Werewolf 108, The Gang Wars of 1929 GAME OVER - North Siders Win

[Chief Rum]

Ouch, bad loss.

[DaddyTorgo]

damnit!!!

[PurdueBrad]

I just realized that I should try to get thoughts out pre-night actions just in case. Working on it now, should have it up.

[EagleFan]

Crud, so much for my read on things as Lathum would have been my vote today (unless something drastic popped up). I guess I should have stuck with my day one thoughts on him.

[EagleFan]

vote Danny

Going on gut here.

[PurdueBrad]

Kind of going gut too, but let me throw out some important things I've picked up from the last day or so:

Lathum- Questioned the KWhit-CrimsonFox relationship on D1. CF has since been shown to be good, so is this a non-issue?
Discussed and suspected Autumn and DT's votes that then ended up elsewhere. Had some back and forth with DT.
Saved by EF day one but EF voted elsewhere D2.

CF- Observed the quiet nature of J23 and Danny. Both have been very quiet. Also wondered about Telle and DT for votes.

7 players (6 alive) have voted known villagers both days: Telle, Danny, DaddyTorgo, Chief Rum, RealDeal, KWhit, and Lathum.

PB: Vote history doesn't concern me as much but I would assume that there is likely a wolf in the above grouping. I really am curious who the wolves went after last night because I think Lathum's death, although hurts us, hurts them as well as he's a controversial figure. The DV death and whoever last night was, could give us some info.

I'm looking back through but right now based on both a lack of traction last night and some of the interaction with Lathum (and some gut), I'm starting

vote DaddyTorgo

[Danny]

My gut was right about Lathum, not sure where Im going today at this point.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

My gut was right about Lathum, not sure where Im going today at this point.

So that's why you went after him for the night kill?

[Autumn]

While obviously losing a bodyguard is tough, getting the wolves to knock off one of the key people in two day's voting is great. It gives us a scan like result (and hopefully not a duplicate one).

We now know Willie Marks made the kill last night, for whatever that's worth. It might be helpful down the line somehow.

It would be interesting to try to figure out who Lathum would have been guarding.

[Autumn]

1 - CrimsonFox - Danny (77)
5 - Passacaglia - PurdueBrad (43), Telle (78), DaddyTorgo (86), EagleFan (115), Lathum (117)
1 - Telle - Poli (51)
4 - Lathum - CrimsonFox (81), Chief Rum (87), RealDeal (93), KWhit (113)
1 - Chief Rum - Darth Vilus (62)

Did not vote: J23, Passacaglia, Autumn (unvoted to avoid tie)

Day 2

Final vote count

6 - CrimsonFox - KWhit (201), Telle (224), Lathum (227), Poli (229), Danny (273) DT (313)
3- Lathum - Chief Rum (185), EagleFan (192), RealDeal (244)
3 - DaddyTorgo - Autumn (195), J23 (232), PurdeBrad (256)

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Autumn

We now know Willie Marks made the kill last night, for whatever that's worth. It might be helpful down the line somehow.

It would be interesting to try to figure out who Lathum would have been guarding.

Two things from this:
1- The fact that Willie Marks is in the game makes me assume four wolves rather than three. If there were three, he's the one I probably would've left off but that also is just a matter of opinion honestly.

2- I'm still going back through Lathum's posts to see if he points anything out about who he protects because I agree, that could be important if we can pin it down.

[Autumn]

Clearly voting history isn't going to tell us anything much as we've had essentially villager run offs both days. This will be a game to go by post analysis and gut.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Clearly voting history isn't going to tell us anything much as we've had essentially villager run offs both days. This will be a game to go by post analysis and gut.

Autumn, is your opinion that wolves would lay off in that situation OR be spread out among the lynched?

I'm going to quote your above post but add in the pre-switching craziness count (I think you did) from day 1 just to see what is there.

[Autumn]

This makes EagleFan's moves a little less suspicious, knowing that CF and Lathum are both good. Could be just an honest villager, or could be a cunning hoping to act a little suspicious.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Autumn, is your opinion that wolves would lay off in that situation OR be spread out among the lynched?

