WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I see now, I must have glossed over this post as I was coming back from lunch at the time it was made.

You don't think a wolf would try to poke holes in another wolf's story in that situation? They have clearly given up on two wolves. IMO they would need the remaining wolves to try and buy trust at that point. Being a wolf isn't about one person, it is about the big picture of winning. There is alot going on behind the scenes with the wolf team. There is no way every wolf does the same thing every day. It would link them together and the wolves would be too easy to vote out.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Trouble is that's the same thing villagers would like to do, see how people will vote so they don't just let the wolf pile on to a wrong vote. I am definitely voting Mckerney or Commo, I just wanted to give them all day to convince me one way or the other.

Well the main case for me seems to be that I'm a good target for being killed or converted after revealing early on in the game. I can't really argue that point too much, as I'm surprised to be both alive and still a villager at the point in the game. All I can think of to counter that is the same as yesterday, even though I revealed the role of martyr isn't one that can really hurt the wolves in many situations, and being around makes me a target to help the wolves avoid a lynch late in the game.

The other two issues are bad voting record the first four days, and then trying to hide by going against EF on day 5. Like the possible conversion, can't argue that I don't have a bad voting record early, though it's not the first time I haven't been able to figure anything out early in the game as a villager. If people had me pegged as a possible conversion target night two, I'm not sure my voting record was much worse days three through four than the first two nights, it was pretty terrible all around.

If I were a wolf I don't think I would have sided with EF on his reveal day five, but I also don't think a wolf would have pushed as hard against EF's reveal as I did. Looking back I wish I'd don't more at the time, I was considering using my role to force a lynch of either me or EF but unfortunately didn't. But I still think I fought him on his reveal more than a wolf would have, it was obvious in their plans that day to take out the seer during the lynch without having to worry about the body guard, and probably to draw other roles out with the fake body guard reveal.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Commo was the first to come up with the detective explanation. Not sure what I think about that, but I do wonder if he was worried about EF not coming back to explain himself, and needing this evidence to push the Bug lynch. At this point Commo had to figure he'd be Bug's next scan if he lived, and the wolves knew they couldn't kill Bug that night most likely.

As I stated, I didn't want to give reasons, but I didn't want a runaway vote over the use of converted. I might have said we have a convert even if I didn't see the conversion taking place based on other things. It is easy to go back and see things when you know who is a wolf v. villager, but when you have a fog of war mistakes are made.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Hmmmm.....It seems I'm being dense about the tinkerer. Don't remember anything about that role. Maybe one isn't in? Maybe one of the convert deaths we have had were one/both of those roles I guess. I mean I wouldn't advertise that I was a role if I was about to be a dead wolf convert.

Good point, narc might have had a role, I hadn't reevaluated that chance since Mauboy came up as real. So he might have been the Tink or the LIfegiver.

[J23]

Originally Posted by dubb93

In the last ten minutes I've seen Autumn, McKerney, and Commo all in thread. No votes.

I'm back if you want to start the countdown on me while I continue to catch up

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I need to stop quoting these things but I'm being reminded how over the top Commo was here. He says it's a "HUGE" mistake to lynch EF, while advocating lynching the seer. Given how our lynches have gone I'm not going to lynch someone just for possibly making some boneheaded villager plays, but man oh man.

Out of context that looks really bad, but taken in context. I was stating that I thought it was a huge mistake to lynch someone over the use of one word to believe someone that may not even be the seer anymore, if he was at all. We had two people come out against our seer and the real detective, who I trusted, said he believed him at first and never would explain why three words was too much info.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

As I stated, I didn't want to give reasons, but I didn't want a runaway vote over the use of converted. I might have said we have a convert even if I didn't see the conversion taking place based on other things. It is easy to go back and see things when you know who is a wolf v. villager, but when you have a fog of war mistakes are made.

this is a really key piece in my case against you Commo. I can understand the reasoning you gave, but man you really went to bat for him. I can't imagine why a villager would be so sure, and stick himself on the line for a possible wolf. I can easily imagine why a wolf in that situation would. You didn't just make the point once, you continued it over and over, really bending over backwards to make EF seem good.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Commo if you're a villager you really put your ass on the line for some wolves.

