Werewolf XLVI - Sun And Shadow (Game Thread) - Game Over! Cultists win!

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Also, recall that we (presumably) have the Signifier, who can tell us if a person is telling the truth or not. We need to get talking a little bit, so that he has a chance to make a good choice today. Recall that his action is during the day, so he can help us immediately, if he finds something out.

If we all say something, to the effect of, what we did last night (without giving too much away), we have potentially have an additional tool to help us.

I will go first: I did not attempt a Shadow Corruption last night.

It's built into the rules that this type of quote won't work

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Also, recall that we (presumably) have the Signifier, who can tell us if a person is telling the truth or not. We need to get talking a little bit, so that he has a chance to make a good choice today. Recall that his action is during the day, so he can help us immediately, if he finds something out.

If we all say something, to the effect of, what we did last night (without giving too much away), we have potentially have an additional tool to help us.

I will go first: I did not attempt a Shadow Corruption last night.

Just a reminder, the rules state that such a role would be wasted if you use a coerced line such as "I am not bad".

I wouldn't risk it getting wasted on a line such as what you just used, I also think that type of thing is a bit gamey too myself. I think something like what I just said is better to be used as I clearly stated that I did nothing but sleep and did it uncoerced (if that makes sense).

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Anyone else want to give the Signifier something to work with?

I need to vote real soon and then leave for work for the rest of the cycle.

Originally Posted by rules

Note that this is not intended to allow coerced situations where everyone is forced to say "I am good!" Such situations muddle the truth and the ability will be wasted.

I don't think that's going to work.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Also, recall that we (presumably) have the Signifier, who can tell us if a person is telling the truth or not. We need to get talking a little bit, so that he has a chance to make a good choice today. Recall that his action is during the day, so he can help us immediately, if he finds something out.

If we all say something, to the effect of, what we did last night (without giving too much away), we have potentially have an additional tool to help us.

I will go first: I did not attempt a Shadow Corruption last night.

I think that statement is a variant on what Peregrine said he wouldn't allow to be used in this manner, just so you know.

[SnDvls]

wow we all said the same thing, but differently

[SnDvls]

anyone else want to comment on the rule too?

[Tyrith]

Yeah. Another clueless day for me. We're going to be bad off for information for a while. It seems like there's a fair amount of stuff in place that will allow us to pick up clues, though, and I can't imagine that Peregrine designed a game that just raw screws us. We really need to crack one, though, then we can really start to develop some connections. That's what got us into trouble last game -- without every hitting a confirmed bad guy we couldn't ever start to untangle the webs.

[Swaggs]

How about what action folks took, then?

Along the lines of, "I used an item," or "I performed a search."

I have been asking folks what they did last night or if they learned anything productive--same basic intent, without someone specifically asking others.

[Chief Rum]

All right, I hate voting so early beofre more information is out there, but I don't have a choice. I have ot leave for work. I am going to avoid the ones who have been at least a little bit cleared for today only. It makes more sense to avoid them for now, although I didn't see any clears today I would consider ironproof.

VOTE BRIAND

I haven't played with BrianD in a while, but I know he is a crafty veteran. IMO, he has been too quiet. Could be busy or just getting back into it again, but it seems suspicious to me with little else to go on.

VOTE PUNISHMENT

This is not an indictment on Brian, on whom I feel somewhat lukewarm on at best. It is more in support of the idea we need Punishment to help us win this game and learn voting records.

Good luck, everyone.

[Lathum]

VOTE CHIEFRUM

VOTE PUNISHMENT

I have to vote earlier today. Something just does not sit right with him, some of his suggestions seem to fishy.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'll get my punishment vote out of the way first. As usual, I'm not going to be in a hurry to cast my person vote.

VOTE PUNISHMENT

[Tyrith]

It seems to me that any kind of coerced statement isn't likely to work.

[Tyrith]

Dola, coerced as in even anything specifically said to be targeted by soothsayer. And the ability seems to be much more effective when used when the target doesn't really know its coming.

I'm with Mr.W, best to get this out of the way now.

VOTE PUNISHMENT

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

All right, I hate voting so early beofre more information is out there, but I don't have a choice. I have ot leave for work. I am going to avoid the ones who have been at least a little bit cleared for today only. It makes more sense to avoid them for now, although I didn't see any clears today I would consider ironproof.

VOTE BRIAND

I haven't played with BrianD in a while, but I know he is a crafty veteran. IMO, he has been too quiet. Could be busy or just getting back into it again, but it seems suspicious to me with little else to go on.

VOTE PUNISHMENT

This is not an indictment on Brian, on whom I feel somewhat lukewarm on at best. It is more in support of the idea we need Punishment to help us win this game and learn voting records.

Good luck, everyone.

