WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

With the remaining wolf likely being a convert, I think the vote on ntn is completely useless to look at other than for which villager looks good and is therefore a good person to convert.

I think when Zinto died, the remaining wolf had already been converted, so that vote might have some good information in it, however, a lot of conversion mechanics have a limited number of uses, and if his were used up, it might not be a bad spot to buy trust as a villager. I'll have to go back to the vote records to have an idea if there's anything there that I can see.

I agree, one of the reasons I suspected dubb earlier, as I believe I stated, or at least thought I did maybe at 1 am, was that he came out day one or two and said if he was a wolf he would have jumped on NTN to buy trust. So come day three looks like he has his opportunity.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

I wouldn't quote dubious things about myself as I'm looking through. When I was scanning the thread earlier tonight, I was definitely more drawn to the parts that I got it right as opposed to questionable posts. When I read back through, I still have the justifications for why I said the things I did in my head, so it's harder for me to spot anything "bad" honestly.

Not saying he had to pull out the really bad stuff, but just some bad calls would have been something I think a villager would do. That said I'm not positive that is something to lynch someone on, but if it was him vs. McKerney, I just started to get a better feeling about McKerney and less about Autumn as he kept saying why everyone else should be a candidate and not him.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I understand that, but you had to have come across some strange posts of yours while going through page by page, adding one or two wouldn't have hurt, I would have done it. If you truly believe you were in the right it shouldn't be that hard for you to explain. Getting others to believe you is another story as I'm seeing however.

This is like an addiction, I can't stop responding.

I read through over 30 pages of posts today, while I was working. I did not read every post, I Read posts by wolves, or people still alive. I did not read my own posts, at all. So that would be why I didn't quote any of them.

[dubb93]

FWIW last game we had to convert early. We couldn't convert after N3. I don't see that changing here. Probably 2 starting wolves with converts N 1, 2, 3 or 3 with converts N1 + 2.

[Abe Sargent]

With no trust left among the four of you, you sit up all night in front of a fire watching each other. Hopefully, you will be able to keep away whatever has been happening, or at least find out who did it.


You begin the night fitfully, fighting sleep and a creeping fear. As the night draws on, you begin to lose the fight with sleep. It has been ten days since you began to fear the night, and that is an awfully hard time on the soul and body.


Shortly after midnight, one of you begins talking to the others. Two more respond, but one is not talking. It doesn't look like he fell asleep, his eyes are open.


You move up and to him, and discover that his neck was snapped in such a way that it didn't even move him much at all.


Now there are just three of you.



dubb was a Lightbringer



Night Ten has ended. Day Eleven Has Begun and will end at 10 pm EST

[MrBug708]

Hmmm...

[J23]

That makes my choices tomorrow easier actually. I was really wondering why Dubb hadn't been taken out a long time ago honestly.

[J23]

Vote Commo_Soldier

I'll look around tomorrow, but I'm probably going to have a hard time not ending up here.

[The Jackal]

Showdown, exciting.

[Commo_Soldier]

Now I'm really confused. I would have thought it would have been J23 dying as the rest of us were all suspicious and you seemed like the obvious villager. I'm not sure who to vote now.

[Autumn]

That was quick.

I did get some work done, but I spent most of it trying to figure out who would get killed and what that would mean. Commo didn't really have any choice but to kill Dubb. He had to hope that J23 and I would be more open to thinking things over, and was probably counting on J23 who had said earlier tonight that he was deciding between me and Mckerney.

Is it possible J23 is the bad guy? Yes. But I think J23 would have killed me and leave Commo and Dubb together. Or even kill Commo and hope Dubb would gang up on me. I don't see J23 taking out Dubb.

Which is all to say, I can't see myself voting anywhere else today. J23, if you're the bad guy you played an incredible game. I read a lot of posts this morning and I didn't see a hell of a lot to incriminate you on.

vote commo

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Now I'm really confused. I would have thought it would have been J23 dying as the rest of us were all suspicious and you seemed like the obvious villager. I'm not sure who to vote now.

If Dubb were bad, probably he would have killed J23, figuring he could convince you of me, or me of you. If I were bad I would have killed J23, knowing Dubb was going after you, or that if he switched you were dubious of Dubb.

