WW CXXXIX - The Red Death II - GAME OVER, SERVANTS WIN

[Abe Sargent]

So....NO MORE POSTS,

[mckerney]

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by mckerney

I heart this post.

[Commo_Soldier]

So I just finished a presentation, went up to bed, and was thinking more about this. To me right now it is fairly likely J23 is the wolf, but I'm curious what I need to do to convince you that I'm not the wolf. I find it interesting that I'm going to be lynched because I'm new to this and because I'm new I must be a wolf making a mistake by being so adamant in my beliefs. If I can't convince though I thought of a crazy Idea. What about a tie? Not a three way, that would just be really stupid, but what about a two way? If there is nothing I can do to prove I'm a villager, which I feel I've made my case I am, the other villager between the two of you could make this a tie between myself and the other person. It does have a risk though, if a tie means no lynch, but if it is double lynch, village wins. I'd rather it not come to that, but it is an option.

[Commo_Soldier]

Woke up early to try and get some analysis in before work. So far I've looked at voting history, it is hard to differentiate between the two of you because it seemed like most of the time you were on the same person, a few things stuck out though.

Day 3 - Zinto Lynch - All of us were on Zinto, but Autumn came on somewhat late to bring Zinto to within one of Thomakal. I'm not sure a wolf does this as it basically help set up an original wolf as it was too late for J23 to move over without getting mass suspicion when people were already voting him.

Day 4 - Autumn is on RA early and never moves, not too good, will have to look into that while J23 goes onto EF and helps move him to the lead. With Narcs vote just before him it is a really big lead, only known to wolves, if his was +3.

Day 5 - Autumn moves from EF to Bug late with J23, Narc, and myself already on him. At the time of movement it put Bug up by two over EF in the villages eyes at the moment but by then Narc is already a convert and Bug was already up 3. Not sure Autumn moves knowing this.

Day 7 - The last day I can get much good out of voting. EF comes on and votes Mau, I'm guessing trying to use his reveal to move the vote. J23 is on right after and moves his vote. Chief also comes on at the same time as J23 and switches to Mau before EF moves to dubb. Not sure if J23s move was one to try and save the powerful wolf one more day or not.

Now I'll run through the rest of the thread.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

So I just finished a presentation, went up to bed, and was thinking more about this. To me right now it is fairly likely J23 is the wolf, but I'm curious what I need to do to convince you that I'm not the wolf. I find it interesting that I'm going to be lynched because I'm new to this and because I'm new I must be a wolf making a mistake by being so adamant in my beliefs. If I can't convince though I thought of a crazy Idea. What about a tie? Not a three way, that would just be really stupid, but what about a two way? If there is nothing I can do to prove I'm a villager, which I feel I've made my case I am, the other villager between the two of you could make this a tie between myself and the other person. It does have a risk though, if a tie means no lynch, but if it is double lynch, village wins. I'd rather it not come to that, but it is an option.

A tie is an interesting proposal, and one I hadn't thought of. I'll have to think about it, as if it's a no lynch, we're back to the 1-1 showdown.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I think you are slightly more likely to be a wolf now than McKerney.

This post was directed as Autumn last night at 10:05pm EST. I'm curious why you've switched over to me as being the likely wolf since. From my perspective, it really looks like you're just trying to get traction on anyone you can rather than who you think the wolf actually is, which is what I'd expect the wolf to do.

[Commo_Soldier]

Some stuff I pulled after reading all of day one. Mainly getting stuff to this area to review later. I find it interesting that J23 was fairly talkative, maybe because he was on the block, but I don't recall much from him this game so we will see if it continues.

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Well, I'm out til about a half hour before deadline.

Don't vote for me!

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Just to make sure it gets captured

Unvote Bhlloy

Not sure why everyone is going towards mau after rereading the first few pages when he semi revealed. I'm going with my vote because it could have been a wolf on a bandwagon hoping to ensure a villager gets lynched and nothing strange happens.

Vote NTN

Originally Posted by Autumn

What did he say? I don't recall anything.

Originally Posted by J23

Vote mauboy

I'm vanilla, so if it ends up with me getting lynched, it's not a big deal, but I'd rather have a chance at lynching a wolf obviously, so I'm not about to vote myself.

Ties mean all those tied get lynched remember, which is probably a decidedly bad thing for day1 unless I'm missing some important strategy, so hopefully people are around to move a vote if needed.

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Dubb 2 - thomkal, mauboy
NTN 4 - dzilla, grammaticus, Danny, Commo
Mauboy 6 - hoops, chief rum, bhlloy, Eaglefan, mckerney, j23
J23 7 - autumn, zinto, sndvls, saldana, jackal, CrimsonFox, Lathum
Bhlloy 2 - ntndeacon, dubb
Lathum 1 - narc
crimson fox 1 - mrbug

Originally Posted by bhlloy

ugh... J23 I may have to push you ahead even further now

Originally Posted by J23

unvote mauboy
vote ntn

Originally Posted by J23

The votes are now tied between NtN and myself, so someone should go about burying one of us. There won't be any last minute reveal from me, but I will tell what my item is if it appears I'm about to bite it unless someone has a good reason for me not to.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Dubb 2 - thomkal
NTN 7 - dzilla, grammaticus, Danny, Commo, bhlloy, mauboy. j23
Mauboy 4 - hoops, chief rum, Eaglefan, mckerney
J23 7 - autumn, zinto, sndvls, saldana, jackal, CrimsonFox, Lathum
Bhlloy 2 - ntndeacon, dubb
Lathum 1 - narc
crimson fox 1 - mrbug

Originally Posted by J23

I was planning on unvoting Ntn right before deadline if there wasn't any movement. I'm fairly sure there will be to bury either myself or Ntn though.

Btw, thoughts on whether to share what item I'm holding if I'm the lead lynch candidate right at deadline? I'm wondering if I should since it's a 20% chance that I don't get toasted someone mentioned?

Originally Posted by dubb93

Someone please quickly give me the recap of the NtN argument.

