Werewolf XXVIII: Mad Wizard and the Wolves (Game over Pg45)

[Blade6119]

Cronin, might i ask why im not still your target? You were quite trigger happy on me yesterday, and a ngiht passes and i am no longer?

[Abe Sargent]

In other words hoopsguy, we never know anything in these games, so there's nothing we can take from Qwikshot's death? For all we know, it could have been as random by the antagonists as our own votes on Day One are for people?


-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

I'm also curious why I've gone from most trusted by Cronin to his initial vote today.

I think the odds are fairly good that the seer has scoped me out in the first couple of days - I'm an active player, have been a bad guy a couple of times lately (which tends to make people more suspicious), and I voted for an innocent on Day 1.

I'm not looking for this person to announce themselves and clear me, but instead asking people to think it through before doing the wizard's dirty work for them.

[hoopsguy]

Anxiety, not quite as random as our votes since they are going after a smaller sample set. And definitely not as random if we knew who was in the group ... but since we don't it is hard to fathom their motives.

I've pulled out a couple of comments from Qwik that might have set off alarm bells for them, but it is entirely possible that they weren't hunting for specials.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm also curious why I've gone from most trusted by Cronin to his initial vote today.

I think the odds are fairly good that the seer has scoped me out in the first couple of days - I'm an active player, have been a bad guy a couple of times lately (which tends to make people more suspicious), and I voted for an innocent on Day 1.

I'm not looking for this person to announce themselves and clear me, but instead asking people to think it through before doing the wizard's dirty work for them.

Hoops, not good....

[hoopsguy]

Blade, explain?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, explain?

That post just caushed flashbacks to games long ago when i first started figuring out some of your tells. The big one back then, which i hadnt seen in awhile, was a very subtle comment urging, but appearing not to, have key roles reveal...

that post you just made, while appearing not to, urged the seer to hint about his role...i dont like that one bit..

Though, granted, cronin being the one accusing you helps, as i dont like him one bit either so far. I have my trust list, and neither of you are on it

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am unclear on Blade, somewhat sure hoops is on the level, slightly suspicious of Barkeep and possibly Qwik, and more or less wary on everyone else.

An interesting post near the deadline yesterday considering qwik died and now cronin is voting hoops

[hoopsguy]

I think I was pretty clear in my post that I'm NOT looking for a seer to announce themselves to say I'm innocent - now or down the stretch if it looks like I'm a goner. I have no dire warnings about my value to Team Wolf as a "must-save" role.

I was less likely to join you on Cronin yesterday (when you indicated you didn't trust him) because I thought he might in fact be the seer. I didn't see any other reason for him to separate me out as trusted on Day 1. But the fact that he is quick-voting me on Day 2 pretty much dispels this notion for me.

The next step in going down that path is assuming that you are not a wizard/henchman. If that is the case, then I think the enemy would have preferred to see you die on Day 1 instead of Tangle. They were happy to have a showdown where they weren't involved, but would prefer you go out since you are a more active/chaotic player.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think I was pretty clear in my post that I'm NOT looking for a seer to announce themselves to say I'm innocent - now or down the stretch if it looks like I'm a goner. I have no dire warnings about my value to Team Wolf as a "must-save" role.

I was less likely to join you on Cronin yesterday (when you indicated you didn't trust him) because I thought he might in fact be the seer. I didn't see any other reason for him to separate me out as trusted on Day 1. But the fact that he is quick-voting me on Day 2 pretty much dispels this notion for me.

The next step in going down that path is assuming that you are not a wizard/henchman. If that is the case, then I think the enemy would have preferred to see you die on Day 1 instead of Tangle. They were happy to have a showdown where they weren't involved, but would prefer you go out since you are a more active/chaotic player.

Two things, both concern cronin. I felt just the opposite. I felt yesterday he was either bad or misguided, where as his 180 on you made me think today he might be the seer and viewed you last night.

As for point 2, i considered that heavily in my distrust of cronin who has voted for 3 players...if im not mistakent, dubb, myself, and now you...all considered "vets." He pushed hard to have me killed over tyrith, and until he stopped recieving support over tangle as well. It scared me, but his play regarding you is most interesting.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

VOTE HOOPSGUY

He's bad luck, fellas.

what do you mean by bad luck?

[hoopsguy]

Lathum, I can tell you that it has nothing at all to do with my role.

We are down to eight hours left at this point. Slow day so far; was holding out hope that some new info might come out.

