03-10-2012, 12:15 PM | #351 |
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DOLA - and let's face it, it's Dan Snyder and the Redskins. If they weren't trading them, they'd be drafting busts or trading them next year for some 34 year old washup. I liked what somebody said above about the chances of you actually getting an all-pro with your first round pick being less than 50-50. If RG3 is as good as advertised, people forget about the Redskins overpaying here in a hurry.
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03-10-2012, 12:33 PM | #352 |
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All we need now is for Tuesday evening RGIII to be arrested for drunk driving & have a couple joints on him.
Not wishing the young man any ill will... just the Redskins! |
03-10-2012, 01:51 PM | #353 | |
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The price the Skins paid was greater than other teams have paid when they have been in a similar situation (Giants - Chargers in the 00's, Cardinals - Chargers in the 90's, I think more than Denver paid Baltimore in the 80's). That's how I would judge that they overpaid. You can argue this is a unique time in the league's history where a QB has more value than any other time and the salary structure with the fairly new rookie wage scale makes it more valuable than any previous time and there's some merit to that. I guess I would say it's a high risk high reward move for Washington and for the Rams, they just won the lottery. |
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03-10-2012, 02:00 PM | #354 |
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On second thought...
RGIII can't come to a contract with the Skins, holds out & re-enters the draft. Skins earn the top pick. Next year, the Rams open the bidding for the top pick! Dan Snyder is in such bad shape he is mistaken in public for Al Davis. |
03-10-2012, 02:26 PM | #355 | |
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The Chargers traded down got a 1st, a 3rd, a 5th, and a top 4 pick QB. Maybe that's less, but I don't think they make the trade without getting that top 4 pick QB, they wouldn't have settled for just some future first round pick years down the road instead. But from your perspective, you don't make this trade if you're Washington - but would you make it if it was just trading picks, 1 extra first, a 3rd, and a 5th like the Giants gave up? If so, you're going to turn down this trade and move forward with Rex Grossman because you desperately want to hang on to your 2013 first round pick, which would be the difference between the two trade possibilities. If you hold onto the 2013 1st, it's only going to be a high pick if you're still terrible, in which case you'll need to take a QB high there anyway and rebuild again. I guess just personally, I think 1st round picks are incredibly overrated, especially when they're more than a year in the future. You're just trading for hope. And the reality is rarely going to match that hope. I'm always going to prefer the player I know I'm getting, in the spot it makes sense to get him in, for my team at that time - whether that be through the draft or free agency. Last edited by molson : 03-10-2012 at 02:31 PM. |
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03-10-2012, 02:46 PM | #356 | |
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So you know what you are getting in RGIII but the 4 picks they are getting will be complete unknowns. Is that the case you are making? |
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03-10-2012, 02:52 PM | #357 |
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Arent you a Pats fan molson?
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03-10-2012, 03:35 PM | #358 | |
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There is as much known about RGIII as there will be about those other picks. Washington traded on hope as well. If I'm the 2nd worst team in the league, I can trade down to still get my guy, get three more high picks after that, then please sign me up.
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03-10-2012, 04:08 PM | #359 |
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it's a market valuation universe. i don't think 1st's are the holy cows they used to be.
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03-10-2012, 04:12 PM | #360 |
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I think they've become a little more useful with the new salary rules, but 1st rounders (hell, draft picks in general), that I still think they are often overvalued.
We'll see if RG3 can handle the ungodly amount of pressure that is going to be squarely on him from the second he arrives in Washington. ...I'd certainly get a chuckle out of Indy drafting RG3 instead of Luck, though. Better yet, Washington pulls a Minnesota, fails to get their draft pick submitted in time, and the Vikings wind up snatching RG3. Last edited by Coffee Warlord : 03-10-2012 at 04:15 PM. |
03-10-2012, 06:42 PM | #361 |
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It might end up working out for Washington, but it's definitely a great deal for the Rams.