I think only you or J23 don't kill J23. ;-)

[Commo_Soldier]

Interesting that it seems J23 was the one on after the post as Autumn went to bed. I'm not sure what to read of that if anything.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

That makes my choices tomorrow easier actually. I was really wondering why Dubb hadn't been taken out a long time ago honestly.

My guess is Commo didn't think he could do so without drawing attention to himself. He tried passing the holly instead, to try to work Dubb onto his side and that almost worked.

[Autumn]

As you can see I'm not in bed yet ;-) I did just finish the file I'm working on though, and I'm going there now. I'll come and take a look again in the morning, but can't really imagine things will have changed.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

That was quick.

I did get some work done, but I spent most of it trying to figure out who would get killed and what that would mean. Commo didn't really have any choice but to kill Dubb. He had to hope that J23 and I would be more open to thinking things over, and was probably counting on J23 who had said earlier tonight that he was deciding between me and Mckerney.

Is it possible J23 is the bad guy? Yes. But I think J23 would have killed me and leave Commo and Dubb together. Or even kill Commo and hope Dubb would gang up on me. I don't see J23 taking out Dubb.

Which is all to say, I can't see myself voting anywhere else today. J23, if you're the bad guy you played an incredible game. I read a lot of posts this morning and I didn't see a hell of a lot to incriminate you on.

vote commo

That is the thing, if there were three suspicious people, why is J23 the quiet one still alive? it would be the suspicious ones you'd think that were alive.

Vote J23

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Interesting that it seems J23 was the one on after the post as Autumn went to bed. I'm not sure what to read of that if anything.

NM, Autumn was on as well to send the PM.

[Commo_Soldier]

It is really interesting to have this come down to three and have the wolf laughing his ass off because the most suspicious person is a villager.

[J23]

So we're all around, and there shouldn't be another nightkill given that we're 1-1 after the lynch at worst, is there harm in sharing what items we might still have?

[Commo_Soldier]

If I do die, and we end up with the 12% likelihood of every villager getting lynched it will be interesting to see what the mechanic for one v one is. Also if there is no way you guys change why not vote night fall, but what ever one of you is a villager, I'm guessing autumn at this point is making a big mistake.

[J23]

where are you getting the 12% from Commo?

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

So we're all around, and there shouldn't be another nightkill given that we're 1-1 after the lynch at worst, is there harm in sharing what items we might still have?

I have a light charm so I'm 40% at surviving tonight, so I'd say there is a possibility of the items being in play. Why are you fishing for items when you can easily wait less than 24 hours.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

So we're all around, and there shouldn't be another nightkill given that we're 1-1 after the lynch at worst, is there harm in sharing what items we might still have?

I can't see how it could hurt. But I don't have any items left. I had the tincture, which I used a few nights ago, and the belladonna. I never got anything else.

[J23]

I think getting more information out there can't hurt the village.

The item I currently have, and started the game with, is a dark charm. While I've been worried about it getting taken by the wolves if I was nightkilled, I haven't had enough faith in anyone to see that it is better off in someone else's hands.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

I think getting more information out there can't hurt the village.

The item I currently have, and started the game with, is a dark charm. While I've been worried about it getting taken by the wolves if I was nightkilled, I haven't had enough faith in anyone to see that it is better off in someone else's hands.

Wow, that's what Chief had that nullified the lynch, huh. Two of those in the game - glad you held on to it, that could have ended the game sooner, and not in a good way. That speaks well of you, if you really have that.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

where are you getting the 12% from Commo?

From this....


5. saldana - Lightbringer - Lynched Day Two - 80% Chance at death
15. Raiders Army - Lightbringer - Lynched Day Four - 80% Chance at death
8. MrBug708 - Lightbringer - Adept - Lynched Day Five - 80% Chance at death
16. Chief Rum - Lightbringer - Scientist - Killed by Werecrocodile, Day Seven Lynch - 60% Chance at death Due to light Charm
20. mauboy1 - Lighgtbringer - Sheriff - Lynched Day Nine - 80% Chance at death
17. mckerney - Lightbringer - Martyr - Lynched Day Ten - 80% Chance at death
19. Commo Soldier - Lightbringer - Lynched Day Eleven - 60% Chance at death Due to light Charm

.8*.8*.8*.6*.8*.8*.6 = 11.79648% Chance no one survives.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

I think getting more information out there can't hurt the village.