I'm here and paying attention, I just haven't figured out a useful strategy for this game so I have been mostly observing. Fortunately I will be around all day so I can wait and see what is revealed during the day.

[Swaggs]

I am going to have to vote soon.

I am leaning towards picking Alan T or Chief Rum.

Both are very good, analytical players and, in this game, they can still help us if they are cleansed. Both were vague when asked what they did last night, although Alan was a bit more so. Chief has made some questionable requests.

[Tyrith]

In this game it is almost an encouragement to vote for the vets early. We can let them run their brains with little danger, and I know hoops, for one, has talked about being a vanilla being his favorite role, because he can use his brain without worrying about getting killed and losing a major role for his team. So I, for one, am not going to be gunshy.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I am going to have to vote soon.

I am leaning towards picking Alan T or Chief Rum.

Both are very good, analytical players and, in this game, they can still help us if they are cleansed. Both were vague when asked what they did last night, although Alan was a bit more so. Chief has made some questionable requests.

I didn't mean to be vague, but I will be less vague for you then.

I didn't realize night orders were due in by midnight, and when I went to put my order in at 6am, I was told by Peregrine that it was too late. Thus, I ended up with no night action last night, I ended up with a default sleeping action of I assume being in the ritual room according to the rules (even though my night pm didn't list the room, it simply said get a PM in time next time).

So yeah, I wasn't the person who converted anyone last night, I also didn't do anything to benefit anyone last night. This also doesn't prove my innocence or give me a step up in any direction as I have stated multiple times with multiple shadow members, it only requires 1 to put a vote in.

So hope thats less vague for you. Anything further I would tell you would have to be made up fabrications.

[Alan T]

Dola, for whomever the Signifier is, feel free to scan any of my last post if you don't believe me. Most people who have run games with me in them know I generally put in night actions the following morning after thinking things through for the night. Guess its not an option this game for me.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I am going to have to vote soon.

I am leaning towards picking Alan T or Chief Rum.

Both are very good, analytical players and, in this game, they can still help us if they are cleansed. Both were vague when asked what they did last night, although Alan was a bit more so. Chief has made some questionable requests.

I have a tendency to believe that Alan is not Shadow. I believe he did just as he claims to. So if those are your choices, I think you would be better off with Chief than Alan.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't think that Alan is Shadow, but at the same time, I don't think his failure to get an action in is conclusive.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I don't think that Alan is Shadow, but at the same time, I don't think his failure to get an action in is conclusive.

I just said that.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by Alan T

This also doesn't prove my innocence or give me a step up in any direction as I have stated multiple times with multiple shadow members, it only requires 1 to put a vote in.

What gives you that impression?

I was under the impression that the Shadow members did not begin the game in contact with one another, so I presumed they would both be doing something last night?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

What gives you that impression?

I was under the impression that the Shadow members did not begin the game in contact with one another, so I presumed they would both be doing something last night?

The same things I said about hoops earlier stays true for me too.

My believe from reading the rules and what Peregrine has posted is:

If there are two shadow members, and both put in the same name for conversion, its 100%
If there are two shadow members and one puts in a name, and one doesnt put anything in (due to being blocked or in my case inaction), conversion is 100% for the name put in.
If there are two shadow members and each put in different names, then conversion is 50% with the tie going to the "head shadow player"

You can then expand it on to more shadow players such as:

THree shadow members, two put in one name, and one put in the other name its 67% to 33%, with the 67% one winning.

The reason I feel it happens this way is Peregrine posted in the rules somewhere that any conversion attempt of over 50% automatically is successful.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I was under the impression that the Shadow members did not begin the game in contact with one another, so I presumed they would both be doing something last night?

If Alan were Shadow, then the way it would work would be that he neglected to get his action in, but the other Shadow acted and succeeded (with an automatic conversion at 50% or more).

Judging by the rules, I don't think you're necessarily right that they don't begin in contact with one another, either. There's no details about how they can communicate, but it says that "the Shadow players will be able to communicate with all the other Shadow players, through a method I will reveal to them."

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

The Shadow

The Shadow starts with one player, and gains a second on Night 0. After that, each night they can try to gain more recruits. As a night action, each Shadow player chooses one player to try to convert, he focuses his shadow energies on him. As more are converted, the power of the shadow being is split among them. The first conversion had a 100% chance to succeed, when there are two players, each has 50%, when three, each has 33%, and so forth. The more the Shadow spirit is divided the harder it is for him to focus his energies for more conversions. Once the votes are sent to the GM I will total them up and start with the person receiving the most votes. Any total Shadow force that's 50% or more means an automatic conversion, IF the target player can be found and is not protected somehow. After that I will go down the list by percentage. It's possible no one will be converted in a given night, but there will never be more than one person converted.

