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Old 10-13-2011, 09:18 AM   #3451
Autumn
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Well, the wolf didn't help me out, really. Frankly, now, I'm down to Mckerney and Commo. Mckerney would be the ideal convert night 2, and looking back at the votes, since then he has some very dubious votes. Important, key switches. I'll have to look those up. Otherwise he has played rather UTR, which in this game would be smart given how we've done as a village. We've either been killing ourselves, or had a wolf nailed to a tree, good game for a lone wolf to be quiet.

Commo on the other hand would be a convert most likely because the wolves could figure he'd be given a "newer guy" leash. After losing a wolf so early they might have wanted that. He's on my radar though for his posts. Nobody has pushed harder to save wolves through their posts, and he just continuously strikes me as off. Even his posts above at night just say wolf to me. I will hopefully find some time to look back through his posts to see what pinged me at the time.

Dubb would be the next level down to me, he's been really pushing for what ended up being some bad choices during the game. It's hard to imagine the wolves converting him though based on his D1 vote, so I consider him a lot less likely.

Lastly J23. His posts have struck me as most villagerish out of all of you. I am unsure why he never got attention again, or a scan, after being in a d1 runoff. I know i pushed voting him again later, but eventually cooled off, admittedly partly because he passed me an item and made some posts that had a good vibe. But his voting doesn't, off hand, look particularly impressive, and he was willing to jump off of EF onto Mauboy the other night, which we now know would have been a happy wolf occasion.
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:25 AM   #3452
The Jackal
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: New Hampshire
Sonofa. Go village!
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:27 AM   #3453
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Looking at D1, our last wolf was likely a villager. So the question is just who would make a promising convert based on these events. Here's the last pages of voting with a wolf NTN on the block.

commo unvotes bhlloy 318 (4)
mckerney unvotes bhlloy 329 (3)
mckerney votes mauboy 329 (5)
commo votes ntn 334 (5)
J23 unvotes bhlloy 352 (2)
J23 votes mauboy 354 (6)
bhlloy unvotes mauboy 357 (5)
bhlloy votes ntn 357 (6)
mauboy unvotes dubb 361
mauboy votes ntn 361 (7)
j23 unvotes mauboy 364 (4)
j23 votes ntn 364 (8)
dzilla unvotes ntn 377 (7)
dubb unvotes bhlloy 386 (1)
RA votes ntn 390 (7)
CF unvotes J23 393
CF votes ntn 393 (8)
dubb votes J23 400
autumn unvotes J23
autumn votes ntn (9)


J23's vote is self defense, so that's neither here nor there. If the conversion happened night one though, the wolves would have to be worried that the village would come right back to him the next day, so he's an unlikely conversion then. Dubb's vote of course looks awful, moving to possibly save a wolf, so he's also an unlikely N1 conversion. Mine theoretically should look good, but came at the very last of a mostly decided vote, so I was getting more flak than praise for it. I'm not sure of the exact count back when commo counted, but his vote would look decent. Mckerney's vote doesn't look great, so he's not a particularly likely N1 convert either.

All this basically suggests to me that Narc was probably the N1 convert. If one of us was, Commo or J23 seem the only possibilities, unless the wolves were being ballsy or dumb.
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:34 AM   #3454
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Day two we now know there were no wolves really on the line. But this was the day of reveals. Saldana was the lynch wth Lathum coming in second, but Lathum revealed to get out of the lynch, so nobody was going to really be worrying that Saldana voters were saving Lathum.

Mckerney of course reveals as Martyr here. To me this makes him the prime convert possibility N2. i will have to look back through the day's posts to see if there's anything in the posts for or against converting any of us. I don't remember what the general sentiment was going into the next day, who was going to be targeted and why. D3 we had the Thomkal/zinto runoff. I don't remember how we came up with those two.
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:36 AM   #3455
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Quote:
Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
Day 3

CF votes MrBug 1209
Thomkal votes Mauboy 1239
EF votes Thomkal 1241
jackal votes MrBug 1244
Thomkal unvotes Mauboy 1255
autumn votes J23 1264
SnDvls votes EF 1266
Narc votes EF 1271
Danny votes Zinto 1305
commo votes Zinto 1322
SnDvls unvotes EF 1325
Hoops votes Zinto 1345
J23 votes MrBug 1347
SnDvls votes Zinto 1351
Zinto votes EF 1372
dubb votes Zinto 1375
Grammaticus votes Zinto 1380
Thomkal votes MrBug 1383
Danny unvotes Zinto 1387
Danny votes Thomkal 1387
CF unvotes MrBug 1389
CF votes Thomkal
jackal unvotes MrBug 1398
jackal votes Thomkal 1398
j23 unvotes MrBug 1401
j23 votes Zinto 1401
MrBug votes Thomkal 1402
Zinto unvotes EF 1405
Zinto votes Thomkal 1405
Mauboy votes Thomkal 1407
Danny unvotes Thomkal 1417
Danny votes Zinto 1417
Dzilla votes Thomkal 1431
mckerney votes Thomkal 1438
Danny unvotes Zinto 1442
Danny votes j23 1442
Crimson Fox unvotes Thomkal 1445
CF votes j23 1445
Thomkal unvotes MrBug 1468
Thomkal votes Zinto 1468
Danny unvotes J23 1472
Danny votes Zinto 1472
autumn unvotes J23 1478
autumn votes Zinto 1478
CF unvotes J23 1484
CF votes Thomkal 1484
RA votes Thomkal 1494
Chief votes Thomkal 1523
CF unvotes Thomkal 1526
CF votes Zinto 1526
jackal unvotes Thomkal 1533
jackal votes Zinto 1533