The item I currently have, and started the game with, is a dark charm. While I've been worried about it getting taken by the wolves if I was nightkilled, I haven't had enough faith in anyone to see that it is better off in someone else's hands.

The dark charm, that is what tainted the flame when EF got lynched.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I have a light charm so I'm 40% at surviving tonight, so I'd say there is a possibility of the items being in play. Why are you fishing for items when you can easily wait less than 24 hours.

That's good that you have that at this point. If somehow I'm really making a mistake maybe we'll finally get a second chance.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Wow, that's what Chief had that nullified the lynch, huh. Two of those in the game - glad you held on to it, that could have ended the game sooner, and not in a good way. That speaks well of you, if you really have that.

Or poorly because why would a villager have a dark charm? I'm a villager and got the light charm a dark one would do me no good.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Autumn

That's good that you have that at this point. If somehow I'm really making a mistake maybe we'll finally get a second chance.

We're going to end up 1-1 even if the flame helps us out since I'm guessing there's no blocking a nightkill given our current situation.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

The Tinkerer – You will instantly know the Lightbringer powers of any object in your hand. You will not know how they can be used by Servants of the Red Death, just how your side can use them

This made me think that the charm, even though it was dark, has both a good guy and bad guy power.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

That's good that you have that at this point. If somehow I'm really making a mistake maybe we'll finally get a second chance.

What do you mean. This is it. Either way if I make it one of us is night killed and it goes to the one v. one mechanic. There is nothing after this vote, just the wolf picking who they want to go against. Knowing what items we have left could be a determination who is NK'd I think J23 made a slip at the 11th hour and you may give him a pass.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

We're going to end up 1-1 even if the flame helps us out since I'm guessing there's no blocking a nightkill given our current situation.

Oh, well that's true. Damn. This past day is when we needed that die roll.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

What do you mean. This is it. Either way if I make it one of us is night killed and it goes to the one v. one mechanic. There is nothing after this vote, just the wolf picking who they want to go against. Knowing what items we have left could be a determination who is NK'd I think J23 made a slip at the 11th hour and you may give him a pass.

Why would I hold onto a dark charm as a wolf rather than passing it to EF or Narc before they were due to be lynched?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

What do you mean. This is it. Either way if I make it one of us is night killed and it goes to the one v. one mechanic. There is nothing after this vote, just the wolf picking who they want to go against. Knowing what items we have left could be a determination who is NK'd I think J23 made a slip at the 11th hour and you may give him a pass.

Unless I"m missing something, when it goes to 1-1 the wolves win. Is there a different mechanic in this game?

But you're right, I was just thinking if we missed the lynch we'd get to do it again, but you guys are right, that would only be if we stopped a night kill.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

This made me think that the charm, even though it was dark, has both a good guy and bad guy power.

Why would that make you think anything of that. It could come back saying our side can't use the dark charm. Are you trying to say now you are the Tinkerer?

I think we should all vote night fall and get this over with unless you are not certain. If we are all here and you to are certain you want to lynch a villager lets bring on the flame. I've said pretty much all I can if you don't believe me then it is the wolves probable victory.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

In order to win, the Lightbringers must kill every Servant of the Red Death. The Servants must have more than the # of Lightbringers (instead of the usual 1:1 ratio), and they must kill or convert every Exorcist and Minister as well. If, at the end of the game, there is one Servant and one Lightbringer left, a special rule will occur to see who wins based on roles. Lightbringers are no chumps.

The based on roles bit makes me think we lose if we don't get it right.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

Why would I hold onto a dark charm as a wolf rather than passing it to EF or Narc before they were due to be lynched?

I'll tell you why. Maybe you thought it would be EF lynched over Narc and kept it because EF had one and were going to pass it that night. Instead Narc had his own plans to save EF and since he already had one it made no sense in passing it.

[Autumn]

Wow, I had no idea. Too bad I don't have a nice juicy role, in case you're the wolfman, J23!