I'm going to quote your above post but add in the pre-switching craziness count (I think you did) from day 1 just to see what is there.

I would think they'd just play it relaxed, vote wherever they normally would. It seems less likely they'd make a bold move like EF did at the end, unless they were the cunning.

Lately in games we've seen things like all the wolves on one target even though it was a villager runoff, so I don't think we could predict where they were.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Just for information's sake, this was the vote before the craziness started.

4 - CrimsonFox - EagleFan (38), Lathum (54), Danny (77), KWhit (88)
3 - Passacaglia - PurdueBrad (43), Telle (78), DaddyTorgo (86)
1 - Telle - Poli (51)
4 - Lathum - Autumn (67), CrimsonFox (81), Chief Rum (87), RealDeal (93)
1 - Chief Rum - Darth Vilus (62)

Yet to vote: J23, Passacaglia

Day 1 final

1 - CrimsonFox - Danny (77)
5 - Passacaglia - PurdueBrad (43), Telle (78), DaddyTorgo (86), EagleFan (115), Lathum (117)
1 - Telle - Poli (51)
4 - Lathum - CrimsonFox (81), Chief Rum (87), RealDeal (93), KWhit (113)
1 - Chief Rum - Darth Vilus (62)

Did not vote: J23, Passacaglia, Autumn (unvoted to avoid tie)

Day 2

Final vote count

6 - CrimsonFox - KWhit (201), Telle (224), Lathum (227), Poli (229), Danny (273) DT (313)
3- Lathum - Chief Rum (185), EagleFan (192), RealDeal (244)
3 - DaddyTorgo - Autumn (195), J23 (232), PurdeBrad (256)

As I said before, I'm not sure how much there is to glean from the counts but movement may show something.

[PurdueBrad]

For movement sake:
EF jumps from CF to Passacaglia
KWhit jumps from CF to Lathum
Lathum jumps from CF to Passacaglia
Autumn jumps from Lathum to unvote

That's some rough vote movement IF those are all villagers above.

[Danny]

Generally when you have a villager-villager run off, the wolves try to avoid the late movement and are more likely just to stick with their vote. I think that adds some trust to EF and Kwhit for now. Autumn not necessarily as he may have just been breaking the tie to look villager friendly.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Clearly voting history isn't going to tell us anything much as we've had essentially villager run offs both days. This will be a game to go by post analysis and gut.

Voting history is always a valid thing to look at, even when the wolves do some things crazy things or there hasn't been a wolf on the block, there is the opportunity to choose based on actions that are generally less or more likely to come from a wolf.

Doesn't mean that should be 100%, but just going by the hip and all from gut generally results in a villager loss.

[Danny]

Just as an example, even in the last game in which the wolves did something very rare, MartinD was the key. If the villagers had stuck to the plan to out the warlock and realized the warlock had his vote stuck on a fellow wolf, it would make sense for other wolves to vote there as well to gain trust. There is always patterns and percentages to be found.

[Danny]

What we know from day 1 is this, a wolf was never in any danger at all. I really do think that if EF or Kwhit were wolves, their vote just stays where it was. I will definitely not be voting for either of them.

I also still lean towards DT being good.

We also know that the first two votes of day 1 were EF and Crimson. The others with early votes who stuck were PB, Poli, Danny, Telle and Autumn (who I am including because his vote at the end may have just been breaking the tie). My vote will definitely be going to someone in that group.

[Danny]

From day 2, I think there's a good chance there is a wolf on DT, they killed Lathum and arguments have been presented to focus on those who have voted two known villagers, a move the wolves caused themselves by killing Lathum.

Two of the three from that list are also on my list from day 1, PB and Autumn. For now, I will give Autumn the benefit of the doubt for his tie breaking switch and go with PB today.

Vote PurdueBrad

[Poli]

Totally frustrating. I don't feel im voting DT at this point...I wasn't set to vote lathum either...so there goes that.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

From day 2, I think there's a good chance there is a wolf on DT, they killed Lathum and arguments have been presented to focus on those who have voted two known villagers, a move the wolves caused themselves by killing Lathum.

