2014-2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

[miked]

Yeah, so I guess this is basketball. Tank for the final year and then go in to the new stadium by signing a bunch of dudes. A pretty nice FU to all.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by miked

Tank for the final year and then go in to the new stadium by signing a bunch of dudes. A pretty nice FU to all.

Basically. Two years of suck to... what, start over with the new stadium in Cobb County? What kind of plan is that?

[cuervo72]

I must be letting my FOBL strategy get to me, because I am surprised the Nats would give up Tyler Clippard for Yunel Escobar. I guess 2B was problematic (to say the least) for the Nats, but Clippard was pretty darned solid.

[claphamsa]

unless Escobar is terrible he is more valuable than clippard. as solid as he was...he was an 8th inning guy, and they are just not THAT valuable, especially when they make 10M a year.

[cuervo72]

An inning is an inning, in my book. But I'll grant that he's only going to give you 70-80 of them.

[MikeVic]

Has this been discussed here before?
Milwaukee Brewers offer 'Timeless Tickets' - ESPN

Initially I thought it was an interesting idea, and you'd also get some sort of priority to the games since you spent $1000 for a ticket (and it looks like you get another nine regular season tickets too). But then there's the quote:

"I can't promise that we'd be able to accommodate a person who calls up on the morning of Game 7 of a World Series, but we'll try."

And that makes it seem like a pretty stupid thing imo, am I missing something? Or is $1,000 for essentially 10 tickets alright I guess?

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Has this been discussed here before?
Milwaukee Brewers offer 'Timeless Tickets' - ESPN

Initially I thought it was an interesting idea, and you'd also get some sort of priority to the games since you spent $1000 for a ticket (and it looks like you get another nine regular season tickets too). But then there's the quote:



And that makes it seem like a pretty stupid thing imo, am I missing something? Or is $1,000 for essentially 10 tickets alright I guess?

If I lived in the area and my family were big Brewers fans (not sure if such a things exists) I'd jump on this. Imagine being a grandpa, giving this as a present on the birth of your grandson. It becomes something like a combination family heirloom / lottery ticket.

[cartman]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

If I lived in the area and my family were big Brewers fans (not sure if such a things exists) I'd jump on this. Imagine being a grandpa, giving this as a present on the birth of your grandson. It becomes something like a combination family heirloom / lottery ticket.

Until the kid destroys his first bike by trying to put it in the spokes to make it sound like a motorcycle

[stevew]

A WS ticket is like 900 bucks on average, so by the time the Brewers get back there it will probably be like $7000

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

espn says Gattis to Houston for three "prospects"

Paper bag time in Atlanta draws closer & closer

I understand the feeling for the offseason as a whole, but I think this was a solid deal and aren't sure why you put prospects in quotes. Both Foltynewicz and Ruiz are well regarded, and if you don't think Gattis can play catcher he's a pretty horrible LF'er and 1B is locked up.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I understand the feeling for the offseason as a whole, but I think this was a solid deal and aren't sure why you put prospects in quotes. Both Foltynewicz and Ruiz are well regarded, and if you don't think Gattis can play catcher he's a pretty horrible LF'er and 1B is locked up.

Prospects in quotes since the word gets tossed about quite a bit, with wildly varying outcomes. "Prospect" is frequently a more polite word for "suspect".

As bad as Gattis could be in LF, he's also overwhelmingly the best option the club had for the job.

He's also one of the very few players on the roster anybody actually gave a shit about, on a team that seems intent on providing virtually no reason for anyone to care that they exist for an indeterminate period of time.

I'm trying to remember the last time a trade was this poorly received by the fans in Atlanta. The Murphy deal is probably the benchmark for outrage, this certainly doesn't approach that level but it's the most I can recall in quite a while.

[Ramzavail]

4) The Indians re-signed 3B Lonnie Chisenhall ($2.25 million) and Ps Carlos Carrasco ($2.3375 million) and Marc Rzepczynski ($2.4 million) to 1 year contracts, to avoid salary arbitration, and signed P Anthony Swarzak to a minor league contract.

I don't understand the math here. How does Rzep get more in arbitration than Carrasco or even Chissy? Is it bc of that bloated Zach Duke contract?

[Ramzavail]

CHISENHALL
YEAR AGE TRAA RCAA FRAA OBA SLG OPS OWP RC/G AVG HR RBI SB G TEAM
2012 23 2 2 0 .311 .430 .741 .546 4.79 .268 5 16 2 43 Indians
2013 24 -9 -9 0 .270 .398 .668 .382 3.36 .225 11 36 1 94 Indians
2014 25 7 14 -7 .343 .427 .770 .603 5.25 .280 13 59 3 142 Indians
CAREER 1 4 -3 .310 .417 .727 .515 4.44 .260 36 133 7 345
LG AVG 0 0 0 .316 .400 .716 .500 4.31 .253 32 128 19

