Werewolf i - Game Over, villagers win - Page 8

DaddyTorgo · 10-06-2006, 10:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

deadline

GoldenEagle - Bek, oliegirl, Neuqua, Glengoyne, lighthousekeeper
Bek - GoldenEagle

I don't believe I have a vote from DaddyTorgo.

actually i voted GE. It just wasn't bolded b/c i voted from my phone and i can't figure out how to bold the text on there with the crappy mobile-IE.

DaddyTorgo · 10-06-2006, 11:06 PM

early analysis in case I bite the dust:

In the pile on GE therefore is at least one wolf. It's not Bek (who led the vote on GE) and it's not myself (who cast the earliest vote for Izulde and also switched early onto GE).

Oliegirl, Nequea, Glengoyne, lighthousekeeper

those are our 4 suspects.

Do we assume there is only 1 wolf left so the seer and/or herbalist should reveal now? Not saying they should, just asking if anyone else thinks this is sound strategy.

Personally I had thought earlier in the game (when i referred to a COT) of spleen, lighthousekeeper and myself. I don't recall any hard evidence why I had lighthouse there in my mind, I'll hafta look tomorrow afternoon. But if I can come up with some that narrows it down even further to 1/3. Even still, we have a 1/4 chance of striking right at this point (and even 1/5 if you don't believe Bek+myself are above suspiscion).

DaddyTorgo · 10-06-2006, 11:14 PM

my thinking behind wondering if the seer should reveal: if the seer knows about 1-2 of the currently left villagers and was to reveal that it would dramatically lower the odds and the herbalist could protect them in the coming night and allow them to find out about ANOTHER player, which would lower the odds even more, to the point where we'd have several shots to take out the last remaining wolf.

DaddyTorgo · 10-06-2006, 11:17 PM

and i think a fake-reveal would be discovered before it was too late. especially if the real seer followed up the fake-reveal, then we'd just lynch one and then the other.

DaddyTorgo · 10-06-2006, 11:51 PM

you're lurking olie...what are your thoughts? or are you too busy howling at the moon?

Glengoyne · 10-07-2006, 12:03 AM

I was all primed to vote for Neuqua, but GE was on my short list as well. I felt Bek was allright after reviewing that Izulde was voting for him. Honestly my suspicion for GE was that he was too quiet, plus he jumped on the bandwagon to oust me along with Izulde on top of that.

Neuqua · 10-07-2006, 03:44 AM

Excellent job guys

Though I'm not liking my chances anymore for tomorrow with GE coming to my aid the previous day. Doesn't bode well for me at all. Hopefully we can all have a good solid discussion tomorrow and find out who the last (or last couple) WWs are.

oliegirl · 10-07-2006, 08:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

you're lurking olie...what are your thoughts? or are you too busy howling at the moon?

I wasn't lurking, I was sleeping...and everyone knows werewolves are nocturnal - so clearly I'm a villager!

I know I'm a villager, I know Bek is a villager, I'm undecided amd a bit suspicious of both Neuqua and Lighthousekeeper. DT's rundown of suspects seems legit, but could be a ploy to keep his disguise going as well. So basically, I'm not sure what our next move should be...I'll be out and about most of the day today, but will be checking in via phone and will get my vote in before 8:30 tonight.

I'm also thinking about the seer reveal and whether or not this is a good time for that or not. I'm leaning toward yes - letting the herbalist protect him for a night and then sacrificing the seer the following night...alot will depend on who it was that got eaten by wolves last night. If both the seer and the herbalist survived another night - then I'll say yes, he should reveal...if the herbalist was eaten, well, not sure what I'll think...

st.cronin · 10-07-2006, 09:51 AM

You awake at dawn, and all villagers are present and accounted for! Day 5 has begun - tentative deadline at 8:30pm Saturday EST

lighthousekeeper · 10-07-2006, 10:14 AM

well that's good news. maybe the wolves have decided that eating people is bad.

but really i guess that either means the ww forgot to vote or they selected someone protected. It probably best for us to assume the latter, because that will give us some clues on who was selected to be eaten last night and who was protected.

