WW XCIII - Mine Wars - Battle of Blair Mountain - SYMPATHIZERS WIN!!!

[Glengoyne]

Allright we gotta win the next one, as our margin of error is rapidly eroding. Besides, we need to kill a wolf to see how Daddy Torgo fares in a random sampling.

[Danny]

I have a werewolf history log of all my games. I list the game, my role and whether my side won or not.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Danny

I have a werewolf history log of all my games. I list the game, my role and whether my side won or not.

Nerd.

[Danny]

I even have a note by the last game that says Loss, Wolf (GM mistake)

Sorry pass

[Poli]

He snoozes, you loozes.

[Barkeep49]

So how big do we go?

[Danny]

They have 30 more minutes to decide, lets not talk about it yet

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Poli

Nerd.

+1

[Danny]

Now that their deadline is up. I say we go small again, maybe around 400 this time.

Right now if the game is 5-4, I think we lose no matter what as I see no way we will be able to win 4 straight rounds. If we're 6-3, we can still afford to lose 2 more rounds without winning one. I think the wolves once again expected us to go big and likely went small. I expect the wolves to continue going small until they are at a possible end game actually. So I think we need to go bigger than last round, but still small. If we can pick up a victory without using many troops, that helps us a lot.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Danny

Now that their deadline is up. I say we go small again, maybe around 400 this time.

Right now if the game is 5-4, I think we lose no matter what as I see no way we will be able to win 4 straight rounds. If we're 6-3, we can still afford to lose 2 more rounds without winning one. I think the wolves once again expected us to go big and likely went small. I expect the wolves to continue going small until they are at a possible end game actually. So I think we need to go bigger than last round, but still small. If we can pick up a victory without using many troops, that helps us a lot.

Furthermore if the game is 5-4, we would need to sneak out one or two going small anyway, so might as well try it now.

[Barkeep49]

We don't need to win 4 straight if it's 5-4. Since if we win 1, it's 5-3 and we once again have a margin for error.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

We don't need to win 4 straight if it's 5-4. Since if we win 1, it's 5-3 and we once again have a margin for error.

Oh, that's true. I still think we should go small here.

[Danny]

I think it's very unlikely there are four wolves left. If there were the wolves would have gone bigger in round 1 knowing they could win this with two wins and their gas usage.

[Danny]

Although I am assuming the wolves sent out 0 in round 1, is this correct or did they just not have to use troops because we didn't put in any?

[Barkeep49]

So it's 5-3. Why go small? I'm just not seeing it in this round.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

Although I am assuming the wolves sent out 0 in round 1, is this correct or did they just not have to use troops because we didn't put in any?

They didn't have to use any because we sent 0.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So it's 5-3. Why go small? I'm just not seeing it in this round.

6-3, could even be 7-2. We're going to need to pick up a victory at some point going small I would think. I think the wolves went very small here again. If it's 5-4, they will just put all their troops in and win anyway.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

They didn't have to use any because we sent 0.

What the heck then, I thought they chose to use 0. So if we submitted an action of of 1, they would have used them all?

[Barkeep49]

Ok the poring of all the troops is true. You're right in that sense. I still don't understand your logic of "we have to go small at some point".

[Danny]

I misunderstood the results from earlier. I don't understand why the sympathizers troops weren't sent out.

[DaddyTorgo]

idk what we should do

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

I misunderstood the results from earlier. I don't understand why the sympathizers troops weren't sent out.

Cause we sent out 0 so they jsut win automatically.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Ok the poring of all the troops is true. You're right in that sense. I still don't understand your logic of "we have to go small at some point".

Because the wolves have the advantage of knowing how many troops both sides have. Right now, they have a big advantage from that. I think it's going to be tough to win 3 rounds by sending in 2-5 thousand from each. If we win 1 by using a small number of troops, we have a lot more flexibility in how to try and win the other rounds.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Cause we sent out 0 so they jsut win automatically.

Was that in the rules?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

6-3, could even be 7-2. We're going to need to pick up a victory at some point going small I would think. I think the wolves went very small here again. If it's 5-4, they will just put all their troops in and win anyway.