Danny, your vote for me is fine because it still feels a hell of a lot like day 1, but I don't believe I ever put forth an argument regarding those that have voted for two known villagers. Am I misreading or are you putting words in my mouth (although could be better than blue Jolly Rancher!)?

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Danny, your vote for me is fine because it still feels a hell of a lot like day 1, but I don't believe I ever put forth an argument regarding those that have voted for two known villagers. Am I misreading or are you putting words in my mouth (although could be better than blue Jolly Rancher!)?

I wasn't saying you, just that those arguments have been presented and it's logical to do so even by a villager, so I don't necessarily think those that that presented that are automatically wolves. The point I was trying to make is the possibility of looking at that was caused by the wolves and is not something that should be overlooked.

[Danny]

Because generally speaking it's not a bad idea to look at those who have voted for known villagers multiple times in this situation, it's just that usually that is caused by successive lynchings and not a wolf night kill. That leans me more to vote for someone who does not have two known villager votes.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Kind of going gut too, but let me throw out some important things I've picked up from the last day or so:

Lathum- Questioned the KWhit-CrimsonFox relationship on D1. CF has since been shown to be good, so is this a non-issue?
Discussed and suspected Autumn and DT's votes that then ended up elsewhere. Had some back and forth with DT.
Saved by EF day one but EF voted elsewhere D2.

CF- Observed the quiet nature of J23 and Danny. Both have been very quiet. Also wondered about Telle and DT for votes.

7 players (6 alive) have voted known villagers both days: Telle, Danny, DaddyTorgo, Chief Rum, RealDeal, KWhit, and Lathum.

PB: Vote history doesn't concern me as much but I would assume that there is likely a wolf in the above grouping. I really am curious who the wolves went after last night because I think Lathum's death, although hurts us, hurts them as well as he's a controversial figure. The DV death and whoever last night was, could give us some info.

I'm looking back through but right now based on both a lack of traction last night and some of the interaction with Lathum (and some gut), I'm starting

vote DaddyTorgo

You may be referring to the above post I guess although that argument isn't mine (a combination of a Lathum post and a CF post I believe), but that is not why my vote went to DT nor did I make any attempt to forward it other than to say my gut says that among those 6 of 11 remaining players there is likely a wolf. I think that's a safe assumption given the odds but hell, the wolves could lay off like last game too.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

I wasn't saying you, just that those arguments have been presented and it's logical to do so even by a villager, so I don't necessarily think those that that presented that are automatically wolves. The point I was trying to make is the possibility of looking at that was caused by the wolves and is not something that should be overlooked.

Ahhhhh, my bad, I misunderstood that then. No, I agree, although I thought from the write-up that Lathum wasn't the target? Do you know something otherwise?

[Danny]

My reason for voting you isn't really based on that post. It's based on your early and unchanged day 1 vote and your day 2 vote for DT. You are a member of both groups (as is Autumn), so I was going to choose one of you.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

...they killed Lathum and arguments have been presented to focus on those who have voted two known villagers, a move the wolves caused themselves by killing Lathum.

This is what I'm referring to when I ask above if you think Lathum was the target btw.

[KWhit]

Since we don't really have much to go on yet, I think I'm going to place a vote on Poli. I didn't really care for his "vote for the top (or bottom, in this case) person on the list strategy because that seems like an easy way for a wolf to hide a vote and make it meaningless for analysis.

Totally subject to change if someone comes up with any decent theories, but I don't have any yet.

VOTE POLI

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

My reason for voting you isn't really based on that post. It's based on your early and unchanged day 1 vote and your day 2 vote for DT. You are a member of both groups (as is Autumn), so I was going to choose one of you.

And I'm fine with that, just clarifying.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Ahhhhh, my bad, I misunderstood that then. No, I agree, although I thought from the write-up that Lathum wasn't the target? Do you know something otherwise?

Well that would throw off my argument some if that's the case. I didn't actually read the write up, so let me go check.