Neuqua · 10-07-2006, 12:15 PM

So we don't know which it is? We have to assume that either the wws forgot to vote or the herbalist protected the right guy?

Neuqua · 10-07-2006, 12:56 PM

People at this point whom I trust (In order)

1. Myself

2. Bek - No one would put the effort he did to lynch his own. Pretty obvious he's a villager.

3. Oliegirl - With the vote being so close, no reason for her to switch her vote yesterday to Goldeneagle if she knew he was a wolf. It's arguable her switching her vote is what started the massive piling onto Goldeneagle and no wolf would do that.

3. Glengoyne - Do not quite think he's a werewolf but there is a chance he is. Switched his vote to Goldeneagle after oliegirl and myself, but there was still a chance GE could not have been lynched and so Glen won him some trust from my part.

I'm still not sure what to think of lighthousekeeper or DaddyTorgo at this point. Any ideas?

Glengoyne · 10-07-2006, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

my thinking behind wondering if the seer should reveal: if the seer knows about 1-2 of the currently left villagers and was to reveal that it would dramatically lower the odds and the herbalist could protect them in the coming night and allow them to find out about ANOTHER player, which would lower the odds even more, to the point where we'd have several shots to take out the last remaining wolf.

My guess is that the Herbalist protected the seer last night. Just because I have an idea of who the seer is, so I think the wolves do as well. Luckilly they were protected last night or the wolves drank too much mead, and slept through the moon.

I'm sharing information, in hopes that we can end this today.

I'm feeling pretty solidly about Bek as a villager.

I was planning to vote Neuqua two days ago, and temporarilly voted for him yesterday. Leaning wolf

Lighthousekeeper: has flown under the radar a bit, perhaps that makes him suspicious. A review of his voting history is in order. Potential wolf

DaddyTorgo: I'm torn on, but perhaps only because he came after me for the lsg affair. Leaning villager.

Oliegirl: I also suspected her as a wolf, but she's been a relatively earlier adopter of the werewolf voting blocks. Leaning villager.

So I've got two suspects.

Glengoyne · 10-07-2006, 01:23 PM

Oh I forgot to add that I'm curious to hear what my suspects have to say in their defense.

Neuqua · 10-07-2006, 01:24 PM

Glen why do you still see me as a wolf?

I think my actions yesterday had to show you atleast a little something about being on your side.

The vote was 2-2 for Bek and myself. As soon as oliegirl changed her vote from me to Goldeneagle, I made the switch momentarily afterwards. If I knew GE was a wolf, that'd be a very stupid thing to do. Why not keep the vote on Bek, and instead have him at 2 votes while myself and GE spread out with one each? You can't seriously think I would be willing to sacrifice one of my own at this point.

Glengoyne · 10-07-2006, 01:54 PM

That was a good defense neuqua. What are your thoughts(or anyone's) on Daddy Torgo and Lighthousekeeper?

Neuqua · 10-07-2006, 01:58 PM

The fact that we have 4 somewhat trustworthy villagers left means that if the seer has ANY information on either DT or lighthousekeeper then now would be the time to come out with it. The odds are starting to favor us more and it's about ripe time to win this game.

oliegirl · 10-07-2006, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Glengoyne

That was a good defense neuqua. What are your thoughts(or anyone's) on Daddy Torgo and Lighthousekeeper?

I'm undecided on both of them, I've decided to trust Neuqua and believe that he is a villager. So I figure we have a 50/50 chance with Lighthousekeeper and DT...at this point it seems as if we need to do one of two things:

a. Decide together who we are going to vote for tonight and hope that we pick the right person.

b. Have the seer expose themselves and give us the information they have, have the herbalist protect them tonight so they can get one more scan in and then we should have all the information we need to win.

Any one care to weigh in on which option we should choose?

Glengoyne · 10-07-2006, 03:04 PM

My thoughts are that Neuqua was somewhat persuasive. Leaving the DT and Lighthouse to deal with.

