WW CXXXV-Dragonball Z - Saiyans Win

[The Jackal]

So we're at 4-1-1 right now, a wrong lynch today would put us at 2-1-1 where it might be a case of earliest vote wins, so today is definitely important. My D1 vote doesn't look great, I can't lie, all I can really say for myself is if I was a wolf I would make a much less suspicious vote than that, especially on D1.

If we do hit the sorceror today it's not a terrible thing, as that would leave us at 3-1 tomorrow instead of 2-1-1. I'm not saying we should be trying to lynch the sorceror, but I'm not going to avoid people that have been acting weird.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Narcizo arguing about stats and no lynch was just bizarroworld. Then Autumn and jackal both latched onto it. I am thinking that the final two baddies are in those three. So If Narc is sorceror, other wolf trying to continue it.

No lynch is just plain bad news all around and tells us nothing. especially if it is a "Everybody vote no lynch" thing...thus we start a man down with nightkill and learn absolutely nothing.

This is a mischaracterization of a discussion that lasted the whole day and was much more nuanced than "everybody vote no lynch"

For one thing, I repeatedly said that if we did the no lynch we would still all "pretend vote". I informed everybody that I would vote PackerFAn probably if I wasn't voting no lynch.

No lynch is not "bad news all around", and frankly it's kind of annoying that many of us spent an entire day discussing whether it made sense or not, digging down into percentages, only to have you show up to play day 3 and say that.

In the end all of us but Narcizo agreed that it probably wasn't a good enough move (and luckily we got lucky with Mckerney's scan to back that up).

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Sitting in atlanta at my connector munching on a yummy chickfila chicken egg and cheese buiscuit. yum....

Chicken and egg? That seems perversely wrong. It's like food incest.

[Autumn]

I lost my vote history in a reboot. Does anyone have it?

[PackerFanatic]

Without colors (Because I am lazy)

DAY ONE

02:11 - 45 - Narcizo votes Darth Vilus (1)
03:11 - 57 - Narcizo unvotes Darth Vilus (0)
03:29 - 58 - CrimsonFox votes Darth Vilus (1)
03:47 - 61 - Narcizo votes McKerney (1)
08:16 - 70 - Autumn votes No Lynch (1)
11:40 - 111 - Autumn unvotes No Lynch (0)
11:44 - 112 - Autumn votes Mauboy (1)
11:46 - 113 - Chubby votes Niccus (1)
11:50 - 114 - PackerFanatic votes Mauboy (2)
12:10 - 116 - PackerFanatic unvotes Mauboy (1)
12:17 - 118 - Jackal votes Darth Vilus (2)
15:18 - 138 - Narcizo unvotes McKerney (0), votes No Lynch (1)
15:39 - 146 - Mauboy votes niccus (2)
17:07 - 150 - PackerFanatic votes Mauboy (2)
17:29 - 152 - Mckerney votes Darth Vilus (3)
17:58 - 153 - Niccus votes Darth Vilus (4)
19:17 - 160 - Autumn unvotes Mauboy (1), votes Niccus (3)
20:13 - 167 - PackerFanatic unvotes Mauboy (0), votes Niccus (4)
20:44 - 170 - Niccus unvotes Darth Vilus (3), votes Mauboy (1)
20:47 - 174 - Niccus unvotes Mauboy (1), votes Darth Vilus (4)
20:48 - 176 - mckerney unvotes Darth Vilus (3), votes Niccus (5)
20:51 - 179 - Chubby unvotes Niccus (4), votes Darth Vilus (4)

4 Darth Vilus - CrimsonFox (58), Jackal (118), Niccus (174), Chubby (179)
4 Niccus - Mauboy (146), Autumn (160), PackerFanatic (167), McKerney (176)
1 No Lynch - Narcizo (138)

[PackerFanatic]

DAY TWO

22:26 - 225 - CrimsonFox votes Autumn (1)
01:48 - 235 - Narcizo votes CrimsonFox (1)
09:03 - 247 - Narcizo unvotes CrimsonFox (0), votes Autumn (2)
10:04 - 253 - PackerFanatic votes CrimsonFox (1)
12:04 - 256 - Mauboy votes Narcizo (1)
12:22 - 258 - McKerney votes Mauboy (1)
12:27 - 259 - Jackal votes Mauboy (2)
12:44 - 262 - Autumn votes Mauboy (3)
12:55 - 267 - PackerFanatic unvotes CrimsonFox (0), votes Mauboy (4)
13:00 - 268 - Narcizo unvotes Autumn (1), votes Mauboy (5)
18:13 - 297 - CrimsonFox unvotes Autumn (0), votes Mauboy (6)
18:45 - 305 - Niccus votes Mauboy (7)

7 Mauboy - McKerney (258), Jackal (259), Autumn (262), PackerFanatic (267), Narcizo (268), CrimsonFox (297), Niccus (305)
1 Narcizo - Mauboy (256)

[Autumn]

That's fine PF, no color needed. Thanks a lot.