Originally Posted by J23

I don't think there's really an argument out there for either of us Dubb.

Originally Posted by J23

For what it's worth, I agree w/ this sentiment, which is why I avoided voting for him earlier.

That being said, I know I'm a villager, and I'm not sure he is, so I have a hard time letting myself get lynched for that reason alone.

Originally Posted by Autumn

My impression was he was just another guy that had some votes that could be a contender once bhlloy was out of the running ( and since people seemed to feel better about Mauboy for some reason). I don't remember why he got any votes to begin with. But that's the case for just about everybody.

Originally Posted by Autumn

What about the possibility that NTN has a role? He said earlier today he wouldn't be on this evening, so can't quite fault him for being quiet.

I hate to defend anyone since if he's bad you'll all scowl at me. But i think it's bad practice to blindly lynch people who aren't around to reveal.

Originally Posted by Autumn

8-7 NTN

I'll switch to give more space if no one else is moving.

Originally Posted by J23

Ntn is up by a vote atm if the vote counts earlier were correct.

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I think it's 8-7

Originally Posted by Autumn

unvote j23
vote ntn

Originally Posted by Autumn

Just in case we have a double voter on J23 or something like that. I think it's a bad idea to kill the absent guy, but I don't think a tie is better.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Somebody can come out and say they had the best gut call ever or something, but it seems to me we just got very lucky. I was pushing not to lynch him, so I know I'll get the squinty eye for that, but I stand by the idea that it's not smart to lynch people who can't reveal.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Now do we think another wolf came to his support late.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Okay because it was your repeated pushes and the fact that J23 came back and started talking that made me switch for sure.

Originally Posted by Autumn

What did you see tha tmade you suspect though? I can't imagine he posted enough to leave us much evidence, but it would be sweet if he did.

Clearly he was part of a gropu then. I suspect some may be lone wolves, but we can expect his mate(s) at least knew he was going down.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Given how routinely wolves lay a wolf-wolf vote early in games nowadays, I don't think this says anything for Mauboy. It would look good for bhlloy if we didn't already know about him ;-)

Originally Posted by Autumn

Unless J23 is a wolf too ;-)

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I'm not so sure about this though. The run started kind of late and happened extremely quick. If anyone switched to NTN and was a wolf the only person I'd suspect is Autumn.

Originally Posted by J23

I'm not sure you play the Danny role given that the village knows there's a high chance of conversion. Especially putting your cunning out there.

Originally Posted by Autumn

It's perfectly valid, certainly my vote was the classic meaningless pile on at the last second.

However ... in all honesty if I was a wolf I'd stay right where I was, which I wouldn't have caught flak for, and hope against all hope that someone screws up and ties things. There would have been a decent chance of that, and I wouldn't have moved and ruined that.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I don't think that's what he's arguing, but certainly we have to keep it in perspective. For all we know he had one wolf mate, who wasn't even on tonight. We don't want to put blinders on.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

This got me to go back as I thought someone stated we should maybe tie the vote, which I'm not sure how anyone would think that is good idea.



In my looking back I did find this however.



I was not a fan of the move to switch late and then that last sentence really gets me know. So basically DZ is stating no one should have voted for NTN and tie it back up because a wolf would do that. Interesting.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I believe Thomkal suggested tying it up might be good, which I thought was strange at the time.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Question for the group, who got this item? Based on the rules, I'd assume it is a wolf, do we believe that to be the case?

Originally Posted by Autumn

I have not received any new items.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm out 'til tomorrow afternoon. See y'all.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Yes, it was a crazy day, now that it is deadline for night actions I can go to bed. Just wanted to get out in the off chance I'm NK'd, but more to just get it out. I passed a charm to Bholly, hopefully it will help keep you safe.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Ok, so I guess that is why I still have my item. I'm not sure what the others think of that, but I think we are close to another wolf otherwise I don't see why they didn't keep him alive.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

This post was directed as Autumn last night at 10:05pm EST. I'm curious why you've switched over to me as being the likely wolf since. From my perspective, it really looks like you're just trying to get traction on anyone you can rather than who you think the wolf actually is, which is what I'd expect the wolf to do.

I thought I had stated. I moved towards you because I don't see anyway you are alive unless you are the wolf. Why would the wolf leave the person no one was suspecting alive, that puts him in extreme danger. Then there is the fact you have a dark charm, I don't think a villager started with the item. Oh and your trying to see what items everyone had left, that could be a mechanic in if the village wins and the wolf might NK that person if the villager survives today.

[Autumn]

I'm glad to see you digging into stuff, Commo. But remember day one, all of us were villagers, unless you think there four beginning wolves and one convert (Narcizo).

[Autumn]

And I agree J23, the wolf has to remain flexible in this position, willing to go in whichever direction he can get someone to go. Commo had been all about Mckerney most of the day yesterday, when Mckerney was the other candidate. Once you guys started talking about me he switched, and then today once you voted him, he's got to hope he can stir me onto you. I expect he'll switch back to me if that doesn't work ;-)

This is a case where if J23 is the wolf I'm willing to lose it. It would be crazy to give Commo the win at this point. If J23 was converted, despite being on the hotseat day 1, and has managed to give so little evidence up to this point, and give no wolf vibe to me in his posts, and killed Dubb last night instead of me or Commo, well hat's off to him. The village usually kills itself in these situations by overthinking. I'm never alive at this point, but it's always obvious to me watching who the wolf is, and so I don't want to overlook the obvious here.

I don't think a tie makes sense. I mean it makes sense for each of us individually, I know we'll get a win if I tie you two up. But the villager among you has to think the same thing, about the two of us, and we can't have a three way tie. And lastly if the wolf convinces the two villagers to tie themselves then he wins, even if it's a no lynch. So I'm not going to be willing to tie myself in the vote and possibly give the game away.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I thought I had stated. I moved towards you because I don't see anyway you are alive unless you are the wolf. Why would the wolf leave the person no one was suspecting alive, that puts him in extreme danger. Then there is the fact you have a dark charm, I don't think a villager started with the item. Oh and your trying to see what items everyone had left, that could be a mechanic in if the village wins and the wolf might NK that person if the villager survives today.