I brought this part up earlier, but to go over it again.. The part that clues me in is the bolded part. Originally I had assumed the chance of conversion goes down the more shadow players there are. But based on this, thats not true. Conversions can still be automatic as long as the shadow players team up appropriately to do so.

What will be important for us to learn is when we finally cleanse a shadow player, to find out what their communication method is, and how much they really can communicate with each other.

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

What gives you that impression?

I was under the impression that the Shadow members did not begin the game in contact with one another, so I presumed they would both be doing something last night?

Were they not allowed to communicate anonymously with the option of identifying themselves?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I've been bouncing this around and I am going to go ahead and put it out there:

I used the scroll of indentity on hoops last night. He is not a member of the Sun faction and his role is not one of the two that are "Shadow-friendly." Since I can reveal his role if I am cleansed, I'll hold onto that for him, for now.

Do we know or presume that the Warlock was the person that put hoops to sleep last night? If so, he could gain a bit of trust, as we would learn that he was performing a night action, rather than a conversion last night.

Catching up on reading, but if you know that I'm not Sun/Shadow then you should trust me when I say that it was the Warlock that put me to sleep last night. As far as extending trust to that person, I don't believe they would still have their Warlock power if they were Shadow so I trust that person.

[Mr. Wednesday]

hoops, we know that they were not Shadow at the time they put you to sleep, which means they were not one of the original two, but the conversion would have happened after that, so we don't know about the conversion.

[Swaggs]

Alright, I'm going to go ahead and place a vote.

Vote Chief Rum

Vote Punishment

As mentioned, I feel reasonably safe that I know the roles and/or that they are not members of the Sun faction for the following:
-Me
-Joe
-hoops
-Lathum
-ITC

That gives me somewhere between a 3-7 chance out of 13 to get one of either the three Shadows, one of the two Shadow-friendly roles (assuming they are not already Shadows), or one of the, presumably, two members of the Sun.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

If Alan were Shadow, then the way it would work would be that he neglected to get his action in, but the other Shadow acted and succeeded (with an automatic conversion at 50% or more).

Judging by the rules, I don't think you're necessarily right that they don't begin in contact with one another, either. There's no details about how they can communicate, but it says that "the Shadow players will be able to communicate with all the other Shadow players, through a method I will reveal to them."

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

hoops, we know that they were not Shadow at the time they put you to sleep, which means they were not one of the original two, but the conversion would have happened after that, so we don't know about the conversion.

My take on this type of thing is mathematical.

Right now there are 3/17 that are bad guys. Of those 3/17, 2/17 were the original shadow players that did not sleep him. So that leaves him only 1/14 chance of being the newly converted shadow player in Hoops's point of view. Whereas for everyone else would be a 2/15 chance of being a shadow player to him. So my caution all along is that he can't trust him, but for today's vote at least, he is less likely a shadow player than other choices.

We also know Lathum has claimed he was the one who slept Hoops, so we don't really have to beat around the bush for who we are talking about here. In my mind though, Lathum doesn't make a good vote today as he is only 1/14th chance of being bad vs other players. Tommorrow and every day after this however, it gets harder to extend that trust due to actions from days prior.

[DaddyTorgo]

I don't believe alan or chief are likely shadow-infested.

[Alan T]

dola, my last post had multiple quotes, my reply was only to the last of the quotes. Im not sure where the other came from!

[Swaggs]

I will, hopefully, be back around 8:00 PM EST.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I don't believe alan or chief are likely shadow-infested.

I would really love to hear how 3 different people have now come out and said they feel that I'm not of the shadow based only on what i Have said.

It feels too much like a "I'll vouch for a good guy to buy trust" type play. Maybe I'm just lucky and alot of people used items or roles to see my boring night, but there sure are alot of people extending me way too much trust for providing nothing more than just words that I have provided no truth or validity to.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Alright, I'm going to go ahead and place a vote.

Vote Chief Rum

Vote Punishment

As mentioned, I feel reasonably safe that I know the roles and/or that they are not members of the Sun faction for the following:
-Me
-Joe
-hoops
-Lathum
-ITC

That gives me somewhere between a 3-7 chance out of 13 to get one of either the three Shadows, one of the two Shadow-friendly roles (assuming they are not already Shadows), or one of the, presumably, two members of the Sun.

swaggs...CR is not a good vote on my list.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I've been kicking it around a bit and I have decided to reveal I am the warlock who put hoops to sleep last night.

I hinted yesterday I had a sleeping potion, I was just trying to get peoples opinions without tipping my hand to much.

Ordinaraly I would have revealed later but I have to leavi in a couple of hours and will be gone past the deadline.

I had moved pretty far down this path of thought after reading the PM but didn't want to suggest it publicly and potentially put a target on you.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I would really love to hear how 3 different people have now come out and said they feel that I'm not of the shadow based only on what i Have said.