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03-10-2012, 10:00 PM | #362 |
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Great trade for the Rams obviously, but I like the deal for the Redskins as well. I love Griffin as a prospect and if you think he is one of the future franchise QB's, then it is not too much to give up at all. You just don't get that many opportunities to get a top level QB and they make such a huge difference, especially in today's NFL.
A far worse move was the recent three year 42 million extension the Jets gave Mark Sanchez. Would he even be a starter if he wasn't a pretty boy from USC? |
03-10-2012, 10:22 PM | #363 |
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What is the consensus on Bradford vs. RG III? I know the Rams had to make this deal, but it seems like they are getting the QB with less potential.
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03-10-2012, 10:24 PM | #364 |
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I'd certainly take Griffin, but I still think Bradford could be a nice QB. Not an elite level guy, but maybe a Matt Ryan type if they surround him with more talent.
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03-10-2012, 10:28 PM | #365 | |
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RGIII is still all about potential. Bradford showed promise as a rookie and then injuries to him and the team sunk things. Since he plays in the NFC West, it shouldn't take much to be the 2nd best team there and thus in the run for a playoff spot. I personally prefer giving QBs a shot and build around them the best you can and see what happens versus dumping a guy after 1-2 years. Hell, Detroit is just now finding out about how Stafford really plays out.
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03-10-2012, 10:41 PM | #366 |
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Plus its not really choosing between Bradford and Griffin, its choosing between Bradford and three other first round picks vs. Griffin. They clearly made the right move
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03-10-2012, 11:08 PM | #367 | |
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This. And I'm one of those people who really wanted Miami to move up and get the #2 pick.
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03-10-2012, 11:20 PM | #368 |
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03-11-2012, 07:10 AM | #369 |
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While I think the Rams clearly got a great deal in this trade...the skins really have to do "something" to address the QB position. As others pointed out...the Rams can now give Bradford more time to either sink or swim as an NFL QB and they'll have a few more draft picks to work with if he doesn't (or they can get more weapons for him if he does).
If you're shooting for consistent success in the NFL, you have got to have a capable QB. You can get by 1 season and make a little 10-6 run (likely with a softer schedule), possibly win your division, maybe even win a first round playoff game...but you will be bounced pretty soon thereafter without a cohesive QB. If you have an outstanding defense, maybe you get to the conference championship. And if you get a little lucky, perhaps you make and possibly win a Superbowl on the right season with the right opponent and the right alignment of everything in the universe. But you're right back to 6-10, 5-11 the next season without a viable QB as you simply can't sustain that level of play at every other position for years on end. If I were a fan of Washington, I'd be happy to see them doing something to address the QB position. Having said all that....if RG3 is NOT what they apparently think he is...then yeah, this trade will look terrible in a few seasons. You dont do this type of trade for a decent & somewhat competent starting QB...you do this for a true franchise QB with superstar capabilities. I'd point out that not too long ago the consensus was that the Chargers got the better of the Manning/Rivers deal when you consider that: (a) the Chargers had gotten Merriman with the other 1st rd pick from the Giants. (b) Eli appeared to have taken longer than Rivers to fully develop. I say appeared as there are so many factors that go into development time of a QB and if you flipped both QBs back to their original draft team...who knows what the development time might have looked like? (c) Some people (myself included) felt Roethlisberger was the best QB to draft and thought it was a waste to overlook him at the #4 spot the Giants were drafting at. As always, time will tell with this stuff. I don't personally have a strong opinion on RG3. From the limitied games/highlights I've seen of him, he really is a talent. But I think it will be the intangibles that make or break RG3, this trade, as well as the wisdom of whether his game can last for more than just a couple of seasons in the NFL before his legs get slowed to the point of being quick, rather than explosive. If his game requires his legs to setup his arm...then I think this is a bad gamble. If the consensus is that he's "Mike Vick, only with a better work ethic & smarter"...then this could be a the guy you pull the trigger on no matter the cost. Last edited by SteveMax58 : 03-11-2012 at 07:11 AM. |
03-11-2012, 07:21 AM | #370 |
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To be fair, this ended up being the deciding factor in who won the Chargers/Giants trade.