Fair enough. I expected to be the night kill last night (and the night before, actually).

As for the dark charm, I could understand you not believing me, but if I have one, I can't see how you can't think I'd have given it to Narcizo when he and EF were going to be lynched in the next two days.

[Commo_Soldier]

Day 2 interesting posts. One thing that really sticks out, sure enough J23 comes on, sorry guys, limited access makes just that post and his vote. Also mentioned is how people distrust this type of thing, will see if this continues or not.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Dola, maybe it is just me, but I would have thought being the only villager that came out and said they were roled, kind of surprised the BG didn't protect him.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I think it's a bit doubtful arguing that someone who voted NTN is a decent candidate for today. Obviously a wolf could have voted for NTN later on but does it looks as though dubb is pushing it to the extent that they are more likely to be wolves than people who didn't vote NTN. People are quick to point out the times when a wolf has voted a wolf forgetting the 19 times out of 20 when they voted villager. So in-terms of starting wolves I won't be looking at NTN voters for a while yet.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I agree, I really want to vote DZ today, but would be open to voting dubb as well. Will hold off for a few hours until more people come on and the conversation starts.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Well, I'm really off to bed now, had to stick around once I saw that my item didn't get passed.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I disagree about being least valuable role as it happens. One night kill (with the chance of not killing and thus clearing a good guy) is pretty useful for the village as I discovered, well, whenever it was. It can help clear up voting history and whatnot. I used to think that villager night kills were more damaging than helpful but my eyes have been opened. Any kill not controlled by the wolves is for the good.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

So we have Saldana, Dubb and Autumn seemingly going the passive defensive route of questioning why people are creating a run on NTN. Unfortunately for neat solutions I don't really see any of them going that route if they are wolf-buddies with NTN. Admittedly there might only be two or three wolves so they would want to protect NTN and I think with a minimal ability to influence the vote more than questioning the NTN vote would be a way to do it but it just seems a bit too overt to be a likely option for an experienced wolf.

Originally Posted by dubb93

I'm almost starting to wonder if Narc, who voted Lathum of all people and kept his vote there even after Lathum claimed to be roled, doesn't have an agenda he is pushing here.

Originally Posted by saldana

again, i dont expect not to take some heat today, which is fine, but for my money, i will be looking at the people that came off of Bholloy after his reveal and DIDNT go to NTN

i put my vote on J23 and left it there (after my token dubb vote)...i didnt make any move to save anyone or hang anyone...the people that came off Bholloy and went to either mau or j23 are the people that i think need the closest examination today.

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

Dammit, I did it again. Sorry, I'll delete my mech post.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

The problem is you didn't really say that, you just said that if someone voted NTN to tie it back up, to create confusion, would be a wolf move. The problem with that is we can't lynch NTN without tying it back up. I think this was your play to try and end the NTN voting run. The only thing that gives me pause is I don't see why, if you were concerned about a tie vote, you didn't put it on J23. I can only guess it is because that would have brought you even more heat.




I'm not following what Saldana was trying to do there either, not sure how showing how people are voting for you is any condemnation on your part. Frankly I can't see why our votes are not all poured onto, spread out of course, not a runaway, either Dubb, Saldana, or DZ today.

That said I don't think Saldana gets that defensive as a wolf, could happen, but to me, even with NTN having cunning, it is just too much heat to put on yourself for a day one kill. I'm really torn about voting Dubb or DZ as I'm not high on either as being a villager, the thing that gets me into voting DZ though is coming off of NTN after RA had shown up and could have cast a deciding vote. Then not only after coming off when question making a comment how the move was, in essence, to not make confusion who our lynch choice should be. I get the whole we can't all come off the tie at the end, but if you would have waited 10 minutes, and did it 15 minutes to deadline you would have seen the vote was no longer tied.

Vote DZ

Originally Posted by Autumn

Catching up after class. First of all I just want to say I'm liking all the good arguments out there. It feels like good old fashioned WW with a lot of people getting involved in the analysis.

I actually like what Saldana found there with Jackal. It is indeed interesting that Jackal jumped from Mauboy to J23 just when Mauboy was getting heat. And if I remember correctly that was just after I made a comment wondering why suddenly Mauboy was getting a lot of votes instead of J23, when J23 had been the guy in the lead behind Bhlloy. If Mau is a wolf, Jackal may have been using that as a convenient excuse to move off of him when it was getting.

Alternately my original thought, and the reason I stayed with J23, was that it seemed like J23, who was the natural person to move to after bhlloy - being in the lead, being present, and having admitted to having no role - was not getting any votes. That makes me want to look at J23 again. Obviously these two theories are incompatible. It would mean a J23 wolf paired with at least one of those Mauboy voters.

A possible wolf/wolf runoff was also a reason dzilla might have not voted J23 after unvoting. But I always try to throw out theories that suggest I now know all of the wolves.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think it's also possible that their night action has a % chance to convert, and if that fails, kills. We've seen that in other games. So a kill may just mean a failed conversion. But I think in this game it's also possible there's a possibility of both in one night.

Originally Posted by Danny

Vote Autumn

Originally Posted by Danny

This vote doesn't necessarily need to stick here, but I am laying it down anyway. He's not one of the players with a solid day 1 vote and I have a gut feeling about him. Its early and this could easily chance though.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Boy, deja vu all over again. Remember how well that last gut read went, Danny? lol

I can't fault a vote on me, anyone who makes a last minute switch to a wolf that doesn't really change the vote is going to get a look, for sure. I don't think I make that move if I'm a wolf, but still, it's legit.

I think we benefit more from seeing who didn't vote NTN but could of, though. We have quite a few of those to go by.