[hoopsguy]

Voted for Tanglewood: Schmidty (209), Hoopsguy (213), Tyrith (234), Saldana (238), Blade (254)

I'm making a couple of assumptions in going after this list:
1.) There are (at least) three bad guys out there
2.) They did not vote together
3.) There is a pretty good chance that one bad guy was on the leading candidate

Schmidty - first vote, playing out a joke from over the weekend. No one had three votes at the time of casting the vote, no reason to think that Tanglewood would eventually be lynched over this. Dismayed to be considered at this point. If Schmidty is a henchman, then he was just trying to dump his vote fairly early in the day among a bunch of spread out candidates. And he really didn't want to be under review for this, which is why he is annoyed at it now. Likelihood: 40%

Hoopsguy - likelihood 0% (everyone operates with complete information on their own role

Tyrith - able to use the "self-defense" strategy for casting his vote. If a henchman/wizard, he knows that he has some votes in his pocket later in the day if needed. Likelihood 50%

Saldana - casts tie-breaking vote for Tanglewood, moving off of Dubb to do it. Generally bad guys try to avoid putting themselves in focus like this. Likelihood 30%

Blade - also gets a self-preservation defense for his vote since it was tied with about an hour left when he put his vote on Tanglewood. Was very much in harms way if there was a late vote switch by a honest wolf. Change of styles seems less likely to me as a bad guy than as a good guy. Likelihood: 25%

VOTE TYRITH

[st.cronin]

I am not the, or a, seer. I am the Lawgiver, which means that I have some insight into how the rules about breaking ties fluctuate - and they DO fluctuate. Yesterday I got confused about whether that was a pm, or a rule, and that's why I was after Blade - but anyway, that was a bad play on my part, and now I've revealed my role, for better or worse. I had an insight last night (not a foz pm, a real insight) that hoops was playing us. He fingered three suspects, and wanted us all to start talking strategy DURING NIGHT 0! When the henchmen were, theoretically, still thinking about who to either convert or scan. And Blade is spot on about hoops trying to get people to give up roles - I've seen him do that before as a badguy. He smells fishy, boys.

I tentatively aligned myself with him yesterday just as a way of getting the game going. This is the same theory I have seen others use when they try to put pressure on other players, just to see what will happen.

It's possible I'm way off base, here.

[st.cronin]

Blade has more or less entered my circle of trust with some of his posts today. I realize I'm sort of all over the map these last two days. Hopefully you all understand.

[path12]

I'm swamped today with my various wolfy duties (friggin' meetings taking up valuable WW time....). Will check in later when I get a chance......I think there's been some interesting discussion so far.

[Blade6119]

VOTE ALAN T

Alan and dubb both didnt vote...i think it is totally against the fun of the game to miss votes, but tyrith proved last time it can be used by wolves as a tool as well. This is alans first game back in a awhile, and he wouldnt take that leap without knowing he was around to play. Hence why his missed vote is soo puzzling. Dubby, hes as frustrated as i am, so i give him the benefit of the doubt on this one

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I am not the, or a, seer. I am the Lawgiver, which means that I have some insight into how the rules about breaking ties fluctuate - and they DO fluctuate. Yesterday I got confused about whether that was a pm, or a rule, and that's why I was after Blade - but anyway, that was a bad play on my part, and now I've revealed my role, for better or worse. I had an insight last night (not a foz pm, a real insight) that hoops was playing us. He fingered three suspects, and wanted us all to start talking strategy DURING NIGHT 0! When the henchmen were, theoretically, still thinking about who to either convert or scan. And Blade is spot on about hoops trying to get people to give up roles - I've seen him do that before as a badguy. He smells fishy, boys.

I tentatively aligned myself with him yesterday just as a way of getting the game going. This is the same theory I have seen others use when they try to put pressure on other players, just to see what will happen.

It's possible I'm way off base, here.

Barring any additional information, I'll rock with this for now.

Vote Hoopsguy


-Anxiety

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, just to make sure I understand this reveal - the rules say that there is a coinflip to break ties if neither of the leaders choose to break it first.

SirFozzie, Post #1

Lynches will be based on a strict Most votes basis.

Ties will be handled under the following rule: The two "boss" characters can each break a tie once (the Wolf player will have first choice on whether to break a tie or not, followed by the Wizard player). However, breaking a tie WILL reveal your role. If neither player wishes to break the tie, it will be decided by a coin flip.

