Werewolf LXII -- The BCS (Racer and Swaggs win)

[ntndeacon]

Challenge chesapeake

Vote molson

[Racer]

Okay, here is the record breakdown by conference

Conference 1
Chesopeake 1-1 100 points
Molson 1-1 40 points
Lathum 1-1 42 points
Path12 0-2 -10 points

Conference 2
1. claphamsa 2-0 140 points
2. ntndeacon 1-1 100 points
3. Mr. Wednesday 1-1 90 points
4. St. Cronin 2-0 62 points

Conference 3
1. Racer 1-1 90 points
1. Barkeep 1-1 90 points
3. Chief Rum 1-1 65 points
4. Swaggs 1-1 48 points

Conference 4
1. Jeheinz 2-0 190 points
2. Sndvls 0-2 0 points
3. Anxiety 0-2 0 points
4. Render 0-2 -10 points

The people who received 10 point hits the first day were Chief Rum (conference 3), Render (conference 4), and path 12 (conference 1).

The people who received 10 point hits the second day were Barkeep (conference 3), myself (conference 3), and Mr. Wednesday (conference 2).

The only person who hasn't received a 10 point deduction in my conference at this point is Swaggs. I'm guessing the detractors are the ones hitting people with the 10 point deductions (since they don't seem to be tied to any roles). Of course this doesn't mean Swaggs is a detractor. They could just be trying to trick us.

Also in addition to the seer in my conference, conference 2's seer also has not chosen to throw a game at least one of the days.

[Racer]

Oh I didn't see that St. Cronin had already updated the standings.

[RendeR]

I don't see how revealing everything hurts the good guys much, sure the detratores know who we are, they know that already, but if we all reveal we know who they are too and can keep voting sanctions accordingly to keep them out of the BCS game.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I don't see how revealing everything hurts the good guys much, sure the detratores know who we are, they know that already, but if we all reveal we know who they are too and can keep voting sanctions accordingly to keep them out of the BCS game.

Barkeep, you're on right now. What are your thoughts on publicly revealing the roles in our conference? We already revealed them to each other which means the detractors probably know our roles also.

[RendeR]

I'd like to start a list of Scanned people and the results:

Please post who you scanned and what they turned up as:


I scanned Lathum, he scanned villager.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Racer

The people who received 10 point hits the second day were Barkeep (conference 3), myself (conference 3), and Mr. Wednesday (conference 2).

And claphamsa, also in conference 2.

As I said before, either ntndeacon is the detractor in our conference (and also is either the detractor seer, which I doubt, or is being erroneously vouched by Alan/now path12), or the detractor took a -10 in order to foster trust.

cronin's continuing crusade against me is starting to make me a little suspicious.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I don't see how revealing everything hurts the good guys much, sure the detratores know who we are, they know that already, but if we all reveal we know who they are too and can keep voting sanctions accordingly to keep them out of the BCS game.

Uh, no, actually, we don't know who they are, because they all have roles as well.

I don't see that we have a huge amount to gain from knowing what anybody is aside from the scouts... among them, one is an unidentifiable detractor, but we should be OK if we can keep them in the bottom half of the conference. Everyone else... well, so we know that I'm a lobbyist, what good does that do you, exactly?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

And claphamsa, also in conference 2.

As I said before, either ntndeacon is the detractor in our conference (and also is either the detractor seer, which I doubt, or is being erroneously vouched by Alan/now path12), or the detractor took a -10 in order to foster trust.

cronin's continuing crusade against me is starting to make me a little suspicious.

I don't have a crusade against you; I'm playing to win my conference. Maybe that's too simple an approach, but I feel its the best way to play.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Uh, no, actually, we don't know who they are, because they all have roles as well.

I don't see that we have a huge amount to gain from knowing what anybody is aside from the scouts... among them, one is an unidentifiable detractor, but we should be OK if we can keep them in the bottom half of the conference. Everyone else... well, so we know that I'm a lobbyist, what good does that do you, exactly?

Okay, lets say you're a detractor and a seer scans you and announces that you are a detractor. Since we know the detractors have exactly one of each role, we would then know every other lobbyist is a good guy and then the seers wouldn't have to scan them.

[Racer]

Okay, so I feel the best route to go in terms of getting points is to play a team with a similar amount of points to me so

Challenge Mr. Wednesday

[SnDvls]

challenge 75

this is the best way for me to get some points and try to catch up to others without helping others as well.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by Racer

Okay, here is the record breakdown by conference

Conference 1
Chesopeake 1-1 100 points
Molson 1-1 40 points
Lathum 1-1 42 points
Path12 0-2 -10 points

Conference 2
1. claphamsa 2-0 140 points
2. ntndeacon 1-1 100 points
3. Mr. Wednesday 1-1 90 points
4. St. Cronin 2-0 62 points

Conference 3
1. Racer 1-1 90 points
1. Barkeep 1-1 90 points
3. Chief Rum 1-1 65 points
4. Swaggs 1-1 48 points

Conference 4
1. Jeheinz 2-0 190 points
2. Sndvls 0-2 0 points
3. Anxiety 0-2 0 points
4. Render 0-2 -10 points

The people who received 10 point hits the first day were Chief Rum (conference 3), Render (conference 4), and path 12 (conference 1).