Originally Posted by Autumn

dola

I think prime wolf voting time is not anywhere near the deadline. When I'm a wolf I feel like the day is done an hour or two before deadline, as making any moves then is just too dangerous. So I like to look back at more "mid day" moves to save wolves.

Originally Posted by dzilla77

Its clear that your mind is made up and you're trying to sell your reasoning to the rest of the group. I am a villager. When that is revealed by the cleansing flame, you will begin to rise on the list of suspicious characters.

I will withhold my vote for now, as it will likely be for self preservation (if that's even possible).

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

I'm in no way set on anyone, but my gut is worst on you now. I'll relook over everything when I get home two hours to deadline and adjust as needed, but to best gauge things I want to at least have a vote in during the day.

Originally Posted by Zinto

A big chance I may slip under the radar not on purpose though more of a case that school is slowly beginning to kick my butt.

Originally Posted by Zinto

Hopefully I can get a couple hours each day to delve into the game and post my thoughts though(other then dumb Mondays)

Originally Posted by Narcizo

My radar normally has people who I don't think have contributed much the day before on it for the first few days. :shurg:

I'm not getting Danny's beef with Autumn - seems that he's been talking sense to me so far. Given lack of presence and dodgy voting record I'm going to

Vote Mckerney

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am wondering why no one has talked about ntn voting for Mau early as being a good point or a bad point for Mau. If you believe as some have said that the Red Death wouldn't place an early vote on each other since they could just convert later in the game then Mau looks better but if you think that the Red Death would then Mau looks slightly worse.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I said last night that I think NTN's vote on Mauboy is inconclusive, for the reasons you state, that it's early enough to simply be a wolf on wolf vote.

Originally Posted by Narcizo

For what it's worth (nothing, I'll readily agree) if I had to vote for a current candidate I'd probably plump for mau. He said something about me not looming at him yesterday which just struck me as being the sort of thing a wolf-mau might say. But apart from that I've not got that much to pin on him. But despite my doubts about dubb's arguments I'm not really seeing him being a wolf. Ditto Saldana and I think it's quite a stretch seeing Dzilla doing what he did as a wolf. Oh and I'm not seeing the argument against Autumn. Well, ok I am but I really don't see it as be enough to warrant a vote at this stage.

Originally Posted by J23

First off, I'm pretty slammed at work, so I probably won't be able to contribute much today until closer to deadline, if much then. Anyway...

I understood your vote yesterday Autumn, and I actually think the move at the end to bury ntn is a good thing since we don't know what kind of voting manipulation might be in play. However, I'm really skeptical about your wolf/wolf theory for yesterday when a common thread throughout the discussions has been about he obvious conversion mechanics in place for this game. Given those mechanics, how many wolves do you think started this game? Out of the 24 people that started, you think we lucked into picking two wolves as the run-off candidates? On top of that you're saying that Dzilla would be a third wolf linked to the wolf/wolf run-off? That's just getting a bit ridiculous.

As for my moving my vote onto mau before ntn that someone brought up, I didn't want to pile on a guy that is often voted early due to not being around as much. It's why I originally put my vote on bhlloy rather than him as well (and I think I mentioned that last night as well).

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

well saldana and dubb did themselves no favors yesterday and somewhat continue that trend today.

I do kinda agree with the autumn thing too.

for now,

vote saldana

Originally Posted by Autumn

When do you not agree with the autumn thing?

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

What is the case on mckerney, other than casting a later vote yesterday?

Originally Posted by Autumn

My case is that he's one of the votes that came after bhlloy revealed, that wasn't on NTN. His was a key vote to push Mauboy up into contention instead. I haven't had time to look at what else he's been up to.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

No F-ing way Raiders was a wolf yesterday.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

well his excuse was "I forgot I was playing and I don't check the site much." I usually ignore excuses but that one is so weird I believe it.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Weird? In my experience that happens to about a half a dozen people per game. This game was actually unusual for everyone showing up!

Originally Posted by Danny

Unvote Autumn

Originally Posted by Danny

Autumn is too helpful of a villager for me to vote him now without much of a reason. I still have my eye on him though

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

if you convert me, autumn, I won't vote for you. how's that?

Originally Posted by Danny

If you don't vote Autumn then I will have to vote you.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Sorry, I'm just vanilla, I can't convert wolves back ;-)

Originally Posted by Autumn

Werewolf, the game where you start worrying when people agree with you.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

To get it a little less of a runaway since I don't mind voting for either.
dz
mckerney

Originally Posted by Autumn

Another place I like to keep a hairy eyeball is in the first few people who move off a person after reveal. I know as a wolf you don't want to look like you were reluctant to move off a roled villager, so I think wolves tend to be among the first to jump ship. in this case, Saldana, Jackal and Commo were the first off, just for posterity's sake.

Originally Posted by saldana

that is a horrible assumption...the only thing that it means is that I was in the thread when he made the reveal and was able to make the change

Originally Posted by Danny

I agree

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I too agree bad reasoning Autumn

Originally Posted by Autumn

It's not an assumption, it's just a possible place to look for wolves. Obviously timing, when people are in thread, whether their vote is on that person, all play into it.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think you guys are misunderstanding me. I'm not saying those people are wolves, or that they have to be wolves. I'm saying, just like we look at say second voters early in a day, or last minute switches, looking at the first movers after a reveal can be illuminating. That's all. I like to keep track of who it is, as it can be one more piece in the pile of circumstantial evidence.

Originally Posted by Danny

I am strongly considering a switch back to Autumn

Originally Posted by Danny

I still completely disagree. I think it simply shows who was reading the thread first. My vote wasn't on Dzilla, but if it was I would have switched off ASAP after his reveal if it was.

Originally Posted by Autumn

lol, this isn't old enough news for you? Every game I make a bunch of thoughts out loud about what might or might not be wolf behavior, then people start jumping on me for thinking out loud. I could write a script to play WW for me.

Originally Posted by dubb93

Hey, I think I was in this script last game.