CARRASCO
YEAR AGE RSAA ERA G GS IP SO SO/9 WHIP W L SV NW NL TEAM
2011 24 -9 4.62 21 21 124.2 85 6.14 1.36 8 9 0 7 10 Indians
2013 26 -15 6.75 15 7 46.2 30 5.79 1.76 1 4 0 1 4 Indians
2014 27 18 2.55 40 14 134 140 9.40 0.99 8 7 1 10 5 Indians
CAREER -17 4.30 88 54 372.1 304 7.35 1.33 19 26 1 21 24
LG AVG 0 3.90 372.1 302 7.31 1.30 21 21

RZEPCZYNSKI
YEAR AGE RSAA ERA G GS IP SO SO/9 WHIP W L SV NW NL TEAM
2012 26 -2 4.24 70 0 46.2 33 6.36 1.35 1 3 0 2 2 Cardinals
2013 27 2 3.23 38 0 30.2 29 8.51 1.21 0 0 0 0 0 Cardinals/Indians
2014 28 5 2.74 73 0 46 46 9.00 1.33 0 3 0 2 1 Indians
CAREER 9 3.77 277 23 310.1 286 8.29 1.35 9 20 0 14 15
LG AVG 0 4.07 310.1 251 7.27 1.32 17 17

[Easy Mac]

Per John Hart

We may not be the prettiest girl at the dance, but we’re going to be a lot of fun to dance with

So the Braves will be the ugly team everyone else enjoys having a turn with.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Ramzavail

4) The Indians re-signed 3B Lonnie Chisenhall ($2.25 million) and Ps Carlos Carrasco ($2.3375 million) and Marc Rzepczynski ($2.4 million) to 1 year contracts, to avoid salary arbitration, and signed P Anthony Swarzak to a minor league contract.

I don't understand the math here. How does Rzep get more in arbitration than Carrasco or even Chissy? Is it bc of that bloated Zach Duke contract?

Well, keep in mind, those aren't arbitration achieved figures, but negotiated deals. Who knows what reasoning there is between the Indians and the agents of these players for the money figure they landed on?

[Ramzavail]

Right, hindsight is 20/20 and nobody is in the room comparing teammate salary arbitrations. But Carrasco had an awesome season and Rzep pitched 40 innings. I guess it just looks odds when you look at them after they are signed.

[kingfc22]

Giants signed Nori Aoki for 1YR/$4.7M.

Adds depth to the OF, albiet where we have zero power, for not much money compared to what everyone else is being paid this FA period.

[claphamsa]

the nats have signed everyone but Blevins pre arb now. 7.4 for strasboug, and 11.4 for fister

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Ramzavail

Right, hindsight is 20/20 and nobody is in the room comparing teammate salary arbitrations. But Carrasco had an awesome season and Rzep pitched 40 innings. I guess it just looks odds when you look at them after they are signed.

Rzep is 2nd time arb eligible and the other guys are first time eligible. So that's why there is such a difference.

[Ramzavail]

Originally Posted by stevew

Rzep is 2nd time arb eligible and the other guys are first time eligible. So that's why there is such a difference.

that makes sense.

[kingfc22]

David Price going to make nearly $20M this season.

David Price of Detroit Tigers agrees to one-year deal for $19.75 million - ESPN

[stevew]

I'm somewhat excited about the Pirates getting Kang signed. I doubt that he will be much more than a utility infielder but I think there's a lot of upside there for 11million. If he is successful, the deal could be a really big steal.

[JPhillips]

I love that he measures himself by whether or not he can hit Chapman.

[lungs]

Rangers look to be getting Yovani Gallardo.

[ISiddiqui]

While the US was distracted by football, did THIS just fucking happen?!

Max Scherzer closing in on new multiyear contract - ESPN

Free-agent pitcher Max Scherzer has agreed to a seven-year contract with the Washington Nationals, a source confirmed Sunday night to ESPN.com's Jim Bowden.

Oh, Holy shit.

[Shkspr]

We must have missed Dan Snyder's purchase of the Nats.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Someone needs to give Salvy a new off-season hobby.

Royals catcher Salvador Perez is already in Arizona (and misses Lorenzo Cain) | The Kansas City Star

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Dola

Good summary of what the Royals have adjusted in their 25 man roster. Nearly half of the salary increases were for the big 3 in the bullpen.

Where the money went: Royals’ opening-day payroll for 2014 vs. 2015 | The Kansas City Star

[claphamsa]

I guess this means Zimmermann is gone.... shoulda spent the same money on him instead of Sherzer....

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I guess this means Zimmermann is gone.... shoulda spent the same money on him instead of Sherzer....

Sounds like Strasburg is the one on the way out from what I've read today.

[claphamsa]

reading around, it seems they are talking of keeping all of them...just in case.

[stevew]

15m a year for 14 years. You'd think MLB would be concerned by such significant deferrals.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by stevew

15m a year for 14 years. You'd think MLB would be concerned by such significant deferrals.

I don't see why. It's creates an advantage for the owners as it lowers the true value of the contract.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I don't see why. It's creates an advantage for the owners as it lowers the true value of the contract.

Ask the Mets how Bobby Bonilla worked out.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Ask the Mets how Bobby Bonilla worked out.