[PackerFanatic]

So we have...

CrimsonFox - High on my list of suspects

PackerFanatic - I know I am good, and I guess I am somewhat trusted to some

Autumn - Not sure yet...don't like the Mauboy vote early Day 1

Niccus - trusted in my eyes.

The Jackal - put a 2nd vote on a villager day 1, hasn't done much else. Not sure...

Narcizo - trusted, although could be sorcerer

[Autumn]

So both CF and Narc are quick to jump out with a list of suspects today. I have to think the remaining wolf is going to be one of those attempting to direct the discussion today, especially if he is among the chief suspects.

CF comes right out and paints Narc, me and Jackal as the suspects. Votes me, suggests Narc is sorceror.

Narc is next out, paints CF or Jackal as the wolves. Says he will vote with PF and Niccus.

I think Narcizo is the more likely sorceror. It's possible he's a wolf,. most players wouldn't pull out that no lynch stuff as a wolf, but I think Narc might have, it's just his style. Still, he's more likely to do that as a sorceror.

CF fits the class wolf mold. Quiet at first, plant a vote and leave. Throw some suspicion and leave. And then as the game gets to the deciding point he's suddenly vocal. In addition to his seeming keen interest in planting first votes (and thus controlling the tiebreakers), this makes him suspect in my mind. I will probably vote there, unless I see something else in the voting. The fact that CF notes me, Narc and Jackal, and then Narc suggest CF and Jackal suggests to me that Narc is hoping Jackal will end up taking the majority of the votes as the overlapping candidate.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

So we have...

CrimsonFox - High on my list of suspects

PackerFanatic - I know I am good, and I guess I am somewhat trusted to some

Autumn - Not sure yet...don't like the Mauboy vote early Day 1

Niccus - trusted in my eyes.

The Jackal - put a 2nd vote on a villager day 1, hasn't done much else. Not sure...

Narcizo - trusted, although could be sorcerer

I love this game where I'm not trusted because I'm the one who voted for a wolf. Werewolf, people.

[Autumn]

Also, though my gut feel for Niccus has been good, I don't see clearing him at all because of day one voting. That's the sort of mistake that kills villages. Mauboy put a second vote on the guy in his first game on day one? I would do that in a heartbeat as a wolf. When's the last time we lynched a new player on day one? As far as I know this is the first time we even came close to it. That's a perfect place to hide a wolf vote. Especially with Niccus placing a deciding vote on Darth to put him well ahead.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I love this game where I'm not trusted because I'm the one who voted for a wolf. Werewolf, people.

You have to accept that an early D1 vote on a revealed wolf is going to at least be mentioned. That's often exactly the slot that wolves will vote for each other.

That being said.. I know the feeling of making good uninformed votes when you're a villager and getting hosed for it. At least this time I'm getting suspicion over a crappy uninformed vote.

[The Jackal]

I had forgotten that Niccus was playing - if the Chubby kill was a way to move attention away from him after D1, kudos. Will have to consider that vs the odd vibes coming off Narc and CF.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I love this game where I'm not trusted because I'm the one who voted for a wolf. Werewolf, people.

Okay, that was a brainfart on my part. I saw the vote on a colored person on my list and just assumed it was bad. THAT vote looks good to me (well, decent since its the 1st vote really early). The move off him later to Niccus isn't so hot.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

Okay, that was a brainfart on my part. I saw the vote on a colored person on my list and just assumed it was bad. THAT vote looks good to me (well, decent since its the 1st vote really early). The move off him later to Niccus isn't so hot.

Sure, I'll take my drubbing for that (unless Niccus turns out bad, then I want laurels).

[PackerFanatic]

And after the last small game, I certainly do not throw it out that wolves could have been voting for wolves. I was so against it last game that it came back to bite the village.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Sure, I'll take my drubbing for that (unless Niccus turns out bad, then I want laurels).

lol - I will remember this

[Narcizo]

0If Crimson is a villager I don't understand why he wouldn't be voting Jackal who the voting records suggest is the best bet of being a wolf. I get what happened last game means people are wary of wolves voting wolves but I think we have to make the percentage plays and tip our hats to the wolves if they're voting each other. Crimson hasn't even acknowledged that the evidence points to him and I did a vote table yesterday as I knew my connection was going to be patchy today. Talking about sorceror hunting rather than wolf hunting makes me think he's a sorceror and thinks that Jackal is the wolf. Doesn't mean he's right - maybe Autumn is the wolf but I think the chances are greater that Jackal is the wolf.