The people who received 10 point hits the second day were Barkeep (conference 3), myself (conference 3), and Mr. Wednesday (conference 2).

The only person who hasn't received a 10 point deduction in my conference at this point is Swaggs. I'm guessing the detractors are the ones hitting people with the 10 point deductions (since they don't seem to be tied to any roles). Of course this doesn't mean Swaggs is a detractor. They could just be trying to trick us.

Also in addition to the seer in my conference, conference 2's seer also has not chosen to throw a game at least one of the days.

I received both a 10 and a 50 point hit last ngiht

[Racer]

I've thought this through. If all conferences reveal their conferences roles, then the probability of each conference being able to win should increase while the probability of the detractors winning should decrease. The reason for this is because if a scout finds out that a detractor in a specific conference is lobbyist and a second scout confirms it (since there is one bad scout), then the three good scouts don't need to scout any of the remaining lobbyists since they all have to be good since there is only one lobbyist who is a detractor. Thus revealing roles can eliminate people from being detractors without ever scouting them assuming the scouts hit just one detractor. Here are the roles in my conference:

Barkeep: Lobbyist
Chief Rum: Saboteur
Racer: Equipment Manager
Swaggs: Scout

Again, whoever the detractor is in my conference probably already gave this information to the other detractors since everyone in my conference role revealed to one another.

[Abe Sargent]

I challenge path

[Racer]

Schedule Team 50

in case Mr. Wednesday doesn't accept my challenge and

Vote Swaggs

He definitely didn't throw the game in week one to scout someone since he won and I haven't received a PM with any information he might have gained in week two so I can't comment on that. He could just have been busy lately. However, everyone except him in my conference has also received ten points deductions so far although I think there is a chance the detractors could be setting him up.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Racer

I've thought this through. If all conferences reveal their conferences roles, then the probability of each conference being able to win should increase while the probability of the detractors winning should decrease. The reason for this is because if a scout finds out that a detractor in a specific conference is lobbyist and a second scout confirms it (since there is one bad scout), then the three good scouts don't need to scout any of the remaining lobbyists since they all have to be good since there is only one lobbyist who is a detractor. Thus revealing roles can eliminate people from being detractors without ever scouting them assuming the scouts hit just one detractor. Here are the roles in my conference:

Barkeep: Lobbyist
Chief Rum: Saboteur
Racer: Equipment Manager
Swaggs: Scout

Again, whoever the detractor is in my conference probably already gave this information to the other detractors since everyone in my conference role revealed to one another.

So did Swaggs throw his game yesterday, or did he lose randomly?

[Racer]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

So did Swaggs throw his game yesterday, or did he lose randomly?

I have no idea. I haven't received a PM from him.

[st.cronin]

Ok. Well I'll just say that in our conference we know who the scout is, but not who he has scanned (if anybody). We're still working on whether its a good idea to let that out.

[Lathum]

schedule team 36

[chesapeake]

Originally Posted by Racer

The people who received 10 point hits the first day were Chief Rum (conference 3), Render (conference 4), and path 12 (conference 1).

The people who received 10 point hits the second day were Barkeep (conference 3), myself (conference 3), and Mr. Wednesday (conference 2).

Just to be complete, St. Cronin also got hit on day 1 and Claphamsa and jeheinz got hit on day 2.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Racer, unless I were to play one of the teams with 100 points or more (and on their side, I don't see why they would want to play me), I get more benefit from playing one of the team XX's. If I play you, I have a 50/50 chance of winning 45 pts. If I play team 50, I have a 50/50 chance of winning 50 pts. (I'm actually making a less-than-max-EV play by scheduling team 60, but I rather go for the bigger total...)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, that is, jeheinz, who I've already played, and claphamsa, who's in my own conference, might benefit by playing me, but they're off the table for obvious reasons.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

So did Swaggs throw his game yesterday, or did he lose randomly?

I lost randomly.

[Racer]

I changed my mind. I'm not ready to vote to sanction someone in my own conference yet.

Unvote Swaggs
Vote claphamsa

Just going off what Mr. Wednesday said earlier.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Racer, unless I were to play one of the teams with 100 points or more (and on their side, I don't see why they would want to play me), I get more benefit from playing one of the team XX's. If I play you, I have a 50/50 chance of winning 45 pts. If I play team 50, I have a 50/50 chance of winning 50 pts. (I'm actually making a less-than-max-EV play by scheduling team 60, but I rather go for the bigger total...)

Ah that makes sense. For some reason I was thinking the winner would be getting 90 points.