I'm more in favor of selecting one of those two, for the vote tonight. I don't think it would be wise for the seer to reveal themselves. As it is, the wolves will target who ever it was they targetted last night to get the sure kill. If that is the seer, they are gone in any case.

I've got a hunch that our seer may not make it through the night, I'm taking last night's non event as a sign that the herbalist is in play as well. Based on that, if ANYONE is to "reveal" their role, it would have to be the herbalist. Who can confirm who they protected last night. That would give the wolves multiple targets, and set up a situation where the herbalist could protect the seer or the herbalist. It would be a game of chicken where either someone dies or the wolves get shut out. This option sounds fun, but risky. I vote we flip a coin. to determine which one of these two we hang.

Neuqua · 10-07-2006, 03:28 PM

I don't know. I think it just may make sense at this point for the herbalist/seer to come out and tell us what they know now. I don't see myself/glen/olie surviving the night, one of us should be getting the axe.

Glengoyne · 10-07-2006, 05:01 PM

For now I'm going to vote for lighthousekeeper. I don't think there is much of a chance that the seer has viewed either lighthousekeeper or DT. So I think we lynch one and have the seer view the other. Tomorrow we should know more, if we all make it through the night.

VOTE LIGHTHOUSEKEEPER

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 05:33 PM

wedding done. store open. catching up on what's gone down.

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 05:41 PM

wow. so the suspiscion has swung to me. let me defend myself:

1) i cast the first vote for izulde, the one that ended up dooming him because it was the earliest vote. why would a wolf do that and then not switch off at the end?

2) I switched off Bek and to GE because of something that Bek said, when that vote was still somewhat close. Switched off from my friend's rehearsal dinner for his wedding I'd like to point out.

I was on Izulde quite early and stayed on him and presented decent evidence (although it was more of a "feel" with him). Presented good evidence on GE.

If the village feels the need to lynch me, go right ahead. At least my death will narrow the odds, but I am a villager. Not the seer, not the herbalist, just a straight villager. So lynching me will help insofar as it at least cuts down the possible # of people the wolf could be, but I'd like to see us review the voting histories and posts of the people I listed as suspects last night and see if we can't come up with a better vote that will get us the last wolf.

Neuqua · 10-07-2006, 05:54 PM

DT, I'd love to hear your analysis on who may not be a wolf of those remaining.

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 05:57 PM

okay...I'm leaning towards Neuqua as a villager. His point about his voting history makes sense.

I don't understand why you think I'm a wolf at all Glen. To me that's VERY suspicious (although I suppose anyone would say that). Sorry I jumped on you about the LSG affair, it seemed like you had tipped something when it retrospect it seems possible/probable that you were just a n00b who said something a little too forcefully.

Honestly I'm not convinced you're a villager STILL Glen, but you're definately not on the top of my list.

My list of suspects:

1) lighthousekeeper - has played a very quiet, under the radar type game. hasn't contributed much after the beginning of the game

Big Dropoff to
2) Glengoyne - Only because he suspects me and I know I'm innocent

EVEN LARGER DROPOFF DOWN TO
3) If neither of these two is a wolf then we would need to look long and hard at someone like Bek (maybe the whole argument with GE was staged to put him above suspicion?), Oliegirl (has voted anti-WW and early but hasn't done anything to put her far-and-away in the villager camp) and Neuqua (same with the exception of what would have been sacrificing GE last night).

Let me emphasize that I feel that #1 is our most likely bet to nail a wolf, followed by a large dropoff to #2 (on my radar but a less obvious choice) and then the #3 suspects (who i just list for the sake of having a total list, i find them all pretty convincingly villager). And with at least one vote to spare, i think we go lighthousekeeper.

I won't defend myself too aggresivly, because that's quite the wolfish thing to do, but if it comes down a choice between myself and lighthousekeeper I'm voting lighthousekeeper because i KNOW that I'm a villager. I invite the seer to scan me tonight and let everyone know. And if the seer says I'm a wolf and you lynch me to try to get the win, well then you'll know that the false seer is actually a wolf and you can win it then.