Originally Posted by Autumn

In a world with only villagers, it would show that absolutely. In a world with wolves, it is also slightly skewed by the needs of the wolves to look like good villagers. A good villager is one who makes sure roled villagers don't get killed, ASAP. So among good villagers, villagers who are in thread at the time, early moves will usually also include wolves who are in thread at the time. A wolf is never going to hang around in thread and not move off a reveal, is basically my point.

Originally Posted by Autumn

I've considered in the past doing a "FOFC Werewolf" Werewolf game, where the roles are all people who play here. Clearly my ability would be to spout nonsense and distract the village.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I actually side with Autumn on his "wolves move off faster" because they are playing with complete info in terms of wolf/villager and thus are more rapid to "believe" a reveal. Villagers, who don't know anything basically, are more likely to question in thread or digest the reveal internally before moving off the player.

Certainly not 100% true, but I think there is something to what Autumn suggested.

And, if I was a cruel man, I would now move my vote to Autumn just to jerk his chain a little bit.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

unvote autumn

That vote was a joke post anyway but I'm rethinking. Maybe everyone should reveal and then we can vote.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Damn, we're turning up roles left and right.

And just so people can amuse themselves by beating me with my own words...

unvote mckerney
vote the jackal

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Unvote McKerney
Vote Jackal

Might switch back, but I have to relook some things to see if I really believe the reveal. As for Jackal, just a gut and don't want a runaway.

Originally Posted by dzilla77

I'm really waffling right now too. I am suprised J23 didn't get any run today either.

Re-reading, the thread now that I am not on the block, i'm not getting any real good feel for anybody on the block right now.

I am probably going to move, so someone convince me where to move.

Originally Posted by Thomkal

why not J23? Because mathematically the odds are very much against it-and I can't see the servants leaving both of them in a vulnerable position if a double lynch took place-which almost did. J23 would have revealed as something other than villager to get votes off him.

Originally Posted by Autumn

J23 is on my list but hasn't gotten any votes. I mentioned him a few times, but the idea that we had two wolves on the block yesterday is admittedly a hard one for people to swallow.

I don't really have anything to say on those other two at all. There's a lot of players here! Most likely the wolves are just hiding in those that aren't getting attention though, you're right.

Originally Posted by J23

I'm here, haven't voted, and just caught up with the thread. Don't know why I haven't had more scrutiny today, but it's not like there was a good reason for voting me yesterday either.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

saldana 6 - eaglefan (662) SnDvls (789) mauboy (851) Lathum (860) crimsonfox (861) mckerney (874)
mckerney 2 - narcizo (645) mrbug (758)
lathum 4 - dubb (660) jackal (768) raiders (794) thomkal (905)
jackal 3 - autumn (843) commo (908) saldana (921)
autumn 1 - grammaticus (779)
sndvls 2 - hoops (928) danny (938)

Originally Posted by J23

I think the vote for sndvls is for being utr, but I'm mostly guessing.

Originally Posted by Zinto

I am extremely behind. I passed out and just got back on. Without knowing anything that has happened so far I will vote for...

Vote The Jackal

Originally Posted by Autumn

This game is crazy.

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

So are people really that convinced Saldana would come out and be so adamant that we find someone other than NTN as a wolf. I just can't see that happening so early as it is such a dangerous move. Do people have other reasons, or is that the big thing?

Originally Posted by Autumn

We've had two reveals, Chief, Dzilla and Mckerney.

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

gramma you want to change off autumn yet?

I still say we should dogpile onto bug.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Why dogpile on bug?

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Yes, why

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

he's been on my utr list since the beginning with his joke vote on me with the excuse of "revenge from two games ago". THen never switched off that vote making it throwaway. Today he is again utr. He came in earlier, through out a cryptic comment AFTER mckerney's reveal yet did not move off.

Originally Posted by Abe Sargent

You've got to send mail to get mail

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'm glad to see you digging into stuff, Commo. But remember day one, all of us were villagers, unless you think there four beginning wolves and one convert (Narcizo).

No, wanted to get a baseline of everyone as we all should have been villagers. Deviation from that baseline may mean conversion.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

And I agree J23, the wolf has to remain flexible in this position, willing to go in whichever direction he can get someone to go. Commo had been all about Mckerney most of the day yesterday, when Mckerney was the other candidate. Once you guys started talking about me he switched, and then today once you voted him, he's got to hope he can stir me onto you. I expect he'll switch back to me if that doesn't work ;-)

This is a case where if J23 is the wolf I'm willing to lose it. It would be crazy to give Commo the win at this point. If J23 was converted, despite being on the hotseat day 1, and has managed to give so little evidence up to this point, and give no wolf vibe to me in his posts, and killed Dubb last night instead of me or Commo, well hat's off to him. The village usually kills itself in these situations by overthinking. I'm never alive at this point, but it's always obvious to me watching who the wolf is, and so I don't want to overlook the obvious here.

I don't think a tie makes sense. I mean it makes sense for each of us individually, I know we'll get a win if I tie you two up. But the villager among you has to think the same thing, about the two of us, and we can't have a three way tie. And lastly if the wolf convinces the two villagers to tie themselves then he wins, even if it's a no lynch. So I'm not going to be willing to tie myself in the vote and possibly give the game away.

When he was the other candidate part I'm not following as I cast the first vote of the day. I stated I was starting to get different feelings and made it somewhat clear I was thinking of moving to you, it was not just out of the blue.

As for J23, I'm not sure why you'd ever want to give the game away, could it be he has not made any wolfish sounding posts because he is UTR? Dubb was surprised he was still alive as was I. The fact he didn't die yesterday when you stated you or dubb would have killed him is beyond me, not sure why you think I leave him alive. As for switching to you, I'd need alot of evidence based on the past 10 hours.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

No, wanted to get a baseline of everyone as we all should have been villagers. Deviation from that baseline may mean conversion.

I see, that makes sense then. I didn't dig back that far, so that's good to see.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

Fair enough. I expected to be the night kill last night (and the night before, actually).