I'm really a villager, and I did put it on the line, but I put it on the line because I honestly thought the people I voted for were wolves. I advocated for lynching both NTN and Zinto, but that gets forgotten because I was strong on lynching our seer, who at the time was suspicious to me, and still would be I'm sure if I re-read everything. I wouldn't have been on every wolf though if I was one, especially state why I thought NTN and Zinto should be lynched.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I can see why that would be, but it would be a waste. I'm not the only one that thought Bug could be bad and the vote on Bug was also to get more information, not like lynching him gave us nothing. If EF is telling the truth the only person that really looked good today was Bug, unfortunately he is now dead.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Everyone else is pretty much saying they're going to string up Narc and EF, Mckerney adding that he'll go after Commo next. Commo is the only one seeming to leave an opening still for EF being good. Dubb calls him on that.

And what if EF would have been good this if I recall was taken right after the lynch of bug, before EF came and stated his mistake. I also never advocated that we not lynch EF, I think we lynched Narc and EF in the correct order. Why would we lynch EF when he can't do anything. In fact think of this, if we had lynched EF instead of Narc that day Narc would have survived we would have had our two nights straight and who knows maybe one of those nights is a double night kill because of there for sure being two wolves left.

[Autumn]

A lot hinges on Day 5 to me. Did the wolves take the strategy of having their last hidden member come out against them (as mckerney did), or try to save them (as commo did). It would be an easy pick for me, I think, if Commo wasn't new. I think most of the time the wolves would act just like Mckerney did, making key hidden votes in their favor most days, but distancing themselves on hot days like Day 5. But I can also believe that a new wolf would take a different script, especially with four wolves nearly down and the game on the line.

Narizo and EF I think would probably encourage a fellow wolf to play as Mckerney did. It seemed like EF wasn't really around though, and Narc's on a different time zone. So again there's reason to think they might not have been there to coach Commo.

I'm going to look back at one thing, the last few night kills to see if that gives me a clue.

[J23]

Does anyone have who MrBug scanned on night 2 as opposed to night 3 handy?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by J23

Does anyone have who MrBug scanned on night 2 as opposed to night 3 handy?

Didn't Bug claim to scan two people on N2?

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

I would hope that if you look back Dubb, you'll see that I've been fairly involved throughout and haven't been shy about giving my opinions. I would think an "UTR" wolf would be more likely to tag along w/ others in voting rather than give their own reasoning which can be picked apart later. Feel free to go back and look at my votes if you suspect me of doing that, and I'm pretty sure you won't see it.

I'm feeling the same way about Commo actually though I'm not sure how him being a newer player might affect things.

Saw it somewhere else while at work, so I'll answer a few quotes with this one post. It was made obvious several days ago by McKerney, dubb, and possibly others that I'd be the next person to be looked at and wouldn't make it to the end of the game. This coupled with the fact that I obviously had much doubt about our seer actually being our seer, makes me believe I'm going to get votes and look like a wolf. What I don't like is the fact that I'm a "new player". While this may be true, I'm fairly intelligent and wouldn't stick my neck out there with wolves going down left and right. Why would I want to bring more attention to myself? I would have done some things like I did early, but surely wouldn't have started a bunch of controversy. I would bring up some things not to go completely UTR, but in no way would I or any wolf stick there neck out so much for two people that are going to be dead wolves. The day bug died was really the day all three candidates died and mau died. This is because no matter what happened that day EF and Narc are getting lynched. If Mau reveals as sheriff it is a mind game on who he protects, himself or the seer, but the seer probably is killed that night while Narc dies. EF then looks bad because he was wrong, his back tracking wouldn't save him as it already has shown, so he is the next lynch. He then drags the sheriff into the flames with him. There is no way around it they all died that day, no wolf sticks their neck out defending two wolves who already hung themselves, it would be impossible and suicide for the wolf, new player or not.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

Does anyone have who MrBug scanned on night 2 as opposed to night 3 handy?

I think we were saying he scanned Mauboy Night 3, so the other two Night 2.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Another plus for Commo is that I thought he hinted @ being the lifegiver.

In reality he was thinking I was the lifegiver. He said he passed me an item hoping I could use it to revive someone. Someone did infact pass me that item so I think that is a + for Commo.

Speaking of the Lifegiver. The Lifegiver is clearly a wolf. That leaves either you J23 or Autumn. Hmmmmmm... I think we may have 2 wolves left at this point acutally. McKerney and then the Lifegiver which would be either J23 or Autumn.

I'm not sure the lifegiver is surely a wolf, maybe that role never existed. It could have just been there to give us hope or possibly didn't have the right dice roll to bring it into the game.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Third time you've been here since I asked you a question Commo. Glad to see you are sticking to your wolfdom today too.