We can use BP's MIT grad Zachary Levine's take on the Bonilla contract:

While we’re on the subject of laughing at a team, naturally we can’t finish a discussion of time value of money without a Bobby Bonilla mention. Bonilla was owed $5.9 million for the 2000 season, but instead, he got $1.19 million every year from 2011 to 2035. That series of payments nominally $1.19M x 25 = $29.75M, discounted back to 2000 at 10 percent, would be worth $1.32 million in 2000 or less than a quarter of what Bonilla was actually owed for that season. The Mets did fine.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Atocep

I don't see why. It's creates an advantage for the owners as it lowers the true value of the contract.

I'm speaking merely from whomever ultimately is responsible for paying the deferrals. Is the current group setting up an annuity of sorts and funding it today. Or is it just being thrown into a future bill. It just seems like a really bad practice to start because it could get out of control if the Gnats are able to do something similar with Desmond, Harper, Strasburg and Zimmerman.

[stevew]

Dola,
as a Pirates fan I'm hoping we get creative and try to extend Cutch ASAP

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

We can use BP's MIT grad Zachary Levine's take on the Bonilla contract:

Interesting, although 10% seems high for discounting - I always thought 7% was closer to the long-term average.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by stevew

I'm speaking merely from whomever ultimately is responsible for paying the deferrals. Is the current group setting up an annuity of sorts and funding it today. Or is it just being thrown into a future bill. It just seems like a really bad practice to start because it could get out of control if the Gnats are able to do something similar with Desmond, Harper, Strasburg and Zimmerman.

I think MLBPA needs to be educating its players on this more than MLB needs to worry. This is just going to go be passed on to the next ownership group as an added cost. The players need to understand that they're greatly devaluing their contracts by signing deals with huge amounts of deferred money. The $50 million signing bonus offsets a lot of that for Scherzer, but that isn't going to always be the case.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Interesting, although 10% seems high for discounting - I always thought 7% was closer to the long-term average.

It's from the article laying out how good the Stanton deal was for the Marlins.

But for the sake of getting to the point, we’ll use a rate of 10 percent, which is almost exactly the geometric average annual return of the S&P 500.

[cartman]

Call JG Wentworth, 877 cash now

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

It's from the article laying out how good the Stanton deal was for the Marlins.

It's been a decade since I've done annuities or time-value of money, but that completely ignores downside risk. And that's not just a hypothetical risk - between March 2000 and March 2011 instead of gaining the 159% that formula assumes, the S&P 500 actually lost ~14% of it's value, and the Wilpons went (almost completely?) broke.

And actually I think his numbers may be off even using his 10% rate of return. $1.19m in 2011 divided by 1.1^11 (2.59) comes out to having a year 2000 value of about $460k. 2012 $379k, 2013 $345k, 2014 $313k - that's already $1.51m of Year 2000 value, with 21 more years to go. $1.19m in 2035 only comes out to having a year 2000 value of only $42k, but there's still 20 years that'll add up. Overall, yeah, the Mets weren't hosed like people assumed, but IMO no way did they come out as far ahead as he says (paying less than 25% of present day value.)

[cartman]

Originally Posted by lungs

Rangers look to be getting Yovani Gallardo.

The deal finally went through. Gallardo to the Rangers for 3 minor leaguers.

[kingfc22]

So Scherzer is not getting paid for the next 14 years. Rather the final 3 years of his contract will be at a nice $35M/yr clip.

Max Scherzer pact with Washington Nationals -- Gets $35M per last 3 seasons - ESPN

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

So Scherzer is not getting paid for the next 14 years. Rather the final 3 years of his contract will be at a nice $35M/yr clip.

Max Scherzer pact with Washington Nationals -- Gets $35M per last 3 seasons - ESPN

The wording is confusing, but I don't think that's what it says. According to that, he'll "only" actually get $7.14m in those 3 seasons (1/7th of his $50m signing bonus).

Max Scherzer will be paid a salary of $35 million per year in each of the final three seasons of his contract with the Washington Nationals -- except all $35 million will be deferred without interest, according to a source familiar with the contract.

The contract calls for Scherzer's salary to be $10 million in 2015 and $15 million in each of the next three seasons. It then jumps to $35 million a year in 2019, 2020 and 2021, the seasons in which his deferrals kick in. In addition, Scherzer's $50 million signing bonus will be spread out over the life of the contract.

Sources have previously indicated that the $105 million in deferred money will be paid out through 2028.

[ISiddiqui]

Well, aside for the...

The contract calls for Scherzer's salary to be $10 million in 2015 and $15 million in each of the next three seasons.

edit: drat... beaten

[ISiddiqui]

I will say deferring all that money is absolutely brilliant by Washington. I'm not sure how they got Scherzer to agree... well, unless they saw the total number and their eyes sparkled, not realizing that money paid later on will be worth far less than money paid today.

[lungs]

What are people's thoughts on eliminating defensive shifts? Not a big fan of the idea, teams should be able to deploy defenders wherever they wish.

[claphamsa]

how could you make that against the rules?

[kingfc22]

Who's bringing this idea of banning shifts up? Owners? I haven't heard about this one yet.

Would be absurd to make that a rule.