Thomkal - EF, MrBug, Zinto, Mauboy, Dzilla, mckerney, RA, Chief
EF - Narcizo
Zinto - commo, Hoops, SnDvls, dubb, Grammaticus, J23, Thomkal, Danny, autumn, CF, jackal

Reposting this so I can look at it. This might be the first day the convert is voting wolf.
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:48 AM   #3456
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
All right, this is more useful to me.

CF votes Mrbug 1209 (1)
Thomkal votes mauboy 1239 (1)
EF votes thomkal 1241 (1)
jackal votes mrbug 1244 (2)
thomkal unvotes mauboy 1255 (0)
autumn votes J23 1264 (1)
sndvls votes EF 1266 (1)
narc votes EF 1271 (2)
danny votes zinto 1305 (1)
commo votes zinto 1322 (2)
sndvls unvotes EF 1325 (1)
hoops votes zinto 1345 (3)
J23 votes mrbug 1347 (3)
Sndvls votes zinto 1351 (4)
zinto votes eaglefan 1372 (2)
dubb votes zinto 1375 (5)
grammaticus votes zinto 1380 (6)
thomkal votes mrbug 1383 (4)
danny unvotes zinto 1387 (5)
danny votes thomkal 1387 (2)
cF unvotes mrbug 1389 (3)
cf votes thomkal (3)
jackal unvotes mrbug 1398 (2)
jackal votes thomkal 1398 (4)
j23 unvotes mrbug 1401 (1)
j23 votes zinto 1401 (6)
mrbug votes thomkal 1402 (5)
zinto unvotes eaglefan 1405 (1)
zinto votes thomkal 1405 (6)
mauboy votes thomkal 1407 (7)
danny unvotes thomkal 1417 (6)
danny votes zinto 1417 (7)
dzilla votes thomkal 1431 (7)
mckerney votes thomkal 1438 (8)
danny unvotes zinto 1442 (6)
danny votes j23 1442 (2)
crimson fox unvotes thomkal 1445 (7)
cf votes j23 1445 (3)
thomkal unvotes mrbug 1468 (0)
thomkal votes zinto 1468 (7)
danny unvotes J23 1472 (2)
danny votes zinto 1472 (8)
autumn unvotes J23 1478 (1)
autumn votes zinto 1478 (9)
CF unvotes J23 1484 (0)
CF votes thomkal 1484 (8)
RA votes thomkal 1494 (9)
chief votes thomkal 1523 (10)
CF unvotes thomkal 1526 (9)
CF votes zinto 1526 (10)
jackal unvotes thomkal 1533 (8)
jackal votes zinto 1533 (11)

I'll defend myself briefly by pointing out that I had an outlier vote on J23 at a point where I could have easily gone Thomkal and buried a vote there. I frankly still don't remember why we were voting Zinto that day, so I'm not going to suggest I made a heroic move, but if I was a wolf I had every chance to help Zinto out and didn't.

Mckerney's vote comes when it's tied 7-7 and he votes Thomkal. The only reason he didn't get flack for that was because he was revealed, and well because there were other more dramatic votes later by vilalgers, it turns out.

J23 puts Zinto up by 2, I think, which is a pretty villagerish vote.

Dubb also puts Zinto well ahead early in the day.

Commo puts the second vote on Zinto in the morning and then leaves it there. Not as good as J23 and Dubb, he might have simply been gone and felt he was stuck there. But not a bad vote.
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Old 10-13-2011, 09:55 AM   #3457
Autumn
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Quote:
Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
Day Four