VOTE LIGHTHOUSEKEEPER

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 06:01 PM

addendum: I am not at all saying that anyone in #3 is a wolf or even a likely suspect. Just laying EVERYTHING out in case I buy the farm.

I think the people in #3 (Bek, Oliegirl, Neuqua) are almost certainly villagers (unless one is a wolf playing a magnificent game). I think Glengoyne is either a villager or a wolf playing a pretty damm good game. I think lighthousekeeper has the highest probability of being a wolf.

Neuqua · 10-07-2006, 06:27 PM

VOTE LIGHTHOUSEKEEPER

Just too quiet. If he comes back and gives out some feedback on why he isn't a wolf, I may change my mind, but for now, I'm hoping we win this game today.

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 06:40 PM

thoughts on my analysis anyone?

Neuqua · 10-07-2006, 06:41 PM

Well it fits in more or less with my own analysis basically so, I guess that makes you brilliant.

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 06:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neuqua

Well it fits in more or less with my own analysis basically so, I guess that makes you brilliant.

nah. i think i'm just finally getting my mind around this game. and maybe it helps that we're all new to it too.

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 06:47 PM

aaah. finally the thread is active!

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 06:49 PM

4/6 of the remaining players are here...let's get some discussion going

oliegirl · 10-07-2006, 06:55 PM

Vote Lighthousekeeper

I'm on my phone, don't think I can bold...pm'd st.cronin to tell him, hopefully he will still count my vote...

I'm guessing that at this point the seer will scan DT and then fill us in on everything tomorrow???

I will try to check in again before deadline, but I'm at a tailgate party for the Georgia game...GO DAWGS!!!

Glengoyne · 10-07-2006, 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

thoughts on my analysis anyone?

I'm liking it. But, you're pretty much going along with what I was hoping to happen tonight. That being, we string up suspect #1, and then we hopefully get a definitive answer from the seer about suspect #2.

If lighthouse keeper is a villager, then you(DT) will need to be cleared by the seer or you are still on the block, in my opinion.

Glengoyne · 10-07-2006, 07:02 PM

Oh, I'd also like to add that I think I'm pretty much 100% certain that I've been viewed by the seer, and thereby cleared.

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 07:03 PM

I think we're pretty much set on lighthousekeeper than.

let me make this perfectly clear: I INVITE the seer to scan me and fill everyone in. If lighthousekeeper isnt' the wolf than (assuming a failure by the herbalist) we'll be down to 4-1. If the real seer comes out and reassures everyone I'm a villager (which i am) then we'll have the seer and myself as confirmed good-guys, and a 33% chance in a crapshoot (better with analysis) shot at the wolf. And even assuming we fail we are still left with one last night. If the wolf fakes a revelation as the seer then the real seer will come out and tell you all i'm a villager too. And then we'll know who the wolf is by the faking. And if you choose to believe that fake seer than you'll lynch me and be down to 4-1 with the certainty that the person who fingered me is the wolf and end the game then.

that's the math as i see it.

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 07:05 PM

why do you think you've been viewed and cleared Glen, as opposed to me, who has been much more vocal and involved in the game?

and you still havn't answered why you think I'm suspicious at all (which is only making me more suspicious of you, trying to divert attention from yourself?).

Seems like most other people think I'm in the clear and you were leaning villager on me earlier? Why am I anymore suspicious than oliegirl or neuqua? Bek fingered GE...I fingered Izulde. I'm not sure why I'm suspicious moreso than you or oliegirl?

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 07:07 PM

i'm just confused and trying to learn for my future education how i am not cleared of suspiscion yet?

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 07:21 PM

planning on answering me glen?

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 07:27 PM

nothing from lighthousekeeper since he threw GE under the bus although he said he'd post his person-by-person analysis later. i see him on here now too, hopefully he is doing that and responding to the fact he's the favorite to be lynched.

and Glen has had 20 minutes to respond to my post which I'm sure he's seen asking him why I'm still suspicious. hopefully he will respond too.

lighthousekeeper · 10-07-2006, 07:28 PM

well shit i just saved one of you yesterday and this is how you repay me? fine - i think we'll win out in the end anyway.