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03-11-2012, 09:58 AM | #371 | |
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That's true, RGIII is certainly no guarantee either, but he's an actual player that you can make an up/down decision on, rather than just a random 2014 draft pick. In 2014 you might find yourself in a spot that isn't great for you - maybe you have a specific need and you're not in the ideal spot in the draft to address it, maybe it's a weak draft in that spot for the player you want, and suddenly you have to trade out again. In general, I prefer the actual player who you can evaluate - especially here where you can decide whether you want to build your team around him or not. Maybe you want RGIII maybe you don't - but if I really want him, don't decide not to pull the trigger over a 2014 first round draft pick, that, like I said, is only going to be really worth anything if you're still terrible, and if that's the case, you'll need a QB then anyway. And that's the difference we're talking about here, I think, that the Redskins "overpaid", but that trading picks and throwing in another first (2013), and a few lower picks, like the Giants did, would have been worth it. That's the difference people are freaking out over, a 2014 1st round pick. To decide not to get a player you really want because you need that 2014 1st round pick - that's just not being aggressive enough IMO. Including a 2014 first round pick = BURN EVERYTHING DOWN THE REDSKINS ARE CRAZY; Not including a 2014 first round pick: Good move for the Redskins. Nothing illustrates the overvaluation of 1st round picks in the NFL to me more than that. Last edited by molson : 03-11-2012 at 01:02 PM. |
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03-11-2012, 09:59 AM | #372 |
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Yes indeed. If your point is that you don't HAVE to get your QB in the first 5 picks, that's true, but it's definitely generally the better bet to try to grab one of those guys. I've really appreciated being a fan of a team that's had that QB position locked up for a decade, and I just see teams like the Redskins and it's just awful....get a damn QB, your team isn't going anywhere without one. If you think RGIII is the guy, get him, if not, have a plan to get someone else. Going out there every Sunday with GrossBeck, that's just sad. Last edited by molson : 03-11-2012 at 10:05 AM. |
03-11-2012, 12:37 PM | #373 |
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03-11-2012, 12:47 PM | #374 | |
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Actually my point was that you out of all people should know how useful draft picks can be. Bellichek has turned the NFL draft into personal puppet show with him being the master. The Patriots are so far ahead of the other teams in understanding the value of the draft its not even funny. |
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03-11-2012, 12:51 PM | #375 | |
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Even there, I'm not a huge fan of always trading down and ahead to future years. I think there's a time value of present draft picks. It seems like a lot of times they don't like their spot so they trade down and forward, and then the next year, they don't like the spot still and they trade down and forward again. People talked like they raped the Raiders in that Richard Seymour trade, and Nate Solder has been good, but it would have been nice to have Seymour around the last three years. Last edited by molson : 03-11-2012 at 12:53 PM. |
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03-11-2012, 12:57 PM | #376 | |
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Well more specifically how he will trade out of a spot for extra picks if he doesnt see value or if they see someone they want to get they have all of these extra picks accumulated so they can move up to get him. I can understand the Pats willingness to give up extra picks to move up because they do a fantastic job of getting extra picks down the road. I just dont think the skins have a clue on how to go about business with no early picks over the next few years. If Barkley had decided to enter the draft the skins might have gotten their guy without having to give up anything. Poor Redskins Last edited by jbergey22 : 03-11-2012 at 12:58 PM. |
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03-11-2012, 01:59 PM | #377 | |
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Might be nice if he could draft a secondary though.