#1678 Commo votes Bug (1)
#1701 Dzilla votes Bug (2)
#1708 Thomkal votes Raiders (1)
#1718 Narcizo votes Chief Rum (1)
#1725 Autumn votes Raiders (2)
#1756 Gramm voes Bug (3)
#1758 Eagle votes Bug (4)
#1760 Jackal votes Raiders (3)
#1769 Dubb votes Crimson (1)
#1784 Hoops votes Eagle (1)
#1791 Crimson votes Bug (5)
#1813 Bug Reveal
#1819 Gramm unvotes Bug (4)
#1819 Gramm votes Eagle (2)
#1820 Crimson unvotes Bug (3)
#1826 Commo unvotes Bug (2)
#1829 Narcizo unvotes Chief (0)
#1829 Narcizo votes Eagle (3)
#1837 J23 votes Eagle (4)
#1845 SnDvls votes Eagle (5)
#1865 commo votes Crimson (2)
#1867 Dzilla unvotes Bug (1)
#1867 Raiders votes Eagle (6)
#1887 Dzilla votes Chief (1)
#1889 Dzilla unvotes Chief (0)
#1889 Dzilla votes Raiders (4)
#1891 Crimson votes Raiders (5)
#1906 Commo unvotes Crimson (1)
#1945 Chief votes Raiders (6)
#1947 mckerney votes Raiders (7)
#1954 Bug votes Chief (1)
#1963 Mau votes Raiders (8)
#1967 Commo votes Chief (2)
#1980 Dubb votes Crimson (0)
#1980 Dubb votes Chief (3)
#1984 Hoops unvotes Eagle (5)
#1984 Hoops votes Chief (4)
#1997 Bug unvotes Chief (3)
#1997 Bug votes Raiders (9)


Raiders Army (9) - Thomkal (1708), Autumn (1725), Jackal (1756), Dzilla (1889), Crimson (1891), Chief Rum (1945), Mckerney (1947), Mauboy (1963), Bug (1997)
EF (5) - Gramma (1819), Narcizo (1829), J23 (1837), SnDvls (1845), Raiders (1867)
Chief Rum (3) - Commo (1967), Dubbs (1980), Hoops (1984)

Day four. Here we've got a wolf on the line again. What did our convert do this day?

It is 6-6 EagleFan and RA when Mckerney votes. Once again he breaks the tie in favor of the wolf, voting RaidersArmy. Two days, two broken ties in favor of the wolf.

It is 8-6 RA/EF and Commo votes Chief. Dubb follows right after putting a third vote on Chief. I don't remember why Chief was suddenly getting a look at this point in the day, I'll have to go look. These votes don't look as bad as Mckerney's, but they could certainly be seen as trying to stay out of that fray with RA seeming likely to win over EF. I don't remember the context though. It would be interesting to see who was leading the charge for a 3rd candidate.

J23 puts the 4th vote on EF, at that point I think putting him in the lead. Again, a ballsy vote if he's a wolf.

I had an early vote on RA, his second vote, before EF was in the race. Oh right, we were voting between RA/Chief and EF as Thomkal voters who weren't cleared, I believe. I chose RA becuase he and Chief each had a vote, and then I stayed there because I didn't have a feeling of which out of those three was bad.
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:07 AM   #3458
J23
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Join Date: Jul 2009
I think day4 is especially interesting since Narc was likely converted by that point and his vote could have counted triple to lynch EF at that point. It was a lot closer than it appears.
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:08 AM   #3459
Autumn
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Quote:
Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
Day 5

commo votes Chief 2153
commo unvotes Chief 2157
Thomkal votes EF 2187
jackal votes EF 2196
EF votes MrBug 2211
autumn votes Chief 2213
MrBug votes Narcizo 2224
autumn unvotes Chief 2237
autumn votes Narcizo 2237
jackal unvotes EF 2244
jackal votes Narcizo 2244
J23 votes Narcizo 2257
SnDvls votes EF 2285
commo votes Narc 2290
Grammaticus votes Narc 2294
commo unvotes Narc 2344
commo votes MrBug 2354
Narcizo votes MrBug 2368
jackal unvotes Narc 2375
jackal vote EF 2375
mckerney unvotes Narcizo 2387
mckerney votes EF 2387
Thomkal unvotes EF 2415
Thomkal votes MrBug 2415
Hoops guy votes MrBug 2423
autumn unvotes Narcizo 2441
autumn votes MrBug 2442
J23 unvotes Narcizo 2444
J23 votes MrBug 2444
SnDvls unvotes EF 2445
SnDvls votes MrBug 2445
Mauboy votes MrBug 2456
jackal unvotes EF 2457
jackal votes MrBug 2457
SnDvls unvotes MrBug 2489
SnDvls votes EF 2499
autumn unvotes MrBug 2507
autumn votes EF 2507
jackal unvotes MrBug 2511
jackal votes EF 2511
Mauboy unvotes MrBug 2512
Mauboy votes EF 2512
cheif votes EF 2526
dubb votes MrBug 2536
autumnunvotes EF 2600
autumn votes MrBug 2600
Mauboy unvotes EF 2601
Mauboy votes Bug 2601

4 EF - mckerney, SnDvls, jackal, Chief
9 MrBug - EF, commo, Narcizo, Thomkal, Hoops, J23, dubb, autumn, Mauboy
2 Narcizo - MrBug, Grammaticus

Day Five. What comes to mind most strongly here is not hte voting but the in-thread arguments about the reveals. Certainly Commo and Dubb came out poorly there, arguing strongly against believing MrBug. That strikes me as rather forthright for a wolf, but also possibly an act of desperation since it seems two of the last three wolves were on the line to get axed. Leaving the seer with the very last wolf would have been bad.