Glengoyne · 10-07-2006, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

planning on answering me glen?

Actually I did, or tried to. My response is apparently lost in the ether, actually spinning blindly in another browser window.

This is what I said...

I've been viewed and cleared precisely because of the lsg affair. I don't see any reason to believe that you would have been viewed.

I do see reasons that others in the game would have been viewed and cleared. Therefore you are a suspect, in my mind, until you are cleared by the seer.

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 07:30 PM

interesting last hour twist. lighthousekeeper claims to be the herbalist. who did you save last night lighthousekeeper? if you are the herbalist that would be valuable information in several ways.

Neuqua · 10-07-2006, 07:32 PM

Gentlemen, I think we nabbed ourself yet another wolf.

lighthousekeeper · 10-07-2006, 07:32 PM

if i say, will that help the ww anymore?

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 07:33 PM

i assume i would have been viewed because I have been (along with Bek) one of the 2-3 most active players in the game. But perhaps not. regardless, I invite the seer to view me tonight and reveal the results, as I posted a bit earlier.

interesting that lighthousekeeper is claiming to be the herbalist...i can see this being a wolfy trick (one that fooled me in my first game) but i can also see it being true. if true he ought to tell us who he saved last night and also give us more of a rundown on who he protected the other nights and why he thought them worthy of protection.

anything less indicates a desire to see us lose, which means he's a wolf.

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

if i say, will that help the ww anymore?

no. it will help us determine in this last hour of your existence in this game though some more information. and information is power.

lighthousekeeper · 10-07-2006, 07:35 PM

well i protected spleen last night - i guess it gets easier to protect correctlty as the game progresses, because before that i was wildly off. the night before i protected bek.

DaddyTorgo · 10-07-2006, 07:36 PM

for instance, who you protected last night was obviously someone the last WW wanted dead. so assuming you are the herbalist (which we will find out when you die), that person is 100% clear of being a wolf. along with the results from the seer scanning me and revealing, will give us enough of an edge to find the real wolf (again assuming it's not you) and end this game in our favor.

lighthousekeeper · 10-07-2006, 07:37 PM

so unfortunately for spleen that makes him the most likely target tonight now.

10-07-2006, 03:44 AM	#357
Neuqua Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago, Ill	Excellent job guys Though I'm not liking my chances anymore for tomorrow with GE coming to my aid the previous day. Doesn't bode well for me at all. Hopefully we can all have a good solid discussion tomorrow and find out who the last (or last couple) WWs are. __________________ Our Deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, 'Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?' Actually, who are you not to be?

10-07-2006, 09:51 AM	#359
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	You awake at dawn, and all villagers are present and accounted for! Day 5 has begun - tentative deadline at 8:30pm Saturday EST __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

10-07-2006, 10:14 AM	#360
lighthousekeeper College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000	well that's good news. maybe the wolves have decided that eating people is bad. but really i guess that either means the ww forgot to vote or they selected someone protected. It probably best for us to assume the latter, because that will give us some clues on who was selected to be eaten last night and who was protected. __________________ ...

10-07-2006, 12:15 PM	#361
Neuqua Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago, Ill	So we don't know which it is? We have to assume that either the wws forgot to vote or the herbalist protected the right guy? __________________ Our Deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, 'Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?' Actually, who are you not to be?

10-07-2006, 12:56 PM	#362
Neuqua Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago, Ill	People at this point whom I trust (In order) 1. Myself 2. Bek - No one would put the effort he did to lynch his own. Pretty obvious he's a villager. 3. Oliegirl - With the vote being so close, no reason for her to switch her vote yesterday to Goldeneagle if she knew he was a wolf. It's arguable her switching her vote is what started the massive piling onto Goldeneagle and no wolf would do that. 3. Glengoyne - Do not quite think he's a werewolf but there is a chance he is. Switched his vote to Goldeneagle after oliegirl and myself, but there was still a chance GE could not have been lynched and so Glen won him some trust from my part. I'm still not sure what to think of lighthousekeeper or DaddyTorgo at this point. Any ideas? __________________ Our Deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, 'Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?' Actually, who are you not to be?