As for the dark charm, I could understand you not believing me, but if I have one, I can't see how you can't think I'd have given it to Narcizo when he and EF were going to be lynched in the next two days.

I think you would have given the opportunity, problem is I don't know when you got it. As I stated I can't see why you even have it. In my eyes that is like a villager starting off with the scan good charm, why does he need it when he will already scan good.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I see, that makes sense then. I didn't dig back that far, so that's good to see.

It has been thus far about 1/3 of the way through the thread and J23 has only talked when he was in danger.

[Commo_Soldier]

As for switching I'd be more than willing to vote nightfall after I go through every day, but I will have to finish when I get back from work. I just can't see J23 still being alive at this point if Dubb, you, or me were the wolves. No one was suspecting him so that just makes it a two person race, if I'm a wolf I want it to be a three person race as it is better odds for me. Plus the whole charm thing and fishing for items, it was not needed the game is ending soon that info will come out very shortly. I may be able to get through one more day before I leave, but the rest will have to wait.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

When he was the other candidate part I'm not following as I cast the first vote of the day. I stated I was starting to get different feelings and made it somewhat clear I was thinking of moving to you, it was not just out of the blue.

As for J23, I'm not sure why you'd ever want to give the game away, could it be he has not made any wolfish sounding posts because he is UTR? Dubb was surprised he was still alive as was I. The fact he didn't die yesterday when you stated you or dubb would have killed him is beyond me, not sure why you think I leave him alive. As for switching to you, I'd need alot of evidence based on the past 10 hours.

He could be a very UTR wolf, it's true. But it's very, very difficult to make it 11 days into a game and be UTR, not unless you don't post at all.

I think you would leave J23 alive, if you were the wolf, because otherwise you would be faced with the force that is Dubb. He was voting you before the deadline! No way you can leave someone that sure about you alive. You wouldn't be able to convince him to move, so it would be up to you to convince the other villager to vote Dubb, limiting your options.

[Commo_Soldier]

Dola, I wish there was more I could do to prove I'm a villager as it would suck to come this close to victory and lose because J23 has been non-controversial. As I quoted you earlier, and will again.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Werewolf, the game where you start worrying when people agree with you.

There is a reason I'm still alive as a villager after last night as every one of you said you'd vote for me, killing me is losing an relatively easy win for the wolves.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

He could be a very UTR wolf, it's true. But it's very, very difficult to make it 11 days into a game and be UTR, not unless you don't post at all.

I think you would leave J23 alive, if you were the wolf, because otherwise you would be faced with the force that is Dubb. He was voting you before the deadline! No way you can leave someone that sure about you alive. You wouldn't be able to convince him to move, so it would be up to you to convince the other villager to vote Dubb, limiting your options.

Normally yes, but think about it this way. Day 5 was the whole bug fiasco. after that we had two set lynches to bring it through 7 days. Then we lost a day. So Day 9 we have Mau to lynch because of his reveal. Then comes yesterday. Everyone is thinking me and McKerney are the top choices, so why would a wolf say anything. All the wolf has had to do was make it though day 4 at this point because everything else has been so obvious. So really the wolf only needed to be UTR for 3 days at the most.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

It has been thus far about 1/3 of the way through the thread and J23 has only talked when he was in danger.

I've talked every day giving my opinions and reasoning for my voting, and have only really been in "danger" on day 1. I'm not sure how you can even make this claim.

I don't post a ton in any game I'm in. Feel free to look back through to verify this, or ask Autumn, who has played a good number of games w/ me now. If the best argument you can make for voting me is a lack of excessive posting on day 11, I'm either a terrific wolf (which I'm not), or you're barking up the wrong tree.

[Commo_Soldier]

Dola, if I'm unable to convince you today Autumn, I ask that you at least vote for me because you think I'm really a wolf and not because I'm new and you think this is how a new player would play it. I may be new, but I'm not a child or unintelligent. With the way things have gone there is no reason for a wolf to be as outspoken as I have, things would have played themselves out. Although it would be fitting if I'm lynched with the way this game has played out and will probably go down in WW history, especially if the village looses this thing and J23 made an 11th hour slip.

[J23]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I think you would leave J23 alive, if you were the wolf, because otherwise you would be faced with the force that is Dubb. He was voting you before the deadline! No way you can leave someone that sure about you alive. You wouldn't be able to convince him to move, so it would be up to you to convince the other villager to vote Dubb, limiting your options.

This is why I'm hesitant to vote nightfall on Commo. I think if Autumn is the wolf here, he kills Dubb because this argument for Commo killing him is so obvious.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

I've talked every day giving my opinions and reasoning for my voting, and have only really been in "danger" on day 1. I'm not sure how you can even make this claim.

I don't post a ton in any game I'm in. Feel free to look back through to verify this, or ask Autumn, who has played a good number of games w/ me now. If the best argument you can make for voting me is a lack of excessive posting on day 11, I'm either a terrific wolf (which I'm not), or you're barking up the wrong tree.

Well 1/3 of the thread is through day two. You were in danger day one and really talkative. Morning of Day two you come on and say you will be limited making only that post and your vote post. That is why I made that comment. We will see as you do have a decent amount of posts, but not a ton considering how long you've survived.

As for best argument, that is not my real argument, it fits in with my argument. My argument is if either dubb, autumn, or myself are the wolves you were the NK last night. There is no getting around that for me. So why are you still here? Then you start asking for items, this information only helps a wolf because they either NK the person with the most dangerous items if they live or 2 vote for that person as they will surely get the other villager to follow them to save their own life. Not to mention I can't see how a villager has a dark charm when it really only helps the wolves. I think you slipped up today, if you hadn't asked about the items and mentioned your charm I would still have the alive part, while that is important, it can use more evidence.