I didn't answer questions because I didn't have time to convey my thoughts on my phone and knew I'd be home with plenty of time to answer questions. If I've missed it feel free to reask it.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Just kidding.

Imagine if the wolves did night fall this is with no votes. We would all die.

Vote Commo

I was the first to vote and voted McKerney this morning.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I was the first to vote and voted McKerney this morning.

Really?

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Vote Commo

If you want my vote now, Commo remains the only one I can convince myself of any sort of a case for with his going over the top in defense of EF day five, though part of me still thinks that the wolves would be a bit more careful than basically outing three wolves to get the seer lynched (though Narc would have been in those plans at the start of the day).

I'm extremely skeptical of people pushing me, being a villager that is easy for people to make me look like a wolf. Starting the day Autumn was at the bottom of my list of suspects, but he has been climbing up with all his pushing everyone but himself. I think I only saw one thing he posted that was negative about himself.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by dubb93

I seriously question why anyone would hold their vote in a game that it has been established that there is a possibility the wolves can nightfall it early.

I thought everyone had to vote nightfall.

[Autumn]

We've gotten replies out of Mckerney and Commo, which is good. I'm still pretty torn. I've changed my mind several times here. I think I have to go with what seems the most obvious wolf. Commo has been pinging people's wolfdar for days. If we hadn't been distracted by two obvious wolves, or Mauboy's antics, or Bug, we would have strung him up a while ago, to be honest. I can't ignore the way he was clearly trying to save EF's butt, pushing the village to question Bug. And even more than that, just most of his posts gave me that gut sense. If one of you other guys is the wolf you've done a better job at hiding it.

vote commo_soldier

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by dubb93

You don't think a wolf would try to poke holes in another wolf's story in that situation? They have clearly given up on two wolves. IMO they would need the remaining wolves to try and buy trust at that point. Being a wolf isn't about one person, it is about the big picture of winning. There is alot going on behind the scenes with the wolf team. There is no way every wolf does the same thing every day. It would link them together and the wolves would be too easy to vote out.

I think it is possible, I don't think a wolf sticks up for a wolf in that situation when they already hung themselves. I was just quoting that because I said it hadn't been brought up before today and it clearly was and I just missed it.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Zinto and CF have been dealt with. They are now corpses. And as long as you don't nightfall this I promise I won't freak out.

Just remember you promised

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I'm extremely skeptical of people pushing me, being a villager that is easy for people to make me look like a wolf. Starting the day Autumn was at the bottom of my list of suspects, but he has been climbing up with all his pushing everyone but himself. I think I only saw one thing he posted that was negative about himself.

Is it my job to make myself look bad? You guys have had all day to dig the dirt on me, I think I did plenty of work.

Of course I'm pushing you, Commo. You've been a very likely suspect for days. I could hae just voted you this morning first thing and nobody would have blinked. I've looked at the case for all four of you, and spent all day deciding between you and Mckerney. Trust me, this is the most consideration you're ever likely to get in a vote for you in a Werewolf game.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by mckerney

Well the main case for me seems to be that I'm a good target for being killed or converted after revealing early on in the game. I can't really argue that point too much, as I'm surprised to be both alive and still a villager at the point in the game. All I can think of to counter that is the same as yesterday, even though I revealed the role of martyr isn't one that can really hurt the wolves in many situations, and being around makes me a target to help the wolves avoid a lynch late in the game.

The other two issues are bad voting record the first four days, and then trying to hide by going against EF on day 5. Like the possible conversion, can't argue that I don't have a bad voting record early, though it's not the first time I haven't been able to figure anything out early in the game as a villager. If people had me pegged as a possible conversion target night two, I'm not sure my voting record was much worse days three through four than the first two nights, it was pretty terrible all around.

If I were a wolf I don't think I would have sided with EF on his reveal day five, but I also don't think a wolf would have pushed as hard against EF's reveal as I did. Looking back I wish I'd don't more at the time, I was considering using my role to force a lynch of either me or EF but unfortunately didn't. But I still think I fought him on his reveal more than a wolf would have, it was obvious in their plans that day to take out the seer during the lynch without having to worry about the body guard, and probably to draw other roles out with the fake body guard reveal.

