Werewolf CLXVII - The Wheel of Time - Game Over

[path12]

Now I'm rethinking my strategy of a wolf on the back end of the EF vote. timmae's vote makes sense as defensive and cheekimonk hasn't said anything that strikes me as off.

[Coffee Warlord]

I need to get a vote in within the hour. Not entirely sure where the value is right now.

[path12]

Just because I'd like to hear more from them:

VOTE VAIMES

[Shoveler]

Day 2 Vote

cheekimonk [3] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), The Jackal (350)
Grover [3] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310)
The Jackal [1] -Glengoyne {313)
Timmae [1] - Vaimes (212)
Britrock88 [1] - Zinto (322)
Vaimes [1] - path12 (353)

[The Jackal]

I saw Raven lurking before, curious to hear some input there. Vaimes too.

[Coffee Warlord]

Hey Autumn, you're missing a timmae vote for Grover in there. Last page.

[Zinto]

Well since Narcizo left and I thought that Grover was still voting for him but isn't I will....

[Zinto]

Unvote Brit

[Grover]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Hey Autumn, you're missing a timmae vote for Grover in there. Last page.

Shh.

[Grover]

Not a huge deal, but I will be away from roughly 4:30 EST to 7:00 EST.

I'll be back then to make a final vote, read through, banter, etc etc

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Grover

Shh.

We live by the law, we die by the law!

[Coffee Warlord]

I'd like to see a third candidate go up here.

[timmae]

Not having a single cast vote from Raven is worrisome. Not sure why he wouldn't have been replaced by now if he hasn't been checking in. I haven't seen this type of play go so late into day 2 but some of the vets may have better takes on this than I.

[Coffee Warlord]

Has he checked in at all?

[Glengoyne]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I'd like to see a third candidate go up here.

This is where I am now. I'm guessing, willing to risk rather, that Jackal isn't both Red and Black, but I'm not sure where to move the vote at this point.

I too will need to get a useful vote in in the next hour or hour and a half. I'm hoping to hear from some of the quieter folks in that time frame.

[Coffee Warlord]

And...since my availability becomes spotty until very close to deadline in about 30 minutes...

I still sort of feel Grover is a good candidate to lynch. That said, we can save that for later, maybe. We don't need a two horse race in day 2, and that's where we are headed. Thusly...I bring you Plan B.

Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)

That's the ending tally yesterday. I'm throwing out the EF vote from yesterday - there's no way all the wolves piled onto one person. I like looking at the Also Rans, particularly on day 1.

If we take a very VERY liberal assumption that Jackal is good. We have one confirmed villager voting for Jackal in font.

We have one confirmed villager in EF voting for Timmae, and a guy I thus far feel okay about in Rum. Vaimes has been too idle to know anything about right now.

That brings me to Martin and Zinto. Neither of them have (in our whole 1 day of incredibly useful information!) made me feel remotely warm and fuzzy, but then, nobody really does. They're both in nicely easy places for a wolf to dump a day 1 vote. That said...

Vote MartinD

[timmae]

Originally Posted by Raven

fyi I am catching up now.
May be an hour before I know what's going on, but I am here.

This is Raven's only post... I am neutral on him right now but we need to hear more. Raven, please post your thoughts on the first 2 days when possible.

[timmae]

I'll be afk for a bit while I commute home... I'll be back on before lynch.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Has he checked in at all?

He checked in earlier today. He's around. I think he's catching up, as I don't think he noticed the game start yesterday.

[Raven]

Sorry guys, I checked on this every day last week and Sunday night, and it hadn't started yet. Of course the game starts on the day I don't check (yesterday), so I am a day behind. I've read all the posts and am caught up, but work has been extremely busy today, so I haven't been able to really put time into any analysis yet. I'll have some input shortly.

[Chief Rum]

I'm going to piggyback on CW's look at the secondary candidates, and some assumptions we often make about wolves splitting votes and what not, but instead of going with the timmae voters, I will look at The Jackal voters.

Besides, while I get CW's reasoning, I don't view the MartinD vote as a good one to start up, given he is like Narcizo (in Europe) and unlikely to be around until after the deadline.

So looking at The Jackal's Day 1 voters, font was a villager, which leaves Zinto as the possible "wolf" in that scenario. I don't get a bad vibe from Zinto, but I'm not really getting a bad vibe from hardly anyone, so that doesn't really matter.