I don't remember what arguments J23 and Mckerney made in thread, that will take some reading. My vote log must be missing something, but it looks like Mckerney voted Narc early and then switched to EF. A point maybe in his favor since it seems the wolves wnated to save EF over Narc later. J23 votes Narc after Bug's reveal and then switches to Bug himself presumably after Narc's counterreveal. I pushed for EF mosst of the day on the back of Sndvl's reveal, but switched to Bug at the end to avoid any shenanigans. Dubb was a key and vocal voter on Bug. Commo was the ssecond voter on Bug after EF.

Whereas previous days I think Mckerney comes off the worst, here I think Commo looks the worst, trying to push the Bug play early and vocally. It's a rather out front move, but one I can seem from a new player, and/or from a wolf who's just about to lose the game it seems.
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:08 AM   #3460
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Quote:
Originally Posted by J23 View Post
I think day4 is especially interesting since Narc was likely converted by that point and his vote could have counted triple to lynch EF at that point. It was a lot closer than it appears.

Oh that's a good point. I wonder how it would look adding those votes into the vote count.
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:11 AM   #3461
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
That would mean mckerney was only tying it up with this vote. It makes Commo and Dubb seem better, perhaps, since voting elsewhere was leaving it really up to fate. Makes you look good of course J23 - knowing the vote might be swayed that much, another wolf wouldn't want to be on EF when a big swing happened. Although I guess maybe you would - if a wolf got killed by an unknown mechanism you could claim credit and gain trust.

Did Narc's description say if he could turn that vote on and off? That's a crazy day if not.
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:13 AM   #3462
J23
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
I don't remember what arguments J23 and Mckerney made in thread, that will take some reading.

My vote went to bug because of all the odd things he kept mentioning. When he finally said, oops, it was 0 votes on night 1 and 2 votes on night 2, it was enough for me to switch over.

Once again, the triple vote from Narc comes into play here so Bug was waaaaay dead. I'm wondering if this is a place a wolf could have left a vote buried pretty easily.
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:14 AM   #3463
J23
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by J23 View Post
My vote went to bug because of all the odd things he kept mentioning. When he finally said, oops, it was 0 votes on night 1 and 2 votes on night 2, it was enough for me to switch over.

Once again, the triple vote from Narc comes into play here so Bug was waaaaay dead. I'm wondering if this is a place a wolf could have left a vote buried pretty easily.

The oops part was about scans, not "votes".
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:15 AM   #3464
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
I've got to get some work done. Day 6 should be interesting in terms of the tie and the fact that they knew they had Narc's vote in their backpocket. They knew they could keep EF alive probably, unless there was a runaway on him. I'll look at that and the later days later.
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:31 AM   #3465
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Now with vote counts for Day 5.

The triple vote means that Mckerney switching from Narc to EF, tying them at 4, may have just been evening out the second tier. It also means that both Dubb and I could have left our votes elsewhere and still gotten Bug. So no real need to stick our necks out by putting late votes on him. J23's vote is more in the middle, but also unnecessary if he's a wolf and there's a triple vote.

Knowing Bug's going to come up clean, if the vote is a secret runaway, better for a wolf to stay somewhere else and be able to say they didn't kill the seer.

commo votes chief 2153
commo unvotes chief 2157
thomkal votes EF 2187 (1)
jackal votes EF 2196 (2)
EF votes mrbug 2211 (1)
autumn votes chief 2213
mrbug votes narcizo 2224 (1)
autumn unvotes chief 2237
autumn votes narcizo 2237 (2)
jackal unvotes EF 2244 (1)
jackal votes narcizo 2244 (3)
J23 votes narcizo 2257 (4)
sndvls votes ef 2285 (2)
commo votes narc 2290 (5)
grammaticus votes narc 2294 (6)
commo unvotes narc 2344 (4)
commo votes mrbug 2354 (2)
narcizo votes mrbug 2368 (3)
jackal unvotes narc 2375 (5)
jackal vote EF 2375 (3)
mckerney unvotes narcizo 2387 (4)
mckerney votes EF 2387 (4)
thomkal unvotes EF 2415 (3)
thomkal votes mrbug 2415 (4)
hoopsguy votes mrbug 2423 (5)
autumn unvotes narcizo 2441 (3)
autumn votes mrbug 2442 (6)
J23 unvotes narcizo 2444 (2)
J23 votes mrbug 2444 (7)
sndvls unvotes EF 2445 (2)
sndvls votes mrbug 2445 (9)
mauboy votes mrbug 2456 (8)
jackal unvotes EF 2457 (1)
jackal votes mrbug 2457 (10)
sndvls unvotes mrbug 2489 (9)
sndvls votes eaglefan 2499 (2)
autumn unvotes mrbug 2507 (8)
autumn votes eaglefan 2507 (3)
jackal unvotes mrbug 2511 (7)
jackal votes EF 2511 (4)
mauboy unvotes mrbug 2512 (6)
mauboy votes EF 2512 (5)
cheif votes EF 2526 (6)
dubb votes MrBug 2536 (7)
autumn unvotes eaglefan 2600 (5)
autumn votes mrbug 2600 (8)
mauboy unvotes EF 2601 (4)
mauboy votes bug 2601 (9)
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:34 AM   #3466
mckerney
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Join Date: Oct 2000
For my arguments on day 5 my main one towards the end was that I really didn't like EF's reveal, nothing in the rules indicated he'd be able to see a conversion in his claimed role. I was wrong in that I said Bug was bad near the end, but I think I made the right call in pushing for us not to lynch him because if he were good he'd be night killed (of course at the time that was because he'd said Narc was bad and Narc claimed bodyguard and was uncontested).
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:34 AM   #3467
J23
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by mckerney View Post
Is this not raising any eyebrows on EF? He basically waited after his reveal until we came up with a role he could be, and now we have someone else claiming the same role.