[Autumn]

I can vouch that J23 is generally a quiet player, I have not been surprised at his amount of posting. Does that amount of posting make it easier for a wolf to slip by? Sure. But J23, I feel, has posted enough to make stands on things, give analysis, things that would make it possible to catch him out. I was more worried about Mckerney who generally only made a vote and didn't give a lot of reasoning for it. That's the sort of UTR wolf who sometimes wins these end games for sheer lack of evidence.

I will definitely keep looking at the things you find, Commo. But yes, I'm voting you because you've done a number of things that I feel could be wolf moves. I have not seen J23 do much of anything i could categorize like that. In addition J23 would have made a very odd N1 or N2 conversion given the voting at the time, whereas Commo, you would have been a clever choice.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

He could be a very UTR wolf, it's true. But it's very, very difficult to make it 11 days into a game and be UTR, not unless you don't post at all.

I think you would leave J23 alive, if you were the wolf, because otherwise you would be faced with the force that is Dubb. He was voting you before the deadline! No way you can leave someone that sure about you alive. You wouldn't be able to convince him to move, so it would be up to you to convince the other villager to vote Dubb, limiting your options.

Also I had no problems facing the "force" of dubb. He was voting me before the deadline, but that is not to say he would have voted me after. He said several days ago I'm the next person to lynch, not to worry about how I look at the end of the game because I'm not making it that far. Then yesterday he votes McKerney. If I were to kill anyone I kill J23 because he is the one person no one was talking about voting for, I wouldn't want to go up against that neither would you as it turns it into a two person race instead of a three person race.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by J23

This is why I'm hesitant to vote nightfall on Commo. I think if Autumn is the wolf here, he kills Dubb because this argument for Commo killing him is so obvious.

If I was the wolf I would definitely not pass up the chance to let Dubb go after Commo. He's like a pitbull when he gets on someone like that, and he likely would have voted nightfall right away.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I can vouch that J23 is generally a quiet player, I have not been surprised at his amount of posting. Does that amount of posting make it easier for a wolf to slip by? Sure. But J23, I feel, has posted enough to make stands on things, give analysis, things that would make it possible to catch him out. I was more worried about Mckerney who generally only made a vote and didn't give a lot of reasoning for it. That's the sort of UTR wolf who sometimes wins these end games for sheer lack of evidence.

I will definitely keep looking at the things you find, Commo. But yes, I'm voting you because you've done a number of things that I feel could be wolf moves. I have not seen J23 do much of anything i could categorize like that. In addition J23 would have made a very odd N1 or N2 conversion given the voting at the time, whereas Commo, you would have been a clever choice.

That may be the case for him, I will find out later today after I get off, should be home around 4 hours to deadline, plenty of time to finish up the review and make posts about it.

As for J23 and based on day one, I think we all make a good choice as we were all NTN voters. I mean really the voting was day one. We got a wolf why would the village go after an NTN voter shortly their after? While he got votes the fact he was on NTN would prevent people from going after him, or any wolf, for several days. In this case Day 4 is the day we start going after converts and the next day is when the craziness starts and our lynch choices seem sort of clear.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

If I was the wolf I would definitely not pass up the chance to let Dubb go after Commo. He's like a pitbull when he gets on someone like that, and he likely would have voted nightfall right away.

He probably would have looking at his votes this game, but why do I leave J23 alive? You and dubb wouldn't have, but I would why exactly?

The fact is Dubb made it clear on several occasions I was the choice for him, but saw that I was a villager and didn't vote for me. As I stated earlier, this is really looking like the Danny / Bug thing. Danny votes Bug before deadline then Danny dies setting bug up. Dubb votes Commo before deadline further setting up Commo. Seriously If I was a wolf I don't kill Dubb because I really don't think he votes for me. I kill J23 because Dubb voted for you yesterday and it is could be easy to get him on you.

[Commo_Soldier]

As usual, I'm going to leave for work here shortly, I will be checking from my phone, but won't comment much unless I really feel I need to, I'll reserve responding until I get back around 3pm PST.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

He probably would have looking at his votes this game, but why do I leave J23 alive? You and dubb wouldn't have, but I would why exactly?

The fact is Dubb made it clear on several occasions I was the choice for him, but saw that I was a villager and didn't vote for me. As I stated earlier, this is really looking like the Danny / Bug thing. Danny votes Bug before deadline then Danny dies setting bug up. Dubb votes Commo before deadline further setting up Commo. Seriously If I was a wolf I don't kill Dubb because I really don't think he votes for me. I kill J23 because Dubb voted for you yesterday and it is could be easy to get him on you.

Well, J23 also stated he would vote for me, Mckerney and I were his top prospects. So no reason for you to kill him. You had him, then me who had voted you but at least seemed tractable, and then Dubb who was going maniacal. Pretty clear choice.

[Commo_Soldier]

Dola, I'd be really curious to see what everyone else thinks about this. Not sure if we could do it or not, but since this is the final vote maybe after deadline people can say who they thought it was if they are on before the votes are revealed. The only downside is if it is me and I survive the flame. Then it could play into who J23 NKs before the mechanic kicks in.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, J23 also stated he would vote for me, Mckerney and I were his top prospects. So no reason for you to kill him. You had him, then me who had voted you but at least seemed tractable, and then Dubb who was going maniacal. Pretty clear choice.

Dubb was maniacal several days ago too and he didn't vote for me yesterday. He could have been doing that to try and survive.

[Commo_Soldier]

Another thing to think about Autumn, if there are two dark charms wouldn't it stand to reason that there are two light charms possible. If you don't have one and I have one, doesn't that tell you something.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Another thing to think about Autumn, if there are two dark charms wouldn't it stand to reason that there are two light charms possible. If you don't have one and I have one, doesn't that tell you something.

We already saw a light charm, Chief had it.

[Commo_Soldier]

Off to work now, but as for my suggestion earlier about others voting after deadline it would be just that, just the vote, no unvotes or analysis.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

We already saw a light charm, Chief had it.

We did, and I started with one as well. We also saw a dark charm, EF had it.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

Dubb was maniacal several days ago too and he didn't vote for me yesterday. He could have been doing that to try and survive.