10-06-2006, 11:06 PM	#352
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	early analysis in case I bite the dust: In the pile on GE therefore is at least one wolf. It's not Bek (who led the vote on GE) and it's not myself (who cast the earliest vote for Izulde and also switched early onto GE). Oliegirl, Nequea, Glengoyne, lighthousekeeper those are our 4 suspects. Do we assume there is only 1 wolf left so the seer and/or herbalist should reveal now? Not saying they should, just asking if anyone else thinks this is sound strategy. Personally I had thought earlier in the game (when i referred to a COT) of spleen, lighthousekeeper and myself. I don't recall any hard evidence why I had lighthouse there in my mind, I'll hafta look tomorrow afternoon. But if I can come up with some that narrows it down even further to 1/3. Even still, we have a 1/4 chance of striking right at this point (and even 1/5 if you don't believe Bek+myself are above suspiscion).

10-06-2006, 11:14 PM	#353
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	my thinking behind wondering if the seer should reveal: if the seer knows about 1-2 of the currently left villagers and was to reveal that it would dramatically lower the odds and the herbalist could protect them in the coming night and allow them to find out about ANOTHER player, which would lower the odds even more, to the point where we'd have several shots to take out the last remaining wolf.

10-06-2006, 11:17 PM	#354
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	and i think a fake-reveal would be discovered before it was too late. especially if the real seer followed up the fake-reveal, then we'd just lynch one and then the other.

10-06-2006, 11:51 PM	#355
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	you're lurking olie...what are your thoughts? or are you too busy howling at the moon?

10-07-2006, 12:03 AM	#356
Glengoyne Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Fresno, CA	I was all primed to vote for Neuqua, but GE was on my short list as well. I felt Bek was allright after reviewing that Izulde was voting for him. Honestly my suspicion for GE was that he was too quiet, plus he jumped on the bandwagon to oust me along with Izulde on top of that.

10-07-2006, 01:23 PM	#364
Glengoyne Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Fresno, CA	Oh I forgot to add that I'm curious to hear what my suspects have to say in their defense.

10-07-2006, 01:24 PM	#365
Neuqua Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago, Ill	Glen why do you still see me as a wolf? I think my actions yesterday had to show you atleast a little something about being on your side. The vote was 2-2 for Bek and myself. As soon as oliegirl changed her vote from me to Goldeneagle, I made the switch momentarily afterwards. If I knew GE was a wolf, that'd be a very stupid thing to do. Why not keep the vote on Bek, and instead have him at 2 votes while myself and GE spread out with one each? You can't seriously think I would be willing to sacrifice one of my own at this point. __________________ Our Deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, 'Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?' Actually, who are you not to be?

10-07-2006, 01:54 PM	#366
Glengoyne Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Fresno, CA	That was a good defense neuqua. What are your thoughts(or anyone's) on Daddy Torgo and Lighthousekeeper?

10-07-2006, 01:58 PM	#367
Neuqua Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago, Ill	The fact that we have 4 somewhat trustworthy villagers left means that if the seer has ANY information on either DT or lighthousekeeper then now would be the time to come out with it. The odds are starting to favor us more and it's about ripe time to win this game. __________________ Our Deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, 'Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?' Actually, who are you not to be?

10-07-2006, 03:04 PM	#369
Glengoyne Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Fresno, CA	My thoughts are that Neuqua was somewhat persuasive. Leaving the DT and Lighthouse to deal with. I'm more in favor of selecting one of those two, for the vote tonight. I don't think it would be wise for the seer to reveal themselves. As it is, the wolves will target who ever it was they targetted last night to get the sure kill. If that is the seer, they are gone in any case. I've got a hunch that our seer may not make it through the night, I'm taking last night's non event as a sign that the herbalist is in play as well. Based on that, if ANYONE is to "reveal" their role, it would have to be the herbalist. Who can confirm who they protected last night. That would give the wolves multiple targets, and set up a situation where the herbalist could protect the seer or the herbalist. It would be a game of chicken where either someone dies or the wolves get shut out. This option sounds fun, but risky. I vote we flip a coin. to determine which one of these two we hang.

