a historical standpoint, the last time we saw gasoline demand at this level (under 5.1 million barrels per day) was January of 1969.

[Brian Swartz]

I saw that one making the rounds tarcone. I have but one response:

Weird Al Yankovic- Spam - YouTube

[tarcone]

Our Governor just shut down all schools in Missouri for the rest of the year.

My senior daughter will not like this. Reality will really hit home now.

And I really like spam and eggs.

[henry296]

Originally Posted by Arles

I just read that US gasoline demand is down 48% from a year ago. From a historical standpoint, the last time we saw gasoline demand at this level (under 5.1 million barrels per day) was January of 1969.

On a related note some insurance companies, GEICO and Allstate that I know of , are giving refunds due to the lack of driving.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by henry296

On a related note some insurance companies, GEICO and Allstate that I know of , are giving refunds due to the lack of driving.

Although not quite a refund, I just got an email from Geico offering a 15% credit on my next renewal.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by henry296

On a related note some insurance companies, GEICO and Allstate that I know of , are giving refunds due to the lack of driving.

Progressive refunding 1 billion dollars worth of premiums.

[Brian Swartz]

In completely unsurprising news, Michigan extends stay-at-home through the end of the month. People are starting to get a little testy about the definitions of what is and is not an essential worker, and it's coming from both sides; those who are working and those who aren't. None of it is productive whining.

Originally Posted by Lathum

Progressive refunding 1 billion dollars worth of premiums.

Huh. I have Progressive and haven't heard diddly-squat.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Is it Lakewood by any chance?

Winner...

[tarcone]

I have Progressive as well. I will be calling them tomorrow.

My neighbors sister is over there every day. With her 2 kids. One was born about 2 months early, though she is like 18 months now.

And there is a new house being built in the new subdivision behind my house and work goes on.

Im not sure what our stay at home order means.

[tarcone]

[Arles]

Originally Posted by henry296

On a related note some insurance companies, GEICO and Allstate that I know of , are giving refunds due to the lack of driving.

My wife is an insurance broker and reminded me that any money refunded will eventually get added on as premium hikes. So, while people may get $50 now, their premiums may go up 100+ in 2021 to make up for that.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Huh. I have Progressive and haven't heard diddly-squat.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...grvnke5s0vn-1i

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by henry296

On a related note some insurance companies, GEICO and Allstate that I know of , are giving refunds due to the lack of driving.

We got an email from USAA stating they're crediting accounts 20% for the next 2 months.

[Brian Swartz]

Thanks Lathum - good to know. Just weird that I haven't heard anything from them yet, but it will help with some decisions I'm making as we go through this … whatever this is.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Thanks Lathum - good to know. Just weird that I haven't heard anything from them yet, but it will help with some decisions I'm making as we go through this … whatever this is.

I worked for them for several years and some former coworkers put it on facebook.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Take this FWIW.

Wife received a text message from BIL who talked to a FDA friend. Friend said that cases of coronavirus is rising among the food processors and truckers. Friend said there will likely be shortages of vegetables and meat in the coming weeks.

Wife went to Costco, said there is a 30 min line outside and Costco is limiting no. of people in the store. She is going to Target/Walmart instead to buy meats we can freeze, frozen vegetables and top off the fresh vegetables.

Heard from a friend who heard from a friend and some stuff could be lost in translation.

From last week and now ...

Coronavirus Latest: Major Meat Processors Shutting Down Plants As Employees Get Sick With COVID-19 – CBS Philly

SOUDERTON, Pa. (CNN) — Across the country, major meat processors are starting to shut down plants as employees are getting infected by coronavirus. Tyson, one of the world’s largest meat processors, suspended operations at its Columbus Junction, Iowa, pork plant this week after more than two dozen workers contracted Covid-19 there.

Tyson said it would divert livestock that was headed to Columbus Junction to other pork plants in the region to minimize the impact on its production.