This post from back in the EF/Narc/Bug mess makes me think mckerney might not have been converted at that point.
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Old 10-13-2011, 10:44 AM   #3468
Autumn
Head Coach
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Quote:
Originally Posted by J23 View Post
This post from back in the EF/Narc/Bug mess makes me think mckerney might not have been converted at that point.

Or he wants to be the first poking holes at EF, knowing they've got Bug nailed. I'll have to go back and read through that day. Mckerney's striking me as the strongest suspect, but I've got to make sure I'm not therefore reading everything with that bias.

It would be nice if this wasn't one of the highest post counts in WW history, it'd be easier to read back!
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:04 AM   #3469
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
Also, that list I was going by yesterday, of people who voted elsewhere than NTN after Bhlloy's reveal, is growing shorter:

CF, Lathum, Mckerney, J23

CF's not getting a pass from me, but combine the two and I think I'm going after J23 for now.

Reading back through as I work. This one jumped out at me. J23 gave me grief at the time for this method of finding suspects, but I notice now that Mckerney's right in it, but I was ignoring him because of his reveal. ;-)

And I'm actually glad they killed Jackal. Reading back his posts are jumping out at me and I probably would have been looking hard at him today.
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:10 AM   #3470
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Quote:
Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
Ugh, I really hate posting from phones, after losing a longer post this is going to be short. Looking forward to a for day weekend starting friday though. Long story short, after looking at voting history danny posted

vote zinto

Will not be on a computer until after deadline due to an NBDA meeting, but will be checking phone.

So yes, Commo was out during that day. May have thought he was safe getting a trust-building vote on a wolf for down the line, without adding to the argument to lynch Zinto. Or maybe it was a good vote -- don't ya love Werewolf!
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:13 AM   #3471
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrimsonFox View Post
MrBug 3 - CrimsonFox (1209) Jackal (1244) J23 (1347)
Thomkal 1 - EagleFan (1241)
J23 1 - Autumn (1264)
EagleFan 2 - Narcizo (1271) Zinto (1372)
Zinto 4 - Danny (1305) Commo_Soldier (1322) hoopsguy (1345) SnDvls (1351)

This is a pretty crazy spot. The post before it Zinto votes EF, shying away from a runoff with him and Bug. If Narc had a triple vote here that was an insane play.
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:16 AM   #3472
J23
College Benchwarmer
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
It's possible not all the wolves could communicate too.
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:20 AM   #3473
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Quote:
Originally Posted by Autumn View Post
And looking at the rest of the night, from when Danny switched back off of Thomkal ...

danny votes zinto 1417
dzilla votes thomkal 1431
mckerney votes thomkal 1438
danny unvotes zinto 1442
danny votes j23 1442
crimson fox unvotes thomkal 1445
cf votes j23 1445
thomkal unvotes mrbug 1468
thomkal votes zinto 1468
danny unvotes J23 1472
danny votes zinto 1472
autumn unvotes J23 1478
autumn votes zinto 1478
CF unvotes J23 1484
CF votes thomkal 1484
RA votes thomkal 1494
chief votes thomkal 1523
CF unvotes thomkal 1526
CF votes zinto 1526
jackal unvotes thomkal 1533
jackal votes zinto 1533

Dzilla and Mckerney continue the pile onto Thomkal. I thought that CF had said he would be voting Zinto, like Danny and I, but then he goes to Thomkal instead. RA and Chief look bad there as well. Pretty big list of suspects, unfortunately, just looking at the votes, probably some post analysis would be good.

This was my post after Zinto's death. Noting that Mckerney is the last suspect left there. I find it hard to believe the wolves made no effort to save Zinto.

Also if I start reposting my posts I can double my post count!
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:24 AM   #3474
Autumn
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
Quote:
Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier View Post
Dola, also not getting great feelings about Narc, granted he is away during lots of this, but three throwaway votes, including one on a known roled villager and another on a possibly roled villager. Not to mention his suggesting I not look much into yesterdays voting, which seemed very odd and led me to believe Zinto was not on the up and up.