I think it is entirely possible a wolf does push as EF was already dead, it was just a matter of when he died.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Autumn

We've gotten replies out of Mckerney and Commo, which is good. I'm still pretty torn. I've changed my mind several times here. I think I have to go with what seems the most obvious wolf. Commo has been pinging people's wolfdar for days. If we hadn't been distracted by two obvious wolves, or Mauboy's antics, or Bug, we would have strung him up a while ago, to be honest. I can't ignore the way he was clearly trying to save EF's butt, pushing the village to question Bug. And even more than that, just most of his posts gave me that gut sense. If one of you other guys is the wolf you've done a better job at hiding it.

vote commo_soldier

A fair argument. I get hung up at the whole "Why is McKerney still alive" phase. He role revealed on D2. He is still here. There just isn't any reason for that. Why would the wolves take hoops on N8 who was bound to draw votes just b/c, well, he is Hoops on D9/D10/D11. Why not take McKerney there? I can't get past that.

[dubb93]

I definitely understood the whole "role hunting" thing prior to Mau's reveal. At that point they have to take McKerney b/c he had revealed.

[Autumn]

And now I have to get some work done. I'll be interested to see J23's take on things. This sort of analysis is definitely not my forte, but i tried to do a better than normal job. I'm sure I've mised obvious things though.

[J23]

I don't think I'll be voting for Commo tonight. I'm trying to decide between Mackerney and Autumn atm and trying to re-read some of the discussion and re-construct a timeline of conversion stuff that makes sense to me.

[dubb93]

BAH! J23 hasn't voted yet. Whatthefawolf!

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by dubb93

A fair argument. I get hung up at the whole "Why is McKerney still alive" phase. He role revealed on D2. He is still here. There just isn't any reason for that. Why would the wolves take hoops on N8 who was bound to draw votes just b/c, well, he is Hoops on D9/D10/D11. Why not take McKerney there? I can't get past that.

Yeah I was really surprised at taking Hoops. He was rising to the top of my suspects just by being alive, and he was rather quiet this game too.

I hear you. I find Mckerney being converted much more likely than Commo. but i would feel like an idiot if Commo was the wolf and so much out in the open and I didn't vote him.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

this is a really key piece in my case against you Commo. I can understand the reasoning you gave, but man you really went to bat for him. I can't imagine why a villager would be so sure, and stick himself on the line for a possible wolf. I can easily imagine why a wolf in that situation would. You didn't just make the point once, you continued it over and over, really bending over backwards to make EF seem good.

I did go to bat, but only to wait to hear what he had to say. Everyone was jumping on him because of one word and I didn't want it to get so far out of hand that he was dead before he had a chance to explain. Now that I see he was a wolf, I obviously wouldn't have gone out of my way to help, but think if he was a villager, which at the time was entirely possible he was. It would have been perfect for a wolf to have a runaway on a villager with another wolf in trouble. Had Mau came out that day or SN stated why three words was too much I would have been on him and Narc like I was on Bug, but none of that ever happened until they were dead or just hours from a certain death.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

A lot hinges on Day 5 to me. Did the wolves take the strategy of having their last hidden member come out against them (as mckerney did), or try to save them (as commo did). It would be an easy pick for me, I think, if Commo wasn't new. I think most of the time the wolves would act just like Mckerney did, making key hidden votes in their favor most days, but distancing themselves on hot days like Day 5. But I can also believe that a new wolf would take a different script, especially with four wolves nearly down and the game on the line.

Narizo and EF I think would probably encourage a fellow wolf to play as Mckerney did. It seemed like EF wasn't really around though, and Narc's on a different time zone. So again there's reason to think they might not have been there to coach Commo.

I'm going to look back at one thing, the last few night kills to see if that gives me a clue.

Won't hit on this too much as I already addressed it, but I may be new, but I'm not a complete idiot. I could see if I was a new wolf possibly sticking up for them, but I don't think anyone goes through the lengths I went through.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

I don't think I'll be voting for Commo tonight. I'm trying to decide between Mackerney and Autumn atm and trying to re-read some of the discussion and re-construct a timeline of conversion stuff that makes sense to me.

If someone's going to suddenly vote me, I'd really appreciate a head's up, involving reasons why. I feel like there's a pretty darn strong case that I'm a villager, and I'll make it if need be.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I'm going with who I really think is the wolf at this point.

Vote McKerney

I would be open to exploring dubb as well, but I think McKerney is slightly to moderately more likely to be a wolf than dubb as of now. I'm now off to work, be back on in about an hour.