Not odd as in "he's lying" but odd insofar as it seems to conflict with what we already know. I don't think you are making a fake reveal here, but I'm hoping you can let us understand a little better how your role works.

[Tyrith]

My reason for voting for tangle yesterday was because I was fairly certain blade was a good guy and didn't have any read at all on tangle. It was a shot at something rather than probably killing off someone of ours.

St.cronin's role sounds legit enough, and he trusts blade, and I don't really see a reason to not trust blade at the moment, especially after how I went yesterday. I'm leaning towards hoops at the moment, but it's still early.

[hoopsguy]

In terms of talking strategy during the night phase - it can cut both ways, just like almost anything in this game. Your posts are just as easily read by the seer, the bodyguard, the assassin, etc as they are by the wolves.

I'll try to get people to participate in the game any time I'm around - Night 0, Night 1, Day 10. Because when people post you have more information to evaluate later in the game when trying to come up with patterns/alliances/etc. Communication is a tool that helps the wolves more than the humans in this game - the humans can PM/IM/e-mail between themselves whenever they want, while posting here is the only way we have to communicate.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

My reason for voting for tangle yesterday was because I was fairly certain blade was a good guy and didn't have any read at all on tangle. It was a shot at something rather than probably killing off someone of ours.

St.cronin's role sounds legit enough, and he trusts blade, and I don't really see a reason to not trust blade at the moment, especially after how I went yesterday. I'm leaning towards hoops at the moment, but it's still early.

I appreciate your trust and all, but this post reminds me of what alan did his first game...he got all chummy with me and i trusted him...BAM..he was a bad guy...i dont trust you as far i can throw you, and since i messed up my shoulder playing hockey last night, thats not very far.

[hoopsguy]

Blade, post #367:

Dubby, hes as frustrated as i am, so i give him the benefit of the doubt on this one

If Dubb is frustrated about people not voting, it would help if he would participate in the thread so that we can all react off the same information.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, just to make sure I understand this reveal - the rules say that there is a coinflip to break ties if neither of the leaders choose to break it first.

SirFozzie, Post #1


Not odd as in "he's lying" but odd insofar as it seems to conflict with what we already know. I don't think you are making a fake reveal here, but I'm hoping you can let us understand a little better how your role works.

This seems nice and innocent, but...

If you don't think it's a fake reveal, you don't need more information to decide what team he's playing for. And while having the information out there might help us plan out future moves better, what it will really do is give the bad guys more information to see how important it might be to kill him before he screws up their plan. The net result is that this makes me suspicious, even if it is typical hoopsguy.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Blade, post #367:


If Dubb is frustrated about people not voting, it would help if he would participate in the thread so that we can all react off the same information.

Frustrated with WW i meant, not people not voting...especially after last game when dubb and i had sndvls nailed down and schmidty made his move...i have no idea of his feelings on people not voting

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Cronin, just to make sure I understand this reveal - the rules say that there is a coinflip to break ties if neither of the leaders choose to break it first.

SirFozzie, Post #1


Not odd as in "he's lying" but odd insofar as it seems to conflict with what we already know. I don't think you are making a fake reveal here, but I'm hoping you can let us understand a little better how your role works.

Well, I guess that certain pre-ordained things in the game happen and the rules change, and Foz pms me about it. I don't really know. Maybe it's something bizarre, like if the wolf boss is killed, the player with the second highest votes gets lynched? All I know is what I know. And I know I don't trust you. You haven't been a bit helpful. Was it your intention to get Tanglewood killed all along? I don't know, but if it was, it was a mighty clever way to do it.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

This seems nice and innocent, but...

If you don't think it's a fake reveal, you don't need more information to decide what team he's playing for. And while having the information out there might help us plan out future moves better, what it will really do is give the bad guys more information to see how important it might be to kill him before he screws up their plan. The net result is that this makes me suspicious, even if it is typical hoopsguy.

yes yes yes you all are seeing what I see now

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, I would like more information to determine how ties work - just like I think all players on both sides would like to have this information to make informed decisions. I might have moved my vote last night if I understood ties to work differently than they were explained in Post #1 by SirFozzie.

Wanting complete information (or as much as you can get in werewolf) is pretty standard Hoopsguy, I agree.

[Tyrith]

I need to ponder things. I'll be back to vote in a couple of hours.

[hoopsguy]

Cronin, check your glasses. You are headed down the wrong path here. And you won't be at all helpful to our team (assuming you are a wolf) in getting me lynched.