I've got to quote this in Commo's defense.
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:51 AM   #3475
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Day Five. What comes to mind most strongly here is not hte voting but the in-thread arguments about the reveals. Certainly Commo and Dubb came out poorly there, arguing strongly against believing MrBug. That strikes me as rather forthright for a wolf, but also possibly an act of desperation since it seems two of the last three wolves were on the line to get axed. Leaving the seer with the very last wolf would have been bad.

I don't remember what arguments J23 and Mckerney made in thread, that will take some reading. My vote log must be missing something, but it looks like Mckerney voted Narc early and then switched to EF. A point maybe in his favor since it seems the wolves wnated to save EF over Narc later. J23 votes Narc after Bug's reveal and then switches to Bug himself presumably after Narc's counterreveal. I pushed for EF mosst of the day on the back of Sndvl's reveal, but switched to Bug at the end to avoid any shenanigans. Dubb was a key and vocal voter on Bug. Commo was the ssecond voter on Bug after EF.

Whereas previous days I think Mckerney comes off the worst, here I think Commo looks the worst, trying to push the Bug play early and vocally. It's a rather out front move, but one I can seem from a new player, and/or from a wolf who's just about to lose the game it seems.

Leaving for work and my phone, but first I'll respond to two things.

I will be the first to admit I pushed bug hard, part of that was continuing where Danny would have voted and part I just had bad feelings about him. I feel my feelings were legitimate towards him, but as I stated later I never planned on lynching him for the feelings I had unless there was more to it. That more came when the person he fingered said he was the sheriff and no one else claimed this role. Not to mention EF said he was a detective and saw him being converted. Which may or may not be possible, no one was arguing that at the time the first I saw it argued is today when McKerney is the prime suspect. Finally the person I really thought was the detective since day one or two, sndvls said at first he believed the role reveal. While Sndvls did come and say he didn't buy it later, it was skeptical because he said the part about seeing nothing suspicious was too much detail, but never would allude to why it was too much detail, even when myself and others asked what was too much about it. If our BG would have said he is lying, or Sndvls had come out and given us more info I in all likely hood would have lead the voting off of him and pushed for a tie between Narc and EF. Instead SN never told us more and our BG didn't reveal until two days later. At the time Bug gave us more info than the others as he was the only person that was the common link between the three.
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:53 AM   #3476
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The more I think about things I'm curious, why do we really believe Bugs reveal?

Day one - Jackal - I think he just said this because Jackal has been on his side and told him he should reveal now if he is the seer.

Day two - Danny - I can't see why Danny would have needed to be scanned by the seer, that is more of an exorcist thing as I don't think anyone believed he was an original wolf.

Day three - Mau - Nothing has screamed wolf to me and if converted more of an exorcist thing.

My big thing though is I think it was just a save his ass type of move, Jackal gave him the out and he took it. I'm seriously considering moving back onto him.

Unvote CF

This just got me thinking that now we finally know the wolves did not have the sheriff in their pocket, they just got lucky with his blocks and their kills. Which means when Bug revealed they knew they had no way of killing him until the sheriff revealed. That makes me think worse of Commo who started doubting Bug very early. It also explains why EF came out right away trying to make Bug sound bad, and Narc combined it with a sheriff fake reveal.
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:55 AM   #3477
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Not to mention EF said he was a detective and saw him being converted. Which may or may not be possible, no one was arguing that at the time the first I saw it argued is today when McKerney is the prime suspect. Finally the person I really thought was the detective since day one or two, sndvls said at first he believed the role reveal.

I'm curious about two things above. What made you think Sndvls was the detective? And secondly what do you mean by the bolded part. I'm not sure I understand it.
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:57 AM   #3478
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By the way, the reason I'm digging back is I know every time I watch one of these last few people showdowns from outside, I"m always wanting to scream at the villager to look back in the thread. People are always just looking at the last day or so and forgetting damning posts from the past. So I'm trying to avoid that mistake. I would like us for once to nail a lone wolf at the end.
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Old 10-13-2011, 11:58 AM   #3479
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So yes, Commo was out during that day. May have thought he was safe getting a trust-building vote on a wolf for down the line, without adding to the argument to lynch Zinto. Or maybe it was a good vote -- don't ya love Werewolf!

I just stated I wouldn't be back because normally I'm home and can post more towards deadline, but Wednesdays I have NBDA. As for my phone, all of my posts from 9am PST to 5pm PST time during the week are on my phone, and I do make posts if needed, just prefer not to. I do recall I looked at the board two or three times within 30 minutes to deadline to see if I needed to change, but I felt fairly comfortable where it was as I believe I stated earlier in the day why I thought Zinto should be the choice.