[Chief Rum]

All right, another set of mass actions...

Public Poll

1. Racer
2. Barkeep
3. Chief Rum
4. Swaggs
5. path12

Sanctions...

VOTE NTNDEACON

And I will play...

SCHEDULE TEAM 40

[Racer]

Now that I'm actually awake and have reread the rules I'll go ahead and officially

Unchallenge Mr. Wednesday

[claphamsa]

challenge team 79

[Alan T]

Schedule team 40

Vote jeheinz72 - obviously with such a huge lead, they must have alumnis paying highschoolers to commit to their school!

Poll:

#1 Notre Dame
#2 jeheinz72
#3 claphasma
#4 st.cronin
#5 chesapeake

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Schedule team 40

Vote jeheinz72 - obviously with such a huge lead, they must have alumnis paying highschoolers to commit to their school!

Poll:

#1 Notre Dame
#2 jeheinz72
#3 claphasma
#4 st.cronin
#5 chesapeake

Sorry -- Notre Dame doesn't get a vote!

[Lathum]

vote Jheinze

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Sorry -- Notre Dame doesn't get a vote!

That is fine, those votes can remain as an indication on how all of the smaller schools should be voting. Lead by example, I always say.

[chesapeake]

Accept ntndeacon

[molson]

Originally Posted by chesapeake

I do not believe that Alan T -- now path12 -- is the detractor. All the work and advice that Alan provided as a member of my conference appeared to me to be pretty useful and ultimately hurt the wolves. Lathum cannot be the evil seer, as our conference's seer is well known, leaving Molson and myself as the possible detractors. It ain't me. So if RendeR is telling the truth, than Molson is a detractor.

My only worry is this. Lathum and Molson are about tied for second in my conference (42 and 40 PPs respectively). This could be a ploy by the wolves to help Lathum cement his position in 2nd place with the hopes that he would secure the BCS at-large bid. That seems a bit far-fetched to me for day 3, however, as many things can change between now and then.

Vote Molson

My first thought here is that this clears things up and I need to vote chesapeake for sanctions. But I'm also always suspcicious of AlanT, even when he's helpful (because he's always helpful). Though that may be stretching it in this particular game, and I haven't digested everything they way I need to at this point.

I don't really have much better to go on anywhere else, though I'm also not a big fan of trying to impose sanctions falsely on someone in my own conference. That's something that could be the difference between us getting an at-large bit later on.

So I'll keep my non-sanction voting for now, though I might revisit it in a close vote

VOTE NO SANCTIONS

CHALLENGE 65

PUBLIC POLLL (Just going with my conference and then the overall points leader)
1. Lathum
2. Path12
3. Molson
4. Chesopeake
5. Jeheinz

[molson]

Shit - no idea why that posted 3 times - permission to delete 2?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by molson

Shit - no idea why that posted 3 times - permission to delete 2?

That's fine. I was only going to count one of them, anyway. Nice job trying to trick me, though!

[molson]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

That's fine. I was only going to count one of them, anyway. Nice job trying to trick me, though!

I can't get nothing past you.

2 Duplicate posts deleted.

[st.cronin]

CHALLENGE TEAM 45

[Swaggs]

Anyone want to schedule an OOC game with me?

First come, first serve.

[Barkeep49]

For the record: I delete multiple posts whenever I catch them.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

For the record: I delete multiple posts whenever I catch them.

How am I supposed to up my postcount then?

[SnDvls]

public poll

1. RendeR
2. Path
3. SnDvls
4. Anxiety
5. Lathum

vote no sanctions (at this point)

going with my same voting pattern as last time

[Mr. Wednesday]

VOTE NO SANCTIONS

Public poll:
1. jeheinz72
2. Mr. Wednesday
3. claphamsa
4. chesapeake
5. Barkeep49

[path12]

Originally Posted by Anxiety

I challenge path

Sorry, I can't see where it's a good idea for me to accept challenges.

SCHEDULE TEAM 20

[path12]

Finally caught up. I've already been outed as the scout in my conference, so I just want the other scouts to know that both my first two scans were in conference #2, as will today's -- so I will know the detractor in that conference by the end of the day.

I'm not coming out publicly yet with who has been scanned though until I get a bit more feel as to what's what.

[path12]

Why are we voting jeheinz in the public poll? Doesn't it make a case towards him being the detractor by being 2-0 while the rest of his conf is 0-2 and 0 or -10 points?

[Mr. Wednesday]

At this point, the public poll doesn't matter, so I don't care if I might be voting for a detractor. I'll care a lot more once the poll counts.

[Abe Sargent]

Challenge Team 33

[path12]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

At this point, the public poll doesn't matter, so I don't care if I might be voting for a detractor. I'll care a lot more once the poll counts.

Gotcha. OK then.

PUBLIC POLL
1) Chesapeake
2) Lathum
3) Molson
4) Mr W.
5) ntndeacon

VOTE JEHEINZ