I am not the, or a, seer. I am the Lawgiver, which means that I have some insight into how the rules about breaking ties fluctuate - and they DO fluctuate. Yesterday I got confused about whether that was a pm, or a rule, and that's why I was after Blade - but anyway, that was a bad play on my part, and now I've revealed my role, for better or worse. I had an insight last night (not a foz pm, a real insight) that hoops was playing us. He fingered three suspects, and wanted us all to start talking strategy DURING NIGHT 0! When the henchmen were, theoretically, still thinking about who to either convert or scan.

1. Has the tie-breaker rule changes from the start of the game until now?
2. What about Blade's post yesterday set you after him?
3. I'm not playing anyone this game. I won't promise not to do so in future games, but everything I have done this game has been with the idea of achieving a wolf victory. And I'll accept accountability for mistakes like the vote yesterday, but that doesn't mean that I will meekly submit to us making another mistake with todays vote.
4. I don't believe that the henchmen/wizards were converting or scanning people on Night 0. It is entirely possible that this was a bad assumption, but Night 0 is usually advantage majority, not advantage minority.

[Lathum]

St. Cronin-
Without posting the PM of your role what exactlly is your purpose. You didn't really do a role reveal as I can tell because you never really stated what your ability is?

Also, what insight do you have into a tiebreaker, this info could help us alot down the road in case you get killed tonight.

[mckerney]

Vote hoopsguy

[hoopsguy]

mckerney, could I at least get some reasons for this vote?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

mckerney, could I at least get some reasons for this vote?

Why would he, he didnt when he voted for me yesterday...though you never questioned it then (no one else did, except me...annoying, no?)

[hoopsguy]

I'm wondering if we are going to get any information on the roles of the dead. Based on the descriptions so far I haven't seen anything to indicate that Qwikshot or Tanglewood were anything but standard werewolves.

[hoopsguy]

So voting pattern on mckerney - never first to vote on someone, no explanations for votes, minimal participation in game outside of votes (5 out of 384, one of which was indicating he would play in the game).

[mckerney]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

mckerney, could I at least get some reasons for this vote?

With little more to go on right now I'm going with st.cronin on this one. Preferably I'd be able to wait longer to make this vote until more comes out, but I have to be at work for half an hour and won't be able to get back online until after the deadline.

Sadly most of the time when I'm online it's during night actions and am at work when most of the day discussion is going on.

[hoopsguy]

I obviously don't like that there are now two people following Cronin in voting for me, with a 3rd person indicating he is leaning in this direction, when he has pretty clearly stated that he has no PM or role-specific information for voting for me.

Believing Cronin is being honest in a role reveal does not mean that you should vote for me here. A does not necessarily equal B.

[Lathum]

I think there is something fishy about St.Cronin. I'm not sure what he has to gain by starting this witch hunt on hoops. I don't think he is a baddie because why draw so much attention to himself?I would really like to know more about his role

for some reason I just don't feel right voting for hoops, he has been to outspoken early on to be a baddie. IMO.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think there is something fishy about St.Cronin. I'm not sure what he has to gain by starting this witch hunt on hoops. I don't think he is a baddie because why draw so much attention to himself?I would really like to know more about his role

for some reason I just don't feel right voting for hoops, he has been to outspoken early on to be a baddie. IMO.

If it were anyone else id be on hoops...but every game, at least 3-4 times, cronin goes all out after somone and claims to be dead sure he knows their bad(similar to what i do)...unfortunately for cronin, most of the time he is wrong about these assumptions, including me yesterday

[Lathum]

OK, I am leaving for work soon, I am leaning towards dubb or AlanT since we haven't heard a peep from eaither one of them.

[Tyrith]

If hoops ever stopped being outspoken he would draw mass suspicision like blade has this game. Loud people can't suddenly change directions without sirens going off everywhere.

As I see it, hoops is being his usual nosy self, except a little moreso than normal because he wants to stir up the game, which I don't completely agree with, but, in a vacuum, see the logic behind. Cronin is being his usual outspoken self and charging after him, with some minimal role evidence to back himself up. This leads me to a couple of thoughts:

1) Is cronin a bad guy already trying to stage a role reveal to get on our side? It certainly seems risky, but if he could get on our good side and use it to get rid of hoops and then perhaps stay around afterwards, it would be a huge gain.
2) How much of hoops probing is him trying to stir up activity, compared to him trying to probe for information that will help the bad side more than our good side?