As for Narc, I really think his conversion happened night 4, I would be surprised otherwise. If you're a wolf and have three votes, which from the description, I got that was automatic. That is too dangerous to put on an original wolf when you can't move off and he is already kind of suspect on some peoples lists.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:01 PM   #3480
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After being prepared to vote MrBug today I don't really have any strong feelings here towards either candidate. Only thing I can come up with is maybe the wolves went with a conversion of an under the radar ntn voter from day one.

Vote Raiders Army

And here's Mckerney's vote pushing RA ahead of a wolf. I don't think I quoted his vote the day before but it also had this same sort of very passive argument for the person. Because he knew they were a villager?
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:03 PM   #3481
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I'm curious about two things above. What made you think Sndvls was the detective? And secondly what do you mean by the bolded part. I'm not sure I understand it.

The bolded was kind of a rebuttal to McKerney who said he didn't buy the reveal because it was not in his description of something he could see. I was more or less saying that was never mentioned by anyone until now and that is not something I didn't think the rules were clear on so he could or could not have seen a conversion.

As for Sndvls, I don't have time now, will go back tonight if I need to, but on day one or two near day deadline he made a comment does anyone have a suggestion the exorcist, or some other similar role, and later came back to say detective should watch. I thought that was a subtle way of stating he was the detective without openly saying it.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:03 PM   #3482
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As for Narc, I really think his conversion happened night 4, I would be surprised otherwise. If you're a wolf and have three votes, which from the description, I got that was automatic. That is too dangerous to put on an original wolf when you can't move off and he is already kind of suspect on some peoples lists.

But that's impossible, unless the convert who's left could also convert. So far only Zinto could really convert, and he died Day 3. So unless whoever's left was converted N1 or N2 and then could also convert, Narc had to be N1 or N2.

Also, if Narc's a later convert, that means we could still have two Zinto converts out there. In which case we're what, 3-2? That's scary.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:04 PM   #3483
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The bolded was kind of a rebuttal to McKerney who said he didn't buy the reveal because it was not in his description of something he could see. I was more or less saying that was never mentioned by anyone until now and that is not something I didn't think the rules were clear on so he could or could not have seen a conversion.

As for Sndvls, I don't have time now, will go back tonight if I need to, but on day one or two near day deadline he made a comment does anyone have a suggestion the exorcist, or some other similar role, and later came back to say detective should watch. I thought that was a subtle way of stating he was the detective without openly saying it.

I see, i remember you saying that about Sndvls.

And I realize I missed a post from Mckerney on this page in all my archive digging. So your comment now makes sense to me! I didn't think McK had posted today.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:05 PM   #3484
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I'm going with who I really think is the wolf at this point.

Vote McKerney

I would be open to exploring dubb as well, but I think McKerney is slightly to moderately more likely to be a wolf than dubb as of now. I'm now off to work, be back on in about an hour.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:09 PM   #3485
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But that's impossible, unless the convert who's left could also convert. So far only Zinto could really convert, and he died Day 3. So unless whoever's left was converted N1 or N2 and then could also convert, Narc had to be N1 or N2.

Also, if Narc's a later convert, that means we could still have two Zinto converts out there. In which case we're what, 3-2? That's scary.


It's also possible that he wasn't able to convert both days or something like that? I have a hard time believing we're at 3-2 right now, but I suppose it's possible.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:12 PM   #3486
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Why are we on EF over chief? His vote could have swayed it to Thomakal yesterday with only 9 minutes left. I know he said he had suspicions and would bring them up, and I may have missed them, but I haven't seen what they were.

I'm embarrassed to say I dont' know how to multiquote, so following this will be another relevant post from Commo!
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:12 PM   #3487
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I guess I could see a case for EF, just have slightly better vibes off of him over CR. Also what do we think of a tie? I really don't think RA is a villager, others are crap shoot, but have 20% chance at surviving. Additionally I think it was CF who thought he had a plus one, maybe he can be on RA and if it works than at least he gets lynched, if not and another person gets lynched, we know there is something strange going on.

And here it is.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:15 PM   #3488
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It's also possible that he wasn't able to convert both days or something like that? I have a hard time believing we're at 3-2 right now, but I suppose it's possible.

Right, or one could have been blocked or something.l Would a convert be ablet o convert? Seems unlikely, but if only Zinto could really convert to begin with, maybe it's the case.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:19 PM   #3489
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I don't feel like EF is a wolf or I would consider moving my vote to create a tie. I think I will leave it on CF unless there is a valid reason I shouldn't. I think between him and Hoops we are 50/50 on hitting a wolf.

I should include this too, and later Dubb tries to get a vote on Chief going, saying he'd be willing to move to Chief.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:20 PM   #3490
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The bolded was kind of a rebuttal to McKerney who said he didn't buy the reveal because it was not in his description of something he could see. I was more or less saying that was never mentioned by anyone until now and that is not something I didn't think the rules were clear on so he could or could not have seen a conversion.