10-07-2006, 03:28 PM	#370
Neuqua Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago, Ill	I don't know. I think it just may make sense at this point for the herbalist/seer to come out and tell us what they know now. I don't see myself/glen/olie surviving the night, one of us should be getting the axe. __________________ Our Deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, 'Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?' Actually, who are you not to be?

10-07-2006, 05:01 PM	#371
Glengoyne Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Fresno, CA	For now I'm going to vote for lighthousekeeper. I don't think there is much of a chance that the seer has viewed either lighthousekeeper or DT. So I think we lynch one and have the seer view the other. Tomorrow we should know more, if we all make it through the night. VOTE LIGHTHOUSEKEEPER

10-07-2006, 05:33 PM	#372
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	wedding done. store open. catching up on what's gone down.

10-07-2006, 05:41 PM	#373
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	wow. so the suspiscion has swung to me. let me defend myself: 1) i cast the first vote for izulde, the one that ended up dooming him because it was the earliest vote. why would a wolf do that and then not switch off at the end? 2) I switched off Bek and to GE because of something that Bek said, when that vote was still somewhat close. Switched off from my friend's rehearsal dinner for his wedding I'd like to point out. I was on Izulde quite early and stayed on him and presented decent evidence (although it was more of a "feel" with him). Presented good evidence on GE. If the village feels the need to lynch me, go right ahead. At least my death will narrow the odds, but I am a villager. Not the seer, not the herbalist, just a straight villager. So lynching me will help insofar as it at least cuts down the possible # of people the wolf could be, but I'd like to see us review the voting histories and posts of the people I listed as suspects last night and see if we can't come up with a better vote that will get us the last wolf.

10-07-2006, 05:54 PM	#374
Neuqua Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago, Ill	DT, I'd love to hear your analysis on who may not be a wolf of those remaining. __________________ Our Deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, 'Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?' Actually, who are you not to be?

10-07-2006, 05:57 PM	#375
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	okay...I'm leaning towards Neuqua as a villager. His point about his voting history makes sense. I don't understand why you think I'm a wolf at all Glen. To me that's VERY suspicious (although I suppose anyone would say that). Sorry I jumped on you about the LSG affair, it seemed like you had tipped something when it retrospect it seems possible/probable that you were just a n00b who said something a little too forcefully. Honestly I'm not convinced you're a villager STILL Glen, but you're definately not on the top of my list. My list of suspects: 1) lighthousekeeper - has played a very quiet, under the radar type game. hasn't contributed much after the beginning of the game Big Dropoff to 2) Glengoyne - Only because he suspects me and I know I'm innocent EVEN LARGER DROPOFF DOWN TO 3) If neither of these two is a wolf then we would need to look long and hard at someone like Bek (maybe the whole argument with GE was staged to put him above suspicion?), Oliegirl (has voted anti-WW and early but hasn't done anything to put her far-and-away in the villager camp) and Neuqua (same with the exception of what would have been sacrificing GE last night). Let me emphasize that I feel that #1 is our most likely bet to nail a wolf, followed by a large dropoff to #2 (on my radar but a less obvious choice) and then the #3 suspects (who i just list for the sake of having a total list, i find them all pretty convincingly villager). And with at least one vote to spare, i think we go lighthousekeeper. I won't defend myself too aggresivly, because that's quite the wolfish thing to do, but if it comes down a choice between myself and lighthousekeeper I'm voting lighthousekeeper because i KNOW that I'm a villager. I invite the seer to scan me tonight and let everyone know. And if the seer says I'm a wolf and you lynch me to try to get the win, well then you'll know that the false seer is actually a wolf and you can win it then. VOTE LIGHTHOUSEKEEPER

10-07-2006, 06:01 PM	#376
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	addendum: I am not at all saying that anyone in #3 is a wolf or even a likely suspect. Just laying EVERYTHING out in case I buy the farm. I think the people in #3 (Bek, Oliegirl, Neuqua) are almost certainly villagers (unless one is a wolf playing a magnificent game). I think Glengoyne is either a villager or a wolf playing a pretty damm good game. I think lighthousekeeper has the highest probability of being a wolf.