Let's not make it 1-1 then. I don't like our chances there.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

In order to win, the Lightbringers must kill every Servant of the Red Death. The Servants must have more than the # of Lightbringers (instead of the usual 1:1 ratio), and they must kill or convert every Exorcist and Minister as well. If, at the end of the game, there is one Servant and one Lightbringer left, a special rule will occur to see who wins based on roles. Lightbringers are no chumps.

There are many items in this game, and every player will begin with a random item, even Servants. The only person who brings items into the game, however, is the Scientist. Each night, once per item, you may pass an item to a person of your choice, just pm me and let me know. This is processed when Night Actions are processed, but it does not count as a Night Action. Items are passed as the last thing during the evening. Items on a dead person are collected by the Servants.

Some items are obvious – Charms of Protection Against Shapeshifters or Colt Peacemaker. Other items have unknown or more nefarious uses, and you may not immediately know what they all do. There might even be red herrings

Not all Servants may be able to pm each other. There are no hidden Lightbringer roles beyond the Exorcized. There may be more than one of each role. When they are killed, Servants of the Red Death will have both their title and their role and abilities posted in the thread. You are experienced enough that you know what a creature is and all about it.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Unless I"m missing something, when it goes to 1-1 the wolves win. Is there a different mechanic in this game?

But you're right, I was just thinking if we missed the lynch we'd get to do it again, but you guys are right, that would only be if we stopped a night kill.

This rule.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Why would that make you think anything of that. It could come back saying our side can't use the dark charm. Are you trying to say now you are the Tinkerer?

I think we should all vote night fall and get this over with unless you are not certain. If we are all here and you to are certain you want to lynch a villager lets bring on the flame. I've said pretty much all I can if you don't believe me then it is the wolves probable victory.

I'm not claiming to be the tinkerer, and I find it odd that you took what I wrote to be that kind of declaration. I don't think taking something out of the rules and making an assumption based on it is particularly far fetched.

Also, if I was certain who the wolf was, I'd have voted nightfall already.

[Autumn]

This is pretty exciting stuff, but I do need to go to bed. J23, I'm leaving it up to you. If you're set on your vote I don't mind nightfalling, but I'm perfectly fine just going to bed. I can't imagine changing my mind, but you never know. One of you guys might say something smart, or stupid ;-)

[J23]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I'll tell you why. Maybe you thought it would be EF lynched over Narc and kept it because EF had one and were going to pass it that night. Instead Narc had his own plans to save EF and since he already had one it made no sense in passing it.

If EF had one, why wouldn't I have passed it to Narc all the same? He clearly was under more pressure than I was to get lynched. I'm having a really hard time trying to figure out your logic here.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

I'm not claiming to be the tinkerer, and I find it odd that you took what I wrote to be that kind of declaration. I don't think taking something out of the rules and making an assumption based on it is particularly far fetched.

Also, if I was certain who the wolf was, I'd have voted nightfall already.

What part of the tinkers role makes you think it can be used for both good and evil then. I take it to mean it just told the tinkerer, which it appears is not in this game then, how we can use the item. Does not have to mean that we can use the item. I was just asking if you were because of your quoting.

[J23]

I'm going to give it some time to digest before going nightfall. Sorry to disappoint people that might be staying up to watch.

[Autumn]

Yes, sorry to our audience. I'm heading out then.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

If EF had one, why wouldn't I have passed it to Narc all the same? He clearly was under more pressure than I was to get lynched. I'm having a really hard time trying to figure out your logic here.

I don't know why, maybe chief created it and you got it after he died, who knows. It is crazy it is down to this, I'm thinking it is you because how else are you alive. Then again I'm thinking it could be Autumn because well that is who I thought it was yesterday, I guess I may have to really review things. Yesterday to start I was certain it was dubb or McKerney and you and Autumn were good, now I'm just baffled.

[Commo_Soldier]

I guess it will come down to tomorrow. Kickoff will begin at 10pm EST and post game will take place shortly their afterwards.

[Commo_Soldier]

237 more post to reach #5 all time, we can do it.

[Abe Sargent]

Yeah we can - top five baby!

Ah, but I don;t want to knock out Mine Wars....