You mean except for when I brought it up in post 2446?
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:23 PM   #3491
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Well, as for my thoughts on the lynch tonight. I'm not thinking too much of the EF thing, either way is blah. As for Mr. Bug, I just think it was strange for him to move off of RA so he wouldn't be brutal killed, then for really no valid reason move off of CR back onto RA with less than 3 minutes left when CR was still several votes away from catching RA and no movement in 5 minutes and limited movement as it was. Could be him worried we were going to run onto a wolf when we had a runaway villager. I really just don't think he is with us anymore, if he was. I also think it looks really poor on CR.

Again playing neutral on EF, strong on Bug.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:30 PM   #3492
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I'm leaving my vote on EF, and I don't think finding out that Bug is lying clears EF. In the position he was in it's an easy call to give up a converted seer to buy trust.

I'm also not sold on EF's story as detective, the role says that observing someone will tell you what that person has done for the evening. To me that says you can see what action they performed, not necessarily what was done to them.

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Old 10-13-2011, 12:35 PM   #3493
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That is if Bug was indeed protected, which I think it was mistake to protect if it happened. A seer is nice, but who knows if his scans were good or he is even the seer. Additionally, he can survive and the wolves still win, the exorcist and minister survive, wolves lose.

This is one of many posts where Commo suggests that the BG shouldn't guard Bug. Not an invalid opinion, but now knowing the wolves were worried about the sheriff, mgiht be a wolf ploy.

I'm not finding much from J23 and Dubb in these stretch of days that's worth posting. On post content alone Commo an Mckerney are far more suspicious, IMO.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:38 PM   #3494
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Is Chief saying he's the scientist here?

Gotta give some credit here, a wolf might have kept quiet and hoped no one figured that out, though it was probably obvious at that point.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:43 PM   #3495
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Vote Narcizo

I still think that MrBug is more likely to be telling the truth here. EF was a likely lynch candidate after yesterday and already had the vote lead, claiming a scan is a likely desperation move to make in that situation in hopes to both buy one more day and have us do the work of killing the seer. Bug could obviously be lying too, but what decides it for me is that there's more risk in lynching Bug today in that we'd be doing the wolves a favor in killing the seer for them.

I could also see EF being a wolf and Bug being converted last night with the two of them hoping that we'd lynch a villager Bug lead us to in Narc today, then lynching Bug tomorrow. EF comes out looking good from it without losing much because the longer Bug stays around the more suspicious we become of him even if EF doesn't claim he's a convert. Something to consider if things do come back Narcizo villager/Bug convert, but for now I'd rather hope that we can trust Bug's scan.

Here's Mckerney's reasoning, he later moves to EF. Nothing wrong with his reasoning here, it's how i was feeling at the time also. If he's a wolf, I think this is a wolf knowing Bug will probably go down and wanting to look good after. If he's a villager, well then this is a great vote coming after some very poor ones.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:50 PM   #3496
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He never said he was a seer, Bug said that. I've been holding off, but here is my thinking. EF is the Detective and watched Bug. He saw he didn't do a scan, possibly even kill DZ.

Commo was the first to come up with the detective explanation. Not sure what I think about that, but I do wonder if he was worried about EF not coming back to explain himself, and needing this evidence to push the Bug lynch. At this point Commo had to figure he'd be Bug's next scan if he lived, and the wolves knew they couldn't kill Bug that night most likely.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:52 PM   #3497
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I think he said convert because he believed Bug was the Seer. Even the Seer I don't think knows if anyone is a convert. But if he observes Bug killing DZ or not scanning when he said he'd wait to release his scan result that leads to wolf. Which would have to be convert if he was a seer to start. I also thought other roles were only given to those exercised.

I hadn't noticed as the day was happening, but besides going after Bug relentlessly, Commo was also very active in coming up with explanations and defenses for EF while EF was gone. Again, a bit out there, but could be a desperate wolf.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:53 PM   #3498
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Detective – Once per night, you can Observe Someone. This will tell you what that person has done for the evening. For example, you would learn that an Adept cast a spell, but not what the results were. If you observe another spellcaster, you would not be able to tell the difference between an Adept and them. Observing can be dangerous.

To me that doesn't sound like someone who is able to scan to see if someone has been converted.

Mckerney on the other hand completely dismisses these ideas about the detective.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:55 PM   #3499
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That is the problem, he didn't say anything really other than bug is bad and that is who he is voting for. I didn't want to say what I thought he could be because I didn't want to give him ideas. I felt I had to though as I think it is a HUGE mistake to lynch him for that word when Bug has been very skeptical to others. I'm just laying it out there that he can find out bug is bad with a non hidden role that no one else has claimed.

I need to stop quoting these things but I'm being reminded how over the top Commo was here. He says it's a "HUGE" mistake to lynch EF, while advocating lynching the seer. Given how our lynches have gone I'm not going to lynch someone just for possibly making some boneheaded villager plays, but man oh man.
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Old 10-13-2011, 12:56 PM   #3500
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I think for grammar purposes.

This is in response to the question about why EF said "a detective" instead of "the detective." Interesting that Commo defended even that.
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