VOTE ZINTO

[Vaimes]

Sorry, project deadlines are approaching. You know how college life is.

Commencing catch-up.

[Shoveler]

Day 2 Vote

cheekimonk [3] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), The Jackal (350)
Grover [3] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310)
The Jackal [1] - Glengoyne {313)
Timmae [1] - Vaimes (212)
Vaimes [1] - path12 (353)
MartinD [1] - Coffee warlord (366)
Zinto [1] - Chief Rum (371)

[Glengoyne]

UNVOTE Jackal


So I'm backing off of the Jackal because the reveal seems genuine, and I'm following CW's lead here

Vote MartinD

[Glengoyne]

Hey a lot can happen when you take 15 minutes to type a three line post.

[Raven]

Just wanted to point out the voting changes once the voting got established...

Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
EagleFan [4] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153)
Grover [3] - Zinto (106), path12 (147), cheekimonk (155)
The Jackal [2] - Coffee Warlord (94), EagleFan (158)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Zinto unvote Grover, vote The Jackal

Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
EagleFan [4] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153)
The Jackal [3] - Coffee Warlord (94), EagleFan (158), Zinto(160)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), cheekimonk (155)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

cheekimonk unvote Grover, Vote EagleFan

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk(163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
The Jackal [3] - Coffee Warlord (94), EagleFan (158), Zinto(160)
Grover [1] - path12 (147)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Coffee Warlod unvote The Jackal, vote Grover

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk(163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
Grover [3] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170), Coffee Warlord
The Jackal [2] - EagleFan (158), Zinto(160)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

font unvote Timmae, Vote The Jackal
EagleFan unvote The Jackal, vote Timmae

Both font and EF were good, so their votes don't mean much here. But they simply swapped votes anyway, so the counts remained the same.

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190)
The Jackal [2] - Zinto (160), fontisian (182)
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)


9:00 on the nose
Zinto unvote Jackal vote timmae
This would have made it a tie. In some games it seems that posting on the nose counts, but in this game it does not. So Zinto's vote did not count.

Which would have made it ...
EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [5] - vaimes (83), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151), EagleFan (190), Zinto
Grover [2] - path12 (147), Coffee Warlord (170)
The Jackal [1] - fontisian (182)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

[britrock88]

(Caught up to here, taxiing for takeoff. See you folks in a couple hours--if my phone battery holds out.)

[Chief Rum]

Really uncomfortable with the MartinD run on so little.

Remember, he's not around until after the deadline. If he is going to be a candidate, I think we should wait until tomorrow when he can chime in and defend himself. I don't want to risk that he might have an important role and not be around to reveal to save himself.

[Chief Rum]

Well, just to clarify, all of our guesses have very little evidence to back them up. I'm just saying maybe we should consider people who will be around these last few hours if we're going to consider third candidates.

[Glengoyne]

And I'm out for a while as well. I've got folks coming over for boardgames today. So I'll be spotty through the end of the night. I'll check back between games.

Tomorrow will be bad as well, we're taking the kids on a train ride up to Sacramento. So It will be inconvenient all day.

[Coffee Warlord]

Ah, I never remember that Martin isn't around in evenings.

With that in mind, I'd be okay with moving on Zinto as well.

[Coffee Warlord]

Though, there he is!

[Raven]

Day 1 Vote

Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
EagleFan [4] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153)
Grover [4] - Zinto (106), EagleFan (141), path12 (147), cheekimonk (155)
The Jackal [1] - Coffee Warlord (94)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Yet to Vote: Glengoyne, Raven

EagleFan unvote Grover, vote The Jackal "Going with a hunch here"
Chief points out that he is "putting himself in danger here". Which he is because he is pitting himself vs Timmae and undoing the 3 way tie.

Zinto unvote Grover, vote jackal says "he will follow EF's hunch"
Cheeki unvote Grover, vote EagleFan "I've heard this tune before"

Day 1 Vote

EagleFan [5] - britrock88 (96), Narcizo (113), The Jackal (148), timmae (153), cheekimonk (163)
Timmae [4] - vaimes (83), fontisian (84), Chief Rum (135), MartinD (151)
The Jackal [3] - Coffee Warlord (94), EagleFan (158), Zinto (160)
Grover [1] - path12 (147)
Vaimes [1] - Grover (110)

Yet to Vote: Glengoyne, Raven

Coffee Warlord "Well, this ain't disturbing at all"
"Well, easy way to find out if that means anything. We got enough for a late run?"