It's possible he would have changed, yes. But if I was the wolf and he was looking at me like that, no way I let him live. If I'm the wolf and he's looking at someone else like that, no way I pass up that opportunity. It's a tough spot for you, if you hadn't moved around at deadline and set him off I think you had a good shot. You could have voted J23 then, maybe, and set me and Dubb against each other, or same with Dubb and J23. I think you just slipped up and tried to work on the next day too soon.

[Commo_Soldier]

For real now last post before I leave.

I moved because I wasn't feeling McKerney. If I'm a wolf I stay on him, why do I bring attention to my self and move myself into a tie and possible death?

Regardless I have one and only one regret this game. I thought about it yesterday and wish I had thought about it sooner. I wish I passed my light charm to Mauboy. If I would have been thinking the night we killed EF I would have done that.

[Autumn]

You've made some good arguments, Commo. The asking about items thing could certainly be construed poorly. I could make a big deal about the dark charm. If I was a wolf, I'd go with you on those, that's the sort of stuff we've lynched a bunch of villagers on already, isn't it.

But I'm not going to pass up the mountain of evidence for some sinister theories. It does speak well of you that you're focusing on J23 and not flipping back and forth between us. But if J23 was the wolf, he'd be pushing nightfall now, before you have a chance of convincing me.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Commo_Soldier

For real now last post before I leave.

I moved because I wasn't feeling McKerney. If I'm a wolf I stay on him, why do I bring attention to my self and move myself into a tie and possible death?

I would guess because you were wanting to come off good, looking like the one that didn't lynch the good guy. You knew that you had to get through another lynch the next day, and you hoped that would make you look good. In addition, I think you wanted to take advantage of some momentum for me and set me up as the candidate the next day. If you killed J23, as you say you would do as a wolf, you would need to have me or Dubb prepped as the most likely to go next. I imagine you didn't really think you'd get me lynched last night, but though you'd come off rosy and with me on the defensive.

[J23]

You do bring up a good point in that if I was a wolf, I could have acquired the dark charm after the Narc/EF lynchings. I hadn't really thought of that for whatever reason, probably because I haven't been able to actually acquire items

I'm thinking the wolf left in the game has a lot of items if they get those that people die with. If that's the case, the wolf would have their pick of the litter for which item, if any, they wanted to claim they still had. Yet you think that I decided to claim the dark charm in this situation, which has already been shown as a pretty powerful item.

I had originally asked about the items hoping that if Autumn was the remaining wolf, he might have slipped up about the item he already mentioned having earlier in the game and reportedly passed to a wolf to try to kill them. I figured it was far enough in the past he might slip up, especially if he'd received a number of other items from his night kills.

I've tried to keep an open mind about this whole thing, but I do keep returning to you Commo. If you're a villager, Autumn has done a great job this game.

[Autumn]

I'll be around most of the day, but don't have much else to say at this moment. If J23 was the wolf I think he'd be waffling more, just in case, or just nightfalling. I don't see that. If it's you J23, I look forward to facing you in battle tonight!

Assuming it's you Commo, you've had a really great game, but it's only going to get you this far. I am excited to see an endgame victory. It would be interesting to go back and look through, but i don't remember many of these situations actually working out for the village in previous games.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

You've made some good arguments, Commo. The asking about items thing could certainly be construed poorly. I could make a big deal about the dark charm. If I was a wolf, I'd go with you on those, that's the sort of stuff we've lynched a bunch of villagers on already, isn't it.

But I'm not going to pass up the mountain of evidence for some sinister theories. It does speak well of you that you're focusing on J23 and not flipping back and forth between us. But if J23 was the wolf, he'd be pushing nightfall now, before u have a chance of convincing me.

if you go on evidence why did I push for zinto and bring up narc, after I'd already have to have been converted, just to come out over the top in support of two wolves who hung themselves. That doesn't name sense. I've all but closed the door on my voting of J23 as I can't get of over the stuff I've points out this far. There would have to be a few huge smoking guns I missed on you to change my vote. If you don't change yours though and I survive the flame I hope it is me and J23 left to decide it.

[Autumn]

I can't exactly say why you did those things, Commo, only that taken altogether the evidence points one way. We all have some points in one direction or the other.

Basically I have to assume that with four wolves down or exposed in what, four days? the wolves did something to help themselves. If J23 is the wolf, he kept awfully quiet, and didn't really budge to save them. I'm betting that the wolves tried to save themselves. They didn't know we would lynch Bug and Mauboy and shoot ourselves in the foot. They had to think they were almost done unless they did something.

[J23]

I think this is where I'm going to stay barring something particularly damning coming up. I don't know how we could actually nightfall w/o giving a wolf the opportunity to change votes and nightfall, so we'll probably just have to wait it out.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I can't exactly say why you did those things, Commo, only that taken altogether the evidence points one way. We all have some points in one direction or the other.

Basically I have to assume that with four wolves down or exposed in what, four days? the wolves did something to help themselves. If J23 is the wolf, he kept awfully quiet, and didn't really budge to save them. I'm betting that the wolves tried to save themselves. They didn't know we would lynch Bug and Mauboy and shoot ourselves in the foot. They had to think they were almost done unless they did something.

They did do something. Two came out against bug and lynched themselves, why would all of the wolves come out and expose themselves? when you look at my whole body of work it makes no sense for me to come out against an original wolf just to be over the top supportive of another. It is easy to look bad when you are on a villager, but I guarantee you if I was a wolf I would have shut my mouth and not pressed so hard on bug, I would have left danny alive to do that.

[Commo_Soldier]

Originally Posted by J23

I think this is where I'm going to stay barring something particularly damning coming up. I don't know how we could actually nightfall w/o giving a wolf the opportunity to change votes and nightfall, so we'll probably just have to wait it out.

don't buy into this autumn, he is trying to cast doubt I won't switch to you because you go to the wolf. Even if J23 moved to you I'd stay on him.