[PurdueBrad]

Let me compare it to day 1, I read it (and I think a few others did) the same way.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Capone has decided to get to this sorted out as quickly as possible. He is going to meet with the mayor at a location in Cicero, deep in the Oufit's territory. He is a bit jittery about being exposed while waiting, but his best bodyguard, Frankie Rio, is nearby.

Capone and Rio turn around sharply when they hear tires squealing. Francis Cavanaugh stands out of the window of the vehicle with a tommy gun and releases a clip aimed right at Capone.

Rio somehow manages to get in front the bullets aimed for the boss. Capone and his men rush Rio to the hospital, but he does not make it. Frankie Rio was Lathum.

The boss mourns.

So here is the post. This does not make it clear whether or not Lathum was the intended target; however, I actually think this is just added flavor and does not mean Lathum was not the target.

The reason is this, the write up talks about going after Capone, GE would not give away that the wolves had correctly targeted Capone or not. I think this was just added flavor.

[PurdueBrad]

Then that changes me going back and reading a bunch of Lathum's posts. Comparing it to day 1 though, I would argue the opposite flavor-wise.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Danny

So here is the post. This does not make it clear whether or not Lathum was the intended target; however, I actually think this is just added flavor and does not mean Lathum was not the target.

The reason is this, the write up talks about going after Capone, GE would not give away that the wolves had correctly targeted Capone or not. I think this was just added flavor.

That's the way I read it too (that Lathum was the target), but I'm not sure.

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

You are all sitting around the Lexington Hotel when you hear the commotion. Capone is storming around, cussing at anyone in ear range. He is upset that one of his best men, Darth Vilus, was gunned down last night. The rumor on the streets is that Bugs Moran himself did the killing.

Capone's pissed and he is out for blood today.

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Capone has decided to get to this sorted out as quickly as possible. He is going to meet with the mayor at a location in Cicero, deep in the Oufit's territory. He is a bit jittery about being exposed while waiting, but his best bodyguard, Frankie Rio, is nearby.

Capone and Rio turn around sharply when they hear tires squealing. Francis Cavanaugh stands out of the window of the vehicle with a tommy gun and releases a clip aimed right at Capone.

Rio somehow manages to get in front the bullets aimed for the boss. Capone and his men rush Rio to the hospital, but he does not make it. Frankie Rio was Lathum.

The boss mourns.

Everyone else died away from 'action' (lynches too) but there is a difference.

GE, can you tell us whether or not this was a "save" by the bodyguard? I read it as it was but it could be flavor.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

While obviously losing a bodyguard is tough, getting the wolves to knock off one of the key people in two day's voting is great. It gives us a scan like result (and hopefully not a duplicate one).

We now know Willie Marks made the kill last night, for whatever that's worth. It might be helpful down the line somehow.

It would be interesting to try to figure out who Lathum would have been guarding.

Actually, we know Cavanaugh is in the game, not Marks, and can be reasonably certain that Lathum was the target last night, unless there are rules to bodyguarding that are not for public knowledge and that differ from the standard BG role.

GE specifically states it is Cavanaugh who does last night's kill.

Marks' role suggests that Rio would not be killed in the role of protecting someone else unless Marks himself is the targetman. In other words, let's say Rio was protecting Capone, and Capone was targeted by the wolves, the way I read the rules, Rio would thwart the attack of any wolf--and learn their identity--unless it is Marks doing the attacking. If Marks attacks, he will fail to kill the target--but will kill Rio instead.

Now, we know Rio was killed and that he was doing his BG work at the time, but we also know Cavanaugh did the killing, not Marks. So that tells me that Rio was always the target, not Rio's protectee (presumeably Capone).

This is actually very interesting. Coming off of last night's lynch, Lathum was clearly under suspicion. He had two days in a row of close lynches. Any normal wolf group would have not targeted Lathum, because they expect him to be lynched. And yet they did. This tells me one of two things (and possibly both); 1) Lathum dropped a hint or hints as to his role and the wolves picked up on it; and/or 2) Lathum was close to the mark on his suspicions of who the real wolves were.

I actually lean to #2 and not #1. Reason being, if the wolves knew Lathum was Rio, wouldn't they have sent Marks to be sure? But they didn't; they sent Cavanaugh.