I'm really conflicted at this point. Cronin's "role reveal" was executed in a manner that leaves open the possibility of a botch, but he could also be genuinely confused -- this is Fozzie's game. He also supported blade, who has no heat right now and seems to be accepted as not a huge threat. Is he a bad guy trying to use blade as cover, or is he innocent and actually believes what blade has to say?

Right now, I still don't know which way to go.

[Lathum]

I think the key to the game is obviously unveiling who the wizard is. I think it unlikely that either hoops or cronin is the wizard, or even a baddie at this point. I am always looking at the quiet ones.

Since I am not sold on hoops being a baddie and Cronin hasn't revealed much about his role I am going with one of the quieter players.

VOTE MCKERNEY

My reason for the voter is that I voted for him day one. Now I know that when I get a day one vote I almost always vote for that person right back for self preservation. McKerney didn't even make mention of my vote for him and went right for blade who at the time had some pressure on him. I think it is possible McKerney was trying to eliminat one of the more valuable players without drawing attention to himself.


I am leaving for work now, good luck to us.

[hoopsguy]

Nosy or noisy? Both probably apply

I've had time at the office today where I could actually post. When I have that luxury, I have a lot more fun actively participating than sitting back and taking in the action. Maybe not a lot of fun being targeted, but ...

FWIW, I don't have Blade in a "complete trust" mode - just marginally above the average because I think there was a good amount of danger he was in yesterday. Danger that I think could have been avoided, to a large extent, if he was a human and had some votes aligned with him.

I'm inclined to believe that Cronin is a wolf heading in the wrong direction. The risk/reward ratio for his reveal just doesn't feel like it measures up for it to be a fake.

So far we have less than half of the votes in the books. Although that assumes we will ever see either AlanT or Dubb this game.

[hoopsguy]

Vote update:

Ardent - Barkeep (347)
Hoopsguy - Cronin (350), Anxiety (368), mckerney (382)
Tyrith - Hoopsguy (363)
AlanT - Blade (367)
mckerney - Lathum (393)

[Tyrith]

Mckerney could possibly be a bandwagon following bad guy, staying quiet and trying to get good players lynched while not taking the heat for it. I think it bears discussion for the time being. Cronin's stuff today seems too risky to be a bad guy move, and hoops, well...I wish there was something a little bit more concrete either way. It's not worth joining that train right now, when I was already thinking about mckerney.

I'm going to be around another hour and a half or so, so let's see what happens. But until then, I'll add to lathum's pressure. I want to at least toss is around for a bit.

VOTE MCKERNEY

[hoopsguy]

Another interesting point on mckerney ... I've worked with the assumptions that there were three bad guys at the start and that they would try to avoid being on the same candidates. That is why I initially looked at those voting for Tanglewood earlier today.

However, there were four people voting for Blade on Day 1 as well. Now two of those people are dead (obviously not henchmen). The remaining guys are mckerney and cronin (role reveal).

Repost of Day 1 votes:
Tyrith - Barkeep (158), Path (160)
Blade - Qwik (161), mckerney (176), cronin (188), Tanglewood (251)
mckerney - Lathum (168)
Tanglewood - Schmidty (209), Hoopsguy (213), Tyrith (234), Saldana (238), Blade (254)
Barkeep - Anxiety (219)
Schmidty - Ardent (291)

No votes: AlanT (out for day), Dubb

[Poli]

Barkeep:

I can tell you exactly what I was thinking yesterday when I voted. I logged in just minutes before the deadline. Crap.

1. I don't know the tally as of now. I scanned up the page, and didn't find it, either.
2. I then went to the first page to see if Schmidty was playing. He was. That made my vote easy.
3. I was drinking some last night. Everything I did last night made perfect sense to me.

[Poli]

BTW, I got access at work again.

Only took 3 hours to get it done, too.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I obviously don't like that there are now two people following Cronin in voting for me, with a 3rd person indicating he is leaning in this direction, when he has pretty clearly stated that he has no PM or role-specific information for voting for me.

Believing Cronin is being honest in a role reveal does not mean that you should vote for me here. A does not necessarily equal B.

That is a good point - my role reveal was intended to provide caution, that I am not as solid on this as a "seer" would be for example. There is definitely something "non-wolf-friendly" about your play, though. Talking strategy early in the night is, in fact, a BAD idea for the wolves, and yet you were trying to draw people out. That had alarm bells going in my head, but I played along to see where we went.