It feels too much like a "I'll vouch for a good guy to buy trust" type play. Maybe I'm just lucky and alot of people used items or roles to see my boring night, but there sure are alot of people extending me way too much trust for providing nothing more than just words that I have provided no truth or validity to.

i said "i don't believe." i have no hard evidence about what you were doing last night, or whether you are shadow.

[BrianD]

By my vote count, I've got 1 vote and Chief Rum has 2.

I don't know what to think about Chief Rum, but I'm going to throw out another random vote and see what happens. I'll be on all day so I can be persuaded toward a better option if there is one. For now...

Vote KWhit

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I would really love to hear how 3 different people have now come out and said they feel that I'm not of the shadow based only on what i Have said.

It feels too much like a "I'll vouch for a good guy to buy trust" type play. Maybe I'm just lucky and alot of people used items or roles to see my boring night, but there sure are alot of people extending me way too much trust for providing nothing more than just words that I have provided no truth or validity to.

3 different people? must have missed the other 2...regardless, their opinions don't inform my own. the only thing that informs my own is my own knowledge.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I would really love to hear how 3 different people have now come out and said they feel that I'm not of the shadow based only on what i Have said.

It feels too much like a "I'll vouch for a good guy to buy trust" type play.

Trouble is, unlike a conventional game, we would expect that the Shadow don't know who one another are (possible exception of the conversion).

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by BrianD

By my vote count, I've got 1 vote and Chief Rum has 2.

I don't know what to think about Chief Rum, but I'm going to throw out another random vote and see what happens. I'll be on all day so I can be persuaded toward a better option if there is one. For now...

Vote KWhit

You missed a vote from early this morning.

(2) Chief Rum - Lathum (360), Swaggs (379)
(1) Schmidty - Mustang (274)
(1) BrianD - Chief Rum (359)
(1) Kwhit - BrianD (388)


(6) Punishment - Mustang, Chief Rum, Lathum, Mr. Wednesday, Tyrith, Swaggs

[BrianD]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You missed a vote from early this morning.

(2) Chief Rum - Lathum (360), Swaggs (379)
(1) Schmidty - Mustang (274)
(1) BrianD - Chief Rum (359)
(1) Kwhit - BrianD (388)


(6) Punishment - Mustang, Chief Rum, Lathum, Mr. Wednesday, Tyrith, Swaggs

You are right, I didn't look back that far to get my count.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Trouble is, unlike a conventional game, we would expect that the Shadow don't know who one another are (possible exception of the conversion).

That's what is making this so tough. We can't even take vote history into account because they don't know each other.

I think the only way we can find a shadow is to get lucky with one of our night actions.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Or lucky with one of our cleansings, but as I previously noted, in that respect, it's little different from a conventional game.

[Alan T]

I'm trying to figure out who to vote for based off of my feelings of other people's responses of their night actions. Since I gained no information on anything last night, I can't really add much to my list other than perception. So far I'm not going to vote for the following today:

Swaggs, Lathum, Hoopsguy, Joe


The people I feel the worst about right now are Chief and DaddyTorgo, and am leaning at looking to one of them for a vote, but waiting to see what else comes to the table today.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'm trying to figure out who to vote for based off of my feelings of other people's responses of their night actions. Since I gained no information on anything last night, I can't really add much to my list other than perception. So far I'm not going to vote for the following today:

Swaggs, Lathum, Hoopsguy, Joe


The people I feel the worst about right now are Chief and DaddyTorgo, and am leaning at looking to one of them for a vote, but waiting to see what else comes to the table today.

well that's ironic.

can i ask you to wait till tomorrow on those votes?

[path12]

Was the board down for anyone else today? This is my first chance to get in.

I spent the night in the sitting room also and got no report of any activity.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I would really love to hear how 3 different people have now come out and said they feel that I'm not of the shadow based only on what i Have said.

It feels too much like a "I'll vouch for a good guy to buy trust" type play. Maybe I'm just lucky and alot of people used items or roles to see my boring night, but there sure are alot of people extending me way too much trust for providing nothing more than just words that I have provided no truth or validity to.

Well, I don't trust you if that makes you feel better. Although you have tended to put in night actions early in the morning in games I've run, I also know you to be a player who is very up on the rules and knows when the deadlines are.

So for now:

VOTE ALAN T
VOTE PUNISHMENT

Subject to change, blah blah etc.....

[path12]

Dola, part of that vote is about the way you jumped on Chief for his idea about someone with a role of lesser importance volunteering for cleansing. He never said it was something that needed to be done every night, stressed that it wasn't meant to pressure anyone to reveal, and frankly is a better idea then shooting in the dark at someone who might have an important role that they need to keep quiet. Instead, it seemed to me that you automatically turned it into doing that repeatedly to shoot the idea down.

[DaddyTorgo]

waaaaaaaaah...peregrine left without answering the question i PMed to him