JBS USA, another major meat processor, has stopped operations at its beef plant in Souderton, Pennsylvania with plans to reopen April 16, after two weeks. The company decided to close the facility after several members of the plant’s management team stopped going to work because they were experiencing flu-like symptoms, a company representative explained, adding that all other JBS USA’s plants are still open. Cargill has also paused operations at its protein plant in Hazleton, Pennsylvania, where 900 people typically work.

It continues to say consumers are unlikely to see any shortages. I don't get this because I've been seeing shortages for the past 4-5 weeks already.

There may not be shortages from source/supply but there shortages at the grocery stores.

Consumers are unlikely to see any shortages because of production disturbances. But the closures are devastating for some meat producers, which have remained open during the pandemic. Food suppliers are essential businesses.

The United States has a large enough meat inventory to prevent shortages for consumers, explained Christine McCracken, senior analyst of animal protein for Rabobank. Processors that were previously servicing restaurants or cafes have started to sell to retailers. And some restaurants are selling groceries, including meat, directly to customers.

[Lathum]

The shortages are most assuredly from hoarding. I would think any shortages would be offset by the huge number of restaurants not ordering.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Lathum

The shortages are most assuredly from hoarding. I would think any shortages would be offset by the huge number of restaurants not ordering.

I gave to think that part of it based on consumer patterns.

We're not going to restaurants so we're doing more cooking at home etc...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I gave to think that part of it based on consumer patterns.

We're not going to restaurants so we're doing more cooking at home etc...

True, but I know when I cook at home the portion sizes are much smaller than at a restaurant.

I dunno. Just a thought.

[lungs]

I follow some beef industry people on Twitter. There is a lot of beef needing a home because of restaurant order cancellations. Same with all the milk dumping. Farms in my neighborhood are dumping. Cheese and butter is being made and it’s all going to warehouses. But the warehouses are filled up. I heard a story of a smaller beef packer that killed 1500 animals right before restaurants shut down and it’s all sitting there waiting to find a home.

Hoarding is affecting what you see at the store but definitely no actual shortages from what I’m seeing.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

There may not be shortages from source/supply but there shortages at the grocery stores.

I think you hit the nail on the head right here. Anecdotally, it's steadily getting better where I am in terms of what's available - eggs, bread etc. that were regularly out are now easy to find. Chicken was at one point gone an hour after opening; I got some in mid-afternoon a few days ago.

But more to the point, there are going to be variances in whether stores have enough people to stock things up - it can be full at the start of the day and gone by noon or whatever, but that doesn't mean they didn't have any. Additionally, getting all the supply chain stuff sorted with the different amounts that now need to go places - less to restaurants, more to grocery stores, adjusting layouts in the stores to have more shelving/whatever for more popular items, all of that.

So as you say, shortages in store may happen, but I don't think shortages in the supply chain will and the latter's a lot more vital.

[RainMaker]

I think like the toilet paper, there is a supply chain for businesses (restaurants) and grocery stores. So there isn't technically a shortage of the product, just an issue with how to shift that supply chain that was delivering to restaurants to shift to grocery stores.

I did notice my local grocery store now sells the cheap toilet paper you'd find at a business. Largely unbranded.

[whomario]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think like the toilet paper, there is a supply chain for businesses (restaurants) and grocery stores. So there isn't technically a shortage of the product, just an issue with how to shift that supply chain that was delivering to restaurants to shift to grocery stores.

I did notice my local grocery store now sells the cheap toilet paper you'd find at a business. Largely unbranded.

In Germany some executive people claimed that the market is back to normal since store sales for products like hand sanitizer and Toilet Paper are way down so obviously demand must be lower. The reason they are down: You can't bloody find those products in many stores have not seen either in 3 weeks across 3 shops, hardly anyone i know has.

[bob]

Should I be preparing the family for summer plans being cancelled? I am having a lot of trouble finding information on what's the best guess timeline here.