I realise my game has been erratic but I still maintain the whole no lynch idea is one that is beneficial to the village, giving the fact that there was only really two days of votes. I should probably have explained why there's only two days of voting (as I saw it). I recognise that I might have made a mistake with Autumn (or I might not).

But if you think I'm the sorceror and I'm advocating voting Crimson or Jackal who do you think I really believe is the wolf? Autumn? Why would I discount the voting history evidence against Jackal and Crimson and decide that Autumn is the wolf? As a sorceror going hard after Autumn yesterday (presumably because I thougth he was a villager) wouldn't the revelation that mau is a wolf further convince me that Autumn is a villager and make me want to keep after him all the more?

To defend myself against the idea I'm a wolf. Again, would mau have been fishing for a sign of me being the sorceror if I'm the wolf. Perhaps it's a cunning plan that we cooked up to cover ourselves in case one of us were scanned. But is that really more likely than Jackal being a wolf voting to protect his wolf buddy day one and then pretty much not committing to anything after that, or Crimson trying to hide his intentions by, well, whatever it is he's doing?

Back again later, I hope.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I get what happened last game means people are wary of wolves voting wolves but I think we have to make the percentage plays and tip our hats to the wolves if they're voting each other.

I just want to highlight this thought and speak out against it. Voting history often gives us some clues to the wolves. But in almost every single game wolves vote at some point against them. They're as aware of how to play this game as we are. If we avoid voting people who have voted for wolves, we'll never win a game of Werewolf. I think you have to go with a combination of votes and reading between the lines in posts. It's fairly easy for a wolf to make a vote that looks good, but it's much harder for a wolf to hide in their posts.

[PackerFanatic]

Holy quiet day, Batman. Not really sure where to go today...

Going with the same reasoning I had yesterday (before the seer reveal) with CF. Early vote that wasn't moved. Best we got now, I think.

VOTE CRIMSONFOX

[Autumn]

I keep looking back, but nothing else has struck me. These small games are hard, trying to find one wolf out of the group with so little history to go by. In a normal game by endgame we have a ton of evidence out there.

VOTE CRIMSONFOX

[Niccus]

Hello and again sorry for not posting much. I've been doing more re-reading of stuff then posting. I am stuck in looking at a lot of what Packer is saying. Even though I still am having a hard time interpreting some stuff I feel confident Packer is a villager, and from what I can see so does everyone else. This leaves Jackal and CF and Autumn to be suspect as either a wolf and one as the sorcerer.

I am having a hard time picking out who I think seems more of the wolf or the sorcerer so I am unsure but right now I am considering voting along with Packer on CF because I have faith in him as a villager and the villagers controlling the vote is important.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I just want to highlight this thought and speak out against it. Voting history often gives us some clues to the wolves. But in almost every single game wolves vote at some point against them.

Even in small games where even one vote can start a run that lynches a wolf? I'd be tempted to play it safe and I'm normally a firm believer in voting a wolf as a wolf.

Anyhoo it's a moot point. I reckon Jackal is the wolf (with a decent chance that it's Autumn), not sure if Crimson or Autumn is the sorceror - Crimson's play this morning makes me lean heavily towards it being him. Seems like he's pretty much asking to be lynched. If Crimson is a villager then the villager who isn't me left (Niccus at a guess) has to vote immediately for Jackal (I suspect) or whoever they think might be the wolf, I guess. If bad win because of an early vote tomorrow then I claim a moral victory.

I said I'd follow Packer and I think Crimson is a good shout for being evil of some description so I'll keep my promise

Vote Crimson
Vote nightfall

If Crimson isn't the wolf I guess Packer is probably for the chop. It the very unlikely event I'm killed then my suspect list from good to bad is

Packer
Niccus (maybe sorceror/not seeing as wolf)
Autumn (Sorceror/maybe wolf)
Jackal (Wolf)
Crimson (Sorceror/wolf)

I'm off now. Hope for

[Narcizo]

Of course, sorceror probably won't matter tomorrow if there is still a wolf left.

Zinto: can we do away with the tie breaker rule and have a trivia quiz or something instead?

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I'm off now. Hope for

....

warmer weather for me tomorrow. It's pretty darned cold at the moment.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Autumn

So both CF and Narc are quick to jump out with a list of suspects today.

this is what's such crapola about things you are saying. Narcizo is in europe and I was on a redeye flight. But you want to lose fine.
I'll help. I know you're probably a wolf autumn.

unvote autumn
vote crimsonfox
vote nightfall

[PackerFanatic]

UNVOTE CRIMSONFOX

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

this is what's such crapola about things you are saying. Narcizo is in europe and I was on a redeye flight. But you want to lose fine.
I'll help. I know you're probably a wolf autumn.

unvote autumn
vote crimsonfox
vote nightfall

My point was not at what time you posted, but what you posted. It makes sense for the last wolf to make sure we start looking in a certain direction today, not sit back and let the village decide how things go.