That tells me Lathum may have been hot and heavy after a wolf or two in his posts yesterday. We may want to review them carefully to see who would be most interested in him leaving the game.

The writeup also presents us with another issue: how much of it was flavor and how much of it was exactly as stated? Lathum was protecting Al Capone last night--according to GE's writeup. If Capone were the target, it makes sense to name Capone in the writeup here. But the rules seem to state this was a hit on Lathum/Rio. GE could just as easily have written a piece about Rio dying that didn't involve Capone or any protectee.

So my question for GE: Is Capone's inclusion in the night kill writeup just flavor? Or is that a moderator statement that Lathum was specifically protecting Capone?

And we better hope that I have the right read on this (Lathum was the target). Because if the wolves somehow actually did target Capone and this was the result--than they now know who Capone is. And we don't have a BG to stop them.

[Chief Rum]

lol...okay, so you guys figured this all out from the time I started typing until I hit Submit Reply? Feh...

[Danny]

The post also says Cavanaugh was the shooter and not Willie, so that would make it impossible for Lathum to have died in place of someone else.

I think the post is 100% flavor actually, but even if you give it a lot of weight, it does not give evidence for Lathum dying because he protected someone that Willy tried to kill.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

And we better hope that I have the right read on this (Lathum was the target). Because if the wolves somehow actually did target Capone and this was the result--than they now know who Capone is. And we don't have a BG to stop them.

I doubt this very much, it doesn't add up. Either the post was 100% flavor if to be followed you/we are right and the wolves simply killed Lathum since Cavanaugh was the shooter.

[PurdueBrad]

Ahhhh, never mind then. Well then I'm in the same camp as CR. Killing Lathum makes no sense then because he's a lightening rod for controversy. I would suspect then he may have been close to something. Looking at his list of suspects, I'll happily stay where I'm at.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Ahhhh, never mind then. Well then I'm in the same camp as CR. Killing Lathum makes no sense then because he's a lightening rod for controversy. I would suspect then he may have been close to something. Looking at his list of suspects, I'll happily stay where I'm at.

And if he suspected Autumn it may be enough for me to switch over there instead of you since you both are on my "list" .

[Chief Rum]

If Capone's inclusion is just flavor, that would help a lot. Although if Lathum was targeted, even then, the wolves still wouldn't know who Capone is. My problem there, though, is if it's not flavor, that means Lathum really was protecting Capone. And if he was, that means he knew who Capone is, which means Capone gave something away--and that's something the wolves could find, too. I hope our Capone has been careful.

Danny, do you agree that it would have made sense for the wolves to send Marks if they knew Lathum was Rio? What do you think of my supposition that the wolves sending Cavanaugh after a likely lynch target suggests that Lathum was correctly on the tail of at least one wolf in his posts yesterday?

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

And if he suspected Autumn it may be enough for me to switch over there instead of you since you both are on my "list" .

Really glad I'm on your "list." By that, I'm sure you mean, "The Nicest Guys Playing and I Want You Around For End Game List" and not the "I Want to Lynch You List".

[Chief Rum]

Ah ha, we seem to be cross posting some of the same thoughts.

[Danny]

From the way I read Lathum's role, he may be able to just say "protect Capone" without having to know who he is.

I don't think Capone has gave anything away and honestly, while he is Capone, he is not our seer, so not as huge of a thing.

I think the wolves may have killed Lathum for the reason you mention about him being on to something. I also think they knew he was a likely scan (which I brought up as being a good idea to scan him which I shouldnt have and hopefully the seer did not listen to me), so may have killed him to waste a scan.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Really glad I'm on your "list." By that, I'm sure you mean, "The Nicest Guys Playing and I Want You Around For End Game List" and not the "I Want to Lynch You List".

You are on my list for this part. You also are nice enough as a wolf to let me live to day 3 for a change

[PurdueBrad]

Originally Posted by Danny

You are on my list for this part. You also are nice enough as a wolf to let me live to day 3 for a change

Didn't I kill you day one last game?