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03-11-2012, 02:08 PM | #378 | |
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03-11-2012, 09:33 PM | #379 | |
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Would you be praising the Redskins if they gave up 5 or 7 first round picks for him? Obviously you draw the line at overpaying at some point. This is one of the highest hauls a draft pick has ever brought, so that's why I stated I felt like they overpaid. They're putting a lot of eggs in the basket for a player that is unproven. Between 1998-2007 (the only years I have in a quick study I looked up, not trying to cherry pick), 46% of quarterbacks selected in the first round were busts (looking at the list, about 5 QBs taken in the top 5 picks as well). Giving up a first round pick is a much bigger deal than a second round pick because there's far less variation in value between giving up a high second round pick vs. a low second round pick than a high first round pick and a low first round pick. EDIT: Also consider, if this wasn't overpaying, why didn't any number of teams jump in with a better offer? The Browns or Seahawks aren't desperate for a QB too? Last edited by JAG : 03-11-2012 at 09:35 PM. |
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03-11-2012, 09:37 PM | #380 | |
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Well, 5 or 7 is more than 1, so I'd say that's quite a bit different. And what people are freaking out over is that one extra 2014 pick, so that's what I'm focusing on. If it's 2015-2020 also, it's a different discussion. Last edited by molson : 03-11-2012 at 09:38 PM. |
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03-11-2012, 09:43 PM | #381 | |
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And what's the % of players generally are busts in the first round top to bottom? Because that's what the Redskins would be holding onto by holding onto that 2014 1st round pick. Obviously, all this depends on their determination that RB3 is a guy they want to build their franchise around. If he's not, obviously it's ridiculous to build your team around him in this way. But if this is, absolutely, the guy you want to build your team around, and you're willing to tie this franchise fortunes, at least for the next 4-5 years or so, to THIS guy, then I don't see how a 2014 1st round pick is the thing that transforms this from a good trade to a terrible one. Again, if you hold onto the 2014 pick, and it turns out to be a top 3 pick or something, then that's because the last 3 years were a waste anyway, so you're starting from scratch (probably with a QB again, of course by then, Mike Shanahan is long out of a job...so from Shanahan's perspective, if he's still with the team in 2014, it will only be because the team is good, which would make the pick not very good). Last edited by molson : 03-11-2012 at 09:55 PM. |
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03-11-2012, 09:59 PM | #382 | |
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I think most teams do overvalue 1st round picks. Those teams perhaps preferred to have an outside chance at getting a serviceable nickle DB or something in the first round 3 years from now. Or maybe they they're happy with what they have at QB. Or maybe they think they'll go 1-15 next year and end up with Matt Barkley. Or maybe they think RB3 will not be a great QB. Either way, if you're in QB hell, I think you have to go after a QB ASAP - especially if there's one available that you really, really like. You're not going to hit every time, and if you're wrong, you might kill your franchise for a few years. But if you're in QB hell, you're dead anyway. Last edited by molson : 03-11-2012 at 10:00 PM. |
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03-11-2012, 10:26 PM | #383 |
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or there is the other route for building a team. Build up the rest of your team so that when you do find that franchise QB he isnt out there getting killed and losing confidence.
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03-12-2012, 08:20 AM | #384 | |
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To answer your first question, I found a link to a study from '89-'03 that gave bust percentages for each position: Kluck: Wrapping up the draft - ESPN Page 2 QB -- 53 percent RB -- 49 percent WR -- 45 percent DT -- 33 percent OL -- 31 percent DE -- 31 percent CB -- 29 percent LB -- 16 percent S -- 11 percent It's kind of odd that you're arguing that the 'known' (RG3) is better than the unknown (first round picks), when RG3 has no known body of work in the NFL. The Bears gave up two first round picks (one of them 18th overall), a third, and Orton to pick up Cutler who was 25 years old and coming off a Pro Bowl season. That was what they traded for a young QB who at least had some proven success in the league. |
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03-12-2012, 08:35 AM | #385 |
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For the record I think Griffin could end up being awesome, and his personality sure makes it easy to want to see him succeed. But I don't think enough is being made of his need to adapt to a more traditional offense. He very rarely wasn't looking at the whole defense from snap to throw, and also rarely needed to go beyond his first read.