10-07-2006, 06:27 PM	#377
Neuqua Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago, Ill	VOTE LIGHTHOUSEKEEPER Just too quiet. If he comes back and gives out some feedback on why he isn't a wolf, I may change my mind, but for now, I'm hoping we win this game today. __________________ Our Deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, 'Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?' Actually, who are you not to be?

10-07-2006, 06:40 PM	#378
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	thoughts on my analysis anyone?

10-07-2006, 06:41 PM	#379
Neuqua Pro Rookie Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Chicago, Ill	Well it fits in more or less with my own analysis basically so, I guess that makes you brilliant. __________________ Our Deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, 'Who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous?' Actually, who are you not to be?

10-07-2006, 06:47 PM	#381
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	aaah. finally the thread is active!

10-07-2006, 06:49 PM	#382
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	4/6 of the remaining players are here...let's get some discussion going

10-07-2006, 07:02 PM	#385
Glengoyne Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Fresno, CA	Oh, I'd also like to add that I think I'm pretty much 100% certain that I've been viewed by the seer, and thereby cleared.

10-07-2006, 07:03 PM	#386
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	I think we're pretty much set on lighthousekeeper than. let me make this perfectly clear: I INVITE the seer to scan me and fill everyone in. If lighthousekeeper isnt' the wolf than (assuming a failure by the herbalist) we'll be down to 4-1. If the real seer comes out and reassures everyone I'm a villager (which i am) then we'll have the seer and myself as confirmed good-guys, and a 33% chance in a crapshoot (better with analysis) shot at the wolf. And even assuming we fail we are still left with one last night. If the wolf fakes a revelation as the seer then the real seer will come out and tell you all i'm a villager too. And then we'll know who the wolf is by the faking. And if you choose to believe that fake seer than you'll lynch me and be down to 4-1 with the certainty that the person who fingered me is the wolf and end the game then. that's the math as i see it.

10-07-2006, 07:05 PM	#387
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	why do you think you've been viewed and cleared Glen, as opposed to me, who has been much more vocal and involved in the game? and you still havn't answered why you think I'm suspicious at all (which is only making me more suspicious of you, trying to divert attention from yourself?). Seems like most other people think I'm in the clear and you were leaning villager on me earlier? Why am I anymore suspicious than oliegirl or neuqua? Bek fingered GE...I fingered Izulde. I'm not sure why I'm suspicious moreso than you or oliegirl?

10-07-2006, 07:07 PM	#388
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	i'm just confused and trying to learn for my future education how i am not cleared of suspiscion yet?

10-07-2006, 07:21 PM	#389
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	planning on answering me glen?

10-07-2006, 07:27 PM	#390
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	nothing from lighthousekeeper since he threw GE under the bus although he said he'd post his person-by-person analysis later. i see him on here now too, hopefully he is doing that and responding to the fact he's the favorite to be lynched. and Glen has had 20 minutes to respond to my post which I'm sure he's seen asking him why I'm still suspicious. hopefully he will respond too.

10-07-2006, 07:28 PM	#391
lighthousekeeper College Starter Join Date: Oct 2000	well shit i just saved one of you yesterday and this is how you repay me? fine - i think we'll win out in the end anyway. __________________ ...

10-07-2006, 07:30 PM	#393
DaddyTorgo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Massachusetts	interesting last hour twist. lighthousekeeper claims to be the herbalist. who did you save last night lighthousekeeper? if you are the herbalist that would be valuable information in several ways.