Originally Posted by dubb93

Really?

Really

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Autumn

If someone's going to suddenly vote me, I'd really appreciate a head's up, involving reasons why. I feel like there's a pretty darn strong case that I'm a villager, and I'll make it if need be.

Unvote McKerney
Vote Autumn

I think you need to make this case.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Won't hit on this too much as I already addressed it, but I may be new, but I'm not a complete idiot. I could see if I was a new wolf possibly sticking up for them, but I don't think anyone goes through the lengths I went through.

I understand, and if you're a villager I know that's galling. Trust me, I've been voted out in this spot many, many times on things I knew were ludicrous reasons. What's hard about you being newer is just that I don't know your playing style. So it's hard to assess what you would 'normally' do in that situation.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Really

You dodged a bullet. Had I seen that and that you tried to push for me as well I would have been all over you like I was last game.

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by dubb93

A fair argument. I get hung up at the whole "Why is McKerney still alive" phase. He role revealed on D2. He is still here. There just isn't any reason for that. Why would the wolves take hoops on N8 who was bound to draw votes just b/c, well, he is Hoops on D9/D10/D11. Why not take McKerney there? I can't get past that.

With the same thinking as why take hoops, couldn't it be "why take revealed martyr, he's bound to draw votes D9/D10/D11 because he's a revealed play who's still alive?"

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

We've gotten replies out of Mckerney and Commo, which is good. I'm still pretty torn. I've changed my mind several times here. I think I have to go with what seems the most obvious wolf. Commo has been pinging people's wolfdar for days. If we hadn't been distracted by two obvious wolves, or Mauboy's antics, or Bug, we would have strung him up a while ago, to be honest. I can't ignore the way he was clearly trying to save EF's butt, pushing the village to question Bug. And even more than that, just most of his posts gave me that gut sense. If one of you other guys is the wolf you've done a better job at hiding it.

vote commo_soldier

I wouldn't have pushed bug so hard if he didn't make some weird, in my eyes, comments. We have 30 minutes to find the real wolf, but if I'm voted I at least get a 40% chance at life.

[dubb93]

Unvote Autumn
Vote McKerney

Maybe I got Autumn to defend himself! We shall see.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by mckerney

With the same thinking as why take hoops, couldn't it be "why take revealed martyr, he's bound to draw votes D9/D10/D11 because he's a revealed play who's still alive?"

Not seeing it.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Is it my job to make myself look bad? You guys have had all day to dig the dirt on me, I think I did plenty of work.

Of course I'm pushing you, Commo. You've been a very likely suspect for days. I could hae just voted you this morning first thing and nobody would have blinked. I've looked at the case for all four of you, and spent all day deciding between you and Mckerney. Trust me, this is the most consideration you're ever likely to get in a vote for you in a Werewolf game.

I wish I had the time to make a case against anyone, but I've been trying to defend mine and get caught up for the past hour. It is not your job though, but if you're a villager what do you have to hide about bringing up negative things about yourself?

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

If someone's going to suddenly vote me, I'd really appreciate a head's up, involving reasons why. I feel like there's a pretty darn strong case that I'm a villager, and I'll make it if need be.

Then you should make it.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mckerney

With the same thinking as why take hoops, couldn't it be "why take revealed martyr, he's bound to draw votes D9/D10/D11 because he's a revealed play who's still alive?"

Why take jackal?

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by dubb93

You dodged a bullet. Had I seen that and that you tried to push for me as well I would have been all over you like I was last game.

Part of the thing is I get good and bad vibes, then I think you are probably one of the better players as the one game I read, wolves of asgard I think you were NK right away. So I think why is he still alive.

[Commo_Soldier]

Finally caught up and with 20 minutes to spare, anyone have a vote count?

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Not seeing it.

Well I'm still a villager and I'm getting votes on day 10 because I'm still alive, if that's the plan it seems to be working pretty well.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Part of the thing is I get good and bad vibes, then I think you are probably one of the better players as the one game I read, wolves of asgard I think you were NK right away. So I think why is he still alive.

Lol, I think I linked several wolves together on D1 in that game. They made a classic wolf mistake and I was the only one who caught it. It earned me a N1 kill.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Lol, I think I linked several wolves together on D1 in that game. They made a classic wolf mistake and I was the only one who caught it. It earned me a N1 kill.

Yea it was Danny and Darth. They were lynched D2 and D3 after I was NK'ed.