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03-12-2012, 08:46 AM | #386 | ||
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From that article, they list these players as the safest, least likey bust candidates. Quote:
Only 2 of them have become top notch players, most of these guys have seriously underperformed. I think it safe to say his analysis wasn't terribly great. The best/most depressing part, from a Bears fan? Three of the busts all wound up playing for Chicago. |
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03-12-2012, 08:47 AM | #387 |
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03-12-2012, 09:05 AM | #388 | |
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Sample size. He looked at 15 years and tried to extrapolate the results for 2004 based on that. Tell me that the numbers fail over a longer period of time and I'll go along with what you're saying. |
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03-12-2012, 09:24 AM | #389 | |
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QBs, more than any other position really, are the guys you kind of have to invest in when they're an unknown. If you have the philosophy that you're not going to commit heavily to an unknown player, you could get a QB through free agency, but the odds are probably against you. It's much easier to fill in other needs through free agency. But they ultimately have to make the call on him, unknown or not. If they're right, it's a good deal, if they're wrong, their franchise is screwed up for a while. But if you really like him and think he's great, it may be a mistake to pass and just wait for a franchise QB you like just as much to fall into your lap. I'm not sure how you get a franchise QB you love without taking any risk. Even if you "earned" the #1 pick, you're franchise is still banking on the success of that guy for the next 3-5 years at least. Manning's a big risk too. If RB3 is a bust, well, a new regime will have to try again in 2014 or 2015. If you really like him but pass him up, maybe you don't even get your hands on another franchise QB you like as much until 2014 or 2015 anyway. So the net effect of playing it safe could end up being the same as an RB3 bust - unless you have some kind of plan to get a QB you like more than him. I'd lean towards taking big shots at QBs you really believe in. Last edited by molson : 03-12-2012 at 09:34 AM. |
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03-12-2012, 11:32 AM | #390 | ||||
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I enjoyed this critical take on the trade from a guy I used to listen to when I lived in the area (admittedly over the top).
Czabe.com: Desperados This line got a laugh: Quote:
Here's a comparable review of other big trades for a top pick at QB: http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2012...-of-the-draft/ Last paragraph summary: Quote:
The author responded to a point made by another person that this is a different era now: Quote:
Response: Quote:
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03-12-2012, 12:05 PM | #391 |
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Is Matt Ryan a good floor scenario for this deal (not saying they're comparable players, just in terms of success)? While the jury is still out on Ryan, he seems to be right below that line of a franchise QB. So if Griffin's first few years mirror Ryan's, is it a good trade or bad?
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03-12-2012, 02:04 PM | #392 |
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Vikings retain backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels | ProFootballTalk
So Rick Spielman is still in love with Sage Rosenfels. Maybe one day he'll start to have a thing for good QBs. |
03-12-2012, 02:14 PM | #393 | |
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Last edited by NorvTurnerOverdrive : 03-12-2012 at 02:15 PM. |
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03-12-2012, 02:16 PM | #394 |
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Per Schefter
Cowboys lose $10 million in cap space, Redskins lose $36 million in space. Can split it over 2012 and 2013 any way they want. More at ESPN. All this was over them front loading deals to circumvent the rules during the uncapped year. |
03-12-2012, 02:21 PM | #395 | |
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He wasn't even good enough for the Dolphins ... And I don't think he's thrown a pass since 1954. |
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03-12-2012, 02:24 PM | #396 | |
This guy has posted so much, his fingers are about to fall off.
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Talk about good timing! No one found this until over the weekend or something?
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03-12-2012, 02:25 PM | #397 | |
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03-12-2012, 02:32 PM | #398 |
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this may actually save the redskins from stupidly overpaying vincent jackson.
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03-12-2012, 02:35 PM | #399 |
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All the teams but Oakland and New Orleans get 1.6 million in cap space because of the Skins/Cowboys per Schefter.
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03-12-2012, 02:37 PM | #400 | |
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Why in the world would you want him as a third QB instead some developmental QB? Are they going to try and trade Webb and use him as a backup maybe? |
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