I like the way you think

[Danny]

Since I misunderstood the results from earlier, we might be better off going bigger this time then. I just think going middle ground is the worst strategy and going big or small is the way to go. But we can't go big now because then our cards are on the table too early.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

Because the wolves have the advantage of knowing how many troops both sides have. Right now, they have a big advantage from that. I think it's going to be tough to win 3 rounds by sending in 2-5 thousand from each. If we win 1 by using a small number of troops, we have a lot more flexibility in how to try and win the other rounds.

A second opinion would be nice. I need to get the order in soon.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

Since I misunderstood the results from earlier, we might be better off going bigger this time then. I just think going middle ground is the worst strategy and going big or small is the way to go. But we can't go big now because then our cards are on the table too early.

So give an exact amount of how many you propose.

[claphamsa]

I have no thouts! Im confuzzled again!

[Danny]

I understand why you were upset earlier now barkeep. Their soldiers should have been used or the initial rules should have said that a 0 solder count results in an automatic loss.

I do wonder if there is the possibility we will get more soldiers at the end of the day. In the initial write up, it says initial soldier count.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

So give an exact amount of how many you propose.

Maybe 1 thousand? I'd go as high as 2, but I don't think I would go higher than that.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Danny

I understand why you were upset earlier now barkeep. Their soldiers should have been used or the initial rules should have said that a 0 solder count results in an automatic loss.

I do wonder if there is the possibility we will get more soldiers at the end of the day. In the initial write up, it says initial soldier count.

Clearly I should have been slightly less clever. Whatever.

[DaddyTorgo]

i think "small" = under 2k, and "large" = roughly 1/n-1) where n=number of stages left

[Danny]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

i think "small" = under 2k, and "large" = roughly 1/n-1) where n=number of stages left

I think this is about. Middle ground would be total number of stages divided by number of stages needed to win. I think we should avoid going that high here.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Danny

I think this is about right. Middle ground would be total number of stages divided by number of stages needed to win. I think we should avoid going that high here.

Fixed

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Clearly I should have been slightly less clever. Whatever.

salty!

[Danny]

How about going 1800 here?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

How about going 1800 here?

I say higher, we still have to use our alien taser ray against you

[PurdueBrad]

BK, I'm around. I don't know what to make of it. While I don't think we're at end game, I wonder if the wolves have enough momentum to really start going a third or half in here. I'm not arguing for us to put like 4 k in, but 2500-3000 seems safe as it is 1/5'th-1/4'th of what we have. I really don't want to give up another loss here but I may be in the minority there. The talk of going small here again throws me but that's your call. You and Danny are the two I trust and Danny says small.

[Barkeep49]

Commit 1800 workers

[Barkeep49]

Uncommit 1800 Workers
Committ 2572

I think we need to win today and there is, I feel, benefit in going 2500 vs 1800

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Uncommit 1800 Workers
Committ 2572

I think we need to win today and there is, I feel, benefit in going 2500 vs 1800

I support your number (unless we lose the round in which case I will backtrack and say we should have put in whatever number they did +1)

[Abe Sargent]

I si back

[Danny]

BK, should we talk about it more and give the final answer and let Abe run result early?

[Danny]

That should say OR

[PurdueBrad]

BK, I think that's a good, safe middle-ground. 1800 felt a little low and 3000 is probably a little high at this point.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Danny

I understand why you were upset earlier now barkeep. Their soldiers should have been used or the initial rules should have said that a 0 solder count results in an automatic loss.

I do wonder if there is the possibility we will get more soldiers at the end of the day. In the initial write up, it says initial soldier count.

Remind me to answer this after teh game. I think revelation will help here.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Remind me to answer this after teh game. I think revelation will help here.

I'll trust you, but right now it seems unjust

[PurdueBrad]

BK, it's pretty quiet. What were your instincts for this phase, out of curiousity?

[Danny]

I think BK left, looks like we'll have to wait another hour to find out what will happen. Boo!