Voting yourself makes me think you're the sorceror, not a wolf, but I suppose that's not the worst result. It will make the wolf work hard tomorrow if he doesn't have the sorceror to help.

[PackerFanatic]

There is only one of you damn baddies left (well, 1.5 I suppose) and yet a lot of you are following me. WTF, lol

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Of course, sorceror probably won't matter tomorrow if there is still a wolf left.

Zinto: can we do away with the tie breaker rule and have a trivia quiz or something instead?

I would change it since I see it isn't fair but changing it at this point probably would not be fair either.

[Niccus]

Narcizos words make me confident he is a villager as well, but I mean there is possibility of him being the sorcerer but whatever I don't see him as a wolf. Even after Crimsons statement I will follow Packer and Narcizo. Tonight will go to show a lot if CF is a wolf, either way a lot will be shown for tomorrow regardless.

Vote Crimsonfox

[Niccus]

and while I was posting a lot has happened.... gonna follow Packers lead.

Unvote Crimsonfox

[Niccus]

just to defend myself with my vote bouncing around. I was posting my vote for CF and the last thing that had been said at the time was Crimsons self vote.

I was following up on Packer and Narcizos vote. I am considering Autumn and Jackal now as being potential wolfs. But I also am confident in Narcizo so I don't know if I should continue to follow up on CF or go with Packer. Because I am sure for the most part us 3 are villagers. With CF, Autumn, and Jackal being wolves and/or the sorcerer

[PackerFanatic]

It's hard to go off just one days worth of voting at this point, which is why I didn't like the no lynch idea (I know we didn't have a no lynch, but yesterday was a wasted day for obvious reasons). Glad we got a wolf, but now we aren't much better off that we had been.

I think I am going to with my other gut feeling, based on his second vote on day 1.

VOTE AUTUMN

[PackerFanatic]

Jackal is still in the mix, but he hasn't done much to give me any feeling one way or another about him. I think right now it's between CF and Autumn, and based on CF's action earlier, I'd find it hard to imagine him a wolf in that situation (unless he really just wanted to give up, heh)

[Zinto]

CrimsonFox- Autumn(371), Narcizo(373), CrimsonFox(376)
Autumn-PackerFanatic(384)

[Autumn]

I"m on hold with the iRS right now so can't really write. But I'm just surprised you guys are moving your votes because CF pulled the "pout & self vote" move. Why not do that as a wolf? He has hours hours to move his vote back, but it apparently makes you guys feel sympathetic.

[Niccus]

quick question, what is vote nightfall?

I hope you all believe I am seriously new and not a veteran in disguise anymore haha

[PackerFanatic]

Nightfall is a way to finish the current day. Sometimes the rules can change on how to handle it, but most of the time everyone must vote it and the GM must allow it. Plus it depends on the availability of the GM to actually process the night.

[The Jackal]

I have to go soon and probably won't be back before the deadline, so I guess I have to make a decision here.

[The Jackal]

I find it more likely that CF is the sorceror than a wolf, I'm fairly convinced he isn't a wolf, so I think my vote would be used better trying to nail the last wolf.

Autumn's posts haven't rubbed me as very wolfy, I didn't have a problem with the no lynch discussion, but that early vote on mau coupled with the later switch (even though it was since no steam had gathered on mau) has my D1 wolf on wolf ping going.

VOTE AUTUMN

[Autumn]

I have friends coming over for the night so I won't be around to debate this. But I guess if it worked for CF, it can work for me:

UNVOTE CRIMSONFOX
VOTE AUTUMN

[PackerFanatic]

Now you guys are just messing with me.

[Autumn]

Apparently that's the way to give incontrovertible proof of villagerness.

Frankly, I think CF was annoyed to be down to the last wolf and come into thread to find he was getting lynched. It doesn't make sense to me to throw away analysis just because he's willing to give up.

[PackerFanatic]

I am not throwing it away, just didn't want to jump to any conclusions either way I guess.

[Zinto]

CrimsonFox- Narcizo(373), CrimsonFox(376)
Autumn- PackerFanatic(384), The Jackal(391), Autumn(392)

[Zinto]

I am going to assume the majority want the next deadline to be Monday. If not just post what day works better for you and if the majority agrees we can have the deadline then. It doesn't matter to me what day the deadline is.

And I mean that as an if we have to continue.

[Zinto]

Also I might not be here at 10 but I will make every effort to get the results posted as quickly as possible.

[Niccus]

I also am going out for the night so I will go ahead.

Vote Autumn

[Autumn]

You guys can vote me off if you want, I guess. I'm the sorcerer, so that means you still won't be any closer to finding a wolf. Hope you have better luck tomorrow, but I don't expect you will.