Coffee Warlord Unvote Jackal, Vote Grover



I'm skeptical of Coffee Warlord at this point. Yesterday after Zinto and cheeki unvoted Grover and moved to someone else, he says "Well, easy way to find out if that means anything. We got enough for a late run?" and votes for Grover. Today he says "I still sort of feel Grover is a good candidate to lynch. That said, we can save that for later, maybe. We don't need a two horse race in day 2, and that's where we are headed. " and votes MartinD. Leaving things at...

cheekimonk [3] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), The Jackal (350)
Grover [3] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310)
The Jackal [1] - Glengoyne {313)
Timmae [1] - Vaimes (212)
Vaimes [1] - path12 (353)
MartinD [1] - Coffee warlord (366)

Anyone else find this odd?

[Coffee Warlord]

I find it to be completely in line with my lines of thinking.

[Raven]

Why? If you suspect him, why wait? What's the point?
You seem to be wasting your vote on MartinD when you already suspect Grover and Grover was at the time tied for the lead.

[Coffee Warlord]

Because I don't believe cementing a 2 horse race on Day 2 is a great idea. I figure it's better to try and get a 3rd person going and see what happens.

Yes, I stll think we get good info in killing Grover. But if we go that route, I'd rather it came with 2 other candidates, not just 1.

[Raven]

vote Grover

[Vaimes]

So Jackal claims that he happens to be in the same clan/group-thing as the dead Seer, and everyone suddenly backs off. Hm.

A Seer typically doesn't get a N0 check, yes? I see people speculating about that but no one knowing for sure, though it sounds like you've played with the role before. So that's a thing.

I think cheekimonk is town, I can go back and find the post that pinged me if anyone wants to see it but right now I can't be bothered.

Unvote
Vote Grover

[Raven]

btw, while I'm confused by CW's actions, if he is indeed protecting Grover then my vote for Grover is just as effective as voting for CW.

[Coffee Warlord]

Dance, puppets, dance!

[Zinto]

I probably don't move off Grover if I am a wolf. What is the point? It is much easier to stay put and draw no attention to myself.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

unvote Brit
Vote cheeki

Just as guilty of taking the easy route and hasn't explained like Brit did.

I made sure to explain all of my votes yesterday and have been analyzing the game since. If you mean today, I parked my vote this morning and have had meetings this afternoon, but I was very active analyzing the game this morning. I even claimed my faction for whatever that's worth. Maybe I'm misunderstanding "easy route"? Still feeling my way through this...

[Zinto]

I am about to vote for Cheeki but I am going to reread his posts first. It is turning into a mini runaway on Grover and I don't see any reason for that to be the case

[Shoveler]

Day 2 Vote

Grover [5] - cheekimonk (258), MartinD (259), timmae (310), Raven (387), Vaimes (388)
cheekimonk [3] - britrock88 (248), Narcizo (340), The Jackal (350)
MartinD [2] - Coffee warlord (366), Glengoyne (374)
Vaimes [1] - path12 (353)
Zinto [1] - Chief Rum (371)

[Zinto]

It is closer than I thought it was. For some reason I thought Vaimes was on Cheeki before switching to Grover

[Zinto]

Vote cheekimonk

[Zinto]

Nothing about cheekimonk's posts swing me one way or another. I would rather make this close heading down the stretch and see where the chips fall.

[cheekimonk]

Well, I wasn't 100% sold on Grover but I'm blocked onto him now.

[Zinto]

For meta reasons Martin and Vaimes get a pass from me today. This is the first game I have played with them(their first games?) and as much as I would like to see more posts from both of them I am willing to give them today as they get into the swing of things.

[timmae]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

I made sure to explain all of my votes yesterday and have been analyzing the game since. If you mean today, I parked my vote this morning and have had meetings this afternoon, but I was very active analyzing the game this morning. I even claimed my faction for whatever that's worth. Maybe I'm misunderstanding "easy route"? Still feeling my way through this...

Cheeks... I missed this. What did you claim? Working off of smartphone at the moment.